Indicators

Indicator (274)
Innovation indicator (10)
Performance indicators (6)
Technology indicator (21)

Synopsis: Indicators:

identification of collective pathways (multiple backcasting) A common type of backcasting work in a multiple framework scenarios context is to identify bifurcation points and early warning indicators.

and technology indicators and enables the identification of possible fields which may cause challenges for the regulatory framework and the regulatory bodies.

Indicators; Delphi survey 1. Introduction 1. 1. Background In the last few years, the issue of regulatory impact assessment (RIA) has become very attractive, in particular among European policy-makers.

indicator-based approaches surveys Delphi studies. 3. Methodologies 3. 1. Indicator-based approaches 3. 1. 1. Introduction and definition New developments in science and technology

and traced by different indicators. These indicators allow the creation of comparisons between scientific and technological fields, between countries, organisations,

and over time. The most important science and technology indicators are publications in scientific journals and patents 20.

The former indicator reflects better the activities in basic research whereas the latter covers the performance in applied research and development.

One rather new indicator 21 are released technical standards by formal standardisation bodies. Since standardisation is a kind of industry self regulation,

it may be substitutive to, complementary to, or even part of the regulatory framework. Fig. 2 gives an overview of the science and technology indicators.

The use of indicators to perform regulatory foresight exercises is just beginning. Since research activities only being performed in basic research are less likely to create challenges for the regulatory framework in the near or mid-term future

patent indicators are suited better to perform regulatory foresight exercises in the sense of identifying dynamic fields of technology.

Patents indicate the emergence of possible technologies, which are likely to be introduced later into future markets.

which is an indicator of an emerging field. Since there are numerous regulatory challenges triggered by the dynamics in science and technology

and technology indicators in order to explain future challenges for regulatory authorities, including standardisation organisations. Blind 25 shows, based on international and inter-sectoral cross-section data, that the output of formal standardisation bodies can be explained significantly by the patent applications as a reliable indicator for the dynamics in the respective technologies.

For Germany, he was even able to show in time series models that the dynamics in patent applications is reflected in the output of standardisation documents 21.

Very illustrative examples of the relevance of patents as early indicators for upcoming standardisation activities are the case of GSM 26.

and innovation activities may challenge the existing regulatory framework and Fig. 2. Science and technology indicators (Source: Blind 21 modifying Grupp 24). 502 K. Blind/Technological forecasting

Whereas standardisation activities are connected meanwhile to science and technology indicators in a reliable way 21, the link between science and technology indicators and indicators describing the regulatory framework is established not yet.

This deficit is caused by a significant lack of regulatory indicators and especially of respective time series and of rather differentiated sub-categories in regulation.

Furthermore, not all new developments in science and technology, but especially those with possible impacts on health, safety, the environment and on the functioning of markets require an adjustment of the regulatory framework.

and especially technology indicators are a possible source to detect challenges for the regulatory framework in the future. However this is a rather new approach,

and technology indicators are not sufficient. It is necessary to focus, in a second step, on the regulationreleevan aspects and also to make use of the information about the stakeholders active for regulatory action in a potential new field.

Science and technology indicators are easily available in publicly provided or commercially distributed databases. However, the methodological challenge is to meet the adequate level of specification and differentiation of the technology indicators,

which fits to the differentiation of the regulatory landscape. The methodological approach is rather innovative and therefore neither broadly applied nor accepted.

Data requirements/indicators: The simple quantitative use of science and technology indicators in order to detect future challenges for the regulatory framework is not sufficient.

Within potential technological fields relevant for future regulation, regulation-relevant contents and possible stakeholders have to be identified,

The scope of science-and technology-based indicator approaches is certainly in detecting possible fields

However, the identification of specific regulatory issues and even solutions cannot be achieved by applying simple indicator-based approaches.

Data requirements/indicators: The main advantage of surveys is that they allow the consideration of very specific regulatory challenges in the future,

which cannot be covered by indicator-based methodologies. Hence, they are able to provide unique data in this respect.

and lead to representative results, the data can be combined with indicator-based approaches representing the universe in science and technology.

