Theory

Complexity theory (16)
Dynamic theory (4)
Evolutionary theory (9)
Theoretic (68)
Theory (181)
Theory building (3)
Theory of innovation (11)

Synopsis: Theory:

They ranged over linking evolutionary theory with foresight to provide F. Scapolo/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 1061 new ways of framing studies, applying the concepts underlying marketing tools based on human behaviour to foresight design,

This chapter can be said to be theoretic in nature. The third section, in contrast, is practice-oriented in providing a process outline and examples of AF.

To us this linkage of theory and practice is really the essence of the paper:

and are also able in turn to contribute to enhancing theoretic understanding of innovation. This said we do acknowledge that some innovation theorists are likely to skip much of Section 3

But we would like to point also to a third main constituent, namely a perspective on innovation processes that is based on contemporary empirical and theoretical research as well as (some) practical experience.

and Pindyck 23 and Copeland and Antikarov 24 have prepared two very useful texts on real options theory. 13 See for instance the emphasis put on learning processes in protected spaces which is core to the approaches of Strategic

for instance in order to ensure coordination and cooperation between different actors and stakeholders. 22 An alternative, more theory-led,

Theory, Evidence and Policy, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2004.41 W. Polt, K. M. Weber, Forschung, Technologie und Innovation für Wohlstand in gesellschaftlicher Verantwortung.

Lessons from Japan, Pinter, London, 1987.45 B.-A. Lundvall (Ed.),National systems of Innovation, Towards a Theory of innovation and Interactive learning, Pinter, London, 1992.46 A. Bergek, S. Jacobsson, B

Handbook of Quantitative Science and Technology research, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht (The netherlands), 2004.21 K. Blind, The Economics of Standards Theory, Evidence, Policy, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham

theoretical discussion and empirical test, Serv. Ind. J. 26 (4)( 2006. 38 European commission Enterprise Directorate-General, Programming Mandate Addressed to CEN, CENELEC and ETSI in the Field of Services, European commission, Brussels, 2003.39 K. Blind, S. Gauch, Frictions

Studies in economic history, organizational dynamics and institution theory have given also rise to the notion of paths.

Policy, 11 (3)( 1982) 147 162.35 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of useful theory of innovation, Res.

outline of the theory of structuration, Polity Press, Cambridge, 1984.41 D. K. R. Robinson, M. Ruivenkamp, A. Rip, Tracking the evolution of new and Emerging s&t via statement-linkages:

'The diversity of the above areas suggests that foresight process impacts should be interpreted through the lenses of epistemology, sociology, political science, management science and organisational theory.

Molina 28 studied networks and alignments in large-scale European projects using the‘socio-technical constituencies'12 approach of organisational behaviour theory.

A first attempt was made to study the specificities of the areas relating to networking and actor alignment, mainly based on organisational behaviour and governance theories.

Further work in this area will study other impact areas from the perspective of relevant theories

and several major inventions have preceded long the proper theories of their underpinning scientific principles, such as the steam engine, the first airplanes, semiconductors, etc.

Hierarchies are one form of technological structure confirmed by theories and practice. A hierarchy is one structure of many that have been used for technological integration 14.

Thus, there is a rich basis of theoretical support for structuring technological component data in a hierarchical format.

interpretation, theory, robustness and also the production of actionable results. An unstructured network contains many parameters,

conforming to theories about the organization of science and technology. Without a theory of the data the technology analyst cannot distinguish between meaningful structure and possibly accidental corruption of the knowledge base.

Therefore, without a generative model of the data, the interpretation of the data may not be robust.

