what may be the clue to understand the modus operandi of devolutiont per se the development of evolutionary algorithms for many different problem-solving and/or theoretical applications.
making six fundamental theoretical considerations that were accounted not yet for in formal models and/or simulations of technological systems stand out.
mainly focusing some of the lessons learned from evolutionary theory involved in anticipating changes in evolutionary trajectories,
in comparison with the relatively vast literature found in verbal theories of techno-cultural evolution,
with the convergence of different fields of science toward what may be the clue to understand the modus operandi of devolutiont per se the development of evolutionary algorithms for many different problem-solving and/or theoretical applications.
Formalization of evolutionary thinking in biology in algorithmic terms began in 1930 when R. A. Fisher 6 published his opus bthe Genetical Theory of Natural selection,
and Selection In relation to Sex) has devised a theory that was more applicable to cultural traits than to genetics (foreign to his thinking).
some modern approaches from complex systems theory, like self-organization, is an alternative to dbiological analogiest or Darwinism;
and it is a universal theory in which specific theories must be nested. However Darwinism does not provide a complete explanation of socioeconomic phenomena;
something more is required. As I already pointed out before, the social cannot be reduced to the biological,
or selection theory, claiming ultimately that all innovative design is produced by one or another variation-plus-selection-plus-transmission process,
after a lapse of almost a half century after the initial thrust commented on in point 1. Basically he suggested that Darwinism contained a general theory of the evolution of all complex systems,
some promising approaches As already mentioned there is a relatively vast literature in verbal theories of technological and cultural evolution,
It is a numerical simulation method for the search of complex technology spaces based on percolation theory,
which should be more empirical than theoretical in scope. This scientific meeting could be planned following the format of A t. C. Devezas/Technological forecasting
lessons from evolutionary theory, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 62 (1999) 51 62.4 T. L. Brown, Making Truth:
Synergy in Evolution and the Fate of Humankind, Cambridge university Press, 2003.6 R. A. Fisher, The Genetical Theory of Natural selection, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1930.7 A. Sigmund, J. Hofbauer
, An Evolutionary theory of Economic Change, Beknap of Harvard university Press, Boston, 1982.17 G. Baslalla, The Evolution of Technology, Cambridge university Press, 1988.18 H. Sachsse, Anthropologie der Technik
it showed that theory was‘a far more effective means than observation for precisely characterizing complex orbital motions physical theory gained primacy over observation for purposes of answering specific questions about the world'3. Over the course of the eighteenth century,
Newtonian mechanics was interpreted by Laplace as a clockwork universe after the success of the theory of gravity in accounting for complex deviations from Keplerian motion became fully evident 2,
and underlying theoretical premises 7. While the scenario literature makes explicit the methodological differences and similarities of various approaches,
learning from experience and better articulating our underlying theoretical premises. The outcomes of this inquiry are presented in Section 4 including also implications for practitioners by elaborating elements of good practices and areas of improvement.
We use the word practice to describe the implementation or execution of a concept, plan, methodology or theory.
Most practice is based on a set of theories or assumptions. Sometimes those theories are explicit,
most often they are implicit. The connection between practice and theory (unlike that between theory and practice) has traditionally been ignored, to the detriment of both 26.
Reflexive inquiry draws on a social constructionist view of the world and provides a powerful approach that offers insights for academics
and adapting our underlying theoretical premises. 3. Concepts of innovation, futures thinking and scenarios 3. 1. Innovation systems Innovation involves the application of new ideas
Contextual features will include, among other things, the morphology or physiology of the domain, the purpose and theoretical premises of the study,
Instead of framing practice based on theory, future scenario practice is deconstructed into seven groups. These seven groups are linked further to the most characteristic theoretical premises
here expressed as modes of futures thinking. For example, we argue that a strong focus on developing scenarios
For these two groups, the scenario cases have been analyzed to disclose elements of theoretical premises. In the first group, we found that the scenarios are used for supporting strategic discussions about futures that are shaped by surprise and confrontation.
as articulations of theoretical premises, can be distinguished in future scenario practice. In addition, we abstracted different dominant modes of futures thinking linked within different groups.
To strengthen the enablers for innovation within the scenario process, the link between practice and theory,
'Hence, the benefits from combining techniques for each of the groups become also clear from a theoretical point of view
theory research suggestions and hypotheses, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 72 (2005) 59 73.8 A. Wilkinson, E. Eidinow, Evolving practices in environmental scenarios:
Towards a Theory of innovation and Interactive learning, Pinter, London, 1992.35 R. Nelson, S. Winter, In search of a useful theory of innovation, Res.
Practice in search of theory? This Special issue, like many compendia arising out of a professional conference, offers a sample of the state of the art at a particular point in time.
design and innovation management while others mainly draw on empirical analysis and established FTA theory. The two papers that most clearly take a contextual improvement perspective (a) are the one by Dannemand Andersen and Baungaard Rasmussen and the one by Rijkens-Klomp and van der Duin.
