Nabeel Rahal is a business intelligence researcher and analyst in the Business Development and Corporate Partnerships Center at Sandia National Laboratories.
and ponder whether it is going to continue with business as usual, try modest renovations, or change its logic completely.
is a partial structural openness that endorses flexibility in responding to the systemic flows, such as changes in the business environment or in the customer's innovation processes.
BAU, business as usual. macro-scale societal phenomena (drivers and megatrends. It should be noted that the differences between the technology space
business perspective Network roadmapping Roadmap for developing capacities for a network or a cluster Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces depends on the specific aims of the process Making business decisions on the basis
and it emphasises the business perspective. The roadmap aims to develop capacities for a network or a cluster,
The aim is to endorse business decisions on the basis of roadmapping. The fourth scope is systemic II
The aim of the process was to form an outlook of development directions in building services, its research needs and business potential to the year 2020 (Paiho et al. 2007.
The second workshop considered the future markeets business potential, and actors in the sector of building services.
Service Science and Business network: strategy space and social/actor space, RD II scope Our second example applies roadmapping in the context of an organisational development process aimed at establishing a service research network at VTT.
Service research is an emerging field of research requiring cooperation across disciplines and the varied lines of business.
In order to create the Service Science and Business (SSB) network, foresight and organisational learning methods were integrated in a workshop process.
and to foster business decisions based on a novel‘service perspective'formed in the process (Myllyoja, Wessberg, and Pajakkala 2012).
and 10 companies represented the business network. The construction machinerywas defined as machines, tools, and equipment that are used on the building site for making end-products and for providing different repair tasks and related services.
and to come up with related business decisions. The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 5. In the strategy space,
The second phase, the SWOT analysis, identified trends in the national ICT business and research environment in the four Nordic countries.
either from the perspective of business or governance, requires integration of competencies over the traditional sectoral boundaries.
Her educational background is in business management. Her research relates to future-oriented technology assessment and innovation studies. Her special interest lies in enhancing innovations provoked by societal concerns for the well-being of the ageing society and for cleaner environment.
Linking technology resources into business planning. International Journal of Technology management 26, no. 1: 12 9. Geels, F. W. 2004.
Linking technology resources to business objectives. Cambridge: University of Cambridge. http://www. ifm. eng. cam. ac. uk/ctm/publications/tplan/trm white paper. pdf (accessed August 18, 2009.
and/or business management leverage points enhance the prospects of success? If possible, it can also be valuable to obtain the views of the participants on impact assessment:
and openly pursuing business opportunities. Figure 2 also shows notable governmental and competitive factors. The recent upsurge in support for renewable energy promotes solar cell initiatives.
and those discussed in the business-oriented literature identifies possibly important actors in the DSSC arena.
but has not been mentioned frequently in conjunction with business actions (Factiva database. Dainippon Printing is extremely active in patent families
an especially useful analytical step is to profile their R&d and business activity in detail. Using Vantagepoint and MS Excel,
and business activity compilations, one can enable social network analyses within and among organisations. 4. 4. Determine potential applications (Step E) We introduced a new technique called‘cross-charting'to explore the links from technological attributes (e g. particular nanomaterials or nanostructures and particular technical advances) to functional
Journal of Business Chemistry 7, no. 1: 15 30. Jacobsson, S. and A. Johnson. 2000.
Participants included citizens, researchers, business persons, and public officials from each region. This study aims to provide an initial platform on which the people in each region deepen their own independent discussions about their future vision.
and cross-cultural cooperative management 11-C Service management, management in the education and research field, environment business management, governmental institution management 11-D Framework for facilitation
and similar strategy processes into research policy making and research infrastructure creation. 2. Lessons from earlier work The challenge of transferring foresight results into strategic planning is well known in a business context.
They describe how a business can become more and more receptive to foresight results, and how the necessary changes can be captured
Cagnin, C. and Loveridge, D. 2011),‘A business framework for building anticipatory capacity to manage disruptive and transformative change and lead business networks towards sustainable development,
Technological development and Innovation (RTDI) programmes hitherto has focused on economic competitiveness in an increasingly globalised business environment.
business sensitive information on external scientific or technological threats, opportunities, or developments that have the potential to affect a company's competitive situation.
or company moves that represent potential business, threats or opportunities; 2. to evaluate new products,
Technical intelligence for Business, Batelle Press, Columbus, OH. Ashton, B. W.,Johnson, A. H. and Stacey, G. S. 1994),‘Monitoring science and technology for competitive advantage'',Competitive intelligence Review, Vol. 5 No. 1, pp. 5-16.
