| New paradigm (9) |  |
| Paradigm (103) | |
| Technical paradigm (8) | |
| New paradigm (9) | |
| Paradigm (103) | |
| Technical paradigm (8) | |
The adaptive planning paradigm provides a natural guide for navigation of this complex landscape: one should consider
We then apply these insights to lab-on-a-chip devices for cell analysis. Dynamics of emerging paths can be used to articulate a future structured in terms of prospective innovation chains and potential paradigms.
This is the case with incremental innovation in established technological paradigms. For new and emerging fields of science and technology (S&t) where architectural (radical innovations might occur 1,
or mutually exclusive) paths-as-socio-technical paradigms. Whilst following their paths actors consider a number of factors‘along the road'(which contribute a considerable amount of uncertainty, and demand flexibility.
The aggregate outcome of actor strategies is the path-as-paradigm. These different paths at the different levels can be anticipated
In his seminal paper, Dosi 34 argued that technical paradigms direct activities in technology development and thus are both rules that guide heuristics
Technical paradigms are‘models 'and‘patterns'for finding solutions to selected technological problems, based on selected principles derived from natural sciences and on selected material technology().
A technological paradigm embodies strong prescriptions on the directions of technical change to pursue and those to neglect.
and aggregate level (similar to technical paradigms). 12 It was developed as a framework to study emerging alignments and entanglements in the field of nanotechnology,
paths as macro-level paradigms characterised by socio-technical alignments and entanglements; and path as micro-level actor strategies projected towards a future paradigm. 11
Which can have unintended consequences as Anthony Giddens 40 points out Merton has provided perhaps the classical discussion of the issue.
be it on the individual actor level (such as an entrepreneur) or on the level of the paradigm (national agencies, international consortia).
The map shows the possible paradigms that can emerge. In the future, drug delivery could be based on socio-technical entanglements created around multiple cell analysis. These entanglements would be based on,
what we show here as the possible future path/paradigm at the level of an application area (drug discovery) may also be called an innovation system.
and outlook for multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for reflexive alignment We have reported on a tool to provide ongoing strategic intelligence on evolving actor paths and emerging paradigms related to new and Emerging s&t.
We mapped initial, potential multiplicity paradigms with path characteristics, as well as the strategies that companies actually use.
and emerging paradigm level observed here. Multi-path mapping allows one to bring technical and organizational perspectives of path emergence and dynamics together in one related space.
then any of the innovation chains identified can create the matrix of entanglements constitutive of the new technology-application paradigm:
) 34 G. Dosi, Technical paradigms and technological trajectories a suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technological change, Res.
disciplines and intellectual traditions and paradigms and this we believe is consistent with the dynamism of transition to a knowledge-based economy;
In their paradigm a systemic one foresight is a critical way for institutions to examine
Chesborough 11 describes a new paradigm of open innovation involving the design of technological systems which, in technological requirements, transcends the boundaries of a single firm.
and overarching to the Ajax programming paradigm, and technologies which may be considered internal to the Ajax paradigm.
The internal technologies constitute a hierarchy in Fig. 6, while external technologies do not reveal much hierarchical structure, at least in this sample of the data.
may contribute to an open innovation paradigm where firms work together as part of an extended technological network 11.
Researching a New paradigm Oxford, Oxford university Press, 2006.12 M. Gibbons, C. Limoges, H. Nowotny, S. Schwartzman, P. Scott, The New Production of Knowledge:
socio-technical paradigm of central generation plants with wide area distribution networks. The presumed superiority of this paradigm relied on a series of assumptions,
like the predictability of the socioeconnomi development of the supplied region 1, the predetermination of the technical option,
Cagnin and Keenan 19 dub this type of approach as mode 2 foresight that allows the consideration of fundamental changes in paradigms
technology forecasting and technology assessment 1. As noted in Könnölä et al. 2, the gradual paradigm shift in the innovation research
A paradigm shift and interesting methodological developments are seen for Technology assessment too: TA originally emerged to balance power between the legislative and executive branches of government,
As in resilience engineering, the dominant normative safety/risk management strategy is replaced by a natural or adaptive strategy in the new paradigm of risk management.