Like De Moor et al. this paper uses established Foresight theories applied to selected cases that provide evidence in support of their hypotheses.
Their arguments and analyses bring together theoretical concepts from innovation studies, innovation management and foresight. They use an analytical framework that they call the‘‘Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM)''to make the case for the convergent development of innovation
an ability to see the different strands of theory and practice that made up the 2011 FTA conversation in the light of subsequent developments.
Starting with the very first FTA conferences, participants have signalled their concern that an excessive disparity of interests, theoretical starting points,
''Despite persistent calls to build‘‘the community''there were equally insistent worries that the failure to articulate shared agendas reflected deeper underlying differences in both theory and practice.
Or was FTA revealing the incompatibility of the theory and practice of efforts that deal with closed versus open challenges?
Admirable as such responsiveness may be it has often left theoretical reflections and debates lagging behind. This, in turn, makes it more difficult to ensure that the design
Insufficient theory also makes it harder to explain what might appear, at first glance, to be confused and fragmented perspectives across the field.
offer some clues both negative and positive regarding the ways to build shared discourses that cover theory and practice.
Indeed it is this paradoxical‘‘short-termism''of FTA its capacity to meet pressing needs that may be most symptomatic of a context that is rich not only on the practical side but also the theoretical.
We are aware that research on the theoretical foundations of FTA poses challenges which are not only of academic nature.
perhaps more importantly, provide the foundations for systematic design criteria the case tested theories that allow tools to be tailored to tasks.
across far-flung and diverse communities, about the theory and practice of using the future. There is no assurance that this particular conversation will fully address the lack of a shared sense-making framework made evident by the FTA PROCESSES
A Theory of Action Perspective, Addison-Wesley US, Reading, MA, 1978.17 T. C. Garrett, D. H. Buisson, C. M. Yap, National culture
whether these theoretical assumptions correspond to the experiences of policy-makers in their everyday practice. According to a recent study by the European Environmental Agency 6, there is insufficient empirical evidence of the added value of scenario analysis in general,
by introducing the theoretical background of the method and/or by delivering content for the foresight analysis. One of the lessons learnt with respect to external assistance was that,
less attention has been paid to the theory and Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
glocalization/grobalization and something/nothing, Sociological Theory 21 (3)( 2003) 193 209.22 M. Weber, Foresight and adaptive planning as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making:
Nonetheless, there was a push to extend concepts and theoretical insights from these areas to a larger variety of social sciences and humanities disciplines, such as epistemology, political science, sociology, economics
now Technology Assesment Theory and Practice. Member of the group advising the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the Joint research Centre (IPTS, now European commission, Directorate-General Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies) on the production of the IPTS Report.
Through a better introduction of the future based on Foresight theory and practice and through an integration of methods and approaches from other fields, including user/market research
It seeks to understand the complex interactions between products, services, users and other stakeholders in multiple, realistic contexts, building on Foresight theory and practice, traditional user research,
It represents an approach for bringing the future into inclusive innovation processes in a more systematic and comprehensive way, based on Foresight theory and practice and through integrating methods and tools from Foresight, traditional user/market research and human-centred
A Theory of Action Perspective, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Massachusetts, 1978.35 G. Schreiber, H. Akkermans, A. Anjewierden, R. Hoog, N. Shadbolt, W. De Velde
and new theories, models and solutions 42. Case study research is recommended therefore for exploratory qualitative research characterized by scant previous knowledge 43 45.
first two cases already allow for literal or theoretical replication and thus more robust conclusions 46.
Towards a theory of open innovation: three core process archetypes, in: R&d Management Conference (RADMA), Lisboan, Portugal, 2004.41 C. Jasner, Walk of pain, Mckinsey Wissen 17 (2006) 44 49.42 W. G. Dyer
, A l. Wilkins, Better stories, not better constructs, to generate better theory a rejoinder to Eisenhardt, Academy of Management Review 16 (1991) 613 619.43 R. K. Yin
, New york, 2011.45 K. M. Eisenhardt, Building theories from case study research, Academy of Management Review 14 (1989) 532 550.46 R. E. Herriott, W
Table 1. Future-oriented technology analysis methods (Scapolo and Porter, 2008) Families of methods Sample methods Creativity approaches Theory of Inventive Problem solving (TRIZ), future workshops, visioning Monitoring and intelligence
first, we expand on a number of theoretical perspectives on technoloog and society and the notion of user-driven innovattion We then explore the implications for traditional innovation and development processes.
Theoretical perspectives Interplay between technological and societal forces The relationship between technology and society has already been studied from various perspectives.
and which propagates the industry's‘push'perspectiive has dominated the theoretical debate for several decades.
