now that could, in theory, put a lot of the $40 billion magnetic disk industry out of business. Q It is clear that two applications are highlighted for expected short-term commercial use
Charles Lieber's group 14 Cientifica is the business information and consulting arm of CMP Cientifica, providing global nanotechnology business intelligence and consulting services to industry and investors worldwide.
During these few years Nantero received a rather extensive media attention (37 articles in total) from technology as well as business journals.
and Business administration with a specialisation in Small Business and Entrepreneurship, both from the University of Groningen, The netherlands.
and it is geared to satisfy the real estate demands of citizens, business and institutions. The value chain is kept under surveillance by a continuous feedback process.
as well as in governance and business models. The second set of findings shows the advisability of reinforcing foresight tools to make them more attractive and reliable for urban planners.
Unlike other disciplines, such as economics and business science, scenario planning is not very common In law. This kind of narrative exercise tends not to be very appealing to the legal mind,
Finally, Futurict will also build a‘‘Global Participatory Platform''in order to support the decision making of policy makers, business people and citizens,
In a second step, these roadmaps shall be adapted to the business culture of small and medium enterprises (SME.
and too much of a business-as usual mentality (Hames 2011b). He, therefore, suggested making more use of approaches that allow for exploring such levels of thinking.
'which regards the identity of the components of the business (micro) environment. Vecchiato distinguishes between‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change
Cagnin and Loveridge focus on innovation networks by suggesting a dynamic framework of continual learniin that enables a business to develop a capacity to anticipate
using FTA thinking to shape a pathway of a business towards sustainable development. The objective of the framework is to help organisations create a tailored,
and can always be managed as a fixed cost of doing business. True uncertainty, in contrast, emerges
Knight maintained that most business decisions are made in unique contexts that make statistical inference impossible and
itwas marketed mainly for business use. Itwas often understood either as a newform of telegraphy or as a broadcast medium.
In this regard, there is no difference between, for example, business organisations and biological organisms. Profitability may be a boundary condition for survival for business firms in modern capitalism,
and where many different business models and ecosystem may succeed. Although the Bergsonian élan can be rather opportunistic, at social and cognitive levels,
Harvard Business Review (January February: 43 53. Bowker, G, . and S l. Star. 1999. Sorting things out:
Similarly, any business has a certain momentum that will ensure its continuity for an uncertain time into the future in the absence of some new
and rejuvenating feature to its business endeavour and sphere. Rejuvenation creates the need for new artefacts to sell into existing or new markets;
but above all else to ensure successful continuity of the business based on securing future profits and a strong share price.
Again particular kinds of expertise are needed based on the three components of foresight that run throughout the business's activities,
which the business has either strong or weak interdependencies or interlocking arrangements of a quite different character (Cagnin and Loveridge 2012).
business government and elsewhere, is already possible but limited by human and search engine factors. Data mining is far from a new idea, the possibilities
large and small, relating to Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 767 long-term directions of change in the business environment.
based on intellectual property, for business growth and business advantage. Ozcan Saritas is a Research fellow at Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR) in Manchester Business school, UK.
Business planning for an uncertain future. Newyork: Pergamon Press. Cagnin, C. H, . and D. Loveridge. 2012.
A business framework for enabling networks to evolve towards sustainable development. Technology analysis & Strategic management 24, no. 8:
Copernicus Books, Springer Science+Business Media. Cooke, R. M. 1991. Experts in uncertainty: Opinion and subjective probability in science.
Business studies have developed a set of techniques to assess the future for strategic decisionmakkin (Kappel 2001;
Roadmapping integrates business and Technology research Technology management 40, no. 5: 48 55. Guice, J. 1999. Designing the future:
Improving the business impact of foresight. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 337 49. Salo, A a. 2001.
in order to match uncertainty in its business environment and thus prepare at its best for the future.
'which regards the core identity of the components of the business (micro) environment. We then distinguish between‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change
who argued that the business environment of the firm is inherently unstable and this instability creates uncertainty for rationally bounded managers who are not able to fully collect, process,
which the firm has direct contact and that directly affect business strategy, day-to-day operations, and goal attainment.
The strategic management theory expands the concept of task environment by defining the broader concept of business micro environment
and technological (PEEST) landscapes that surrooun the business micro environment and today are referred commonly to as the business macro environment (Fahey and Randall 1998).
