The Delphi method is discussed also from the viewpoint of a combination with road mapping (Kanama et al. 2008).
integration of technology roadmapping and the Delphi method'',International Journal of Technology intelligence and Planning, Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 184-200.
An important new methodological aspect was the development of roadmaps, the identification of potential large-scale innovation projects,
technological roadmaps for several high-technology market segments where Russia has the possibility to improve its positions were developed,
whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at development S&t.
whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at the development of S&t.
Her research interests include foresight, technology roadmap, and patent analysis. Hai-Chen Lin is the corresponding author and can be contacted at:
Her research interests include foresight, technology roadmap, and patent analysis. VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 73 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
e g. when relying on qualitative scenarios in devising technology roadmaps. They also identified the scientific quality and validity of outcomes of participatory approaches as an issue of concern 18.
and a hint of roadmapping. More importantly, we suggest that TLC would be complemented by informal
The concept of roadmapping has its roots in science and technology planning 55. A science or technology roadmap is like a highway roadmap that describes how one might proceed from a starting point to a final destination expressed as a vision.
Like a highway roadmap shows the intersections between roads a science or technology roadmap also shows the intersections between scientific steps or technologies 56.
A roadmap can take various forms, but generally comprises a time-based chart together with a number of layers,
which provides a means to link technology and other resources to future products, as well as to innovation objectives and milestones 55.
The Delphi method is developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method, which relies on a panel of experts.
roadmaps and backcasting use end-point states, while most of the other techniques described produce narratives or images of alternative future states.
Using roadmaps is an example of such a complementary technique for linking scenarios with internal innovation capabilities (i e. inward reflection.
a roadmap only operates with one vision. Linking scenarios with technology roadmapping initiates an exploratory and creative phase to identify
and understand uncertainties. Developing a set of scenarios acknowledges multiple rather than one future, equally plausible,
whereas roadmapping provides a framework for condensing all information in one map and timeframe revealing windows of opportunity thus linking decision-making with future scenarios.
and establishing a common vision among the innovation stakeholders as a boundary framework before moving into technology roadmapping 70.4.2.2.
This‘roadmap'linking the necessary steps, contributes to the recognition that the long-term target is not only possible but also achievable.
Different from the above group, this one already leverages the combined use of roadmaps. We found that selecting areas for future opportunities are the general theme in the lessons learnt from this group.
Roadmaps directed towards a single target are likely to be inappropriate where policy intervention may direct technology towards a different trajectory altogether 70,71.
Also for the third group of scenario practice, we suggest some areas of improvement with regard to legitimizing actions by adding a planning perspective via roadmaps or similar approaches.
Comprehensive and well-designed roadmaps linking today's experiments with future images can improve the impact of the scenarios.
In addition the success of the roadmaps can be tested for different possible future images. This will provide essential information about the robustness of the innovation potential.
(what) Framing boundaries Shaped by possibility Extreme to inform the middle Eventuality Backcasting from targets Shaped by probability S&t Roadmaps Predictive Backcasting from principles Shaped by preference The natural step Visionary Empowering stakeholders (who) Expert
As acknowledged in the previous sections (see also Tables 2 and 3), cross-fertilization between scenario approaches and techniques, such as framing boundaries, roadmapping,
The Fast Start to Technology Roadmapping, Planning Your Route to Success, Centre for Technology management, Ifm University of Cambridge, 2001.56 T. J. Gordon, S&t roadmapping, in:
. Borch, From Future scenarios to Roadmapping: Guiding Exploratory Innovation and Strategy, the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA:
12 & 13,may 2011, May 13 2011.71 O. Saritas, J. Aylen, Using scenarios for roadmapping: the case of clean production, Technol.
Visions, roadmaps, and visionary policy documents have been a main source for analyzing the social and political dimensions of nanotechnology in the broad range of STS,
In this paper, FTA is used as the umbrella term covering subfields such as technology foresight, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping and technology assessment cf. the list in 29 and combining tools, ranging fromquantitative methods
scenarios and roadmaps challenging today's paradigms and basic assumptions on system dynamics. A third arena where systemic change needs to be addressed is innovation itself as its very definition seems to be shifting.
