Opinion

Expert opinion (22)
Opinion (153)
Personal opinion (4)
Subjective opinion (17)

Synopsis: Opinion:

To some extent convergence of opinion and broad measures of agreement were voiced that integrating FTA METHODS with established processes of strategic planning is difficult

and voices This session concentrated on the combination of expert opinion with qualitative techniques. There was no discussion of data based systems

and combine their diverse opinions and inputs. Political feasibility is an important prerequisite for policy makers'acceptance of FTA conclusions

and moulding expert opinions into good conclusions remains an elusive goal. 4. Tales from the frontier The contributions to this session had a fairly common theme in that they focussed on the establishment of databases and the associated data collection,

The issue of how to make available the information being created in FTA EXERCISES brought out diverse opinions varying from concerns with intellectual property rights and exploitation of the resources to exponents of open source approaches to such information.

Initially, foresight activities were mainly based on S&texpert opinion, but in line with the broadening of the scope of foresight, the notion of expert has undergone a redefinition.

but rather to map the diversity of opinion. 4 Today, by bringing together in a foresight process not only experts,

In early phases of opinion-building, open consultation and participation are necessary to exchange information,

even if some typical difficulties of foresight processes (e g. number and selection of participants, influence of opinion-leaders, etc.)

In the first phase, National Coordinators invited Researchers in their respective countries to submit research issues through the Internet questionnaire. 8 These questionnaires were implemented by using Opinions-Online decision support tool9

://www. opinions. hut. fi/./489 V. Brummer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 Industrial leaders evaluated issues,

Foresight exercises are ways of obtaining opinions about future developments. Foresight is different from prognosis or prediction.

influenced by the opinions of the other experts. The methodology facilitates a relatively strongly structured group communication process,

and confronting them with the assessment of the average opinion. The problem is how to guarantee for the detection of strategic answers,

On the other hand, other stakeholders suggested that the greater involvement of ministries would also have undermined legitimacy by turning the exercise into an outlet for government policy and opinion.

There is a convergence of opinion, however, concerning the factors necessary for networks to be created and sustained.

and interpreting existing data, information and expert opinions. Creating shared understandings among the stakeholders about the possible future developments is also important in each field;

while future workshops are interactive and expert panels more for addressing expert opinions. Popper 9 lists and describes 33 different foresight and assessment methods altogether.

Consideration of opinions, attitudes, fears, interests and hopes may then be as important as consideration of clear facts.

relevant collaborative networks and future actions. o Diverse future perspectives refer to understanding diverse ideas, opinions and perspectives in priority-setting,

. Young people's interest in certain professions 4. 3. Knowledge society development 4. 3. 1. Opinions regarding the standard of research and technical development in Finland 4. 3. 2

In a second wave nearly 1 year later, they were interviewed once more to consolidate their opinions

and international organisations 1. Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 This article does not represent any official opinion of the European Environment Agency,

but reflects the personal opinion of the authors only. Part of the analysis presented in this paper is based on two internal reports 3. We would like to acknowledge the work of Tom Ling

and provides a platform for voicing conflicting opinions and interests. Furthermore, the overall rationale of scenarioplannnin logic might be at odds with the rationale of policy deliberation:

Because of their overt techno-economic purpose Foresight has relied on the opinions of a relatively narrow body of technologically oriented people.

but so far Foresight has depended on expert technological opinion where inclusivity has been interpreted as seeking opinions from a larger number of the typical experts.

and conflicting scientific opinions 6. Situations where science has nothing to offer; the subject is unknown to science

In addition, innovation research tends to deal in procedures and not the actions of individuals and their subjective opinions with appropriate probability measures.

Others concern psychology and the credence the study sponsors and their managers give to subjective opinions expressed by participants from an ever-widening range of contributors.

and to contribute to as many themes as they wish 2. Acceptance of all participants as opinion givers this raises issues for the tradition of expertise,

7. Trust between organisers and all participants, even among those whose opinions may not be deemed to be‘influential'8. Establishment of a new balance between participants with special expertise

Consequently, the circumstances prevailing at the time of a Foresight study can influence the outcome in ways that remain unknown. 2. Seeking opinions from a mixture of people from so many different levels in the typology will introduce new issues to be resolved to retain credibility between all the participants.

and how that is expressed in the credibility of expert opinion. Foresight sponsors have the task of bridging the outcome into the political world

Foresight programmes will become open to a far wider range of opinion than ever encountered before. While this is clearly the intention

management of the activity will need to deal with much greater volumes of raw opinion of highly variable content and quality.

