Synopsis: Risk: Risk:

and risk managers define vulnerabilities within a given system and to then consider what type of event might de-stabilise that system.

and need for management Aging/labor force ratio creating tensions Negative prospects from genetic manipulation‘‘Privacy loss''as 21st century externality Pandemic risks increase Genetically designed children will be possible Dematerialisation the West

religious and team sport identities Changes in health risk perception Ethical investment in development projects to promote sustainability Science & Tech. 46 Maturation of S, T and Humanities relationship

manage and minimise risk within a framework that seeks to eliminate uncertainty, as opposed to recognising its inevitability.

and to reduce risks and uncertainties in transport decision-making. In a second paper, Horton argues that policy-making needs to assume that unexpected disruptive events will happen even with the best horizon scanning system in place.

The article also examines the prospective perils that systematically applying FTA to Law may bring about.

risk and uncertainties should be reduced; unintended effects should be avoided. A variety of tools and methods of rather different character are applied,

It juxtaposes a problem typology and a typology of methods Keywords FTA METHODS, Transport planning, Risks, Uncertainties, Unintended effects, Uncertainty management,

notwithstanding that political rhetoric tends to feed the impression that risk and uncertainties can be excluded or a least controlled.

In doing so, there is a need to look at risks and uncertainties that could lead to unintended effects. 2. The problem:

risks and uncertainties Uncertainty and risk are only in very rare cases a consideration in transportation planning and transportation policy decision making.

and risks in decision making is the object of academic study and scientific debate (see for example Renn 2008) for a long time.

VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 283 Risk, uncertainties and unintended effects are obviously a problem for transport planning.

Knight, in his widely acknowledged conceptualisation of risks, distinguished between‘‘risk, ''which involved effects for which knowledge and parameters are available to assess the likelihood of an outcome,

and‘‘uncertainty'',referring to a more genuine lack of systematic understanding of causal relations (Knight 1921, see also Runde 1998).

While risk is a quantifiable parameter where there is both significant scientific knowledge about the probabilities of the occurrence of certain effects and reliable knowledge about the nature and extent of possible harm,

Kleindorfer (2008, p. 7) distinguishes between‘‘epistemic risks, ''which arise from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate model

and‘‘aleatory risks'',that arise from randomness inherent in the phenomena (though this randomness itself can be defined

A category that is, in principle, related to what is called risk in the Knightian sense. Solid knowledge is already available.

athe reader should note that risk has various meanings, depending on the scientific discipline within which it is used.

Building on the work of the German Risk Commission (Risk Commission 2003), in the context of this paper risk is understood, in its economic/toxicological/engineering sciences definition,

and quantification of knowns rather than for the. focus on unknowns (uncertainties) detection of unknowns. main focus on knowns (risks) Examples:

and structurally closed methods in a careful and transparent manner. 5. Conclusions Policy interventions in the transport sector have to consider risks and uncertainties,

and it helps to sharpen sensitivity to risk and uncertainty in planning processes. Further, the categorisation increases awareness for a more careful design and integration of structurally open methods.

Flyvbjerg, B.,Bruzelius, N. and Rothengatter, W. 2003), Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge.

www. tekno. dk/europta Knight, F. H. 1921), Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.

Risk Commission (2003), Ad hoc Commission on‘‘Revision of Risk analysis Procedures and Structures as well as of Standard Setting in the field of Environmental Health in the Federal republic of germany'',Final Report, Salzgitter Federal Radiological

Runde, J. 1998),‘Clarifying Frank Knight's discussion of the meaning of risk and uncertainty'',Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 22, pp. 539-46.

providing opportunities for risk-spreading, and undertaking cost-benefit analysis. 2. Create an enabling environment for variation by facilitating conditions that enable societies to create alternative approaches to achieve a common objective

and deployment of these different visions through appropriate policies to minimize risks 2. Design and use a mix of policy instruments to achieve a single policy objective 2. Review of the efficiency of the policy options as newer conditions unfold

and emerge 3. Identify and characterise the potential risks of the different visions 3. Provide a range of policy options 3. Monitor

and evaluate the policy instruments deployed to promote variation 4. Identify alternative policy options that can minimize the impacts from the any identified risks 4. Remove the barriers that hinder the adoption of these strategies 4. Incorporate feedback from the‘‘grassroots''level

lies a hidden risk in using numerical values to describe possible future events. Calculations often oversimplify possible development paths,

Another risk of this approach is that calculations and assessment of, for example, energy use of some industrial processes,

The Nanosafe project assesses the risks involved in the production handling and use of nanoparticles in industrial processes and products,

The results are expected to indicate risks to workers and consumers, and to recommend regulatory measures and codes of practice.

