forecasting

Forecasting

Forecasting (206)
Forecasting methods (14)
Technological forecasting (574)

Synopsis: Forecasting:

ART1.pdf

Forecasting and Assessment Methodst that was held in Seville on 13 14 may 2004, organised by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of European commission's Directorate General Joint research Centre.

In addition, the idea was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice among technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.

Scapolo@cec. eu. int Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 The seminar was organised to encourage cross-fertilization along six key issues of relevance for FTA research:

A wide range of F. Scapolo/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 1060 techniques and tools were used in complex combinations

They ranged over linking evolutionary theory with foresight to provide F. Scapolo/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 1061 new ways of framing studies, applying the concepts underlying marketing tools based on human behaviour to foresight design,

and on how the utility of outcomes can impact the different forms of FTA (i e. technology foresight, technology assessment, technology forecasting, technology and product roadmapping).

The article describes the F. Scapolo/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 1062 process on how the system operates, the players involved,

F. Scapolo/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 1063

ART10.pdf

Adaptive foresight: Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies E. Anders Eriksson A k. Matthias Weber b a FOI Defence Analysis, SE-16490 Stockholm, Sweden b ARC systems

Policy strategy Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 Corresponding author.

Conventional forecasting approaches with their aim of predicting the future were based on a linear understanding of processes of socio-technical change that is simply an inappropriate representation of reality and thus misleading rather than enlightening with respect to informing decisions.

However, although the dominant model of foresight pursues a more modest level of aspiration than forecasting,

K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 there is a need to move a step beyond collective processes

K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 tendances lourdes can be identified like the development of electricity and propulsion technologies starting in the late 19th century and information

465 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 distinct from‘technology forecasting'and the like. 3 This broadening

also earlier technology forecasting approaches like the large Delphi studies introduced in Japan in the early seventies

however, the distinction between foresight and forecasting is useful. 4 See, for instance, the pioneering work by Best

and in Hungary 14.466 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 influenced by its results.

K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 Finally it should be pointed out that this criticism against

the FOREN guide 17 and the UNIDO Technology foresight Manual 18.468 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 2

K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 information on any particular fire and consequently it will have to build on more generic knowledge on different sorts of fires, their probabilities and the like.

K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 adaptable enough to allow the second-period decision to go for any of the considered visionary structures at reasonable lead-time

14 where the complex forecasting and assessment type of approach initially 12 Dixit and Pindyck 23 and Copeland and Antikarov 24 have prepared two very useful texts on real options theory. 13 See for instance the emphasis put on learning processes in protected spaces which is core to the approaches of Strategic

Niche Management 25 and Transition Management 26.14 FANTASIE Forecasting and Assessment of New Transport Technologies and Systems and their Impact on the Environment,

K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 planned proved difficult to pursue to the letter.

K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 It should be clear from the two last bullets above that Adaptive foresight does not come with a onesiizefits-all implementation.

and that the original client gives his full consent. 473 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 3. 2. 2. Phase 1:

K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 While there are many ways to use such knowledge,

K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 identifying a hierarchy of driving variables such that some are seen as more fundamental/independent and others as more derived.

In back-office work also the same types of simulation models as in Phase 3 can be useful. 476 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75

In other words, so far we have been mainly discussing the early phases of the 477 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 policy process.

see footnotes 14 21.478 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 years of experience with foresight, adaptive planning

K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 AF offers a learning framework rather than just an impressionistic one.

Participatory Technology assessment, European Perspectives, CSD, London, 2002.480 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482

. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 36 R. Compano, C. Pascu, J.-C. Burgelman, M. Rader, R

and in the emergence and performance of R&d collaboration networks. 482 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482

ART11.pdf

Robust Portfolio Modeling Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 Corresponding author.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 programs to the institutionalization of a new legal entity for allocating a common pot of resources through competitive calls for proposals.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 different countries in order to promote the competitiveness and sustainability of the European forest cluster.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 (and arguably in many other international consultation processes, too) was the multiplicity of interfaces

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 Woodwisdom-Net which also provided feedback on it.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 leaders, and especially those that were evaluated favorably were discussed in a series of four workshops.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 Industrial leaders evaluated issues, and a total of some 50 Industrial leaders participated the assessment phase.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 maker would not choose a dominated portfolio,

