Yet, the tools for dealing with uncertainty, for evaluating the adequate return for risk-taking,
The quantitative techniques available to us are not yet capable of quantifying risk in ways other than probability.
Managers often do not know what risks are associated with particular strategies. A lot of work is needed here. 5. Planning in nonlinear,
risk analysis, and foresight approach into one anticipatory methodological concept of strategic policy intelligence. In principle, this concept could be applied in the study of different kinds of societal objects and objectives, related to national innovation system, regions, research programmes or societal actors, engaging private enterprises and public organizations.
which warned of the dangers of a 9-11-scale terrorist attack, examined 20 scenario studies of U s. national security
A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 UK government's strategy on flood and coastal erosion risk management,
diverse audiences for public policy scenarios often require some type of information about relative risks. In addition, the question of a potential correlation between scenario approaches and impacts and effectiveness of use require further evaluative efforts.
lessons from regional projects, Development 47 (4)( 2004) 62 72.24 M. B. A. van Asselt, Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk:
and health risks of nano artifacts along with the ethical and legal issues arising as a result of the widespread use of these products.
and effectiveness of governance Realising societal benefits Credibility and trust for good governance and openness to public scrutiny of risks and expectations Protection of fundamental rights in the absence of the precautionary principle through unavoidable situations.
At present, during its early stages, a wide variety of actors are anticipating both on the potential benefits and risks of the development of nanotechnologies and their embedment into markets and into society.
and risks that may become reality as nanotechnology matures. It is uncertain what sort of sectors will be impacted
uncertain and involve multiple actors working at multiple levels shot through with anticipatory strategies and expectations on risks and benefits of the emerging technology field.
For a detailed account of the developments of the nano risk debate and the key elements of RRI see van Amerom and Rip 35 and Kearnes and Rip 36.
There was a widely recognised uncertainty about the potential impacts and risks, whilst in the meantime proposals for regulation were being formulated
production and use of nanoparticles and the consideration of risks of nanotechnology. 10 Fig. 3 visualizes this (up to 2008.
and new ways of managing them e g. the Risk Framework for Nanotechnology put forward by the unusual alliance of Dupont and Environmental Defence.
similar to health risk labelling with the privacy risk label This product is tracked system placed on food packaging (a response to bloggers'insistence on transparency).
Although no linkages between the projects occurs there the ethical and risk debate begins to separate to real issues (of health,
roles and responsibilities of researchers and the issues around risk of nanoparticles. The scenario in Box 4 will be shown in more detail in Section 5. 4. 2. The effect of these scenarios in the workshop The three scenarios together covered the various positions and expectations of those actors active in the debate around RRI.
which covered locating the responsibility of risk evaluation in the value chain, the ethics of promising (by researchers and firms),
the ethical and risk debate begins to separate to real issues (of health, environmental and safety issues of nano production) and speculation on broader ethical debates around Human Enhancement, Justice,
The question of risk thresholds is discussed often especially around consumer safety and occupational health and safety.
Having been to a number of meetings on risk, I see that many technology promoters take an adverse stance towards precaution,
Public outcry as consumer organisations identify major issues in a number of sectors which could hold potential risk with no protection for the consumer (the house of cards collapses) Window of opportunity for selectors:
the emergence of windows of opportunity for action (stemming from the Finnish worker case being part of the coevollutio of emerging nanotechnology options in paper production and risk and regulation landscape),
and the risk of bowing to the concentric bias of enactors who need scenarios to guide them to identify
towards risk society or ecological modernization of scenarios. Futures research Quarterly 17, no. 2: 33 55.
but the risk associated with this is loss of some sense of ownership. 7. 6. Mistakes were made,
thus reducing the risk of counterproductive interference. In addition, four crosscutting topics were included in the work of all panels:(
in exploring different possible futures and understanding future risks. Ling (2002,127, n9) writes that‘All policy makers are expected to think about the risks associated with a policy
and how these might best be managed'.'Yet the uncertainty of different scenarios is seen also as‘politically weak
The term‘visioning'itself has been characterised as being‘so vague in practise that it sometimes runs the risk of being rendered meaningless'(Shipley et al. 2004,196.
