| Desirability (22) |  |
| Desirable (60) | |
| Desire (68) | |
| Desirability (22) | |
| Desirable (60) | |
| Desire (68) | |
when aiming at seemingly desirable scenarios? It is known commonly that socio-technical change is tied to a wide range of uncertainties
when possibilities are sought to move the basic scenario in a more desirable direction. Adaptive options are
which allowed the Researchers to submit as many issues as they desired. For the purpose of information management, Researchers were asked to indicate which research area
and chances, discuss desirable and undesirable futures, prospect the potential impacts of current research, technology and regulatory policy, focus selectively on economic, technological,
one can attempt to modulate/steer dynamics towards the more desirable actor arrangements and entanglements. 2. 2. The models of path used in this project For this project we draw on the notion of socio-technical path in its two forms:
Thus a form of co-option would be desired the goal to take the step of integration together
p. 1. In brief, visions should highlight the role of policy in realising the desired and feasible future. 25 Note that the national
exchanging these sorts of experience among the concerned actors is desirable, as are promoting strategic dialogues among the stakeholders,
A Monte carlo simulation provides a systematic search process which guarantees several desirable properties. The procedure can start with any proposed network
While a mix of node types might be desirable (for instance technology as well as process), it may be difficult to establish a uniform definition of the technological components of the network.
Repeated trials and a more complete analysis based on an evolving network are desirable items for future research.
A meta-analysis of 80 scenario processes in the U s. found that these processes were started with a clear idea of the desired results
and rank each option on an ordinal scale ranging from well suited to not desirable.
because they have a high social desirability and entail little conflict. Those in the lower left corner tend to be discarded
we chose again the social desirability of each option, measured by the average of the stakeholders'ratings.
Points to the left of the diagonal indicate potential sustainability deficits as the option is more desirable from the average stakeholder groups'perspective than from a balanced sustainability perspective.
and communicate to those that did not Fig. 2. Desirability conflict diagram. 1155 E. Störmer et al./
The desirability conflict diagram resulting from these assessments is presented in Fig. 4. The general picture shows that all three options are characterized by extensive polygons
In the high quality of life and the powerful region scenario, both groups ranked the solution as rather problematic or not desirable.
This was aligned in line with the assumption that this option would lead to high efficiency in operational terms due to a professionally organized central corporation Fig. 4. Desirability conflict diagram for the three options in the Kiesental case study. 1158
but reached high desirability and consensus in the RIF process. The other case study was run in a suburb of the city of Zurich with a high pressure of settlement growth
evaluate their desirability, importance and acceptability, and consider the risks involved. The context, emphasis and time horizons of examination vary, however.
the increasingly complex world creates new types of risks that shouldn't be bypassed with the examination of future opportunities, creation of shared visions and assessment of desired impacts.
and choosing the policy that brings the model outcome closest to the desired outcome. But if the model and the real system are in a chaotic state,
Implementing change and guiding desired actions through the decision-making chain requires sound analysis based on quantifiable data that is presented in an understandable format.
Different potential structures emerge according to the type of links that are desired. However, there is no uniform approach as diverging political and administrative cultures as well as overall traditions
3. What is desirable? For inclusivity these three questions are interrelated in social, technical, economic, ecological, political and value/norm (acronym STEEPV) aspects of society.
-The assumption that all technologies are desirable and that people possess an infinite‘plasticity'toward the adoption of ever more invasive, complicated, if not complex technologies-The lack of trust between all the parties involved, especially between the‘expert'community and the general public,
without much overt questioning of whether many of the possible uses and outcomes were feasible, wise and desirable.
and technology the non-expert's view about desirability will be as important. The last of Barker and Peters fields (6) is clearly inaccessible even to the expert community who make up the committees that advise policy makers;
the element of desirability in the earlier quoted triple set of concerns Foresight needs to address.
what are likely to be desirable uses of anticipated future technologies through public participation in:°‘°‘Placing Foresight programmes in context
5. Admission of the social influence on the directions taken by science and technology from within and without the scientific and technology community 6. Greater attention to the question of desirability,
or rejects the desirability of nano artifacts. Immediately this raises questions of inclusivity and exclusivity, and of the nature of what is colloquially, vaguely and incorrectly called‘nanotechnology'.
of any kind that depends on the systemic interaction between nanoscience, nano-technology and the artifacts themselves for their evolution into desirable artifacts:
Nano artifacts depend on the convergence of sets of sciences and technologies, elsewhere called genus sciences and technologies 23, of very different kinds for their evolution into feasible and (hopefully) desirable artifacts.
and codification of the research and technological development needed for the creation of desirable artifacts. There are parallels here with the events that surrounded the success of gene-splicing in the early 1970s.
and widely accepted as desirable artifacts including high factor sun screens, tennis racquets reinforced with carbon nanotubes,
technological feasibility and artifact desirability of a nano artifact. 1218 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 participation in Foresight relating to these issues.
these people lead their lives in accord with private needs and desires (inner values. It is hard to be directed Inner without having internalised Outer-directedness, through exposure to it during childhood, adolescence or adulthood.
