Delphi study

Delphi method (35)
Delphi methodology (6)
Delphi study (35)
Delphi survey (62)

Synopsis: Delphi: Delphi study:

also earlier technology forecasting approaches like the large Delphi studies introduced in Japan in the early seventies

indicator-based approaches surveys Delphi studies. 3. Methodologies 3. 1. Indicator-based approaches 3. 1. 1. Introduction and definition New developments in science and technology

e g. surveys or Delphi studies. 503 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 3. 2. Surveys 3. 2. 1. Introduction and definition

i e. helping to identify needs for regulatory policy intervention. 3. 3. Delphi studies 3. 3. 1. Introduction

and definition Delphi studies achieved high popularity in Europe in the 1990s 10,11. The Delphi method was developed originally in the USA,

but all agree that a Delphi study requires an expert survey in at least two or more rounds.

Although Delphi studies are also capable of identifying promising fields or future needs for regulation, the issue of regulation was taken only into account in the large national Delphi exercises in Japan 43,

In the following Sixth Japanese and Second German Delphi studies 45,46, all obstacle categories were changed into policy measures

or emerging markets. 3. 3. 3. A Delphi survey among telecommunication experts Whereas in most of the previous selected examples of Delphi studies regulation was a side aspect of secondary relevance,

in the final section we will present some results of a small-scale Delphi study among participants of an ITU (International Telecommunication Union) expert workshop on Adjusting Forecasting methods to the Needs of the Telecommunication Sector organised in September 2004.

In addition recycling of computers can be 4 Based on the results of the First German Delphi study 44, the Fifth Japanese Delphi study 45,

However, the sound experiences of the Japanese and German Delphi studies underline that foresight methodologies can be applied for the identification and setting priorities of future areas of regulation and therefore also of standardisation

This raises in general no problems for Delphi studies focusing on regulatory issues since the time frame of such studies should not be much more than ten years.

The use of Delphi studies for regulatory foresight is faced with the similar strengths and weaknesses of using this approach to identify future trends in science and technology.

In addition, the time frame of Delphi studies focusing on regulatory issues should be much shorter covering only the next ten years,

) Report no. 94, NISTEP, Tôkyô, 2005.7 O. Kuusi, E. Hiltunen, H. Linturi, Heikot tulevaisuussignaalit Delfoi tutkimus (Weak signals a Delphi study), Futura, vol. 2

Delphi studies and other judgemental methods can be perceived as a systematic way of dealing with political interests,

Foresight methods preferred under this approach focus on key actors and their viewpoints, for example stakeholder analyses and Delphi studies.

surveys and Delphi studies are reviewed in the light of experience. An important finding in relation to the interest of this paper is that a simple transfer of the methodologies to identify emerging science

Fixed Scenario workshops, on-line Delphi study, on-line forum, national seminars(‘‘FISTERA road show'')supported by desk research.

business actors and researchers from all EU Member States responded to the on-line Delphi study. In addition, more than 600 stakeholders in a various EU Member States were addressed in a series of national seminars.

many Delphi studies do take this form, having retained the name but stripped away much of the practice instituted by the Delphi pioneers. 3 At best,

Delphi studies and scenario planning. In the following section, I shall briefly explain how each of these tools were used in this particular research project.

Although this is not equivalent to more traditional and long-term forecasting methods such as Delphi studies or scenarios, it is nonetheless an effective means of guiding the science and technology enterprise in the shorter term.

However, the real contribution of the Delphi study results to the development of policy documents was mostly indirect

the real contribution of the Delphi study results to policy documents was mostly indirect because we could not assess to what extent the project materials were in the development of these documents Indirect FS2 The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,

the Delphi study results'',Foresight, Vol. 10 No. 3 (in Russian. United nations Industrial Development Organization (2007), Technology foresight Summit Workbook, United nations Industrial Development Organization, Budapest.

In Delphi Austria, an analysis of the Japanese, German, French, British Delphi studies was conducted to separate

Meanwhile, the communication effect of Delphi studies and the value of the process are acknowledged also. 2. 2 Basic information for the scanned Delphi topics The Delphi topics used for sustainable energy are chosen from foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China.

For example Delphi studies use statements about the future, roadmaps and backcasting use end-point states, while most of the other techniques described produce narratives or images of alternative future states.

Up to the 1980s, futures research focused on forecasting future developments by applying s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models 18 20.

and backcasting or the above-mentioned s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models. Thus, it supports companies'efforts to sense change

Energy forecasts using a‘Roundless'approach to running a Delphi study. Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic thinking and Policy, 9 (2), 27 35.

Indeed, in comparison with more structured approaches such as Delphi studies a distinctive and defining feature of horizon scanning is that there are no strong a priori constraints on

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