Data requirements/indicators: The application of the Delphi method to the issue of regulations and standards requires the development of questionnaires,

Especially the use of science and technology indicators to detect future challenges for and fields of regulations is developed not yet.

Consequently, the combination of indicator-based approaches, which allow at least the identification of stakeholders in science

Stakeholders from the user and even the consumer side are much more difficult to select based on the presented indicator methodologies

and assessment of regulatory foresight methodologies Methodology Type Data requirements Strengths Limitations Indicators Quantitative also providing qualitative information Adequate science

and technology indicators combined with qualitative data Systematic approach Only quantitative data is not sufficient to detect emerging fields of regulation Comparison across technologies,

who also cannot be identified by the use of science and technology indicators. The use of Delphi studies for regulatory foresight is faced with the similar strengths

which address regulation-specific dimensions, like possible implications on competition, indicators, like regulatory indicators, and stakeholders, like regulatory bodies.

The new developed systematic approach to identify future fields for standardisation combines both an indicator-based approach with a Delphi exercise

A promising approach however is building mapping tools based on underlying patterns and indicators of the dynamics of emergence.

The concept of emerging irreversibilities combines emerging structure (as in path dependency literature) with agency (as in path creation literature) by looking at indicators of alignment

Therefore we would claim immediate usability as a positive impact indicator. At the level of Frontiers the tool has been taken up in official documents as MPM-1 was included in the first round strategic planning document known as the Frontiers Roadmap for 2006/2007.

This acknowledgement is another positive impact indicator. Further developments of MPM-2 will be included in the following evolutions of the roadmap,

using several indicators on HE performance, can also influence national and regional HE policies. Also indirectly and less manifestly the various EC funded projects and expert groups on higher education can also shape these policies. 5 ERIA is understood throughout this paper as the set of all relevant actors of RTDI processes in the EU

and especially that of the government sector, is higher in the less developed countries (Figs. 1 2). Third, output indicators, such as publications, citations,

Furthermore, this sector is often less visible in public indicators (such as the number of scientific publications

measurement and evaluation beyond the traditional academic indicators Grants offered by universities are designed both to nurture talents and foster cohesion Inferior performance and a weakening position vis-à-vis the leading Triad

A closer look at various R&d indicators clearly shows however, that universities are not predominant research performers in the developed OECD (and EU) countries.

M. Thorne, ed.,Foresight, OST, DTI, London, 1999.38 EC, Third European Report on Science & Technology indicators 2003:

Towards a Knowledge-Based Economy, Office for Official Publications of the European communities, Luxembourg, 2003.39 OECD, Main Science and Technology indicators, OECD, Paris, 2006.40 M. Thorne (Ed.),Universities

Relying upon regular inputs of strategic technology indicators across a range of key competitive indices, and complementing these with information from future-oriented stakeholder surveys,

we chose to average the ordinal preference values that the different interest groups attributed to each option in each scenario as an indicator.

In addition to performance analysis based on ex-post indicators the barometer includes the questionnaire of the views and visions of the future development by relevant national actors.

Innovation policy Science and Technology indicators Barometer Future-oriented knowledge 1. Introduction A growing number of different international comparison systems of the economic and innovation performance of nations have emerged within a decade 2

Comparisons are based on a number of different indicators, composite indicators or survey based studies providing comparisons in a wide range of fields like economy, society, education, innovation system, or sustainable development.

Although useful in benchmarking of country performances indicators, if poorly constructed, can convey misleading policy messages 1,

2. For example composite indicators illustrate complex and sometimes even elusive issues and they often seem easier to interpret by the Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 Corresponding author.

E-mail address: torsti. loikkanen@vtt. fi (T. Loikkanen. 0040-1625/$ see front matter 2009 Published by Elsevier Inc. doi:

10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.011 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change general public than finding a common trend among many separate indicators.

