One of the industrial participants spelt out very explicitly that by participating in the process his firm became aware of a mis-perception of the future potentials of the technological trajectory they had pursued so far
and modification of actual policy strategies because the perception and the expectations of actors with respect to future developments have changed as a result of the process.
This coherence is facilitated, for instance, by shared problem perceptions and visions. But, as we will argue in the next section,
We follow a rather wide perception of regulation and include standards and standardisation as elements of the regulatory framework.
Regulatory foresight in our perception is an instrument for regulatory bodies to identify future challenges for their regulatory regimes in advance
It also allows‘non-expert'knowledge and society's perceptions, interests, concerns and fears to be taken into account.
Alignment between people presupposes alignment of perceptions and goals, which does not necessarily mean consensus.‘Perception-alignment'is established
when the parties accept each other's interpretations of their respective motives and goals, which need not be the same.
Perception-alignment reflects the effectiveness of communication, while goalaliggnmen involves both communication and collaboration. In all of this, people's perceptions and concepts such as bounded rationality are crucial.
Bounded rationality (which simply acknowledges that an individual's perception is limited and selective) is determined by limitations of knowledge
and 12 Socio-technical constituencies are defined as dynamic ensembles of technical and social constituents machines, instruments, institutions,
Perceptions and goals may change over time. Two processes thus facilitate alignment within constituencies: consultation and communication concerning the nature of perceptions and goals and the possibility of aligning existing perceptions and goals by maximising collaboration and minimising competition;
an awareness of changing circumstances and their ability to alter existing perceptions and goals, thus generating alignment where none existed before;
As Molina concludes the key is to generate a climate of positive thinking. There seems to be a subtle psychological transition from making positive contributions to the discussions to becoming active members of the constituency.
it is trust, peoples'perceptions, the possibility of their becoming aligned, and peoples'individual characteristics (wishes,
How does vision of the future and perceptions of reality change? Or, more importantly, how do breakthroughs really happen
The exact questions and formulations used can be found in the full barometer report 7. The purpose of the survey is to cast light onto the respondents'valuations regarding technology, perception about current state of affairs,
Index (A t. Kearny) Globalization Index (World Markets Research centre) Society Human Development Index (UN) Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International) Overall Health
9. Ideally, scenario planning helps policy-makers making better sense of changes in their external environment, spotting early warning signals and refining perceptions of existing or emerging problems and corresponding problem-solving strategies 10.
Using scenarios can increase participants'perceptions of their strategic communication and conversation skills. This has been confirmed by studies that gather data on individual participants in a scenario planning project 20.
Here, the focus is being rather on gradually changing perceptions changing mind-sets and building shared understanding.
Exploring the relationship between scenario planning and perceptions of learning organization characteristics, Futures 38 (7)( 2006) 767 777.21 Y. Garb, S. Pulver, S. Vandeveer, Scenarios in society
perception of the boundaries of a situation is another. It is here that Dempster's notion of sympoiesis may be more powerful.
when that is appropriate in their perception; usually possess a deep sense of the fittingness of things, a rare sense of judgement, that leads to self-assurance, self-actualisation, self-expression and a keen awareness of issues and sentiments, often with a world perspective.
This interest is fuelled by the recognition that there is a‘translation problem'appareen in foresight approaches that predominantly rely on broad participatory processes, namely the translation of shared collective problem perceptions and visions into actual decisions of individuua actors and organisations.
but in producing perceptions and insights to that body of knowledge and‘imagineering'novel ways of addressing city sustainability'(Ratcliffe, Krawczyk,
For each driving force, the full distribution of the assessment ratingswas shownto convey information about the variability of perceptions among the panellists.
but use of the new label may then begin to change the self-perceptions and orientations of researchers.
but this was some time after the UK's Royal Society embarked, in 1981, on a series of conferences on the assessment and perception of risk.
Risk and perceptions of it are closely related to fear making the proper understanding of the real physical nature of risk of prime importance to framing regulations where the politics of fear may intrude irrationally.
Regulations are framed to attempt to calm the perceptions of risk and to control or reduce fear
The history of governance is concerned mostly with how the public's perception of technological innovation has grown over time.
At this point there is much force to Whitehead's perception that‘Science is concerned with generalities.
and claims for novel forms of public involvement and for democratisation of knowledge, raise the need to look at how perceptions and values,
and process contribute to governance modes that are more responsive to risk society perceptions, values and apprehensions.
