TA must in some cases revisit its approaches and toolbox of techniques to ensure that outcomes can be taken up in the decision-making process.
A three-level framework on the case of nanotubes is presented to analyse and visualise the dynamics in three interrelated context:
In the case of foresight, we primarily discuss the shortcomings of current practices that motivate AF.
Technology foresight is an obvious case simply from the name, as is adaptive planning although that term is much less well established
In some cases (e g. the UK Foresight Mark I) the influence seems to have been quite important
In many other cases, the impact chains are at least difficult to trace, because the influence on participants'mindsets and decisions is hard to observe,
while on the other hand not capitulating to the conventional wisdom as might be the case if too harsh requirements to build on well established scientific results are imposed on foresight At the stage of impressionist knowledge,
Moreover, the impact and effectiveness of policies depend on their time of implementation. 2. 2. 3. Portfolios of options We have used so far the term package to catch the need to combine a number of elementary options to achieve a robust,
This suggests an approach more inspired by portfolio selection in financial economics. However, it must be kept in mind that despite advances in modularity,
In the case of external drivers it is often useful to have participants distinguish between drivers that are important and stable (say,
specification of exploratory framework scenarios In either of the cases at the end of Phase 2, the scenario ideas need much additional development.
and intervention that can serve as an important input to the subsequent portfolio analysis. In principle,
identification of collective strategies (portfolio analysis) So far, individual scenarios have been developed, refined and analysed. Each of the scenarios and pathways can be characterised in terms of technologies
From today's perspective, portfolio analysis then looks across the scenarios in order to assess and select those technology options
identification of individual strategies (portfolio analysis) In analogy to Phase 8, this is the counterpart at the individual client organisation level of Phase 7. 3. 2. 11.
realisation and coordination Developing policy options and portfolios, and even policy strategies is just an input to actual policy design and implementation.
to the identification of new socio-technical options, to the growing knowledge and understanding of their impacts, to the design of new types of policy options and to their integration into portfolios.
and in the best case play an implicit coordinating function for their decision-making. In practice, processes of scenario developments and portfolio analysis will hardly be conducted on a continuous basis
but at best be repeated every few years, for instance in line with an update of the overall technology and innovation policy strategy.
it supports strategic thinking about portfolios of options across different scenarios and during different phases of the policy cycle.
First attempts to evaluate research portfolios systematically from a real options perspective have been made 52 this is at least potentially a step towards greater complexity.
Research and Energy in Swedish Politics, Akademilitteratur, Stockholm, 1984.28 K. M. Weber, Foresight and portfolio analysis as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making, in:
Econ. 5 (1977) 147 176.52 B. Schauer, R&d portfolio selection considering risk and project interrelations, Phd thesis, University of Technology Vienna, Vienna, 2007.
Robust Portfolio Modeling Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 Corresponding author.
and multi-criteria analyses based on Robust Portfolio Modeling (briefly RPM Screening; see 9, 10. Particular attention is given to the development of a foresight design that responds to scalability requirements (e g.,
which is a variant of the Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) methodology for the analysis of innovation ideas and innovative concepts 9, 10,18, 19.
Initially, RPM has been developed for project portfolio selection problems in settings where incomplete information about criterion weights
The value of entire portfolios of research issues is additive, too, because the value of a portfolio is obtained by summing the values of its constituent issues.
In Woodwisdom-Net there were no estimations on how costly potential research projects on the issue might;
consequently, the RPM analysis was carried out by identifying alternative portfolios of 7 research issues that could be regarded as attractive in view of incomplete preference information about the relative importance of the assessment criteria.
In RPM, the analysis in the presence of incomplete information is based on the computation of all nondomiinate portfolios (i e.,
, portfolios such that there does not exist any other portfolio which would offer a higher overall value for all feasible criterion weights;
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 maker would not choose a dominated portfolio,
because it would be possible to find another nondomiinate portfolio that would offer a higher overall value.
Based on the identification of non-dominated portfolios, it is possible to determine for each issue its Core Index (CI),
defined as the ratio between i) number of non-dominated portfolios the issue belongs to and ii) the number of all non-dominated portfolios.
this issue is contained in all non-dominated portfolios; and conversely, if its index is 0,
it does not belong to any non-dominated portfolios. In effect, it follows that issues with a CI value of one should be selected,
Change 74 (5)( 2007) 608 626.10 J. Liesiö, P. Mild, A. Salo, Preference programming for Robust Portfolio Modeling and project selection, Eur.
