but at the same time there is a high risk, namely that only positive visions that go along very well with the personal value systemare taken up and further developed.
To the extent that FTA is situated in specific domains it is again at risk of achieving only a partial view.
and other stakeholders can systematically be involved in exploring future opportunities and risks. Marinho and Cagnin propose the inclusion of elements of FTA PROCESSES in strategic management with the explicit aim of‘‘improving Performance Measurement Systems''.
Symptomatic of this danger, many voices across all of the FTA conferences call for clarification regarding the impact or utility of FTA in terms of policy making and more general outcomes for society.
Without finding ways to cover this range of FTA there is the danger that the FTA conferences become a set of disconnected conversations,
There are most likely few risks affiliated with carrying out significant foresight exercises but implementing the results into real policies might be difficult in a society with more uncertainty avoidance.
such as the Globalisation Strategy's initiatives on political priority setting for strategic research and the allocation of 50%more public funding for research, require a degree of risk taking
'such as the dynamics of change, future challenges, risks and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses of the current system, visions for change,
Horizon scanning Centre, the Risk assessment and Horizon scanning (RAHS) programme in Singapore, among others. Many of the specific projects undertaken by these different organisations are documented well.
Also, from the viewpoint of risk management, the presence of interdependencies makes it advisable to provide some flexibility 31,32 in scheduling,
study, International Journal of Project Management 20 (2002) 1 11.31 E. Osipova, P. E. Eriksson, Balancing control and flexibility in joint risk management:
which users and other stakeholders are involved systematically to detect future opportunities and risks. This could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
and other relevant stakeholders from the early stages of a holistic innovation process in view of discovering future opportunities (and risks),
it was possible to see that the institution was not able to shape a process to build a shared understanding of stakeholders'views as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes.
As a consequence, the positive results attained during the implementation of the proposed system are at risk
(thus supporting phase 1). It does so by enabling a shared understanding of stakeholders'views as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes (thus supporting phase 2). This builds upon knowledge
STRATEGIC LEARNING PHASE 4 FTA provid es a sha red unde rstandin g of stakehold ers'vie ws as well as of risks, opportun itie s, system capab
(2) establishing a common understanding of innovation,‘openness'and involved risks, and (3) coordinating partner expectations.
Also, the risk and investments involved in taking innovations to the market can be shared. Here, collaborative futures research activities supported by EICT make it possible to identify risks
and opportunities in the very early stages of product development (see below).(2) Obtaining new partners for the PPP.
The project-based approach reduces the risk of failure and keeps investment levels low. However, the partners do not use the full potential of the network.
impact checklists, state of the future index, multiple perspectives assessment Matrices Analogies, morphological analysis, cross-impact analyses Statistical analyses Risk analysis, correlations Trend analyses Growth
and emerging (new) risks and opportunities, to provoke reflectiio and further investigation of the uncertainties,
but also on potential breakthroughs, analysis of risks, uncertainties and unexpected events that are considered as potentially disruptive in the future.
and their diversity, are intended to reduce the risk of one strong viewpooin dominating. The goal is to provide a reasonably objective basis for the necessary political process (consideration of options,
Supporting evidence and issue description Another common question concerned the high level of aggregation of the issues in the descriptions in the scan highlights the danger of superficiality.
Alerting function The fact that some of the scan issues published in 2005 (e g. risk of a financial crisis caused by poor lending practices
The risk of the first situation is that the overall size of the market for content may be fragmented smaller,
The risk of the second situatiio is in the negotiation for access with the ensuing redistribution of revenue shares in favour of powerffu platform owners, essentially gatekeepers of audiennce in the new convergent context,
any extrapolatiio is fraught with risks, as their attitudes may evolve when they become adults.
