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Synopsis: Risk: Risk assessment:

innovation policy development and others inclined toward the provocation of innovation an opportunity to learn some new approaches as well as to reflect further upon some familiar tools such as risk assessment being profiled re within the new context of FTA.

Koivisto et al. examine how traditions of risk assessment are being adapted to the new more agile and greater uncertainties context of FTA.

Integrating Future-oriented technology analysis and Risk assessment (RA) Methodologies provides a clear example of where an older discipline meets a new one

with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis.

and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools. 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Foresight methodology Technology assessment Technology analysis Risk assessment Risk analysis Roadmapping 1. Introduction The practices in foresight, technology assessment and industrial risk assessment processes are in many ways parallel.

For instance, risk assessment in the context of industrial process safety aims to predict the risk caused by a failure, deviation,

in risk assessment the focus has typically been in negative outcomes whereas in foresight exercises the positive developments like innovation possibilities has Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Corresponding author.

In particular, the aim of this paper is to examine the possibilities of integrating systematic risk assessment with interactive foresight

and its multidisciplinary technology foresight team, consisting of researchers with experience on foresight, technology assessment and risk assessment studies,

in order to develop more proactive and systemic risk assessment that covers even new types of emerging risks (incl. risks related to new technologies and their introduction to the market).

On the other hand, the development of foresight and technology assessment methodologies is expected to benefit from the experiences of the industrial risk assessment tradition:

Development of an integrated approach that combines the strengths of FTA and risk assessment traditions is not,

Opening up a fruitful dialogue among the FTA researchers and professionals facilitates also mutual learning across the FTA and risk assessment communities.

The paper builds on VTT experience in a variety of prospective risk assessment contexts (information-based infrastructures

new businesses, climate adaptation) and some recent methodological considerations of the VTT foresight team (especially modular foresight/risk assessment process design that allows flexible tailoring of the process for varying needs and objectives.

Foresight and risk assessment activities are considered increasingly important throughout the R&d value chain, stressing the need for a flexible, integrative approach.

which risk assessment and FTA METHODOLOGIES and tools can be integrated systematically on the basis of the VTT experiences.

and positions these projects according to important foresight design dimensions. o Section 4 paves the way towards a modular and integrative approach by discussing the common and complementary features of risk assessment

and FTA PROCESSES. o Section 5 points out preliminary conclusions and directions for further research. 2. Methods of FTA and risk assessment 2. 1. The methods of future-oriented technology analysis Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) can be seen as a common

Risk assessment and risk management concepts can refer e g. to risk assessment related to health risk, toxicology, ecology, food safety or industrial use 12,

but also economical analysis. This section describes the methodological developments of risk assessment in the context of industrial safety,

which we have chosen to be the risk assessment focus in this paper an important area with the well-established and relatively long risk assessment tradition,

and demands of the technical risk analysis as defined in the standard IEC 60300-3-9 20 (see Fig. 3). The prerequisites for a successful risk assessment are:

It is recommended that the entire risk assessment procedure is done in brainstorming group sessions in which the participants are selected based on their relevant knowledge and experience of the industrial process.

As an analogy to Fig. 3. The process of risk analysis, risk assessment and risk management 20.1167 R. Koivisto et al./

risk analysis methodologies still structure the risk assessment processmechanically. This systematic mechanisticway surely has benefits, which could also be applied in amore holistic approach.

FIA thus steers the risk assessment to a more anticipatory and proactive direction. According to this new risk management paradigm

and risk assessment some relevant projects were analysed. These projects are chosen based on the authors'knowledge, experiences and/or involvement in the projects.

and scenario methods in a proactive risk assessment of telecommunication and electric power infrastructures was conducted in an EU funded project Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (IRRIIS,

The aim was to study the possibilities of proactive risk assessment and management of critical infrastructures based on the integration of risk assessment and scenario development methods.

The results of the process showed that the created scenarios were too generic to apply the traditional (process safety) risk assessment methods

This kind of scenarios cannot sufficiently be analysed by the currently available risk assessment methods, because these methods require more detailed knowledge of the target to be analysed:

The project states that a good modelling tool would help to model the future interdependencies supported by an integration of the scenario work and the systematic risk assessment. 3. 2. Managing opportunities,

and show the fruitful link between the foresight and risk assessment methods. 1168 R. Koivisto et al./

opportunity recognition (the fuzzy front end), conceptualisation and commercialisatiion Foresight and risk assessment are essential parts of each stage.

as a result of the method development. 3 3. 3. Climate change adaptation and risk assessment (CES) A joint project concerning the climate change adaptation in Finland

Risk assessment methods to evaluate the uncertainties and consequences of the climate change affecting the Nordic energy production system are developed in the project.