and business strategy'',Management Science, Vol. 32 No. 10, pp. 1231-41. Barney, J. B. 1991),‘Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage'',Journal of Management, Vol. 17 No. 1, pp. 99-120.
the key to R&d'',Journal of Business strategy, Vol. 15, pp. 10-12. Kayal, A. 1999),‘Measuring the pace of technological progress:
Drivers of change and sudden disruptive transformations range from profound technological changes, emergence of new business models and major economic restructuring, environmental disruptions, to shifts in social norms, values and lifestyles.
and that is a major benefit for decision-makers, be they directors of research institutes, deans and rectors of universities, business people, or policy-makers.
social and business innovation simultaneously supported by political will. Furthermore, 5 and 13 underline the ongoing need for the greater involvement of stakeholders who can introduce necessary capabilities
and practice in RTDI (Research, Technology development and Innovation), business strategy and sustainability, environment management, cleaner production and foresight.
He has masters in business economics and in marketing, and has worked previously in innovation policy, regional economic policy, project management and market research.
and to make business decisions. Usually, patent application activity is tracked as a TLC indicator for the S-curve analysis 10,12, 13.
Index number of items in databases such as U s. patents Number of items in databases such as Newspaper Abstracts Daily Issues raised in the Business
. 2. 1. 2. Assignee Some business software, such as Patentex and Webpat, has adopted assignee numbers to develop an S-curve.
are useful metaphors in the realm of economics, business and technology assessment. But few people realize that the inverse is also a common usage:
It was not until the 1970s that the Volterra Lotka equations have found numerous applications in the world of business
business or politics (as in the case of globalization) or restricted to more scientific discussion rounds (the case of complexity),
Manag. 7 (1995) 417 431.50 J. W. Forrester, Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1961.51 J. D. Sterman, Business Dynamics:
Econ. 61 (2007) 115 128.24 J. Forrester, Principles of Systems, Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, MA, 1968.25 J. D. Sterman, Business Dynamics:
and by widening the perspectives and knowledge base of researchers, policy-makers and business decision-makers. -be useful in creating a common language and understanding between the various interest groups.
Section 3 describes how we conceptualize inspiring issues and paradigms from different scientific disciplines such as business and innovation research, futures studies, sociology and policy analysis.
in order to create new business opportunities. This stresses the importance of stakeholders as sources of innovation. The required characteristics of the new mode of public involvement are challenging:
The new agenda for business. WBCSD (2010) Vision 2050: The new agenda for business. World Business Council for Sustainable development, Washington.
Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available at http://www. wbcsd. org/web/vision2050. htm. 441 P. De Smedt et al./
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 References 1 C. Harries, Correspondence to what?
R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, K. Van der Heijden, The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures
Ted Fuller is a business academic and currently Director of research for the Faculty of business and Law at the University of Lincoln (UK).
When investigating new patterns of innovation INFU was focussing on fundamental transformation in the way innovation is organised in business, public sector and society 16.
daily newspapers with a business focus, magazines with a technological, business, or innovation focus and websites as well as blogs on innovation and research.
The second powerful strand has been a package of measures designed to reinforce research business linkages,
As indicated above there has been a steady increase in the application of criteria of relevance and impact, particularly but not exclusively in terms of working with business.
Interestingly, these difficulties in the political and public spheres are less evident in the private sector where business,
He is active in policy advice to governments and business and as Vice-president for Research and Innovation at the University of Manchester.
While the technology assessment crowd and the small but regularly present business oriented strategy practitioners voiced worries about the‘‘scientific''legitimacy and practical effectiveness of the at times open ended and exploratory nature of thinking about the future.
and business questions as they arise, without systematizing the knowledge accumulated into the kinds of sense making frameworks that enable researchers and policy makers to share,
deviant opinion on business, scientific, or political issues is associated with personal antipathies. In societies that have more uncertainty avoidance,
A technology foresight programme was established with the centre-left government's 2000 business development strategy 30. The strategy contains the following statement:‘.
'1 Hence, technology foresight was seen to be part of the government's business policy and not, in particular, part of science policy,
and the project was placed initially in the then Danish Agency for Business Development. A pilot programme for foresight was launched early in 2001.
who were leading figures in business, labour market organisations, universities and the government. The Prime minister was Chairman of both the Committee of Ministers and the Council for Globalisation,
and the Minister on Economics and Business affairs served as Vice-chairman of the Globalisation Council. The latter also held the position as Vice-Prime minister in the twopaart coalition government.
and after each meeting, a press conference was held by the Prime minister and the Minister of Economics and Business affairs (chairman and vice-chairman of the Globalisation Council, respectively.
