identification of collective pathways (multiple backcasting) A common type of backcasting work in a multiple framework scenarios context is to identify bifurcation points and early warning indicators.
But a type of backcasting more distinctive for AF is to identify a best possible variant of each framework scenario
this stagewise backcasting of the scenario pathways allows also discussing the appropriate timing of policy and other measures,
By developing consistent pathways, the backcasting exercise represents a second level of testing the credibility of a scenario.
Methodologically, backcasting tends to rely on qualitative methods in order to capture the full range of aspects that can potentially come into play in the course of a scenario pathway,
e g. by using backcasting methods. More precisely, a series of actions can be determined, which are likely to increase the probability of achieving the desired future.
In the action phase, technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios and others are useful methods to disseminate the visions of the future.
Possible and potential futures are examined by applying, for instance, scenario, backcasting or roadmapping methods. Among other methods and practices in the field are constructive technology assessment
SWOT analysis, benchmarking, expert panels (new knowledge creation) Technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios (visions of the future) Constructive technology assessment,
modeling techniques and backcasting) may bring to three specific legal fields: legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement.
Backcasting scenarios for Finland 2050 of low emissions Sirkka Heinonen and Ville Lauttama ki Abstract Purpose The objective of this paper is to present an example on how futures studies methodologies,
especially backcasting, can be used to assist public policy formulation. Backcasting is particularly interesting method in this context,
since it allows the key characteristics concerning the state of the future to be fixed according to the goals policymakers have set to achieve.
progression and the results of the backcasting exercise of the Finnish Prime minister's Office. Findings The backcasting methodology
as applied in the exercise presented in this paper, is a useful tool in public policy formulation. It is important to note,
Originality/value Even though backcasting seems to be suited very well for discussing and designing alternative ways of achieving predetermined policy goals,
the foresight exercise was about forming different backcasting scenarios to the desired future. The approach of using backcasting was predetermined also specifically.
This method fits very well for the use of public decision-makers since it allows comparing and reflecting between different policy alternatives that all are able to produce the determined development goals.
One specific type of scenarios is backcasting. The backcasting approach, applied in this scenario exercise, is a scenario coming back from the future to the present.
A classical predecessor of modern backcasting is Edward Bellamy (1951) with his Table I Progress of the scenario process Phase Time Method Goal Material gathering and final design of the study September 2008 Literary review,
environmental scanning Review on the background reports commissioned by the Prime minister's Office, specifying the end future state that the development paths are aiming and based on this material,
Backcasting is considered as an opposite to forecasting, which is a process of predicting the future on the basis of current trend analysis,
''Backcasting, instead, envisions futures from the opposite direction‘‘from then to now''.''Its aim is to illustrate the logical path
Backcasting is thus a normative method: it sets a preferred goal (Ho jer et al. 2011, p. 11.
backcasting aims to liberate images of the future from today's mental fixations and dominating trends.
Backcasting scenarios can thus be called‘‘transforming normative scenarios''.''Ho jer et al. 2011, pp. 11-12.
Backcasting scenarios are usually relatively long-term (20-100 years)( Robinson, 1990, p. 820), which in itself helps thinking outside current trends
backcasting suits especially well for solving of environmental issues, as they deal with deeply habitual behaviour and complex connections between social, political, environmental and economic factors.
The backcasting process can be divided roughly into two basic phases. First a desirable future end state is imagined and visualised, not as a continuation of present trends,
Although backcasting tries to break free from the constraints of today, in formulating the path from the future to present external factors need to be taken account (Robinson, 1990, pp. 830-831).
A recent current in backcasting theory and practices has been adding participatory elements in the backasting process.
The preordained backcasting scenario approach was notable in this foresight process in two senses: 1. by their nature backcasting scenarios are typically normative (target orientated),
i e. they are adopted in search for prerequisites for preferred futures (Robinson, 1982); and 2. growing interest towards backcasting scenarios had been shown in Finland,
but very few exercises have actually been carried out. The backcasting approach has frequently been used in countries like The netherlands, Canada, Australia (e g.