Are conventional technocratic modes of regulation yielding to governance modes that are more responsive to risk society perceptions, values and apprehensions?
religious and team sport identities Changes in health risk perception Ethical investment in development projects to promote sustainability Science & Tech. 46 Maturation of S, T and Humanities relationship
perceptions of Chinese elites, and response of the US toward China's growth Kyoto protocol full implementation Political resistance to economic globalization and deregulation Rising economies demand for energy, electricity drives modernisation
ecological behaviour reverse perception of a resource scarce world Discontinuities in national and international policy approaches toward climate change Breakdown of world order Resource scarcity creates new motivations
or focus group opportunities to probe the differences in perception of discontinuities. 3. 2. 5. 3. Joint assessment of Foresight affiliation and discontinuities.
Such an understanding is in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique generating oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Therefore
i e. being a description of perception rather than a description of reality (Schwartz, 1991), or more simply as reframing the future landscape and potential strategies, options,
This perception of irreversibility (bwe cannot achieve this due to...Q) could be proved false when an actor has the intention to test the irreversibility,
because it R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1096 has changed the perception
in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique that generates oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Research limitations/implications In order to boost the perception of scenario design as an added value instrument for urban planners
In order to reinforce the perception of scenario design as a useful and added value instrument for urban planning
improving the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptiiv events through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights and perceptions;
In Bergson's theory of perception and cognition, the world presents itself to living beings in two essentially different forms.
emphasising the links between possibilities for action and perception, a constructivist view on the importance of active human cognition-creating models of the world, a Darwinian terminology of natural selection,
and qualities that provide the basic building blocks of perception. Without exploring these in any detail
'The direct reference to‘research techniques'accentuates the impression that FTA is approached through an enforced search for techniques to fit perceptions of the work in hand.
and uncertainty 759 Direct observation of objective reality People's perceptions of objective Reality Artificial reconstruction of objective Reality Axiomatic Reason/logic/theorems Normative modelling
object reality, people's perceptions of object reality and artificial reconstruction of object reality. In detail object reality refers to direct observation of the situation
and assumes that there is an objective reality that can be detected people's perceptions of object reality relates to surveys,
interviews or many laboratory experimeents the primary concern is with the perception or abstract representation of reality by individuals exposed to the situation.
Multi-disciplinary by definition FTA develops understanding of systems and situations in time and space through people's perceptions (a basis for opinions);
a high level of perception and awareness of the relevant components of the situation. Persons of thought were the conventional experts who had deep knowledge of matters relating to a particular component of the situation or of a tightly related set of components.
The perversity, according to Merton, is in the discrepancy between the actual state and the collective perception, between, the sound bank and the false rumour.
however, it is not easy to distinguish between the validity of a claim and the collective perception of it (Van Lente 2000;
So, the‘perverse'discrepancy between a claim and the collective perception of it is much less.
The perception of the BMBF as well as the role it should play is reflected also from an external perspective.
With this perception, conventional strength, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analyses are informed by the need to maintain these core competences in the face of the development by competitors of their own core competences and key assets (Hax and Majluf, 1996.
Therefore, it is not possible generate a viable and appropriate technology strategy without a perception of the changing technical capability of our own industry and that of related industries (Powell and Bradford, 2000.
Improving the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptive events through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights and perceptions.
perceptions on the expectations of different audiences, methodological preferences of the (mixed methods) researcher, structure of the research project, different timelines for different method types, skill specialisms, the nature of the data, ontological differences,
in terms of concepts grounded in very basic physical and social perceptions. The more complex and intangible the system
causing shifts in problem perception and priority setting. One result of the above described complexity is a type of uncertainty about the future, an uncertainty
and public perceptions about its risks and future benefits has been analyzed extensively 40,41 and the need for risk governance has been expressed 42.
Experts'Perceptions and Scientific Relations Between Sub-areas, Brussels Luxembourg, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, 1997.22 National science and Technology Council, Nanotechnology, in:
Commun. 27 (2005) 221 239.41 M d. Cobb, J. Macoubrie, Public perceptions about nanotechnology: risks, benefits and trusts, J. Nanopart.
whether the individual perception of the visions by each of the experts corresponded to the comprehensive descriptions of the visions previously developed by the project team.
After discussing the variations of the perception of these visions the project team decided that the slightly differing understandings remained within a tolerable interval.