Systems ecology for instance provides a formal theory of morphological change 20. A hierarchical random graph is a succinct recipe for generating

in an effort to confront the observed data with sociological theory. In short, some descriptive statistics of the network are provided

We suggest that innovation researchers incorporate this new concept into their theories and case studies. 6. Interpretations from the philosophy and sociology of science The hierarchical random graph is one possible model of science, technology and innovation data.

and to compare these ideas with prevalent theories in the philosophy and sociology of science. The goal in doing this survey is neither to validate the use of the model,

All observations are conditioned on previous expectations and the formulation of prior theories. This perspective then, suggests that knowledge is a network of interlocked claims.

relating to previous theories as well as to physical objects. Second, this implies that it is the claim (and not a specific observation)

PICMET, 2007.20 S. P. Hubbell, The Unified Natural Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography, Princeton university Press, Princeton, 2001.21 A. Clauset, Hierarchical Random Graph, 2008, Accessed 25 august

and the utilization of selected assessments'results. 3. The Regional infrastructure foresight method In view of this specific problem constellation and based on the theoretical arguments introduced above,

and risk analysis studies a common theoretical ground. Both models organise the knowledge making in three dimensional space generating the knowledge from personal and proprietary to common sense and public,

This may, for example, concern integration of theories of networks or organisational culture in risk management more solidly.

Theory, Methods and Applications, Taylor & francis Group, London, 2009, ISBN 978-0-415-48513-5. 29 J. Paasi, P. Valkokari, P. Maijala

Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 will lead to a more organized bscience-likeq field with a theoretical basis. Not only are there many diverse techniques for theorizing,

are far from perfect and, outside of market beta theory, rarely used. Although some of the methods such as decision analysis, scenarios

portfolio theory, or decision trees have proven somewhat helpful in decision making in uncertainty, the field is still very primitive.

or any indicator system in that case, to have a sound theoretical and methodological basis 1,

For example, the Japanese futurist Yoneji Masuda and the American sociologist Daniel Bell have stated that the essential dimensions of a new society would be seen in the emerging service economy, the role of theoretical knowledge, and technology development.

The workshop in autumn 2008 is supposed to directly contribute to the theoretical and case study discussion for the translation of outcomes from the collective process into specific options for policy definition and implementation.

Some studies describe the theoretical benefit of scenarios, some drawing on general psychological understanding of human decision processes and biases

but our review did not provide the space. 3. 4. Differences between public and private sector applications Much of the literature on scenario theory

P. Sabatier (Ed.),Theories of the Policy Process, Westview Press, Boulder, CO.,1999, pp. 117 166.17 E. A. Parson, V. R. Burkett

Nothing can be known with certainty all previous foundations of theoretical knowledge have been shown to be unreliable History has no‘final causes,

and society 1212 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 4. Participants from the fields of ethics, theology, social theory

Metaphorical and theoretical descriptions of what are known as behavioural typologies abound in the literature: many are too complex to implement in the scale

what might unwisely be called a theory for Inclusive foresight. CSH offers a starting framework from which to begin to build a metaphor based on twelve categories of heuristics grouped into four categories of intention as shown in Fig. 2 (overleaf) 22.

and Arie Rip have termed pre-engagement through socio-technical scenario building 2. It involves the combination of exploration of dynamics using theoretical models

Co-evolutionary scenarios were developed as a theory-informed approach to capture the complexities of innovation journeys

theory and concepts Recent thinking about innovation adds up to a general idea that technology emergence is a process of innovation and selection shot through with anticipations (c. f. quasi-evolutionary

Evolutionary theories of technical changes emphasise that for innovation one should think of variation and selection (and retention of those selections.

Policy 11 (3)( 1982) 147 162.20 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of useful theory of innovation, Res.

It is acknowledged generally that the theoretical rationale for foresight exercises is supported by the perspective (or school) of evolutionary economics (Georghiou and Keenan 2006.

The resource-based theory of competitive advance: implications for strategy formulation. California Management Review 33, no. 3: 114 35.

Towards a theory of innovation and interactive learning. London: Pinter. March, J. G. 1988. Decisions and organizations. Oxford:

A dynamic theory of organizational knowledge creation. Organization science 5, no. 1: 14 37. Nonaka, I, . and H. Takeuchi. 1995.

However, in viewof the complexity and the ever-changing character of the object of policy which strongly applies in the case of innovation policy it is recognised now widely that there is neither a clear-cut recipe for nor an overarching theory of policy making (OECD 2005.