The risk assessment procedure is developed at the first stage of a case study concerning Nordic hydropower production 37.

The tools to apply the future-oriented risk assessment are developed during this process, and they are at this preliminary stage as follows:

the general risk assessment procedure, guidelines for gathering the background information, the seasonal plan, risk identification model

Risk assessment procedure in CES is designed on the basis of brainstorming sessions between power plant operators and managers as well as climate change experts.

Hence, it is also important that social aspects are addressed in the risk assessment procedure. Herein the foresight methodologies considering the possible changes in the society may be helpful.

CES project, for example, stresses the operational level risk assessment whereas the INNORISK project's starting point is corporate strategic decision making.

The analysis of this small amount of project material indicates that systematic risk assessment methods tend to direct the analysis towards instrumental, consensual and exclusive analysis of the future.

and therefore not always productive, to apply systematic risk assessment methods together with more loosely formulated foresight approaches

some methods are better in scanning the situation in the early stage of the risk assessment process

and concrete level case studies follow the technical risk assessment tradition. 4. Towards an integrated approach 4. 1. Risk assessment

and FTA PROCESS seeking common ground There are constitutive similarities between risk assessment and FTA PROCESSES. Both processes start with the scope definition/pre foresight phases,

Recruitment phase of the FTA is included also in the scope definition phase in risk assessment, when possible and relevant experts and stakeholders are collected.

The generation phase or the prognosis phase of the FTA PROCESS resembles the hazard/risk identification phase in risk assessment

The last phase of the FTA PROCESS namely the renewal phase is also present in the risk assessment process

and accuracy of the analysis. The foresight process as well as the risk assessment process is a knowledge making process.

In addition, business, policy making and the whole broad spectrum of decision making call for future-oriented technology analysis as well as risk assessment. Foresight methods and activities approve the uncertainty linked to the different futures

The core benefit of risk assessment methods is absolutely the strict systemic character of the risk analysis techniques.

Risk assessment methods are fixed traditionally approaches, e g. focused on a certain industrial plant or specific chemical or event (Fig. 5). They typically are short-term studies,

and risk assessment traditions will be profitable at least the integration process would be easiest to carry on in this environment,

and risk assessment traditions in emerging risk assessment would then help in applying the more contingent and holistic approach in more fixed and short time risk assessment exercises.

Fig. 5. The relationships between risk assessment and FTA METHODS according to the time frame and approach. 1172 R. Koivisto et al./

and CES) show that it is not easy to integrate systematic risk assessment and foresight methods. In IRRIIS project the results show that risk assessment methods are too detailed for analysing loosely constructed scenarios.

Risk assessment methods require detailed description of the analysis target, at least a plan. The future target, e g. a scenario, may not have a sufficient level of detail.

It was noticed also that both processes FTA or risk assessment processes can be very detailed processes focusing on certain area or place,

or they can be large scanning processes. For instance, scenario analysis may be just a little part of the whole foresight process and,

therefore, conducting risk assessment only to the produced scenarios may be difficult. Another option may be to keep the risk assessment approach in the process during the whole foresight exercise.

In some way the technology assessment is close to risk assessment methods, but the scope might still be vaguer than in risk assessment processes in industrial applications.

IRRIIS and CES especially reveal the gap between the future-oriented analysis and the technological system stressed risk assessment processes.

In INNORISK project the challenge has somehow been easier probably because the risk assessment methods applied have been in a more general and not so detailed level.

For example, risk map methodology is more general than for instance the HAZOP method. However the case projects show that there is potential in integrating the risk assessment and the FTA METHODOLOGIES.

In our view, the most promising benefit in integrating risk assessment and FTA APPROACHES seems to be the aspect of creating safety and opening up new future possibilities.

The holistic future-oriented technology assessment or foresight methodologies tend to assess and create the future simultaneously. The same idea belongs also to the holistic risk management where safety is created in the process by evolving the intrinsic safety potential of the process.

