and that a main criterion of effectiveness is that it should lead to a reconsideration
First of all, it has moved away from a forecastingtyyp focus on science and technology to an incorporation of first market and then also increasingly social considerations.
One of the key considerations in this process 5 http://www. woodwisdom. tkk. fi/./486 V. Brummer et al./
The main advantage of surveys is that they allow the consideration of very specific regulatory challenges in the future,
Notwithstanding the above general considerations on the principal role of universities in creating knowledge, one should not overlook the significant diversity across the EU at least in three aspects:
Furtherrmore it is beyond the scope of this paper to enter into a detailed consideration of the degree of probability of specific visions.
The former policy approach is based on the consideration that Structural Funds used for promoting improved innovation capabilities can lead to faster, more efficient cohesion processes,
following the considerations presented in 28: a) they progressively lose their power to validate knowledge produced outside their domain b) they maintain their power to validate knowledge produced outside their domain c a new public authority is set up to validate knowledge produced by a large variety of actors d
value considerations and available technological alternatives. However currently, strategic infrastructure planning is carried often out in a very narrow perspective.
infrastructure organizations are confronted with an increasing amount of future uncertainty 3 that calls for a fundamental reconsideration of the former success model, at least in three respects:(
value considerations and system configurations to reduce complexity and ease implementation 1, 4. Given the increased range of uncertainties,
Today a balanced consideration of environmental, social and economic aspects is necessary 16. Strategic planning processes are a key for determining the appropriateness,
context conditions, options and value considerations. Many applications focused on exploring broad ranges of possible future context conditions.
an explicit consideration of differing value perspectives is more recent. We will elaborate these three aspects in some more detail below.
Cagnin and Keenan 19 dub this type of approach as mode 2 foresight that allows the consideration of fundamental changes in paradigms
The variation of interests and in parallel potential conflicts increases with the consideration of political side effects of more radical solutions 36 as well as with different political and societal situations in context scenarios.
Given that conventional planning approaches are optimized for blinding out uncertainties in contexts, system alternatives and value considerations,
However, strategic decisions are taken in a higher degree of reflexivity and transparency through the explicit consideration of the relevant trade-offs.
and to more explicitly evaluate trade-offs associated with specific value considerations. By considering all these aspects
The diagram allows pinpointing ambivalent situations that need a more reflexive consideration. This becomes even more obvious
if a more balanced consideration of goals was taken into account. A final note of caution is appropriate
Furthermore, critical framework conditions were taken into consideration. Climate change effects with extreme weather events might impact the receiving river
was taken actually into consideration. Therefore, RIF provided a context in which uncertainties and trade-offs became a resource for decision makers to provide more robust solutions.
a more discursive and open consideration of uncertainties in context conditions, values and options is needed compared to the established planning practice.
new businesses, climate adaptation) and some recent methodological considerations of the VTT foresight team (especially modular foresight/risk assessment process design that allows flexible tailoring of the process for varying needs and objectives.
Consideration of opinions, attitudes, fears, interests and hopes may then be as important as consideration of clear facts.
in order to take into consideration potential opportunities and risks. The project is ongoing, but preliminary results sound already promising,
which are more capable of taken into consideration the longer time frames than have been common in risk analysis tradition before.
However, just when then does an idea about the future move from wild speculation to plausible and worthy of consideration?
After various considerations a composite structure was deemed to best serve the needs outlined initially. Developments which have taken already place are depicted in one element based on statistical data.
from international foresight activities 3 were taken into consideration, as well as new, creative methods. The themes to be investigated,
future fields were recommended for consideration. They cannot be summarised here but the eight future fields which should be considered with a different perspective were:
There are two overriding considerations (i) the achievement of trust between wide groups of people who have widely differing behavioural characteristics and (ii) the management of a process in
and promoters who project a linear path from their technology option into the future described in Box 1) and attempted to broaden this concentric bias by taking into consideration open-ended nature of their projections and structured explorations of the journey-like
production and use of nanoparticles and the consideration of risks of nanotechnology. 10 Fig. 3 visualizes this (up to 2008.
