risk

Risk

Emerging risks (8)
Environmental risks (4)
Risk (342)
Risk analysis (36)
Risk analysis methods (12)
Risk assessment (110)
Risk assessment methodology (9)
Risk governance (8)
Risk management (27)

Synopsis: Risk:

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but acutely aware of the danger of losing focus as the demands of dclientst place more and more complexity in the field of application. 2. Process management

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because we know too little about their advantages and disadvantages, their costs and opportunities and risks.

the aim is to negotiate consensus on risks and opportunities or at least achieve transparency about conflicting viewpoints,

The findings run the risk of being rooted not sufficiently in a scientific base, where the best available and often diverging sources of knowledge ought to be brought together in an explicit way

Econ. 5 (1977) 147 176.52 B. Schauer, R&d portfolio selection considering risk and project interrelations, Phd thesis, University of Technology Vienna, Vienna, 2007.

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In Woodwisdom-Net, some‘slack'was built into the process schedule as a risk mitigation measure,

and mitigates the risk of ending up with a weak response to calls for proposals, for example. Another benefit is that the funding organizations can define the priorities based on a realistic understanding of what issues researchers are keen on pursuing

foresight in the risk society, Technovation 19 (6 7)( 1999) 413 421.2 T. Jewell, International foresight's contribution to globalisation, Foresight The Journal of Futures studies, Strategic thinking and Policy

Ahti Salo (M. Sc. 1987, D. Tech. 1992) is Professor at the Systems analysis Laboratory with research interests in decision analysis, decision support systems, technology foresight, and risk management.

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& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 related patent applications and in literature databases for articles addressing the various risk aspects.

reduction of inventory risk for companies. 2014 3. 65 3. 42 1. 86 2. 35 2. 38 All public transport bookings, confirmation of transport services,

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However, the large risk of little return-on-investment has stimulated another form of innovation chain initiated by MNCS shown in innovation chain 2. This shifts the risk to SMES which the MNC contracts for risky projects.

Thus MNCS attempt at shifting the risk to start-up companies which build on their own ties with the research community

Another obstacle came from the MNC perspective based on the risk of outsourcing the development of an integrated platform to SMES:

Developing an Integrated Policy Approach to Science, Technology, Risk and the Environment, Ashgate, Aldershot, 2005, pp. 45 66.24 S. K. Kassicieh, S. T. Walsh

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or escape from the negative consequences of a‘risk society'.'The diversity of the above areas suggests that foresight process impacts should be interpreted through the lenses of epistemology, sociology, political science, management science and organisational theory.

not only in terms of the management of health-and environment-related risks, but also in terms of ensuring sustainable development. These two‘pillars',the‘knowledge society'and‘participatory governance',can become the common framework in

or cope with the negative consequences of a‘risk society'.'4 Notwithstanding the importance of knowledge in previous types of societies, several authors acknowledge a shift in the economic structure of modern societies away from a‘material'input driven economy towards a knowledge-based

It calls for the establishment of an environment that encourages risk taking and is characterised by reflexivity

The literature suggests that the emerging knowledge societies are also‘risk societies',characterised by decision-making conducted within an environment of increasingly uncertain or incomplete knowledge.

While active participation is demanded in a‘risk society, 'at the same time it is promoted by a‘knowledge society'via support for the development of more informed publics.

networking, informed publics) seem to be necessary to cope with a‘risk society'.'The findings of the literature review on what constitutes the major characteristics of the emerging knowledge

and risk societies are synthesised into a conceptual framework describing a more participatory‘knowledge society'.'This conceptual framework is illustrated in Fig. 1. 5 The three main groups of characteristics are illustrated by the three inner circles.

Apart from trying to identify potential future risks, foresight also facilitates the adoption of a holistic approach in terms of identifying possible impacts within and among different scenarios.

or escape from the negative consequences of a‘risk society'.'4. From the conceptual framework to an objectives hierarchy The conceptual framework used to characterise emerging knowledge societies

d) managing uncertainty/risk; and (e) improving flexibility and complex adaptation. The factors facilitating networking are (a) enhancing organisation position and reputation;(

or escape from the negative consequences of a‘risk society'.'This suggests that it is possible to assess foresight exercises in terms of their contribution to more participatory‘knowledge societies,

Research interests include the areas of research evaluation and impact assessment, foresight, national innovation systems and policies, scientific advice for policy-making and risk governance.