Her scientific interests are innovative approaches of scenario and roadmap development. As a mechanical engineer she has conducted various foresight projects on future prospects for industrial production and on research and innovation patterns on behalf of government authorities
the term‘future-oriented technology analysis'seeks to apply a wider collective identity around several strategic intelligence activities including technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, assessment and modelling but faces a reality where the community regards FTA as the name
and deterministic roadmapping approaches to the future gave way to a growing awareness and acceptance of other methods,
In planning subsequent such FTA gatherings, it may be useful to look for signs of shared sense-making frameworks able to encompass, on the one hand, a tightly constrained roadmapping of a given technology within the assumptions of a specific scenario of national/European competitiveness,
and operational parameters imposed by a roadmapping exercise. Without finding ways to cover this range of FTA there is the danger that the FTA conferences become a set of disconnected conversations,
Lessons from a scenario and roadmapping exercise on manufacturing systems Cristiano Cagnin a b,,*Totti Ko nno la c adg Joint research Centre for Prospective and Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Seville, Spain b Center for Strategic studies and Management
Innovation International foresight Roadmapping Scenarios Vision-building A b s T R A c T Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences,
The main objective was the creation of five research roadmaps towards IMS by the year 2020 and beyond.
The innovation roadmaps 24 highlight the main milestones of innovation activities (i e. research and development, management and policy actions) which are needed to achieve a desired vision.
Each roadmap focused on one of five key areas of technology (KATS:(i) sustainable manufacturing, products and services;(
The final roadmaps were designed towards such Joint Vision. 3. 1. State of the art and expectations To kickoff the project-design together with consortia partners most of the initial debate centred on methodological aspects.
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 30 online tools to engage project partners and the supporting roadmapping group4 in well-defined stages.
The meetings conducted during crucial phases such as the scenario formulation and the definition of a common vision for the roadmapping work.
(i) scientific literature and of (ii) the main areas covered by twenty worldwide existing roadmaps and thirteen ongoing research projects.
but most importantly to scan dimensions used in previous scenario and roadmapping projects; 2. Linking the findings of previous projects and research with the results of the mapping, the interviews and the first online survey.
and the roadmapping support group for final refinements and to ensure that it encompasses all IMS regions.
In a second stage and after approval of the defined scenario snapshots by all project partners and IMS regions, including the roadmapping support group,
industries and societies. 3. 3. Roadmaps The final IMS2020 Joint Vision comprise a set of around eighty research topics
including the roadmapping support group, through an online wiki that had over 2500 visits. The refined research topics were then prioritised in terms of (i) a timeline between 2010 and 2020,(ii) inter-dependencies between research topics (those
The roadmaps have been adapted for use by the European commission. These start from the implementation of the identified research topics and supporting actions between 2011 and 2013
The roadmaps were debated and refined with the European commission, who was the client of the project
Based on this, the roadmaps were shaped around:(i) research topics (RTS in Fig. 4) which act as‘bricks'with short term implementation needed (starting in Fig. 4. IMS2020 roadmaps.
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 33 1 3 years and to be concluded in 3 7 years;
The devised Joint Vision and roadmaps, which include the milestones of innovation activities identified, was open for wide consultation in the IMS region and beyond through a wiki platform.
Final results were presented in the form of roadmaps between today and 2020 to enable the European commission to identify
ii) continuous recruitment of new members comprising both research and industry stakeholders for the Roadmapping Supporting Group, especially outside the existing IMS community,
and roadmapping process shed light on some of the challenges that arise when organising global foresight exercises. Table 1 summarises the main lessons learned using four principles that need to be taken into consideration when designing and managing an international foresight exercise.
Finally, it supported the scenario and roadmapping work which had to be adapted in order to closely involve partners during a period of almost two months.
patent databases as well as existing research and worldwide roadmaps on manufacturing. The mapping results were brought together with partners'and stakeholders'experience,
European commission and roadmapping group) to share a common understanding of the system under analysis. It also allowed all the involved parties to explore likely ways in which it could evolve.
Roadmaps have been developed for the European commission identifying the key resources (i e. research areas and research topics) that are expected, according to the selected models,
This is because none of the partners beyond JRC-IPTS were acquainted with foresight and the alternative processes for building scenarios, joint visions and roadmaps.
in the vision building Roadmaps Stocktaking of the results from other phases Inclusion of multiple dimensions in roadmapping frame Intensive online panel work Cross feeding among different roadmaps to coordinate
and dissemination Roadmaps and recommendations to address both horizontal and vertical aspects Informing and engaging stakeholders Dissemination of results through the networks Training Tailored dissemination to targeted stakeholders Dissemination in different levels of innovation systems 9 However,
The meetings were dedicated to the crucial phases such as the scenario formulation and the common definition of the vision for the roadmapping work.
including roadmapping group Formal Interviews, mutual learning workshops, online surveys, wiki platform, website, dissemination activities Personal contacts and Internet Informal Online surveys, wiki platform, website
and the final roadmaps were presented made it possible for reach out to both the research and industry communities (results have been presented in a number of conferences).