Policy 1 (1)( 2004) 70 88.18 J.,Liesiö, P.,Mild, A.,Salo, Robust Portfolio Modeling with incomplete cost information and project interdependencies, Eur.
Res. in press. 19 M.,Lindstedt, J.,Liesiö, A.,Salo, Participatory development of a strategic product portfolio in a telecommunication company, Inter.
Very illustrative examples of the relevance of patents as early indicators for upcoming standardisation activities are the case of GSM 26.
and inquiries about the location of luggage or an individual (with that person's approval) are done commonly through the internet from home
A first approach was launched in Germany by a study to identify future themes for standardisation based on the negative experiences in the case of nanotechnology,
Econ. 34 (16)( 2002) 1985 1998.26 R. Bekkers, G. Duysters, B. Verspagen, Intellectual property rights, strategic technology agreements and market structure the case of GSM
This is the case with incremental innovation in established technological paradigms. For new and emerging fields of science and technology (S&t) where architectural (radical innovations might occur 1,
This is especially the case for the recent European Networks of Excellence and Technology platforms have to deal with:
Noes have to combine‘vertical'or bottom-up management of a portfolio of research projects with‘horizontal'stimulation of science-to-industry innovation chains.
This includes actors outside the network, in the case of nanotechnology, start-ups and SMES which have a lot at stake in entering such risky innovation chains.
and tools for portfolio and project management. 519 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The point we make is that technological uncertainty
portfolio creation) reflections on what road to take for actors such as research groups, or start-ups), or which roads to support (for programme managers).
In the DC-3 case engineers were singled out as the drivers of the development. In other situations, it may be a continuing product-use combination (cf. the recent trajectory of mobile telephony),
In the case of cell-on-a-chip this notion of path can be taken as a projected socio-technical path in the overall field of cell-on-a-chip, where current projections,
In this case path is like a business model, a plan to connect the present to the future.
In both cases managing for the most desirable path is the goal, be it on the individual actor level (such as an entrepreneur) or on the level of the paradigm (national agencies, international consortia).
and use them to direct the portfolio of research lines within the network would be attractive (management issue 1 see Section 1). In addition,
In a number of cases, some of these devices have been integrated into a simple experimental system (cf.
T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Such an MPM-1 can be useful for developing a portfolio of research projects
creation and ongoing analysis of a portfolio of relevant research. Innovation chains are specific and there is a lot at stake for those who attempt at creating
In this case we left the technical steps in the chain as part of the axis whilst the content of the map focused on organizational arrangements and roles of actors at different stages of the chain.
Large industry will be unwilling to invest in such niche markets (such is the case in pharmaceutical industry.
One of the participants gave a case example: a large multinational pharmaceutical company initiated the development of a prototype integrated device for chemical analysis with a number of start-up companies 17 For some more information on this and other elements of the Frontier FTA programme,
For example, the University of Hull's crime scene forensic device is one case where funding was given to develop a prototype device for DNA analysis,
In the University of Twente case, we see a spin-off company becomes the system integrator for a specific application.
In the University of Hull case, we see a research group becomes the systems integrator and builds its network around them with a view to transition to a company after proof of concept. 6. Discussion
MPM can be of use at the level of research group leaders, portfolio managers, and start-up companies.
programme managers in particular can use it to be flexible in the selection of projects into a portfolio,
and over time, reshape the portfolio. MPM helps answering relevant questions such as: What specific kinds of innovation chains can be stimulated?
The maps can be used to train programme officers/portfolio managers on anticipated issues along respective innovation chains,
U. Fiedeler, Assessing Emerging technologies Methodical Challenges and the Case of Nanotechnologies, EU US Seminar: New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 2004, pp. 13 14.29 S. Kuhlmann, et al.
the case of nanotubes, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111.48 R. O. van Merkerk, D. K. R. Robinson, Characterizing the emergence of a technological field:
Supporting innovation-based growth Achievement of long-term reform of the productive system through a raised emphasis on high technology Making the case for increased investment in R&d More informed STI priorities
and specificities of the cases examined, then it will be possible to construct a common impact assessment framework.
