It discusses the questions and validity of the analogy between technological evolution and biological evolution
The paper shows that concepts applied to biological evolution are applicable, through useful metaphors, to economics and technology assessment.
Secondly, the analytical boundaries of the innovation system that determines the evolution of the focal issue need to be clarified.
The Approach of Strategic Niche Management, Spon Press, London, 2002.26 R. Kemp, J. Rotmans, The management of the co-evolution of technical
This broadens the previous notions of path from lock in to the co-evolution of interactions of networks of actors with attempts at mindful deviation. 11 Characteristics of path dependency
Emerging irreversibilities are punctuations in the evolution of a technological field, which both guide and drive it.
and stabilisation in the evolution of affordance structures that guide activities in new and Emerging s&t.
relegating developments of Loc to remaining in phase 2. The final large bubble represents the evolution of an integrated platform to a product application.
which we have diagnosed in Section 3 a gap in innovation of full experimental integration and evolution into and integrated platform.
this map (and any future evolution) is and will be integrated in the Frontiers Roadmapping Initiative. The initiative is a programme focusing on aiding research foci in the link to applications.
Along with the MPM-1 it was important to insert details of affordance structures and their co-evolution with emerging irreversibilities
Further developments of MPM-2 will be included in the following evolutions of the roadmap, however monitoring the affect
Change 14 (2005) 1 13.16 R. Phaal, C. J. P. Farrukh, D. R. Probert, Technology roadmapping A planning framework for evolution and revolution, Technol.
outline of the theory of structuration, Polity Press, Cambridge, 1984.41 D. K. R. Robinson, M. Ruivenkamp, A. Rip, Tracking the evolution of new and Emerging s&t via statement-linkages:
The evolution of strategies to cope with or escape from the negative consequences of a‘risk society'.
In parallel, given that developments in the above spheres are associated strongly with the evolution of‘participatory knowledge societies',this paper presents an interpretation of foresight process impacts within a conceptual framework that attempts to characterise such societies.
The evolution of a common evaluation and assessment framework for foresight exercises however, could facilitate the identification of good practices irrespective of their specific objectives
such as the evolution of knowledge societies and participatory governance systems, and the lower level sets of goals that have to be attained
The alignment of actors'interests, their active participation in dealing with uncertainty, the development of informed publics and, through all of these, to the evolution of strategies to cope with
The alignment of actors'interests, their active participation in dealing with uncertainty, the development of informed publics and, through all of these, to the evolution of strategies to cope with
if foresight exercises are to result in impacts in line with the evolution of participatory‘knowledge societies'.'It also helps in the identification of external factors affecting the success of the foresight system as a whole.
reconfiguring policy structures and as a dynamic process, symbolizing policy evolution-change. In many respects the BMBF foresight demonstrates how in practice many of the new approaches are actively engaging a changing view of policy for the knowledge economy.
a research project exploring potential co-evolutions of nanotechnology and governance arrangements. This involved the inclusion of pre-engagement analysis of potential co-evolutions in the form of scenarios into interactive workshop activities, with the aim of enabling multi-stakeholder anticipation of the complexities of co-evolution.
In addition to the key papers, the technical note of Greg Tegart on Energy and nanotechnologies: Priority areas for Australia's future features an excellent case example of the importance and learning being experienced from the application of novel FTA METHODOLOGIES to explore the possibilities offered by the use of nanotechnologies to contribute to new and improved approaches to energy conversion,
Trend extrapolation approaches, for instance, are based on tracking the emergence of new technologies only once a dominant design is secured 4. This solution of tracking dominant designs neglects some of the fundamental uncertainty associated with technological evolution.
and evolution are needed therefore. Previous work has provided technology analysts with a set of techniques for both integrating and decomposing new technologies.
through use of a model which anticipates architectural evolution. Furthermore, the structured representation of the data may help identify areas where competences may need to be strengthened further or even completely restored.