The initiative should identify the research needs created by societal and business developments as well P. D. Andersen,
new perspectives, Asia Pacific Business Review 16 october (4))(2010) 493 504.23 P. A. Hall, D. Soskice, Varieties of Capitalism:
Denmark in the Global economy, Working papers, vol. 18, International Center For Business and Politics, Copenhagen Business school, 2005.26 R. Popper, How are selected foresight methods?
Cooperative Strategies in International Business Joint ventures and Technology Partnerships Between Firms, 2nd ed.,Pergamon, Amsterdam, 2002.20 C a. Bartlett, S. Ghoshal, Managing Across Borders the Transnational
The two issues are FTA in a business context and FTA on Higher education. The objective of the first was to collect knowledge,
'degree of newness/innovativeness and degree to which some players in the digital TV business were already working on the idea at hand.
content providers), hardware development, distinguishing characteristics, business models, etc. Additionally, different experts were consulted and asked for their expectations concerning the future of TV and their vision on the future TV user and TV SET of the future.
The roles of fta in improving performance measurement systems to enable alignment between business strategy and operations: Insights from three practical cases Sidnei Vieira Marinho a,,
financial customer, internal business process, and learning and growth 10. These perspectives have outlined their objectives in measures, targets,
which are of greatest importance to enable a strategy to be implemented across business value chains 25.
The second phase (strategic diagnostic) combines a method for analysing business environments (SWOT analysis) with a method for constructing scenarios (the Global Business Network.
The Global Business Network (GBN) method enables an assessment of the resources and competencies needed in relation to the trends that ought to mould the future of the business.
This combination is not casual and provides a better optimisation of both tools and integration of results expected from the strategic diagnosis. SWOT analysis becomes robust in supporting strategy design
which experience and (tacit and explicit knowledge is embedded in a business set of routines. 3 6. Strategic budget:
The analysis of strengths and weaknesses (SWOT analysis) stimulated an important reflection in terms of the future via the application of the Global Business Network scenarios.
and includes FTA elements into this structure to empower the organisation to appropriately apply foresight in business 39 using a PMS.
41 (2000) 29 40.3 A. Raps, Implementing strategy, Strategic Finance June (2004) 49 54.4 H. Mintzberg, The fall and rise of strategic planning, Harvard Business Review
The genius is in the implementation, Journal of Business strategy 24 (2003) 26 31.9 L. E. Bossidy, L. R. Charan, Execution:
The Discipline of Getting Things Done, Crown Business, New york, 2002.10 R. Kaplan, D. Norton, Execution Premium, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, Massachusetts, 2008.11
An Appraisal and Agenda for Future research, Handbook of Strategic management, Blackwell Business, Malden, Massachusetts, 2001, pp. 602 626.12 R. Kaplan, D. Norton, Building a Strategy-Focused
What Matters to Get Things Right, Crown Business, New york, 2004.14 T. Hutzchenreuter, I. Kleindienst, Strategy process research:
an examination of frontline perspectives, Journal of American Academy of Business 11 (2007) 11 16. 16 O. Furrer, H. Thomas, A. Goussevskaia, The structure and evolution of the strategic management field:
D. Norton, Using the balanced scorecard as a strategic management system, Harvard Business Review 74 (1996) 75 85.26 S f. Lee, A s. Ko, Building balanced scorecard
and implementing Sun Tzu's the art of business management strategies on QFD methodology, Managerial Auditing Journal 15 (2000) 68 76.27 J. Ogilvy,
P. Schwartz, Plotting Your Scenarios, Global Business Network (GBN), San francisco, 2004.28 C. W. Choo, Environmental scanning as information seeking and organizational learning, Information Research 7
Then map it, Harvard Business Review 78 (2000) 167 176.30 A. Neely, R. Austin, Measuring operations performance:
Performance Measurement Conference, Cambridge, 2000.31 S. Tonchia, Linking performance measurement system to strategic and organizational choices, International Journal of Business Performance 2 (2000) 15
The Scorecard for Measuring and Managing Business Success, Prentice hall, New jersey, 2002.34 C. Argyris, D. A. Scho n, Organizational Learning:
An information Architecture to Enable Business Sustainability,(Phd thesis), University of Manchester, Manchester, UK, 2005.46 M. Boden, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Konnola, Facing the Future:
Spread of knowledge in the value chain and concentration on core competencies 35,36. 5. Business models that integrate across various industries 9, 37.
or identifying new business fields or new policy issues. The link between futures research and open innovation became apparent in past research.
