say, investment planning for fire-fighting. 469 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 information on any particular fire and consequently it will have to build on more generic knowledge on different sorts of fires, their probabilities and the like.
or key investments to be made. Secondly, the analytical boundaries of the innovation system that determines the evolution of the focal issue need to be clarified.
Such applications are well in line with early ideas on using real options for bridging the gap between strategic planning and investment 51.
Handbook of Systems analysis, Craft Issues and Procedural Choices, Elsevier/John Wiley, New york, 1988.22 S. K. Gupta, J. Rosenhead, Robustness in sequential investment decisions, Manage.
Sci. 15 (1968) 18 29.23 A. Dixit, R. Pindyck, Investment Under Uncertainty, Princeton university Press, Princeton, 1994.24 T. Copeland, V. Antikarov, Real Options.
Nordic and European future-oriented projects in defence, security, energy and transportation, typically with innovation and major investment decisions as important aspects.
However, in an age of strategic science and high-investment projects decision makers need to identify possible and promising directions and options and influence technology emergence in advance.
Each decision is strategic as it requires investments and expertise on the parts of actors involved
Thus innovation chain 1 was said to have a key stumbling block no clear market is visible for return on investment and thus.
However, the large risk of little return-on-investment has stimulated another form of innovation chain initiated by MNCS shown in innovation chain 2. This shifts the risk to SMES which the MNC contracts for risky projects.
Since a large investment is needed in integration there are specific advantages to be gained by building on proximity relations.
On the one hand, large investment in coordination is necessary and mobilising and coordinating resources is a key issue.
and intanggibl investments. While these are considered as facts, the factors affecting the degree to which these developments are facilitated
Supporting innovation-based growth Achievement of long-term reform of the productive system through a raised emphasis on high technology Making the case for increased investment in R&d More informed STI priorities
The Maltese case is also a good example of the high returns on investment associated with foresight training.
improve and increase investment in RTD, facilitate innovation and promote entrepreneurship. 570 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 vis-à-vis competitiveness;
the Technology barometer can be regarded as a new tool for managing strategic investments in R&d, as well as in other areas such as new skills acquisition and patents management etc.
Given the long life times of most infrastructures, strategic investment decisions will only take place every couple of decades.
Commissioners of strategic planning processes are interested mostly in low investment costs or low overall costs, while the regulatory agency is concerned with water quality.
Political actors of the region were keen on developing a perspective for the future of the sanitation system to avoid singular investments,
one in a rural area with an urgent need for investment in an old treatment plant.
and cover such areas as investment, communication, trust and general development risks. FIA thus steers the risk assessment to a more anticipatory and proactive direction.
In the technology barometer, the definition of an information society is focused around the investments in human and intellectual capital,
and both private and public investments in research and development (R&d). These investments show how effectively the information society related objectives will be achieved.
In conjunction with the reform of the Finnish information society strategy, the knowledge society is defined as one where knowledge
In technology barometer, the indicators of knowledge society assess the gearing of the human and intellectual capital investments towards science and technology
and the outcomes of these investments as R&d productivity. The knowledge-value society refers to an advanced formthat has developed froman information society via a knowledge society,
and Sweden excel (Fig. 2). This is partly explained by vigorous investments in the development of intellectual capital.
The fourth group of respondents, that of Company Executives, was formed from one hundred of the largest Finnish companies measured in terms of their product development investments.
and related indicators are the level of investment, entrepreneurial activity and the impact of technology development on the quality of life.
) Employment Index (Storrie and Bjurek) Innovation/technology Summary Innovation Index (EC) Networked Readiness Index (CID) National Innovation Capacity Index (Porter and Stern) Investment
3. 2. Knowledge society development 3. 2. 1. Investment in research and product development 3. 2. 2. Information and communication technologies ICT expenditure The use of information
4. 4. Innovative society 4. 4. 1. Investments and entrepreneurial activeness 4. 4. 2. Potential effects of the development of technology on the quality of life 4. 5
Entanglements such as sunk investments (and the anticipations on which investments are based) and industry standards are some examples.
Anticipation on further regulatory delays sees shift in private investments from nano to other promising technologies.
and large investments are made leading to positive gains. Early engagement exercises and high profile projects such as Nano Jury UK
in Finland, sunken investments enable further development (but create constraints later on in the scenario). Focused investments included nanofiltration (for effluent treatment), nanocoatings (for pigment and texture) and nanodiagnostics (for monitoring quality) and nanocharacterisation (for deeper understanding of paper materials.