, 1979.16 K. M. Clark, The interaction of design hierarchies and market concepts in technological evolution, Res.
the later applications more explicitly address the co-evolution of technology and society 19. In line with this shift of attention, foresight was conceived mainly as an informing policy task until the 1970s,
Technol. 35 (9)( 1997) 3 10.17 D. Dominguez, W. Gujer, Evolution of a wastewater treatment plant challenges traditional design concepts, Water Res. 40 (7
Resilience engineering originates from the resilience thinking of ecosysste dynamics 38 implying that ecosystems must cope with continuous changes and constant evolution.
there is no assurance that the evolution of such methods 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 American Council for the United nations University.
The theoretical framework of the barometer is based on the evolution of economies from industrial development phase to sustainable knowledge society.
2. Technology barometer is based on the studies of the dynamic evolution of various development stages of a modern society after the industrialized development stage,
and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures 37 (8)( 2005) 795 812.10 R. J. Lempert, S w. Popper, S. C
The cascade's fuzzy boundaries will be subject to intense philosophical debate that has much to learn from Dempster's sympoiesis. 4. 1. Evolution of a metaphor Inclusive foresight is
of any kind that depends on the systemic interaction between nanoscience, nano-technology and the artifacts themselves for their evolution into desirable artifacts:
Nano artifacts depend on the convergence of sets of sciences and technologies, elsewhere called genus sciences and technologies 23, of very different kinds for their evolution into feasible and (hopefully) desirable artifacts.
even though biotechnological artifacts too require the convergence of sets of sciences and technologies for their evolution.
or severely restrict the future evolution of nano artifacts many of which are already on sale and widely accepted as desirable artifacts including high factor sun screens, tennis racquets reinforced with carbon nanotubes,
and patenting are major themes for Foresight relating to the dynamic evolution of nano artifacts and the situations that arise as a result.
and around the notion of Responsible Research and Innovation of nanotechnologies as an opportunity to develop support tools for exploring potential co-evolutions of nanotechnology and governance arrangements.
This involved the inclusion of pre-engagement analysis of potential co-evolutions in the form of scenarios into interactive workshop activities, with the aim of enabling multi-stakeholder anticipation of the complexities of co-evolution. 2009
which focus on revealing underlying dynamics of co-evolution rather than articulating and placing emphasis on desirable end points.
and pace of the co-evolution. 1 The phrase‘responsible innovation'refers to innovation activities in which social aspects,
Nanotechnology, even at this nascent stage, is stimulating a lot of speculation on shifts in these landscapes leading to a desire to explore the potential mutual co-evolution of nanotechnologies
albeit small, element in the co-evolution of innovation and the surrounding selection landscape. This is a key aspect of modern FTA-connecting complexities of ongoing innovations (and the conditions
The next step is to introduce evolution overtime, so as to address the other main gap in the literature:
1228 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 Fig. 3. Evolution of governance, 2000 2008.1229 D. K
and constrain) the future are particularly visible in the coupled evolution of research, production and use of nanoparticles and the consideration of risks of nanotechnology. 10 Fig. 3 visualizes this (up to 2008.
The co-evolution of regulatory approaches and technology options was discussed also throughout the workshop, although not directly quoted in the discussions,
the co-evolutions described in all three scenarios where picked up and discussed. What was important in such a multi-stakeholder setting,
but important, contribution to this family by combining concentric and multilevel approaches through emphasizing co-evolution.
(and quite rightly constrained) the co-evolution of my own intellectual entanglements and the crafting of this text.
The paper covers the evolution of the foresight exercise over its two-year life span, highlighting the different meanings given to the exercise by different stakeholder groups as the process unfolded and interim results were made known.
A similar evolution has happened in the field of strategy (Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, and Lampel 1998. Some authors have suggested that foresight has emerged from the convergence of the three disciplines and practices of policy development, strategic planning and futures studies (Gavigan et al. 2001),
By doing so, it covers the evolution of the foresight exercise over its two-year life span,
although the level of gross expenditure on r&d (GERD) in Luxembourg at 1. 25%of GDP in 2006 still remains one of the lowest in the Europeea Union (EU). Afuller reviewof the evolution of the Luxembourg research system is offered by Meyer
as mature S&t systems are marked by extensive‘lock in'that are suited better to evolution than revolution. In fact, what tends to happen is that priorities take account of this‘lock in
'so that evolution is nearly always the outcome, even if revolution might Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science
foresight is more about evolution than revolution and shifts towards new areas understandably take time. Besides the identified priorities, the exercise in itself has produced associated process benefits for example,
Reflections on the co-evolution of innovation theory, policy and practice: The emergence of the Swedish Agency for Innovation systems.