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innovation policy development and others inclined toward the provocation of innovation an opportunity to learn some new approaches as well as to reflect further upon some familiar tools such as risk assessment being profiled re within the new context of FTA.

Koivisto et al. examine how traditions of risk assessment are being adapted to the new more agile and greater uncertainties context of FTA.

Integrating Future-oriented technology analysis and Risk assessment (RA) Methodologies provides a clear example of where an older discipline meets a new one

while also managing the risks effectively. We the editors believe this is a positive development as it signifies the potential of opening up a fruitful dialogue between the relatively young

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and anticipate risks of established strategies 24, 25. The elaboration of scenarios supports self-reflection and learning as well as strengthens strategic thinking 26 by challenging individual and organizational worldviews 27.

This may indicate risks that have to be considered before implementing the solution. The lower circle calls for some caution in discarding these options

potential problems with quality control and the risk of creating new strong path dependencies. In the downturn scenario, assessment results were rather antagonistic.

while the risk of building up too much organizational overhead could be minimized. Furthermore, critical framework conditions were taken into consideration.

Collection of EFMN Briefs Part 1, Office for Official Publications of the European commission, Luxembourg, 2008.45 I. Chatrie, J. Rachidie, AGORA 2020 Transport, housing, urbanism and risk, in:

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Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies Raija Koivisto, Nina Wessberg, Annele Eerola, Toni Ahlqvist, Sirkku Kivisaari, Jouko Myllyoja, Minna Halonen VTT Technical research Centre of Finland

Received 17 november 2008 Received in revised form 11 june 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools,

with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis.

Technology analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT.

Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessmeen of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities,

risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES. The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes;

Keywords: Foresight methodology Technology assessment Technology analysis Risk assessment Risk analysis Roadmapping 1. Introduction The practices in foresight, technology assessment and industrial risk assessment processes are in many ways parallel.

They all explore plausible forthcoming developments, evaluate their desirability, importance and acceptability, and consider the risks involved.

The context, emphasis and time horizons of examination vary, however. For instance, risk assessment in the context of industrial process safety aims to predict the risk caused by a failure, deviation,

malfunction or error in an industrial system or operation leading to unwanted consequences. The time horizon considered typically is a couple of years maximum

In an ideal situation the risk analysis is performed continuously to check all appearing changes and situations.

in risk assessment the focus has typically been in negative outcomes whereas in foresight exercises the positive developments like innovation possibilities has Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Corresponding author.

In particular, the aim of this paper is to examine the possibilities of integrating systematic risk assessment with interactive foresight

and its multidisciplinary technology foresight team, consisting of researchers with experience on foresight, technology assessment and risk assessment studies,

in order to develop more proactive and systemic risk assessment that covers even new types of emerging risks (incl. risks related to new technologies and their introduction to the market).

On the other hand, the development of foresight and technology assessment methodologies is expected to benefit from the experiences of the industrial risk assessment tradition:

the increasingly complex world creates new types of risks that shouldn't be bypassed with the examination of future opportunities, creation of shared visions and assessment of desired impacts.

Development of an integrated approach that combines the strengths of FTA and risk assessment traditions is not,

Opening up a fruitful dialogue among the FTA researchers and professionals facilitates also mutual learning across the FTA and risk assessment communities.

The paper builds on VTT experience in a variety of prospective risk assessment contexts (information-based infrastructures

new businesses, climate adaptation) and some recent methodological considerations of the VTT foresight team (especially modular foresight/risk assessment process design that allows flexible tailoring of the process for varying needs and objectives.

Foresight and risk assessment activities are considered increasingly important throughout the R&d value chain, stressing the need for a flexible, integrative approach.

development of proactive risk assessment methodologies for different corporate risk management purposes (identiffyin the vulnerability of corporate and process actions, managing the risks in occupational, industrial and environmental safety, managing business risks, etc.),

which risk assessment and FTA METHODOLOGIES and tools can be integrated systematically on the basis of the VTT experiences.

and positions these projects according to important foresight design dimensions. o Section 4 paves the way towards a modular and integrative approach by discussing the common and complementary features of risk assessment

and FTA PROCESSES. o Section 5 points out preliminary conclusions and directions for further research. 2. Methods of FTA and risk assessment 2. 1. The methods of future-oriented technology analysis Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) can be seen as a common

‘risk analysis'is mentioned in the‘analysis and selection'section of the framework. This will be discussed further in Section 2. 2. Joint research Centre (JRC)

In this way TA can also play a more significant role in pushing the development in a useful or wanted direction. 2. 2 Risk assessment methodologies in industrial safety As noted in the previous Section 2. 1,

risk analysis is seen as one of the methods contributing to the FTA EXERCISES. Weak signal and Wild Card analyses for instance are used tools in risk analyses concerning the strategic design of societies or companies, e g. 43 45.

