Theory

Complexity theory (16)
Dynamic theory (4)
Evolutionary theory (9)
Theoretic (68)
Theory (181)
Theory building (3)
Theory of innovation (11)

Synopsis: Theory: Theory:

To us this linkage of theory and practice is really the essence of the paper:

and Pindyck 23 and Copeland and Antikarov 24 have prepared two very useful texts on real options theory. 13 See for instance the emphasis put on learning processes in protected spaces which is core to the approaches of Strategic

for instance in order to ensure coordination and cooperation between different actors and stakeholders. 22 An alternative, more theory-led,

Theory, Evidence and Policy, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2004.41 W. Polt, K. M. Weber, Forschung, Technologie und Innovation für Wohlstand in gesellschaftlicher Verantwortung.

Handbook of Quantitative Science and Technology research, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht (The netherlands), 2004.21 K. Blind, The Economics of Standards Theory, Evidence, Policy, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham

Studies in economic history, organizational dynamics and institution theory have given also rise to the notion of paths.

outline of the theory of structuration, Polity Press, Cambridge, 1984.41 D. K. R. Robinson, M. Ruivenkamp, A. Rip, Tracking the evolution of new and Emerging s&t via statement-linkages:

'The diversity of the above areas suggests that foresight process impacts should be interpreted through the lenses of epistemology, sociology, political science, management science and organisational theory.

Molina 28 studied networks and alignments in large-scale European projects using the‘socio-technical constituencies'12 approach of organisational behaviour theory.

A first attempt was made to study the specificities of the areas relating to networking and actor alignment, mainly based on organisational behaviour and governance theories.

Further work in this area will study other impact areas from the perspective of relevant theories

and several major inventions have preceded long the proper theories of their underpinning scientific principles, such as the steam engine, the first airplanes, semiconductors, etc.

Hierarchies are one form of technological structure confirmed by theories and practice. A hierarchy is one structure of many that have been used for technological integration 14.

interpretation, theory, robustness and also the production of actionable results. An unstructured network contains many parameters,

conforming to theories about the organization of science and technology. Without a theory of the data the technology analyst cannot distinguish between meaningful structure and possibly accidental corruption of the knowledge base.

Therefore, without a generative model of the data, the interpretation of the data may not be robust.

Systems ecology for instance provides a formal theory of morphological change 20. A hierarchical random graph is a succinct recipe for generating

in an effort to confront the observed data with sociological theory. In short, some descriptive statistics of the network are provided

We suggest that innovation researchers incorporate this new concept into their theories and case studies. 6. Interpretations from the philosophy and sociology of science The hierarchical random graph is one possible model of science, technology and innovation data.

and to compare these ideas with prevalent theories in the philosophy and sociology of science. The goal in doing this survey is neither to validate the use of the model,

All observations are conditioned on previous expectations and the formulation of prior theories. This perspective then, suggests that knowledge is a network of interlocked claims.

relating to previous theories as well as to physical objects. Second, this implies that it is the claim (and not a specific observation)

PICMET, 2007.20 S. P. Hubbell, The Unified Natural Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography, Princeton university Press, Princeton, 2001.21 A. Clauset, Hierarchical Random Graph, 2008, Accessed 25 august

This may, for example, concern integration of theories of networks or organisational culture in risk management more solidly.

Theory, Methods and Applications, Taylor & francis Group, London, 2009, ISBN 978-0-415-48513-5. 29 J. Paasi, P. Valkokari, P. Maijala

are far from perfect and, outside of market beta theory, rarely used. Although some of the methods such as decision analysis, scenarios

portfolio theory, or decision trees have proven somewhat helpful in decision making in uncertainty, the field is still very primitive.

but our review did not provide the space. 3. 4. Differences between public and private sector applications Much of the literature on scenario theory

P. Sabatier (Ed.),Theories of the Policy Process, Westview Press, Boulder, CO.,1999, pp. 117 166.17 E. A. Parson, V. R. Burkett

and society 1212 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 4. Participants from the fields of ethics, theology, social theory

what might unwisely be called a theory for Inclusive foresight. CSH offers a starting framework from which to begin to build a metaphor based on twelve categories of heuristics grouped into four categories of intention as shown in Fig. 2 (overleaf) 22.