It should also be noted that the literature on technology assessment programmes is also relevant to the case of foresight programmes.
'The Malta case is a good example of an inclusiveness approach involving a wide variety of actors
The Maltese case is also a good example of the high returns on investment associated with foresight training.
Impact assessment framework foresight system (based on the cases of UK, Sweden and Malta. b: Impact assessment framework wider environment (based on the cases of UK, Sweden and Malta.
551 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Given that all the elements of a foresight system can now be identified,
Thus the author concludes that in those cases where these elements are most important, then hierarchies are applied better.
However, it can work in cases of diminishing rivalry or the pursuit of a common vision.
Evidence from three foresight cases (UK, Sweden, and Malta) indicates that it is possible to identify internal criteria
in order to identify case-specific internal criteria and external factors. A first attempt was made to study the specificities of the areas relating to networking and actor alignment, mainly based on organisational behaviour and governance theories.
using the case of EU universities as an example, to rectify these shortcomings. A set of‘cascading'visions are devised to demonstrate the close links between three levels.
in all these cases the 1 See, e g. the harsh critique by a former British minister of Education and Skills published in The Guardian on 10 may 2003,
using the case of EU universities as an example, to rectify these shortcomings. As the above list of factors that shape the future of universities reveals,
The second refers to lists of priorities and proposed actions (for different stakeholders, in this case e g. university rectors and deans, regional, national and EU policy-makers, businesses and local communities as partners of universities), inputs
In other words, we can regard the former case an‘absolute'failure, while the latter one a‘relative'failure.
Thus, two cases have been selected to be considered when building ERIA visions: A) Double success and B) Successful multi-speed EU. What sort of ERIA would be needed to support an‘externally'successful, cohesive EU (Double success?
Double success case Trends, driving forces Universities Largely unchanged universities Radically reformed universities The role/mission of universities The main emphasis is on teaching and‘basic research'(science for the sake of science), not much interaction
competition for talents Same as in the Double success case A large (r) number of EU universities become attractive for talents from advanced Triad regions Conscious efforts on a‘one-way street'type
brain-drain from laggard regions to flourishing ones, promoted by grants offered by universities located in the advanced regions Integration of RTDI activities (across national borders) Same as in the Double success case,
hence, before being used in a real-life case, its costs and benefits need to be analysed. The benefits of this proposed method are discussed by using the example of the EU, ERIA and EU universities.
as well as for decision-makers in general, a main advantage can be that major strategic decisions in our case on the overall rationale of the EU policies
in that case, however, another level needs to be introduced, namely the national one. For the stakeholders of universities their leaders, staff, students, businesses, the relevant community around them, be it local,
as opposed to the case when universities are chosen as the unit of analysis:(i) the likely impacts of potential changes in the broader socioeconomic systems, in which universities operate,
and analysis. Participation is particularly important in the case of universities: given their vital roles in generating,
The paper makes a convincing case for how one needs new tools to enable effective international positioning for comparative understanding about national innovation ability and performance.
A Case for Critical systems Thinking in Nanotechnology; examines how vitally important the foresight objective of inclusiveness in the embracement of diverse stakeholders is for the credibility of an innovation process.
they develop the case for ensuring that foresight offers a democratic rather than just a technocratic input to the future and to the policy processes
Priority areas for Australia's future features an excellent case example of the importance and learning being experienced from the application of novel FTA METHODOLOGIES to explore the possibilities offered by the use of nanotechnologies to contribute to new and improved approaches to energy conversion,
These concepts are explored further in this paper with a case exploring a software technology known as AJAX.
The seed, in this case, is the computing page on Ajax. At this disambiguation page AJAX the computing technology has been distinguished from other meanings of the word Ajax.
which they struggle to encode within the network of scientific progress Polanyi 35 Changes in technology in this case are manifested in changes in network structure Knowledge is built upon the configuration of knowledge claims,
and is distributed therefore a characteristic of science Lakatos 34 Changes in network structure in this case are diffuse,
These claims are given in Table 3. Corresponding evidence from this case are displayed in this table, and further discussed below.