Hence, the risk management paradigm is changing towards a more holistic approach. The process safety is considered not component-by-component anymore
According to this new risk management paradigm errors and failures are normal in industrial processes and the process management just has to cope with them.
towards a new safety paradigm, Journal of Risk Research 10 (7)( 2007) 959 975 October 2007.
with any paradigm shift, opens new opportunities of unprecedented magnitude. T. J. Gordon et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1067 6. Judgment heuristics People often make irrational decisions.
The outcome can stabilise into paradigms 19 and regimes 20. Variation (or rather novelty creation) and selection however does not occur at random,
Paradigms, trajectories and expectations offer partial understanding of how new technologies emerge, but have not answered these questions,
and techno-economic paradigms (macro-level analysis stemming from evolutionary economics similar to Nelson & Winters natural trajectories) critique both analyses for missing the interplay between both.
networks vs. paradigms, Res. Policy 28 (1999) 777 792.17 S. Bakker, H. van Lente, M. Meeus, Arenas of expectations for hydrogen technologies, Innovation studies Utrecht (ISU) Working
Eburon Press. 1993.19 G. Dosi, Technical paradigms and technological trajectories a suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technological change, Res.
and implies a shift of paradigm, as it was considered always to be a national strategic advantage that Luxembourg students had to go to foreign countries to study.
the late 1970s saw the emergence of a new paradigm in research, technology and then also innovation policies,
reflexive futures between paradigm and practice. Futures the journal of policy, planning and futures studies. Johnston, R. 2001.
In fields that are established (with a dominant design or in‘normal science'under a given paradigm),
meaning that two different pieces produced in different places will converge towards deepening the given paradigm.
But when a new paradigm is emerging, actors enter in a wide exploration, multiplying directions, and this divergence,
exploring further the systemic epigenetic complexity of protein production beyond the one gene-one function paradigm that shaped the initial researches.
due to its early large-scale application, plant genomics is organised still largely according to the initial paradigm of genomics.
The paradigm shift from the one gene one function towards a holistic approach that is one the one hand challenging the safety assessment of commercialised GM plants offers on the other hand a cognitive opportunity for modifying stakeholders alignment of interests.
and networking within the Nano-paradigm as well as between Nano-research and other fields. An example of the latter type is the Mona roadmap13 aiming at better integration between optics and nanotechnology.
and opening up may be useful to avoid early lock in into dominant paradigms that may later prove less fruitful.
By engaging actively in shaping the move from the current paradigm of‘growth'economics to that of ecological economics and industrial ecology
They represent the first signs of paradigm shifts, or future trends, drivers or discontinuities. Weak signal examples In the 1980s the first mention was made of global warming and climate change;
, interrestrial visitors, alliance, eco-collapse, biotech Increased impact of converging technologies on social life Natural language codifications becomes available allowing people communicate globally New s&t paradigms for knowledge society
The‘‘predict and provide''approach was established the planning paradigm. For example Banister (2002,31; based on Evans and Mackinder, 1980) illustrates that many of these forecasts turned out to be wrong in the UK.
and provide''paradigm has somewhat been corrected (at least rhetorically) and, on the other hand, quantitative tools such as models have become much more sophisticated,
Mannermaa (1991) even distinguishes a scenario paradigm. The main purpose in using the scenario approach is not to predict
. 1991),‘In search of an evolutionary paradigm for futures research'',Futures, Vol. 23 No. 4, pp. 349-72.
)( 1977) 36 76.3 G. Dosi, Technological paradigms and technological trajectories, in: C. Freeman (Ed.),Long Waves in the World.