As indicated above Inclusive foresight programmes will elicit a far wider range of opinion than ever encountered before

and content will depend on behavioural characteristics including personal interests, opinions and value assumptions. Consequently, Ulrich 21 defines CSH as:

which a wider source of opinion ought to be sought from at least a representative sample of the population. 2. The processes involved ought to be designed to enable participation,

the resulting database of aggregate opinion ought to be open to wide access without infringing or diminishing civil and personal liberty. 3. Measurement of an improvement in participation in Foresight should be simple

as the participant group will evolve rather than be selected as in current Foresight practice. 4. 1. 3. Sources of knowledge 7. The heuristic nature of Inclusive foresight places special emphasis on all opinions.

that their opinions have re-entrant value. 8. Knowledge, know-how or opinion relevant to the dynamics of the situation ought to be the judgemental criteria exercised by the programme managers with respect to the evolving population of participants. 9. The heuristic nature of inclusive foresight means that the implementation of proposals ought to be dynamic and relevant

to the notion of amelioration in the context of a cascade of situations and not in the expectation of guarantees of improvement as both amelioration and improvement are relative terms. 4. 1. 4. Sources of legitimization 10.

The population of participants in Inclusive foresight and their knowledge, know-how or opinion relevant to the dynamics of the situation ought to represent, within statistical limits,

Recognition of a distribution of opinions is probably of more use to a policy maker particularly

Critical to public acceptance is the growth of a critical mass of opinion favourable to any particular form of nano artifact and its supporting sciences and technologies:

and civil society to discuss and mobilise opinion). One technology entrepreneur uses the Nanodiablog with a substantive motivation for engagement to improve the product.

Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,

Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,

As a consequence of this, there is often focus on the opinions of so-called‘elite'scientists and industrialists,

Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,

more than 80%expressed a positive opinion of the exercise) and has received also favourable press coverage.

Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,

A shared view of future challenges and a better mutual understanding of potential joint interests and differences in opinion have been achieved,

Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,

but I am of the opinion that development in a municipality is suited not to especially deep reflection concerning all consequences...

Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,

In addition, the panellists were requested to indicate their opinion of whether the focus area was among the most importaan third, the second most important third,

The commercial environment is constantly evolving through the interactions of thousands of variables from market-driven pricing processes to government regulations, from consumer opinion to market competition,

The data points can be events, developments, opinions, research findings, or products that participants believe to be early signals that portend significant changes.

idea-killing behavior and steers the discussion clear of extended exchanges of opinion or philosophical discussions.

Lively exchanges of opinion are not uncommon. Frequent calls by the meeting facilitator for new clusters of abstracts or discussion topics are necessary to mine the month's abstracts as thoroughly as possible for signals of change.

opinions and perspectives in prioritysettting identifying and fostering alternative and competing coalitions and value networks as well as exploring alternative futures

Still, a variety of views and opinions were considered and debated during the process. Fixed The overall design of the process was determined already

and a survey was launched to opinion-formers leaders in business, government, media, NGOS and academia.

and opinions, identify and foster alternative and competing coalitions and value networks as well as identify alternative futures

future perspectives that generate many ideas, opinions and perspectives, which support the specific foreseen decision-making situation or for the formation of strategic partnerships/joint actions.

when there is a real difficulty with applying formal modelling approaches to the topic in question. 2 Such methods allow us to explore the structure of opinion

This sort of knowledge may be little more than a specialised form of opinion poll analysis: many Delphi studies do take this form,

and Miles 33 for a detailed comparison of two different approaches to eliciting expert opinion (cross-impact versus Delphi method).

trend extrapolation, stakeholder mapping, eliciting expert opinion, and so on are among the panoply of FTA METHODS. Indeed, each of the sets of tools just mentioned can be used in applications other than FTA in demographic forecasting,

