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In addition, the idea was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice among technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.
and a revisit to roadmapping and TA and the role and management of experts. In the discussion it was pointed out that the increasing complexity of the strategic approaches called for a more complex form of foresight.
and on how the utility of outcomes can impact the different forms of FTA (i e. technology foresight, technology assessment, technology forecasting, technology and product roadmapping).
The article illustrates the use of roadmapping as a tool for TA contributions to the sustainability assessment of emerging technologies.
accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Roadmapping serves both short and long term (strategic) alignment in science and technology (S&t.
At both intra-organizational (department-level) and inter-organizational levels in technology and industry, roadmapping has become a fashionable alignment tool.
the advantages (and disadvantages) of roadmapping depend on the context in which it is applied. There is a wealth of literature focusing on the functions, uses and tools of roadmaps in high-technology companies andmncs 3 20.
In contrast, analyses of assessment practices of researchers and start-ups (who constitute the larger part of Frontiers) seemrare.
In some MNCS separate roadmaps are developed based on anticipation of multiple future scenarios 13 cf. also 26.
which are able to commission roadmaps for dissemination among their members5, they are in a difficult situation to develop
or buy roadmaps of the fields they work in. Literature in the management of innovation, expectations management and sociology-of-technology fields has stressed repeatedly that for assessments during early stages of technological emergence, more‘open-ended'
but at a too general level. 7 3 We note in passing that‘roadmaps'in the public sector often seem to be no more than outlooks on the future of a field or sector,
'4 Even though group leaders may use roadmap-type forecasts to organize financial support for their research. 5 As the Dutch Minacned consortium did in 2006 with their‘Roadmap Micro/Nanotechnology in Food';
'roadmaps). ) In other contexts it may be useful to differentiate, such as with‘anticipatory tools'(foresight exercises, bibliometric analyses, scenario planning, etc);
the company can switch towards roadmapping for incremental innovation. Before delving into the context of lab-on-a-chip for cell analysis we explore what the literature can tell us with regards to insights into emerging path dynamics stemming from sociology of S&t, evolutionary economics and organization studies.
Predictions and projections of all sorts can be made (as in roadmaps) outlining the future path of socio-technical development.
and will be integrated in the Frontiers Roadmapping Initiative. The initiative is a programme focusing on aiding research foci in the link to applications.
For the conceptual developmeen of MPM, our self-set task was to integrate insights from roadmapping, dynamics of Emerging s&t and expectations,
there have been numerous Strategic Support Actions (SSA) of the FP6 Thematic areas that supported roadmap building
At the level of Frontiers the tool has been taken up in official documents as MPM-1 was included in the first round strategic planning document known as the Frontiers Roadmap for 2006/2007.
Further developments of MPM-2 will be included in the following evolutions of the roadmap, however monitoring the affect
Manag. 7 (4)( 1995) 417 431.3 Richard E. Albright, Thomas A. Kappel, Roadmapping in the corporation, Res.
Manag. 46 (2 march April 2003) 31 40.4 D. Barker, David J. H. Smith, Technology foresight using roadmaps, Long Range Plan. 28 (2
Change 8 may 1999) 173 182.7 P. Groenveld, Roadmapping integrates business and technology, Res. Technol. Manag. 40 (5 september October 1997) 48 55.8 D. E. Hussey, Glossary of techniques for strategic analysis, Strateg.
Change 6 (1997) 97 115.9 T. A. Kappel, Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future, J. Prod.
Manag. 11 (4)( 1999) 493 525.11 R. N. Kostoff, R. R. Schaller, Science and Technology roadmaps, IEEE Trans.
Manage. 48 (2 may 2001) 132 143.12 S. Lee, Y. Park, Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes:
Change 14 (2005) 1 13.16 R. Phaal, C. J. P. Farrukh, D. R. Probert, Technology roadmapping A planning framework for evolution and revolution, Technol.
Manage. 49 (4 november 2002) 322 329.22 S. T. Walsh, Roadmapping a disruptive technology: A case study. The emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry, Technol.
Manage. 49 (4 november 2002) 375 387.25 R. N. Kostoff, R. Boylan, G r. Simons, Disruptive technology roadmaps, Technol.
Change 71 (2004) 141 159.26 F. Lizaso, G. Reger, Linking roadmapping and scenarios as an approach for strategic technology planning
Plan. 1 (1)( 2004) 68 86.27 U. Fiedeler, T. Fleischer, M. Decker, Roadmapping as TA-Tool:
The roadmapping activity achieves value by providing a single locus for coordinated research and development activity (see for instance 19.
that many users of technology roadmapping exist in a vertically integrated environment where a few big players have the interests and capabilities to assist in technological coordination.
The description of distributed design in this article is, perhaps, somewhat at odds with the stated premise of technology roadmapping.