In the case discussed, the technique did appear to anticipate significant standards setting activity, as well as presaging a significant reorganization of the science and technology database to better match technological progress.
Despite the apparent promise of this approach, the method has only been tried on a single case with limited validation.
In this case it might be possible that the structure of the Ajax (Programming) hyperlink network is relatively stable,
Furthermore, its standard case of application has been to direct and prioritize science, technology and innovation policy measures.
Context scenarios are especially important in the case of infrastructures as there is a high interdependence between the long term oriented infrastructure
As a benchmark, we will briefly review typical applications in the field of transportation as this represents the most widely addressed empirical application case.
but also acted as process facilitators and moderators of the workshops and sessions in the empirical application cases.
we want to illustrate the individual steps of the procedure by presenting experiences gained in a specific pilot case in The swiss sanitation sector. 4. 1. Strategic planning in The swiss sanitation sector The swiss sanitation sector can be considered a success
three more or less representative cases for small to medium-sized sanitation systems were selected as pilot cases of the RIF method.
These cases were run between late 2006 and early 2008. In the next section, we present the process
and results of the Kiesental case that allows illustrating the different elements of the method
the regional association decided to run a pilot RIF case to explore and assess different cooperation strategies within the region of the hydrological catchment of the river Kiese and the neighboring part of the Aare valley.
In the case of the high quality of life scenario, the possibility to recycle water was very important from an overall point of view,
we could considerably improve the range of critical context conditions 7. As experienced in our empirical application case,
In this paper, we argued repeatedly that infrastructure sectors represent a special case for strategic decision making, particularly in the case of OECD countries.
and the basic sustainability criteria are similar to the one in the sanitation case, the options considered
The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement,
The experiences of the method development in the INNORISK case companies have been positive. Dominating feature in all cases has been that the top management of the companies has been involved actively in the development processes.
Active involvement of the decision makers in the analysis allowed them to have a broad and realistic image about opportunities and risks related to the new (potential) business.
diverse informative axis (see Fig. 4). The case projects of this paper seem to position themselves into two diverse parts of the axes:
Fig. 4. Case projects positioned in view of the dimensions of outcomes (informative vs. instrumental), future perspectives (consensual vs. diverse) and in the coordinate system of stakeholder engagement (extensive vs. exclusive) and management
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 The positioning of the case projects in the Fig. 4 can be explained by the types of projects:
and some other methods are better in analysing the case more detailed. Cases are also in different scales,
which tend to shift the method use into certain direction: abstract level strategic design goes towards foresight methods
which is often the case for example in Delphi exercises. o Autonomous management, in turn, refers to the process intermediated by the co-ordinators,
which maybe the case for example in expert panel work. Extensive vs. Exclusive stakeholder engagement o Extensive stakeholder engagement refers to the approach in
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 4. 3. Lessons learned from the case projects The basic lessons learned from the case projects are shown in Table 1. The case projects of this paper (IRRIIS, INNORISK,
However the case projects show that there is potential in integrating the risk assessment and the FTA METHODOLOGIES.
Risk assessment process requires also a more detailed description of the target of the analysis Table 1 The lessons learned from the case projects.
Mr. Pekka Maijala and Mr. Pasi Valkokari (INNORISK project) from VTT for providing valuable discussions and material concerning the case projects.
ISPIM, 2008.37 R. Molarius, N. Wessberg, J. Keränen, J. Schabel, Creating a climate change risk assessment procedure hydropower plant case, Finland,
portfolio theory, or decision trees have proven somewhat helpful in decision making in uncertainty, the field is still very primitive.
But, in fact, the opposite is the case. We ignore probabilities in our decisions. In Tversky's example, Sam is a meek, retiring, helpful, tidy, soft-spoken person.
or any indicator system in that case, to have a sound theoretical and methodological basis 1,
'and in most cases were developed no longer. The second phase (see Fig. 2) of the searches ended with a first assessment of the topics that were found.
the BMBF portfolio and information gathered from within BMBF about specific foresight activities in the specialist divisions.
In these cases, the expected impact of the process will be an addition to the research agenda,
this will be performed very concretely in the thematic cases which are identified. Also for them, in joint workshops and discussions, the topics and outcomes will be worked into recommendations for policy options.