Co-evolutionary scenarios were developed as a theory-informed approach to capture the complexities of innovation journeys

theory and concepts Recent thinking about innovation adds up to a general idea that technology emergence is a process of innovation and selection shot through with anticipations (c. f. quasi-evolutionary

The resource-based theory of competitive advance: implications for strategy formulation. California Management Review 33, no. 3: 114 35.

However, in viewof the complexity and the ever-changing character of the object of policy which strongly applies in the case of innovation policy it is recognised now widely that there is neither a clear-cut recipe for nor an overarching theory of policy making (OECD 2005.

'The rather scarce literature on municipal visioning has been criticised for its lack of a consistent theory or method.

Scholars of organisation theories, however, have questioned the direct influence of scientific expectatiion and technological promises on strategic development of organisations (Sanz-Menéndez and Cabello 2000;

Thirdly, this discussion of stakeholder image construction in foresight is inspired by issues of reflexivity in social theory (Giddens 1991;

In the context of future orientation, reflexivity has evolved from an understanndin of human practice as described by Garfinkel (1967) via a social theory of modernity introduced by among others Giddens (1991) and Beck, Bonss,

Norwegian scholars of planning theory have argued that there is little use in trying to separate communication and power in planning processes:‘

The theory of reflexive modernisation: problematic, hypotheses and research programme. Theory, Culture & Society 20:1 33.

Berkhout, F, . and J. Hertin. 2002. Foresight futures scenarios: developing and applying a participative strategic planning tool.

Theory, Culture & Society 20, no. 2: 49 57. Latour, B. 2003. Is re-modernisation occurring and if so,

Theory, Culture & Society 20:35 48. Ling, T. 2002. Decision making in the public sector. In Scenarios in public policy, ed. G. Ringland, 124 31.

Theory, Culture, & Society 17:26 54. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 986 S. Jenssen Marcus, G. 1995.

is the practice based on sound theory. Environment and Planning A 34, no. 1: 7 22.

Governance as theory: five propositions. International Social science Journal 50, no. 155: 17 28. Stukas, A a,

Schoen et al. address recent developments in foresight theory and practice which lead them to deploy a hybrid methodological framework involving tailored approaches for specific purposes

The paper addresses recent developments in Foresight theory and practice which allow for deploying a hybrid methodological framework where different approaches serve different purposes in specific phases in order to tailor Foresight to a wide range of different contexts and objectives.

R&i systems, principal-agent and agency theories, strategic and distributed intelligence for innovation policy. It proposes a functional description of National innovation systems along three interacting arenas of governance:

Policy 36 (6)( 2007) 813 831.49 A. Rip, H. te Kulve, Constructive technology assessment and Socio-Technical Scenarios, 2008.50 A. Rip, Folk theories of nanotechnologists, Science

''the need for experts to go well beyond the conclusions that can be supported substantively by research and even by well-grounded theory,

with discussion about the connections between ideas proving a good basis for exchanging information about implicit models and theories.

long-wave (Kondratieff)‘ theory,'Schumpeterian‘gales of creative destruction',Nelson and Winter's evolutionary economics and much else besides.

society and corporate activity A central assumption behind innovation systems theory is that knowledge is the fundamental resource in the modern economy

25 E. Freeman, Stakeholder theory of the modern corporation, in: M. Hoffman, R. E. Frederick, M. S. Scwartz (Eds.

The idea is similar to the Black swan theory described by Taleb 10 in his book‘‘The Black swan''.