'The rather scarce literature on municipal visioning has been criticised for its lack of a consistent theory or method.

Theoretical background This paper is inspired by three research areas addressing foresight as a sociopolitical phenomenon around the millennial turn.

Scholars of organisation theories, however, have questioned the direct influence of scientific expectatiion and technological promises on strategic development of organisations (Sanz-Menéndez and Cabello 2000;

Thirdly, this discussion of stakeholder image construction in foresight is inspired by issues of reflexivity in social theory (Giddens 1991;

In the context of future orientation, reflexivity has evolved from an understanndin of human practice as described by Garfinkel (1967) via a social theory of modernity introduced by among others Giddens (1991) and Beck, Bonss,

Norwegian scholars of planning theory have argued that there is little use in trying to separate communication and power in planning processes:‘

The theory of reflexive modernisation: problematic, hypotheses and research programme. Theory, Culture & Society 20:1 33.

Berkhout, F, . and J. Hertin. 2002. Foresight futures scenarios: developing and applying a participative strategic planning tool.

Reflexivity and modesty in the application of complexity theory. In Interfaces between science and society, ed. A. Guimarães Pereira, S. Guedesvaz and S. Tognetti, 100 17.

Theory, Culture & Society 20, no. 2: 49 57. Latour, B. 2003. Is re-modernisation occurring and if so,

Theory, Culture & Society 20:35 48. Ling, T. 2002. Decision making in the public sector. In Scenarios in public policy, ed. G. Ringland, 124 31.

Theory, Culture, & Society 17:26 54. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 986 S. Jenssen Marcus, G. 1995.

is the practice based on sound theory. Environment and Planning A 34, no. 1: 7 22.

Governance as theory: five propositions. International Social science Journal 50, no. 155: 17 28. Stukas, A a,

theoretical approaches and educational initiatives. Journal of Social issues 58, no. 3: 411 27. Thomas, H. 1994.

Schoen et al. address recent developments in foresight theory and practice which lead them to deploy a hybrid methodological framework involving tailored approaches for specific purposes

and renewing theoretical underpinnings of the Futures field: a pressing and long-term challenge, Futures 41 (2009) 67 70.8 I. Miles, From futures to foresight, in:

The paper addresses recent developments in Foresight theory and practice which allow for deploying a hybrid methodological framework where different approaches serve different purposes in specific phases in order to tailor Foresight to a wide range of different contexts and objectives.

The paper can be characterised as empirically based theory building. The theoretical framework is elaborated by applying it in two R&i fields:(

Barre''s analytical perspective builds on various theoretical concepts: R&i systems, principal-agent and agency theories, strategic and distributed intelligence for innovation policy.

It proposes a functional description of National innovation systems along three interacting arenas of governance: -the arena of strategic orientation of research, borne by the political governmental authorities,

Towards a Theory of innovation and Interactive learning, Pinter, London, 2009.11 F. Malerba, L. Orsenigo, Technological regimes and sectoral patterns of innovative activities, Industrial and Corporate Change 6 (1

refining the co-evolutionary multilevel perspective, Technological forecasting and Social Change 72 (6)( 2005) 681 696.14 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of a useful theory of innovation

evolutionary theory, network analysis and postsocialism, Regional Studies 31 (5)( 1997) 533 544.36 G. C. Unruh, Understanding carbon lock in, Energy Policy 28 (12)( 2000

Policy 36 (6)( 2007) 813 831.49 A. Rip, H. te Kulve, Constructive technology assessment and Socio-Technical Scenarios, 2008.50 A. Rip, Folk theories of nanotechnologists, Science

or at least with the decision-makers that the exercise is intended to inform the scope of knowledge management (KM) has to extend 1 The application of evolutionary theory within theology has led to notions of an‘‘evolving god''(or gods) too,

An alternative approach the application of evolutionary theories to human faith, spirituality and religion is not necessarily incompatible with this.