Tech mining to accelerate radical innovation, PICMET 2007 Proceedings, 2007.19 Y. Yasunaga, M. Watanabe, M. Korenaga, Outline of the strategic technology roadmap of METI (Ministry of Trade and Industry
of Japan) and trial approaches for technology convergence with the methodology of technology roadmapping, PICMET 2007 Proceedings, Portland, Oregon:
A New approach toweb Applications, 2005, Retrieved 15 may 2007, from http://www. adaptivepath. com/ideas/essays/archives/000385. php. 27 W3c (World wide web Consortium), Roadmap
4 february 2008,2008, Accessed 28 august 2008. http://www. w3. org/TR/wai-aria-roadmap/./28 Wikipedia, WAI-ARIA, 2008, Accessed 28 august 2008. http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Accessible rich internet applications. 29 R. Henderson, K. M. Clark, Architectural innovation:
Foresight methodology Technology assessment Technology analysis Risk assessment Risk analysis Roadmapping 1. Introduction The practices in foresight, technology assessment and industrial risk assessment processes are in many ways parallel.
typically reported as scenarios, visions, roadmaps and action recommendations. The time horizon varies from some five to fifty years,
In the action phase, technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios and others are useful methods to disseminate the visions of the future.
and the prescription phase utilizes the roadmapping, backasting, modelling or simulation methods 42. Altogether, a substantial shift away from the fixed modelling and management towards more contingent and participatory approaches has taken place in all FTA areas.
Possible and potential futures are examined by applying, for instance, scenario, backcasting or roadmapping methods. Among other methods and practices in the field are constructive technology assessment
INNORISK project aims at applying Back-pocket roadmap 30 (also called Agile Roadmap), SWOT analysis 31,32 and IBM's Signpost methodology tools together with Potential Problem/Opportunity (Risk analysis
a medium-size company offering control systems for high-tech companies, a medium-size technology company and a large-size technology company. 2 The back-pocket roadmap starts
The ultimate benefit of this relatively light and fast roadmapping exercise is that the process forces one to think about all the important aspects of the new business creation.
The preliminary results of the project show that roadmapping and OBM are not alternative methods, but could be used as complementary methods.
The link between the opportunity analysis and strategy works of a company becomes evident in the roadmapping process 29.
In the medium-size technology company a roadmap of the offering of the company in the future was done
risk analysis expert may know e g. roadmapping method, but does not understand that it is the most usable only in the prescription phase of the foresight process.
Roadmap, SWOT analysis and Signpost foresight methods were integrated in the risk assessment process. Risk analysis methods and climate change scenarios were integrated.
Outlooks, proposals of the future developments, scenarios, visions, roadmaps, action recommendations. Time horizon 0 5 years 5 50 years Phases Scope definition, risk identification, risk estimation (probability, consequences), risk evaluation The pre foresight phase
SWOT analysis, benchmarking, expert panels (new knowledge creation) Technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios (visions of the future) Constructive technology assessment,
2008.30 T. Ahlqvist, VTT Backpocket Roadmap, Instructions for VTT's Personnel, Espoo, Finland, 2007.31 L. Winer, Definitions of SWOTS,,
Environmental issues or Information and Communication) and formulated in roadmaps. Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 Corresponding author.
both national and international, were developed further by experts taking into account existing forward-looking roadmapping and strategy processes from the public and private sector.
+8 Still the focus of technology developers in their FTA ACTIVITIES, focus on paths (such as roadmapping) rather than journeys.
(and used) for transition policy. 4 15 Used for open-ended roadmapping by technology developers at early stages of development 6. 16 Used for exploring industrial/sectorial alignment/misalignments. 17 See Haico
Foresight and similar future-oriented technology analysis methodds such as trend extrapolation, scenarios, Delphi analysis, focus groups, cross-impact analyses and roadmapping, can be found in traditional business-school
4) Planning for specific actions and follow-up activities (roadmaps, etc..Steps 1 3 were carried out in 2003 and the first half of 2004,
whereas the follow-up activities and the roadmaps for some of the areas are being undertaken currently.
for the other priority areas of technology roadmap exercises were recommended as a follow-up activity. It was, in general,
descriptions of areas of strategy effort Analysis of areas (present state and actor views) Hearings Roadmaps (as follow-up) Duration of the process 15 months Approximately 18 months Legitimization
Following its roadmap, the FNR first issued a call to the research community to submit ideas for new programmes.
However, as the participatory process was not following a strictly speaking forward-looking methodology (e g. scenario development, road mapping, etc.
Technology and Product Roadmapping QTIP serves background information roles well. It is vital in documenting external technology development activities to track their likely trajectories.
and merging empirical/analytical methods with stakeholder engagement processes 5. The positioning was aimed at perceived overlapping fields of practice among technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.
roadmapping, surveys and creative methods are used widely. Key Foresight concepts such as‘‘vision''that were used previously in a rather broad and all encompassing manner have been deconstructed
level vision building Programming Programmes scientific priority setting Programmes stakeholders networks Sectoral vision building, context of roadmaps Performing Research institutions strategic processes Research institutions
Merging optics and nanotechnology A European roadmap for photonics and nanotechnologies 2005 2007. Exercise aimed to provide recommendations for EU R&d efforts as input for FP7 and Strategic research Agendas in two fields (Nanomaterials & Photonics.
Cf. http://www. ist-mona. org/about/roadmap. asp. 14 http://www. nanologue. net/./A. Schoen et al./
The emergence of coordinating instruments such as technology platforms is normally crystallised around a technology roadmap; Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
or technology roadmap to inform procurers of the radical options which might offer innovative forms of supply
-based visionary roadmaps. Building views of the Nordic potentials in ICT development among key actors.
Fixed Structured discussion and the generation of new ideas in the workshops Autonomous Creative brainstorming and ideation in the different scenario and roadmapping workshops.