Risk assessment and risk management concepts can refer e g. to risk assessment related to health risk, toxicology, ecology, food safety or industrial use 12,

but also economical analysis. This section describes the methodological developments of risk assessment in the context of industrial safety,

which we have chosen to be the risk assessment focus in this paper an important area with the well-established and relatively long risk assessment tradition,

and strongly linked to corporate decision making. Development of safety and risk analysis in the industrial context stems from nuclear industry, civil and military aviation,

and space technology in the 1960s 13. These fields are renowned for their complicated systems, where possible accidents may have far-reaching consequences.

The use of risk analysis became a common practice to evaluate the safety of processing, storing or transporting dangerous chemicals.

and manage risks in a complex context was rapidly showing its success. The number of industrial accidents

In addition, various risk analysis methods exist for different purposes in the process industry 21,22. Tixier et al. 23, for instance, reported about 62 risk analysis methodologies.

There are methods for mapping the hazards generally and also methods for a very detailed analysis, such as index methods and strict quantitative modelling.

Some methods are tailored to special risks, e g. environmental risks 24. Possibly the most frequently used risk analysis method in the world is Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) study

which has also been standardised 25. Potential problem analysis is used also widely. All the methods follow the general structure

and demands of the technical risk analysis as defined in the standard IEC 60300-3-9 20 (see Fig. 3). The prerequisites for a successful risk assessment are:

o data on the system being analysed and on all the associated substances, o operational model of the system under analysis, o systematic hazard identification procedure and risk estimation techniques,

A systematic risk analysis typically starts, after the data gathering, with the identification of hazards and the associated hazardous scenarios according to a specific procedure defined by the selected risk analysis method.

Risk is defined as the combination of probability (frequency) and consequence of a certain scenario. Relevant probability data is seldom available

and as such, fully quantitative risk estimations are performed not normally in industry. Instead, semiquantiitativ procedures are applied typically.

Risk categories are defined according to consequence and probability ranges, and are represented generally in a matrix form.

According to this estimation, the risks can be classified as catastrophic, major, severe, or minor 20, and prioritised.

The risks are assessed then against the acceptability criteria, and the risk control measures are planned and applied based on this prioritisation.

It is recommended that the entire risk assessment procedure is done in brainstorming group sessions in which the participants are selected based on their relevant knowledge and experience of the industrial process.

The pertinent literature and other kinds of external expert knowledge are consulted also as deemed necessary Traditionally,

risks are identified and removed, and risk analysis methods are designed to be a tool of systematic risk identificcatio process.

In traditional methods, risks are identified component by component. In recent years the approach towards more comprehensive and holistic risk management has strengthened.

Approaches like inherent safety 26 in process design as well as resilience engineering 27 in process operating address the complex nature of industrial process.

It has been understood that process safety is not a creation of a component by component study.

This approach has raised recently interest in the risk management field. Resilience engineering originates from the resilience thinking of ecosysste dynamics 38 implying that ecosystems must cope with continuous changes and constant evolution.

As an analogy to Fig. 3. The process of risk analysis, risk assessment and risk management 20.1167 R. Koivisto et al./

As in resilience engineering, the dominant normative safety/risk management strategy is replaced by a natural or adaptive strategy in the new paradigm of risk management.

Risk management is based not on a striving for perfection from the start nor even on systematic surveillance of deviances for the purpose of correcting them,

but on constant surveillance of the safety margins and levels of risks taken 39. Hence, the risk management paradigm is changing towards a more holistic approach.

The process safety is considered not component-by-component anymore but rather as a complex socio-technical entity.

However, risk analysis methods have not fully followed the new direction yet; risk analysis methodologies still structure the risk assessment processmechanically.

This systematic mechanisticway surely has benefits, which could also be applied in amore holistic approach. One newapproach thatwidens the traditional field of risk assessmentmight open fromthe future-oriented,

or foresighting, impact assessment (FIA) currently under development at VTT. In this methodology, the concept of risk iswidened to consider the risks in the innovation processesmay these be either intra-corporate R&dor highly distributed

and networked processes. In FIA the risks are considered as emerging already in the innovation process, and cover such areas as investment, communication, trust and general development risks.