In both technology and risk assessment this is made by changing mindsets, building trust among actors and developing better preparedness for the change,

which is constantly present. The second benefit may come from the participatory and networking approach of different expert analyses.

or take advantage of it. 5. Conclusions This paper has compared the basic characteristics of FTA and risk assessment processes,

in business and in the society in general is crucial for both FTA and risk assessment. There is, therefore, a common ground shared by both approaches.

However, risk assessments utilize more systematic and standardised methods, especiaall in risk identification phase. Risk assessment process requires also a more detailed description of the target of the analysis Table 1 The lessons learned from the case projects.

Project/questions IRRIIS INNORISK CES How case studies contributed to risk analysis methodology? Scenarios should be as accurate as possible

and Signpost foresight methods were integrated in the risk assessment process. Risk analysis methods and climate change scenarios were integrated. How case studies contributed to risk management methodology?

The results show that the integration of proactive risk assessment and scenario methods is challenging. The study showed that risk management is not just about identifying

In turn, there is a shift towards a more contingent approach also in risk assessment as is in FTA APPROACH.

For example, in case of emerging risks new methods applying the sufficient features of as well risk assessment as FTA APPROACHES are welcome.

The new approach future-oriented impact assessment (FIA) is seen also promising in integrating methodologically risk assessment into the whole innovation process.

In Table 2 the characteristics and typical processes and methods of risk assessment and future-oriented technology analyses, as well as future expectations concerning their development,

Risk assessment and management will benefit from the FTA APPROACH by gaining more holistic viewpoints. Due to the need of developing more holistic risk management processes responding the continuous change,

the future risk assessment shows up as a methodology that should increasingly adapt supplementary elements from many different approaches such as FTA.

Risk assessment (focus on the context of industrial safety) Future-oriented technology analysis Aim To identify and assess risks now and in the future.

Technology assessment for managers, Routledge, London, 1998.12 R. Fairman, C. D. Mead, P. W. Williams, Environmental risk assessment approaches, experience and information sources, European Environment

Concepts and Precepts, Ashgate Publishing Ltd, Hampshire, 2006, pp. 9 17,2006. 28 T. Uusitalo, R. Koivisto and W. Schmit, Proactive risk assessment of critical infrastructures.

ISPIM, 2008.37 R. Molarius, N. Wessberg, J. Keränen, J. Schabel, Creating a climate change risk assessment procedure hydropower plant case, Finland,

Raija Koivisto has over twenty years experience in safety, security, risk assessment and foresight related research at VTT.

but signals a recognition that the consideraatio of counterfactual possibilities is intrinsic to reflexivity in the context of risk assessment and evaluation'.

and planners accustomed to more direct and predictable cause-and-effect chains of events and their associated risk assessments.

We can point here to such approaches as risk assessment, roadmapping, and some specific tools of operations management and operational research (such as DEMATEL,

and risk assessment approaches (see 24), two recent examples where a complementary approach was adopted retroactively come to mind:

K. Steinmueller, Thinking about The Future-Strategic Anticipation and RAHS by Risk assessment and Horizon scanning (RAHS), National Security Coordination Secretariat, Singapore, 2008.9 M. P. Barber,

and a risk assessment can be made; while noise effects on human creativity may be impossible to parameterise

She has more than 20 years'experience in safety, security, risk assessment, and foresight-related research in VTT.

6 The Risk assessment and Horizon scanning Initiative (Singapore) developed a Service Oriented Based Horizon scanning Architecture (SOSA) allowing sharing perspectives on data sets

Sci. 17 (2008) 329 348.25 R. Zimmer, R. Hertel, G.-F. Böl, Bfr Consumer Conference Nanotechnology, Federal Institute for Risk assessment, Berlin

Horizon scanning Centre, the Risk assessment and Horizon scanning (RAHS) programme in Singapore, among others. Many of the specific projects undertaken by these different organisations are documented well.

A special national horizon scanning activity is taking place in Singapore under the Risk assessment and Horizon scanning programme

and researchers (Mendonc¸a et al. 2009) Emerging issues Beyond horizon scanning the concept of emerging issues is used also in the area of risk assessment (Marvin et al. 2009), in the field of environmental issues (Sutherland et al. 2010) and in organisations in their environmental scanning (Morrison 1992).

Steinmu ller, K. 2011)‘ Wild Cards Preparing for the unpredicttable Wild cards in the framework of risk assessment and horizon scanning,

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