The big challenge is to satisfy multiple and diverse social demands without putting the sustainability principles at risk.

The article also examines the prospective perils that systematically applying FTA to law may bring about.

and risk, neglecting as a consequence the use of forecasting techniques, foresight methods and technology assessment procedures.

as otherwise the suggested application of fta to Law may run the risk of losing credibility in the eyes of policy and decision makers. 4. 2. 2 Neutrality and objectivity.

In defending the application of fta to Law we may run the risk of rendering the lawmaking process even less transparent and controllable.

In other words, we may run the risk of having a specific vision of the future directly produced

avoiding thus the risk of having the future (either envisaged in the form of scenario,

An eventual systematic application of fta to Law runs the risk of blurring the boundaries between Science and Law,

and technological risks, overcoming problems of legitimacy and technology conflicts. It produces knowledge, orientation and procedures to deal with societal challenges in coping with technology.

as an early warning of technological risks and unintended consequences, later also as a tool for an early diagnosis of the chances and potential of technology.

and the United states. Especially the risks of nanotechnology from the suspected asbestos-like properties of some nanoscopic materials and the resulting dangers for human health to the potential thread by self-replicating nanobots turning the entire world into dgrey

and risks and calls for technology assessment of these technologies, political requirements to orientate R&d budgets on the potential contribution of new developments to sustainable development puts some pressure on the TA practitioner.

and risks of nanotechnology. Very often, in these discussions the existing or expected benefits arising from nanotechnology-based

Finally, roadmapping could support the conceptualisation of Nano-TA as a dreal timet-investigation and assessment of chances and risk,

One he labelled as risk and the other as‘true'uncertainty. Risk, according to Knight, was associated with events where outcomes could be known using probability distributions,

How would the risk of disaster and the need for disaster management have been assessed? How would the possible social

When the promised specifications run the risk of not being met, additional measures are needed, such as entering into strategic alliances.

not only by their own estimates of revenues and risks, but also by what they know or suspect about other investors.

Some argue that foresight studies run the risk to reinforce existing paths and thus contribute to lock in (Jacobsson and Johnson 2000;

The same risks loom for the objectives of networking and vision building: they may reproduce images

so there is a constant danger of overcapacity. The industry has also been exposed increasingly to rising raw material prices,

Management system FTA roles Decide to be in business FTA supports mutual learning and shared understanding of network actors'views and feelings as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes, all of

and risk that accompanies any form of decision-making. Foresight demands thatwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'be in mind constantly.

Both forecasting and technology assessmeen provide a more factual and numerical understanding of a business's financial and technical risks

focus on processes and activities planning-Change factors as processes and activities interdependence-Decision based on risk/reward-Integration starts;

Better context also enables better avoidance of duplicative efforts and better knowledge of research risks.

For solar cells, there are particulaarl toxic materials that could pose dangers during extraction processing, and manufacturing processes.

How do they fit within the risk and regulation landscape? Are the protocols for handling such substances in place?

Is the risk framework adequaate The innovation pathways call attention to a need to address such issues that could affect DSSC development

and 5. risk and damage containment after natural and technogenous disasters. Eighty-two topics were formulated for these five thematic areas, in the form of briefly described S&t results, promising technologies or innovation products (e g.‘‘

contribution to innovative relevant projects, availability of human resources (researchers, engineers and technicians), required level of funding, fixed assets and others Estimation of resources and risks List

''and‘‘Maximization of nuclear reactor safety/economic in operation, optimization of the new nuclear reactor design and efficiency of monitoring/lowering the risk by optimization and actively use of information technology''.

risking that this ambition would compromise rigour, due to lack of skills, miss some major factors that cannot be identified by these techniques,

In other words, when dealing with issues surrounded by risk, uncertainty, and ignorance typically issues being dealt with by FTA the value of models is (at least) as much in the process as in the output. 8 Another common misconception associates subjectivity and value judgement to qualitative processes,

is therefore of the essence. 9 8 During the 2011 FTA Conference a lively discussion was devoted to the shift of FTA usage from exploring potential risks to inspiring sustainable innovation.

risks and traps that require consideration. It could be adapted to serve as an FTA starter kit for combining methods.

thus also decreasing the risk of stakeholders dominating the FTA PROCESS. 14 The importance of this in the context of this paper lies in keeping a balance in participation of stakeholders

Change 77 (2010) 34 49.44 R. Lempert, M. Collins, Managing the risk of uncertain threshold response:

and precautionary approaches, Risk Anal. 24 (2007) 1009 1026.45 E. Störmer, B. Truffer, D. Dominguez, W. Gujer, A. Herlyn, H. Hiessl, H

Third party risk Methodology developed by the National Air Traffic Services (NATS) for third-party risk 42,43 the NATS methodology has been extended to apply to multiple runways 49,50.