materials and food Democratisation of China Sunspot theory of climate change Privatisation criticised more China implodes due to several political conflicts Diverse opinions on environmental issues Geopolitics

for this paper we basically want to link theory to practical application. Therefore, a problem-oriented approach is required.

or theory that might be relevant for a particular phenomenon, and‘‘aleatory risks'',that arise from randomness inherent in the phenomena (though this randomness itself can be defined

there has never been much underlying theory, or rationale, for either foresight or its techniques, Gheorghiou et al.

and most importantly lead to better decision-making and policy making (and perhaps contribute to use of theories of social change in foresight).

and most theories of social change have implied an underlying pattern, although we are not always aware of it.

And while no theory explains everything, complexity potentially offers us the closest we have ever come to having an overall theory of social change.

In simple terms Reframing is: B changing the way you think; B changing the way you see things;

A recent current in backcasting theory and practices has been adding participatory elements in the backasting process.

the results and insights that are gained by applying CTA tools in practice can be fed back into theories of technology dynamics.

along with the future of legal theory, the future of space law and the alternative futures of crime and prisons.

and technology (including biotechnology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, genetics and genomics, digital environments, ambient intelligence), data protection and privacy law, intellectual property, philosophy of law and legal theory.

theory of autopoietti and anticipatory systems, and cultural historical theories of cognitive development and social learning.

The paper is organised as follows. The next section introduces the two sources of unpredictabilitty epistemic uncertainty and ontological unpredictability.

and use some ideas from cultural historical theory to argue that modelling the directionality of the innovative élan requires analysis of progress at several time scales.

As soon as we have an explicit theory of human or social behaviour, it influences the way we think and live,

thus, in general, making the theory obsolete and prediction futile. In economics, Knight (1921) differentiated between two kinds of uncertainties.

In Bergson's theory of perception and cognition, the world presents itself to living beings in two essentially different forms.

when Nokia introduced the first SMS-capable phone. 4. Leont'ev's activity theory was based on Vygotsky's theories on cultural historical development (Luria and Vygotsky 1992).

Outline of the theory of structure. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. Goffman, E. 1959.

A process theory of the knowledge-based firm. Houndmills, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. Ogilvy, J. 2011.

Theory and practice of intelligent organizations. Helsinki: Metaxis. Tuomi, I. 2002. Networks of innovation: Change and meaning in the age of the Internet.

As an aside, these agreed metaphors are construed often as theory while a parallel search for a philosophical cum theoretical basis for FTA is pursued outside the cohort of practitioners.

by deferring to notions of philosophy and theory in a field where practical outcomes, based on learning;

Delphi Intensive interviewing Expert panels Futures scenarios Conceptual modelling Hermeneutics Critical Theory Introspective reflection Critical systems thinking Rational Existential Natural Artificial Figure 1

and theories used to explain them: this is the basis for most survey research interpretive perspective includes the context of the phenomenon as part of the object of study.

Interpretive FTA studies people rather than objects critical theory attempts to synthesise the positivist and interpretive perspectives

so today despite Lovelock's Gaia theory and extensive work on the notions of limits from different disciplines.

forecasting and technology assessment are construed often as theory. To search for a philosophical cum theoretical basis to underlie FTA seems to be limited of value.

and theory seems inadvisable when practical outcomes, based on learning, thought and numeracy are what matter (M'Pherson 1974),

Uncertainty and quality in science for policy, theory and decision library, Series A: Philosophy and methodology of the social sciences.

In their review of theories and practices of foresight in Europe, Da Costa et al. 2008) list six,

Social theory and social structure. Newyork: Free Press. Nahuis, R, . and H. van Lente. 2008. Where are the politics.

Teece 2007) and the organisation theory literature (Dill 1958; Thompson 1967) have emphasised long the role of the environment as a major source of uncertainty for strategic decision-makers in charge of coping with emerging opportunities and threats.

According to the organisation theory, the task environment has been defined initially to include the sectors of competitors, suppliers, customers, and regulatory bodies.