'Foresight is thus a coordinated response to uncertainty and risk. Giddens (1991,29) argues that the‘popularity of futurology in the system of high modernity is not an eccentric preoccupation...
but signals a recognition that the consideraatio of counterfactual possibilities is intrinsic to reflexivity in the context of risk assessment and evaluation'.
Health, Risk and Society 4: 259 72. Brown, N, . and M. Michael. 2003. A sociology of expectations:
Risk and environment as legitimatory discourses of technology: reflexivity inside out? Current Sociology 50, no. 3: 459 477.
the risk of arriving at‘conventional'results might have been greater. Third, some panels (e g. Serviic and service innovations) had rather new and evocative titles.
The documents also mitigated the risk that two chairmen would have exercised an unduly strong influence on the report contents.
it is worth highlighting that the identification of the competence area Assessment and management of global risks
Global economy Assessment and management of global risks Impacts of business globalisation on national economies Management of innovation processes panel reports. 5 The first part of the synthesis report summarised selected driving forces
while avoiding the risks of imposing too onerous a methodology that might be ineffective or even resented by the panels.
This framework helped mitigate the risk that the panel discussions would drift to the structural issues
but growing public concern over their supposed environmental and health risks led several EU countries to demand the moratorium.
Uncertainties and risks have proliferated during the past decade as a result of the increasing complexity of and turbulence in the marketplaces in
the risk of deciding to pursue a particular course of action increases. Analyst Mark Buchanan
writing in strategy+business 1, refers to these new types and levels of risk as interdependent risks.
Interdependent risks constitute a form of risk that requires adjustment on the part of managers and planners accustomed to more direct and predictable cause-and-effect chains of events and their associated risk assessments.
As the complexity of the business environment increases, successful businesses will be those that turn themselves into adaptive systems that work in an organic manner to find,
Junior employees do not want to risk looking bad. Senior managers must understand their role (refraining from normal decision-making, judgmental behavior patterns),
and that, given the wide range of risk/reward profiles among the selected areas, that a portfolio approach should be adopted.
or take additional risks and other factors such as regulation and competition are favourable. Put simply, a lead market provides a launch platform for innovations
and thinking on strategic trends on specific risks highlighting significant defence and security implications. The findings consist in probability based outcomes.
by the Nordic council. d The EU Integrated Project IRRIIS Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems. e Commissioned by the Office of the National science Advisor (ONSA.
the term refers to the condition of being protected against danger or loss that originate from outside such as war, disaster, civil unrest, vandalism, or sabotage.
http://www. h2foresight. info (2009-11-10). 19 The EU Integrated Project IRRIIS Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems, available at:
10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.005 2. FTA and knowledge management Talking about FTA in terms of‘‘knowledge''may seem to risk dealing in oxymorons.
We can point here to such approaches as risk assessment, roadmapping, and some specific tools of operations management and operational research (such as DEMATEL,
or celebrations of transhumanism but also to more‘‘mundane''exploration of future opportunities and risks associated with large-scale projects
and those which involve controversial decisions about risks and impacts of development (for example, nuclear technology,
whom they perceive to be at risk of being coopted by those in power.)The second important factor is the‘‘crisis of science policy''more generally as pressures to restrict burgeoning public expenditure collided with demands from Big science
and risk assessment approaches (see 24), two recent examples where a complementary approach was adopted retroactively come to mind:
and Royal Academy of Engineering launched a major consultation exercise exploring risks as well as opportunities. These bodies set up an independent working group,
‘‘dark scenarios''explicating key risks and vulnerabilities associated with the use of Ami technologies and services.
, Integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies, Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176.25 Advisory Group on Nanotechnology, New dimensions for manufacturing:
The paper concludes with those issues in which the FTA COMMUNITY is starting to devote attention to as well as those it still ought to consider. 2. History Governance is an outcome of the continual battle between risk and regulation.