Strategic foresight: practices and techniques The challenge of coping with increasing uncertainty encouraged new analytical approaches to decision-making and long-range planning:
(and the different kinds of uncertainty conditions) a firm might face in its business environment. We thus aim at investigating the suitability
matching the right anticipatory approach with the specific conditions of uncertainty a firm is facing in its business environment is an essential condition
Firm Business Foresight activities started Philips Consumer electronics Early 1990s BASF Chemicals Mid-1990s Daimler Automotive Late 1970s Siemens Consumer Products,
we analysed the foresight activities of each firm in relation to uncertainty and drivers of change in its business environment and the use of strategic foresight in decision-making.
and articles and prior studies in the business press and scientific journals. Second, company archives such as internal memos
and the overall chemical industry and subsequently elaborating regional and business scenarios in relation to each specific geographic and business area of the firm.
and Asia) and countries, by breaking down global scenarios into the firm's main sectors and business areas,
These country and business scenarios derive from a more focused analyssis which considers a larger set of framework variables,
but much shorter for sector and business scenarios. Daimler has developed also a scenario-based system
and mobility business and are carried out at a global level or for a specific region over a 10 15-year perspective.
These scenarios aim to figure out the likely evolution of main business segments of the firm,
and potential business areas and for assessing investment (and divestment) decisions for Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 789 expanding
(or downsizing) operations in the main business and geographic areas of the firm. A notable corporate-level example has been the decision to withdrawfrom the pharmaceutical industrry Notwithstanding the positive outlook of both demography and demand growth,
Future pharmaceutical R&d activities also promised to require huge investmennts so implying that resources had to be shifted from other, more attractive, business areas.
At business and operational levels, strategic foresight supports the definition of target features for enhancing products and services,
which progresssivel links macro drivers of change with specific management objectives and business issues. The outputs from foresight activities provide a wide basis of information which explores longaan medium-term changes in customers'needs and lifestyles,
as major changes in technologies and ensuing customer demand are again continuously scrambling the boundaries of the business.
These different pieces of insight are matched finally through an interactive process that brings the social researchers from Philips Design and the technologists from Philips Research together with the business managers from all the product divisions of the company.
to provide a comprehensive vision of the future evolution of the firm business environment, in a procees that guarantees that all view points (people,
technology, and business) are taken into account. Foresight activities usually cover a 10-year time horizon, while emerging trend investigations are scheduled yearly to fit in with the annual strategy calendar.
where a specific research unit (an‘Innovation Field')has been established for each of the company business segments.
and storage and started to develop and to experiment with innovative product concepts in all its business divisions.
Initially, one of the company business groups is targeted as the‘buyer'for a specific market opportunity,
and if an innovative idea does not‘fit'with an existing business group, it is allocated to the‘Siemens Technology Accelerator'(part of the Corporate Technology Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 791 division),
Most business groups also have their own venture activity groups, which cooperate in the experimentation and development of innovative ideas, newproduct concepts, and prototypes.
All the firms of our sample were able to detect promptly the key drivers of change in their business.
this regards the impact of drivers of change on the identity of the main activities of the value chain and the main components of the business (micro) environment, that is, rivals, suppliers, customers, substitute products,
The key drivers of change for example, rise of new rivals from emerging countries and financial crisis had relevant consequeence on the evolution of the main components of the business (micro) environment and thus on the organisation.
these drivers of change did not affect either the identity of these components or the identity of the main activities of value chain of the chemical or the automotive business. 6 Over the last two decades,
who from the beginning has full awareness about the rules of the game and the cards in the pack (i e. boundaries of the business identity of the key components of the industry).
drivers of change in the consumer electronics business of Philips (or the broader ICT business in the case of Siemens) affected the identity of the main components of the micro environment itself and thus brought about‘boundary'uncertainty.
Who is in the business? How can a firm create and capture value? By using the previous analogy of a card game,
operating in the consumer electronic business in the 2000s could be compared to the case of a player who still has to learn both the rules of the game
and enhance the traditioona identity of the main components of the business micro environment, leading to incremental developments in the value chain, products, and services.