There is an opening for consideration of soft law due to actors (firms in the main) anticipating (and thus proceeding with caution.
Also that a more formal use of foresight elements could improve the legitimacy and impact of the strategic considerations of research councils and research programmes.
We also argue that a more formal use of foresight elements might improve the legitimacy and impact of the strategic considerations of research councils and research programmes.
if more formal use of foresight elements might improve strategic consideration by research councils and research programmes. 2. Foresight and strategy processes in Research strategy and priority-setting processes have probably always been used by research communities,
Priority-setting exercises should include consideration of both themaati and structural priorities from the outset, given their close interdependence.
Another important consideration is whether the results of priority setting are intended to apply across the total funding landscape
A further related consideration concerns the need to maintain‘variety'in the S&t system, so that there is flexibility to change
which might otherwise be constrained by politicca considerations within an organisational setting. Such positioning can also lead to certain implementation problems,
The international group of experts also emphasised the need to balance any discussion of thematic priorities with a strong consideration of structural priorities.
Several particiipant rightly made the point that consideration of domain priority areas could not be done in isolation from discussions of research infrastructures, the new University, and so on.
since consideration of structural aspects is necessary to set priorities. Moreover, this restriction also tended to isolate the exercise from the other strategic initiatives highlighted in Box 1,
and thus to the consideration of alternative futures had been addressed in the forward-looking part Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 967 of the preceding research programme on the Viennese innovation system,
Note that Figs. 1 and 2 reflect distinctly different considerations. Fig. 1 profiles technology development activity across multiple organizations.
, policy-makers and managers who weigh emerging technology considerations as either their main focus or as contributing factors,
Second, the questionnaires supported the consideration of interfaces in that the panellists were requested to specify which other panels their driving forces
This choice does not mean that the national and regional levels are not to be taken into consideration.
and bringing those issues into the organization for early consideration and action. This article describes the scanning process as SRIC-BI practices it, the importance of open intelligence systems,
and bringing those issues into the organization for early consideration and action. References 1 Mark Buchanan, Power laws and the new science of complexity management
Our contention will be that the validity of this type of approach is being challenged first by a recognition that such priorities cannot exist independently of a consideration of the structures
Normally the full appellation of foresight would be reserved for a process that went beyond this to involve a systematic consideration of socioeconomic and technical drivers
and final outcomes 8. The systemic understanding of innovation processes has challenged conventional technology driven forecasting practices and called for new participatory foresight approaches that address also the consideration of diverse perspectives, formation
consensual foresight objectives and diversity considerations are complementary perspectives which are needed both in attempts to enhance the performance of innovation systems:
At any of these points, members of the workshop may be introducing new insights and considerations, and linking the discussion of posits to practical actions in their own organisations.
and socially embedded process that cannot be understood without taking into consideration its institutional and cultural context.
and other stakeholders taking into consideration social impacts and social dimensions of its value chain in a competitive context as well as its relationships with employees, customers, governments and society at large.
and considerations that are emerging in the landscape of governance due to changes and transformations in society.
risks and uncertainties Uncertainty and risk are only in very rare cases a consideration in transportation planning and transportation policy decision making.
but there has been little specific consideration of how foresight techniques need to PAGE 294 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 294-303, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
which take into consideration local interests insofar as they do not conflict with sustainability principles. In this context, the planning value chain is integrated partially by the need to incorporate environmental planning into every step of the development process.
Consideration of the long term perspective the dealing with the integration problem, complex cause/effect-relations and the inclusion of extra-scientific communicattio already have been practised for a long time.
and methodical approaches of technology assessment for sustainability assessments of technology 2. The requirements on sustainability assessments and their consideration in decision-making represent until now unknown degree of methodical challenges even with regard to very ambitious concepts of technology assessment,
and their results are expected to find consideration in practical decisions. It is no exaggeration to say that the known methodological problems of technology assessment come to a head here. 3. Nanotechnology Nanotechnology is among the most prominent emerging technologies,
The same considerations can be extended easily to the broader ICT ecosystem where Siemens operates as major changes in technologies and ensuing customer demand are again continuously scrambling the boundaries of the business.