Risk is ubiquitous to all life but in human societies it has perceptual and physical components infecting matters relating to society, science and technology, economics, ecology, politics and value/norms:
hence the source of risk's ubiquity. Ulrich Beck 2 coined the term‘the risk society'in 1986,
but this was some time after the UK's Royal Society embarked, in 1981, on a series of conferences on the assessment and perception of risk.
Risk and perceptions of it are closely related to fear making the proper understanding of the real physical nature of risk of prime importance to framing regulations where the politics of fear may intrude irrationally.
Regulations are framed to attempt to calm the perceptions of risk and to control or reduce fear
and to make life easier. Rarely is eliminated it as the world is rarely what the public perceives it to be.
and glocalisation and to the need to anticipate the future needs to manage risk and regulation.
and their risks are an important part of the emerging landscape. At this point there is much force to Whitehead's perception that‘Science is concerned with generalities.
which is threatened through risk, regulation and governance. The relationship between advances in technology and human social development was established during the Enlightenment well before the notion of‘economics'was born as a cultural invention, rather than as a pseudo-objective science.
The underlying rationale often risks confusing public relations with social and business results. All four schools of thought share the same weakness 29:
It is difficult for companies to build reasons for CSR with its apparent limited relevance to social and environmental risks and opportunities to a firms'core business.
Factors such as public awareness of industrial and technological risk, growing instances of social resistance to new technologies,
brought about by the so-called risk society, are shaping innovation processes. Hence it is important to be clear that there is a need for emerging technologies to be subject to social scrutiny.
and process contribute to governance modes that are more responsive to risk society perceptions, values and apprehensions.
Are conventional technocratic modes of regulation yielding to governance modes that are more responsive to risk society perceptions, values and apprehensions?
which depends on an organisations willingness to invest in the face of real and anticipated risks
2 B. Ulrich, Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity, Sage, London, 1992.3 F. Soddy, Cartesian Economics:
and risk managers define vulnerabilities within a given system and to then consider what type of event might de-stabilise that system.
and need for management Aging/labor force ratio creating tensions Negative prospects from genetic manipulation‘‘Privacy loss''as 21st century externality Pandemic risks increase Genetically designed children will be possible Dematerialisation the West
religious and team sport identities Changes in health risk perception Ethical investment in development projects to promote sustainability Science & Tech. 46 Maturation of S, T and Humanities relationship
K. Steinmueller, Thinking about The Future-Strategic Anticipation and RAHS by Risk assessment and Horizon scanning (RAHS), National Security Coordination Secretariat, Singapore, 2008.9 M. P. Barber,
manage and minimise risk within a framework that seeks to eliminate uncertainty, as opposed to recognising its inevitability.
and to reduce risks and uncertainties in transport decision-making. In a second paper, Horton argues that policy-making needs to assume that unexpected disruptive events will happen even with the best horizon scanning system in place.
The article also examines the prospective perils that systematically applying FTA to Law may bring about.
risk and uncertainties should be reduced; unintended effects should be avoided. A variety of tools and methods of rather different character are applied,
It juxtaposes a problem typology and a typology of methods Keywords FTA METHODS, Transport planning, Risks, Uncertainties, Unintended effects, Uncertainty management,
notwithstanding that political rhetoric tends to feed the impression that risk and uncertainties can be excluded or a least controlled.
In doing so, there is a need to look at risks and uncertainties that could lead to unintended effects. 2. The problem:
risks and uncertainties Uncertainty and risk are only in very rare cases a consideration in transportation planning and transportation policy decision making.
and risks in decision making is the object of academic study and scientific debate (see for example Renn 2008) for a long time.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 283 Risk, uncertainties and unintended effects are obviously a problem for transport planning.
