Forecasting methods

Forecasting (206)
Forecasting methods (14)
Technological forecasting (574)

Synopsis: Forecasting: Forecasting methods:

in the final section we will present some results of a small-scale Delphi study among participants of an ITU (International Telecommunication Union) expert workshop on Adjusting Forecasting methods to the Needs of the Telecommunication Sector organised in September 2004.

Thus, we and others argue that instead of using forecasting methods to produce single-value deterministic images of the future,

and M. Borup With this understanding of strategy it is logical to use forecasting methods capable of analysing the uncertainties in the future strategic environment.

'Apart from that, many methods, also forecasting methods can be included. Foresight practitioner and theorist Ron Johnston (2008,18) asserts:‘

Introduction From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is derived a term from a collective description given to the range of technology-oriented forecasting methods and practices by a group of futures researchers and practitioners

2005, p. 1066) emphasise that, instead of forecasting methods to produce single-value deterministic images of the future,

Continuous failures in the use of forecasting methods damaged the reputation of urban planners and seemed to show the impossibility of predicting urban phenomena based on scientific rules and regular patterns.

failing to encompass the use of forecasting methods or foresight tools in the development of their studies.

failing namely to encompass the use of forecasting methods or foresight tools in the development of their studies.

Although this is not equivalent to more traditional and long-term forecasting methods such as Delphi studies or scenarios, it is nonetheless an effective means of guiding the science and technology enterprise in the shorter term.

Classical technology forecasting methods were devised to address incrementally advancing technological systems. These methods keyed on technical system parameters, somewhat more than on socioeconnomi system aspects.

Goodwin and Wright 12, p. 355 argue that all the extant forecasting methods including the use of expert judgment, statistical forecasting,

In addition, all the extant forecasting methods contain fundamentalweaknesses and struggle deeply in grapplingwith the long-term'smultiplicity of plausible futures.

(2011) 292 312.12 P. Goodwin, G. Wright, The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events, Technol.

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