FTA APPROACHES are locked also in a spiral of co-evolution with research and innovation policy, finding new applications in aligning actors around societal challenges (as described by Ko nno la et al.)
sociocultural evolution, corporate industrial activity and government. Continuing the call for the FTA COMMUNITY to move on from identifying priorities,
The co-evolution trajectories are determined partly by characteristics of National innovation systems such as regulation and cultural context 10.
''At the same time this evolution is influenced by national institutional settings and policies, and also by European traditions in R&i collaboration and related policies and infrastructures.
In consequence, one can observe the evolution of different configurations entailing different forms and directions of organisation, inter-organisational research collaboration, use of research policy instruments,
These figures of change synthesise the evolution and reconfiguration of professional communities, pools of scientific publications.
This feature is clear when the evolution of volume of scientific output(+200%over 10 years,
rethinking the role of policy, Enterprise and Innovation Management Studies 1 (1)( 2000) 73 102.17 O. Marsili, The Anatomy and Evolution of Industries:
Human evolution has designed us to excel at recognizing patterns, interconnections, and synergies among massive amounts of data and inputs.
It seeks to show an evolution away from a traditional focus on broad-based technological priority setting to a muchmore focussed and adapted set of applications.
Fig. 2 shows the evolution of the Framework programme priorities in terms of relative budget allocations to principal areas.
FP1 Socioeconomic Improving human potential Innovation/dissemination International cooperation Energy Environment Competitive and sustainable growth Information society Quality of life Fig. 2. Evolution of framework programme priorities
Cariola and Rolfo link this to an evolution from hierarchical organisational structures with tangible assets to network knowledge-based organisational forms as a backdrop to the formulation of innovation policy 36.
experiences from the preparation of an international research program, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 483 495.36 M. Cariola, S. Rolfo, Evolution in the rationales of foresight in Europe
analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.8 M. Cariola, R. Secondo, Evolution in the rationales of foresight
One interesting phenomenon is the evolution of websites for National foresight programmes, as decisions are made about how to represent current activities
i) sociocultural evolution,(ii) corporate industrial activity and (iii) government interests. While there has been a great deal of emphasis on the development
sociocultural evolution, corporate industrial activity and government. Analysis of the relationship between governance and each of the three pillars poses a number of questions to the FTA COMMUNITY that reflect on the potential impacts of FTA ACTIVITIES in governance.
sociocultural evolution and government interests that are important in the quest for new forms of governance relating to them.
a series of diagrams are used later to illustrate some of the issues that will need to be incorporated into any future mantra of governance and the evolution of S&t.
These concerns have been assuaged partially by the evolution of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), both
How FTA ACTIVITY can support such moves must be set against the three pillars of corporate industrial activity, sociocultural evolution and government interests,
''is the main question this paper raises by describing the new governance landscape which can be represented by a Venn diagram with a triangle at the centre of the three intersecting systems (Fig. 1). 4. Social-cultural evolution The growing need for a better
socio-cultural evolution and government's interests, creating the need for newforms of governance. There is no doubt that innovations in international relations
and informal war or‘terrorism'as these can have significant influences on the evolution of globalisation and glocalisation.
The greater acknowledgement of the co-evolution of technology and society, as well as the claim that FTA practices should be submitted to interpretation of their significance by the relevant disciplines of the social sciences
The stages in the evolution of the metaphor are shown in the first two diagrams: the entire metaphor is illustrated in the final diagram (Figs.