''the need for experts to go well beyond the conclusions that can be supported substantively by research and even by well-grounded theory,

with discussion about the connections between ideas proving a good basis for exchanging information about implicit models and theories.

long-wave (Kondratieff)‘ theory,'Schumpeterian‘gales of creative destruction',Nelson and Winter's evolutionary economics and much else besides.

prioritise and address the social issues that matter most or the ones on which it can make the biggest impact. 5. 1. Research on corporate social responsibility The business case for CSR can be divided into theoretical and empirical categories 30

which aim to test empirically the relationships hypothesized in theoretical studies, or descriptive that are intended to examine how firms

society and corporate activity A central assumption behind innovation systems theory is that knowledge is the fundamental resource in the modern economy

25 E. Freeman, Stakeholder theory of the modern corporation, in: M. Hoffman, R. E. Frederick, M. S. Scwartz (Eds.

The idea is similar to the Black swan theory described by Taleb 10 in his book‘‘The Black swan''.

materials and food Democratisation of China Sunspot theory of climate change Privatisation criticised more China implodes due to several political conflicts Diverse opinions on environmental issues Geopolitics

therefore, explores selected elements of complexity theory and their implications for FTA techniques, and later derives implications for the application of foresight in policy-making.

for this paper we basically want to link theory to practical application. Therefore, a problem-oriented approach is required.

Although, from a theoretical perspective, it makes sense to state that any intervention may have catastrophic unforeseen consequences,

or theory that might be relevant for a particular phenomenon, and‘‘aleatory risks'',that arise from randomness inherent in the phenomena (though this randomness itself can be defined

The theoretical background as well as the examples given in this paper illustrate that both types of methods are needed in planning processes.

Complexity science approaches to the application foresight Averil Horton Abstract Purpose This paper aims to present an exploration of recent work in complexity theory to explain why

Design/methodology/approach The main method applied is combined critical thinking with a review of selected aspects of complexity theory

Originality/value Although neither complexity theory nor the concept of reframing is new in the area of foresight

Keywords Complexity, Disruptive events, Emergence, Reframing, Variation, Policy making, Complexity theory, Uncertainty management, Strategic planning Paper type Conceptual paper 1. Foresight techniques To date,

there has never been much underlying theory, or rationale, for either foresight or its techniques, Gheorghiou et al.

) As complexity theory itself has developed, Mitchell (2009), so has limited some work in the foresight field, Ringland (2010) and Miller and Poli (2010),

UK. be developed more generally to accommodate complexity theory and its specific implications for disruptive events. In addition, there has been published little work

Bringing together complexity theory, reframing and some critical thinking provides a way to understand how techniques can work better,

and most importantly lead to better decision-making and policy making (and perhaps contribute to use of theories of social change in foresight).

2. Complexity So what is complexity theory and what is its relevance to foresight? There are of course as many answers as people,

This paper will explore some selected elements of complexity theory and their implications for foresight techniques,

In summary the implications of complexity theory for foresight techniques are that they must: B Enable a vision of a system's emergent properties.

Complexity theory can provide a newer way of looking at change and shows why reframing becomes important.

and most theories of social change have implied an underlying pattern, although we are not always aware of it.

And while no theory explains everything, complexity potentially offers us the closest we have ever come to having an overall theory of social change.

In simple terms Reframing is: B changing the way you think; B changing the way you see things;

5. Conclusions Complexity theory can provide a different perspective on how and why future disruptive changes may happen in a system.

The Essential Guide to Complexity theory in Business and Management, Spiro Press, London. Bell, W. 2003), Foundations of Futures studies:

Byrne, D. 1998), Complexity theory and the Social sciences: An Introduction, Routledge, New york, NY. Gheorghiou, L.,Cassingena Harper, J.,Keenan, M. and Miles,

A recent current in backcasting theory and practices has been adding participatory elements in the backasting process.