VTT Water Research Roadmap 2006b Informative Create common understanding on future challenges and VTT expertise. Instrumental Support the formation of different streams of R&d actions within VTT.
Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of roadmaps and scenarios.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 257 Table 1 (Continued) Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement National Technology roadmap in Korea Informative Learning about the technology
National Technology roadmap in Korea aims to make long term strategy plan. Consensual National Technology roadmap (NTRM) in Korea has set up five complementary visions, two
of which are related to sustainability and security directly, including‘‘Advancing the E2 (Environment and Energy) Frontier''and the‘‘Improving National Safety and Prestige''.
National Technology foresight in China and Technology foresight towards 2020 in China as well as National Technology roadmap in Korea were all strongly informative processes that were initiated to capture experts'views on future S&t challenges Hence,
and technology development by using the knowledge generated from roadmap activity. In the UK, the Development, Concept and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) a Directorate General of the Ministry of Defence (MOD) conducted a foresight process that produced as a key output a report‘‘the DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme
The key foci of the VTT Water Research Roadmap were the creative combination of wide-ranging water related issues at VTT as well as the generation of new R&d initiatives.
We can point here to such approaches as risk assessment, roadmapping, and some specific tools of operations management and operational research (such as DEMATEL,
It uses of methods such as roadmapping and scenario development relevant to the particular organisation/stakeholder. An important point stressed in this context is the vital role that third parties can play in interpretation
Roadmapping has become a very popular tool used at this stage, while many instruments of normative forecasting and planning (e g. relevance trees) are also part of the toolkit.
such as those incorporated into scenarios and roadmaps. Eerola suggests that these activities of capturing information
/visions/scenarios/roadmaps/and/or action recommendations Reports on desktop surveys Background reports for focused workshops Reports on the results of SWOT/scenario/roadmap/action Integrative reports
Technology Roadmapping and other ways of visualising future prospects are supported by improved tools, and Delphi and other methods for eliciting expert opinion are frequently put online.
brainstorming, roadmapping, voting, and prioritisation in the course of scenario work, for example. Perhaps we should be establishing a roadmap for this sort of‘‘enhanced reality''in FTA work. 10
While this may be very informal codification even involving user-generated tags and the development of tag clouds and‘‘folksonomies,
and roadmapping conducted for ISTAG (the Information society Technologies Advisory Group) of the EC 26. The Ami work had focused on the benefits of the emerging ubiquitous IT systems,
which have become the ethical roadmap for the future. At the same time socially responsible investment (SRI) has become mainstream
being used in a technology roadmap. Branching trends Very often, trends relate to one another the same way in which a tree-trunk relate to branches and twigs.
In general, several tools are combined in a scenario process (workshops, CBA, trend analyses, models, Delphi, roadmaps and others.
and routines of researchers and has shaped expectations of a new audience. 3 A second example of emerging irreversibilities are the collective roadmaps,
The fact that these roadmaps are made is an indication that actors involved in this process link up to reach a common goal.
The path as is written down in the roadmap is the expression of the shared expectation that this is the right way to go.
The roadmap, thus, functions as a device to keep the actors together. To deviate from it can only be done with increasing costs and effort,
As Johnston (2008) noted, the objective of the first of these seminars‘‘was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice between technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.''
and they provide intellectual roadmaps to answer the‘what if'questions''HIIL, 2011). To conclude, it is important to note that,
For a clarification on the differences and similarities among the wide array of terms, methods and approaches that are included in the umbrella term of FTA, such as technology forecasting, technology assessment, roadmapping, technology foresight,
This poses new challenges for roadmapping methodology in terms of level of aggregation and timeframe. D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Science and technology roadmapping; Technology assessment; Nanotechnology 1. Introduction Emerging technologies pose considerable challenges for dclassicalt technology assessment (TA.
Such a reflexive procedure surely would take into account the numerous demands from the debate on sustainable research and technology policies. 4. Roadmapping methodology as a tool for technology assessment of nanotechnology?
4. 1. Science and technology roadmapping a brief introduction A standard definition of roadmap or droadmappingt does not exist.
what constitutes a roadmap and the roadmapping techniques employed 6. T. Fleischer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1116 The term droadmapt is used widely, starting from graphical representations of technology development paths and their application environments up to detailed and ambitious
For a detailed discussion of the different types of roadmaps, their scopes, objectives, methodologies and time-scales see e g.
Refs. 6 8. Among the different types of roadmaps, technology roadmaps are those with the longest history.
and apply technology roadmapping in the mid-1980s. It has become a widely used technique during the past two decades from the perspective of both individual companies and entire industries.
a bs and T (science and technology, T. F.)roadmap provides a consensus view or vision of the future S and T landscape available to decision makers.
The roadmapping process provides a way to identify, evaluate and select strategic alternatives that can be used to achieve a desired S and T objective.
Q 6 The probably most comprehensive overview of relevant research on and current knowledge about roadmapping, together with a critical discussion of the potential of roadmapping approaches which are applied usually to sustaining technologies to offer insights into disruptive technologies,
and/or technology. 4. 2. Roadmapping as a precursor of a TA process for specific nanotechnology applications The situation described above rather broad and largely unstructured field of investigation, mostly enabling technologies at early stages of development,
Similar to roadmapping, there is no general methodology for technology assessment. TA projects can differ by task, subjects and questions of investigation and addressee.
