| Forecasting (206) |  |
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| Technological forecasting (574) | |
| Forecasting (206) | |
| Forecasting methods (14) | |
| Technological forecasting (574) | |
Forecasting and Assessment Methodst that was held in Seville on 13 14 may 2004, organised by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of European commission's Directorate General Joint research Centre.
In addition, the idea was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice among technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.
and on how the utility of outcomes can impact the different forms of FTA (i e. technology foresight, technology assessment, technology forecasting, technology and product roadmapping).
Conventional forecasting approaches with their aim of predicting the future were based on a linear understanding of processes of socio-technical change that is simply an inappropriate representation of reality and thus misleading rather than enlightening with respect to informing decisions.
However, although the dominant model of foresight pursues a more modest level of aspiration than forecasting,
465 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 distinct from‘technology forecasting'and the like. 3 This broadening
also earlier technology forecasting approaches like the large Delphi studies introduced in Japan in the early seventies
however, the distinction between foresight and forecasting is useful. 4 See, for instance, the pioneering work by Best
14 where the complex forecasting and assessment type of approach initially 12 Dixit and Pindyck 23 and Copeland and Antikarov 24 have prepared two very useful texts on real options theory. 13 See for instance the emphasis put on learning processes in protected spaces which is core to the approaches of Strategic
Niche Management 25 and Transition Management 26.14 FANTASIE Forecasting and Assessment of New Transport Technologies and Systems and their Impact on the Environment,
explanations and solutions, EURAS Proceedings 2006, Wissenschaftsverlag Mainz, Aachen, 2006, pp. 61 70.40 T. J. Gordon, O. Helmer, Report on a Long-range Forecasting
an academic perspective, Technovation 17 (8)( 1997) 417 426.6 H. J. Duus, Strategic business market forecasting, Strateg.
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 2004, pp. 13 14.28 T. Fleischer, M. Decker,
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 2004, pp. 13 14.29 S. Kuhlmann, et al.
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.10 A. Havas, Terminology and Methodology for Benchmarking Foresight programmes,
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.16 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology Futures analysis:
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.17 M. Ladikas, M. Decker, Assessing the Impact of future-Oriented Technology assessment, Paper 1 in proceedings EU
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.18 Technopolis, et al. Using Logic models, The results of a study exploring how logic models can be used to develop a methodological framework for the high-quality assessment of IST-RTD effects at the Strategic Objective level, Commission Contract No 29000,2006. 19 W. W. Powell, in:
they consider alternative futures (as opposed to e g. forecasting exercises; they are oriented action (unlike e g. academic papers in the tradition of futures studies;
FTA provides a common umbrella for the foresight, forecasting and technology assessment communities. These closely related communities play an important role in guiding policy
but it also directly aims its messages at policy makers responsible for designing more effective strategies for the deployment of public funds for R&d and those responsible for forecasting where and how to do this no small task indeed!
Hierarchical random graphs Architectural innovation Technology forecasting Design 1. Introduction This paper examines a technique suitable for monitoring
Relevant research has approached the problem of forecasting radical technological change with methods for supporting analysis for both decomposition and integration of new technologies.
In addition, the paper outlines several important caveat about the use of these models in forecasting new technology:
so that it can be used for analysis, design and forecasting. If this hypothesis of distributed knowledge bases is correct,
Thus, the hierarchical random graph approach may provide a new forecasting, analysis and design technique for architectural innovation.
We have argued in this paper that many previous technology forecasting techniques have focused only on incremental and dominant designs.
which are most problematic for forecasting, analysis and design. Nonetheless this leaves the form of architectural innovation whereby innovators explore interactions between routine, highly available components,
Q. 35 (1990) 6045 6633.4 A l. Porter, A t. Roper, T. W. Mason, F. A. Rossini, J. Banks, Forecasting and Management of Technology
) 25 33.25 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to foresight processes new participative foresight activities in Germany, J. Forecast. 22 (2 3)( 2003) 93 111.26 F. Berkhout
technology forecasting and technology assessment 1. As noted in Könnölä et al. 2, the gradual paradigm shift in the innovation research
Foresight for Europe, Final Report of the High level Expert Group for the European commission, April 24, 2002, European commission, Brussels, 2002.6 A. Eerola, E. Väyrynen, Developing technology forecasting and technology assessment
(e) Ways to improve understanding of psychological factors that lead to irrational decisions (f) Appropriate levels of aggregation in investigation of forecasting problems.