FIA thus steers the risk assessment to a more anticipatory and proactive direction. According to this new risk management paradigm

errors and failures are normal in industrial processes and the process management just has to cope with them.

In fact, the process usually can manage the errors, because there is an intrinsic safety potential in the process performed by the equipments, personnel and organisation.

Although this entire socio-technical compleexit is addressed, the new safety approach does not, however, make traditional risk analysis methods useless.

Risk analysis methods should still be used for creating safety into the process, namely by creating systematic working methods into the safety information gathering,

analysing and understanding, as well as finding ways to mitigate risks and adapt to risks and their consequences.

The next section illuminates the synergies between FTA and risk assessment methodologies by analysing the foresight design dimensions of three research projects. 3. Prospective projects illuminating possible synergies

and development challenges To study the integration of FTA and risk assessment some relevant projects were analysed.

These projects are chosen based on the authors'knowledge, experiences and/or involvement in the projects. The results of this analysis are presented in the following section. 3. 1. Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (IRRIIS) A case study of the use of foresight

and scenario methods in a proactive risk assessment of telecommunication and electric power infrastructures was conducted in an EU funded project Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (IRRIIS,

research period 2006 2009. The aim was to study the possibilities of proactive risk assessment and management of critical infrastructures based on the integration of risk assessment and scenario development methods.

The time frame of the study was the year 2015. The study addresses that the more the scope of risk analysis is moving into a not-so-well-known field the more the risk identification becomes the crucial part of the process 28.

It is emphasised also that new market developments, technologies, threats and vulnerabilities are emerging and that they require proactive anticipation of the future worlds.

Organisations have to consider alternative developments of influence factors gain network thinking and action. They need to focus on strategic thinking

The results of the process showed that the created scenarios were too generic to apply the traditional (process safety) risk assessment methods

This kind of scenarios cannot sufficiently be analysed by the currently available risk assessment methods, because these methods require more detailed knowledge of the target to be analysed:

The project states that a good modelling tool would help to model the future interdependencies supported by an integration of the scenario work and the systematic risk assessment. 3. 2. Managing opportunities,

risks and uncertainties related to new businesses (INNORISK) The INNORISK project aims at creating new tools to manage the innovation process

in order to take into consideration potential opportunities and risks. The project is ongoing, but preliminary results sound already promising,

and show the fruitful link between the foresight and risk assessment methods. 1168 R. Koivisto et al./

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 The INNORISK Managing opportunities, risks and uncertainties project is a 3-year (2006 2009) joint research project between the Corporate Foresight

and management of future uncertainties and risks in companies that are giving rise to new business 29.

INNORISK project aims at applying Back-pocket roadmap 30 (also called Agile Roadmap), SWOT analysis 31,32 and IBM's Signpost methodology tools together with Potential Problem/Opportunity (Risk analysis

33) and Risk Map methodology 34. All these methods are applied in an innovation process of a new product development.

opportunity recognition (the fuzzy front end), conceptualisation and commercialisatiion Foresight and risk assessment are essential parts of each stage.

Risk map/risk taxonomy is used in the INNORISK approach as a link between the fuzzy front end

The risk map can be used like a checklist during the front end phase in order to identify critical factors affecting commercialisation as early as possible.

INNORISK researchers also point out that risk management is not only about identifying and assessing risks and selecting risk reducing measures,

but also about being able to respond quickly and effectively to realised threats as they arise.

The experiences of the method development in the INNORISK case companies have been positive. Dominating feature in all cases has been that the top management of the companies has been involved actively in the development processes.

Active involvement of the decision makers in the analysis allowed them to have a broad and realistic image about opportunities and risks related to the new (potential) business.

as a result of the method development. 3 3. 3. Climate change adaptation and risk assessment (CES) A joint project concerning the climate change adaptation in Finland

Risk assessment methods to evaluate the uncertainties and consequences of the climate change affecting the Nordic energy production system are developed in the project.

The risk assessment procedure is developed at the first stage of a case study concerning Nordic hydropower production 37.

A generic model of the risk assessment procedure, applicable within the Nordic countries, will initially be framed.