A Methodology for Calculation Individual Risk due to Aircraft Accidents Near Airports, National Air Traffic Services Ltd, London, UK, 2000.44 C. Hamarat, J

with a risk of diluting a sense of urgency. In addition, our analysis indicates that scenarios with a strong focus on consensus during the development are often too vague and too broad for defining tangible innovation opportunities.

This links well with the concept of risk-society 69 and risk management. Our analysis suggests that this can be contributed partly to the selected process design for developing the scenarios.

and consensus increases a risk of diluting a sense of urgency. During the scenario exercise, consensus may not be appropriate to promote differences

innovation Risk of not reaching out to key (technological) actors 440 P. De Smedt et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 acknowledge the limits of our analysis:

foresight in the risk society, Technovation 19 (1999) 413 421.12 H. Linstone, On discounting the future, Technol.

How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change, Pearson, Prentice hall, New york, 2006.69 U. Beck, Ecological Politics in an Age of Risk, Polity Press, Cambridge, 1995.70 L. M. Ricard, K

and identifying and reacting to potential risks. At the turn of the century, nanotechnology was discussed mainly with regard to content (future applications), not with regard to the future decision-making processes and the participation of stakeholders,

After the establishment of public funding programs in some countries and increasing risk debates, anticipatory activities included a wide range of stakeholders from politics, academia, industry and NGOS,

The Coming Era of Nanotechnology 17, Drexler developed far reaching new ideas of the possibilities and risks of technologies on the nanoscale.

Since 2004, risk has become the subject of political concern as well as the subject of analysis. Public opinion about nanotechnology

and public perceptions about its risks and future benefits has been analyzed extensively 40,41 and the need for risk governance has been expressed 42.

identified more than 25 examples of German dialogue processes concerned with the potential benefits and risks of nanotechnologies.

and risks of nanotechnologies and to discuss the responsible use of nanomaterials. In 2007, the Nano-Initiative Action Plan 2010 emerged as an important part of the high-tech strategy of the German government.

A broader concept of responsible development of nanotechnology in general was developed not (only the identification of risks for safe and responsible handling) 52.

when nanotechnology risks was perceived first as problems and became the subject of global discussion among NGOS 54 and reinsurance companies 55.

Participatory processes as well as different concepts of responsible research and innovation in nanotechnology were triggered by global debates on the risks of nanotechnology. 4. 2. International screening

but at the same time there is a high risk, namely that only positive visions that go along very well with the personal value systemare taken up and further developed.

To the extent that FTA is situated in specific domains it is again at risk of achieving only a partial view.

and other stakeholders can systematically be involved in exploring future opportunities and risks. Marinho and Cagnin propose the inclusion of elements of FTA PROCESSES in strategic management with the explicit aim of‘‘improving Performance Measurement Systems''.

Symptomatic of this danger, many voices across all of the FTA conferences call for clarification regarding the impact or utility of FTA in terms of policy making and more general outcomes for society.

Without finding ways to cover this range of FTA there is the danger that the FTA conferences become a set of disconnected conversations,

There are most likely few risks affiliated with carrying out significant foresight exercises but implementing the results into real policies might be difficult in a society with more uncertainty avoidance.

such as the Globalisation Strategy's initiatives on political priority setting for strategic research and the allocation of 50%more public funding for research, require a degree of risk taking

'such as the dynamics of change, future challenges, risks and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses of the current system, visions for change,

which users and other stakeholders are involved systematically to detect future opportunities and risks. This could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.

and other relevant stakeholders from the early stages of a holistic innovation process in view of discovering future opportunities (and risks),

it was possible to see that the institution was not able to shape a process to build a shared understanding of stakeholders'views as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes.

As a consequence, the positive results attained during the implementation of the proposed system are at risk

(thus supporting phase 1). It does so by enabling a shared understanding of stakeholders'views as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes (thus supporting phase 2). This builds upon knowledge

STRATEGIC LEARNING PHASE 4 FTA provid es a sha red unde rstandin g of stakehold ers'vie ws as well as of risks, opportun itie s, system capab

(2) establishing a common understanding of innovation,‘openness'and involved risks, and (3) coordinating partner expectations.