Such sudden and unique incidents might constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain business social trend or system.
as long as they are evaluated in the context of both their emergence and their evolution as a part of a pattern along with other weak signals.
bio-neural evolution, rising new economic leaders and directions, reduced personal privacy; These are described both in terms of challenges and potential opportunities for civilization.
Perhaps the most provocative ones are the trends describing broad new domains of human evolution (e g. genetic manipulation
evolution''synthetic DNA, new drugs, prosthetic organs, etc. Increased surveillance smart security, disruptive surveillance technology big business Energy 42 Peak oil Growth of renewable energy:
and should be pursued, there is a case that at this stage of the evolution of FTA,
This would suggest the need for continuing evolution of the format of the conference so as to engage policy-makers directly with issues in
Evolution-type strategies are used often in a fitness landscape, which means that a balance of optimisation
so that policy is designed to stimulate evolution rather than to force control. Such policy making requires iterative monitoring of the emerging changes,
The activities of embracing emergence, stimulating evolution, and harnessing the system, can all enable policy makers to see the system from a different perspective
References Axelrod, R. 1985), The Evolution of Cooperation, reprinted ed.,Basic books, New york, NY. Axelrod, R. and Cohen, M. 2001), Harnessing Complexity:
Design/methodology/approach These assumptions are tested in a scenario design exercise that explores the future evolution of the sustainable development paradigm and its implications in the Spanish urban development model.
and 3. design future scenarios for the evolution of sustainable development. This exercise relied on a systematic, ongoing participation process with experts in SD issues.
and social needs on the other''(Cagnin and Keenan, 2008), acknowledging thus the co-evolution of science and technology (S&t) together with society in their approach and work.
Grand societal challenges beyond civilization metamorphosis as intentional evolution, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville.
creattiv evolution Introduction Predictions about future almost always fail. In this paper, the epistemic and ontological causes for this failure are described and their implications for foresight, innovation policy,
ranging from innovation and technology studies to a Bergsonian analysis of creative evolution, theory of autopoietti and anticipatory systems,
It then introduces Bergson's model of creative evolution, showing that it leads to ontological expansion,
In contrast to Darwinian models of evolution where selection weeds out unsustainable developments, in the Bergsonian model, living processes*Email:
and evolution is an essentially open-ended and non-optimising process. We use a simple illustration of a mountaineer to illustrate such an open-ended process of path-finding
In practice, such‘ugly ducklings'of evolution can be defined as ugly ducklings only retrospectively, when we already know that they are not (Tuomi 2002;
Innovation and social learning in the context of the local downstream systems of meaning then become key drivers for the evolution of technology.
Ontological expansion and creative evolution Downstream innovation in the history of telephony If asked about the history of the telephone
If the beast changes its nature in the course of evolution and becomes essentially a new thing,
In Creative Evolution, he argued that both mechanistic and teleological approaches fail to explain novelty.
Both mechanistic and finalistic explanations of evolution and emergence, therefore, have to be wrong. According to Bergson (1983),‘they say the same thing in their respective languages,
evolution is a process that creates continuously newforms. Akey starting point for Bergson was the belief that evolution is truly creative,
and novelty is not only recombinatiio of already existing forms or unfolding of a predetermined future.
In contrast to the Darwinian model of evolution, where living beings are essentially stochastic samples and passive subjects for environmentally driven selection,
In the Bergsonian model of evolution, the process of life creates newforms and newpossibilities for action.
The continuous process of creative evolution thus creates as its mirror image an ontological reality that expands.
Ontological expansion in the mobile space This process of ontological expansion can be illustrated by comparing the evolution of the biological eye and the mobile telephone.
Yet, the evolution has produced a large variety of similar structures for eyes again and again, directing development towards practically useful directions (Mead 1907.
Innovation as creative evolution According to Schumpeter, innovation can be defined as a historic and irreversible change in the way of doing things.
One possibility is to take the Bergsonian model of evolution seriously and define technical change as a specifically human form of élan vital.
and co-evolution of living beings and their environments. Yet, the movement towards future occurs in a context that can often be taken to be static in relation to the time scale of present action.