The specificity of the case related to opportunities to cut costs, reduce use of chemicals and improve manufacture.
and large investments are made leading to positive gains A governance option of no standards: there is a tension,
which is difficult to open up without major investment of resources..However, there is alignment in the complicated relationships between technology platforms (multi-functionalised nanoparticles,
because of huge sunk investment Finland begins to suffer..Finnish economy begins to suffer due to the high sunk investments into nanotechnology based infrastructure.
Public outcry as consumer organisations identify major issues in a number of sectors which could hold potential risk with no protection for the consumer (the house of cards collapses) Window of opportunity for selectors:
entanglements due to sunk investments (Finnish policy), collective decision on technology developer side for soft law, etc.
and integration, The Handbook of Science and Technology studies, 2007.2 H. te Kulve, A. Rip, Engagement Requires Investment in Pre-engagement:
business cycles and investment behaviour, in: G. Dosi, C. Freeman, R. R. Nelson, L. Soete, G. Silverberg (Eds.
so that priorities for investment in science and innovation activities can be set;(2) reorienting the science and innovation system;
Early public investments in R&d and innovation were influenced by private sector activities and largely sought to support them.
in order to better ensure that additional public investment in R&d will yield expected economic and social benefits.
'since future investments in research infrastructures or future changes in policies/regulations, for example, can make a significant difference to a country's ability to exploit a particular S&t thematic area.
and To determine appropriate investment levels through support instruments such as the FNR programmes. However, the MCHER also asked the FNR to limit the exercise to identification of thematic priorities only with the argument that structural aspects would be analysed by the OECD. Thus,
or three in which high levels of new investment could be targeted, but this was always going to be near impossible for the FNR Foresight exercise to achieve, for several reasons.
since the FNR represents only about 20%of the public investment in research Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 946 F. Glod et al.
12 Organizations, including Australian manufacturing, power, gas, investment & government. Low High tech Fit Tech Coverage Tech Concentration Hungry?
However, they argue that this engagement has sometimes been perceived too narrowly as being synonymous with the identification of broad technological priorities for investment.
It represents a new co-financing mechanism for collaborative transnational R&d projects expected to lever private and national investment,
the accountants will want immediate documentation of a return on investment for the cost of the meetings.
usually with the broad aim of selecting priorities for research investments. The early Japanese Delphi exercises were applied mainly in this context
Instrumental The outputs were used to contribute to a joint security technology initiative of Canada as well as strategic S&t investments in the Defence R&d Canada Centre for Security Science.
Consensual FISTERA identified priority application areas where investments in ICT research should be intensified in the future, motivated both by S&t developments and by socioeconomic needs.
and how S&t foresight and strategic S&t investments in the new Centre for Security Science could help to acquire those capabilities.
socially responsible investment (SRI) has become mainstream since 1999 when the Dow jones Sustainability Indexes were created,
Socially responsible investment is about investors taking ethical, social and environmental criteria into account when making investment decisions.
SRI plays an important part in creating corporate and public awareness about CSR issues and about the active role that the financial community can play in furthering social causes without suffering financially.
To link foreign direct investments to CSR, the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises (MNES) provide voluntary principles
and are a part of thedeclaration on International Investment. Nevertheless, the number of voluntary standards has risen in the last decades and put companies in difficult situations in abiding by their principles.
which integrates value chain social impacts and investments in competitive context; it is developed the means by a firm to build a proper dialogue with stakeholders
1. Rapid and accelerating technological progress in pervasive fields such as microelectronics, ICTS, biotechnology, new materials, fuel cells and nanotechnologies. 2. Increased financial, trade and investment
The short-term performance pressures companies face rule out indiscriminate investments in social value creation. It suggests,
as long-term investment in a firm's future competitiveness. The money already invested in CSR
Value chain and competitive investments in CSR need to be incorporated into firms'performance measures and reporting.