Also, the risk and investments involved in taking innovations to the market can be shared. Here, collaborative futures research activities supported by EICT make it possible to identify risks

and opportunities in the very early stages of product development (see below).(2) Obtaining new partners for the PPP.

The project-based approach reduces the risk of failure and keeps investment levels low. However, the partners do not use the full potential of the network.

and emerging (new) risks and opportunities, to provoke reflectiio and further investigation of the uncertainties,

but also on potential breakthroughs, analysis of risks, uncertainties and unexpected events that are considered as potentially disruptive in the future.

and their diversity, are intended to reduce the risk of one strong viewpooin dominating. The goal is to provide a reasonably objective basis for the necessary political process (consideration of options,

Supporting evidence and issue description Another common question concerned the high level of aggregation of the issues in the descriptions in the scan highlights the danger of superficiality.

Alerting function The fact that some of the scan issues published in 2005 (e g. risk of a financial crisis caused by poor lending practices

The risk of the first situation is that the overall size of the market for content may be fragmented smaller,

The risk of the second situatiio is in the negotiation for access with the ensuing redistribution of revenue shares in favour of powerffu platform owners, essentially gatekeepers of audiennce in the new convergent context,

any extrapolatiio is fraught with risks, as their attitudes may evolve when they become adults.

although it would have increased the risk of including unrealistic topics in the survey. To achieve such an objective a method based on identifying weak signals would be required

or reduced levels of risk, even about prospective situations or events that contain inherently unpredictable aspects Impacts in terms of strategy formulation for action Support decision making Improve policy implementation Strengthen strategy formulation:

better informed about risks Using foresight to evaluate and future-proof strategies and priority actions Better evidence-based policies Making the case for increased investments in R&d Note:*

more effort is needed on the development of therapeutic drugs for more effective risk managemment even for those infectious diseases for

but run the risk of a decrease in quality control and lack of adequate analysis of the knowledge generated an illustraatio of the tension between the managed expertise of scientific processes,

and understand the nature of the risks; neutralize and minimize the effects of the risks;

and find ways to react rapidly in order to mitigate problems once they start to unfold. A second issue arises

but also a risk of an overly strong reliance on a few elite actors. The marginal role of industry, particularly privately owned enterprrises as a stakeholder is another weakness in the policy process.

business, societal, policy and political opportunities Increase awareness of possible risks, and hence the basis for more effective contingency planning,

These responses entail certain risks and pitfalls. In order to conduct a systematic analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of different organisational models of FTA,

Institutionalisation also has its drawbacks as organisatiion within a public administration may be at risk of ossifying.

This is crucial if they are to be able to point to future risks and potential disruptions that are not yet at the top of the current policy agendas. 2. 3. 3 FTA networks.

there is a risk of cooptation of incumbent positions rather than exploring novel alternatives for decision-making.

and helped in identifying new programme topics, such as disaster risk and urban health. It also highligghte a number of areas,

e g. teaching critical thinking and better appreciation of risk and uncertainty. A wide variety of electronic and visual medium are used now routinely to ensure the work of scientists is communicated effectively to public audiences.

processes and resourrces New solutions need to be negotiated within a large network of actors and thus risk aversion predominates.

existing clientele Risk taking for new discoveries Risk averse Priority setting by peers Priority setting by diplomacy Long-term perspective Time pressure Simplified yet sustainable funding Juste retoura

In Woodwisdom-Net, some‘slack'in scheduling was built into the process schedule as a risk mitigation measure.

lowering the risk of simply involving the‘usual suspects 'if one relies only on internal databases.

This risk of partiality can be limited by introducing a foresight approach into the process. Considering the national differences in foresight capabilities and capacities, particcula efforts in organising training35 for possible national coordinators could enhance the overall quality

we run a risk of co-optation37 of foresight and consequent constraints to develop radically new alternattive or particularly bold programmes in terms of scale and ambition.

horizon scanning and generation of innovation ideas among a wide and diverse set of stakeholders) can alleviate the risk of co-optation,

T. Ko nno la and K. Haegeman as an integrator of other programming functions can outweigh the risks

capacities available or topic specific features like potential risks and urgency, depth and width of implications, degree of public awareness and concerns.

Even more so, it is crucial to make them aware of the benefits of effectively dealing with potentially important issues early enough as well as the risks of overlooking them.

There is a risk of global water bankruptcy due to humanity's consistent underpricing of water and its consequent waste and overuse.

new risks are emerging..The last trend is the increasing scarcity of natural resources and the vulnerability of the planet with the new geopolitics of energy,

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