Risk analysis

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Synopsis: Risk: Risk analysis:

Foresight methodology Technology assessment Technology analysis Risk assessment Risk analysis Roadmapping 1. Introduction The practices in foresight, technology assessment and industrial risk assessment processes are in many ways parallel.

In an ideal situation the risk analysis is performed continuously to check all appearing changes and situations.

‘risk analysis'is mentioned in the‘analysis and selection'section of the framework. This will be discussed further in Section 2. 2. Joint research Centre (JRC)

risk analysis is seen as one of the methods contributing to the FTA EXERCISES. Weak signal and Wild Card analyses for instance are used tools in risk analyses concerning the strategic design of societies or companies, e g. 43 45.

Development of safety and risk analysis in the industrial context stems from nuclear industry, civil and military aviation,

The use of risk analysis became a common practice to evaluate the safety of processing, storing or transporting dangerous chemicals.

Tixier et al. 23, for instance, reported about 62 risk analysis methodologies. There are methods for mapping the hazards generally

Possibly the most frequently used risk analysis method in the world is Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) study

and demands of the technical risk analysis as defined in the standard IEC 60300-3-9 20 (see Fig. 3). The prerequisites for a successful risk assessment are:

A systematic risk analysis typically starts, after the data gathering, with the identification of hazards and the associated hazardous scenarios according to a specific procedure defined by the selected risk analysis method.

As an analogy to Fig. 3. The process of risk analysis, risk assessment and risk management 20.1167 R. Koivisto et al./

risk analysis methodologies still structure the risk assessment processmechanically. This systematic mechanisticway surely has benefits, which could also be applied in amore holistic approach.

The study addresses that the more the scope of risk analysis is moving into a not-so-well-known field the more the risk identification becomes the crucial part of the process 28.

INNORISK project aims at applying Back-pocket roadmap 30 (also called Agile Roadmap), SWOT analysis 31,32 and IBM's Signpost methodology tools together with Potential Problem/Opportunity (Risk analysis

risk analysis expert may know e g. roadmapping method, but does not understand that it is the most usable only in the prescription phase of the foresight process.

and risk analysis studies a common theoretical ground. Both models organise the knowledge making in three dimensional space generating the knowledge from personal and proprietary to common sense and public,

or risk analysis processes and more detailed analysis are applied in the later phases. In practice it seems that wild card

and weak signal analysis are very near to risk analysis ideology. Wild cards and weak signals can be compared to early warnings

The core benefit of risk assessment methods is absolutely the strict systemic character of the risk analysis techniques.

foresight studies may also benefit the systemic process common to the risk analysis processes. Risk assessment methods are fixed traditionally approaches,

Project/questions IRRIIS INNORISK CES How case studies contributed to risk analysis methodology? Scenarios should be as accurate as possible

in order to be able to be processed by risk analysis techniques. PPA/POA and risk map methods were applied in a foresight process.

A new risk analysis framework was created. How case studies contributed to risk assessment methodologies? A good modelling tool would be helpful to model the future interdependencies.

In general FTA APPROACH encourages to build new risk analysis techniques which are more capable of taken into consideration the longer time frames than have been common in risk analysis tradition before.

Risk assessment and management will benefit from the FTA APPROACH by gaining more holistic viewpoints. Due to the need of developing more holistic risk management processes responding the continuous change,

Index methods Environmental risk analysis Totally over 60 reported risk analysis methods Delphi, SWOT analysis, benchmarking, expert panels (new knowledge creation) Technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios (visions of the future) Constructive technology assessment,

Risk analysis of Technological Systems, Geneva, Switzerland, 1995.21 Center for Chemical process Safety (CCPS), Guidelines for Hazard Evaluation Procedures, 2nd Ed. AICHE, New york, USA, 1992

Quality Management of Safety and Risk analysis, Elsevier Science Publishers B. V.,Amsterdam, 1993, pp. 25 43.23 J. Tixier, G. Dussere, O. Salvi

, D. Gaston, Review of 62 risk analysis methodologies of industrial plants, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, vol. 15, Elsevier Science Ltd.

2002, s. 291 303.24 N. Wessberg, R. Molarius, J. Seppälä, S. Koskela, J. Pennanen, Environmental risk analysis for accidental emissions, J. Chem.

eds), Safety, Reliability and Risk analysis: Theory, Methods and Applications, Taylor & francis Group, London, 2009, ISBN 978-0-415-48513-5. 29 J. Paasi, P. Valkokari, P. Maijala

44 H. H. Willis, Using Risk analysis to Inform Intelligence Analysis. RAND Infrastructure, Safety and Environment,,

risk analysis, and foresight approach into one anticipatory methodological concept of strategic policy intelligence. In principle, this concept could be applied in the study of different kinds of societal objects and objectives, related to national innovation system, regions, research programmes or societal actors, engaging private enterprises and public organizations.

Risk Commission (2003), Ad hoc Commission on‘‘Revision of Risk analysis Procedures and Structures as well as of Standard Setting in the field of Environmental Health in the Federal republic of germany'',Final Report, Salzgitter Federal Radiological

impact checklists, state of the future index, multiple perspectives assessment Matrices Analogies, morphological analysis, cross-impact analyses Statistical analyses Risk analysis, correlations Trend analyses Growth

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