The aim was to avoid misinterpretations because of hidden signals (blind spots) caused by intra-systemic perception filters of the project team. 2. 4. Prolonged divergence In the initial phase of a scenario building exercise, the environmental scanning,
6) Perception of creativity: The very meaning of being innovative is shifting. Creativity may become a key aspect in all professional activities.
when working in a project consortium) 31 the assessment of coverage of dimensions of change supported the project teamin looking for specific signals of change that had at first been neglected due to perception filters.
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 dominance of the macro-level and the influence of today's perception of consistency were reduced to give room for creative assessment of structural transformation.
because to some extent the INFU perspectives were transcending the underlying assumptions dominating today's perception of innovation.
and transcend perception filters. This is of particular relevance when structural transformations are at stake as these are most prone to be missed out due to intra-systemic perception filters.
In particular in the case of an inductive approach where a large number of micro-level findings need to be structured
technology and innovation policies. 2. 1. Sociologists'and anthropologists'perception of culture Cultural differences and styles are very hard to quantify,
Organisational culture is shared the perception of daily practices within a specific organisational context 13,15. In contrast, national culture relates to people who are within a certain national context.
We also proceeded from the perception that there is no one-size-fits-all'approach to national foresight exercises.
and using their perceptions as a measure of the perceived added value. We draw a distinction between experiences at a local
These research questions imply a clear focus on policy-making in the public domain (see, for example, 15) and on the perceptions of policy-makers,
the perception at the local level was that, in addition to external assistance, policy-makers should also be able to implement
the case of the RWS2020-project, Foresight 12 (5)( 2010) 41 57.32 T. Yoda, Perceptions of domain experts on impact of foresight on policy making:
since these enabled the State representatives to understand the citizens'perceptions regarding political decisions. 3. 1. 3. Positive results To break the strategy defined by the State into operational actions a number of meetings
The established dialogue was important to increase the perception of democracy among those involved. Moreover
which allow a shared understanding of individual actors'capabilities, needs and perceptions, as well as mutual learning and experimentation. Ultimately, this process shall lead to increased legitimacy, ownership and transparency of decisions across the value chain.
but also architects, people from advertising and art, secondary school children and students to provide a‘‘fresh perception of an appropriate future water policy''49.4.1.1.
what has changed in (our perception of) future issues over a period of time. We can conclude with an example of an analysis by the joint scan.
The interviews were designed also to elicit the institutions'perception of what constitutes foresight success. Organizations
i e. more comprehensive policy content, more evaluation of policy through debate and higher perception of democratic legitimacy Decisions taken:
The interviews were designed also to elicit the institution's perception as to what constitutes foresight success. Foresight organizations
It is defined by Habegger (2010) as a deliberate attempt to broaden the‘boundaries of perception
and limits associated with their culture, knowleddge training and perceptions and beliefs. The methodologgica approach must induce out-of-the-box thinking, by the cumulative introduction of different visions on the subject, open discussions and the use of creative methods.
In this sense, shaping the future from the perception of present opportunities is, broadly speaking, known as foresight.
or share perceptions, free from prejudice, cultural influence, and reasoning processes. This concept requires that experts
In addition, this methodological approach was based on the perception that decision-making emerges from a negotiaatio between multiple actors.
This perception is the key point of the forsight methodology, which can be defined as a:..
resultiin from discussion and commitment among key stakeholdders expanding the perception of strategic options among the decision-makers.
trends in public perception and flows of information; technological and commerciia strategies (long term perspective; financing mechanisms;
5. 3 Perception Perception is an intentional process for gathering internal and external perceptions and,
In this case, several ways of gathering stakeholders'perceptions were employed. In order to hear the opinion of government authorities and representative leaders from industry and the national system of ST&I, about the system itself, FINEP, its performmanc and future expectations,
The main challenge is to introduce long-term perception and analysis to foster strategic foresight of interest to the state more than a given government structure.
They require broader changes in human perceptions and behaviour, as well as social innovations promoting non-technological solutions.
For the more creative function it is necessary to realise that the shaping of emerging issues is a social activity where foresight intelligence is shaped (re by the perceptions,
But one can also argue that the very remit of horizon scanning is to challenge the mindsets of esteemed incumbents whose perceptions may reflect well-established evidence rather than surprising interpreetation of incipient developments (Taleb 2007.
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