The central premise of planning is that forecasting is possible. The policy sciences teach us to identify optimum policies by testing a set of prospective policies on models that simulate the real world
and used in forecasting. Now we see that if the system was in a chaotic state,
since many forecasting problems can be investigated at various levels of aggregation, what levels are appropriate?
A Venture in Social Forecasting, Basic books, New york, 1976.9 Y. Masuda, The Information society as the Post-Industrial Society, Institute for the Information society, Tokyo, 1980.10 T. Sakaiya, The Knowledge Value
and methods used in technology forecasting, indeed initially the Japanese studies were called‘technology forecasts 'and were based on US experience of the Delphi method.
and discussed them in light of, for example, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment (Martino 1983; Millet and Honton 1991.
since the 1960s from the first generation of technology-oriented forecasting to the current third-or fourth-generation activities that also include wider social dimensions (Reger 2001;
New technology foresight, forecasting and assessment methods, 13 14 may, Seville, Spain. EU DG Research. 2005. Final Report.
A manager's guide to technology forecasting and strategy analysis methods. Columbus/Richland, OH: Batelle Press.
Journal of Forecasting 22: 129 60. Keenan, M, . and I. Miles. 2008. Scoping and planning foresight.
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, 13 14 may, Sevilla, Spain. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014
200 binnovation indicatorsq. 2 We gratefully acknowledge support of the U s. National science Foundation for"QTIPS-24-Hour Technology intelligence & Forecasting"(DMI-0231650.
Technology Forecasting QTIP can provide empirical measures for certain trend analyses to support growth model fitting
It can also help locate experts to engage in judgmental forecasting.!Technology and Product Roadmapping QTIP serves background information roles well.
J. Watts, A l. Porter, Innovation forecasting, Technological forecasting and Social Change 56 (1997) 25 47.4 N c. Newman, A l. Porter, J. Yang, Information professionals:
From forecasting to foresight processes new participative foresight activities in Germany. Journal of Forecasting 22, nos. 2 3: 93 111.
Durand, T. 2003. Twelve lessons drawn from‘Key technologies 2005',The french technology foresight exercise. Journal of Forecasting 22, nos. 2 3: 161 77.
Edquist, C.,ed. 1997. Systems of innovation: technologies, institutions and organizations. London: Pinter. Eriksson, E. A. and K. M. Weber. 2008.
Journal of Forecasting 22, nos. 2 3: 179 201. Hekkert, M. P.,R. A a. Suurs, S. O. Negro, S. Kuhlmann,
Journal of Forecasting 22, no. 2 3: 129 60. Könnölä, T.,V. Brummer, and A. Salo. 2007.
and merging empirical/analytical methods with stakeholder engagement processes 5. The positioning was aimed at perceived overlapping fields of practice among technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.
forecasting and other dimensions of futures studies remains important even if the field is not ready to tolerate a new collective term. 2 This leads to the second persistent theme.
review of a decade's futures work, Futures 21 (1989) 447 465.4 H. A. Linstone, Corporate planning, forecasting,
of Forecasting 22 (2 3)( 2003) 235 255.33 M. Keenan, Identifying emerging generic technologies at the national level:
the UK experience, Journal of Forecasting 22 (2 3)( 2003) 129 160.34 B. R. Martin, R. Johnston, Technology foresight for Wiring up the National Innovation system.