Taking account of cultural factors, values and opinions, and the like, PKM includes personal modes of exchange

not only about the results of research but also about the views and opinions (preferably well-grounded ones) that participants hold;

and then proceeding to draw on this (critically) in subsequent activities where this formally presented material is added to by information and opinions input by participants,

and Delphi and other methods for eliciting expert opinion are frequently put online. Knowledge management can also draw on social networking

Futures experts (attendees of the FTA 2008 Conference) were invited to state their opinions on these questions by considering the trends, drivers, wilds cards,

Some interesting prospective reversals of current conventional opinions. The frequency distribution of discontinuities and the most widely cited ones are in Fig. 11.

materials and food Democratisation of China Sunspot theory of climate change Privatisation criticised more China implodes due to several political conflicts Diverse opinions on environmental issues Geopolitics

And you have changed your opinion and even changed your actions. Axelrod and Cohen (2001) call it the‘‘shadow of the future''.

‘‘Impossible is just and opinion''.''Some foresight techniques do use Reframing, for example in causal layered analysis, Inayatullah (1990),

the variety of opinions in society as well as the best possible knowledge of what is technologically feasible, economically affordable and socially acceptable.

most often mentioned hindrances in public opinion were cynicism (what a small country such as Finland does,

made of opinions, judgements, arguments and interpretations. The application of fta quantitative approaches to Law should not replace the‘‘human touch''In law,

''As mentioned previously, it is important to keep Law as Law, that is, a human activity of judgements, interpretations, opinions and values,

interactive and communicative process with the aim to contribute to the public and political opinion forming on science and technology related societal aspects 1 like exploitation of potential, dealing with secondary effects,

Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,

unknown knowns and unknown unknowns) that give rise to an over-reliance on subjective opinion. These invade both the qualitative and quantitative pieces of information that are joined to create outcomes for policy and management in all the STEEPV themes (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecology, Politics and Values and Norms.

which formal methods and techniques play a subsidiary role following Wittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.

and the authors conclude that FTA's practical outcomes are underpinned by subjective opinion in many dimensions.

and opinions on the role of FTA in preparing for Grand challenges. Some common lines of thought seem to emerge around the recognition of fundamental uncertainty

Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,

Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,

of three kinds (known unknowns, unknown knowns and unknown unknowns) that give rise to its basis in subjective opinion.

which formal methods/techniques play a subsidiary role followingwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.

subsumed under subjective opinion in many dimensions and will be more so as FTA becomes involved with technologies of great social and commercial complexity.

while conventional methodological matters are placed deliberately in diminuendo in Section 5. An example is given of how subjective opinion,

qualitative opinion and the quantitative information including all its uncertainties? How would the risk of disaster

However, Wittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'needs to be constantly in mind to prevent any FTA becoming simply an exercise in technique manipulation that prevents any useful outcome.

uncertainty and ignorance that are subsumed generally under the title of subjective opinion in many dimensions. It is not the intention to debate the merits of the methods

of which is characterised by behavioural traits, uncertain opinions and ignorance. How individual subjective opinions invade many aspects of FTA needs some clarification.

Savage (1954) distinguishes between three different interpretations of probabillity objectivistic (frequentist), personalistic (with regard to propositions expressing opinion)

and necessary (measurement of the extent that a set of propositions‘of necessity'confirms the truth of another).

The second (subjective opinion) can be either individual or group depending on the situation involved. Cooke (1991), Lipinski and Loveridge (1982) and Amara and Lipinski (1983) have described all similar processes for elicitiin expert (subjective opinion from either individuals or small groups.

The difference between group elicitations (reminiscent of a small scale Delphi without the consensus seeking element) is its‘corporate'nature.

When individual opinions are sought and later combined, the formulation is thought to be nearer to the advisory situations prevalent in companies contemplating market sensitive moves.

An individual expert's opinion on the situation in question takes the form of a probability distribution of Savage's second type:

an aspect that can spread beyond the elicitation of opinion into appreciation of the brief itself.

there can be confusion over the use of the words possibility, plausibility and reality in relation to subjective opinion.