(and needed to know) about the boundaries of their business. Given their prior experience in the chemical and automotive industries,
they were able to directly address uncertainty regarding the evolution of the main components of the business and the impact on the organisation (effect uncertainty) and the best options for coping with these drivers (response uncertainty).
suppliers and customers thanks to our long experience of the chemical business, we engaged in anticipating the likely structure of the industry
managers at Philips and Siemens had to address the crucial task of identifying the new boundaries of their business.
which help managers to figure out the (new) identity of the main components of the business micro environment and the new activities (and products and services) of the value chain.
A senior manager of Philips emphasised In our business foresight must address an essential prerequisite before using traditional techniques like scenarios:
and the new players who are entering the business. Only after that boundary uncertainty has been solved
and‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change and we thus improve our understanding of the different kinds of uncertainty a firm may face in its business environment.
The definition of the boundaries of the business serves exactly to fix the key decisions for future growth,
mature industries might also be affected by technologgica discontinuities bringing about major shifts in the boundaries of the business.
and how to renew managerial beliefs about the boundaries of their business. Notes 1. Relevant examples are GBN (Global Business Network) in the USA
and EIRMA (European Industrial research Management Association) in the European union. 2. A significant number of managers of the firms we studied pointed out that they had great difficulty in finding
what matters (compared with wild cards) is the nature of their impact on the boundaries of the business. 7. Of course,
and bringing about major shifts in the boundaries of the business. What we mean is that, in the last two decades,
Improving the business impact of foresight. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 337 49. Roveda, C, . and R. Vecchiato. 2008.
Integrating the future business environment into innovation and strategy. International Journal of Technology management 34, nos. 3 4: 278 95.
Harvard Business Review 63, no. 5: 73 90. Wiltbank, R.,N. Dew, S. Read, and S d. Sarasvathy. 2006.
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnin a b & Denis Loveridge c a DG Joint research
Cristiano Cagnin & Denis Loveridge (2012) A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 797-820, DOI:
8 september 2012,797 820 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnina, b*and Denis Loveridgec adg Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective and Technological
cmanchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR), Manchester Business school, University of Manchester, UK This paper suggests a dynamic framework of continual learning to enable a business to develop a capacity to anticipate
using future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking to shape the business's path towards sustainable development. The proposed framework has been devised to enable a firm to become a participant that helps shaping the path to a common vision within its network being flexible enough to adapt to the changing circumstances of the environment and of its relationships.
Embedding FTA within the proposed management dynamic framework enables business networks to develop their sympoietic system capability, through interactions and inclusive dialogue,
thus contributing to a business's successful continuity. The sustainable development of a business depends on the integration of sustainable thinking into mainstream decision-making and core operational processes:
this differs from the triplebotttomline approach (Elkington 1998.**Corresponding author. Email: cristianocagnin@gmail. com ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715488 http
Hence, business sustainability evolves from the linear concept of a value chain introduced by Porter (1985) or the current paradigm of supply chain management or value nets (Bovet and Martha 2000a, 2000b, 2000c, 2000d, 2000e.
and identify sources of interrelationships between business units (O'sullivan and Geringer 1993). Developments in this approach,
In this paper, a new concept of networked sustainability (Cagnin 2005) is introduced as an evolution of the value Net value is redefined to be a triple-bottom-line balance of the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within a business's network:
In this context, Section 2 outlines that current models responsible for moulding a business's competitive advantage sustainably are weak in the nature of stakeholders'involvement in strategic partnerships.
with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 799 represented by a triple-bottom-line balance or the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within the network.
and what roles can FTA play as well as how the network value activities ought to evolve in time to shape business sustainability?
In Section 4, the value-creating activities managed across a business network are linked to the ability of a network to self-organise:
and reporting of the activities that each enterprise believes are needed to achieve an enhanced triple-bottom-line business performance.
Each of the most used business sustainability tools (Appendix 2) is allocated according to the four main functions that the tool can perform inside companies and the six dimensions of sustainability.
so that they can be translated further into their core business operations. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 800 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 1. Existing tools and their relation to the PDCA cycle.