Accordingly composite indicators must be seen as starting points for initiating discussion and attracting public interest 1, 2. Finland has improved her positionamong developed nations according to several internationalperformance comparisons since the latter part of 1990s,

For example, one problem of comparisons based on composite indicators is that they give a backward looking mirror perspective,

Fromthe start TEK included in the barometer both a comparative study of reference countries, based on indicators of past development,

so that the comparison of indicators of latest exercise to those of previous barometers remains possible. 2. Theoretical framework

and methodology Technology barometer is a societal indicator instrument with a strong emphasis on the innovation environment.

In technology barometer this challenge is solved by dividing the exercise first into a comparison of the performance of the Finnish innovation system with selected nations on a basis of available international indicators

Indicator-based country comparisons reveal the strengths, weaknesses and related possible areas for intervention and policy-making,

and making interpretations and policy implications on the basis of the barometer results. 2. 1. Theoretical framework It is important for composite indicators,

or any indicator system in that case, to have a sound theoretical and methodological basis 1,

The indicators of technology barometer are structured correspondingly among different development stages of a modern society, from an information society into a knowledge society and from the knowledge society stage towards a knowledgevaalu society and towards the society fulfilling the requirements of sustainable development.

each containing three indicators (Fig. 1). In the information society, information production, processing, dissemination and exploitation play a central role in all societal sectors.

and corresponding indicators are basic education and schooling and the skills and knowledge of the general public in a nation,

In technology barometer, the indicators of knowledge society assess the gearing of the human and intellectual capital investments towards science and technology

The indicators on knowledge-value society focus on entrepreneurship and venturing, innovation networking, and adaptations of innovative practices in a nation.

The indicators of societies fulfilling the requirements of sustainable development are social values, environmental responsibility and environmental systems.

The technology barometer measures the objectives of sustainable development by three indicator entities social cohesion in the society in question, environmental protection actions taken by businesses and authorities,

In conclusion, an indicator study of the technology barometer comprises 12 sub-indicators providing an index-type key value indicating the state of technology at a given time.

The indicator-based data can be used for the generation of index figures to display the nations'techno-scientific base and level of societal development in comparison with the reference group.

UK and USA. 2. 2. Computation techniques There is an ongoing discussion of the merits of different techniques applied in indicator-based comparisons

and related construction of composite indicators 1. Methodological issues need to be addressed transparently prior to the construction and use of Fig. 1. Internal structure of technology barometer. 1179 T. Loikkanen et al./

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 composite indicators to avoid datamanipulation andmisrepresentation 1. OECD publications 1,

and challenges in constructing composite indicators (Appendix A presents examples of composite indicators). In the technology barometer the computational procedure is as follows.

Each partial area is measured by using a combined indicator in order to calculate an arithmetic average value of several statistical indicators'normalised values between-2 and+2. For example,

Techno-scientific competence (pages 17 19 in Technology barometer 2007,7) includes the demographic group of people aged 25 64 with higher education qualifications, the share of new graduates in techno

The aforementioned indicators are summarised in order to obtain a weighted index figure that shows the compared countries'ratings in terms of their techno-scientific competence.

In the same way other combined composite indicators determine Finland's proportional rating compared to the reference group countries in different areas of technology barometer (the content of Technology barometer 2007 is presented in Appendix B

). Besides the indicator-based comparative analysis the technology barometer includes a forward-looking survey of future expectations of relevant target groups.

and interpret interpreted in parallel with the results of indicator-based comparisons. Together these analyses give an all-inclusive understanding of the present state and future perspectives of techno-scientific development of the nation.

The combination of the indicator-based comparative study and the future-oriented survey into one instrument creates a unique platform for the further analyses of the economic

and innovation performance of the nation. 3. Results of technology barometer 3. 1. Indicator-based comparison Statistical indicators collected from the eight countries through OECD

A closer look into the contents of the various sub-indicators provides interesting and useful information.