In its Science and Innovation Investment Framework 2004 2014, the UK Government committed to establishing a Centre of Excellence in Horizon scanning
Policy or regulatory changes that lead to changes in government priorities, company actions and investments;
and forces that change from year to year and may be amenable to stakeholder actions and strategic choices by way of one's investments, new alignments, infrastructure, R&d,
which may be amenable to changes according to one's strategic choices, investments, R&d activities or foresight knowledge and strategies.
and provides an opportunity for small entrepreneurs to enter the telephone business with relatively little investment.
religious and team sport identities Changes in health risk perception Ethical investment in development projects to promote sustainability Science & Tech. 46 Maturation of S, T and Humanities relationship
cultural, physical and biological improvements New investments in the Internet capacity improvement Progress in genetic therapy, stem cells and molecular medicine pharmacology Sunburst of change in vehicle technology
one family houses being viewed as the best possible means of residing, acclimatisation to inexpensive energy and huge sunk investments in the existing energy infrastructure.
i e. employment, industrialisation, investments, and education policy. Bottlenecks hindering the growth of new business opportunities for low-emission technology
the continuity of the financial investment presupposed in the application of fta tools?).Given the systemic unpredictability of the future 20, how can FTA-based
There is spill over into the fast moving fields of investment and money, where invention and innovation move at an alarming pace.
They take the prediction of Moore's Law as a yardstick for their own progress and for further investments.
Companies use the prediction of Moore to decide on the R&d goals and the size of the investments.
what expectations do is to raise attention and legitimise investments: a project or programme can be defended by referring to a promising future (Borup et al. 2006.
They propose that a new development is accompanied by‘inflated expectations'that receive much attention and mobilise many investments,
whether or not investments are useful (Figure 1). This is an attempt to outwit herd behaviour,
and potential business areas and for assessing investment (and divestment) decisions for Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 789 expanding
Investment under uncertainty. Princeton, NJ: Princeton university Press. Duncan, R. B. 1972. Characteristics of organizational environments and perceived environmental uncertainty.
Evaluation of Laboratory directed research and development investment areas at Sandia Kevin W. Boyack*,Nabeel Rahal Sandia National Laboratories, 1 P o box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185, United states
Recently, information visualization techniques have been used with corporate data to map several LDRD investment areas for the purpose of understanding strategic overlaps and identifying potential opportunities for future development outside of our current technologies.
Investment; Sandia 1. Introduction The Laboratory-directed research and development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories conducts world-class research on a variety of subjects that are relevant to Sandia's missions and potentially useful to other national needs.
Research investment decisions made 10 and 15 years ago are having a direct impact on national security programs today.
Sandia's LDRD program is divided into roughly a dozen different investment areas (IAS) including five that we focus on in this paper:
thus enabling them to better leverage investments in other areas. Benchmarking was accomplished by comparing the visualizations with the mental models of IA leads experts who have used,
A sixth dot color represents CIS indirect investments. Overlaps between areas can be seen where dots of different colors are shown together.
Fig. 6 shows the overall scatterplot comprising investment in LDRD by all of the U s. DOE's laboratories.
Small filled circles indicate LDRD investments made by all other DOE laboratories. The area inside the dashed box is explored further in Fig. 7. K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1132 competencies,
Some of these were anticipated by the CIS investment team in that the FY2005 calls (issued in March 2004) reflected an increased interest in informatics,
but that currently receive little or no Sandia investment. K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1133 rolling up all of the IAS to an overall Sandia category.
and new opportunities can benefit the return on investment to their IAS, that they will put the results into practice.
and join the best of those to our visualizations to answer questions related to return on investment 11.
and the region's place in the era of globalization. 3. Integrative study 3. 1 Advantage of combination A good public investment in research and development needs an overall picture of facets of science
Although many grand challenges have relatively clear implications for research and innovation (investment), others do not.
and remains a key objective of investment in research and innovation programmes. However, another factor has emerged in the European context,
This article presents some recent experience of how national research and innovation systems use futures to construct responses (such as new investment priorities) to emerging global challenges and opportunities.
an instrumental expectation that investments will address particular problem areas and boost economic competitiveness. It could be argued that the main narrative of EU Research,
In summary, over the last five years or so, an increasingly consensual view has emerged that Europe needs to direct its investment
The Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Innovation asked‘‘that the group focus on areas that will yield the best return for taxpayers'investment in research and ultimately
investment Smart travel Carbon taxes Transport market liberalisation versus environmental regulation Education and skills The knowledge economy ICT in education Social mobility and higher education Social
globally mobile investors and concerns within the country regarding the scale and constant need for significant research investments Does Ireland have in place the enabling mechanisms
Responding to grand challenges may require some longer-term investment decisions and commitments. There is a persuasive view that that longer-term thinking
and perspective innovation projects for investment. The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,
and the potential for further S&t development identified the need to increase appropriate investments significantly. Also, major innovation projects were identified with the promise of high economic and social return.