Direct experience and vigorous involvement are desired strongly in all their activities. Probably the most highly Inner-directed in the hierarchy and the most artistic and passionately involved with other people.
and placing emphasis on desirable end points. This approach is developed as a support tool for Constructive technology assessment (Constructive TA),
or would be desirable: what processes would lead to stabilisation, what options are there, should stabilisation be sought at this time
desirability and acceptability are taken into account. Innovation actors will be responsive and may be asked by societal actors to account for
Nanotechnology, even at this nascent stage, is stimulating a lot of speculation on shifts in these landscapes leading to a desire to explore the potential mutual co-evolution of nanotechnologies
if they agree societally desirable end points, their open-endedness is reduced somewhat). The co-evolution of regulatory approaches and technology options was discussed also throughout the workshop,
However, the type of priorities desired is not the only factor to consider when framing the scope of prioritisation.
a desire to identify topic areas sufficiently focused as to yield specific policy implications, and on the other hand, a need to avoid generating an inordinately long list of S&t topic areas requiring excessive amounts of effort to appraise.
but the closeness to policy making implied that some of the exploratory and‘out-of-the-box'thinking that would usually be part of a foresight process was regarded not desirable
Constructing a desired image of specific stakeholders predefines considerably their potential as participants and the scope of their contributions in visioning projects.
and refined in order to attract the desired target group of customers. However, similar to Fombrun's (1996) definition‘image'is here related to seemingly inherent characteristics,
when the goal is to create a shared and desired picture of the future, as is often the case in municipal visioning projects.
Visions as desired images of the future can be the result of a range of different foresight processes;
Visioning here has the clear advantage of concentrating on creating a shared and desired picture of the future from the very beginning of the process.
which ideas of the future should be labelled as‘desired 'and how the resulting visions should be used in the planning context.
‘All pupils and students in secondary schools and colleges should be invited to participate in a vision project organised by the municipality to create a desired picture of their community in 2020'.
'Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 976 S. Jenssen Figure 1. The future picture of Lundal was situated clearly within the possible and desirable.
which was situated clearly within the realm of the possible and desired. The project leader presented an illustration to school officials, social science teachers and students
This pointed towards a relative flexibility of what was regarded as possible and desirable development. Yet these three areas were situated already around one central dotted line
which the community council desires for the development of society. In order to obtain operative power the visions
Thus the resulting visions were defined already as those desired by the political leadership of the municipality of Lundal.
Apparently the assumed essential absence of capitalist interests was not enough to direct the young people's ideas in the desired direction.
and desire and not be connected to an idea of their community in the future. 15 Furthermore, the project leadership presumed the children's ideas to be unstructured
which would show desired descriptions of Lundal in 2020. These future pictures were to be written using expected trends in municipal developmmen coupled with the young people's ideas.
‘What is desirable?''18 In the case of the Lundal vision project, long-term social planningwas intended to be influenced by young people between 14 and 19 years of age.
The municipal project organisers had to ensure that the contributions were in line with the desired outcome:
Through both image construction and the pre-processual framing of contributions, the project leaders thus ensured that the future ideas contributed by the young were well within the possible and the desirable.
an additional stakeholder and participant construction by the project leaders was needed to ensure a desired outcome of the project.
‘in a wide range of contexts, present day evidences, proofs, facts or truths are giving way to future-oriented abstractions premised on desire,
Scripting semi-automates the processing steps to achieve the desired information products. In this example I apply Vantagepoint software www. thevantagepoint. com supported by Visual basic macros.
One reason for this was the desire to ensure that the panel chairmen would be fully responsible for the panel results.