For that purpose it is proposed to fall back upon experiences with successful roadmapping exercises and to adapt the general concept of science
and technology roadmapping to include it as a precursor into the TA process for selected applications of nanotechnology.
or finished roadmapping activities in or around the field of dnanotechnologyt see e g. 11 14.
These roadmaps are intended to serve other purposes and follow more or less classical trajectories of roadmap development and application
which cannot be discussed here in any more detail. In short, the methodical challenge for our program is to develop roadmaps that combine the disaggregation level of a product roadmap with the timeframe and the inherent uncertainties of strategic roadmaps for branches or industries.
Essential part of many roadmapping concepts is organised an and moderated process with a multidiscipplinar and cross-functional group of experts to develop
and visualize an analytical structure (or architecture) that shows how the different technological elements fit together,
Roadmapping helps people to communicate their plans and visions and to get feedback about them.
and is a learning process for the Group participation in the roadmapping process thus offers benefits for the contributing people
which may lead to public distrust and rejection and support disaster assumptions and dystopic fantasies. 4. 3. Roadmapping nanotechnology the trials Currently,
we are following two different lines to test the applicability of roadmapping in nanotechnology and the quality of the outcomes.
science and technology roadmaps in the domain of nanomaterials will be developed. In the first phase, an international working group integrating roadmap developers
nanomaterials experts and knowledge transfer organisations will build branch specific roadmaps for three different industrial sectors on
which nanomaterials are expected to have major influence. In a second step, these roadmaps shall be adapted to the business culture of small and medium enterprises (SME.
SME are important drivers of some European industrial sectors and potential users of nanomaterials-based innovations.
or to perform a roadmapping process din houset. Among other goals, the project aims at structuring the R&d field of nanomaterials,
It will be very helpful to observe how the social mechanisms typically involved in the practice of roadmapping will develop in the course of such a trans-disciplinary
systems analysis and project management) to participate in an experiment to develop two science roadmaps using different approaches:
Some reflections on the role that science roadmapping can play for research organisations how the experiences with technology roadmapping in companies or industries can be adapted for our T. Fleischer et al./
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1119 purposes, and what further benefits of the roadmapping process beyond structuring the field of nanotechnology can be expected. 5. Summary
and outlook The landscape for Technology assessment has changed over the last few years. Political priorities are altering
We propose an adaptation of the concept of science roadmapping and its application to selected segments of the overall field of nanotechnology.
Finally, roadmapping could support the conceptualisation of Nano-TA as a dreal timet-investigation and assessment of chances and risk,
There is some scepticism that roadmapping really can fulfil its promises. In addition some scientists are restrained somewhat about their participation in a roadmapping process.
Some fear to disclose too much sensitive knowledge to potential competitors, others think that the application of planning tools to topics of basic research might confine creativity
On the other hand, there is some experience with similar doubts about the potential of technology roadmapping. In the words of Robert Galvin:
bin engineering, the roadmapping process has influenced so positively public and industry officials that their questioning of support for fundamental technology support is muted...
Just as engineers first scoffed at them (roadmaps, T. F), . so will some scientists. But who better than scientists to experiment with an experiment that can strengthen sciences'support
, Science and technology roadmaps, IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage. 48 (2)( 2001) 132 143.7 O. Da Costa,
M. Boden, Y. Punie, M. Zappacosta, Science and technology roadmapping: from industry to public policy, IPTS Report 73 (2003.
Roadmapping: from sustaining to disruptive technologies, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 71 (1 2)( 2004) 1 3. 9 R. Galvin, Science roadmaps, Science 280 (5365)( 1998) 803.10 A. Grunwald, Technikfolgenabscha tzung eine
Einfu hrung, Edition Sigma, Berlin, 2002.11 S. Walsh, Roadmapping a disruptive technology: a case study: the emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry, Technol.
Forecast. Soc. Change 71 (1/2)( 2004) 161 185.12 S. Walsh, J. Elders, International Roadmap on MEMS, Microsystems, Micromachining and Top Down Nanotechnology, MANCEF, Naples
, Florida, 2003.13 Microelectronics advanced research initiative, technology roadmap for nanoelectronics, in: R. Compan o, L. Molenkamp, D. J. Paul (Eds.
European commission, IST Programme Future and Emerging technologies, 1999.14 G. Fernholz, Roadmaps in MEMS/MST: what do they offer
and where are headed they for? mstnews 5, 2003, pp. 42 44.15 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis:
They show how process-based road mapping can be applied in building systemic transformation capacities and anticipatory culture,
and present four case studies of road mapping projects from the Technical research Centre of Finland (VTT). How to forecast technologies that depend mainly on discontinuous advances?
technology road mapping; expectations of technological change; foresight; technological change and dynamics 1. Introduction While foresight has been developed into an important instrument for both firms
level vision building Programming Programmes scientific priority-setting Programmes stakeholders networks Sectoral vision building, context of roadmaps Performing Research institutions strategic processes Research institutions
A popular technique is technology roadmapping, which has been used since the 1980s by Motorola and later by many other firms (Willyard and Mcclees 1997), like Philips (Groenveld 1997) and Lockheed martin (Houston and Turner 2001).
