Risk

Emerging risks (8)
Environmental risks (4)
Risk (342)
Risk analysis (36)
Risk analysis methods (12)
Risk assessment (110)
Risk assessment methodology (9)
Risk governance (8)
Risk management (27)

Synopsis: Risk: Risk:

but acutely aware of the danger of losing focus as the demands of dclientst place more and more complexity in the field of application. 2. Process management

because we know too little about their advantages and disadvantages, their costs and opportunities and risks.

the aim is to negotiate consensus on risks and opportunities or at least achieve transparency about conflicting viewpoints,

The findings run the risk of being rooted not sufficiently in a scientific base, where the best available and often diverging sources of knowledge ought to be brought together in an explicit way

Econ. 5 (1977) 147 176.52 B. Schauer, R&d portfolio selection considering risk and project interrelations, Phd thesis, University of Technology Vienna, Vienna, 2007.

In Woodwisdom-Net, some‘slack'was built into the process schedule as a risk mitigation measure,

and mitigates the risk of ending up with a weak response to calls for proposals, for example. Another benefit is that the funding organizations can define the priorities based on a realistic understanding of what issues researchers are keen on pursuing

foresight in the risk society, Technovation 19 (6 7)( 1999) 413 421.2 T. Jewell, International foresight's contribution to globalisation, Foresight The Journal of Futures studies, Strategic thinking and Policy

& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 related patent applications and in literature databases for articles addressing the various risk aspects.

reduction of inventory risk for companies. 2014 3. 65 3. 42 1. 86 2. 35 2. 38 All public transport bookings, confirmation of transport services,

However, the large risk of little return-on-investment has stimulated another form of innovation chain initiated by MNCS shown in innovation chain 2. This shifts the risk to SMES which the MNC contracts for risky projects.

Thus MNCS attempt at shifting the risk to start-up companies which build on their own ties with the research community

Another obstacle came from the MNC perspective based on the risk of outsourcing the development of an integrated platform to SMES:

Developing an Integrated Policy Approach to Science, Technology, Risk and the Environment, Ashgate, Aldershot, 2005, pp. 45 66.24 S. K. Kassicieh, S. T. Walsh

or escape from the negative consequences of a‘risk society'.'The diversity of the above areas suggests that foresight process impacts should be interpreted through the lenses of epistemology, sociology, political science, management science and organisational theory.

not only in terms of the management of health-and environment-related risks, but also in terms of ensuring sustainable development. These two‘pillars',the‘knowledge society'and‘participatory governance',can become the common framework in

or cope with the negative consequences of a‘risk society'.'4 Notwithstanding the importance of knowledge in previous types of societies, several authors acknowledge a shift in the economic structure of modern societies away from a‘material'input driven economy towards a knowledge-based

It calls for the establishment of an environment that encourages risk taking and is characterised by reflexivity

The literature suggests that the emerging knowledge societies are also‘risk societies',characterised by decision-making conducted within an environment of increasingly uncertain or incomplete knowledge.

While active participation is demanded in a‘risk society, 'at the same time it is promoted by a‘knowledge society'via support for the development of more informed publics.

networking, informed publics) seem to be necessary to cope with a‘risk society'.'The findings of the literature review on what constitutes the major characteristics of the emerging knowledge

and risk societies are synthesised into a conceptual framework describing a more participatory‘knowledge society'.'This conceptual framework is illustrated in Fig. 1. 5 The three main groups of characteristics are illustrated by the three inner circles.

Apart from trying to identify potential future risks, foresight also facilitates the adoption of a holistic approach in terms of identifying possible impacts within and among different scenarios.

or escape from the negative consequences of a‘risk society'.'4. From the conceptual framework to an objectives hierarchy The conceptual framework used to characterise emerging knowledge societies

d) managing uncertainty/risk; and (e) improving flexibility and complex adaptation. The factors facilitating networking are (a) enhancing organisation position and reputation;(

or escape from the negative consequences of a‘risk society'.'This suggests that it is possible to assess foresight exercises in terms of their contribution to more participatory‘knowledge societies,

while also managing the risks effectively. We the editors believe this is a positive development as it signifies the potential of opening up a fruitful dialogue between the relatively young

and anticipate risks of established strategies 24, 25. The elaboration of scenarios supports self-reflection and learning as well as strengthens strategic thinking 26 by challenging individual and organizational worldviews 27.