In the barometer report the sub-indicators are weighted equally for each country. However, should one want to set different priorities to some sub-indicators,

the fully transparent method does not prevent this in any way. In the first three implementation rounds of technology barometer all reference group countries appear to have specific profiles of their own with strong characteristic features.

When assessing societies by information society indicators the Nordic countries particularly Finland and Sweden excel (Fig. 2). This is partly explained by vigorous investments in the development of intellectual capital.

Judging by the indicators of the next phase, knowledge society, the Nordic countries led by Sweden, retain their strong positions albeit with smaller margins,

A look into the knowledge-value society indicators opens up a significantly different picture. Here USA

Scoring well in this section correlates strongly with the country's rating in widely used indicators of material wealth,

According to the indicators of sustainable development Sweden, Denmark and The netherlands proved to be leading of the rated economies followed by Finland.

and the barometer publications consist of a lot of complementary and comparative data and analysis of considered indicators.

7. The synthesis paints a picture of the country's progress in each indicator of two recent technology barometers.

In Fig. 3 the indicators depicting the country's longstanding above-average and further strengthening position are located on the upper right.

and knowledge management. The indicators depicting an above-average but possibly deteriorating position are located on the upper left.

The indicators depicting below-average position of Finland are located below the centre line. The weakest partial area proved to be the exploitation of ICT.

Compared to the previous indicator studies (Technology barometer 2004 and 2005 positive development was observed in entrepreneurship and openness to internationalism. 1180 T. Loikkanen et al./

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 3. 2. Survey study of future visions In addition to indicator-based comparison the technology barometer instrument includes a survey about people's expectations regarding the future development trends.

and diversifies the results of the indicator study by allowing the mutual comparison of the four respondent groups'views

and results of indicator study obtained in 2005 and 2007. Standard statistical practices such as the Mann Whitney U test, were applied to analyze the results.

The enquiry was divided into four parts in accordance with the partial indicators: competence and knowledge generation, knowledge society development, innovative society and sustainable development.

and related indicators are the level of investment, entrepreneurial activity and the impact of technology development on the quality of life.

Indicator-based information being backward looking by nature, the survey supplements the barometer by providing a forwardloookin element to complete the overall view.

allowing the identification of changes occurred in the course of time both in indicator study as well as in survey study.

Recent relatively radical changes of Finnish innovation policy are challenging data basis and indicators of research and innovation,

and novel indicators to be included in the barometer. In Finland, the sectoral research system of government administrations will be renewed,

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 indicators. Moreover, the process of developing Finnish national strategic centres for science, technology and innovation is underway in the technology fields with future importance for businesses and the society.

All these changes pose newchallenges to indicator and survey studies of technology barometer. The further development of barometer to respond to the above mentioned challenges is already in process.

Development of comprehensive indicators is time-consuming requiring a fair amount of resources as well as a widespread contact network within the society.

Also, the European commission produces several indicator and barometer type scoreboards and publications. With regard to the development of international comparisons the conclusions for the moment could be that at this stage it is important to let all flowers bloom in this field.

Appendix A. Examples of composite indicators Source: JRC (2002) and compilation by OECD. Area/name of composite indicator Economy Composite of Leading indicators (OECD) OECD International Regulation Database (OECD) Economic Freedom of the World

Index (Economic Freedom Network) Economic Sentiment Indicator (EC) Internal Market Index (EC) Business Climate Indicator (EC) Environment Environmental sustainability Index (World

Economic Forum) Wellbeing Index (Prescott-Allen) Sustainable development Index (UN) Synthetic Environmental Indices (Isla M.)Eco-indicator 99 (pre consultants) Concern about environmental problems

