Theorist of urban planning Huw Thomas takes a pragmatic position when discussing the relationship of planning, power and values:‘
and benefits of linking territorial foresight tools to urban planning procedures. In addition they suggest ways to reinforce the scenario design method with more in depth analysis,
If this is achieved, the chances are high that foresight will elicit less technical skepticism in the urban planning realm.
and urban planning Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell and Leticia Redondo Abstract Purpose This article aims to show the opportunity
and benefits of linking territorial foresight tools to urban planning procedures. Additionally, it suggests ways to reinforce the scenario design method with more in depth analysis,
Originality/value The value of the present work lies in the synergy that can be generated between territorial foresight and urban planning
Keywords Territorial foresight, Scenario design, Urban planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Research paper 1. The oblivion of future studies in urban planning Since its origins in the nineteenth
century and its full development during the twentieth century, one of the key concerns of urban planning has been to foresee the future and limit uncertainty.
The oblivion of future studies in the urban planning field was denounced several years ago by practitioners and researchers (Isserman, 1985;
In the second half of the twentieth century, urban planning abandoned its visionary origins and became more technocratic,
The aftermath of quantitative models left the urban planning field with a profound scepticism of any kind of future-oriented analysis.
urban planning has become more of an action-oriented process with short and medium-term horizons.
When urban planning operates in a context with a rigid legal framework, excessive public intervention and public and private decision-makers acting in opaque and arbitrary ways,
whether it is convenient and feasible to recover these tools for the sake of our cities. 2. The standard urban planning process
Although urban planning takes different forms in diverse political, cultural and socioeconomic contexts, there is a standard process
Thus, urban planning can be conceptualised by two major sets of elements (see Figure 1). The first set is articulated by the urban planning value chain,
which displays in a sequential and hierarchical way how urban development proceeds from territorial planning to urban planning,
The most outstanding support elements of the urban planning process are the governance model the legal framework, the technology base and the management skills.
Second, the social debate inherent to urban planning and the need for stakeholder collaboration can be facilitated through a mutually beneficial symbiosis between futures studies and urban planning (Cole, 2001.
Since there are solid arguments for raising futures studies to a relevant position within the urban planning process,
Figure 1 Conceptual framework for urban planning PAGE 318 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. Participation.
Despite the well-deserved interest and merit of the previous references, specialized literature still shows a substantial divorce between the scope and content of foresight exercises and the specific needs of urban planning.
innovative research efforts geared to bridging the gap between these two fields of knowledge. 4. How to reconcile territorial foresight and urban planning Despite its apparent benefits,
With this aim in mind, an approach is presented hereby to link foresight tools and the urban planning process.
since most of the proposed steps have been used implicitly or explicitly in the urban planning field, its uniqueness emerges Figure 2 Linking foresight
and urban planning PAGE 320 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 because all the elements are used in an articulated and coherent way, with a foresight exercise as a solid starting point.
formulating a future vision for sustainable development Once the proposed approach to link foresight tools to the urban planning process has been established,
and also because it may induce disruptive transformations in the urban planning value chain. Since the Brundtland Commission defined sustainable development as‘‘the ability to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs''(World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987),
In order to reinforce the perception of scenario design as a useful and added value instrument for urban planning
the proposed methodology establishes a set of functional implications that each future scenario poses for the urban planning process.
For this purpose, the conceptual framework displaying the standard urban planning process, shown in Figure 1, is used to guide the implications analysis. Functional implications of Scenario A (2025).
B Strengthen the urban planning legislation to control real estate pressure. Figure 9 Spatial implications of Scenario B (2025) PAGE 330 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 B Pursue a massive incorporation of new technologies into public administration to improve
foresight with urban planning was developed over a five-year period. Due to the scarcity of research resources and the complexity of the topic, progress had to be attained through a slow, piecemeal effort in different research projects and academic activities.
B The urban planning processes will have to incorporate breakthrough innovations and subsequently, be totally reengineered. B The transformation of the planning process will require reciprocal changes in the legal framework and the governance model.
the present research lays the foundations for the integration of foresight methods with urban planning processes in order to achieve a more sustainable development model.
the chances are that foresight will elicit less technical scepticism in the urban planning realm. References Asociacio'n Plan Estrate'gico de Burgos (2009),‘Estudio de prospectiva territorial para la Ciudad de Burgos, unpublished study'',Asociacio
and policy roadmapping activities‘Linking territorial foresight and urban planning'Ferna'ndez Gu ell et al. 2012) Addresses spatial dimension in gradual transformation, combining both reactive and deliberate approaches in scenario work that integrate spatial dimensions of urban planning Elements of different modes of governance addressed.
For instance, integration in view of central planning vs. competition in view of market forces defining urban development Individual regional foresight project‘Embedding foresight in transnatiiona research programming'Deals with deliberate approach to both rapid
L. 2012)‘ Linking territorial foresight and urban planning',Foresight (forthcoming). Funtowitz, S. and Ravetz, J. R. 1994)‘ Emergent complex systems',Futures, 26: 568 82.
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