Design/methodology/approach These assumptions are tested in a scenario design exercise that explores the future evolution of the sustainable development paradigm and its implications in the Spanish urban development model.
since structural changes were making traditional paradigms obsolete. Confronted with this situation, most urban planners recognised their impotence for drawing reliable predictions,
However, the reciprocal relations that may develop between the sustainable development paradigm and the general behaviour of society have not been assessed rigorously.
green paradigm (circa 2025. This scenario takes place when there is both a proactive and a favourable response by public and private agents to SD and also an abundance of all types of resources required to achieve sustainable development.
The VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 321‘‘green paradigm''is the manifestation of an environmentally aware society, in
The‘‘green paradigm''scenario reflects a proactive social response to SD while urban societies enjoy abundant resources (see Figure 4). In this scenario,
and wish to have a voice of their Figure 4 Scenario A‘‘green paradigm''VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 323 own in the planning process.
The predominant philosophy of the‘‘green paradigm''scenario will be to thrive in economic and social terms with lower consumption of energy, water and natural resources.
Suggested strategies for Scenario A. The green paradigm scenario offers a favourable context to successfully tackle the major challenges such as fighting climate change
Whichever scenario materialises in the near future, the sustainability paradigm in Spain will be achieved, depending on the fulfilment of a number of prerequisites:
Constrained to do more with less, predictive policing marks a paradigm shift in fighting crime, focusing not only on reaction but also (and mainly) on prevention.
In addition, the application of fta to legal research may also unblock the legal mind from current paradigms
According to the author, foresight needs a paradigm shift in the Knowledge society, overcoming the epistemic models of FTA that inherently assume a world that evolves as an extrapolation of the past,
political paradigms have changed, EU legislation and international competition leave less room for direct governmental activities in many technological fields.
Technical paradigms and technological trajectories a suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technological change. Research policy 11, no. 3: 147 62.
Alternative research paradigms in operations. Journal of Operations Management 8, no. 4: 297 326. Popper, R. 2008.
if new technological paradigms such as electric of hydrogen car will be established. Firms operating in mature industrrie have to rely as well on environmental scanning
a new technological paradigm might be established in mature industries as well, bringing the life cycle to the initial stages
Hence, business sustainability evolves from the linear concept of a value chain introduced by Porter (1985) or the current paradigm of supply chain management or value nets (Bovet and Martha 2000a, 2000b, 2000c, 2000d, 2000e.
and forecast technology paradigm shifts, which in turn will allow us to take a stronger role in accelerating the development of cutting-edge technology.
A new paradigm for understanding industrial innovation. In Open innovatiion Researching a new paradigm, ed. H. W. Chesbrough, W. Vanhaverbeke,
and J. West, 109 20. Oxford: Oxford university Press. Coates, J. F. 1976. Technology assessment: A tool kit.
2006) with relevance to strategic dialogues Model/framework Relevance to strategic dialogues Rational actor paradigm (RAP) The RAP assumes that all individuals maximize their personal benefit without communication with,
resurrection and new paradigms'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 60 No. 1, pp. 85-94. Hax, A. and Majluf, N. 1996), The Strategy Concept and Process:
and enabled a look into paradigm shifts rather than tackling different variants of the established system view.
and tools provide as far as possible a 13 The 5 P's Framework includes Paradigms, Pragmatism, Praxis,
The Challenges and Benefits of Integrating Diverse Paradigms, Jossey-Bass, San francisco, 1997.11 P. Goodwin, Why hindsight can damage foresight, Int. J. Appl.
a research paradigm whose time has come, Educ. Res. 33 (7)( 2004) 14 26.61 A. Tashakkori, C. Teddlie, Mixed Methodology, Combining Qualitative and Quantitative approaches, Applied Social research Methods Series, 46, Sage
including PASHMINA (Paradigm Shifts Modelling and Innovative Approaches) and EFONET (Energy Foresight Network) and is rapporteur of the EC Working group Global Europe 2030 2050.