(Parker) Index of Environmental Friendliness (Puolamaa) Environmental policy Performance Index (Adriaanse) Globalization Global Competitiveness Report (World Economic Forum) Transnationality Index (UNCTAD) Globalization

in Knowledge-based Economy (EC) Performance in Knowledge-based Economy (EC) Technology Achievement Index (UN) General Indicator of Science and Technology (NISTEP) Information and Communications technologies

society 1. Introduction 2. Key results 2. 1. Barometer structure 2. 2. Key results 2. 3. Discussion 3. Indicators 3. 1

on constructing composite indicators. Methodology and user guide. OECD Statistics Working papers 2005/3, OECD, Paris, 2005.2 M. Freudenberg, Composite indicators of country performance:

a critical assessment. STI Working Paper Series 2005/3, OECD, Paris, 2005.3 M. Naumanen, Tekbaro Teknologiabarometri kansalaisten asenteista ja kansakunnan suuntautumisesta tietoon perustuvaan yhteiskuntaan

Although not an official body, the Nanodiablog community is deemed a high quality indicator of the populace (in any case the populace who takes an interest) and principles such as precaution, inclusiveness (transparency), integrity (protection for whistle blowers), ongoing

This can be seen as a stakeholder endorsement of the approach (which is an important indicator how well workshops like these are working.

The COST A22 Action on Foresight methodologies and the appearance of several journals dedicated to this area are just a few indicators of this.

from an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.

To do so requires developing templates of innovation indicators to answer standard questions. Then, one can automate routines to generate composite information representations (bonepageersq that address the issues at hand, the way that the target users want.

A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1072 Innovation indicators are rooted empirical measures in models of how technological innovation proceeds.

In our framework, these indicators reflect one of three main types of MOT information: technological maturation (life cycle status), contextual influences and market potential 3. The innovation indicators help answer MOT questions.

Our list of some 200 indicators is not exhaustive, but it suggests particular indicators for each MOT question.

One would adapt these to one's data sources and managerial concerns to posit particular indicators.

We emphasize that pre-specifying the empirical indicators for selected MOT questions and issues is vital for QTIP to work.

Having standard information dramatically enhances managerial receptivity:!Standard information becomes familiar information.!Familiar information becomes credible information.!

Credible information gets put to use in decision-making.!Information that is used gets requested bnext timeq.!

and understand each component indicator, and know what to look for. Accompanying this bone-pagerq would be the analyst's interpretation.

box (lower right) spotlights several indicators of technological advance: o publication and patent activity relating to the candidate hot topic (bnano-comboq-nano-surfaces

o another indicator of how hot a research area is the ratio of conference to journal publication relatively low for this subtopic in comparison to the larger research domain we might want to explore this discrepancy with our subject experts,

in order to be able to characterise them with appropriate indicators. In the first place the bipolar dimension of convergence/divergence should be substituted by a notion of pattern of growth that encompasses additional archetypes of transformations of‘‘bodies of knowledge''merging, death, birth...

Presentation at the 2nd PRIME Indicators Conference on STI Indicators for Policy Addressing New Demands of Stakeholders, Oslo, 28 30,may 2008. 47 A. Bonaccorsi, The dynamics of science in the nano

A series of methodological options, including scientometric indicators, surveys and Delphi studies are reviewed in the light of experience.

identifying turning points and indicators of change, developing narratives of future histories and accounts of affairs at a future point in time in a way enabling comparison across break out groups, and so on.

Tools and standards to support business sustainability The GRI Sustainability Reporting Guidelines have created performance indicators (both quantitative and qualitative),

The indicators have emerged from the combination of the GRI and the UN Global Compact Initiative (UNGCI) in the GRI G3 guidelines. 3 The UNGCI, launched by the United nations in 2000 in partnership with business,

somewhat noisy and generally socially situated indicators of change in trends and systems that constitute raw informational material for enabling anticipatory action.

but not confirmed changes that may later become more significant indicators of critical forces for development, threats, business and technical innovation.

Promoting Action for Sustainability Through Indicators at Local Level in Europe), INTELCITIES (IST-FP6) and REFORM (Rok-FP6),

and Indicators, Center for International Forestry Research, Jakarta. Mishan, E. J. and Quah, E. 2007), Cost Benefit Analysis, 5th ed.,Routledge, London and New york, NY.