This may indicate risks that have to be considered before implementing the solution. The lower circle calls for some caution in discarding these options

potential problems with quality control and the risk of creating new strong path dependencies. In the downturn scenario, assessment results were rather antagonistic.

while the risk of building up too much organizational overhead could be minimized. Furthermore, critical framework conditions were taken into consideration.

Collection of EFMN Briefs Part 1, Office for Official Publications of the European commission, Luxembourg, 2008.45 I. Chatrie, J. Rachidie, AGORA 2020 Transport, housing, urbanism and risk, in:

Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessmeen of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities,

risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES. The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes;

and consider the risks involved. The context, emphasis and time horizons of examination vary, however.

For instance, risk assessment in the context of industrial process safety aims to predict the risk caused by a failure, deviation,

in order to develop more proactive and systemic risk assessment that covers even new types of emerging risks (incl. risks related to new technologies and their introduction to the market).

the increasingly complex world creates new types of risks that shouldn't be bypassed with the examination of future opportunities, creation of shared visions and assessment of desired impacts.

development of proactive risk assessment methodologies for different corporate risk management purposes (identiffyin the vulnerability of corporate and process actions, managing the risks in occupational, industrial and environmental safety, managing business risks, etc.),

Weak signal and Wild Card analyses for instance are used tools in risk analyses concerning the strategic design of societies or companies, e g. 43 45.

Risk assessment and risk management concepts can refer e g. to risk assessment related to health risk, toxicology, ecology, food safety or industrial use 12,

and manage risks in a complex context was rapidly showing its success. The number of industrial accidents

Some methods are tailored to special risks, e g. environmental risks 24. Possibly the most frequently used risk analysis method in the world is Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) study

o data on the system being analysed and on all the associated substances, o operational model of the system under analysis, o systematic hazard identification procedure and risk estimation techniques,

Risk is defined as the combination of probability (frequency) and consequence of a certain scenario. Relevant probability data is seldom available

and as such, fully quantitative risk estimations are performed not normally in industry. Instead, semiquantiitativ procedures are applied typically.

Risk categories are defined according to consequence and probability ranges, and are represented generally in a matrix form.

According to this estimation, the risks can be classified as catastrophic, major, severe, or minor 20, and prioritised.

The risks are assessed then against the acceptability criteria, and the risk control measures are planned and applied based on this prioritisation.

It is recommended that the entire risk assessment procedure is done in brainstorming group sessions in which the participants are selected based on their relevant knowledge and experience of the industrial process.

risks are identified and removed, and risk analysis methods are designed to be a tool of systematic risk identificcatio process.

In traditional methods, risks are identified component by component. In recent years the approach towards more comprehensive and holistic risk management has strengthened.

Approaches like inherent safety 26 in process design as well as resilience engineering 27 in process operating address the complex nature of industrial process.

but on constant surveillance of the safety margins and levels of risks taken 39. Hence, the risk management paradigm is changing towards a more holistic approach.

One newapproach thatwidens the traditional field of risk assessmentmight open fromthe future-oriented, or foresighting, impact assessment (FIA) currently under development at VTT.

In this methodology, the concept of risk iswidened to consider the risks in the innovation processesmay these be either intra-corporate R&dor highly distributed

In FIA the risks are considered as emerging already in the innovation process, and cover such areas as investment, communication, trust and general development risks.

FIA thus steers the risk assessment to a more anticipatory and proactive direction. According to this new risk management paradigm

as well as finding ways to mitigate risks and adapt to risks and their consequences. The next section illuminates the synergies between FTA

and risk assessment methodologies by analysing the foresight design dimensions of three research projects. 3. Prospective projects illuminating possible synergies

The results of this analysis are presented in the following section. 3. 1. Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (IRRIIS) A case study of the use of foresight

and scenario methods in a proactive risk assessment of telecommunication and electric power infrastructures was conducted in an EU funded project Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (IRRIIS,

The study addresses that the more the scope of risk analysis is moving into a not-so-well-known field the more the risk identification becomes the crucial part of the process 28.

risks and uncertainties related to new businesses (INNORISK) The INNORISK project aims at creating new tools to manage the innovation process

in order to take into consideration potential opportunities and risks. The project is ongoing, but preliminary results sound already promising,

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 The INNORISK Managing opportunities, risks and uncertainties project is a 3-year (2006 2009) joint research project between the Corporate Foresight

and management of future uncertainties and risks in companies that are giving rise to new business 29.

33) and Risk Map methodology 34. All these methods are applied in an innovation process of a new product development.