The tools to apply the future-oriented risk assessment are developed during this process, and they are at this preliminary stage as follows:

the general risk assessment procedure, guidelines for gathering the background information, the seasonal plan, risk identification model

and risk/opportunity table, and a method for risk estimation and evaluation. The seasonal plan, for instance, aims at stimulating the risk identification process by listing the normal seasonal routines of the hydropower plant,

e g. spring floods or ice cover freezing over the river in the 2 E-mail discussions with Pasi Valkokari in INNORISK project March 6th 2009.3 E-mail discussions with Pasi Valkokari in INNORISK project March 6th

2009.1169 R. Koivisto et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 autumn. Potential climate change effects are added then to the seasonal plan

and changes to the normal seasonal routines can be noticed; the future is linked in that way to present situation.

Risk assessment procedure in CES is designed on the basis of brainstorming sessions between power plant operators and managers as well as climate change experts.

All the identified risks and opportunities are mapped on the fourfold table, and these in turn guide the company on how to deal with the identified challenge:

Hence, it is also important that social aspects are addressed in the risk assessment procedure. Herein the foresight methodologies considering the possible changes in the society may be helpful.

In the context of the Nordic hydropower production and distribution, for instance, the most threatening scenarios are selected for the risk estimation and evaluation process.

CES project, for example, stresses the operational level risk assessment whereas the INNORISK project's starting point is corporate strategic decision making.

On the operational level, fixed risk analysis methods are useful and dominate the analysis, while on the strategic decision making level the autonomous methods are convenient.

The analysis of this small amount of project material indicates that systematic risk assessment methods tend to direct the analysis towards instrumental, consensual and exclusive analysis of the future.

and therefore not always productive, to apply systematic risk assessment methods together with more loosely formulated foresight approaches

in order to illustrate the potentiality of the future and possible future risks. The challenge of making a bridge between foresight

and technical risk analysis methods lies perhaps mostly on people's experience of using different methods in these two parallel traditions.

risk analysis expert may know e g. roadmapping method, but does not understand that it is the most usable only in the prescription phase of the foresight process.

The same goes to the risk analysis methods: some methods are better in scanning the situation in the early stage of the risk assessment process

and some other methods are better in analysing the case more detailed. Cases are also in different scales,

and concrete level case studies follow the technical risk assessment tradition. 4. Towards an integrated approach 4. 1. Risk assessment

and FTA PROCESS seeking common ground There are constitutive similarities between risk assessment and FTA PROCESSES. Both processes start with the scope definition/pre foresight phases,

Recruitment phase of the FTA is included also in the scope definition phase in risk assessment, when possible and relevant experts and stakeholders are collected.

The generation phase or the prognosis phase of the FTA PROCESS resembles the hazard/risk identification phase in risk assessment

Hazard/risk estimation and evaluation phases, in turn, are identified phases where risks are estimated and evaluated by modelling them either quantitatively, semi-quantitatively or qualitatively.

The same kind of activity is happening in the FTA action phase. The ultimate meaning of this phase is to arrange the knowledge in such a form that it is easy to use in decision making.

Also the action proposal and risk reduction/control phases share similarities to the practices and activities in the FTA action or prescription phase.

The last phase of the FTA PROCESS namely the renewal phase is also present in the risk assessment process

and accuracy of the analysis. The foresight process as well as the risk assessment process is a knowledge making process.

and risk analysis studies a common theoretical ground. Both models organise the knowledge making in three dimensional space generating the knowledge from personal and proprietary to common sense and public,

or risk analysis processes and more detailed analysis are applied in the later phases. In practice it seems that wild card

and weak signal analysis are very near to risk analysis ideology. Wild cards and weak signals can be compared to early warnings

One core idea in risk management is to find out early warning signals and near miss situations and learn lessons from them

and holistic processes Foresight activities and methodologies may have benefits that will support the risk analysis methods and activities in the development towards a more holistic approach.

This development is needed especially to manage the new emerging risks, such as those that nanotechnologies, population aging,

In addition, business, policy making and the whole broad spectrum of decision making call for future-oriented technology analysis as well as risk assessment. Foresight methods and activities approve the uncertainty linked to the different futures

The core benefit of risk assessment methods is absolutely the strict systemic character of the risk analysis techniques.

foresight studies may also benefit the systemic process common to the risk analysis processes. Risk assessment methods are fixed traditionally approaches,

e g. focused on a certain industrial plant or specific chemical or event (Fig. 5). They typically are short-term studies,

Fig. 5 also shows that the assessment of new emerging risks demands longer time-frame and a more contingent examination approach.