Heger and Rohrbeck 39 describe the collaborative application of a set of foresight methods for exploration of new business fields,
or reflect business performance of the organizations. They merely reflect the state of each case concerning the planned and actual network orientation concerning futures research activities. 3. 2. 3. Categorizing the networked foresight activities The implementation of the identified networked foresight activities is structured according to the three roles of foresight
and reposition of innovation portfolio Provide strategic guidance Identify new business models Consolidate opinions Vision creation Opponent role Challenge basic assumptions Scan for disruptions that could endanger current
and the external trend that ICT is becoming increasingly important in all business areas provided the foundation for this vision. 4. 2. 2. Process model The activities of the EICT itself can be interpreted as an innovation process model.
Activity Short description Type 1. 1 Inspirational workshop Identified future‘themes'for inspiration and to structure innovation processes for WINN Singular activity 1. 2 Business modeling Addressed
strategic positioning of Rijkswaterstaat vis-a vis other organizations and decision making about exploitation of inventions Singular activity 1. 3 Business case analyses Used for sensibility analyses
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 68 innovation process, from futures research, topic identification and business field exploration to consortia building,
roadmapping and target costing 39, business modeling and future studies. The outcome of the applied futures research methods is broadened substantially in projects with interdisciplinary character and a combination of knowledge and insight from various industries.
education and business activities emerged in 2005 51. In 2008, the European parliament and Council established the EIT as an independent agency in the EU. In the summer of 2009,
and other studies Program 2. 2 Business field exploration Explores predefined business fields with various innovation management methods, i e.,
and ideas in guided workshops Singular activity 2. 5 Business modeling Generates, plans and evaluates new business modeling concepts Singular activity 2. 6 Business case analysis Provide revenue,
cost and profit projections in predefined cases to establish a basis of decision-making Project 2. 7 Networking on demand Identifies matching knowledge carriers in the partner network on demand,
and integrate the three fields education, research and business creation. Heger & Bub provide an in depth introduction to the EIT ICT Labs in 55.4.3.1.
research and business. Several collaborative instruments were established to support the identification and selection of activities for the future of the network, e g.,
thus predominantly aiming for business performance. Table 5 Networked foresight activities in the EIT ICT Labs. No.
and business successes by combining, stimulating, and drawing research attention toward activities within these fields Program 3. 2 Experience
performance and conformance Projects 3. 4 Spearhead Research grants additional research funds to facilitate collaborative research activities in high-potential topics Projects 3. 5 Business modeling Supports
and deployment of business modeling concepts in yet underexplored business fields Project, singular activity 3. 6 Technology transfer program Increases the transfer activities from academia to business by detecting, stimulating
and supporting technological opportunities within universities and research institutes Program 3. 7 Innovation radar Identifies new technologies,
and business opportunities on a yearly basis and provides the means to explore the field further Program 3. 9 Best-practice benchmarking Collects information about best practices in collaborative R&d,
and integrate them Program 3. 10 Business developer program Selects promising SMES and start-ups within the
partners'regions, supports cross-country fertilization and gives them access to experienced business developers Projects P. van der Duin et al./
to identify new business opportunities and assess and reposition the activities in place for water management. Thus, the strategist role as defined by Rohrbeck
The opponent role was addressed ancillary within business case analyses (Fig. 2). Two factors were identified to significantly influence the results of the foresight activities.
Activity Initiator role Strategist role Opponent role Scope 1. 1 Inspirational workshops (&) & Contract partners 1. 2 Business modeling
(&) & Contract partners 1. 3 Business case analyses & (&) Contract partners 1. 4 Series of future workshops & (&) Closed network &=Primary role of the activity,
and vision for the network based on the image of the future of an open network of partners that fosters research and business opportunities.
and help to identify new business models for either all network partners or those partners of the network that participate in the activity.
Some industry partners hesitated to disclose the use of information within their affiliation, especially concerning strategy development and core business.
Activity Initiator role Strategist role Opponent role Scope 2. 1 Future studies & (&) Open (organizations and end-users) 2. 2 Business field exploration
& (&)( &) Contract partners 2. 5 Business modeling & Contract partners 2. 6 Business case analysis
& (&) Contract partners 2. 7 Networking on demand & Closed network &=Primary role of the activity,
and business results. 5. The existence of a management team within the network facilitates the use of results from networked foresight to define
(organizations and end-users) 3. 3 Testbeds and simulation tools & Closed network 3. 4 Spearhead research & (&) Closed network 3. 5 Business modeling & (&) Open
3. 9 Best-practice benchmarking & Open (organizations) 3. 10 Business developer program & (&) Closed network &=Primary role of the activity,
especially the two aspects‘‘consolidation of opinions''and the‘‘identification of new business models''are exploited within these strategic activities.