Risk map/risk taxonomy is used in the INNORISK approach as a link between the fuzzy front end

The risk map can be used like a checklist during the front end phase in order to identify critical factors affecting commercialisation as early as possible.

and assessing risks and selecting risk reducing measures, but also about being able to respond quickly

and effectively to realised threats as they arise. The experiences of the method development in the INNORISK case companies have been positive.

Active involvement of the decision makers in the analysis allowed them to have a broad and realistic image about opportunities and risks related to the new (potential) business.

A generic model of the risk assessment procedure, applicable within the Nordic countries, will initially be framed.

risk identification model and risk/opportunity table, and a method for risk estimation and evaluation.

The seasonal plan, for instance, aims at stimulating the risk identification process by listing the normal seasonal routines of the hydropower plant,

e g. spring floods or ice cover freezing over the river in the 2 E-mail discussions with Pasi Valkokari in INNORISK project March 6th 2009.3 E-mail discussions with Pasi Valkokari in INNORISK project March 6th

2009.1169 R. Koivisto et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 autumn. Potential climate change effects are added then to the seasonal plan

All the identified risks and opportunities are mapped on the fourfold table, and these in turn guide the company on how to deal with the identified challenge:

In the context of the Nordic hydropower production and distribution, for instance, the most threatening scenarios are selected for the risk estimation and evaluation process.

in order to illustrate the potentiality of the future and possible future risks. The challenge of making a bridge between foresight

The generation phase or the prognosis phase of the FTA PROCESS resembles the hazard/risk identification phase in risk assessment

Hazard/risk estimation and evaluation phases, in turn, are identified phases where risks are estimated and evaluated by modelling them either quantitatively, semi-quantitatively or qualitatively.

The same kind of activity is happening in the FTA action phase. The ultimate meaning of this phase is to arrange the knowledge in such a form that it is easy to use in decision making.

Also the action proposal and risk reduction/control phases share similarities to the practices and activities in the FTA action or prescription phase.

Instead of scanning the risks in the future by studying the process component by component a more holistic viewpoint would be possible.

For example, risk map methodology is more general than for instance the HAZOP method. However the case projects show that there is potential in integrating the risk assessment and the FTA METHODOLOGIES.

Since future and risks are always ontologically unknown to us, there exist no facts about the future

and risks are always contingent. Therefore, we are forced to collect and construct the knowledge create an understanding and share it in networks of people.

and creating the best possible knowledge of the future and risks, and being all the time aware of the possible threats and opportunities of the complex world,

ready to mitigate the risk or to adapt to a changing situation, or take advantage of it. 5. Conclusions This paper has compared the basic characteristics of FTA and risk assessment processes,

However, risk assessments utilize more systematic and standardised methods, especiaall in risk identification phase. Risk assessment process requires also a more detailed description of the target of the analysis Table 1 The lessons learned from the case projects.

PPA/POA and risk map methods were applied in a foresight process. A new risk analysis framework was created.

and assessing risks, but also about being able to respond quickly and effectively to the realised threats.

How case studies contributed to risk resilience thinking? Scenario building was based on large and vague trend analysis. The innovation process was seen as a whole.

and assess risks now and in the future. The risk is caused by a failure, deviation, malfunction or error in an industrial system or operation.

To create and arrange the knowledge about risks in order to help the corporate decision making. To identify possible future developments, driving forces, emerging technologies, barriers, threats and opportunities related to a broader socio-technoeconnomi system.

To arrange the knowledge in such a format that is easy to use in decision making. Results A report where identified

assessed and classified risks are described: Risk=f (Probability, Consequences), the biggest risks are tried to be managed first.

Outlooks, proposals of the future developments, scenarios, visions, roadmaps, action recommendations. Time horizon 0 5 years 5 50 years Phases Scope definition, risk identification, risk estimation (probability, consequences), risk evaluation The pre foresight phase

, the recruitment phase, the generation phase Standards BS 8800, OHSAS 18001, ISO guides, IEC standards None existing, creative openness Methods Hazop Potential problem analysis

Innorisk-project, www. vtt. fi/innorisk, Managing Opportunities, Risk and Uncertainties in New Business Creation Working Report, VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Tampere

Managing commercialisation risks in innovation development: linking front end and commercialisation. In: K. R. E. Huizingh, M. Torkkeli, S. Conn and I. Bitran (eds.

towards a new safety paradigm, Journal of Risk Research 10 (7)( 2007) 959 975 October 2007.