The studies related to new emerging risks may be the core case studies where the integration of foresight and risk assessment traditions will be profitable at least the integration process would be easiest to carry on in this environment,

because emerging risks field is closest to the foresight exercises compared to the picture 5. To build the bridge between foresight

and risk assessment traditions in emerging risk assessment would then help in applying the more contingent and holistic approach in more fixed and short time risk assessment exercises.

Here the use of resilience engineering would certainly benefit from the traditions the foresight tradition would offer.

Instead of scanning the risks in the future by studying the process component by component a more holistic viewpoint would be possible.

Fig. 5. The relationships between risk assessment and FTA METHODS according to the time frame and approach. 1172 R. Koivisto et al./

and CES) show that it is not easy to integrate systematic risk assessment and foresight methods. In IRRIIS project the results show that risk assessment methods are too detailed for analysing loosely constructed scenarios.

Risk assessment methods require detailed description of the analysis target, at least a plan. The future target, e g. a scenario, may not have a sufficient level of detail.

It was noticed also that both processes FTA or risk assessment processes can be very detailed processes focusing on certain area or place,

or they can be large scanning processes. For instance, scenario analysis may be just a little part of the whole foresight process and,

therefore, conducting risk assessment only to the produced scenarios may be difficult. Another option may be to keep the risk assessment approach in the process during the whole foresight exercise.

In some way the technology assessment is close to risk assessment methods, but the scope might still be vaguer than in risk assessment processes in industrial applications.

IRRIIS and CES especially reveal the gap between the future-oriented analysis and the technological system stressed risk assessment processes.

In INNORISK project the challenge has somehow been easier probably because the risk assessment methods applied have been in a more general and not so detailed level.

For example, risk map methodology is more general than for instance the HAZOP method. However the case projects show that there is potential in integrating the risk assessment and the FTA METHODOLOGIES.

In our view, the most promising benefit in integrating risk assessment and FTA APPROACHES seems to be the aspect of creating safety and opening up new future possibilities.

The holistic future-oriented technology assessment or foresight methodologies tend to assess and create the future simultaneously. The same idea belongs also to the holistic risk management where safety is created in the process by evolving the intrinsic safety potential of the process.

In both technology and risk assessment this is made by changing mindsets, building trust among actors and developing better preparedness for the change,

which is constantly present. The second benefit may come from the participatory and networking approach of different expert analyses.

Since future and risks are always ontologically unknown to us, there exist no facts about the future

and risks are always contingent. Therefore, we are forced to collect and construct the knowledge create an understanding and share it in networks of people.

Futures and safe situations, or at least safety predispositions, are created by people. That is why network building is the crucial part of assessment processes and methodologies.

We can cope with the uncertainty by collecting and creating the best possible knowledge of the future and risks,

and being all the time aware of the possible threats and opportunities of the complex world, ready to mitigate the risk

or to adapt to a changing situation, or take advantage of it. 5. Conclusions This paper has compared the basic characteristics of FTA and risk assessment processes,

and discussed the attempts to integrate these two approaches. As a result, it has been discovered that both approaches seek to manage the uncertainty of potential futures,

in business and in the society in general is crucial for both FTA and risk assessment. There is, therefore, a common ground shared by both approaches.

However, risk assessments utilize more systematic and standardised methods, especiaall in risk identification phase. Risk assessment process requires also a more detailed description of the target of the analysis Table 1 The lessons learned from the case projects.

Project/questions IRRIIS INNORISK CES How case studies contributed to risk analysis methodology? Scenarios should be as accurate as possible

in order to be able to be processed by risk analysis techniques. PPA/POA and risk map methods were applied in a foresight process.

A new risk analysis framework was created. How case studies contributed to risk assessment methodologies? A good modelling tool would be helpful to model the future interdependencies.

Roadmap, SWOT analysis and Signpost foresight methods were integrated in the risk assessment process. Risk analysis methods and climate change scenarios were integrated.

How case studies contributed to risk management methodology? The results show that the integration of proactive risk assessment

and scenario methods is challenging. The study showed that risk management is not just about identifying and assessing risks,

but also about being able to respond quickly and effectively to the realised threats. The new framework help companies to create climate change strategies.

How case studies contributed to risk resilience thinking? Scenario building was based on large and vague trend analysis. The innovation process was seen as a whole.