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 program. In each country, thenational Coordinators identified one representative from wood-material-based industry and one member of the research community and invited these to the workshops.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 research sub-area, participants were encouraged to comment on the issues within it (approx. 1 h). Third, for each of the research sub-areas,

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 participants will be invited to workshops and in what phases of the process.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 4 TFAMWG Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis:

He has published in journals such as Technological forecasting and Social Change and International Journal of Technology management. Totti Könnölä (M. Sc. 2001, D. Tech. 2006) is Researcher at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495

ART12.pdf

Regulatory foresight: Methodologies and selected applications Knut Blind Regulation and Innovation Competence Center Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Germany Berlin University of Technology, Faculty Economics and Management

In contrast to the longer tradition of impact assessment of Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Berlin University of Technology, Faculty

and indeed requires, the inclusion of standards in our analysis. 497 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Regarding the impact assessment of standards,

and psychologically make Fig. 1. Regulatory foresight vs. regulatory impact assessment. 498 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 it necessary to anticipate these changes before they become reality 16.

an IST project of the 6th Framework programme. 499 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 also the results of the OECD 4. However,

Fahrenkrog et al. 19.500 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Since our focus is mainly on regulatory foresight in the narrower sense,

Threats to health, safety and the environment can be identified by searches both in the patent data for 501 K. Blind/Technological forecasting

Blind 21 modifying Grupp 24). 502 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 call for adjustments or even for a completely new framework.

e g. surveys or Delphi studies. 503 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 3. 2. Surveys 3. 2. 1. Introduction and definition

Recently, Swann 18 used this information to assess the impact of British standards for the innovation activities of British companies. 504 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516

505 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 increasing demand for service-related standards and to coordinate the different national activities better.

and experimental development. 506 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Summarising the results of the survey and relating them to the conceptual framework,

Fig. 4. Shares of involvement in producing different types of standards differentiated by type of organisation. 507 K. Blind/Technological forecasting

the regulatory framework is of relatively small importance. 508 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 In contrast,

in the final section we will present some results of a small-scale Delphi study among participants of an ITU (International Telecommunication Union) expert workshop on Adjusting Forecasting methods to the Needs of the Telecommunication Sector organised in September 2004.

One of these case studies focused on the future regulatory framework for the use of smart cards. 509 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Table 2 Future

enabling at least half of company workers engaged in indirect duties to tele-commute. 2015 3. 25 3. 20 2. 53 2. 23 3. 07 510 K. Blind/Technological forecasting

In general, the people addressed should be selected according to a minimum degree of expertise in the field. 511 K. Blind/Technological forecasting

However, the databases provide further information about 512 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 regulation-relevant contents, like health,

) and future time horizon 513 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 representatives of public organisations and regulatory bodies,

514 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 5 European commission, European Governance:

515 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 35 I. Mörschel, C. Schwengels:

explanations and solutions, EURAS Proceedings 2006, Wissenschaftsverlag Mainz, Aachen, 2006, pp. 61 70.40 T. J. Gordon, O. Helmer, Report on a Long-range Forecasting

but also in the fields of standards, regulation and intellectual property rights on behalf of the European commission and Ministries in Germany and other countries. 516 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516

ART13.pdf

Constructive technology assessmentavailable online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Corresponding author.

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 of alignment to allow for the creation of innovation chains in the field of micro and nanotechnology.

and tools for portfolio and project management. 519 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The point we make is that technological uncertainty

sample preparation, pretreattment analysis, manipulation and removal. 520 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538

Deuten 2003, page 14). 521 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 then sustained by increasing returns.

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 With respect to the first notion a path lies at the domain level.

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 This can be translated into a prospective innovation chain diagram (see Fig. 2) where we see scientific and technological research on the left-hand side of the diagram,

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The central bubble describes the further technical development of an experimental integration of elements into a working lab-on-a-chip device

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 be illustrated and discussed. In the following two sections we will describe both MPMS,

and promises about tissue engineering on a chip, stem cell analysis and possible production, 526 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 however can use different approaches and technologies shown in the lowest band on the diagram.

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Such an MPM-1 can be useful for developing a portfolio of research projects

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 describe the details of the workshop process elsewhere. 17 Here we focus on the results relating to the MPM-2. The group identified a number of existing

www. technology assessment. eu. 530 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 but then proceeded to outsource the further development of product

4) Heterogeneous clusters. 531 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 move towards a generic platform

which can in themselves be turned into innovations. 23 This also a general issue in relation to the current situation of strategic science and application oriented research. 532 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting

From the outset 533 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 no preference can be given to any chain,

and ways of bridging 534 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 the gaps.

an academic perspective, Technovation 17 (8)( 1997) 417 426.6 H. J. Duus, Strategic business market forecasting, Strateg.