In creative evolution, at each horizon of action, we rely on a temporary blueprint of the world.
a reversed version of the natural drift model of evolution proposed by Maturana and Varela.
In their original depiction of natural drift, Maturana and Varela (1988, chap. 5) described the process of evolution using a metaphor of water drops rolling down from the top of a mountain.
however, are inadequate for explaining the process of evolution, as evolutionary change is strongly underdetermined by selection (Varela, Thompson, and Rosch 1991,195).
in turn, arises because creative evolution operates on the left-hand side of the figure, introducing novelty that irreversibly changes natural systems
In the creative evolution of the eye, before theworld of vision emerges and ontological expansion occurs,
if we want to understand innovation, creativity, and evolution. Ogilvy (2011) has argued recently that scenario developers
Creative evolution and ontological expansion, however, mean that the dimensions of such‘control space'also emerge in an evolutionary process.
Creative evolution (first edition 1907. Lanham, MD: University Press of America. Bergson, H. 1988. Matter and memory (first edition 1896.
A socio-cognitive model of technology evolution. Organization science 4, no. 3: 527 50. Geels, F. W. 2005.
The organism as the subject and object of evolution. Scientia 118: 63 82. Lorenz, E. N. 1963.
Review of L'evolution créatrice by Henri Bergson. Psychological Bulletin 4: 379 84. Mendonça, S m. Pina e Cunha, J. Kaivo-oja,
Socio-cognitive evolution in niche development: Comparative analysis of biogas development in Denmark and The netherlands (1973 2004.
Invention and the evolution of ideas. London: Social science Paperbacks. Schön, D. A. 1983. The reflective practitioner.
In Essays on entrepreneurs, innovations, business cycles and the evolution of capitalism, ed. R. V. Clemence, 134 49.
None of these feature overtly in the evolution of FTA where every application makes assumptions about the underlying validity of the processes used.
and to get past their dichotomy by placing knowledge in a broader context of its contribution to social evolution Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 760 D. Loveridge
At a different scale, the evolution of personalised medicine will need high throughput diagnostics of great power:
Hambrick 1982) and to investigate their likely evolution and impact on the organisation (foresight techniques:
We start examining the historical evolution and the main drivers of change in each industry of our sample firms since the early 1990s.
and implementation of appropriate techniques for anticipating the likely evolution of drivers of change (state uncertainty), their consequences on the organisation (effect uncertainty),
On the one hand, we examined the historical evolution of each industry of these firms since they started their foresight efforts and in particular throughout the 2000s.
Analysis began with detailed written accounts and schematic representtation of the historical evolution of the industry of each firm.
and the slow overall pace of evolution have contributed to high complexity. The structure of the chemical industry resulted from an as yet uncompleted consolidation process and also from the rise of new competitors in Asia, Middle east,
In such a context, BASF's strategic foresight approach to investigating the evolution impact, and response options to macro drivers of change (i e. for coping with state, effect,
Macro forces and their likely evolution are described in BASF‘Global economy Scenarios',where econometric models elaborate basic data in both qualitative and quantitative terms,
which focuses on the evolution, impact, and response options to drivers of change (Ruff 2006). Such system aims at encompassing
These scenarios aim to figure out the likely evolution of main business segments of the firm,
to provide a comprehensive vision of the future evolution of the firm business environment, in a procees that guarantees that all view points (people,
which summarises the evolution of changes in society, lifestyle, and customer needs in terms of both markets and technologies.
The key drivers of change for example, rise of new rivals from emerging countries and financial crisis had relevant consequeence on the evolution of the main components of the business (micro) environment and thus on the organisation.
and response uncertainty evolution of the key components of the industry, effect on the organisation,
and customer needs requires not only the anticipation of their likely evolution, but, most of all, an answer to the following questions:
First, these techniques allowed managers to think about the alternative evolutions of drivers of change (state uncertainty) in an organic and systematic way.
they were able to directly address uncertainty regarding the evolution of the main components of the business and the impact on the organisation (effect uncertainty) and the best options for coping with these drivers (response uncertainty).
and our competitive position as these could be affected by alternative paths of evolution of drivers of change.
in order to deepen the investigation of state uncertainty (e g. evolution of demand for new Internet-based services on TV),
or roadmaps in order to figure out the evolution, effect, and response options to environmental changes, that is, to eventually address state, effect,
In this paper, a new concept of networked sustainability (Cagnin 2005) is introduced as an evolution of the value Net value is redefined to be a triple-bottom-line balance of the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within a business's network:
and enable its own evolution following the organisation's and its networks'progress towards the common vision of sustainable development.