Knight, in his widely acknowledged conceptualisation of risks, distinguished between‘‘risk, ''which involved effects for which knowledge and parameters are available to assess the likelihood of an outcome,
and‘‘uncertainty'',referring to a more genuine lack of systematic understanding of causal relations (Knight 1921, see also Runde 1998).
and a risk assessment can be made; while noise effects on human creativity may be impossible to parameterise
While risk is a quantifiable parameter where there is both significant scientific knowledge about the probabilities of the occurrence of certain effects and reliable knowledge about the nature and extent of possible harm,
Kleindorfer (2008, p. 7) distinguishes between‘‘epistemic risks, ''which arise from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate model
and‘‘aleatory risks'',that arise from randomness inherent in the phenomena (though this randomness itself can be defined
A category that is, in principle, related to what is called risk in the Knightian sense. Solid knowledge is already available.
athe reader should note that risk has various meanings, depending on the scientific discipline within which it is used.
Building on the work of the German Risk Commission (Risk Commission 2003), in the context of this paper risk is understood, in its economic/toxicological/engineering sciences definition,
and quantification of knowns rather than for the. focus on unknowns (uncertainties) detection of unknowns. main focus on knowns (risks) Examples:
and structurally closed methods in a careful and transparent manner. 5. Conclusions Policy interventions in the transport sector have to consider risks and uncertainties,
and it helps to sharpen sensitivity to risk and uncertainty in planning processes. Further, the categorisation increases awareness for a more careful design and integration of structurally open methods.
Flyvbjerg, B.,Bruzelius, N. and Rothengatter, W. 2003), Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge.
www. tekno. dk/europta Knight, F. H. 1921), Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.
Renn, O. 2008), Risk governance. Coping with Uncertainty in a Complex World, Earthscan, London. Renn, O.,Webler, T. and Wiedemann, P. Eds)( 1995), Fairness and Competence in Citizen Participation:
Evaluating Models for Environmental Discourse, Risk governance and Society, Vol. 10, Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht. Risk Commission (2003), Ad hoc Commission on‘‘Revision of Risk analysis Procedures and Structures as well as of Standard Setting in the field of Environmental Health in the Federal republic of germany'',Final Report, Salzgitter Federal Radiological
Protection Agency, Berlin. Runde, J. 1998),‘Clarifying Frank Knight's discussion of the meaning of risk and uncertainty'',Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 22, pp. 539-46.
S21 (2010), Wortprotokoll der Schlichtung. Protokoll 1 vom 22.10.2010 (Transscript of the mediation. Protocol from 22.10.2010
In this case promoting variation also constitutes a risk management approach, whereby a policy is more able to work as its environment changes
providing opportunities for risk-spreading, and undertaking cost-benefit analysis. 2. Create an enabling environment for variation by facilitating conditions that enable societies to create alternative approaches to achieve a common objective
and deployment of these different visions through appropriate policies to minimize risks 2. Design and use a mix of policy instruments to achieve a single policy objective 2. Review of the efficiency of the policy options as newer conditions unfold
and emerge 3. Identify and characterise the potential risks of the different visions 3. Provide a range of policy options 3. Monitor
and evaluate the policy instruments deployed to promote variation 4. Identify alternative policy options that can minimize the impacts from the any identified risks 4. Remove the barriers that hinder the adoption of these strategies 4. Incorporate feedback from the‘‘grassroots''level
lies a hidden risk in using numerical values to describe possible future events. Calculations often oversimplify possible development paths,
Another risk of this approach is that calculations and assessment of, for example, energy use of some industrial processes,
The Nanosafe project assesses the risks involved in the production handling and use of nanoparticles in industrial processes and products,
The results are expected to indicate risks to workers and consumers, and to recommend regulatory measures and codes of practice.
The big challenge is to satisfy multiple and diverse social demands without putting the sustainability principles at risk.
The article also examines the prospective perils that systematically applying FTA to law may bring about.
and risk, neglecting as a consequence the use of forecasting techniques, foresight methods and technology assessment procedures.
as otherwise the suggested application of fta to Law may run the risk of losing credibility in the eyes of policy and decision makers. 4. 2. 2 Neutrality and objectivity.
In defending the application of fta to Law we may run the risk of rendering the lawmaking process even less transparent and controllable.