although it would have increased the risk of including unrealistic topics in the survey. To achieve such an objective a method based on identifying weak signals would be required
or reduced levels of risk, even about prospective situations or events that contain inherently unpredictable aspects Impacts in terms of strategy formulation for action Support decision making Improve policy implementation Strengthen strategy formulation:
better informed about risks Using foresight to evaluate and future-proof strategies and priority actions Better evidence-based policies Making the case for increased investments in R&d Note:*
more effort is needed on the development of therapeutic drugs for more effective risk managemment even for those infectious diseases for
but run the risk of a decrease in quality control and lack of adequate analysis of the knowledge generated an illustraatio of the tension between the managed expertise of scientific processes,
and understand the nature of the risks; neutralize and minimize the effects of the risks;
and find ways to react rapidly in order to mitigate problems once they start to unfold. A second issue arises
but also a risk of an overly strong reliance on a few elite actors. The marginal role of industry, particularly privately owned enterprrises as a stakeholder is another weakness in the policy process.
business, societal, policy and political opportunities Increase awareness of possible risks, and hence the basis for more effective contingency planning,
the global reach of climate change and associated health and environmental risks. These call for new types of institutiion that effectively design,
These responses entail certain risks and pitfalls. In order to conduct a systematic analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of different organisational models of FTA,
Institutionalisation also has its drawbacks as organisatiion within a public administration may be at risk of ossifying.
This is crucial if they are to be able to point to future risks and potential disruptions that are not yet at the top of the current policy agendas. 2. 3. 3 FTA networks.
there is a risk of cooptation of incumbent positions rather than exploring novel alternatives for decision-making.
and helped in identifying new programme topics, such as disaster risk and urban health. It also highligghte a number of areas,
e g. teaching critical thinking and better appreciation of risk and uncertainty. A wide variety of electronic and visual medium are used now routinely to ensure the work of scientists is communicated effectively to public audiences.
processes and resourrces New solutions need to be negotiated within a large network of actors and thus risk aversion predominates.
existing clientele Risk taking for new discoveries Risk averse Priority setting by peers Priority setting by diplomacy Long-term perspective Time pressure Simplified yet sustainable funding Juste retoura
In Woodwisdom-Net, some‘slack'in scheduling was built into the process schedule as a risk mitigation measure.
lowering the risk of simply involving the‘usual suspects 'if one relies only on internal databases.
This risk of partiality can be limited by introducing a foresight approach into the process. Considering the national differences in foresight capabilities and capacities, particcula efforts in organising training35 for possible national coordinators could enhance the overall quality
we run a risk of co-optation37 of foresight and consequent constraints to develop radically new alternattive or particularly bold programmes in terms of scale and ambition.
horizon scanning and generation of innovation ideas among a wide and diverse set of stakeholders) can alleviate the risk of co-optation,
T. Ko nno la and K. Haegeman as an integrator of other programming functions can outweigh the risks
A special national horizon scanning activity is taking place in Singapore under the Risk assessment and Horizon scanning programme
and researchers (Mendonc¸a et al. 2009) Emerging issues Beyond horizon scanning the concept of emerging issues is used also in the area of risk assessment (Marvin et al. 2009), in the field of environmental issues (Sutherland et al. 2010) and in organisations in their environmental scanning (Morrison 1992).
capacities available or topic specific features like potential risks and urgency, depth and width of implications, degree of public awareness and concerns.
Even more so, it is crucial to make them aware of the benefits of effectively dealing with potentially important issues early enough as well as the risks of overlooking them.
Implications for European and international risk management practices',Food Control, 20: 345 56. Mendonc¸A s.,Pina e Cunha, M.,Ruff, F. and Kaivo-oja, J. 2009)‘ Venturing into the wilderness:
There is a risk of global water bankruptcy due to humanity's consistent underpricing of water and its consequent waste and overuse.
new risks are emerging..The last trend is the increasing scarcity of natural resources and the vulnerability of the planet with the new geopolitics of energy,
Steinmu ller, K. 2011)‘ Wild Cards Preparing for the unpredicttable Wild cards in the framework of risk assessment and horizon scanning,
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