The Maturity Model suggested in Table 3 (Cagnin 2005) uses the notion of evolution in
as well as of evolution and nature. Maturana andvarela (1980) agree when affirming that every organism has the power to self-generate by means of autopoiesis,
The information and knowledge which are shared throughout the business networks can lead to the networks'adaptation and evolution,
Technology roadmapping a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological forecasting & Social Change 71:5 26.
evolution and policy considerations'',Draft Summary Report, OECD Foresight Forum, Budapest. Russian Energy Strategy: 2030 (2009), Russian Energy Strategy:
Serv. 11 (2009) 59 63.20 H. L. Yu, Analysis of the particleboard technology based on TRIZ and S-Curve technique evolution law, Forest.
as for instance, evolution, mutation, selection, life cycle, survival of the fittest, etc. One of the most powerful technological forecasting tools, the logistic equation, has its origin in the biological realm
and we are witnessing today an intense debate on duniversal Darwinismt as a broad theoretical framework for the analysis of the evolution of all open,
This debate has been in great part centered on the striking similarities between biological evolution and technological/cultural evolution.
Technology evolution; Technological change; Complex systems; Universal Darwinism 1. Introductory thoughts The main objective of this seminar concerns the exploitation of the powerful new capabilities provided by the Information technology Era to advance Future-oriented technology analysis (TFA), both product and process.
Among the needs for TFA envisioned by the TFA Methods Working group we find the questioning about the validity of the analogy between technological evolution and biological evolution (Ref. 1, pp. 299:
The sense one gets from the published literature on this theme is that the to date effort has been in great part centered on the striking similarities between biological evolution
and technological evolution and mostly based on verbal theorizing. It seems that a synthesis of biology
It is said usually that some biological evolution-related concepts like mutation, selection, adaptation, life cycle, survival of the fittest, etc.
and/or disanalogies found between biological and techno-cultural evolution, or in other words, between the evolution of organisms and artifacts.
It urges to accept the general principle of devolutionary Epistemology, T which interprets the whole history of human social, intellectual and material development as the continuation of biological evolution by other means.
It is still missing to recognize that there are some other fundamental laws (or driving forces) underlying evolution as a whole and that must be added to the already acknowledged general rules of blind variation plus selective retention.
Finally it should be added that, in comparison with the relatively vast literature found in verbal theories of techno-cultural evolution,
the amount of practical work using simulation methods is still a dwarf T. C. Devezas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1140 one.
I think that some of the above mentioned points are hindering the development of working computational algorithms to simulate technological evolution.
and we are witnessing today an intense debate on duniversal Darwinismt as a broad theoretical framework for the analysis of the evolution of all open,
All this is to say that the use of biological approaches in analyzing the evolution of technology
which will inevitably lead to the recognition that cultural evolution is the continuation of biological evolution by other means.
or cultural evolution (we will turn to this aspect when discussing points 4 and 5), but is not sufficient to explain the ubiquity of the logistic curve in the living world.
epitomizes one of the greatest mysteries of evolution still challenging scientists the emergence of novelty.
Here we are dealing also with one of the most controversial points in all previous attempts of comparisons between biological and technological evolution,
the true winner in this modern competition is evolution with more than 17,000, 000 hits, what evidences how evolutionary thinking permeates modern human thought!
#Evolution of organisms is the conjunction of two facts: the selective amplification of genotypes based on the differential reproductive success conveyed by their phenotypes through chance events at the level of genotypes.