Manag. 32 (3 4)( 2005) 388 407.535 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 2004, pp. 13 14.28 T. Fleischer, M. Decker,

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 2004, pp. 13 14.29 S. Kuhlmann, et al.

, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 39 R. Garud, P. Karnøe, Path creation as a process of mindful deviation, in:

Policy (36)( 2007) 871 879.537 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 68 D

where he analyzes genetics/genomics based innovation chains and actor strategies in the converging zone of the food and health sectors. 538 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change

ART14.pdf

Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Corresponding author.

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 knowledge societies are to flourish. Given this, there is need to develop a model capable of describing

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 capital as key factors underpinning the more technical features of the knowledge-based economy and the realisation of a‘knowledge society'.

see 1. 542 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 the literature review,

'drivers and factors shaping modern societies. 7 See for example 2100 543 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 versions

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 This can be enriched by taking further sub-objectives and related impacts into account,

'545 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 has to be modified,

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 goal can be identified and what factors lead to

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 principles that a foresight exercise should adopt

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 in three categories: immediate; intermediate;

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 The evaluation was critical of the intervention logic,

thus providing comprehensive lists of criteria and important factors in different conditions and environments. 550 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539

551 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Given that all the elements of a foresight system can now be identified,

'552 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 competition, crowding and speed;(

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 information, but also by people's wants, motives, personalities, experiences, value systems, wishes, hopes, expectations, beliefs, feelings, attitudes, needs and concerns.

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557‘knowledge society'are required also to enhance participatory governance and vice versa,

The applicability of the resulting impact assessment framework (s) will then be tested via case studies. 555 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 References 1 E. Amanatidou,

assessing rationale, process and impact, Technological forecasting and Social Change 73 (7)( 2006) 761 777.9 A. Havas, Context, focus and coherence of foresight programmes, Lessons from the Czech republic and Hungary, Paper

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.10 A. Havas, Terminology and Methodology for Benchmarking Foresight programmes,

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.16 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology Futures analysis:

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.17 M. Ladikas, M. Decker, Assessing the Impact of future-Oriented Technology assessment, Paper 1 in proceedings EU

New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.18 Technopolis, et al. Using Logic models, The results of a study exploring how logic models can be used to develop a methodological framework for the high-quality assessment of IST-RTD effects at the Strategic Objective level, Commission Contract No 29000,2006. 19 W. W. Powell, in:

the transaction cost approach, American Journal of Sociology 87 (3)( 1981) 548 575.556 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008

15-16 St mary's House, St mary's Road, Shoreham-by-Sea, West sussex, UK BN43 5za. 557 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change

ART15.pdf

The proposed three-level structure of futures or‘cascading'visions offers several advantages for policy-makers at various Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75

one of the terms to denote systematic prospective analysis. 559 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 starting point the‘unit of analysis'is either an existing or an abstract (hypothetical) university.

their presence is likely to be pronounced more. 560 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 This is a sort of‘top-down'approach,

they consider alternative futures (as opposed to e g. forecasting exercises; they are oriented action (unlike e g. academic papers in the tradition of futures studies;

report 21.561 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 2. The role of universities in knowledge production 2. 1. The changing landscape of research systems Universities have traditionally been key players in

For a more detailed discussion, see, e g. 31.562 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 As for the third aspect, the very fact that universities'research efforts lead to rather diverse outputs (outcomes

signalling in itself no great likelihood of later worldly success. 37.563 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 of universities,

as well as the findings presented at workshops organised by EC JRC IPTS on the Future of European University. 564 A. Havas/Technological forecasting

and as the training of the future generation of researchers. 565 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 The most important driving forces can be derived by considering the increasingly intense global competition in research activities;

566 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 evolve, 23 and that could change the‘ecology'quite radically, e g. in terms of more pronounced variety,

see, e g. 1, 22,42. 567 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 3. Stronger, better articulated needs for multi-(trans;

let alone among different types of them. 568 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 4. Futures for universities Vision-building requires an intense dialogue among stakeholders for two reasons:(