No contribution: the energy production process is noticed component by component. 1173 R. Koivisto et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 than the FTA PROCESS.

In turn, there is a shift towards a more contingent approach also in risk assessment as is in FTA APPROACH.

Hence, fixed component by component way of doing the analysis may give place to other kinds of methods,

which is more common nowadays, for instance, in FTA APPROACH. Either way, both approaches may benefit methodologically from each other in developing better methods for assessing the futures.

For example, in case of emerging risks new methods applying the sufficient features of as well risk assessment as FTA APPROACHES are welcome.

The new approach future-oriented impact assessment (FIA) is seen also promising in integrating methodologically risk assessment into the whole innovation process.

In Table 2 the characteristics and typical processes and methods of risk assessment and future-oriented technology analyses, as well as future expectations concerning their development,

are compared summarised and. In general FTA APPROACH encourages to build new risk analysis techniques which are more capable of taken into consideration the longer time frames than have been common in risk analysis tradition before.

Risk assessment and management will benefit from the FTA APPROACH by gaining more holistic viewpoints. Due to the need of developing more holistic risk management processes responding the continuous change,

the future risk assessment shows up as a methodology that should increasingly adapt supplementary elements from many different approaches such as FTA.

When the contribution of FTA is emphasized on revealing technological changes and their impacts in the future, the contribution from other areas is needed also.

This may, for example, concern integration of theories of networks or organisational culture in risk management more solidly.

In sum, cross-boundary thinking is required not only when forming a risk management team, but also when forming the methodology and tools for the use of these teams.

These notions open many challenges where further studies may be beneficial. In practice to succeed to build the solid bridge between the foresight

and risk analysis methods new case studies would be needed. Acknowledgements The authors want to thank especially Ms. Riitta Molarius (CES project

Mr. Pekka Maijala and Mr. Pasi Valkokari (INNORISK project) from VTT for providing valuable discussions and material concerning the case projects.

References 1 M. Rader, A l. Porter, Fitting future-oriented analysis methods to study types, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barré (Eds.

Risk assessment (focus on the context of industrial safety) Future-oriented technology analysis Aim To identify and assess risks now and in the future.

The risk is caused by a failure, deviation, malfunction or error in an industrial system or operation.

To create and arrange the knowledge about risks in order to help the corporate decision making. To identify possible future developments, driving forces, emerging technologies, barriers, threats and opportunities related to a broader socio-technoeconnomi system.

To arrange the knowledge in such a format that is easy to use in decision making. Results A report where identified

assessed and classified risks are described: Risk=f (Probability, Consequences), the biggest risks are tried to be managed first.

Outlooks, proposals of the future developments, scenarios, visions, roadmaps, action recommendations. Time horizon 0 5 years 5 50 years Phases Scope definition, risk identification, risk estimation (probability, consequences), risk evaluation The pre foresight phase

, the recruitment phase, the generation phase Standards BS 8800, OHSAS 18001, ISO guides, IEC standards None existing, creative openness Methods Hazop Potential problem analysis

Index methods Environmental risk analysis Totally over 60 reported risk analysis methods Delphi, SWOT analysis, benchmarking, expert panels (new knowledge creation) Technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios (visions of the future) Constructive technology assessment,

Technology assessment for managers, Routledge, London, 1998.12 R. Fairman, C. D. Mead, P. W. Williams, Environmental risk assessment approaches, experience and information sources, European Environment

, International organisation for Standardization, Switzerland, 1999.19 International organization for Standardization (ISO), Risk management vocabulary guidelines for use in standards, ISO Guide, vol. 73, International organisation for Standardization, Switzerland, 2002.20

Risk analysis of Technological Systems, Geneva, Switzerland, 1995.21 Center for Chemical process Safety (CCPS), Guidelines for Hazard Evaluation Procedures, 2nd Ed. AICHE, New york, USA, 1992

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, D. Gaston, Review of 62 risk analysis methodologies of industrial plants, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, vol. 15, Elsevier Science Ltd.

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Raija Koivisto has over twenty years experience in safety, security, risk assessment and foresight related research at VTT.

Her current research interests include emerging risks and critical infrastructure protection, among others. She also holds a docent position in the University of Oulu

In 1999 she joined VTT to work in developing the management of environmental risks. In 2007 she entered VTT's Technology foresight and technology assessment team.

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