1 What should be the suitable unity of analysis in technological evolution? Or in other words, what then actually evolves?
and we can say that a lot of work remains to be done to make evolution a viable strategy and school of thought in the study of technology.
but a bridge leading to a level higher up than the plain mapping of every element of technological evolution onto a precise correspondence in the biological counterpart.
or in other words, we have helped nature in its evolution. In the points below I try to resume some important aspects that were considered never consistently in the attempts of model building of an ETTC:
or mind to come in existence in the course of biological evolution: very primitive life forms have developed skilled techniques of gathering food,
and reproduce. 2 In the course of biological evolution the technique came to life as a form of searching for a bypass
At this point it is worth to point out that I agree with Joel Mokyr 19 that the unity of analysis that makes sense for the study of technological evolution is the dtechnique.
In fact Darwinism includes a broad theoretical framework for the evolution of all open, complex systems, including socioeconomic systems,
technological evolution as the continuation of biological evolution by other means (or more than blind variation plus selective retention) Karl Popper's 22 view of scientific progress as a cumulative selection process resembling Darwin
This hypothesis has paved the main road followed by modern thinkers in cultural evolution beginning with Donald Campbell 23 in the T. C. Devezas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1146 1960s (who coined the term Evolutionary Epistemology to characterize Popper
's epistemology) and conducting to some conceptual breakthroughs like Richard Dawkins'24 memes in the 1970s and more recently Daniel Dennet's 25 Darwin's Dangerous Idea (the idea that all the fruits of evolution,
unlike biological evolution, characterized by direct trial and error adaptation processes, knowledge processes evolve through vicarious forces,
in the case of genetic evolution, the most important evolutionary forces, processes that are capable of changing gene frequencies
and causing evolution, are mutation, genetic drift, gene flow, and natural selection, making unvarnished organic evolution a purely random variation and selective retention process.
Technological evolution (and cultural evolution as a whole) must be subject to more or less analogs of these four forces,
but is also subject to several kinds of vicarious forces. People are selected not only willy-nilly by natural selection,
after a lapse of almost a half century after the initial thrust commented on in point 1. Basically he suggested that Darwinism contained a general theory of the evolution of all complex systems,
and made the point that the appropriate analogy for social evolution is not biotic evolution,
but the more general process of evolution of complex systems dfor which organic evolution is but one instance.
In my view Campbell's concept of vicarious forces provide the suitable mechanism to ensure that cultural evolution does favor the fitness of our genes,
When discussing on the previous points I have pointed already out some features that have not been accounted yet for in the body of existing work on technological evolution.
T technological evolution cannot be thought as an independent evolutionary process, but it is part (the most energetic one) of a broad co-evolutionary set of processes,
some promising approaches As already mentioned there is a relatively vast literature in verbal theories of technological and cultural evolution,
the insistence of trying to map every element of technological evolution onto a precise correspondence in the biological counterpart;
and a formal (algorithmically based) model allowing the simulation of technological evolution was developed not yet, there are some attempts following this approach that deserve to be mentioned here.
Regarding their use in the simulation of technological evolution it has been used by one of Holland's students
which method is suited best for purposes of simulating technological evolution and/or for developing useful tools for technological forecasting.
cultural evolution (and technological evolution as well) is the continuation of biological evolution by other means;
technological evolution is not an independent evolutionary process, but it is the fastest and more energetic among a broad innovation-driven and co-evolutionary set of processes, composing the whole of the world system.
Synergy in Evolution and the Fate of Humankind, Cambridge university Press, 2003.6 R. A. Fisher, The Genetical Theory of Natural selection, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1930.7 A. Sigmund, J. Hofbauer
, An Evolutionary theory of Economic Change, Beknap of Harvard university Press, Boston, 1982.17 G. Baslalla, The Evolution of Technology, Cambridge university Press, 1988.18 H. Sachsse, Anthropologie der Technik
D. S. Bendall (Ed.),Evolution from Molecules to Men, Cambridge university Press, 1983, pp. 403 425.22 K. Popper, Objective Knowledge:
Life Sci. 23 (2001) 425 465.25 T. Devezas, G. Modelski, Power law behavior and world system evolution, Technol.
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