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| Delphi methodology (6) | |
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also earlier technology forecasting approaches like the large Delphi studies introduced in Japan in the early seventies
the usability of the Delphi methodology is discussed and results of a Delphi survey in the telecommunication area are presented.
The paper concludes with a comparative analysis of the three methodological approaches regarding their effectiveness to conduct regulatory foresight. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Delphi survey 1. Introduction 1. 1. Background In the last few years, the issue of regulatory impact assessment (RIA) has become very attractive, in particular among European policy-makers.
indicator-based approaches surveys Delphi studies. 3. Methodologies 3. 1. Indicator-based approaches 3. 1. 1. Introduction and definition New developments in science and technology
e g. surveys or Delphi studies. 503 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 3. 2. Surveys 3. 2. 1. Introduction and definition
i e. helping to identify needs for regulatory policy intervention. 3. 3. Delphi studies 3. 3. 1. Introduction
and definition Delphi studies achieved high popularity in Europe in the 1990s 10,11. The Delphi method was developed originally in the USA,
already in the 1960s 40,41 and regularly implemented by the Japanese government since 1970s 42. The Delphi methodology belongs to the subjective and intuitive methods of foresight.
Issues are assessed, on which only uncertain and incomplete knowledge exists. It is structured based on a survey of expert groups
the Delphi method has both quantitative and qualitative dimensions. There is not a single method, but all agree that a Delphi study requires an expert survey in at least two or more rounds.
Starting from the second round, a feedback is given about the results of previous rounds: the same experts assess the same matters once more,
Although Delphi studies are also capable of identifying promising fields or future needs for regulation, the issue of regulation was taken only into account in the large national Delphi exercises in Japan 43,
In the following Sixth Japanese and Second German Delphi studies 45,46, all obstacle categories were changed into policy measures
In the first German Delphi survey, the field communication was characterised by the most negative values regarding the impact of the regulatory framework3 because of the former monopolistic structures in the telecommunication markets and the massive public intervention in the radio
From these experiences, it can also be derived that the Delphi methodology can be used to set priorities in regulation
or emerging markets. 3. 3. 3. A Delphi survey among telecommunication experts Whereas in most of the previous selected examples of Delphi studies regulation was a side aspect of secondary relevance,
in the final section we will present some results of a small-scale Delphi study among participants of an ITU (International Telecommunication Union) expert workshop on Adjusting Forecasting methods to the Needs of the Telecommunication Sector organised in September 2004.
In addition recycling of computers can be 4 Based on the results of the First German Delphi study 44, the Fifth Japanese Delphi study 45,
However, the sound experiences of the Japanese and German Delphi studies underline that foresight methodologies can be applied for the identification and setting priorities of future areas of regulation and therefore also of standardisation
Furthermore, the small-scale Delphi survey focusing on the future demand for standards in the ICT area confirmed the general applicability of this approach,
Nevertheless, there is a tendency to overburden certain approaches, like Delphi surveys, which may damage their acceptance.
The application of the Delphi method to the issue of regulations and standards requires the development of questionnaires,
The Delphi survey should be addressed to all parties involved in the regulatory process itself, but also to all possible direct users of the regulated products and services and indirectly influenced parties.
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Since Delphi surveys run at least two rounds, it is necessary to have samples
Delphi surveys are flexible and can be applied in all areas, covering all possible future driving forces, but also possible impacts of regulations and standards.
Delphi surveys require the identification of a sufficient number of experts dealing with regulatory issues and being able to assess the future role and types of regulation.
An important general limitation of the Delphi method is the well-known fact that sudden science and technology breakthroughs often have not been foreseen by the majority of main stream oriented experts,
This raises in general no problems for Delphi studies focusing on regulatory issues since the time frame of such studies should not be much more than ten years.
A classical feature of the Delphi methodology is the promotion of a convergence process leading to a consensus by surveying the experts at least twice
The same is true for Delphi surveys. Consequently, the combination of indicator-based approaches, which allow at least the identification of stakeholders in science
and semiquantiitativ data from Delphi surveys Consensus-building to reduce uncertainty about regulatory priorities and impacts Impossibility to detect major technological breakthroughs and their regulatory requirements Semiquantiitativ In case of conflicting interests, missing-consensus about priorities Identification of experts Uncertainty increases with complexity of the context (technology, markets
The use of Delphi studies for regulatory foresight is faced with the similar strengths and weaknesses of using this approach to identify future trends in science and technology.
