| Delphi method (35) |  |
| Delphi methodology (6) | |
| Delphi study (35) | |
| Delphi survey (62) | |
| Delphi method (35) | |
| Delphi methodology (6) | |
| Delphi study (35) | |
| Delphi survey (62) | |
and results of a Delphi survey in the telecommunication area are presented. The paper concludes with a comparative analysis of the three methodological approaches regarding their effectiveness to conduct regulatory foresight. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Delphi survey 1. Introduction 1. 1. Background In the last few years, the issue of regulatory impact assessment (RIA) has become very attractive, in particular among European policy-makers.
In the first German Delphi survey, the field communication was characterised by the most negative values regarding the impact of the regulatory framework3 because of the former monopolistic structures in the telecommunication markets and the massive public intervention in the radio
or emerging markets. 3. 3. 3. A Delphi survey among telecommunication experts Whereas in most of the previous selected examples of Delphi studies regulation was a side aspect of secondary relevance,
Furthermore, the small-scale Delphi survey focusing on the future demand for standards in the ICT area confirmed the general applicability of this approach,
Nevertheless, there is a tendency to overburden certain approaches, like Delphi surveys, which may damage their acceptance.
The Delphi survey should be addressed to all parties involved in the regulatory process itself, but also to all possible direct users of the regulated products and services and indirectly influenced parties.
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Since Delphi surveys run at least two rounds, it is necessary to have samples
Delphi surveys are flexible and can be applied in all areas, covering all possible future driving forces, but also possible impacts of regulations and standards.
Delphi surveys require the identification of a sufficient number of experts dealing with regulatory issues and being able to assess the future role and types of regulation.
The same is true for Delphi surveys. Consequently, the combination of indicator-based approaches, which allow at least the identification of stakeholders in science
and semiquantiitativ data from Delphi surveys Consensus-building to reduce uncertainty about regulatory priorities and impacts Impossibility to detect major technological breakthroughs and their regulatory requirements Semiquantiitativ In case of conflicting interests, missing-consensus about priorities Identification of experts Uncertainty increases with complexity of the context (technology, markets
This much more complex community of experts is also a challenge for designing the Delphi survey questionnaire.
In order to save time, no Delphi survey like in some of the previous German foresight activities was planned 16,17.
This forced the topic coordinators of the process to formulate the future topics very precisely similar to a Delphi survey.
These could be ranked like in the Japanese Delphi surveys 4. One of many tables is shown in Table 1:
The Delphi surveys 16 were known mainly by expert communities who participated because at that point in time foresight was relatively new for German communities and for the ministry itself.
The fact that Delphi surveys often solely include point of views from scientists indicates that scientists in such surveey are expected to know about the future development of technology.
or other societal actors also were included in Delphi surveys. Following foresight exercises in many countries during the 1990s, there now seems to be a new wave of research
and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 931 a full Delphi survey could be applied, but the process could also benefit from just getting inspiration from formulation of Delphi statements.
Consensual The 8th Japanese technology foresight program consists of consensual Delphi survey, scenario, bibliometrics and needs analyses.
About 2239 experts participated in Delphi survey. Also, many experts of social sciences participated in scenarios analysis
Consensual NTFC has identified lots of key technologies in 9 research fields based on the Delphi survey. Fixed The methodology was fixed at the beginning.
and identified 734 key technologies in 8 research fields based on the Delphi survey. Fixed The methodology was fixed at the beginning.
by using amethod similar to a Delphi survey. T. Ko nno la et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 261 Information society.
Specific methods Delphi surveys, brainstorming, scenario workshops, etc. may be used to elicit and share such information, although it may be less easy to capture in a structured way as would be the information from, for example, statistical data or trend extrapolations.