Recognition of this fact in last decades is leading firmly to a new scientific paradigm, a complex bio-socioeconomics, with the convergence of different fields of science toward
Recognition of this fact in last decades is leading firmly to a new scientific paradigm, a complex bio-socioeconomics
but also relate to functional relations, model hypotheses and aspects, model structures, mental and formal models, worldviews, modeling paradigms, the effects of policies on modeled systems,
In response, an alternative policy-making paradigm has emerged. This paradigm holds that, under deep uncertainty, policy-making needs to be dynamic with built-in flexibility 8, 15,20 24.
The initial ideas for this paradigm were developed almost a century ago. Dewey 25 put forth an argument proposing that policies be treated as experiments,
with the aim of promoting continual learning and adaptation in response to experience over time 26.
These cases differed in the modeling paradigm that was used, in the application domain, and in the type of problem being investigated.
Section 3 describes how we conceptualize inspiring issues and paradigms from different scientific disciplines such as business and innovation research, futures studies, sociology and policy analysis.
These concepts and paradigms are used then to analyze the selected scenario case studies. For example, we look how the applied
development of a research paradigm, in: L. V. Shavinina (Ed.),The International Handbook on Innovation, Pergamon, London, UK, 2003.
many foresight exercises do not look into paradigm shifts but rather tackle different variants of the established system view.
In many cases mode 1 foresight 1 that fosters the recognition of intra-systemic alternatives, underpins the optimisation of robust strategies within the existing paradigm,
scenarios and roadmaps challenging today's paradigms and basic assumptions on system dynamics. A third arena where systemic change needs to be addressed is innovation itself as its very definition seems to be shifting.
which is needed to envisage structural transformation challenging today's paradigms. 4. Conclusions As INFU was being finalised at the time of writing it is too early to assess the usefulness or even the impact of its findings in a reliable manner.
Largely conceived in the light of market failure arguments that sat comfortably with the neoliberal economic paradigm,
to embed the paradigm of future-oriented policy-making successfully within their organisations, they would need to address
The‘open innovation paradigm'1, which has been covered widely (and even hyped) in the literature is a Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Chesbrough coined the term‘Open innovation'to describe the paradigm‘‘that firms can and should use external ideas as well as internal ideas,
Innovation networks Futures research Foresight Networked foresight Open innovation A b s T R A c T Along with the rise of the now popular‘open'paradigm in innovation management,
The link is deepened through various studies that discuss foresight methods as means to embrace the open innovation paradigm.
Rohrbeck, Ho lzle and Gemu nden discuss the role of futures research for corporate innovativeness in the form of foresight workshops 8. These workshops are identified as one instrument of Deutsche telekom for embracing the open innovation paradigm
It has been proposed that a new paradigm is develoopin in the 21st century based on the combinatiio of nanotechnology, biotechnology,
However, from the 1960s on this industry-push perspective was challenged by more human-centred paradigms that largely reject this notion of technologgica determinism
such as the issue of the continuous involvement of users and the discrepancy between theory and practice in this respeect Although the user-driven innovation paradigm advocates an open perspective
Paradigm. Braun, D. 2008)‘ Organising the political coordination of knowledge and innovation policies',Science and Public policy, 35: 227 39.
between institutional inertia and rapid changes'Paper prepared for the workshop on Innovation Paradigm: The Impact of Economic Ideas on RTD Policies, 4s/EASST Conference 2000, held 27 30 september 2000, Vienna.
Ruivo, B. 1994)‘ Phases or paradigms of science policy?''Science and Public policy, 21: 173 83. Saich, A j. 1989) China's Science policy in the 80s.
Changes in soft institutions are likely to be particularly critical in determining progress in finding viable paths towards tackling grand challenges and any consequent change in paradigms that these may entail.
and changes in paradigms is needed. At the same time FTA PROCESSES place a special emphasis on novelty, creativity and multi-disciplinarity in knowledge development,
A comparative analysis of the dominant paradigms'.'In: Matt, M. and Llerena, P. eds) Innovation policy in a Knowledge Based Economy:
In industry, new manufacturing paradigms are evolving and new ICT-based tools and processes are available for the whole production life-cycle.
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