if the technology is worth the investment. Howwill the technology develop in the future? Will the technology flourish in the future
different technologies Initial costs Initial investment cost of new capacity of a particular technology Parametric Varying between €500, 000 and €10 million per MW Economic growth Economic growth
rate Parametric Randomly fluctuating between-0. 01 and 0. 035 (smoothed concatenation of 10-year random growth values) Investment preference structures Preference criteria
driven by mechanisms such as total energy demand, investment costs and the effect of learning curves on costs.
it means that the old dominant technology outperforms the other technologies in terms of expected investment costs and CO2 avoidance, which,
and to shift investments to Technologies 3 and 4 instead. So, we modified our basic policy by adding the monitoring and corrective actions and reran the experiments.
we use the investment cost of new technologies as a signpost. A possible defensive action would be to subsidize one
and Management, Mcgraw-hill, New york, 2003.22 E s. Schwartz, L. Trigeorgis, Real Options and Investment under Uncertainty:
EMA is used to explore plausible transition trajectories in the face of these developments given technological uncertainty about investment and operating costs,
and socioeconomic uncertainty about fuel prices, investment decisions of suppliers, and load curves. 3. 1. Mineral scarcity The first case explores uncertainties related to the availability of minerals/metals that are crucial for the sustainable development of all developed and developing societies.
we use EMA to explore plausible transition trajectories in the face of these developments given technological uncertainty about investment and operating costs,
and socioeconomic uncertainty about fuel prices, investment decisions of suppliers, and load curves. Various alternative developments for these uncertainties are specified.
The long-term decisions are related to capacity investment and decommissioning, which decisions are expected mainly based on lifetime of the technology used in a generation unit.
and feasible investment options. 3. 3. 2. Uncertainties Table 6 presents an overview of the uncertainties that are explored in the EMA study.
For example, assume the investment cost of wind turbine is 100, and the Investment Cost Factor for wind is 0. 8,
then the model will be initialized with an investment cost of 100×0.8=80. To be more precise,
it is not the initial investment cost we are altering, but the expected future investment cost towards
which the option evolves during the time horizon of the simulation. 3. 3. 3. Analysis of results Fig. 5 shows a performance envelope for five outcome indicators.
Total generation: total amount of electric energy generated. Total fossil: total amount of electric energy generated using fossil fuels as the energy source.
Name Description Range Investment cost factor Multiplier factor to alter the future investment cost of new generation options 0. 6 1. 25 Operational cost factor
Planning horizon for each generation company is initialized randomly using a uniform distribution with a lower (i e. 5 years) and an upper bound) 6 12 Mean return on investment of generation companies Average expected return
-on-investment for the generation companies 0. 1 0. 25 427 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 irreducible uncertainties inherent in the forces driving toward an unknown future beyond the short term
The foreseen outcome of long-term investments or policies, for example, can be visualized and confronted with a changing environment.
‘National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) Leading to a New Industrial revolution',should approximately double the Federal government's annual investment in nanoscience,
Ensure that Federal investments in science and technology are making the greatest possible contribution to economic prosperity, public health, environmental quality,
but nevertheless interconnected fabric of how to use the future to address technological research, investment, sectoral and societal choices?
and improve the decision-making base for investments in technology development in Denmark. The project can be done in connection with public investments in technological service and in connection with larger interdisciplinary research groups, for example'.
'1 Hence, technology foresight was seen to be part of the government's business policy and not, in particular, part of science policy,
The scenarios were used to reflect on the strategies of the city council's urban development Investment Programme.
The two project coordinators of the Investment Programme were interviewed after the development of the scenarios.
Also, the risk and investments involved in taking innovations to the market can be shared. Here, collaborative futures research activities supported by EICT make it possible to identify risks
and keeps investment levels low. However, the partners do not use the full potential of the network.
which for instance could be used for setting priorities for future investments but also for initiattin public debate. Development of the national horizon scans Data collection All three scans were developed in phases.
better informed about risks Using foresight to evaluate and future-proof strategies and priority actions Better evidence-based policies Making the case for increased investments in R&d Note:*
A further way of supporting private investment in innovation is through tax incentives for R&d expenditures (see Jaumotte and Pain, 2005 for a survey of the main fiscal policies to support innovation.