Therefore, every foresight exercise has an impact on the system the foresight is performed in, in this case the BMBF and the policy as well as the innovation system.
which is in many cases the basis for very new things to come. This can be a lesson for other foresight activities, too.
Notwithstanding the fact that many strategic policy documents extend their validity beyond legislative cycles (take the case of national sustainable development strategies for example) a short-term,
as in the case of global environmental assessments such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment or the IPCC, work on the systematization of methods
(and either might be the case) scenario practitioners need to pay more attention to windows of opportunity, the areas of maximum uncertainty and doubt,
Further efforts should be directed to learn more systematically from cases of good practice and to synthesize this knowledge base within a comparative analysis.
Paper prepared at the invitation of the Woodrow wilson International Center for Scholars Foresight and Governance Project, 2002.34 L. Fuerth, Strategic Myopia, the Case for Forward Engagement, The National Interest, Spring
A case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology Denis Loveridge, Ozcan Saritas Manchester Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9pl Manchester, UK a r
The current paper discusses the application of the‘situation'cum CSH metaphor for the case of nanoscience,
from defining its purpose to implementing the outcome then becomes a major challenge. 1. 2. The case for Inclusive foresight Widening the scope of consultation and making Foresight into a much wider social process,
The case for inclusivity comes directly out of the need to recognise the following: -The assumption that all technologies are desirable
which is very far from the case. Nano artifacts depend on the convergence of sets of sciences and technologies, elsewhere called genus sciences and technologies 23, of very different kinds for their evolution into feasible and (hopefully) desirable artifacts.
& Social Change 1. 1. Anticipatory coordination for the responsible development of nanotechnology These general challenges become very specific in the case of nanoscience and nanotechnology.
and deep case research 4 into scenario narratives which place emphasis on the how paths to the future may unfold
and their internalisation 3. 1. A project is initiated In Autumn 2007 (as still the case 2 years on) there was an increasing emphasis on societal impact and embedment of nanotechnology applications.
I carried out case research into the field, analysed the recent history and current situation and developed three co-evolutionary scenarios showing plausible playings out of technology innovations
In the case of the Frontiers Noe for nanotechnology, the programme involved research and preparation of these scenarios an input to 1-day multi-stakeholder workshops
where the complexities of the case, as well as the exploration of positions, stances and perspectives of the stakeholders, where probed
and case analysis to find expectations of various actor groups and entanglements between groups and particular elements of RRI.
In this case a technology 12 Nanodiablog crosses all three motivations for engagement. The normative motivation is set down in the EU Action plan
A case of focused alignment of R&d agendas in national initiatives can be seen. One example
The specificity of the case related to opportunities to cut costs, reduce use of chemicals and improve manufacture.
This was the case at the time of writing w. r. t. the UK voluntary initiative.
A case of focused national initiatives can be seen. One example, Finland begins to invest in nanotechnology for paper processing (a major contributor to the Finnish economy) Anticipatory coordination and lock in:
The specificity of the case related to opportunities to cut costs, reduce use of chemicals and improve manufacture.
The report shows various gaps and issues (this was the case with the DEFRA report already.
The Finnish case sparks of a chain of enquiries into nano-regulation, and a number of lines of R&d grind to a halt pending further investigation Finnish case triggers a temporary moratorium:
because of huge sunk investment Finland begins to suffer..Finnish economy begins to suffer due to the high sunk investments into nanotechnology based infrastructure.
6. Evaluation and discussion These co-evolutionary scenarios can prepare the ground for discussion of complex potential radical technologies via the combination of endogenous futures, the IC+framework and deep case research into actors
In this case they were used by participants as a resource for discussing the complexities of potential multi-actor multilevel de/re alignments and the effects on nanotechnology emergence.
While in the annotated scenario, the Finnish worker case, and some of the actions and reactions given are contingent,
the emergence of windows of opportunity for action (stemming from the Finnish worker case being part of the coevollutio of emerging nanotechnology options in paper production and risk and regulation landscape),
This aids the scenario creator, in my case I could place amidst the three scenarios some major stances and strategies of various actors,
Two Cases full of Contingencies, Lock outs, and Lock ins, in: Yearbook Sociology of the Sciences, Berlin etc:
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