Warnke and Heimeriks caution that this alone will not lead towards certain socially desirable areas of innovation
and that‘‘rebound effects''could lead to opposite impacts to that desired (e g . if transportation becomes cheaper and faster thanks to ICTS,
what are likely to be desirable uses of anticipated future technologies through public participation. -Avoid the assumption that people have infinite plasticity towards new technology.
and ethically desirable is needed. Implicitly, sustainable development recognises the need for technology to develop solutions that conserve the Earth's resources,
rather than by a genuine desire to involve the public into decision making. Hence, it is important to reflect on how FTA METHODS
by an analogy relating industrial systems to natural systems, a model for a desirable transition to cleaner production:
and polarities so that scenarios development appears to be both possible and desirable; Overall the many obviously very thoughtful responses and the depth and scope of imaginative thinking inherent in these responses suggest a robust series of discussions
and its emergent change, in a way that ensures that generally desirable outcomes will thrive, irrespective of
to ensure that the desirable ones are supported and the undesirable ones diverted. Axelrod and Cohen (2001) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 299 describe the idea of harnessing complexity to deliberately change the structure of the system,
Promoting variation in practical policy making terms can mean using several options to achieve an intended outcome as implementing a variety of policies to address the same issue increases the likelihood of achieving desired outcomes.
whether some development paths are more desirable than others. The scenario process was facilitated by the Finland futures research centre (FFRC) of the University of Turku in late 2008.
the Prime minister's Office had identified already the desired goal for the year 2050: development that will contribute to limiting the rise in the global average temperature to two degrees Celsius at the most,
Presenting the desired end state to the expert group and asking their views on the possibilities and prerequisites for the realisation of this future state.
four different paths for the desired end state PAGE 306 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 book Looking Backward 2000-1887.
Instead of continuities they build on possible discontinuities to reach the solution desired and try to break the trend of business-as usual.
and visions on the ways to achieve the desired low-emissions future. The participants represented various fields of societal expertise such as government administration
credibility, desirability, as well as obstacles and drivers for realisation of each scenario. Along with improving the drafted scenarios,
based on this new data, rewritten the four scenario drafts each depicting one possible path to the desired sustainable future (no higher rise than two Celsius degree in average earth temperature).
The desire to have numerical values to compare different future paths is understandable. In a political process there is a need for practical and easily digestible information,
Fig. 5. Architecture of suspended nanotube memory 16.12 Lithography is a common method used in the computer chip manufacturing industry to produce desired structures in materials. 13 The research agenda on nanotubes have,
if lifestyles and consumption behaviour are to be changed in the desired direction. In brief, Spain faces a major challenge to change social and cultural behaviour towards sustainable development.
2011) 7. As stated by its organizers and promoters, the project‘‘is based on the premise that prospective thinking about law is not only desirable
and their performance by contrasting their initial (and desirable) visions of the future with the one effectively accomplished;
evaluate and select strategic alternatives that can be used to achieve a desired S and T objective.
I desire here to remark that there are many other uses to which these instruments may be put,
challenges and opportunities and the relevance of knowledge for a particular situation More than future-oriented research Normative combining socio-techno-economic feasibility and scientific possibility to yield desirable outcomes
and puts them into practice to influence situations in desirable directions. In its context, FTA helps to develop hypotheses as to how present situations may evolve into the future,
in order to reach the desired common vision of sustainability. Keywords: network vision; management framework and path to sustainable development;
and coordinate resources Design the business FTA as a source of strategic intelligence provides insights into possible and desirable directions
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1128 Another significant outcome of the meeting with the IA leader was his desire
In particular, we have set‘Step J'engage experts alongside to call attention to the desirability of ongoing involvement of various knowledgeable persons.
it is desirable to elicit ideas from the experts on‘issues'.'That is, what important hurdles must be surmounted along the various innovation pathways?
The idea is that this helps focus monitoring efforts to seek out advances that could facilitate our desired application.
Figure 7 raises the desirability of life-cycle Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 857 analyses to consider likely life span, maintainability, material transformation
and common factors to be promoted toward the desired society. The result shows that green-related and life-related areas are two major areas where future innovation is expected.
where the participants discussed desired regional lives in the future, and what kind of science and technology will be expected to contribute to realize them.
the desire of their sponsors/clients; the number, experience, analytical and methodological skills and value system of their participants;
whilst always desirable, may not always be possible, either because the cultural differences are rooted deeply, or because the language used is intrinsically different.