For instance, the growing attention for a certain subject is an indicator for an emerging irreversibility. Fig. 1 shows the growing attention in journals for a certain topic and indicates that the term dnanotubest was used increasingly in the titles of scientific articles (extracted from the Picarta database.

as indicators of emerging irreversibilities. R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1097 technological field, with its dedicated journals, conferences and communities.

Functional implications should provide plenty of clues for the establishment of a set of parametric indicators that will measure urban development impacts.

This goal may be achieved by analysing the in depth implications of each future scenario for functional systems, parametric indicators and spatial patterns. 4. 2 Step 2:

determining parametric implications Once functional implications have been determined, a set of parametric indicators related to standard sustainability issues (Kates et al.

determining spatial implications After parameterizing and projecting a set of sustainability indicators, the spatial implications of each scenario can be displayed with graphic tools.

I Main scenarios indicators 2025 Indicators Measurement unit 2010 Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Analytical methods and tools used for estimating indicators Society Population growth K

Goals, indicators, values, and practice'',Environment, Vol. 47 No. 3, pp. 8-21. Meadows, D. 1998), Indicators and Information systems for Sustainable development, The Sustainability Institute, Balaton Group, Montpelier, VT.

Millennium Project (n d.),available at: www. millennium-project. org (accessed 16 september 2011. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2001), Les lignes directrices du CAD Strate'gies de de'veloppement durable, Organisation for Economic Co

While RIA evaluations usually employ indicators case studies and surveys as the most commonly used approaches (Blind, 2006), FTA would add to this methodological list other approaches that could render the evaluation of current laws,

The paper presents and develops three methodological approaches (indicator-based approaches, surveys and foresight studies Delphi methodology and scenarios) that are adequate to conduct regulatory foresight,

From an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.

From an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.

verifying and reporting the business performance improvement through established and specific indicators so that one can redefine its strategy and shape a new plan for the next cycle of improvement.

and indicators along the network and thus create individual and cooperative competitive advantages Operation The business principles

and evaluate the obtained results based on developed indicators. This will enable the organisation to make an assessment about whether

Sci. 16 (4)( 1998) 322 346.8 K. W. Boyack, K. Bfrner, Indicator-assisted evaluation and funding of research:

Dr. Boyack's current interests and work are related to information visualization, knowledge domains, semantics, metrics and indicators, cognition,

We seek innovation indicators (i e. empirical measures to gauge technological maturation and prospects for successful applications.

Diversity and network coherence as indicators of interdisciplinarity: Case studies in bionanoscience. Scientometrics 82, no. 2: 263 87.

Curran, C. S. and Leker, J. 2011),‘Patent indicators for monitoring convergence examples from NFF and ICT'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 78, pp. 256-73.

VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 71 Griliches, Z. 1990),‘Patent statistics as economic indicators:

they propose a model to calculate the TLC for a technology based on multiple patent-related indicators.

and assessing patent-based TLC indicators using a Nearest Neighbour Classifier, which is used widely in pattern recognition,

at the same time, the improved availability of S&t and innovation indicators and the advances in quantitative methods provide more input for quantitative analysis;

Examples of current and upcoming FTA practices Output of qualitative approaches as input to quantitative approaches New indicators:

Qualitative data can provide additional evidence to quantitative models by inclusion of new indicators created from quantified expert judgments.

of which were compared to the findings of a quantitative calculation of performance indicators. 3. 2. Use of technical and methodological interfaces that facilitate interaction A second type of exercise uses intermediaries as interfaces between the two approaches.

(whether it is a modeller choosing a functional form or an indicator, or a foresight practitioner identifying the right stakeholders to invite to a workshop).

Obviously, such endeavour would require the existence of both good performance indicators and the identification of correlations and causal relationships between the scores on the indicators and the anticipatory approaches applied.

The Handbook of Technology foresight, Concepts and Practicesedward Elgar, UK, 2008.37 C. S. Curran, J. Leker, Patent indicators for monitoring convergence examples from NFF and ICT, Technol.

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