| Delphi method (35) |  |
| Delphi methodology (6) | |
| Delphi study (35) | |
| Delphi survey (62) | |
| Delphi method (35) | |
| Delphi methodology (6) | |
| Delphi study (35) | |
| Delphi survey (62) | |
The Delphi method was developed originally in the USA, already in the 1960s 40,41 and regularly implemented by the Japanese government since 1970s 42.
the Delphi method has both quantitative and qualitative dimensions. There is not a single method, but all agree that a Delphi study requires an expert survey in at least two or more rounds.
The application of the Delphi method to the issue of regulations and standards requires the development of questionnaires,
An important general limitation of the Delphi method is the well-known fact that sudden science and technology breakthroughs often have not been foreseen by the majority of main stream oriented experts,
Change 60 (1)( 1999) 15 35.11 J. Landeta, Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences, Technol.
The Delphi method, Rand Corporation, Santa monica, 1967.17 J. Irvine, B. R. Martin, Foresight in Science, Picking the Winners, London, Dover, 1984.18 P. Swann:
scenario building and Delphi method may serve the prognosis phase and the prescription phase utilizes the roadmapping, backasting, modelling or simulation methods 42.
The Delphi method was accomplished with pencil and paper in 1963, and sent through mail. However, if the current trends continue,
‘Futur the German Research Dialogue',Research Evaluation, vol. 13,2004, pp. 143 153,3. 15 M. J. Bardecki, Participant's Response to the Delphi method:
'and were based on US experience of the Delphi method. As a result, there are two general shapes to Foresight studies that flow from early decisions about their procedures and management structure.
and Miles 33 for a detailed comparison of two different approaches to eliciting expert opinion (cross-impact versus Delphi method).
The Delphi method: Techniques and Applications, Addison-Wesley, Boston, 1975 (available at: http://www. is. njit. edu/pubs/delphibook/delphibook. pdf (accessed 29/07/09)).35 C. W. Choo, The Knowing Organization:
Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report
Gordon, T. J. 2010),‘The Delphi method'',in Gordon, T. J. and Glenn, J. Eds), Futures research methodology CD Version 3. 0, Ch. 4, Millennium Project, WASHINGTON DC.
Linstone, H. A. and Turoff, M. Eds)( 1975), The Delphi method: Techniques and Applications, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.
This innovative application of the Delphi method to Law resulted in an impressive collection of themes and visions, encompassing topics as diverse as the future of international law, national constitutional orders and private law,
Contrarily to the‘‘traditional''Delphi method, which tends to lead to consensual assessments of the future (Blind,
Design/methodology/approach Three investigative studies using the Delphi method, scenario and workshop were conducted independently in consideration of four global or national challenges.
Information from the Delphi method and scenario is converged using text mining to position scientific and technological areas in a big picture.
Keywords Foresight, Combination, Delphi method, Scenario, Innovation, Sustainable development, Forward planning Paper type Case study 1. Introduction The situation surrounding science and technology has undergone a radical change in recent years.
B the Delphi method is used often with literature review, expert panel, and brainstorming; and B workshop is used with literature review, expert panel, and scenario.
The Delphi method is regarded as one of the useful information sources for scenario (Loveridge, 1999. The Delphi method is discussed also from the viewpoint of a combination with road mapping (Kanama et al.
2008). ) According to the meta-analysis mentioned above, around 20-39 percent of Delphi exercises are combined with scenario.
an efficient,‘round-less',almost real time Delphi method'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 73, pp. 321-33.
integration of technology roadmapping and the Delphi method'',International Journal of Technology intelligence and Planning, Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 184-200.
The Delphi method was the key instrument. The principal stages included: B preliminary desk research; B socioeconomic objectives analysis;
and interactions. 2. Methodological approach 2. 1 Delphi method background Delphi was developed in the 1950s by the US RAND Corporation
The Delphi method is especially useful for long-range forecasting (2030 years), as expert opinions are the only source of information available.
The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, 1996.10 H. A. Lindstone, M. Turoff, The Delphi method: Techniques and Applications, Adison-Wesley, 1975.11 O. Saritas, J. E. Smith, The Big Picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals, Futures 43
The Delphi method is developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method, which relies on a panel of experts.
Delphi method is based on the assumption that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments. It is a method for structuring a group communication process
The Delphi method, 2002,(Last accessed 31/01/12 and available at http://www. is. njit. edu/pubs/delphibook.
such as the Delphi method, is in P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 9 common use in South Europe and South america and totally absent among the top 10 foresight methods in Northwest Europe and North america.
most civil servants were also familiar with‘future essays',quantitative futures research, the Delphi method, game simulations and future workshops.
Delphi survey We used the Delphi method to elicit views from a wide-ranging audience on current and future trends Box 1. The creative content sector on the move Figure 3 shows the various stakeholders involved and the technology trends
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