Yet, the tools for dealing with uncertainty, for evaluating the adequate return for risk-taking,

The quantitative techniques available to us are not yet capable of quantifying risk in ways other than probability.

Managers often do not know what risks are associated with particular strategies. A lot of work is needed here. 5. Planning in nonlinear,

which warned of the dangers of a 9-11-scale terrorist attack, examined 20 scenario studies of U s. national security

diverse audiences for public policy scenarios often require some type of information about relative risks. In addition, the question of a potential correlation between scenario approaches and impacts and effectiveness of use require further evaluative efforts.

lessons from regional projects, Development 47 (4)( 2004) 62 72.24 M. B. A. van Asselt, Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk:

and health risks of nano artifacts along with the ethical and legal issues arising as a result of the widespread use of these products.

and effectiveness of governance Realising societal benefits Credibility and trust for good governance and openness to public scrutiny of risks and expectations Protection of fundamental rights in the absence of the precautionary principle through unavoidable situations.

At present, during its early stages, a wide variety of actors are anticipating both on the potential benefits and risks of the development of nanotechnologies and their embedment into markets and into society.

and risks that may become reality as nanotechnology matures. It is uncertain what sort of sectors will be impacted

uncertain and involve multiple actors working at multiple levels shot through with anticipatory strategies and expectations on risks and benefits of the emerging technology field.

For a detailed account of the developments of the nano risk debate and the key elements of RRI see van Amerom and Rip 35 and Kearnes and Rip 36.

There was a widely recognised uncertainty about the potential impacts and risks, whilst in the meantime proposals for regulation were being formulated

production and use of nanoparticles and the consideration of risks of nanotechnology. 10 Fig. 3 visualizes this (up to 2008.

and new ways of managing them e g. the Risk Framework for Nanotechnology put forward by the unusual alliance of Dupont and Environmental Defence.

similar to health risk labelling with the privacy risk label This product is tracked system placed on food packaging (a response to bloggers'insistence on transparency).

Although no linkages between the projects occurs there the ethical and risk debate begins to separate to real issues (of health,

roles and responsibilities of researchers and the issues around risk of nanoparticles. The scenario in Box 4 will be shown in more detail in Section 5. 4. 2. The effect of these scenarios in the workshop The three scenarios together covered the various positions and expectations of those actors active in the debate around RRI.

which covered locating the responsibility of risk evaluation in the value chain, the ethics of promising (by researchers and firms),

the ethical and risk debate begins to separate to real issues (of health, environmental and safety issues of nano production) and speculation on broader ethical debates around Human Enhancement, Justice,

The question of risk thresholds is discussed often especially around consumer safety and occupational health and safety.

Having been to a number of meetings on risk, I see that many technology promoters take an adverse stance towards precaution,

Public outcry as consumer organisations identify major issues in a number of sectors which could hold potential risk with no protection for the consumer (the house of cards collapses) Window of opportunity for selectors:

the emergence of windows of opportunity for action (stemming from the Finnish worker case being part of the coevollutio of emerging nanotechnology options in paper production and risk and regulation landscape),

and the risk of bowing to the concentric bias of enactors who need scenarios to guide them to identify

towards risk society or ecological modernization of scenarios. Futures research Quarterly 17, no. 2: 33 55.

but the risk associated with this is loss of some sense of ownership. 7. 6. Mistakes were made,

thus reducing the risk of counterproductive interference. In addition, four crosscutting topics were included in the work of all panels:(

in exploring different possible futures and understanding future risks. Ling (2002,127, n9) writes that‘All policy makers are expected to think about the risks associated with a policy

and how these might best be managed'.'Yet the uncertainty of different scenarios is seen also as‘politically weak

The term‘visioning'itself has been characterised as being‘so vague in practise that it sometimes runs the risk of being rendered meaningless'(Shipley et al. 2004,196.

'Foresight is thus a coordinated response to uncertainty and risk. Giddens (1991,29) argues that the‘popularity of futurology in the system of high modernity is not an eccentric preoccupation...

Health, Risk and Society 4: 259 72. Brown, N, . and M. Michael. 2003. A sociology of expectations:

Risk and environment as legitimatory discourses of technology: reflexivity inside out? Current Sociology 50, no. 3: 459 477.

the risk of arriving at‘conventional'results might have been greater. Third, some panels (e g. Serviic and service innovations) had rather new and evocative titles.