This much more complex community of experts is also a challenge for designing the Delphi survey questionnaire.
In addition, the time frame of Delphi studies focusing on regulatory issues should be much shorter covering only the next ten years,
Change 60 (1)( 1999) 15 35.11 J. Landeta, Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences, Technol.
The Delphi method, Rand Corporation, Santa monica, 1967.17 J. Irvine, B. R. Martin, Foresight in Science, Picking the Winners, London, Dover, 1984.18 P. Swann:
scenario building and Delphi method may serve the prognosis phase and the prescription phase utilizes the roadmapping, backasting, modelling or simulation methods 42.
The Delphi method was accomplished with pencil and paper in 1963, and sent through mail. However, if the current trends continue,
In order to save time, no Delphi survey like in some of the previous German foresight activities was planned 16,17.
This forced the topic coordinators of the process to formulate the future topics very precisely similar to a Delphi survey.
These could be ranked like in the Japanese Delphi surveys 4. One of many tables is shown in Table 1:
The Delphi surveys 16 were known mainly by expert communities who participated because at that point in time foresight was relatively new for German communities and for the ministry itself.
) Report no. 94, NISTEP, Tôkyô, 2005.7 O. Kuusi, E. Hiltunen, H. Linturi, Heikot tulevaisuussignaalit Delfoi tutkimus (Weak signals a Delphi study), Futura, vol. 2
‘Futur the German Research Dialogue',Research Evaluation, vol. 13,2004, pp. 143 153,3. 15 M. J. Bardecki, Participant's Response to the Delphi method:
'and were based on US experience of the Delphi method. As a result, there are two general shapes to Foresight studies that flow from early decisions about their procedures and management structure.
The fact that Delphi surveys often solely include point of views from scientists indicates that scientists in such surveey are expected to know about the future development of technology.
or other societal actors also were included in Delphi surveys. Following foresight exercises in many countries during the 1990s, there now seems to be a new wave of research
Delphi studies and other judgemental methods can be perceived as a systematic way of dealing with political interests,
Foresight methods preferred under this approach focus on key actors and their viewpoints, for example stakeholder analyses and Delphi studies.
and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 931 a full Delphi survey could be applied, but the process could also benefit from just getting inspiration from formulation of Delphi statements.
surveys and Delphi studies are reviewed in the light of experience. An important finding in relation to the interest of this paper is that a simple transfer of the methodologies to identify emerging science
Fixed Scenario workshops, on-line Delphi study, on-line forum, national seminars(‘‘FISTERA road show'')supported by desk research.
business actors and researchers from all EU Member States responded to the on-line Delphi study. In addition, more than 600 stakeholders in a various EU Member States were addressed in a series of national seminars.
Consensual The 8th Japanese technology foresight program consists of consensual Delphi survey, scenario, bibliometrics and needs analyses.
About 2239 experts participated in Delphi survey. Also, many experts of social sciences participated in scenarios analysis
Consensual NTFC has identified lots of key technologies in 9 research fields based on the Delphi survey. Fixed The methodology was fixed at the beginning.
and identified 734 key technologies in 8 research fields based on the Delphi survey. Fixed The methodology was fixed at the beginning.
by using amethod similar to a Delphi survey. T. Ko nno la et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 261 Information society.
many Delphi studies do take this form, having retained the name but stripped away much of the practice instituted by the Delphi pioneers. 3 At best,
and Miles 33 for a detailed comparison of two different approaches to eliciting expert opinion (cross-impact versus Delphi method).
Specific methods Delphi surveys, brainstorming, scenario workshops, etc. may be used to elicit and share such information, although it may be less easy to capture in a structured way as would be the information from, for example, statistical data or trend extrapolations.
R &d activities and strategy work Regional and national strategies and priority setting International agreements/strategies/priority setting Expert interviews Delphi surveys, questionnaires Interactive workshops focusing on SWOT
The Delphi method: Techniques and Applications, Addison-Wesley, Boston, 1975 (available at: http://www. is. njit. edu/pubs/delphibook/delphibook. pdf (accessed 29/07/09)).35 C. W. Choo, The Knowing Organization:
Delphi survey, SWOT analysis and scenario development methods in various contexts over the last ten years. He is a Board member of The swiss Academic Association for Environmental Research and Ecology (SAGUF
Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report
Gordon, T. J. 2010),‘The Delphi method'',in Gordon, T. J. and Glenn, J. Eds), Futures research methodology CD Version 3. 0, Ch. 4, Millennium Project, WASHINGTON DC.