Thus, public fiscal policies to support innovation are designed to alleviate particcula forms of market failure that would lead to under-investment.
are quite underrepreesente among the subsidized firms (4%),reflecctin the strong tendency of this branch of aboveaveerag investment in R&d.
Do innovation subsidies crowd out private investment? Evidence from the German service sector, ZEW Discussion paper No. 02-04, Mannheim, Germany:
and analysis of robustness Final report and dissemination of results Water resources Establishment of ST&I priority agenda aimed at guiding future investments made by governmental agencies in six predefined themes Quality
in order to guide national investments in nanosciences and nanotechnologies Trends in S&t development in a selected group of countries;
trends in private sector investments worldwiide state-of-the-art in nanoscience and nanotechnollog in Brazil (main research groups, lab infrastruccture funding, training activities
but also the fundamental policy stance on opening up China for trade and investment, for example through accession to the World trade organization and the policy of attracting foreign technollog and investments.
tending towards tangible projects and activities rather than investments in infrastructure and diffusion. Figure 2. Weighting of funding in Chinese science policy.
Perhaps the most important investments in institutionaan capacity-building are made in the field of education.
and Lundvall (2006) who argue that the investments in S&t have not been supported sufficiently by institutional development.
A related debate centered on the impact of foreign direct investment, which had been encouraged strongly by Chinese official policy,
Furthermore, the increasing research investments are expected to provide the foundattio for future economic growth, to enable the restructuring of industry from low-tech to high-tech,
linking investments in S&t to broader societal goals which gave science policy a widened political mandate.
In 1950, the government launched the‘Statute for Encouraging Foreign Direct Investment'(abolished in 1990)
and then gradually withdrew their investments in the 1990s. After that there were fewer and fewer large firms involved in pharmaceutical manufacturing.
business routines as well as organisational and institutional patterns and infrastrucctures finance available (including foreign direct investment), public procurement, standards, intellectual property rights, regulations etc.
it is important for innovation systems to be able to guide actors in selecting options for investment.
and a business focus beyond a mere return on investment and greater orientation towards the public good.
coordinating experiments, levering investments, facilitating learning and informing expectations. In this regard there is a need for additional policies that are related to networks, community building, visions, experiments and learning.
and investment priorities for public policies Evaluate existing strategies against potential futures, and devise future-proof strategies Develop reference material for policy-makers
and attractive places for investment Enhance responsiveness of organisations by supporting change in individuals'behaviour
Designing research policy and strategy with broad aim of selecting priorities for research investments and cooperation of R&i actors.
The USA, Japan and Europe continue to dominate in terms of national investment and performance. Whilst several countries such as Brazil, China and India are making rapid progress (Royal Society 2011
There remain a large number of poorer countries where investment in science is negligible (UNESCO 2010.
How they will attract science investment in relation to national priorities and how committed countries will be to them are key factors in determining the strength of international science.
like exploring future opportunities in order to set priorities for investment in science and innovation activities, reorienttin the science and innovation system, demonstrating the vitality of the science and innovation system, bringing new actors into the strategic debate,
because, for example, commercialization of innovations is usually dependent on investments and development activities realized by multiple actors.
and deem investments in this area to be unnecessary. The third driver is emission trading, which is currently starting to have an effect on companies.
For instance, some programmes may require joint infrastruuctur investments, innovation clusters may benefit from links with coordinated programmes.
National regulations constraining funding to national activities Differences in national funding rules Uncertainty at national level of rewards of collaboration Inequality of investment makes it impractical to design joint programmes Programme
4 5 6 7 Knowledge exchange Knowledge clustering Level of strategic approach to S&t cooperation Degree of networking Joint infrastructure investments No instruments no cooperation 0 1
and foreign RTD investments (Kaiser and Prange 2004). Indeed, today the research system is an integral part of the prevailing multilayered innovation system.
At the same time, the new global context suggests increased financial, trade and investment flows leading to high levels of interconnectedness.
and collaboration across different and segmennte policies In the cases where conflicts may arise even small investments in examining the issues may be blocked.
As Choo (2001) points out, horizon scanning is a long-term investment that needs a critical mass of talent and resources.
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