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 772 H. van Lente Technological roadmaps basically are creative connections between expected developments in technological skills, sequences of products and potential future
such as the roadmaps on the hydrogen economy (Bakker, van Lente, and Meeus 2011). 3. 2. Force of expectations The case of Moore's Law is extreme,
Moore's law is an extreme case of a strategic game, reinforced by technology roadmaps, between manufacturers who cannot afford to lose the race.
for instance provided by roadmaps or other foresight results. The term Figure 1. Outwitting the hype cycle.
as we saw in the case of technology roadmaps. They thus tend to reproduce the circulating assumptions.
Roadmapping integrates business and Technology research Technology management 40, no. 5: 48 55. Guice, J. 1999. Designing the future:
Developing collaborative solutions to the aging aircraft avionics problem through technology roadmapping. Lockheed-martin JS01 (June:
Perspectives on roadmaps: How organizations talk about the future. Journal of Product innovation Management 18, no. 1: 39 50.
Motorola's technology roadmap process. Research Management 30, no. 5: 13 19. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014
Roadmaps, 3 scenarios, 4 and strategic options (Dixit and Pindyck 1994) are by far the most popular foresight techniques (Becker 2002;
which regularly develops technology roadmaps concerning the group main business sectors. These different pieces of insight are matched finally through an interactive process that brings the social researchers from Philips Design and the technologists from Philips Research together with the business managers from all the product divisions of the company.
In the face of boundary uncertainty, it is simply not sensible to use techniques such as scenarios or roadmaps.
they might start using traditional foresight techniqque (e g. roadmaps in the case of Philips) in order to deepen the investigation of state uncertainty (e g. evolution of demand for new Internet-based services on TV),
or roadmaps in order to figure out the evolution, effect, and response options to environmental changes, that is, to eventually address state, effect,
and Phd graduates. 3. Roadmaps consist of representations of interconnected nodes of major changes and events in some selected fields of the external environment, such as science, technology, and markets.
The links connecting the nodes are the roadmaps themselves, illustrating the temporal and causal relationships between nodes (Kostoff and Schaller 2001).
Science and technology roadmaps. IEEETRANSACTIONS on Engineeringmanagement 48, no. 2: 132 43. Lawrence, P. R, . and J. W. Lorsch. 1967.
Lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on manufacturing systems. Futures. Cagnin, C. H. 2005. An information architecture to enable business sustainability.
constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland Toni Ahlqvist a, Minna Halonen a, Annele Eerola a, Sirkku Kivisaari a, Johanna Kohl a, Raija Koivisto
constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 821-841, DOI:
constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland Toni Ahlqvist*,Minna Halonen, Annele Eerola, Sirkku Kivisaari, Johanna Kohl, Raija Koivisto
Second, we show how process-based roadmapping can be applied in building the systemic transformation capacities and anticipatory culture.
Third, we illustrate these notions by analysing four roadmapping projects as case studies. Keywords: systemic transformation; capacity;
roadmapping; strategy process Introduction The geographical scales of innovation systems are interlinked currently more than ever. The interrelatedness poses specific challenges for an organisation striving to navigate in this landscape.
and propose that principles of roadmapping could be applied in building the systemic capacities. We use a notion of process-based roadmapping that widens the horizons of traditional technology roadmapping in such directions as visionary strategic management, network building and development,
and organisational learning. We realise this by specifying the knowledge spaces and scopes related to roadmaps.
After that, we demonstrate the‘widened'roadmapping approach by using four of VTT's foresight projects as case studies.
The article proceeds through five sections. Section 2 briefly outlines strategic development paths in an RTO
Section 3 presents the notion of process-based roadmapping that is based on the identification of knowledge space and roadmap scope.
Roadmapping as a frame for constructing systemic transformation capacities Roadmapping, strategy processes, and capacity building We suggest that roadmapping is a felicitous method for fostering
and steering systemic transformattio capacities. This is because roadmapping, especially in its strategic form (see below),
is an adaptive process-based methodology well suited for systemic contexts (see Ahlqvist, Valovirta, and Loikkanen 2012):
and long term) and roadmap layers (such as drivers, markets, and enabling technologies). In the systemic context, roadmapping refers to a continuous and transparent process, not a single exercise,
which produces a hermetic chart of the future with a sealed vision. Therefore, the vision should be understood as temporarily locked target that is systematically verified
In the context of systemic transformation capacities, the generic process of roadmapping is coarsely the following:(
1) constructing an initial roadmap with a future vision and required temporal axes (short term, medium term,
and long term),(2) translating the critical parts of the roadmap into action points, and (3) revisiting the roadmap periodically,
varying roughly from a few months to 2 years. In these checkpoints, the roadmap is assessed against the changed circumstances.
Process-based roadmapping is a scalable method that can be used to study the micro-level for example,
employees could even make their personal roadmaps and the macroleeve systemic interactions for example, when roadmapping the futures of a national innovation system.
The temporal spans of the roadmaps are also scalable and should be fitted according to the theme.
For example, the long term in the context of a highly dynamic field, such as mobile Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and knowledge spaces 825 information and communication technology (ICT), differs vastly from the long term of a highly inert field, such as transportation infrastructure.
Roadmapping can thus be considered a kind of‘fractal'approach, which is scalable both temporally and substantially.
In addition, several other aspects make a further statement for roadmapping. First, roadmapping enables the organisation to systematically produce its own strategic future manuscript
and set it in the context of organisational knowledge spaces (see the next section). These kinds of future manuscripts could also be produced with other narrative foresight methods, such as scenarios or‘genius forecasting'.