reflections from a hydrogen Foresight project, Journal of Cleaner Production 15 (3)( 2007) 259 265.39 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to Foresight processes new participative Foresight activities in Germany, Journal
of Forecasting 22 (2 3)( 2003) 93 111.40 J. P. Salmenkaita, A. Salo, Emergent Foresight processes:
the UK experience, Journal of Forecasting 22 (2003) 129 160.15 A. Rip, A j. Nederhof, Between dirigism and Laissez-faire:
forecasting and technology assessment approaches foresight is perhaps the most comprehensive one suitable for providing policy support to address major societal challenges.
and final outcomes 8. The systemic understanding of innovation processes has challenged conventional technology driven forecasting practices and called for new participatory foresight approaches that address also the consideration of diverse perspectives, formation
5 Japan is the pioneer of technology forecasting and foresight, and has completed 8 times technology foresight activities
This moves well beyond the narrow domain basic technology forecasting important though that this. Indeed, understanding the dynamics of technological change is just one part of a broader mandate.
and practice often goes well beyond the narrow domain of technology forecasting. It is oriented to supporting the functioning and development of innovation systems,
when invoking conventional economic models for short-term analysis and forecasting, at least in less turbulent times.
Indeed, each of the sets of tools just mentioned can be used in applications other than FTA in demographic forecasting,
FTA's subfields include technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment, and of course futures research with its emphasis on explicating long-term alternative development prospects.
while many instruments of normative forecasting and planning (e g. relevance trees) are also part of the toolkit.
or even solitary experts sitting at their desks engaged in‘‘genius forecasting''.''Once we go beyond extrapolating specific trends or devising imaginative scenarios based on historical analogy or generalisation from supposed vanguards, towards thinking about innovation systems more generally,
The focus of the Conference was on foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools.
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, 2004, European communities Technical Report EUR 21473 EN. 5 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis:
B Embrace emergence rather than planning and forecasting. B Focus on interactions rather than constituent parts.
rely on external planning and forecasting. They should enable visioning of phase change situations (with no early warning signals) and the resulting changed world.
Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report
Backcasting is considered as an opposite to forecasting, which is a process of predicting the future on the basis of current trend analysis,
As opposite to traditional forecasting, backasting suits well in the study and solving of highly complex,
34 J. W. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technology Forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 251 268.
Keywords Territorial foresight, Scenario design, Urban planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Research paper 1. The oblivion of future studies in urban planning Since its origins in the nineteenth
urban planners tend to focus on forecasting tools, disregarding most foresight methods as frivolous exercises. In fact, our literature review has detected not specific
Wachs, M. 2001),‘Forecasting versus envisioning: a new window on the future'',American Planning Association Journal, Vol. 67 No. 4, pp. 367-72.
It proposes the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight, forecasting and technology assessmentmethods and tools to the legal sphere.
Keywords Law, Future-oriented analysis, Foresight, Scenario planning, Modelling, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction Future and Law 1 are two words that are rarely found in the same phrase.
and risk, neglecting as a consequence the use of forecasting techniques, foresight methods and technology assessment procedures.
forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools to the legal sphere. 2. Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA)‘‘Future-oriented technology analysis''(FTA) was created the term to encompass the different tools
, technology forecasting and technology assessment 3. The JRC-IPTS, through the FTA overarching concept and a series of sponsored biennial seminars 4,
technology forecasting and technology assessment communities, along with the broader field of future studies) have come together to discuss
As Johnston (2008) noted, the objective of the first of these seminars‘‘was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice between technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.''
For a clarification on the differences and similarities among the wide array of terms, methods and approaches that are included in the umbrella term of FTA, such as technology forecasting, technology assessment, roadmapping, technology foresight,
as its interface facilitates data analysis, display of forecasting results and scenario analysis. For further details see Hughes et al.
can be found in a recent double issue of the journal dtechnological Forecasting and Social Changet 8. Generally speaking,
These unique conferences have brought together practitioners from three different communities of foresight, forecasting and technology assessment.
thus limiting the possibilities of forecasting. He continued that if we want to bring the systems approach closer to the real world,
by zooming in on the issue of unpredictability, in line with Linstone's argument on the limitations of forecasting in times of transition between two eras.