The development of scenarios, the vision building process and the final roadmaps included not only expectations, needs and viewpoints from the IMS region,
and appropriate funding mechanisms. 5. Conclusions The IMS2020 scenario and roadmapping process shed light on how future global collaborative research
joint application of integrated management model and roadmapping, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 27 65.6 O. Saritas, Systems thinking for Foresight,(Ph d. thesis), Manchester
Insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis and Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 1 232.24 T. Ko nno la, Innovation roadmap:
, A. Paci, R. Fornasiero, M. Chiacchio, F. Rusina`,R. Checcozzo, A. Pirlet, M. Bru lhart, F. Ernst, Action Roadmap on Key Areas 1
Deliverable D2. 2. of IMS2020, Project Number 233469,2009. 27 A. Rolstadas, IMS2020 roadmap for sustainable manufacturing research, in:
It explains the development of a particular variation of a roadmapping technique, the so-called‘multi-path mapping'(MPM) toolset by exploring its prospects
and roadmapping are used commonly for the identification of technological opportunities and exploration of possible future markets in this respect.
lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on manufacturing systems, Futures (2014)( forthcoming. 52 M. G. Lipe, S. E. Salterio, The balanced scorecard:
, scenario analysis, technology forecasting, roadmapping, and backcasting or the above-mentioned s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models. Thus, it supports companies'efforts to sense change
roadmapping and target costing 39, business modeling and future studies. The outcome of the applied futures research methods is broadened substantially in projects with interdisciplinary character and a combination of knowledge and insight from various industries.
, scenario analysis, multi-issue actor analysis, roadmapping Project 2. 3 Thematic innovation radar Identifies new technologies, trends and topics in a predefined thematic field Project 2. 4 Working group Provide a setting to explore future topics
and refining product roadmaps and corporate strategy internally within the network partner organizations (outside-in). Additionally, foresight activities in the WINN and EIT ICT Labs cases are used to provide information for guiding,
Roadmapping Backcasting, technology/product roadmapping, science mapping multipath mapping (Robinson and Propp, 2006) Scenarios Scenario management, quantitatively based scenarios, different emphases and dark scenarios (Punie et al.
Roadmaps of these technologies were built then. Workshops to conduct the foresight process were held in the region.
Four scenarios and six technology roadmaps for the region were developed. The results show that many future technologies will converge to become most effective in dealing with biosecurity and EID.
He took part in developiin the roadmap for Thailand's first biotechnology policy framework. He is currently the executive director of the APEC Center for Technology foresight and the director of Policy Research and Management at the National science Technology and Innovation policy Office, Bangkok,
and will have important methodological implications that eventually bring about a clearer identification of‘technology roadmaps'.'The technology roadmapping method has been used in the present authors'previous region-wide studies (APEC CTF, 2006.
The new challenge in the present study is the roadmapping of converging technologies within the diversity of the Asia-pacific region.
Scope and main insights Better understanding of patterns of infectious diseaase needs input from anthropology,
and the roadmaps to develop those technologies that respond to user requirements. Methodology Conduct of the project:
the technology roadmapping technique was applied to analyze the linkage between the development of supporting technologies
Technology roadmapping The structure of the roadmaps used in this study was designed by adapting from the generic format of a product/technology roadmap (Phaal et al.