These take into consideration the diversity of views across the network and the collective articulation of visions and expectations.
and there is no possibility of comprehending social systems without taking into consideration the connections that individuals establish with their worlds.
and remote sensing should also be taken into consideration as potential areas of collaboration. As a result of the findings above, it was advised that EP
These are given first consideration as potential opportunities for expansion. Fig. 7 shows a detailed Vxinsight view of the lower middle region of the DOE LDRD map.
That is because they were driven initially by cold war considerations that concentrated on functional gains more than on cost
From Figure 1 onwards, we are oriented towards the consideration of the target NEST with full awareness that it does not enter a vacuum it does not have the market to itself.
which in turn can trigger consideration about research, technology management, and policy options. Laying out alternative pathways also raises impact assessment needs.
scenario and workshop were conducted independently in consideration of four global or national challenges. The points of the studies are diversified interdisciplinary
and workshop in consideration of the four global or national challenges. They provided information about scientific and technological possibilities
Using the adaptation of businesses to sustainability considerations as an example, Cagnin and Loveridge (2011) discuss challenges as well as detailed models and processes.
the identification of potential constraints that might stem from economical, technological or societal implications, an assessment of the relevance for basic education and advanced training as well as the consideration of ethical and legal aspects.
Details of the optimum approach depend on the subject matter as well as political considerations. Key results of strategic dialogues are the development of recommendations for the BMBF as input for future research policy.
or consideration of, others Although the RAP is viewed skeptically by Welp et al.,it does provide guidance for strategic dialogues.
and requires managing content and channels while taking into consideration the needs of various stakeholder groups.
B consideration of the existing structure of departments within the Ministry as well as known difficulties in initiating activities across departments;
''PAGE 34 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 4. 3 An emerging set of grand challenges for Ireland research needs and implications A set of 12 challenges was provided for consideration
evolution and policy considerations'',Draft Summary Report, OECD Foresight Forum, Budapest. Russian Energy Strategy: 2030 (2009), Russian Energy Strategy:
and influenced the practice of FTA to show that alignment of approaches, consideration of users'perspectives and divergence,
Hence, alignment of approaches and consideration of users'perspectives, as well as divergence and the need for social shaping seem critical to advance FTA 384 C. Cagnin et al./
risks and traps that require consideration. It could be adapted to serve as an FTA starter kit for combining methods.
making six fundamental theoretical considerations that were accounted not yet for in formal models and/or simulations of technological systems stand out.
and to address some important considerations necessary to answer the question above. The sense one gets from the published literature on this theme is that the to date effort has been in great part centered on the striking similarities between biological evolution
It is presented below a short resume of these missing fundamental considerations: the common denominator to all growth and diffusion phenomena in the living world is the transmission of information,
and evaluations require consideration, without exception, and none should be treated as the single best model representation, true scenario,
. And the uncertainties taken into consideration and their corresponding ranges are displayed in Table 1. 3. 2. The ARD process illustrated 3. 2. 1. No policy
Table 1 gives a high level overview of the key uncertainties that are taken into consideration. Note that we explore across both parametric variations
FTA aims at offering systemic considerations on future developments for dynamically complex issues. The comprehensive exploration of the consequences of combinations of uncertainties that can be offered by EMA is an important component of such future-oriented
such as the late consideration of societal challenges, there are also differences in governance structures. In Germany, disparate sources of knowledge were pooled not
Rigorous assessment of coverage of dimensions of change, to foster the explicit consideration of possibly unrecognised/hidden structural changes Extended openness for diversity,
Common ground of almost all the approaches is the consideration of impact and uncertainty as the main criteria for selecting the factors to be used for actually constructing the scenarios 18.
This requires consideration of social and ecological aspects throughout the entire innovation process. In subsequent phases of the INFU project, the findings were assessed by actors from various stakeholder groups with respect to impacts for society, economy and ecosystems 29.
The consideration of very diverse perspectives can be seen as an important starting point for the assessment of systemic change.