R &d activities and strategy work Regional and national strategies and priority setting International agreements/strategies/priority setting Expert interviews Delphi surveys, questionnaires Interactive workshops focusing on SWOT
Delphi survey, SWOT analysis and scenario development methods in various contexts over the last ten years. He is a Board member of The swiss Academic Association for Environmental Research and Ecology (SAGUF
and instruments described above (Delphi surveys, scenario planning, backcasting, modelling systems and simulation platforms) offer a number of important advantages when applied to the legal context.
reflecting on the application of fta tools and methods (such as Delphi surveys, scenario planning, backcasting and modelling techniques) to the legal sphere,
The Delphi survey in the 9th Foresight exercise aims to outline the future prospect of development in science
and international expansion. 2. 3. 2 Scenes of life based on results of Delphi survey. Life scenes were developed based on the average future outlook of many experts.
or the Delphi survey come disproportionately from the middle-aged generation. VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 9 2. 4 Workshop Workshops were held in eight local regions in Japan,
and Technology information for analysis is obtained from the Delphi survey and scenario building by group work in the 9th Foresight exercise.
A combination of the outputs from the Delphi survey and scenario building has the possibility of providing a balanced whole picture of science
Information on key areas from the Delphi survey is added to the map to discuss the overall view of science
indicating their status as common infrastructure. 4. 3 Areas where innovation is expected in the future The Delphi survey identified 36 key areas out of all 94 areas set by the panels,
on the basis of this experience, it is suggested that a widespread national Delphi survey for the identification of science
More than 2, 000 experts from 40 Russian regions took part in the Delphi survey, representing all leading R&d and industrial centres.
In the framework of the Delphi survey each topic was evaluated by the following criteria: B importance to Russia;
widespread national Delphi survey for the identification S&t priorities (which was our FS1) should be complemented by the identification of key long-term demand for resources
an environmental technologies action plan for the European union'',COM (2004) 38, European commission, Brussels. Loveridge, D.,Georghiou, L. and Nedeva, M. 1995),‘United kingdom Foresight programme, Delphi survey'',PREST
The 9th Delphi survey'',NISTEP Report No. 140, National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Tokyo. National research council Canada (2005),‘Looking forward:
and hence the technology trends provided by the scanned Delphi survey will provide a long-term view while the result from patent analysis for CTI or for forecasting provide a short-term view.
''In summary, by mapping the important topics from the Delphi survey results of Japan, South korea and China,
For instance, quantitative analysis of this kind offers valuable information for the development of S&t Delphi survey topics,
Similarly, decision-makers can claim that the wrong people were involved in a Delphi survey, or they simply distrust the foresight process,
analysts often use techniques such as exploratory scenarios 9, Delphi surveys 10, and the analysis of wild cards and weak signals 11.
It is well known that the anonymity of Delphi surveys allows respondents in uncertainty avoiding societies such as Japan, to express view points and disagreement without involving personal sym-or antipathies.
Expert Panels and to some extent Delphi surveys are examples of foresight methods that have a high content of expertise.
and tipping points, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 715 730.19 K. Cuhls, Foresight with Delphi surveys in Japan, Technology analysis & Strategic management 13 (2001) 555 569.20 K
a sector analysiis a Delphi survey, a scenario process leading to an analysis of issues and a final policy analysis.
The first findings were submitted then for assessment by a large numbbe of experts via a broad participatory tool, the Delphi survey.
Delphi survey We used the Delphi method to elicit views from a wide-ranging audience on current and future trends Box 1. The creative content sector on the move Figure 3 shows the various stakeholders involved and the technology trends
Like in a classical tworooun Delphi survey, experts participated in a surveey in which they had to assess topics based on statements about the future.
111 experts with a focus on creative content to participate in the Delphi survey that ran during June 2007.
In a nutshell, the Delphi survey revealed only a small number of topics where experts did not reach a consensus about the likely future development.
With hindsight a Delphi survey was possibly not the ideal research instrument, since it could not identiif radically new developments.
and complemented by the Delphi survey served as an input for a scenario building workshop. The addition of a scenario process emerged at that point as a necessary new building block to our adaptiiv foresight methodology.
Cuhls, K. 2001)‘ Foresight with Delphi surveys in Japan',Technology analysis & Strategic management, 13: 555 69. Daheim, C. and Uerz, G. 2008)‘ Corporate foresight in Europe:
Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 76: 327 38. Freund, F. 2011)‘ Pre-earthquake signals:
They were even part of a Delphi survey (Cuhls et al. 2002; Blind et al. 2001) to highlight topics that should be assessed in science and technology.
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