) The basic elements of a generic roadmap representiin market, products, technology, R&d programs, and resources, were changed into the elements listed below:
and management of EID Aim to develop roadmaps of technology applications that have high impact to combat EID Aim to develop roadmaps of technology research domain
and identify key technology applications to combat EID Phase II Final Symposium Roadmapping II Roadmapping I Figure 2 Information flow through the project Biosecurity and
The time frame of the roadmaps was divided into three periods: short term (2007 2012), medium term (2012 2017),
The structure of the roadmaps used in this study is shown in Figure 3. Two roadmapping workshops were organized in Tokyo in Japan on 22 24 may (42 experts from nine economies) 2007 and in Taipei, Chinese Taipei
The model Was developed in Roadmapping I Developed in Roadmapping II Figure 3. Structure of technology roadmaps Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 46 proposed at the workshop
Technology roadmaps Using inputs from the scenarios and the EID life cyclle experts at the following first technology roadmapppin workshop have identified key domains of technology research, namely ubiquitous computing, treatments,
Recommendations for this research domain are shown in Table 2. The second roadmapping workshop was organizze
in order to further develop the roadmaps and Preventive measures (PM) Surveillance and detection (S&d) Treatment (Tr) Prevention of spread (Pos) Figure 4. EID life cycle model Source:
All the technology research and application domaain identified in the roadmapping workshops fit with the life cycle model (see Figure 5). In keeping with the theme of converging technologies,
this paper gives an example of a diagnostic technologies roadmap (Table 3) as one among the six technology roadmaps developed in the study.
A discussion which developed mainly in the diagnoosi roadmap suggested that a new network Preventive measures (PM) Surveillance
to combating EIDS Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 48 Table 3. Roadmap for development of EID diagnostics 2007 2012 2013 2017
in order to make the best use of the foresight roadmaps, the results should be disseminaate to a broad range of (and certainly to those in positions of authority) stakeholders.
as shown by the technology roadmaps through the mapping of technollog applications with the EID life cycle.
Technology roadmaps have been developed for each of these domains to provide the basis for natioona and regional strategies for biosecurity and combating EID.
The significant findings for each of the roadmaps from the point of view of convergennce are: Vaccines:
and technology roadmapping) bears interesting potential and advannce important methodological issues in FTA. Bibliometric analysis and online survey complement each other in providing insights
and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 50 identification of‘technology roadmaps'that are to be applied to a wider geographical area and more diverse level of technology capacity and socioeconommi development.
Special thanks are due to Dr Yoshhik Okamoto (RIKEN, Japan) and Dr Stephen Prowse who contribbute in the Diagnostic Technology roadmap.
Roadmapping Converging technologies to Combat Emerging Infectious Diseasses Bangkok: APEC Center for Technology foresight. APEC Leaders'Declaration, APEC, 2006. 14th APEC Economic Leaders'Meeting, Ha Noi Declaration, Ha Noi, Viet nam, 18 19 november 2006.
The criteria identified as being important for foresight specialists to achieve effective policy engagement were deep knowledge in the relevant field, a‘roadmap'style of thinking
Valovirta and Loikkanen describe the developmmen of a new policy instrument, innovation policy roadmapping, and its role in assisting in aligning technologgica and societal perspectives with the more visionary framework necessary to address grand challenges.
This instruumen adapts the methodology of technology roadmapping to addressing critical innovation policy challennge at the level of national and regional innovation systems, within a global context.
which comprises technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, technollog assessment, and foresight. In addition, this methodological approach was based on the perception that decision-making emerges from a negotiaatio between multiple actors.
wild cards, SWOT analysis, roadmapping, web survey and interviews, expert panel, conference and workshops, multi-criteria and stakeholder analysis, indicator developmeent benchmarking,
Applying diversified roadmap concept'Ahlqvist et al. 2011) Deals with a deliberate roadmapping approach both to rapid and gradual systemic transformations characterised by complexity
and uncertainty Systemic view on innovation capabilities of society in which RTOS are pertinent nodes. Emphasis on coordination mode and its interactions with other governance modes Institutionalisation of FTA needs to be combined with network structures to attain:
and also horizontal and pervasiiv anticipatory culture‘Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for policy design'Ahlqvist et al.
2012) Focuses on gradual multilevel complex deliberate transformatiions which can be identified with a roadmapping exercise Identification of suitable policy instruments and/or strategies for various governance modes External service (projects and programmes),
and policy roadmapping activities‘Linking territorial foresight and urban planning'Ferna'ndez Gu ell et al. 2012) Addresses spatial dimension in gradual transformation, combining both reactive and deliberate approaches in scenario work that integrate spatial dimensions of urban planning Elements of different modes of governance addressed.
2011 (SEC 2010) References Ahlqvist, T.,Valovirta, V. and Loikkanen, T. 2012)‘ Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for forward-looking policy design',Science and Public policy, 39
Applying diversified roadmap concept at VTT, Finland, 'Paper presented at the FTA 2011 Conference, held 12 13 may, Seville, Spain.<
lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems, 'paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, held Seville, Spain, 12 may 2011.
Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for forward-looking policy design Toni Ahlqvist1,,*Ville Valovirta2 and Torsti Loikkanen2 1vtt Technical research Centre of Finland, Ita inen Pitka katu 4, Turku, P o box 106,20521 Turku, Finland 2vtt Technical research
This paper presents innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM) as a methodologgica framework for linking R&d results to systemic policy contexts and to forward-looking policy design.
roadmapping; systemicity; forward-looking policy design; foresight; socio-technical transformation. 1. Introduction Since the 1960s, the results of R&d practices have increasinngl been approached as knowledge inputs in the construuctio of science and technology policies.
This paper discusses how the methodology of roadmapping could be applied as an instrument in systemic policy contexts.
In recent years, roadmapping has been applied increasingly as an instrument of strategy-making (Blackwell et al. 2008.
the paper introduces a methodology for roadmapping systemic transformations. The IPRM method combines roadmapping and the forward-looking evaluation of policy development paths.
IPRM integrates the approach of technology roadmapping including such contents as enabling technologies, applications, products, markets and drivers with the perspectives of systemic policies and policy instruments.
IPRM is targeted also at the systemic level of multiple actors and organizations. Thus, this visionary process includes many participants and different interests.
Innovation policy roadmapping. 179. Symbolic function, i e. that policy is based on informatiio that is shared and collaboratively interpreted.
In the following section, we discuss how roadmapping can be used in fostering forward-looking policy design. 3. IPRM:
a framework for forward-looking policy design 3. 1 Methodological background IPRM is an integrative method that combines the two cultures of roadmapping with a sensibility towards systemic aspects of socio-technical transformation.
IPRM builds on two cultures of roadmapping (on roadmapping, see Barker and Smith 1995; Kostoff and Schaller 2001;
The first is the culture of technology roadmapping, in which roadmapping is approached as a normative instruumen to identify relevant technologies
and align them with explicit product plans and related action steps. In this culture the roadmapping process is a systematic managemmen practice aimed at product development.
The second is the emerging culture of strategy roadmapping in which the roadmapping is perceived more as a dynamic
and iterative process that produces weighed crystallizzations usually in a visual form, of an organization's long-term vision,
and short-to medium-term strategies to realize this vision. It is based on an idea that roadmaps are like visual narratives that describe the most critical paths of future developments (Phaal and Muller 2009.
This visual emphasis enables the use of roadmaps as crystallized strategy maps that open up a simultaneous perspective on both the macro-level currents and on the corresponding micro-level developments (Blackwell et al. 2008.
This‘second culture'is methodologically more exploratory than traditional technology roadmapping. The roadmaps are approached not as‘hermetic'plans to achieve definite goals (e g. new products),
but instead they are approached as knowledge umbrellas that depict a large-scale strategy picture of a system.
Strategy roadmapping is also about engaging and empowering people. This idea links the strategy roadmapping to organization and strategy studies, especially to strategy crafting (Whittington and Cailluet 2008;
Heracleous and Jacobs 2008. IPRM can be compared to a transition management (TM) framework. TM was developed in The netherlands in the early 2000s (e g.
Rotmans et al. 2001. The aim of TM is to connect micro-scale technical niches into macrosccal landscape developments through the middle-scale of a socio-technical regime (Geels 2004:
First, IPRM springs from a roadmapping tradition and thus places significant emphasis on the process and systematic form of information.
It means that different parts of the roadmap are formed in a systemmati workshop process that includes several stakeholdders iteration and feedback,
but the data is presented also in a visual roadmap structure. Secondly, in IPRM the long-term thinking is dependent on the subject under study.
The second way to apply a roadmapping approach to policy design is to facilitate systemic change by identifying those societal needs
With regard to a set of pressing‘grand challennges such as climate change, an aging population, depletiio of mineral resources or shortages of food and water, roadmapping can identify latent societal demand, for example, in the context of sustainability.
Roadmapping can articulate these needs more explicitly and link them with emerging technological and industrial development.
a roadmap synthesizes and depicts the participants'common understanding of future societal and market needs. The fourth way to use roadmaps is with visionary strategizing.