Dunlop, 2009), and Sweden (e g. A°kerman 2011. Backcasting has been applied especially for climate, energy and transport scenarios (see, e g.
Bo rjeson et al. 2006. First round of Delphi questionnaire The process was kicked off with the first round of a Delphi questionnaire.
Conclusions The backcasting process depicted in this article produced four different scenarios for climatically sustainable emission level
While, in line with the idea of backcasting method, all the scenarios are against current trends, they are still quite predictable (energy efficiency,
The scenario implications show that by encouraging participants to think of discontinuities the backcasting process can help imaging alternative futures
Further developing of participatory elements in backcasting processes could increase their potential for enabling alternative futures thinking even more.
Backcasting is used often in policy planning owing to its normative nature. This case shows some of the problems caused by connections to the decision making apparatus. Firstly,
A backcasting approach including international aviation'',doctoral thesis, Royal Institute of technology, Stockholm. Bellamy, E. 1951), Looking Backward 2000-1887.
Robinson, J. 1982),‘Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis'',Energy Policy, Vol. 10 No. 4, pp. 337-44.
recent progress in the use of participatory backcasting approaches for sustainability research'',Technological forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 78, pp. 756-68.
modelling techniques and backcasting) may bring to three specific legal fields: legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement.
This modus operandi goes by the name of backcasting a method according to which the desired future is envisioned first and only after this,
scenario planning, backcasting, modelling systems and simulation platforms) offer a number of important advantages when applied to the legal context.
Still within the field of lawmaking, modelling systems could be combined with other FTA METHODS, such as backcasting and future verification procedures.
On this point, backcasting and‘‘future verification assessments'',processes which evaluate existing laws and their performance by contrasting their initial (and desirable) visions of the future with the one effectively accomplished;
reflecting on the application of fta tools and methods (such as Delphi surveys, scenario planning, backcasting and modelling techniques) to the legal sphere,
thus involves backcasting both the present and the narrative future. In the case of GSM SMS, ontological expansion looks less radical,
while transforming scenarios feature a form of backcasting, asking what would need to be changed for the target futures to be achieved.
Backcasting, inspired by the early work of Lovins 53, starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies
Backcasting scenarios explore the preconditions that could lead to this desirable future, including a palette of strategies to reach this situation 54.
roadmaps and backcasting use end-point states, while most of the other techniques described produce narratives or images of alternative future states.
sub-section 4. 2. 2 Backcasting from targets and sub-section 4. 2. 3 Backcasting from principles. 4. 2. 1. Framing boundaries A first group of scenario practice is characterized by a focus on framing boundaries.
The Prelude scenarios2 are a good example (see Appendix 1). An important input for the scenario work in this group are the comprehensive descriptions of the external drivers for change highlighting the uncertainty of future developments.
Backcasting from targets A second group of scenario practice is characterized by a focus on backcasting from targets.
Backcasting from principles A third group of practice is characterized by a focus on backcasting from principles.
The concept of change is an implicit part of the scenarios developed in backcasting from principles
(what) Framing boundaries Shaped by possibility Extreme to inform the middle Eventuality Backcasting from targets Shaped by probability S&t Roadmaps Predictive Backcasting from principles Shaped by preference The natural step Visionary Empowering stakeholders (who) Expert
and backcasting from principles can strongly enhance practice by enhancing representation. We also want to Table 3 Different modes of futures thinking for orienting innovation systems via future scenarios.
and backcasting or the above-mentioned s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models. Thus, it supports companies'efforts to sense change
Roadmapping Backcasting, technology/product roadmapping, science mapping multipath mapping (Robinson and Propp, 2006) Scenarios Scenario management, quantitatively based scenarios, different emphases and dark scenarios (Punie et al.
only its general contours are presented in Box 2. Through‘backcasting'from the future success scenario of 2031 to the present day,
This method is known as backcasting. The second way is present-oriented, i e. to define the present state
30 and making use of foresight techniques (a backcasting experimeent a first vision building workshop
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