The smaller networks of RWS and EICT concentrate on foresight with a focus on strategic implications, ideation or initiation of new business activities thus the strategist and initiator roles of foresight. 9 In contrast,
. Zook, Open-market innovation, Harvard Business Review 80 (2002) 80 89.12 O. Gassmann, E. Enkel, H. Chesbrough, The future of open innovation, R&d
in Germany, Journal of Forecasting 22 (2003) 93 111.22 P. Saffo, Six rules for effective forecasting, Harvard Business Review 85 (2007) 122 131.23
strategy in the 1990, Harvard Business Review 73 (1995) 11 128.29 V. Ambrosini, C. Bowman,
‘‘consolidation of opinions''and‘‘identification of new business models''appear to initiate new activities instead of altering strategy.
of new business fields, Technological forecasting and Social Change 79 (2012) 819 831.40 O. Gassmann, E. Enkel
and applying foresight methodologies in the EU. He has a masters degree in business economics and in marketing,
In business management the term environnmenta scanning is used to refer to the systematic observation of developments that present either threats or opportunities for the business.
These may take place in the immediate business (or transacttion environment, but may also be broader social or regulatory trends.
Criteria for improovin the business impact of foresight at Deutsche bank: lessons learnt in mapping trends. Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
Those lead to significant changes both in everyday life and business models under the combined influence of technological, organisational and behavioural innovations.
Michael Friedewald is head of the business unit for informatiio and communication technologies at the Fraunhofer Instiitut for Systems and Innovation research, Karlsruhe, Germany.
Sector analysis The first step in our process is the analysis of the sector in terms of the actors, business models, technollog trends, societal developments,
and describe the transitiio from traditional business models to online ones and identify the impacts of digitisation and other trends on the various steps in the value chain,
Having defined the industrial, business and technoloogica characteristics of the creative content sector and its sub-sectors,
we completed our understanndin with an assessment of the European positiio both in qualitative and quantitative terms, based on the analysis of company documents, business and policy reports.
The first phase of our analysis gave us an understanndin of ways in which ICT innovations challeeng traditional value chain structures and business models,
when defining their strategies and business models. The above technology and social/societal trends and the way they interact with one another provide intereestin insights for market players devising business plans
new business models with transformation of creative content goods into services; importance of communities of users as sources of talent, information, feedback and content via tools to create,
innovative enterprises that experts regaar as the drivers of technological and business changes can be supported in an environment that is currently dominated by a few globally active corporations;
and music are produced user Business in a digital world Five theses, e g. (28) Cable TV and satellite TV network operators are the predominant distributors of video-on-demand over the internet (30) Content creation for educational purposes (e-learning) reaches a 20%share
a situation where all Figure 4. Positioning of the four scenarios Competitive business environment Oligopolistic business environment Negative public attitude towards creative content, lack of demand Positive public
market-related issues (e g. development of new, sustainable business models; and societal sustainability issues (e g. user empowermeent cultural diversity.
promoting study programmes and curricula combinnin technical, business and creative skills; teaching the teachers; encouraging women to engage in creative content activities;
identifying activities and business models likely to contribute to creative conteen growth in the future and deriving conclusions for R&d policy turned out to be beyond the reach of the approach.
and the challenge that loosening them could pose for prevailing business models, while opening up opportunities for small enterprises and amateurs to develop innovative products and services.
Harvard Business Review, 80 (11), 115 123. Turlea, G, S Lindmark, L Picci et al. 2009.
and evaluation in generral Barre and Keenan (2006) concluded that an Jonathan Calof is recognized as one of the leaders in intelliggenc and business insight.
A professor of international business and strategy at the Telfer School of management at University of Ottawa
synchronization with the business agenda of the organization Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 36 Ireland, Japan, Finland and the UK;
did need you to build a business case for foresiigh in your government? How was done that?
Using technology foresight to create business value. Research Technology management, 47 (5), 51 61. European foresight monitoring Network Mapping Reports 2005 2007.
Criterri for improving the business impact of foresight at Deutsche bank: lessons learnt in mapping trends. Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
He was the first director of Chula Unisearch, a business-oriented commerciallizatio unit of Chulalongkorn University and the direccto of the S&t development Program at Thailand Development Research institute.
when child is ill Book a ticket for a conference Meet a business associate in a restaurant Transportation Journey
Work is Theatre and Every Business a Stage. Boston, MA: Harvard university Press. Rickards, T 2003.
Disruptive technologies, services, or business models? Wireless Personal Communicatioons 45 (4), 569 583
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