This refers to a‘cross-over'knowledge that builds on understanding the interfaces between the layers of the roadmap
for example societal drivers, markets, soluttion and technologies in a certain timeframe. A roadmap can create an analytic structure for understandiin how
and when the‘push'created by new technologies and the‘pull'driven by market demand are likely to match,
either singular technologies or logical temporal sequences, in the roadmap structure. When the business environment follows the systemic logic of a value network rather than the more linear logic of a value chain,
the level of systemic transformation (transformation roadmap) and the level of enablers (technology roadmaps. However, it depends on the case
whether the particular enabling roadmaps are necessary or whether it is sufficient to map the enablers at the level of a systemic transformation roadmap.
In Section 4, for example, we present an example of a more focused sectoral roadmap (the construction industry in the Victoria Technology roadmap, Australia) in
which the enablers are mapped in the transformation roadmap, and a roadmap of environmenntall sustainable ICT, in which the enablers are mapped separately as three technology roadmaps.
The structure of the systemic transformation roadmap is presented in Fig. 1. This roadmap depicts the impacts of the objects under scrutiny (e g. new industrial practice and emerging service business) in an overall systemic level.
In a transformation roadmap the system could refer to an entity consisting of different actors, for example, in the health value network and the regulatory context of this network,
as in the case of the health sector, or the Innovation policy roadmapping. 181 system could also refer to a convergence of sectors, for example in the case of functional foods.
The key idea of a transformation roadmap is to connect the development of technologies and innovations to a wider societal sphere.
The aim is to endorse the formation of policy conclusions based on an in depth understanding of the technological developments and their socioeconomic frameworks.
The first roadmap level in a transformation roadmap is drivers. This level depicts the key drivers
and the so-called‘grand challenges'that are assessed as the most important factors structuring the roadmap topic.
In IPRM, the second level of policies, policy instruments and regulatory changes is critical. IPRM endorses the positioning of the policy practices in a dynamic socio-technical context,
Fig. 2 presents the subset of a systemic transformation roadmap, the technology roadmap. The critical boundary of the technology roadmap is formed by the long-term vision defined in the systemic transformation roadmap.
The technology roadmap has four potential levels. What levels are utilized depends on the topic: in some cases it is enough to map just the enabling technologies,
yet in some cases the market development and actors play more imporrtan roles. In the first level, technology-based solutions, specific developments of technological solutions are depicted on a level that is assessed as necessary.
'The third possible roadmap level accentuates needs and market developments both the market segments and geograpphica market regions that are important for the technology-based solutions under scrutiny.
There are basically three ways to build roadmaps. The first way is oriented future i e. to define a desired vision and the related future targets,
Hybridization allows the roadmapping process to escape process lock ins that can result from too rigid a process.
Change 3 Change 4 Present stage Change 2 Change 3 Change 4 Technology roadmap 1 Policies:
opportunities based on emerging technologies Technology roadmap 2 Technology roadmap n Figure 1. Generic structure of systemic transformation roadmap. 182.
Roadmap of green and intelligent buildings in Victoria, Australia 4. 1 Background The first case study is a regional-sectoral strategy process,
the Victoria Technology roadmap, made by Intellectual Capital Services (ICS) and VTT, in Victoria, Australia, in 2009.
Commissioned by the Victorian government, the purpose of the Victoria Technology roadmap was to build a synthesizing picture of the effects of emerging technologies and technology convergence in the region of Victoria, Australia, up until the year 2020.
In Fig. 3 we illustrate the outlines of the green and intelligent buildings roadmap in the Victoria Technology roadmap project.
The knowledge required for building the roadmaps was gathered in a systematic process that combined literature scanning expert interviiew and an assessment workshop.
segments, geography Capabilities, resources, actors (CRA) CRA developments 2 CRA developments 3 CRA developments 4 Figure 2. Generic structure of technology roadmap.
Innovation policy roadmapping. 183 4. 2 Outline of the transformation roadmap In this case, the roadmap knowledge was crystallized in a transformation roadmap (Fig. 3). The working vision for the green and intelligent buildings roadmap,
OLED) Figure 3. Transformation roadmap of green and intelligent buildings in Victoria, Australia. 184. T. Ahlqvist et al. to support regional strategy processes by executing systematti rounds of global market foresights.
In this roadmap, sectoral development is divided into the themes of market and solutiions The present markets are fragmented and emphasiiz suboptimization by price.