Many of the perceived‘uncertainties'of quantitative information arise from these sources and from the nature of expert opinion:

The references to‘truth'in the matrix are not relevant as FTA depends on subjective opinion, expressed probabilistically, which is influenced heavily by the notions of ignorance.

and sectors of society probabilistically to express their relevant uncertainties How to deepen dialogue with society How to improve governance Because of the dominant role of subjective opinion,

Multi-disciplinary by definition FTA develops understanding of systems and situations in time and space through people's perceptions (a basis for opinions);

Elicitation of opinions and combining them is a central feature in FTA. The following example illustrates how this can be Done for the sake of simplicity,

Interviews are used so often to obtain opinion that the procedure is regarded as mundane, but it is not.

Elicitation of expert opinion is a deep and arduous process. It was invoked in the IFTFS study to gather information for the main parts of the study that later involved scenario generation The elicitation process used facilitated the later combination of quantitative

Seeking subjective opinion about a situation and its future from these three types of expert had to be tailored carefully to each

in it, the interviewees were asked to respond to a set of questions in his/her topic field the responses to whichwould enable a probability distribution to be constructed representing their opinion regarding the topic of the interview.

The final step in elicitation was the combining of the distributions of opinions from several interviewees into a single joint set for later use in constructing scenarios.

Calibration allowed‘correction'of each probability distribution to a common basis that enabled combination of the individual opinions.

and books of unrestrained opinion that rely heavily on‘gut'reaction. FTA is heavily dependent on opinion

and the use of quantitative data that needs verification and due diligence (e g. following the lines of NUSAP (Funtowicz

and cognitive sciences because all analysis is influenced heavily by opinion and all models and surveys are, to an extent,

representations of the opinions and beliefs of their designers (4) The commonly believed metaphors of foresight,

of which is characterised by behavioural traits, uncertain opinions and ignorance. Consequently, FTA needs to dwell more on the nature of individual expertise that enables some individuals to stretch out their appreciation of a situation

Opinion and subjective probability in science. Oxford: Oxford university Press. Funtowicz, S. O, . and J. R. Ravetz. 1990.

Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,

Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,

Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,

Foresight demands thatwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'be in mind constantly.

Equally, Al Haig's dictum that‘vision without discipline is daydream'(Haig 1984) is necessary to prevent the outcomes of foresight becoming too expansive.

Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,

Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,

We illustrate the use of multiple information resources in conjunction with expert opinion to inform FIP, with special attention to the experiences in devising a TDS model

and 4. secure life. 2. 2 Delphi Delphi is characterized by repeated questions for the collective convergence of opinions,

At the same time, diverging interests, opinions and agendas pose challenges to the new and still crystallizing ideas contained in foresight results.

They trigger and facilitate opinion-forming processes within political institutions and involve other relevant stakeholders in a wide-ranging dialogue to deal with societal challenges.

This index shows the relative importance of each topic according to aggregated expert opinion VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 45 New objectives of the study also demanded adjusting evaluation criteria for the technology groups (accordingly to the FS1 results.

this index shows an average estimation of R&d level according to aggregated expert opinion. bcalculated as sum of the number of answers for the two top scores (among the following possible answers:‘‘

''This index shows the cumulative effect of each group evaluating technology according to aggregated expert opinion Figure 1 Support measures for‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''PAGE 46 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1

The overall structure of the project provided opportunities for broad involvement of all stakeholders into priority setting, developing a shared expert opinion concerning preferred medium-and long-term development alternatives,

However, according to summarised expert opinion the FS2 policy recommendations are impossible to realise without solving problems in the management system.

as expert opinions are the only source of information available. Meanwhile, the communication effect of Delphi studies and the value of the process are acknowledged also. 2. 2 Basic information for the scanned Delphi topics The Delphi topics used for sustainable energy are chosen from foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China.

This kind of bias may be compensated for by including opinions from other regions such as Europe or America.

FTA's practical outcomes are characterised by human behaviour under subjective opinion. The subjectivity and associated ignorance due to the choices and decisions made will increase as the FTA begins to deal with more complex and uncertain issues

The information, knowledge and interpretation and resultant subjective opinion of FTA participants are decisive when dealing with grand challenges 3. Thus,

or for the quantitative analysis of qualitative data (such as statistical analysis of stakeholder opinions or networking behaviour. Such exercises push experts in quantitative and qualitative techniques closer to each other,

Scientists (particularly natural scientists and technologists) often tend to consider subjectivity, e g. experts opinions as a disturbance to be avoided,

subjectivity, meant as expert/stakeholder opinion, is effectively a source of creativity and as such should be exploited fully.