Many papers have pointed to the desirability of improving the accuracy of trend projection methods 36 39.
and/or (3) how to value the desirability of alternative outcomes. Deep uncertainty pertains, in other words, from a modelers'perspective to situations in
Energy is a crucial domain inwhich a fundamental transition toward clean generation technologies is desirable 47 for environmental and security reasons.
and behavioral parameters such as price elasticity and desired profit margins. Typically plus and minus 50%of the default value Orders of time delays There are various time delays, such as building of new recycling capacity and mines.
Moreover, it illustrates how one can identify the ranges of uncertainties that are favorable to a desirable transition and
Creating awareness for the unforeseen is most often an important objective and desired outcome of this group of scenario practice.
but where little attention was paid to warnings has intensified this desire. Similar reactions have followed epidemics (the institution of government horizon scanning in the UK was at least in part a reaction to the BSE epidemic.
J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 but may not be desirable to achieve.
P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 21 When the main motive for using foresight methods is not necessarily a desire to realise a concrete policy end-product (such as an agenda, vision or strategy),
and to allow partners to think freely without trying to connect these possible states of the future with the desired IMS2020 vision,
For each snapshot feature project partners had to evaluate both the desirability and the likelihood of having such behaviour in 2020.
project partners had to assess all features within each snapshot scenario with respect to the likelihood and desirability of these becoming reality by 2020.
1 being not desirable or not likely, and 3 being desirable or likely to happen by 2020.
The results of this exercise were used then as an input for the development of the IMS2020 Vision during a vision building workshop,
which were desired (desirability=3) and somewhat likely to happen by 2020 (likelihood>2). Based on the results of the vision building workshop a first draft of the IMS2020 Vision was developed by JRC-IPTS.
One approach that may be effective at enabling the desired inclusive knowledge creation is to use the future as a catalyst for precipitating the collective intelligence of users and stakeholders 10.
and does not necessarily represent the possible, probable and desired evolution from a user point of view.
In turn, the link between citizens'expectations and desires collected via dialogue (phase 3) and feedback mechanisms (phase 4) did not generate new strategies (phase 1). Once such link could not materialise it was not possible to develop scenarios based upon strategic diagnosis (phase 2),
The futures research activities at EICT have in common that they are applied usually on a project basis. Projects are set up with explicit definitions of time, scope and desired results.
and desirability of joining the individual horizon scanning activities of the participating countries (the UK, Denmark and The netherlands).
or trends that are desirable or undesirable, likely to happen or unlikely to happen, possible to influence or inevitable.
and R&d programs/activities required in delivering the desired technologies. The time frame of the roadmaps was divided into three periods:
The underlyyin justification for public policies to support innovaatio is provided by the economic argument that otherwise the private sector would invest less in innovaativ activities than is socially desirable.
a client's needs and desires are debated extensively, the methods and tools to be applied are considdere
which focused on the knowledge required for a given exercise to achieve the desired outcomes is discussed in Section 5. Finally,
interpret and understand the client's needs, desires and preoccupations. In this context, the task is to help to articuulat
To attain the desired outcomes the challenge of engaging clients and stakeholders in the main and commitmeen phases depends on the ability of the coordination team to link the participating stakeholders to the technical and scientific communities and vice versa.
and by the desire to concentrate resources in centers or nodes of excellence. Perhaps the most obvious example is the NSFC
as should the dynamics of research and innovation processes and the scope and opportunities for steering their reorientation along more desirable pathways of development.
and towards an operational agenda that appreciates both the dynamics of innovation processes and the scope and opportunities for their steering or reorientation along more desirable paths of development.
and/or the articulation of widely shared visions that steer evolutiion along desirable pathways. This might involve thinking out of the box and challenging mind-sets,
and/or the articulating widely shared visions that steer evolutions along desirable paths. As noted earlier,
In order to create a desirable vision of the future that is somewhat grounded, it is first important to explore the so-called future‘possibility space'.
and explored before any attempts would be made to fashion a desirable vision..Resources: Foresight exercises depend upon a number of different resources,
The four exploratory scenarios articulated in Phase 2 provided stimulus for more creative thinking on a desirable success scenario
The resulting success scenario has a 20-year time horizon outlining the contours of a desirable state of international cooperation in science in 2031 and ICSU's role in its achievement.
a number of practical steps were identified as milestones along the way to achieving this desirable outcome.
there is every likelihood that the success scenario will be adopted formally as ICSU's long-term desirable vision for internatioona science
for delineating research directions, for contributing to the construction of advocacy coalitions in support of desirable change,
Here, the need for horizon scanning is intensified effecttivel by the long lead times for bringing about desired policy impacts (cf. climate change mitigatioon) Taking this remark further,
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