In other words, we may run the risk of having a specific vision of the future directly produced
avoiding thus the risk of having the future (either envisaged in the form of scenario,
An eventual systematic application of fta to Law runs the risk of blurring the boundaries between Science and Law,
and technological risks, overcoming problems of legitimacy and technology conflicts. It produces knowledge, orientation and procedures to deal with societal challenges in coping with technology.
as an early warning of technological risks and unintended consequences, later also as a tool for an early diagnosis of the chances and potential of technology.
and the United states. Especially the risks of nanotechnology from the suspected asbestos-like properties of some nanoscopic materials and the resulting dangers for human health to the potential thread by self-replicating nanobots turning the entire world into dgrey
and risks and calls for technology assessment of these technologies, political requirements to orientate R&d budgets on the potential contribution of new developments to sustainable development puts some pressure on the TA practitioner.
and risks of nanotechnology. Very often, in these discussions the existing or expected benefits arising from nanotechnology-based
Finally, roadmapping could support the conceptualisation of Nano-TA as a dreal timet-investigation and assessment of chances and risk,
One he labelled as risk and the other as‘true'uncertainty. Risk, according to Knight, was associated with events where outcomes could be known using probability distributions,
How would the risk of disaster and the need for disaster management have been assessed? How would the possible social
When the promised specifications run the risk of not being met, additional measures are needed, such as entering into strategic alliances.
not only by their own estimates of revenues and risks, but also by what they know or suspect about other investors.
Some argue that foresight studies run the risk to reinforce existing paths and thus contribute to lock in (Jacobsson and Johnson 2000;
The same risks loom for the objectives of networking and vision building: they may reproduce images
so there is a constant danger of overcapacity. The industry has also been exposed increasingly to rising raw material prices,
Management system FTA roles Decide to be in business FTA supports mutual learning and shared understanding of network actors'views and feelings as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes, all of
and risk that accompanies any form of decision-making. Foresight demands thatwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'be in mind constantly.
Both forecasting and technology assessmeen provide a more factual and numerical understanding of a business's financial and technical risks
focus on processes and activities planning-Change factors as processes and activities interdependence-Decision based on risk/reward-Integration starts;
Better context also enables better avoidance of duplicative efforts and better knowledge of research risks.
She has more than 20 years'experience in safety, security, risk assessment, and foresight-related research in VTT.
Her current research interests include, for example, emerging risks and critical infrastructure protection. She holds a position of docent in the University of Oulu.
For solar cells, there are particulaarl toxic materials that could pose dangers during extraction processing, and manufacturing processes.
How do they fit within the risk and regulation landscape? Are the protocols for handling such substances in place?
Is the risk framework adequaate The innovation pathways call attention to a need to address such issues that could affect DSSC development
and 5. risk and damage containment after natural and technogenous disasters. Eighty-two topics were formulated for these five thematic areas, in the form of briefly described S&t results, promising technologies or innovation products (e g.‘‘
contribution to innovative relevant projects, availability of human resources (researchers, engineers and technicians), required level of funding, fixed assets and others Estimation of resources and risks List
''and‘‘Maximization of nuclear reactor safety/economic in operation, optimization of the new nuclear reactor design and efficiency of monitoring/lowering the risk by optimization and actively use of information technology''.
risking that this ambition would compromise rigour, due to lack of skills, miss some major factors that cannot be identified by these techniques,
6 The Risk assessment and Horizon scanning Initiative (Singapore) developed a Service Oriented Based Horizon scanning Architecture (SOSA) allowing sharing perspectives on data sets
In other words, when dealing with issues surrounded by risk, uncertainty, and ignorance typically issues being dealt with by FTA the value of models is (at least) as much in the process as in the output. 8 Another common misconception associates subjectivity and value judgement to qualitative processes,
is therefore of the essence. 9 8 During the 2011 FTA Conference a lively discussion was devoted to the shift of FTA usage from exploring potential risks to inspiring sustainable innovation.