'Second, the roadmapping process enables the engagement of the key actors in an organisation. Thus, it builds on a variety of organisational knowledge spaces
Third, the roadmapping process enables the alignment of a common vision, the knowledge spaces, and temporal spans.
To engage in a successful roadmapping process, the organisation does need not only to depict its present position,
Thus, the roadmapping exercise simultaneously fosters an anticipatory culture and structural openness through a systematic process and explicit visionary narrative.
roadmapping enables organisations to align their future visions with explicit action steps and to iterate the process systematically.
The theoretical background for the above formulations stems from the notion that roadmapping can be considered both as a line of strategic thought
and as a process methodology. 1 Roadmapping combines different modes of knowledge with specific activity layers (Kostoff and Schaller 2001;
In other words, roadmaps are tools for the combination of organisational knowledge that may be‘unlinkable'with other strategic methods (see e g.
As a process methodology, roadmapping consists of several modules. Modularisation allows one to form a tailored‘response chain'to answer different kinds of research and development problems (see, e g.
Furthermore, modularisation enables the tailoring of the roadmapping process to suit the needs of the different actors
It is possible to make a distinction between two roadmapping cultures. First is the culture of technology roadmapping, in
which the roadmapping is approached as a normative instrument to identify relevant emerging technologies and to align these technologies with explicit product plans
and related action steps (see e g. Phaal, Farrukh, and Probert 2001. In this culture, the roadmappiin process is a tool to endorse product development.
Second is the emerging culture of strategy roadmapping, in which the roadmapping is perceived more as a dynamic
and iterative process that produces weighed crystallisations, usually in a visual form, of an organisation's long-term vision,
Here, we call this methodology process-based roadmapping. It is based on an idea that roadmaps are like visual narratives describiin the most critical paths of future developments (Phaal and Muller 2009.
This visual emphasis enables the use of roadmaps as crystallised strategy charts that open simultaneous perspectives both on macro-level currents
and micro-level developments (see Blackwell et al. 2008). This idea of a roadmap as a crystallised strategy chart separates roadmapping from other‘generic'foresight methods, such as Delphi or scenario processes.
Roadmapping can be considdere as a meta-level visualisation of an organisational strategy that could utilise the inputs from Delphi or scenario exercises,
just as Delphi or scenario exercises could utilise inputs from roadmapping exercises. Conceptualised in this way, roadmapping comes quite close to system dynamic modelling techniques,
yet roadmapping is still more of a technique for strategic focussing Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 826 T. Ahlqvist et al.
Figure 2. Using roadmaps in strategy processes (Ahlqvist 2009. than for system simulation. However, combining roadmapping with system dynamic modelling is definitely a potential path for future methodological development.
Process-based strategy roadmapping is methodologically more flexible and exploratory than traditiiona technology roadmapping. The roadmaps are approached not as hermetic plans to achieve definite goals (e g. new products),
but instead they are approached as knowledge umbrellas that, by integrating different analytical methods, produce a visual strategy manuscript for an organisattion Strategy roadmapping is also about engaging
and empowering people (see Ahlqvist et al. 2010). This idea links strategy roadmapping to organisation and strategy studies, especially to strategy crafting (see e g.
Heracleous and Jacobs 2008; Whittington and Cailluet 2008. Therefoore the emerging culture of strategy roadmapping should not be viewed as a‘pure'foresight methodology,
but more as a hybrid of foresight and organisational strategy crafting. Roadmapping can be used in strategy processes, for example, in the following ways (Figure 2:
The first way is the building of a common vision. Basically, roadmapping is a collaborative long-range strategy process.
The second way is the identification of societal needs as drivers for the design of solutions.
When there is a need to link technological and societal trajectories, roadmapping is an apt instrument.
The third way to use roadmaps is to articulate demand in the context of, for example, a product or a service.
The fourthway is what we call visionary strategising. This means that one tries to understand the systemic linkages between roadmap layers, such as linkages between societal drivers
markets, solutions, and technologies in a certain time frame. The fifth way is to identify single targets in the roadmap structure.
Single targets could be useful, for example, for making a subcontractor strategy. The sixth way is to read roadmaps as temporal sequences, that is,
to identify logical temporal sequences in a specific roadmap layer, such as enabling technology. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and knowledge spaces 827 In process-based roadmapping, systemic transformation capacities can be built through the following three steps:(
1) identification of relevant knowledge spaces,(2) specification of the relevant roadmap scope, and (3) building a managerial orientation to deal with the results.
These ideas and concepts are elaborated below. Knowledge spaces and roadmap scopes How is it possible to combine the roadmapping methodology with the creation of structural openness, an anticipatory agency,
and an anticipatory culture? In order to realise this, we propose a model that separates roadmap knowledge spaces from the roadmap scope.
Here, the knowledge space refers to a sort of niche in an organisation, in which an anticipatory agency can be mobilised.
Knowledge spaces, therefore, depict key spheres in which the systemic transformation capacity is realised. The roadmap scope (below) refers to the level at
which the roadmap is aimed. Scope is a more traditional insight into roadmapping methodology that separates, for example, technology roadmaps and market roadmaps.
Our model separates roadmaps with R&d scope and roadmaps with systemic scope. Figure 3 shows an ideal model of roadmap knowledge spaces.