NESTS pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools. The authors explore how the 10-step‘Forecasting Innovation Pathways'analytical approach can be systematised through the use of Tech Mining.
They combine qualitative and quantitative tools in aiming to identify potential innovation pathways. The approach proposed is applied to the development of Dye-Sensitized Solar cells (DSSCS),
forecasting and technology assessment research techniques of and for their respective communities. Futures studies are omitted. Derrida's comment,
what are believed commonly to be the metaphors from foresight, forecasting and technology assessment: all have a long history and an equally long and growing catalogue of techniques to use:
Currentftacomponents of foresight, forecasting and TA are simply not able to cope with the welter of information now available to anyone with the wit to look for it nor is FTA able to cope with the increasing complexity of the tasks it faces, often with very significant political interventions and implications.
forecasting and technology assessment are construed often as theory. To search for a philosophical cum theoretical basis to underlie FTA seems to be limited of value.
Journal of Forecasting 22, nos. 2 3: 179 201. Hedgecoe, A, . and P. Martin. 2003.
while relatively accuraat in the short term, forecasting accuracy diminishes in the medium and long terms as political, economic, social,
and published in international journals such astechnological Forecasting and Social Change, Technology analysis and Strategic management, and International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy.
Organization and the future, from forecasting to foresight. In Managing the future: Foresight in the knowledge economy, ed. H. Tsoukas and J. Shepherd, 1 19.
forecasting and technollog assessment are essential associates, both of which bring an element of legitimacy and transparency to the overall decision-making process.
Both forecasting and technology assessmeen provide a more factual and numerical understanding of a business's financial and technical risks
Through its components (foresight, forecasting and technology assessment), FTA has an undeniably arduous role to play.
These kinds of future manuscripts could also be produced with other narrative foresight methods, such as scenarios or‘genius forecasting'.
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Text mining of information resources to inform Forecasting Innovation Pathways Ying Guo a, Tingting Ma a, Alan L. Porter b & Lu
Ying Guo, Tingting Ma, Alan L. Porter & Lu Huang (2012) Text mining of information resources to inform Forecasting Innovation Pathways, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 843-861, DOI:
8 september 2012,843 861 Text mining of information resources to inform Forecasting Innovation Pathways Ying Guoa Tingting Maa, Alan L. Porterb and Lu Huanga*aschool of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of technology, Beijing, China;
btechnology Policy and Assessment Center, Georgia Institute of technology, Atlanta, GA, USA Highly uncertain dynamics of New and Emerging science and Technologies pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools.
Forecasting Innovation Pathways; Newand Emerging science andtechnologies; Tech Mining; nanotechnology; dye-sensitised solar cells, technology intelligence 1. Introduction New and Emerging science and Technologies(‘NESTS')are studied increasingly because of their potentially important‘emerging applications'.
'However, the highly uncertain dynamics of NESTS pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools. Capturing and exploring multiple potential innovation pathways show considerable promise as a way of informing technology management and research policy.
and forecasting workshops. This paper explores the systematisation of the FIP analytical approach through the application of Tech Mining.
FTA TOOLS have expanded from technology forecasting of incrementally advancing technologies (e g. consider Moore's law describing some six decades of continual advances in semiconductor capabilities)( Roper et al. 2011).
and potential users (Step E). Figure 1. Framework for forecasting NEST innovation pathways. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 847 Step J,
and conducting a forecasting workshop. Our FIP approach, which combines qualitative and quantitative tools in the‘Profile,
particularly the study of technology forecasting and assessment. She is focusing on research on emerging science and technology topics.
He and the co-authors are preparing a Second Edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology (Wiley.
Her specialty is science and technology management, particularly the study of technology forecasting and assessment. She is focusing on research on emerging science and technology topics.
Forecasting innovation pathways: The case of nano-enhanced solar cells. ITICTI International Conference on Technological innovation and Competitive Technical intelligence, Beijing.