risks and traps that require consideration. It could be adapted to serve as an FTA starter kit for combining methods.
thus also decreasing the risk of stakeholders dominating the FTA PROCESS. 14 The importance of this in the context of this paper lies in keeping a balance in participation of stakeholders
Change 77 (2010) 34 49.44 R. Lempert, M. Collins, Managing the risk of uncertain threshold response:
and precautionary approaches, Risk Anal. 24 (2007) 1009 1026.45 E. Störmer, B. Truffer, D. Dominguez, W. Gujer, A. Herlyn, H. Hiessl, H
Third party risk Methodology developed by the National Air Traffic Services (NATS) for third-party risk 42,43 the NATS methodology has been extended to apply to multiple runways 49,50.
A Methodology for Calculation Individual Risk due to Aircraft Accidents Near Airports, National Air Traffic Services Ltd, London, UK, 2000.44 C. Hamarat, J
with a risk of diluting a sense of urgency. In addition, our analysis indicates that scenarios with a strong focus on consensus during the development are often too vague and too broad for defining tangible innovation opportunities.
This links well with the concept of risk-society 69 and risk management. Our analysis suggests that this can be contributed partly to the selected process design for developing the scenarios.
and consensus increases a risk of diluting a sense of urgency. During the scenario exercise, consensus may not be appropriate to promote differences
innovation Risk of not reaching out to key (technological) actors 440 P. De Smedt et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 acknowledge the limits of our analysis:
foresight in the risk society, Technovation 19 (1999) 413 421.12 H. Linstone, On discounting the future, Technol.
How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change, Pearson, Prentice hall, New york, 2006.69 U. Beck, Ecological Politics in an Age of Risk, Polity Press, Cambridge, 1995.70 L. M. Ricard, K
and identifying and reacting to potential risks. At the turn of the century, nanotechnology was discussed mainly with regard to content (future applications), not with regard to the future decision-making processes and the participation of stakeholders,
After the establishment of public funding programs in some countries and increasing risk debates, anticipatory activities included a wide range of stakeholders from politics, academia, industry and NGOS,
The Coming Era of Nanotechnology 17, Drexler developed far reaching new ideas of the possibilities and risks of technologies on the nanoscale.
Since 2004, risk has become the subject of political concern as well as the subject of analysis. Public opinion about nanotechnology
and public perceptions about its risks and future benefits has been analyzed extensively 40,41 and the need for risk governance has been expressed 42.
NNI agencies incorporated components of research on Ethical Legal and Social Implications (ELSI) into nanotechnology R&d programs and supported centers for nanotechnology in society.
and the supporting infrastructure and tools to advance nanotechnology) as well as risk governance (Support responsible development of nanotechnology) 45.
safety and societal impacts of nanotechnology as environmentally responsible development of nanotechnology 46 and to develop risk governance for nanotechnology 42.
identified more than 25 examples of German dialogue processes concerned with the potential benefits and risks of nanotechnologies.
and risks of nanotechnologies and to discuss the responsible use of nanomaterials. In 2007, the Nano-Initiative Action Plan 2010 emerged as an important part of the high-tech strategy of the German government.
A broader concept of responsible development of nanotechnology in general was developed not (only the identification of risks for safe and responsible handling) 52.
when nanotechnology risks was perceived first as problems and became the subject of global discussion among NGOS 54 and reinsurance companies 55.
Participatory processes as well as different concepts of responsible research and innovation in nanotechnology were triggered by global debates on the risks of nanotechnology. 4. 2. International screening
if stakeholders hold opposing positions and claims, for example with regard to risk governance. In Germany, early FTA ACTIVITIES also provided justification for a policy under consideration (symbolic function)
Sci. 17 (2008) 329 348.25 R. Zimmer, R. Hertel, G.-F. Böl, Bfr Consumer Conference Nanotechnology, Federal Institute for Risk assessment, Berlin
Res. 6 (2004) 395 405.42 O. Renn, M. C. Roco, Nanotechnology and the need for risk governance, J. Nanopart.
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