PDCA cycle and Life-cycle Management system analysis ISO 14001 AA 1000 SIGMA Decide to be in business Environmental policy definition P Design the business Objective
and scope Planning Planning Planning D Run the business Inventory analysis Implementation and operation Accounting Delivery C Monitor the business Impact evaluation Verification and corrective action Auditing
review and report A Sustain the business Interpretation Critical analysis by leadership Embedding Leadership and vision Source:
as well as monitoring the business and its stakeholders'performance. Operation performance: verifying and reporting the business performance improvement through established and specific indicators
so that one can redefine its strategy and shape a new plan for the next cycle of improvement.
which describes the layer behind business management systems. The continuous improvement cycle found in the PDCA is the key process for driving learning and innovation in an organisation.
to enable business networks 801 Figure 1. Business sustainability activities model. Source: Cagnin (2005. development and delivery of responsible products and services across the network throughout their life cycle.
Figure 1 depicts the business's Activities Model and shows the main value-creating activities that a business needs to sustain it in the long term.
These activities require capabilities that are intrinsically complex and interdependent: these must be learnt and practised simultaneously across the network.
These are assumed to be critical to a business's sustainable Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 802 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge development,
3. 2. Basis for the management framework and roles that FTA can play The proposed management framework aims to support the achievement of a business with aligned socioeconomic environmental performance across its network that helps firms develop a participaativ process throughout to shape a common vision of sustainable development
enabling the design of the necessary actions to achieve the desirable future (how things ought to be done according to the business's and its networks'vision).
to enhance and enable a business to sustain competitive advantages and follow its path to sustainable development.
Rather than looking for one generic business model for sustainability firms should work out their own model that brings new opportunities through dialogue
Hence, firms should use the evolutionary lessons as a main step in integrating sustainable development into the business model.
The management framework is also based on a broad management system that can be applied to any business, based on the PDCA cycle.
and attach concrete meaning and actions to the business's values (Giversen 2003). Trust must be achieved by developing the confidence of all parties in every link of the network's intent and behaviour (Lund 2003.
to enable business networks 803 The development of effective and lasting partnerships is critical, requiring a common identity (a true feeling of who‘we'are as partners as well as of who each actor is as individuals)
Management system FTA roles Decide to be in business FTA supports mutual learning and shared understanding of network actors'views and feelings as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes, all of
and coordinate resources Design the business FTA as a source of strategic intelligence provides insights into possible and desirable directions
and resources to be prioritised Run the business FTA creates spaces for experimentation, learning and mutual appreciation, for the development of new or improved linkages and networks,
and new knowledge are combined Monitor the business FTA PROCESSES lead to an enhanced responsiveness of the network,
and new configurations Sustain the business FTA enables the network to continue to exist in the long run by enabling it to behave as a complex living system as actors interact
Dynamic and complex business networks are not of this kind, since they are always organisationally open, or partially so,
to enable business networks 805 Foresight cannot remove the uncertainties any business faces and actually invests in:
Foresight can also expose a range of equally likely paths into the future that may permit more insightful decisions to be made by a business.
Once foresight has provided insights into possible business directions, forecasting and technollog assessment are essential associates, both
Both forecasting and technology assessmeen provide a more factual and numerical understanding of a business's financial and technical risks
and does contribute to a business's successful continuity. FTA cannot remove the uncertainty that surrounds its contribution to or nature of sustainable development in the wider context of its supporting network and society as a whole.
heavily dependent on the flow of ideas, data and information into a business and its network decision-making in its place in society.
The aim of the Maturity Model is to shape a possible business path towards sustainable developmment outlining how the network value activities ought to evolve in time to shape business sustainability.
Consequently, a business can build a tailored, common strategy throughout its network of relationships: it may also influence partners in their progress towards higher levels of sustainable development.
The design of the Sustainability Maturity Model is founded on universal principles as well as the maturity of behaviours that can lead to the development of a mature business throughout its network of relationships (Cagnin 2005)
and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 806 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 3. Business sustainability maturity model.
but not in alignment with business target (to gain operational efficiency)- Supporting mechanisms are informal,
to enable business networks 807 Partnerships-Selection driver is price-Hierarchical structure-Functionally driven-Competition among partners-Selection driver is delivery-Matrix structure where partners interact
and business efficiency-Information strategic resource-Training and education-Quality of transferable knowledge is predicted Information flow free and a common base of knowledge in the net maximises individuals'learning and creativity Communication
to enable business networks 809 a high-performance partnership where all parties feel motivated both as individuals
and interactions required to allow business networks to behave as sympoietic complex systems. In this context and according to Hock (1999), enterprises must be able to combine, with harmony, order and chaos, competition and cooperation,
The information and knowledge which are shared throughout the business networks can lead to the networks'adaptation and evolution,
These might be the necessary characteristics to enable actors within business networks to perform at higher levels
which can support firms through the process to shape business sustainable development throughout their networks of relationships.