Integrating technology monitoring, forecasting & assessment with strategic planning. SRA Journal (Society of Research Administrators) 26, no. 2: 21 31.
Forecasting innovation pathways for new and emerging science & technologies. Technological forecasting & Social Change, doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2011.06.004.
Forecasting and management of technology. 2nd ed. Newyork: Johnwiley. Shi, H.,A l. Porter, and F. A. Rossini. 1985.
1. environmental monitoring and forecasting (atmosphere and hydrosphere; 2. estimating resources and forecasting (lithosphere and biosphere;
3. processing and utilising anthropogenic substances and wastes; 4. environmentally safe mining and extraction of natural resources;
various equipment for rescue operations and emergency situations management 66.7 1. 71 Remote monitoring techniques based on space satellite systems 62.5 1. 86 Forecasting
and forecasting the future state of the environment, based on Russian meteorological and natural resources satellites (2015-2020);
Also, the rule of foresight has changed from the previous explorative forecasting to more be come more oriented to strategic planning (Martin, 1995.
The Delphi method is especially useful for long-range forecasting (2030 years), as expert opinions are the only source of information available.
Also, patent documents are used widely as a source for technology forecasting, CTI and for analysis of technology convergence (Kayal, 1999;
while the result from patent analysis for CTI or for forecasting provide a short-term view. Also, survey results of Delphi topics are collective intelligence from the expert interaction of scanned countries
but the forecasting time horizon for the whole foresight activity was set at up to the year 2020, by
Rowe, G. and Wright, G. 1999),‘The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis'',International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15, pp. 353-75.
Rowe, G.,Wright, G. and Bolger, F. 1991),‘Delphi: a re-evaluation of research and theory'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 39, pp. 235-51.
forecasting and technology assessment and thus it is not a discipline with solid, widely accepted theoretical foundations.
Forecasting e g. demographic or environmental changes is also highly relevant for certain policy needs or to enable technology observers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology of interest
whereas Gao et al. 7 propose the development of a new forecasting approach to analysing technology life cycle of a particular technology of interest.
which is currently the major forecasting approach to analyse technology life cycle (TLC), they propose a model to calculate the TLC for a technology based on multiple patent-related indicators.
and moving from forecasting activities and expert-driven identification processes towards the inclusion of expertise from a broader range of disciplines, a wider range of stakeholders and sometimes also the knowledge of lay people.
(which comprises Foresight, Forecasting and Technology assessment), 1 foresight practitioners have concentrated traditionally on participatory methods based on qualitative data,
Another part of the FTA COMMUNITY, constituted by Forecasting and Technology assessment practitioners, holds an opposite standpoint, considering qualitative and participatory approaches as a second best option, to which we are compelled somehow to refer until adequate quantitative methods arise.
A further point to keep in mind is that numbers may create the impression that the future is less uncertain than it actually is. 3 In this respect Linstone 12,13 points out that the possibilities of forecasting may be limited especially when the dynamic,
Goodwin 11 points to the effect of hindsight bias (the tendency to believe that our forecasts were more accurate than they actually were) on forecasting,
Remarkably, evidence stemming from the forecasting communities on cases combining qualitative and quantitative methods is limited rather,
and methods of social scanning and prediction markets could be used to improve professional forecasting and foresight in an era of complex phenomena and disruptive events with high level of uncertainties.
as well as guidance for the 16 If forecasting is used to compare the impact of alternative policy options,
new technology foresight, forecasting & assessment methods, in: JRC Technical Report, EUR 21473 EN, European commission, 2004, Available at:
Within the Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), technology forecasting traces back to the 1950's 4. One of its half dozen
Another important technology forecasting technique 6 is the use of analogies. Herein, one anticipates growth in an emerging technology based on the pattern of growth observed in a somewhat related technology.