Innovation policy roadmapping. 185 5. Case study 2: Roadmap of environmentally sustainable ICT, Finland 5. 1 Background The second case study is a roadmap of an emerging systemic field:
environmentally sustainable ICT. It was completed as a strategic process at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland in 2010, with two aims:
The aim of the roadmap is to form a perspecctiv on the issue based on VTT's technological expertiis
In the roadmap, ICT for environmental sustainability is defined as the use of ICT for optimising societal activities
The case example consists of a transformation roadmap (see Fig. 4) and a technology roadmap (see Fig. 5). The roadmapping process was completed in three working phases.
Phase I was a landscaping phase that was realized in three steps. The first step was desktop research.
The third step was the selecctio of the relevant themes for the actual roadmapping process.
Phase II was the roadmapping. First, a specific roadmapping core group was set up. Secondly, an expert workshop with 16 technology experts was organized.
Phase III involved the elaboration of the roadmap. The first step was a round of comments in
which selected technollog experts iterated the results of the roadmapping workshop. The second step was the updating of the roadmap document.
The third step was an extensive round of commenting on the document. The roadmap was finalized then. 5. 2 Outline of the transformation
and technology roadmaps This example of environmentally sustainable ICT demonstrrate an innovation policy roadmap that is constructed of a systemic transformation roadmap and a technology roadmap
which is a subset of the transformation roadmap. The long-term vision, targeted towards the year 2025,
for the roadmap of environmentally sustainable ICT was the following: ICT will increasingly be present in our everyday private and business life.
It has contributed to decreasing the resource consumption and resource-intensive lifestyles in many ways. ICT offers achievable data and easy-to-use tools for the people to decrease their ecological footprint
and to select more environmentally sustainable products and services. Smart production and recycling technologies have resulted in Drivers Present Medium term Long term Vision Technology roadmap 1:
Empowering people Policies: instruments and regulatory changes Sectoral development: solutions, convergence, disruptions Key enablers Technology roadmap 2:
Extending natural resources Technology roadmap 3: Optimizing systems Increasing awareness of global consequences of climate change Economic recession Emission trading starts to have effect on companies Rising living standards in BRIC countries Green values:
duration, upgradeability, recyclability Global treaties, initiatives and campaigns on environmental questions Shortage of fossil fuels and fresh water Standardization of green monitoring solutions REGULATION AND DEMAND-SIDE POLICIES:
seamless integration of virtual and physical Cross reality applications Advanced virtual solutions and services e g. in health Figure 4. Transformation roadmap of environmentally sustainable ICT, Finland. 186.
Sustainable decisions are supported also by governmmenta regulation and other incentives. 5. 3. Transformation roadmap 5. 3. 1 Drivers.
virtual worlds ICT solutions, like cloud computing, for smart grids Electricity storages for smart grids 3d Internet technologies Figure 5. Technology roadmap on‘extending natural resources'as a subset of a transformation
roadmap of environmentally sustainnabl ICT. Innovation policy roadmapping. 187 role. The utilization of smart metering and sensor technologies could result in more elaborate energy consumpptio information,
from both temporal and load profile perspectives. The new energy consumption informattio could enable novel business models and the provisiio of new digital services for diverse stakeholders, such as:
technology roadmap on‘extending natural resources'In the final part of the case study section we present an example of a technology roadmap constructed as a subset of the transformation roadmap (see Fig. 5). The topic of the exemplary roadmap is‘extending natural resources'.
'The roadmap has two levels: technology-enabled solutions and enabling technologies. 5. 4. 1 Technology-enabled solutions.
We discussed how the roadmapping approach can create strategic guidance for identifying the type of steps required for transformation towards a shared vision to take place.
The roadmapping approach represents a form of foresight which can contribute to dealing with the web of future dependencies.
The first case study (green and intelligent buildings in Victoria Australia) was an example of a transformmatio roadmap that was completed as part of a wider regional strategy for industrial renewal.
We conclude this paper by emphasising two related contribuution that the roadmapping approach can bring to innovation policy and forward-looking policy design.
First, innovation policy roadmapping contributes to enhancing the systemic benefits of foresight. Our conclusiion support the views of Georghiou
the roadmapping approach can combine issues of strategic intervention with potential lock ins and systemic interdependencies.
Identification of these complementary elements and associated interdependencies is an important contribution that a roadmapping approach can illuminate.
These societal elements can also be grasped in a systematic roadmapping process. Acknowledgements Toni Ahlqvist wishes to thank the Academy of Finland (grant SA 132628) for the financial support that enabled the writing of this paper.
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