In this respect taking into account expert opinions is also important for the identification of key clusters

In their opinion, the results fit their understanding for the development of NBS. Therefore, NBS is still in its growth stage (1997 to the present.

and/or formal expert opinion to check the results and to identify factors apt to alter the course of development that TLC suggests.

My personal opinion is that among the above mentioned methods, cellular automata is the poorest for more T. C. Devezas/Technological forecasting

Res. 109 (1998) 428 441.35 J. W. G. M. van der Pas, J. H. Kwakkel, B. Van Wee, Evaluating Adaptive Policymaking using expert opinions, Technol.

after discussing all signals each project member selected the most surprising and interesting signals according to their personal opinion.

My personal opinion is that, I do not believe in. Participants felt free to put open questions to the project team.

a wide range of opinions and observations is recruited often through interviews or surveys. In the INFU project thiswas done by a literature reviewand screening forweak signals by the project team as described above.

but all of them integrated other experts'and actors'opinions and knowledge. Several co-ordinators decided to reach out to a wider community of actors.

deviant opinion on business, scientific, or political issues is associated with personal antipathies. In societies that have more uncertainty avoidance,

Foresight Users Policy Scenarios Dutch government Local National A b s T R A c T In this paper, we discuss the opinions

In most cases, policy-makers at the local level are of the opinion that local organisations lack experience using scenario analysis methods.

Also, in the‘organizational foresight'study, the various foresight studies of the future carried out by the government departments are designed to form initial ideas and opinions about organisational change.

and reposition of innovation portfolio Provide strategic guidance Identify new business models Consolidate opinions Vision creation Opponent role Challenge basic assumptions Scan for disruptions that could endanger current

This was credited mostly to differences in opinion and expectations. For instance, interviewees stated that the government

Several instruments consolidate opinions and help to identify new business models for either all network partners

and consolidate knowledge and opinions related to water management. The former are those activities that are conducted predominantly between the contract partners RWS and Deltares, the latter within the larger, loosely coupled network of experts.

especially the two aspects‘‘consolidation of opinions''and the‘‘identification of new business models''are exploited within these strategic activities.

‘‘consolidation of opinions''and‘‘identification of new business models''appear to initiate new activities instead of altering strategy.

curve modelling, leading indicators, envelope curves, long wave models Expert opinion Survey, Delphi, focus groups, participatory approaches Modelling and simulation Innovations systems descriptions

This was also done for issues where authors had (very) different opinions. These sets of shared values14 are:

differences of opinion (controversies even) are presented in the scans, along with the evidence each side draws on to make its case,

23 The scenarios aimed to synthesise the insights about potential impacts (including the differences in opinion about the impacts of some trends.

In a RT Delphi, the particiipant not only judge twice but they can change their opinion as often as they like

Although exploratory in nature, the latter reflect major differences of opinion among the stakeholders over the expected and desiire future of the sector.

The opinions of the first author do not necessarily represent those of the European commission. This paper is revised a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technoloog Analysis:

and opinions Initiating action Scientific and technological aspects Scientific assessment: i e. assessing technology options in a transparent manner;

What, in your opinion, are some of the most successsfu assessments of recent foresight exercises? What tools/metrics/parameters work best to measure impacts?

or decentrallized (e g. within a specific ministry or done individually in each agency with no central suppoor or supported by some central foresight body or outside research institute or both) In your opinion, has done your country anything unique that is making foresight work in your conteex

In order to hear the opinion of government authorities and representative leaders from industry and the national system of ST&I, about the system itself, FINEP, its performmanc and future expectations,

Note 1. CGEE's website Delphi and survey tool allows for gathering experts'opinion using questionnaires tailored to the investigation of both broad and narrow topic domains.

'and‘expert opinions'to justify allocating research funding on grounds other than scientific excellence. As a result, they argue,

conduct a broad consultaation in particular utilising the ICSU General assembly as a forum for member opinions including 170.

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