569 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 Futures developed in genuine foresight processes can be direct (or positive) inputs for policy preparation or strategy building processes:

facilitate innovation and promote entrepreneurship. 570 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 vis-à-vis competitiveness;

but a flexible interpretation of the Triad regions can easily include any relevant countries. 571 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 Table 2 Features of the ERIA in two

capable of renewal and adaptation to the external environment, underpinning sustained competitiveness 572 A. Havas/Technological forecasting

and/or leading to waste of public resources. 573 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 all five of them are equally relevant from a policy strategy) point of view.

and thus devote more intellectual and financial resources to it. 574 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 other internal processes to the ever changing external environment, expressed by the needs of their‘clients':

are considered in 21.575 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 The methods, approaches,

as well as by offering these new types of insights for other actors 576 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 universities,

not directly related to research activities of universities, are discussed in 21.577 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 touch with reality.

and on the‘mission'of the European 578 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 Innovation and Research area are made in a transparent and conscious way.

The national 579 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 governments, international organisations and associations of universities can provide methodological and financial support for these initiatives.

Implications for Innovation policy, Office for Official Publications of the European communities, Luxembourg, 1999.580 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 15 OECD, New Rationale

http://www. europa. eu. int/comm/regional policy/sources/docoffic/2007/osc/index en. htm. 581 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008

He has advised national governments and international organisations on the above issues. 582 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582

ART16.pdf

FTA provides a common umbrella for the foresight, forecasting and technology assessment communities. These closely related communities play an important role in guiding policy

of which this special issue for Technological forecasting and Social Change consists of the selected papers with particular emphasis on methodological aspects of FTA,

Not only does his paper clearly posit the Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting

but it also directly aims its messages at policy makers responsible for designing more effective strategies for the deployment of public funds for R&d and those responsible for forecasting where and how to do this no small task indeed!

storage and distribution in Australia. 1136 Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137 We conclude with the observation of Scott Cunningham

and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission. 1137 Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137

ART17.pdf

Hierarchical random graphs Architectural innovation Technology forecasting Design 1. Introduction This paper examines a technique suitable for monitoring

It is the newest and most novel of technologies which presents the greatest challenges for technological forecasting.

One approach to the management of technological uncertainty has been to initiate the technological forecasting process only once a dominant design has emerged 3. Once a dominant design has been selected,

Thus, exploratory modeling is used to explore Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 E-mail address:

10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.014 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change alternative views of the future,

Relevant research has approached the problem of forecasting radical technological change with methods for supporting analysis for both decomposition and integration of new technologies.

In addition, the paper outlines several important caveat about the use of these models in forecasting new technology:

A structured representation of the data provides a principled account of where technological change is most likely to occur. 1139 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 The article

so that it can be used for analysis, design and forecasting. If this hypothesis of distributed knowledge bases is correct,

and how concerned we are with a robust representation of the data in the presence of noise. 1140 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting

the total Fig. 1. Example hierarchical random graph. 1141 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 number of links or edges

Fig. 3. Different network structures encoded with a hierarchical random graph. 1142 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 4. Results In this results section we apply the methodology described in the previous section to a specific system of new technologies.

Fig. 4. Expanding network of hyperlinks in Wikipedia. 1143 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 At least three other networks have been studied in the context

data. 1144 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 The resultant hierarchical random graph usefully distinguishes between high-level concepts

but not yet observed in the Wikipedia knowledge base are shown below in Table 2. Fig. 6. Consensus diagram for Ajax Technologies. 1145 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting

Thus, the hierarchical random graph approach may provide a new forecasting, analysis and design technique for architectural innovation.

We have argued in this paper that many previous technology forecasting techniques have focused only on incremental and dominant designs.

%1146 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 Techniques such as the link prediction algorithm described here might assist in radical innovation processes by providing rapid

which are most problematic for forecasting, analysis and design. Nonetheless this leaves the form of architectural innovation whereby innovators explore interactions between routine, highly available components,

and technology information, is likely to be material as well as semiotic in character. 1147 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting

Q. 35 (1990) 6045 6633.4 A l. Porter, A t. Roper, T. W. Mason, F. A. Rossini, J. Banks, Forecasting and Management of Technology

CRC Press, Boca raton, 1998.1148 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 10 D. R. Swanson, N. R. Smalheiser

was published in 2001 with Wiley. 1149 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149

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