In the figure we have singled out four knowledge spaces that are important in the context of RTOS (see also Table 1). The model combines the four knowledge spaces with three basic temporal scales (past, present, and futures.
In the figure, the different‘modes'of temporal objects are depicted as irregular forms. The present,
as the sphere of all actions, is the most coherent one, and the past and the futures are more incoherent.
This visualisation underlines a crucial point: all three temporal scales are based on interpretation that is, the actors have different interpretations of the present in relation to the past
and market drivers Strategy Strategic and holistic view of the research objects Strategic capacity of the organisation and/or entity Holistic roadmaps to be used in long-term strategic planning Technology space
transparency Communicating strategic aims Building synthesising vision (vertical and horizontal) Visionary strategising Aligning roadmap knowledge Visionary Exploration of futures on different scales of certainty Systemic
Table 1 translates the above-mentioned knowledge spaces into‘roadmapping language'and terminology. It describes the basic aims of the process
and provides some views on the use of roadmapping material. Table 2 presents the roadmap scopes in a schematic form.
The first roadmap scope is R&d I, with a perspective of a single technology or object.
This is quite a traditional technology roadmap that aims to build a future perspective for a single technology. The aim of the roadmap is to identify specific action steps towards the future.
This scope is parallel to the technology space. The second roadmap scope is R&d II
with a perspective of a single organisation or firm. Basically, the view is similar to the first one,
but instead of a technology domain, the focus is on the organisational Table 2. Ideal scopes of roadmaps.
Roadmap scope Description Process aims Primary use of the roadmap R&d I: R&d perspective on a single technology or object Roadmapping single technologies from a certain perspective Enhancing organisational capacities in a certain technology field Building vision
and associated steps mainly in the technological space Drafting action steps to advance the implementatiio of the technology in question R&d II:
R&d perspective on a single organisation or firm Roadmapping organisattiona capacities in developing new competencies Roadmap for developing organisational/firm capacities Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces
depends on the specific aims of the process Forming practical organisatioona conclusions on the basis of the roadmapping Systemic I:
business perspective Network roadmapping Roadmap for developing capacities for a network or a cluster Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces depends on the specific aims of the process Making business decisions on the basis
of the roadmapping Cluster roadmapping Systemic II: policy perspective Innovation policy roadmapping Roadmap for developing synthesising policy perspectives for public actors Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces depends on the specific aims of the process Forming policy conclusions on the basis of the roadmapping Downloaded by University of Bucharest
at 05:05 03 december 2014 830 T. Ahlqvist et al. structures. The third scope is called systemic I,
and it emphasises the business perspective. The roadmap aims to develop capacities for a network or a cluster,
and combines roadmap knowledge‘spaces',depending on the specific aims of the process. The aim is to endorse business decisions on the basis of roadmapping.
The fourth scope is systemic II with a policy perspective. It is constructed to produce synthesising policy perspectives for public actors.
The aim is to form policy conclusions on the basis of roadmapping. This category also contains a methodology of innovation policy roadmapping (see Ahlqvist, Valovirta, and Loikkanen 2012.
In the following section, we use four examples of VTT's foresight projects to illustrate how roadmapping can be applied in constructing systemic capacities.
Four case examples The brief case examples are positioned according to the four roadmap scopes and the relevant knowledge spaces described in the previous section.
The aim of the case examples is to depict concisely how the systemic transformation capacities can be fostered by roadmap exercises combinnin different roadmapping scopes and knowledge spaces.
The central outcomes of the cases are contained in the concise conclusions after the cases. Building Services Roadmap:
technology and social/actor space, R&d I scope Our first example is a roadmapping process that is aimed to renew a line of organisational compettenc that is already rather well established at VTT.
The aim of the process was to form an outlook of development directions in building services, its research needs and business potential to the year 2020 (Paiho et al. 2007.
The building services roadmap was realised in three phases in 2006 2007. In the first phase, a large background review was completed.
The second phase was the roadmapping (Figure 4). Roadmapping was realised in three consecutive workshops. The first workshop was about drivers and technologies.
The second workshop considered the future markeets business potential, and actors in the sector of building services.
and verified the constructed roadmap drafts. The building services roadmap was constructed through two roadmap levels.
The first level was a metaroadmap that crystallised the project's results. The metaroadmap formed an umbrella for the second level thematic subroadmaps.
Knowledge spaces and systemic capacities The building services roadmap can be perceived as an R&d I type of technology roadmap that is aimed to contribute to the technology space and the social/actor space.
The project roadmapped a single type of technology sector and thus endorsed the organisational capacities in this domain.
The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 3. The building services roadmap operated, first, in the technology space.
and knowledge spaces 831 Figure 4. The roadmapping process in the Building Services Roadmap (Paiho et al. 2007,
) Table 3. Summary of the knowledge spaces in the Building Services Roadmap. Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Technology Exercise covered the field of building services with an explicit focus on the future possibilities,
e g. advanced materials Several novel single technology elements were embedded in the roadmaps Social/actor Exercise covered social/actor space from the selected perspectives Capacities for linking of knowledge internally, e g. construction and ICT
strategy space and social/actor space, RD II scope Our second example applies roadmapping in the context of an organisational development process aimed at establishing a service research network at VTT.