Linstone, H. A. and Turoff, M. Eds)( 1975), The Delphi method: Techniques and Applications, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.
Delphi studies and scenario planning. In the following section, I shall briefly explain how each of these tools were used in this particular research project.
This innovative application of the Delphi method to Law resulted in an impressive collection of themes and visions, encompassing topics as diverse as the future of international law, national constitutional orders and private law,
Contrarily to the‘‘traditional''Delphi method, which tends to lead to consensual assessments of the future (Blind,
and instruments described above (Delphi surveys, scenario planning, backcasting, modelling systems and simulation platforms) offer a number of important advantages when applied to the legal context.
Regarding specific FTA TOOLS, survey approaches such as the Delphi methodology used by the LOFT project carry specific benefits to Law.
reflecting on the application of fta tools and methods (such as Delphi surveys, scenario planning, backcasting and modelling techniques) to the legal sphere,
surveys and foresight studies Delphi methodology and scenarios) that are adequate to conduct regulatory foresight, and which allow the identification of future fields for regulatory policy intervention.
Although this is not equivalent to more traditional and long-term forecasting methods such as Delphi studies or scenarios, it is nonetheless an effective means of guiding the science and technology enterprise in the shorter term.
Design/methodology/approach Three investigative studies using the Delphi method, scenario and workshop were conducted independently in consideration of four global or national challenges.
Information from the Delphi method and scenario is converged using text mining to position scientific and technological areas in a big picture.
Keywords Foresight, Combination, Delphi method, Scenario, Innovation, Sustainable development, Forward planning Paper type Case study 1. Introduction The situation surrounding science and technology has undergone a radical change in recent years.
B the Delphi method is used often with literature review, expert panel, and brainstorming; and B workshop is used with literature review, expert panel, and scenario.
The Delphi method is regarded as one of the useful information sources for scenario (Loveridge, 1999. The Delphi method is discussed also from the viewpoint of a combination with road mapping (Kanama et al.
2008). ) According to the meta-analysis mentioned above, around 20-39 percent of Delphi exercises are combined with scenario.
The Delphi survey in the 9th Foresight exercise aims to outline the future prospect of development in science
and international expansion. 2. 3. 2 Scenes of life based on results of Delphi survey. Life scenes were developed based on the average future outlook of many experts.
or the Delphi survey come disproportionately from the middle-aged generation. VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 9 2. 4 Workshop Workshops were held in eight local regions in Japan,
and Technology information for analysis is obtained from the Delphi survey and scenario building by group work in the 9th Foresight exercise.
A combination of the outputs from the Delphi survey and scenario building has the possibility of providing a balanced whole picture of science
Information on key areas from the Delphi survey is added to the map to discuss the overall view of science
indicating their status as common infrastructure. 4. 3 Areas where innovation is expected in the future The Delphi survey identified 36 key areas out of all 94 areas set by the panels,
an efficient,‘round-less',almost real time Delphi method'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 73, pp. 321-33.
integration of technology roadmapping and the Delphi method'',International Journal of Technology intelligence and Planning, Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 184-200.
on the basis of this experience, it is suggested that a widespread national Delphi survey for the identification of science
The Delphi method was the key instrument. The principal stages included: B preliminary desk research; B socioeconomic objectives analysis;
More than 2, 000 experts from 40 Russian regions took part in the Delphi survey, representing all leading R&d and industrial centres.
In the framework of the Delphi survey each topic was evaluated by the following criteria: B importance to Russia;
However, the real contribution of the Delphi study results to the development of policy documents was mostly indirect
the real contribution of the Delphi study results to policy documents was mostly indirect because we could not assess to what extent the project materials were in the development of these documents Indirect FS2 The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,
widespread national Delphi survey for the identification S&t priorities (which was our FS1) should be complemented by the identification of key long-term demand for resources
an environmental technologies action plan for the European union'',COM (2004) 38, European commission, Brussels. Loveridge, D.,Georghiou, L. and Nedeva, M. 1995),‘United kingdom Foresight programme, Delphi survey'',PREST
The 9th Delphi survey'',NISTEP Report No. 140, National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Tokyo. National research council Canada (2005),‘Looking forward:
the Delphi study results'',Foresight, Vol. 10 No. 3 (in Russian. United nations Industrial Development Organization (2007), Technology foresight Summit Workbook, United nations Industrial Development Organization, Budapest.