References 1 D. Collingridge, The Social control of Technology, Pinter, London, 1980.2 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of useful theory of innovation, Research policy 6 (1

the results and insights that are gained by applying CTA tools in practice can be fed back into theories of technology dynamics.

along with the future of legal theory, the future of space law and the alternative futures of crime and prisons.

and technology (including biotechnology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, genetics and genomics, digital environments, ambient intelligence), data protection and privacy law, intellectual property, philosophy of law and legal theory.

and elaborating theoretical groundings, and what their potential and limitations Are downloaded in by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 Preparing for grand challenges 731 addressing Grand challenges.

theory of autopoietti and anticipatory systems, and cultural historical theories of cognitive development and social learning.

The paper is organised as follows. The next section introduces the two sources of unpredictabilitty epistemic uncertainty and ontological unpredictability.

and use some ideas from cultural historical theory to argue that modelling the directionality of the innovative élan requires analysis of progress at several time scales.

As soon as we have an explicit theory of human or social behaviour, it influences the way we think and live,

thus, in general, making the theory obsolete and prediction futile. In economics, Knight (1921) differentiated between two kinds of uncertainties.

In Bergson's theory of perception and cognition, the world presents itself to living beings in two essentially different forms.

This, indeed, is the only way we move from simple correlations to theoretical models. The modelling relation,

Rosen clarified the modelling relation in considerable theoretical and conceptual RIGOUR. His description, however, leaves somewhat open the question howwe come up with the natural systems in the first place.

On a theoretical level, the lack of predefined ontological blueprints means that weak signals cannot in any straightforwaar way be interpreted in a realist context,

when Nokia introduced the first SMS-capable phone. 4. Leont'ev's activity theory was based on Vygotsky's theories on cultural historical development (Luria and Vygotsky 1992).

Outline of the theory of structure. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. Goffman, E. 1959.

A process theory of the knowledge-based firm. Houndmills, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. Ogilvy, J. 2011.

Theory and practice of intelligent organizations. Helsinki: Metaxis. Tuomi, I. 2002. Networks of innovation: Change and meaning in the age of the Internet.

As an aside, these agreed metaphors are construed often as theory while a parallel search for a philosophical cum theoretical basis for FTA is pursued outside the cohort of practitioners.

None of these feature overtly in the evolution of FTA where every application makes assumptions about the underlying validity of the processes used.

by deferring to notions of philosophy and theory in a field where practical outcomes, based on learning;

For example, engineers often create a working artefact before its theoretical underpinning (science) is understood fully: that is simply an example of a known unknown in science.

Delphi Intensive interviewing Expert panels Futures scenarios Conceptual modelling Hermeneutics Critical Theory Introspective reflection Critical systems thinking Rational Existential Natural Artificial Figure 1

and theories used to explain them: this is the basis for most survey research interpretive perspective includes the context of the phenomenon as part of the object of study.

Interpretive FTA studies people rather than objects critical theory attempts to synthesise the positivist and interpretive perspectives

so today despite Lovelock's Gaia theory and extensive work on the notions of limits from different disciplines.

forecasting and technology assessment are construed often as theory. To search for a philosophical cum theoretical basis to underlie FTA seems to be limited of value.

Each FTA project makes assumptions about the underlyyin validity of the processes used: deferring to notions of philosophy

and theory seems inadvisable when practical outcomes, based on learning, thought and numeracy are what matter (M'Pherson 1974),

Uncertainty and quality in science for policy, theory and decision library, Series A: Philosophy and methodology of the social sciences.

In their review of theories and practices of foresight in Europe, Da Costa et al. 2008) list six,

Social theory and social structure. Newyork: Free Press. Nahuis, R, . and H. van Lente. 2008. Where are the politics.

An evolutionary theory of economic change. Cambridge, MA: Harvard university Press. Porter, A. 2004. Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods.

Teece 2007) and the organisation theory literature (Dill 1958; Thompson 1967) have emphasised long the role of the environment as a major source of uncertainty for strategic decision-makers in charge of coping with emerging opportunities and threats.