The documents also mitigated the risk that two chairmen would have exercised an unduly strong influence on the report contents.

it is worth highlighting that the identification of the competence area Assessment and management of global risks

Global economy Assessment and management of global risks Impacts of business globalisation on national economies Management of innovation processes panel reports. 5 The first part of the synthesis report summarised selected driving forces

while avoiding the risks of imposing too onerous a methodology that might be ineffective or even resented by the panels.

This framework helped mitigate the risk that the panel discussions would drift to the structural issues

but growing public concern over their supposed environmental and health risks led several EU countries to demand the moratorium.

Uncertainties and risks have proliferated during the past decade as a result of the increasing complexity of and turbulence in the marketplaces in

the risk of deciding to pursue a particular course of action increases. Analyst Mark Buchanan

writing in strategy+business 1, refers to these new types and levels of risk as interdependent risks.

Interdependent risks constitute a form of risk that requires adjustment on the part of managers and planners accustomed to more direct and predictable cause-and-effect chains of events and their associated risk assessments.

Junior employees do not want to risk looking bad. Senior managers must understand their role (refraining from normal decision-making, judgmental behavior patterns),

and that, given the wide range of risk/reward profiles among the selected areas, that a portfolio approach should be adopted.

or take additional risks and other factors such as regulation and competition are favourable. Put simply, a lead market provides a launch platform for innovations

and thinking on strategic trends on specific risks highlighting significant defence and security implications. The findings consist in probability based outcomes.

by the Nordic council. d The EU Integrated Project IRRIIS Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems. e Commissioned by the Office of the National science Advisor (ONSA.

the term refers to the condition of being protected against danger or loss that originate from outside such as war, disaster, civil unrest, vandalism, or sabotage.

http://www. h2foresight. info (2009-11-10). 19 The EU Integrated Project IRRIIS Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems, available at:

10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.005 2. FTA and knowledge management Talking about FTA in terms of‘‘knowledge''may seem to risk dealing in oxymorons.

or celebrations of transhumanism but also to more‘‘mundane''exploration of future opportunities and risks associated with large-scale projects

and those which involve controversial decisions about risks and impacts of development (for example, nuclear technology,

whom they perceive to be at risk of being coopted by those in power.)The second important factor is the‘‘crisis of science policy''more generally as pressures to restrict burgeoning public expenditure collided with demands from Big science

and Royal Academy of Engineering launched a major consultation exercise exploring risks as well as opportunities. These bodies set up an independent working group,

‘‘dark scenarios''explicating key risks and vulnerabilities associated with the use of Ami technologies and services.

The paper concludes with those issues in which the FTA COMMUNITY is starting to devote attention to as well as those it still ought to consider. 2. History Governance is an outcome of the continual battle between risk and regulation.

Risk is ubiquitous to all life but in human societies it has perceptual and physical components infecting matters relating to society, science and technology, economics, ecology, politics and value/norms:

hence the source of risk's ubiquity. Ulrich Beck 2 coined the term‘the risk society'in 1986,

but this was some time after the UK's Royal Society embarked, in 1981, on a series of conferences on the assessment and perception of risk.

Risk and perceptions of it are closely related to fear making the proper understanding of the real physical nature of risk of prime importance to framing regulations where the politics of fear may intrude irrationally.

Regulations are framed to attempt to calm the perceptions of risk and to control or reduce fear

and to make life easier. Rarely is eliminated it as the world is rarely what the public perceives it to be.

and glocalisation and to the need to anticipate the future needs to manage risk and regulation.

and their risks are an important part of the emerging landscape. At this point there is much force to Whitehead's perception that‘Science is concerned with generalities.

which is threatened through risk, regulation and governance. The relationship between advances in technology and human social development was established during the Enlightenment well before the notion of‘economics'was born as a cultural invention, rather than as a pseudo-objective science.

The underlying rationale often risks confusing public relations with social and business results. All four schools of thought share the same weakness 29:

Factors such as public awareness of industrial and technological risk, growing instances of social resistance to new technologies,

brought about by the so-called risk society, are shaping innovation processes. Hence it is important to be clear that there is a need for emerging technologies to be subject to social scrutiny.

and process contribute to governance modes that are more responsive to risk society perceptions, values and apprehensions.

Are conventional technocratic modes of regulation yielding to governance modes that are more responsive to risk society perceptions, values and apprehensions?

which depends on an organisations willingness to invest in the face of real and anticipated risks

2 B. Ulrich, Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity, Sage, London, 1992.3 F. Soddy, Cartesian Economics:

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