In Delphi Austria, an analysis of the Japanese, German, French, British Delphi studies was conducted to separate
and interactions. 2. Methodological approach 2. 1 Delphi method background Delphi was developed in the 1950s by the US RAND Corporation
The Delphi method is especially useful for long-range forecasting (2030 years), as expert opinions are the only source of information available.
Meanwhile, the communication effect of Delphi studies and the value of the process are acknowledged also. 2. 2 Basic information for the scanned Delphi topics The Delphi topics used for sustainable energy are chosen from foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China.
and hence the technology trends provided by the scanned Delphi survey will provide a long-term view while the result from patent analysis for CTI or for forecasting provide a short-term view.
''In summary, by mapping the important topics from the Delphi survey results of Japan, South korea and China,
For instance, quantitative analysis of this kind offers valuable information for the development of S&t Delphi survey topics,
Similarly, decision-makers can claim that the wrong people were involved in a Delphi survey, or they simply distrust the foresight process,
analysts often use techniques such as exploratory scenarios 9, Delphi surveys 10, and the analysis of wild cards and weak signals 11.
The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, 1996.10 H. A. Lindstone, M. Turoff, The Delphi method: Techniques and Applications, Adison-Wesley, 1975.11 O. Saritas, J. E. Smith, The Big Picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals, Futures 43
The Delphi method is developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method, which relies on a panel of experts.
Delphi method is based on the assumption that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments. It is a method for structuring a group communication process
For example Delphi studies use statements about the future, roadmaps and backcasting use end-point states, while most of the other techniques described produce narratives or images of alternative future states.
The Delphi method, 2002,(Last accessed 31/01/12 and available at http://www. is. njit. edu/pubs/delphibook.
It is well known that the anonymity of Delphi surveys allows respondents in uncertainty avoiding societies such as Japan, to express view points and disagreement without involving personal sym-or antipathies.
Expert Panels and to some extent Delphi surveys are examples of foresight methods that have a high content of expertise.
such as the Delphi method, is in P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 9 common use in South Europe and South america and totally absent among the top 10 foresight methods in Northwest Europe and North america.
most civil servants were also familiar with‘future essays',quantitative futures research, the Delphi method, game simulations and future workshops.
Up to the 1980s, futures research focused on forecasting future developments by applying s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models 18 20.
and backcasting or the above-mentioned s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models. Thus, it supports companies'efforts to sense change
and tipping points, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 715 730.19 K. Cuhls, Foresight with Delphi surveys in Japan, Technology analysis & Strategic management 13 (2001) 555 569.20 K
a sector analysiis a Delphi survey, a scenario process leading to an analysis of issues and a final policy analysis.
The first findings were submitted then for assessment by a large numbbe of experts via a broad participatory tool, the Delphi survey.
Delphi survey We used the Delphi method to elicit views from a wide-ranging audience on current and future trends Box 1. The creative content sector on the move Figure 3 shows the various stakeholders involved and the technology trends
Like in a classical tworooun Delphi survey, experts participated in a surveey in which they had to assess topics based on statements about the future.
111 experts with a focus on creative content to participate in the Delphi survey that ran during June 2007.
In a nutshell, the Delphi survey revealed only a small number of topics where experts did not reach a consensus about the likely future development.
With hindsight a Delphi survey was possibly not the ideal research instrument, since it could not identiif radically new developments.
and complemented by the Delphi survey served as an input for a scenario building workshop. The addition of a scenario process emerged at that point as a necessary new building block to our adaptiiv foresight methodology.
Energy forecasts using a‘Roundless'approach to running a Delphi study. Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic thinking and Policy, 9 (2), 27 35.
Cuhls, K. 2001)‘ Foresight with Delphi surveys in Japan',Technology analysis & Strategic management, 13: 555 69. Daheim, C. and Uerz, G. 2008)‘ Corporate foresight in Europe:
Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 76: 327 38. Freund, F. 2011)‘ Pre-earthquake signals:
Indeed, in comparison with more structured approaches such as Delphi studies a distinctive and defining feature of horizon scanning is that there are no strong a priori constraints on
They were even part of a Delphi survey (Cuhls et al. 2002; Blind et al. 2001) to highlight topics that should be assessed in science and technology.
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