A practical consideration is that much FTA ACTIVITY depends upon expertise but the very act of selecting the experts goes some way to predetermining the outcome.
the consideration of scenario analysis as a method includes both the development and the use of scenarios.
any deployment of future oriented technology analysis (FTA) must be able to take into account trans-border, often global considerations.
While on the other hand, the complicated attributes of international foresight exercises necessitates careful consideration of relevant design and managerial challenges in order to take into account scale, culture,
The consideration of‘glocal'foresight impacts is close to the concept of‘adaptive foresight coined by Weber 22,
the design aimed to ensure the international relevance of the results by taking into consideration previous work both at European and International levels as well as seeking the participation of stakeholders from around the globe.
This was critical to ensure that the developed snapshots would take into consideration not only a European perspective,
Table 1 summarises the main lessons learned using four principles that need to be taken into consideration when designing and managing an international foresight exercise.
The notion of Innovation Foresight is based on the consideration of different dynamics. These include the recognition of challenges facing innovation including the increasing complexity and uncertainty
when designing a strategy that takes into consideration the diversity of views across the value chain and the collective articulation of visions and expectations.
These take into consideration the diversity of views across the value chain and the collective articulation of visions and expectations.
and communication technology. 5 The aim of pooling innovation activities in the ICT market was based on three considerations at the time of its foundation:(
to support strateggi considerations, decisions and actions. In generral this means that the future horizon is divided up into a set of categories that serve as coordinaate (in parallel with the spatial coordinates used by radar
The goal is to provide a reasonably objective basis for the necessary political process (consideration of options,
It started with a general brainstorming on global trends and other socioeconomic considerations that may characterise the context in
and a list of considerations that are relevant for designers of foresight systems, structures and processses The key requirement seems to be creating the close linkages with policy-makers that in turn appear to be mainly dependent upon their sensitivity to futuur challenges,
Secondly, due to a lack of information, potential knowledge spillovers are taken not into consideration (this also happens
Thus, for the assessment of a study, it is necessary to take these two factors into consideration.
a closer comparison of the results of these studies is not possiibl due to large differences with respect to the variables taken into consideration in order to control for selection bias.
and translate to all participants, in a common and understandable way, the main objectives and strategic goals, taking into consideration the possibilities,
The four phases proposed for the development of the SMP (see Fig. 5) were defined to meet the needs of the process, taking into consideration FINEP's culture and experience in planning and management over the years.
taking into consideration the three types of decision-makers normally involved in these activities: governmment private sector, and academia.
and where broader societal considerations inform priority-setting (Laredo and Mustar 2001; Braun 2008. 1. 2 Analytical assumptions On the basis of this discussion, we argue that research priority-setting may take the following (not mutually exclussive directions:
Reflecting the above considerations, this paper starts (Section 2) by presenting the basic elements of innovation
and the need for an operational agenda that takes into consideration a context-sensitive approach required to address specific challenges.
when setting the common strategic research agenda as well as in the implementation phase with equal consideration of market applicability
through articulation of market-shaping expectations and visions and conditions for coordination of market actors that these provide Structuring role of FTA allows consideration of future market applicability of different alternatives alongside with research excellence needed to foster their development Capacity
This simplified conceptual frame allows consideration of variants of FTA and their effectiveness in tackling a range of futures and related needs.
The sub-sections that follow begin with a discussion of the considerations and choices concerning the exercise's design,
possibly informed by greater consideration of the environment. State sovereignty, regionalism and globalism: The scale at which policy (such as that on the environment) will be determined is not clear.
policy-makers expressed doubts about whether they would be taken into further consideration because they were aligned not sufficiently with the policy agendas.
but have not been taken sufficiently into consideration by policy and society thus far. Additionally the timing of bringing up signals or emerging issues could be a crucial factor for their further consideration in the policy-making arena.
Timing seems to be a general challenge with early signal analysis. Due to the novelty of issues the evidence basis at the beginning is rather weak
A reconsideration of the policy agenda of BEPA, together with a collective analysis of all issues
in order to give some examples of these different views of global challenges that were starting points for the Fraunhofer considerations. 2. 1. 1 First example.
The information generated is made available through a variety of media for consideration in policy-making, advanced training
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