Table 4 highlights the main processes involved at each stage of the broad business management system (Appendix 4
and shows the necessary activities and the interrelationships that need to be managed systemically to shape business sustainability.
to enable business networks 811 Table 4. Business sustainability management framework. s e i t i v i t C a-b U s s e i t
i v i t C a s e g a t S Stakeholder participation Based on Inclusive Dialogue and Continuous learning enabled through FTA Decide to be in business Defining
alignment definition and review Design the business Defining and reviewing the strategy to implement the vision of sustainability Strategy Strategic and tactical planning definition and review Partnerships Partnerships selection;
legal Run the business Implementing the vision of sustainability Business Sustainability Maturity Model Business Path to Sustainability Comparing present performance (as it is) with the business
in order to keep the firm on track of its designated vision Monitor the business Collecting and monitoring relevant information to keep the business on track of its vision of sustainability Strategy Performance, environment, capabilities, constraints, opportunities,
and changes and improvements possible Partnerships Partnerships selection; building; and leveraging Motivation Motivational channels and processes selection;
performance reporting Sustain the business Achieve the identified vision of sustainability and giving subsidies for the creation of a new vision Verify
what is involved in managing a business towards sustainable developmmen within the Brundtland criteria (Brundtland 1987).
and interactions to take place across business networks to support effective decision-making: this is paramount. Consequently, firms will be enabled to anticipate
In this context, the kind of dialogue required across a business network demands the inclusiiv participation of governments and overall societies,
and practice in RTDI (Research, Technollogy Development and Innovation), business strategy and sustainability, environment management, cleaner production and foresight.
large and small, relating to long-term directions of change in the business environment. He has negotiated technology licences
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to enable business networks 815 Verweire, K, . and L. V. Berghe. 2003. Integrated performance management:
to enable business networks 817 Appendix 2. Existing business sustainability tools and research outcomesdimensions of sustainability Institutional-Business activities Economic Environmental Social Political Spatial Cultural Strategy Principles and Values Visions Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed
Business Business Business Business Business Business Sustainability Sustainability Sustainability Sustain. Sustain. Sustain. Concept Concept Concept Concept Concept Concept AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 OECD guide
OECD guide OECD guide OECD guide OECD guide CRT OECD CSR OECD CSR OECD CSR Lisbon CRT UNGC Lisbon Lisbon
and essential to achieve a cooperative and systematic network Strategy It is the business commitment with a set of principles, values and policies
share and disseminate the business values and indicators along the network and thus create individual and cooperative competitive advantages Operation The business principles
and values throughout the network are expressed through its operations. The business values reflected in its operations are
what demonstrate the firm's ability to act responsbility and ethically. Hence, values are seen as a strategic tool to align all activities along the network
to enable business networks 819 Appendix 4. Business broad management system Stages PDCA Cycle Meaning Stakeholders Participation Based on Inclusive Dialogue
and Continuous learning through FTA Decide to be in business It is the stage of thinking
whether or not to be in business (changes needed) according to competitive and environmental changes and the range of feedback the firm is able to build.
which should be agreed commonly with the business network partners. Design the business P It is the process of planning how the business must be shaped in roder to achieve the vision of sustainability via the definition of a strategy
and necessary targets to be met. It aims to build the expected future by designing how the business strategy will be implemented.
Run the business D It is to implement the defined strategy and its designed plan every day.
It becomes essential to compare the actual results (the way it is now as it is) with the expected ones (the way the organisation wishes to be as it ought to be), through a feedback process,
Monitor the business C It is to monitor all necessary information of how the business is running
Sustain the business A It is developed a process by every day activities. It depends of being able to meet everything that was defined in the earlier plan stage
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