The strategic management theory expands the concept of task environment by defining the broader concept of business micro environment

Cross-case analysis and theory triangulation with different bodies of literatuur on environmental uncertainty, foresight,

Building theories from case studies research. Academy of Management Review 14, no. 4: 532 50. Eisenhardt, K. M,

especially on organisational learning theories, network development, and impact evaluation. She has an MSC in Applied Geography from La Sapienza University of Rome.

Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory. Research policy 33, nos. 6 7: 897 920.

and problem-solving algoritthm such as TRIZ (the Theory of Inventive Problem solving; cf. Rantanen and Domb 2002) to help locate current capabilities along innovation pathways.

theories and tools'',Global Environmental change, Vol. 16, pp. 170-81. Corresponding author Frauke Lohr can be contacted at:

Findings The emergence of grand challenges within research and innovation policy discourse in Europe has refreshed key questions for foresight theory and practice.

The context and importance of competitive intelligence is based partly on the resource-based theory, which is one of the theories most integrated into current management thinking

and emphasizes the importance of a resource-based view of an organization (Powell and Bradford, 2000;

According to the resource-based theory, competitive advantage occurs only when there is a situation of resource heterogeneity and resource immobility (Barney, 1991.

In addition to the resource-based theory, the modern emphasis is on network approaches to industrial strategy

Grant, R. 1991),‘The resource-based theory of competitive advantage: implications for strategy formulation'',California Management Review, Vol. 33 No. 3, pp. 114-35.

a re-evaluation of research and theory'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 39, pp. 235-51.

8 H. Ritteland, M. Weber, Dilemmas in a general theory of planning, Policy Sci. 4 (1973) 155 169.9 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M

Cornell University, 1979.55 T. Lawson, Developments in economics as realist social theory, Rev. Soc. Econ. 405 (1996) 422.56 W. K. Olsen, Triangulation in social research:

Theory 18 (4)( 2008) 543 571. Karel Haegeman is a scientific officer at JRC-IPTS (European commission.

an empirical analysis, Rand J. Econ. 25 (1994) 319 333.26 T. H. Chang, A study on the Technique Development of RFID-Base on life-cycle theory, Ph d

Study on the technique development of TFT-LCD industry-based on patent analysis and life cycle theory, Ph d. dissertation, Chun Yuan Christian University, Taiwan, 2003.30 A l. Porter, J

in comparison with the relatively vast literature found in verbal theories of techno-cultural evolution,

Formalization of evolutionary thinking in biology in algorithmic terms began in 1930 when R. A. Fisher 6 published his opus bthe Genetical Theory of Natural selection,

and Selection In relation to Sex) has devised a theory that was more applicable to cultural traits than to genetics (foreign to his thinking).

some modern approaches from complex systems theory, like self-organization, is an alternative to dbiological analogiest or Darwinism;

and it is a universal theory in which specific theories must be nested. However Darwinism does not provide a complete explanation of socioeconomic phenomena;

something more is required. As I already pointed out before, the social cannot be reduced to the biological,

or selection theory, claiming ultimately that all innovative design is produced by one or another variation-plus-selection-plus-transmission process,

after a lapse of almost a half century after the initial thrust commented on in point 1. Basically he suggested that Darwinism contained a general theory of the evolution of all complex systems,

some promising approaches As already mentioned there is a relatively vast literature in verbal theories of technological and cultural evolution,

It is a numerical simulation method for the search of complex technology spaces based on percolation theory,

Synergy in Evolution and the Fate of Humankind, Cambridge university Press, 2003.6 R. A. Fisher, The Genetical Theory of Natural selection, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1930.7 A. Sigmund, J. Hofbauer

it showed that theory was‘a far more effective means than observation for precisely characterizing complex orbital motions physical theory gained primacy over observation for purposes of answering specific questions about the world'3. Over the course of the eighteenth century,

Newtonian mechanics was interpreted by Laplace as a clockwork universe after the success of the theory of gravity in accounting for complex deviations from Keplerian motion became fully evident 2,

We use the word practice to describe the implementation or execution of a concept, plan, methodology or theory.