Second, roadmapping was used to trigger participatory, future-oriented thinking. Roadmapping was divided into two phases. The first roadmapping phase traced the big picture of the service landscape from the present moment (2009) until 2025.
This workshop was dedicated to identifying opportunities and challenges for service research in the long term; and to link, scale,
and prioritise emerging service research issues. The second phase of the roadmapping was thematic, and it was carried out in five groups.
This integrated process was called learning by foresight and evaluation (with the acronym LIFE, learning by foresight and evaluation;
and systemic capacities The SSB roadmap can be perceived as an R&d II type of technology roadmap that aims to contribute to the strategy space and the social/actor space.
Construction Machinery Roadmap: strategy space and visionary space, systemic I scope The third case is an example of a systemic network roadmap.
The construction machinery roadmap was aimed to develop new service capacities for a network of technology-oriented companies,
and to foster business decisions based on a novel‘service perspective'formed in the process (Myllyoja, Wessberg, and Pajakkala 2012).
The roadmapping process was realised in two phases: the first phase was thematic interviews and the second phasewas roadmapping.
The roadmapping phasewas completed in twoworkshops. In both workshops, the participants were divided into four thematic groups:(
1) measuring and enhancing productivity,(2) innovative service concepts,(3) learning and education, and (4) internationnality Each of the groups made their own thematic roadmaps.
The aim of the roadmapping process was first to form a vision to which the participants could commit,
and to build roadmaps accentuating the following emphases: enhancing the added value for the end-user;
developing Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 834 T. Ahlqvist et al. Table 4. Summary of the knowledge spaces of the SSB network.
and its future possibilities Capacities for use of the existing service knowledge Knowledge generated via roadmapping was used iteratively throughout the strategy building process, e g. definition of service, identification of most important research needs,
The temporal span of the roadmap was about 10 years, until the 2020s. Knowledge spaces and systemic capacities The construction machinery roadmap can be approached as systemic
I type roadmapping process, which aimed to contribute to the strategic and visionary spaces, and to come up with related business decisions.
The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 5. In the strategy space,
the construction roadmap emphasised three aspects. The first aspect was about building new client-oriented and environmentally sustainable practices in the field
and knowledge spaces 835 Table 5. Summary of the knowledge spaces in the Construction Machinery Roadmap.
and take part in the processes of the clients Building thematic roadmaps on four project themes:(
towards integrated service packages Visionary Forming a new kind of service-oriented culture in a rather conservative field Fostering structural adaptabiliit for the adoption of new kinds of practices Building explicit visions in roadmap themes:(
The fourth phase, the roadmapping workshop, created roadmaps on selected socio-technical visions. In the final research phase, the action workshop, a set of actions to be taken by the key players in the Nordic countries was depicted.
for example, in the form of application visions and exploratory socio-technical roadmaps. The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 6. Nordic ICT Foresight operated primarily in the strategy space.
plausible, disruptive, alternative, unlikely Assessing the explorative application visions in the context of four scenarios Creation of scenario-based visionary socio-technical roadmaps on several application visions
and created scenario-based visionary sociotechhnica roadmaps. In the capacity view, the project endorsed systemic openness towards future development options in the context of ICT,
In the cases, the targets of the systemic capacities varied according to the different knowledge spaces and roadmap scopes,
Three of the cases (building services roadmap, SSB network, and construction machinery roadmap) emphasised the building of a novel service-oriented culture,
albeit through differing knowledge spaces and roadmap scopes. The fourth case, Nordic ICT Foresight, was oriented a policy exercise targeted at national and transnational (Nordic) scales.
Two of the projects, the building services roadmap and the construction machinery roadmap were explicitly about renewing an already well-established industry with locked-in practices.
The building services roadmapwas about renewing the research emphases atvtt, and the construction machinery roadmapwas about finding newbusiness directions in the network of actors in the field.
the actual roadmapping process was able to endorse new ideas about markets, services, and solutions in the topic areas.
The roadmapping process was also able to foster a shared understanding of the critical future gaps,
We presented a model of a process-based roadmap with four knowledge spaces, which extends the horizons of roadmappiing We also presented four case examples the Building Service Roadmap, SSB Network, Construction Machinery Roadmap,
and Nordic ICT Foresight which all represented different roadmap scopes and knowledge spaces. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and knowledge spaces 839 The article created insights for managing systemic entities, such as organisations or companies, in systemic environments.
process-based roadmapping is one potential avenue for the construuctio of such mobile strategies. On the basis of the cases, it can be assessed that roadmapping is most applicable to processes aimed either at the technology space, the social/actor space,
or the strategy space. In the case of the visionary space, methods that bring more creative latitude,
or making experimental mini-scenarios, could be handiie than more structured roadmapping. In addition, exploratory approaches based on, for example, modelling, simulation,
First, the notion of systemic transformation capacities should be analysed from perspectives other than roadmapping. The lessons of the article could be ennobled by putting them in a dialogue with other foresight methodds such as scenario and weak signal analysis.
'Note 1. In this article, it is not possible to provide a review of the origins and different dimensions of roadmapping.
He has published widely in the field of foresight, on topics such as roadmapping, emerging technologies and infrastructures,
He has been working in different roadmap processes as a senior facilitator. His other fields of expertise concern
She has also been carrying on various roadmap processes. She holds a Dr. Degree in environmental policy and M. Sc. degree in environmental technology.
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