) This theory of‘technological determinism'fits into the‘diffusion of innovations'framework (Rogers, 1995), which is dedicated to the adoption and diffusion of new technologies in society.
In the theory of diffusionism, the first group of people who adopt the new technology (innovators
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 53 of the diffusion theory has to do with its proinnovvatio bias and the assumed linearity of the innovaatio and adoption process.
and which point to the deviation of adoption curves from Rogers'theory. One of them is the social shaping of technology framework,
they have been criticized for their rather linear social determiinism Other theories have a less linear view:
They provide us with a theoretical basis for uniting the technology-centred with the user-or human-centred vision,
such as the issue of the continuous involvement of users and the discrepancy between theory and practice in this respeect Although the user-driven innovation paradigm advocates an open perspective
4 5) attribute this discrepancy betwwee theory and practice mainly to the lack of empirical evidence on the benefits of userinvollvemen and user-oriented strategies compared to traditional research and development.
it was shown also that in some cases there is still a discrepancy between theory and practiice Although in theory many projects start from a user-and pull-driven perspective,
a review of research and theory. Research policy, 29 (4/5), 627 655. Busom, I 2000.
3. The value of out-of-the-box thinking in a foresight exercise The concept of out-of-the-box thinking adopted in this paper is related to learning organization theory (Tosey 2005.
From Theory to Practice, Brasilia, Brazil, 16 7 december 2010. Horton, A. 1999)‘ Forefront: a simple guide to successful foresigght'Foresight:
From Theory to Practice, Brasilia, Brazil, 16 7 december 2010. Jouvenel, B. 1967) The Art of Conjecture.
and the configuration of the innovation systems The conception of the configuration of the three innovattio systems is established on the theoretical foundations of different system approaches.
Towards a Theory of innovation and Interaction. London: Pinter. LY. 2000), Civil service Act. Legislative Yuan<http://law. moj. gov. tw/Lawclass/Lawall. aspx?
or stakeholder theory, in which business organisations increasingly promote innovation in their social and environmental policies (Smith 2000).
Theories and Practises, pp. 17 40. Berlin: Springer. Barre',R. and Keenan, M. 2008)‘ Revisiting foresight rationalles What lessons from the social sciences and humanities?'.
Freeman, E. 1970)‘ Stakeholder theory of the modern corporatiion'In: Hoffman, M.,Frederick, R. E. and Schwartz, M. S. eds) Business Ethics Readings and Cases in Corporate Morality, 4th edn.
Rittel, H. and Weber, M. 1973)‘ Dilemmas in a general theory of planning',Policy Sciences, 4: 155 69.
2009) derive four modes of governance from argumeent that build on cultural theory (Tukker and Butter Figure 1. Identified types of transformations.
reflecting the theoretical premises of prevailing foresight practice with its emphasis on systemic aspects and networkking Papers with a strong emphasis on the innovation system, tend to also address other dimensions and their interplay with the coordination mode.
Dervin, B. 1998)‘ Sense-making theory and practice: An overview of user interests in knowledge seeking and use',Journal of Knowledge management, 2: 36 46.
Thompson, M.,Ellis, R. and Wildavsky, A. 1990) Cultural Theory. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. Tiits, M. and Kalvet, T. 2011)‘ Foresight as an innovation policy tool in smaller catching-up economies:
the balance of disciplinary and interdisciplinary courses and the importance of theoretical and applied experience could all evolve.
Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory',Research policy, 33: 897 920..(2005)‘ Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations:
Smits, R.,Kuhlmann, S. and Shapira, P.,eds,(2010) The Theory and Practice of Innovation policy:
Towards a Theory of innovation and Interactive learning. London: Pinter. Matrix-Rambøll. 2009)‘ Evaluation and impact assessment of the ERA NET scheme and the related ERA NET actions under the 6th Framework programme Volume 1:
Nonaka, I. 1994)‘ A dynamic theory of organizational knowleedg creation',Organization science, 5: 14 37. OECD. 2003)‘ Policy coherence',Public Governance and Territorial Development Directorate, GOV/PUMA (2003) 4. Paris:
and may be obtained from research papers, laboratory results, dissemination about new theories, experiments, prototypes etc. Automated text-mining tools as well as databases that allow for tagging
Theory and Practice'.'London: Routledge. Choo, C. W. 2001)‘ Environmental scanning as information seeking and organizational learning',Information Research, 7/1<http://choo. fis. utoronto. ca/IR/choo choo
Dervin, B. 1998)‘ Sense-making theory and practice: An overview of user interests in knowledge seeking and use',Journal of Knowledge management, 2: 36 46.
Nonaka, I. 1994)‘ A dynamic theory of organizational knowleedg creation',Organization science, 5: 14 37. OECD. 2008) OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030.
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