J. Banks, Forecasting and Management of Technology, 2nd Edition John Wiley, New york, NY, 2011.6 A l. Porter, M. Rader, Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study
A l. Porter, Innovation forecasting, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 56 (1997) 25 47.15 R. Haupt, M. Kloyer, M. Lange, Patent indicators for the technology life cycle development, Res.
Market Manage. 21 (1)( 1992) 23 31.36 E. Hajime, The suitability of technology forecasting/foresight methods for decision systems and strategy:
Appl. 39 (3)( 2012) 2927 2938.38 E. Hajime, Obstacles for the acceptance of technology foresight to decision makers, lessons from complaint analysis of technology forecasting, Int. J. Foresight Innov.
including Tech Mining (Wiley, 2005) and Forecasting and Management of Technology (Wiley, 2011. Jing Wang is an Associate professor of Huaqiao University.
Her specialty is science and technology management, particularly the study of technology forecasting and assessment. She is focusing on a research on emerging science and technology topics. 407 L. Gao et al./
and obstacles to be overcome to transform evolutionary approaches in useful forecasting tools. The present paper intends to present the state-of-the-art on this debate
and will be seed the and/or the substract for the further development of useful forecasting tools in the technological realm.
or in other words, for forecasting agents'aggregate behavior. The other approach forms the new sub-field of bartificial Lifeq (AL,
Modeling, Simulating and Forecasting Social Change, a Proposal of a Seminar to the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation,
Goodwin and Wright 12, p. 355 argue that all the extant forecasting methods including the use of expert judgment, statistical forecasting,
including technology forecasting, technology intelligence, future studies, foresight, and technology assessment 1. In their own ways each of these approaches is used for analyzing technological developments and their potential consequences.
E. N. Zalta (Ed.),The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 2008.4 W. Ascher, Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy makers and Planners, Johns hopkins university Press, Baltimore, 1978.5 J. D. Sterman, All models are wrong:
The Delphi method is developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method, which relies on a panel of experts.
from the first monitoring and forecasting studies on nanotechnology to the establishment of national nanotechnology programs
but rather also in processes such as technology forecasting, technology assessment and participatory future-oriented studies, involving scientists, policymakers, media,
In this paper, FTA is used as the umbrella term covering subfields such as technology foresight, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping and technology assessment cf. the list in 29 and combining tools, ranging fromquantitative methods
The BMBF commissioned several forecasting studies on nanotechnology-related fields starting in the early 1990s.
the aim of these forecasting exercises was to identify new and promising fields for research funding, to deliver a sound and broad information basis for funding decisions in these research fields
The results of the forecasting exercises were published in technology analyses, summarizing the process and results of the forecasting exercises for nanotechnology in general and for various subfields of nanotechnology,
including fullerenes, synthetic supramolecular systems, nanotubes, and nanobiology. These reports provided information on the technology field
these early monitoring and forecasting activities were followed by an initiative of the BMBF to establish the first six national nanotechnology competence centers with annual funding.
Through the action plan, other federal ministries8 finally joined the German nanotechnology initiative more than fifteen years after the firstmonitoring and forecasting activitieswere conducted.
FTA in the governance of nanotechnology started with forecasting activities and expert-driven identification processes in which expertise was limited by involving actors exclusively from government,
Concepts and Practice, 2008, pp. 154 169.33 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to foresight processes new participative foresight activities in Germany, J. Forecast. 22 (2003) 93 111.34
from forecasting to technological assessment to sustainability studies, J. Clean. Prod. 16 (2008) 977 987.49 TAB, in:
the term‘future-oriented technology analysis'seeks to apply a wider collective identity around several strategic intelligence activities including technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, assessment and modelling but faces a reality where the community regards FTA as the name
Certainly, over time the proportion of papers and discussions preoccupied with forecasting and deterministic roadmapping approaches to the future gave way to a growing awareness and acceptance of other methods,
JRC-IPTS has defined FTA as‘a common umbrella term for technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment'12.
evidence refers to reliable documentation, such as statistics and indicators or forecasting of economic development through macroeconomic modelling.
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