According to the organisation theory, the task environment has been defined initially to include the sectors of competitors, suppliers, customers, and regulatory bodies.

The strategic management theory expands the concept of task environment by defining the broader concept of business micro environment

and Siemens. 5 Given the inadequate analysis in the literature and the open-ended nature of our questions, we felt that this methodological approach would be the most useful for theory building (Eisenhardt and Graebner 2007;

Cross-case analysis and theory triangulation with different bodies of literatuur on environmental uncertainty, foresight,

Building theories from case studies research. Academy of Management Review 14, no. 4: 532 50. Eisenhardt, K. M,

Theory building from cases: Opportunities and challenges. Academy of Management Journal 50, no. 1: 25 32.

Towards a dynamic theory of strategy. Strategic management Journal 12 (S2), 95 117. Porter, M. E. 1997.

and connecting research-based theoretical knowledge with practical knowledge through applications. We explore the questions of systemic transformations in the context of Finnish RTO, namely VTT Technical research Centre of Finland,

The theoretical background for the above formulations stems from the notion that roadmapping can be considered both as a line of strategic thought

especially on organisational learning theories, network development, and impact evaluation. She has an MSC in Applied Geography from La Sapienza University of Rome.

Toward an activity theoretical reconceptualization. Journal of Education and Work 14, no. 1: 133 56.

Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory. Research policy 33, nos. 6 7: 897 920.

and problem-solving algoritthm such as TRIZ (the Theory of Inventive Problem solving; cf. Rantanen and Domb 2002) to help locate current capabilities along innovation pathways.

and investigate the relevance of their theoretical foundations to transferring foresight results into research policy making.

To what extent can the theoretical foundations described by Welp et al. 2006) for the four types of dialogues in their discussion be applied to strategic dialogues?

theories and tools'',Global Environmental change, Vol. 16, pp. 170-81. Corresponding author Frauke Lohr can be contacted at:

Findings The emergence of grand challenges within research and innovation policy discourse in Europe has refreshed key questions for foresight theory and practice.

The context and importance of competitive intelligence is based partly on the resource-based theory, which is one of the theories most integrated into current management thinking

and emphasizes the importance of a resource-based view of an organization (Powell and Bradford, 2000;

According to the resource-based theory, competitive advantage occurs only when there is a situation of resource heterogeneity and resource immobility (Barney, 1991.

In addition to the resource-based theory, the modern emphasis is on network approaches to industrial strategy

Grant, R. 1991),‘The resource-based theory of competitive advantage: implications for strategy formulation'',California Management Review, Vol. 33 No. 3, pp. 114-35.

a re-evaluation of research and theory'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 39, pp. 235-51.

forecasting and technology assessment and thus it is not a discipline with solid, widely accepted theoretical foundations.

We need further theoretical analyses and practical work to establish what FTA METHODS would be useful and feasible to facilitate co-ordination of tools/actions used in various policy domains,

8 H. Ritteland, M. Weber, Dilemmas in a general theory of planning, Policy Sci. 4 (1973) 155 169.9 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M

making us believe that the world is a much more predictable place than it really is. 4 With ontological unpredictability Tuomi refers to the theoretical incompatibility between innovation

it can hardly be reconciled on pure theoretical grounds. In the short term, efforts must be made to reduce the divide by promoting joint practice within actual FTA EXERCISES,

Cornell University, 1979.55 T. Lawson, Developments in economics as realist social theory, Rev. Soc. Econ. 405 (1996) 422.56 W. K. Olsen, Triangulation in social research:

Theory 18 (4)( 2008) 543 571. Karel Haegeman is a scientific officer at JRC-IPTS (European commission.

an empirical analysis, Rand J. Econ. 25 (1994) 319 333.26 T. H. Chang, A study on the Technique Development of RFID-Base on life-cycle theory, Ph d

Study on the technique development of TFT-LCD industry-based on patent analysis and life cycle theory, Ph d. dissertation, Chun Yuan Christian University, Taiwan, 2003.30 A l. Porter, J

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