Most practice is based on a set of theories or assumptions. Sometimes those theories are explicit,

most often they are implicit. The connection between practice and theory (unlike that between theory and practice) has traditionally been ignored, to the detriment of both 26.

Reflexive inquiry draws on a social constructionist view of the world and provides a powerful approach that offers insights for academics

Instead of framing practice based on theory, future scenario practice is deconstructed into seven groups. These seven groups are linked further to the most characteristic theoretical premises

To strengthen the enablers for innovation within the scenario process, the link between practice and theory,

theory research suggestions and hypotheses, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 72 (2005) 59 73.8 A. Wilkinson, E. Eidinow, Evolving practices in environmental scenarios:

Practice in search of theory? This Special issue, like many compendia arising out of a professional conference, offers a sample of the state of the art at a particular point in time.

design and innovation management while others mainly draw on empirical analysis and established FTA theory. The two papers that most clearly take a contextual improvement perspective (a) are the one by Dannemand Andersen and Baungaard Rasmussen and the one by Rijkens-Klomp and van der Duin.

Like De Moor et al. this paper uses established Foresight theories applied to selected cases that provide evidence in support of their hypotheses.

an ability to see the different strands of theory and practice that made up the 2011 FTA conversation in the light of subsequent developments.

''Despite persistent calls to build‘‘the community''there were equally insistent worries that the failure to articulate shared agendas reflected deeper underlying differences in both theory and practice.

Or was FTA revealing the incompatibility of the theory and practice of efforts that deal with closed versus open challenges?

Insufficient theory also makes it harder to explain what might appear, at first glance, to be confused and fragmented perspectives across the field.

offer some clues both negative and positive regarding the ways to build shared discourses that cover theory and practice.

perhaps more importantly, provide the foundations for systematic design criteria the case tested theories that allow tools to be tailored to tasks.

across far-flung and diverse communities, about the theory and practice of using the future. There is no assurance that this particular conversation will fully address the lack of a shared sense-making framework made evident by the FTA PROCESSES

A Theory of Action Perspective, Addison-Wesley US, Reading, MA, 1978.17 T. C. Garrett, D. H. Buisson, C. M. Yap, National culture

less attention has been paid to the theory and Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

glocalization/grobalization and something/nothing, Sociological Theory 21 (3)( 2003) 193 209.22 M. Weber, Foresight and adaptive planning as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making:

now Technology Assesment Theory and Practice. Member of the group advising the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the Joint research Centre (IPTS, now European commission, Directorate-General Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies) on the production of the IPTS Report.

Through a better introduction of the future based on Foresight theory and practice and through an integration of methods and approaches from other fields, including user/market research

It seeks to understand the complex interactions between products, services, users and other stakeholders in multiple, realistic contexts, building on Foresight theory and practice, traditional user research,

It represents an approach for bringing the future into inclusive innovation processes in a more systematic and comprehensive way, based on Foresight theory and practice and through integrating methods and tools from Foresight, traditional user/market research and human-centred

A Theory of Action Perspective, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Massachusetts, 1978.35 G. Schreiber, H. Akkermans, A. Anjewierden, R. Hoog, N. Shadbolt, W. De Velde

and new theories, models and solutions 42. Case study research is recommended therefore for exploratory qualitative research characterized by scant previous knowledge 43 45.

Towards a theory of open innovation: three core process archetypes, in: R&d Management Conference (RADMA), Lisboan, Portugal, 2004.41 C. Jasner, Walk of pain, Mckinsey Wissen 17 (2006) 44 49.42 W. G. Dyer

, A l. Wilkins, Better stories, not better constructs, to generate better theory a rejoinder to Eisenhardt, Academy of Management Review 16 (1991) 613 619.43 R. K. Yin

, New york, 2011.45 K. M. Eisenhardt, Building theories from case study research, Academy of Management Review 14 (1989) 532 550.46 R. E. Herriott, W

Table 1. Future-oriented technology analysis methods (Scapolo and Porter, 2008) Families of methods Sample methods Creativity approaches Theory of Inventive Problem solving (TRIZ), future workshops, visioning Monitoring and intelligence

) This theory of‘technological determinism'fits into the‘diffusion of innovations'framework (Rogers, 1995), which is dedicated to the adoption and diffusion of new technologies in society.

In the theory of diffusionism, the first group of people who adopt the new technology (innovators

User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 53 of the diffusion theory has to do with its proinnovvatio bias and the assumed linearity of the innovaatio and adoption process.

and which point to the deviation of adoption curves from Rogers'theory. One of them is the social shaping of technology framework,

they have been criticized for their rather linear social determiinism Other theories have a less linear view:

such as the issue of the continuous involvement of users and the discrepancy between theory and practice in this respeect Although the user-driven innovation paradigm advocates an open perspective

4 5) attribute this discrepancy betwwee theory and practice mainly to the lack of empirical evidence on the benefits of userinvollvemen and user-oriented strategies compared to traditional research and development.

it was shown also that in some cases there is still a discrepancy between theory and practiice Although in theory many projects start from a user-and pull-driven perspective,

a review of research and theory. Research policy, 29 (4/5), 627 655. Busom, I 2000.

3. The value of out-of-the-box thinking in a foresight exercise The concept of out-of-the-box thinking adopted in this paper is related to learning organization theory (Tosey 2005.

From Theory to Practice, Brasilia, Brazil, 16 7 december 2010. Horton, A. 1999)‘ Forefront: a simple guide to successful foresigght'Foresight:

From Theory to Practice, Brasilia, Brazil, 16 7 december 2010. Jouvenel, B. 1967) The Art of Conjecture.

or stakeholder theory, in which business organisations increasingly promote innovation in their social and environmental policies (Smith 2000).

Theories and Practises, pp. 17 40. Berlin: Springer. Barre',R. and Keenan, M. 2008)‘ Revisiting foresight rationalles What lessons from the social sciences and humanities?'.

Freeman, E. 1970)‘ Stakeholder theory of the modern corporatiion'In: Hoffman, M.,Frederick, R. E. and Schwartz, M. S. eds) Business Ethics Readings and Cases in Corporate Morality, 4th edn.

Rittel, H. and Weber, M. 1973)‘ Dilemmas in a general theory of planning',Policy Sciences, 4: 155 69.

2009) derive four modes of governance from argumeent that build on cultural theory (Tukker and Butter Figure 1. Identified types of transformations.

Dervin, B. 1998)‘ Sense-making theory and practice: An overview of user interests in knowledge seeking and use',Journal of Knowledge management, 2: 36 46.

Thompson, M.,Ellis, R. and Wildavsky, A. 1990) Cultural Theory. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. Tiits, M. and Kalvet, T. 2011)‘ Foresight as an innovation policy tool in smaller catching-up economies:

Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory',Research policy, 33: 897 920..(2005)‘ Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations:

Smits, R.,Kuhlmann, S. and Shapira, P.,eds,(2010) The Theory and Practice of Innovation policy:

and may be obtained from research papers, laboratory results, dissemination about new theories, experiments, prototypes etc. Automated text-mining tools as well as databases that allow for tagging

Theory and Practice'.'London: Routledge. Choo, C. W. 2001)‘ Environmental scanning as information seeking and organizational learning',Information Research, 7/1<http://choo. fis. utoronto. ca/IR/choo choo

Dervin, B. 1998)‘ Sense-making theory and practice: An overview of user interests in knowledge seeking and use',Journal of Knowledge management, 2: 36 46.

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