Planning

Adaptive planning (26)
Conventional planning (4)
Long-term planning (11)
Planning (288)
Planning process (13)
Regional planning (10)
Strategic planning (103)

Synopsis: Planning:

the purpose of the analysis (awareness raising, envisioning, consensus building, corporate technology planning, etc; the reliability of source information;

To some extent convergence of opinion and broad measures of agreement were voiced that integrating FTA METHODS with established processes of strategic planning is difficult

accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Adaptive foresight has been developed at the crossroads of foresight and adaptive strategic planning. Innovation is seen as increasingly complex, interdependent and uncertain and therefore in need of broad and multidiscipplinar exploration and participation.

The adaptive planning paradigm provides a natural guide for navigation of this complex landscape: one should consider

Adaptive planning; Real options; Scenario planning; Neo-Schumpeterian economics; Evolutionary economics; Social studies of technology; Policy strategy Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 Corresponding author.

Under the headline of Adaptive foresight (AF) it combines elements from the foresight and adaptive planning traditions.

Adaptive planning is given a relatively elaborate treatment. In the case of foresight, we primarily discuss the shortcomings of current practices that motivate AF.

as is adaptive planning although that term is much less well established and therefore will be given more elaboration in

We, therefore, see adaptive planning as a way to overcome this lack of realism in much foresight work

But this of course within the confines of linear innovation processes. 2. 2. Adaptive planning The type of (self-criticism levelled in the closing part of the previous section is in no way new to the foresight community,

it is our contention that in all three respects it is particularly useful to draw on insights from adaptive planning (AP). This approach,

adaptive planning suggests postponing decisions until we know more about the usefulness of different options that are kept open in the meantime.

adaptive planning provides a framework for developing forward-looking strategies and options for individual actors. Thirdly, adaptive planning takes into account the accumulation of knowledge

and thus at least over time should be able to overcome the impressionism of conventional foresight, while on the other hand not capitulating to the conventional wisdom as might be the case

adaptive planning thus recommends only guarded action, but by being sensitive to the degree of maturity of knowledge,

Adaptive planning (AP) as one of the constituents of Adaptive foresight belongs to a strand of strategic planning that stresses the limitations to both foreseeing and controlling future developments.

A key dichotomy to adaptive planning is the one between one-stage vs. sequential decision-making. The decision-making we have in mind here is of strategic character,

say, investment planning for fire-fighting. 469 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 information on any particular fire and consequently it will have to build on more generic knowledge on different sorts of fires, their probabilities and the like.

or with greater probability of success than otherwise. 11 Adaptive planning then is strategic planning that handles uncertainty by considering robustness,

Early frameworks for strategic planning build on a structural approach: Typically a handful of alternative structures a type of visionary scenarios are constructed

In a sequential planning exercise the typical approach is to try to construct a first-period structure that is 11 Sometimes an adaptive option can be inherent in an operational asset. 470 E. A. Eriksson,

Adaptive planning does not mean to keep all options open as long as possible. Rather it is to carefully strike a balance between strategic commitment and strategic opportunism, e g. in view of the above bullet 19.

and adaptive planning The preceding section outlined the conceptual foundations of Adaptive foresight. The term Adaptive foresight"itself was introduced only recently 28,29

This is a key tenet of adaptive planning. Conventional foresight approaches have tended to stress the ability to shape the future by initiating participatory processes involving key actors,

Also this is an immediate consequence of and an input into adaptive planning. Adaptive with respect to the balance between participatory elements and closed internal processes.

see footnotes 14 21.478 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 years of experience with foresight, adaptive planning

More specifically, we believe that it is powerful in overcoming some of the shortcomings of conventional foresight by adopting notions of adaptive planning:

and navigating the complex information bases that adaptive planning necessitates should be a priority. Another issue is bringing the real options approach to bear at more than just the conceptual level.

Such applications are well in line with early ideas on using real options for bridging the gap between strategic planning and investment 51.

the regional planning of health services, J. Oper. Res. Soc. 37 (1986) 463 478.12 H. Cameron, L. Georghiou, M. Keenan,

Many networks and platforms have dedicated working groups or programmes on foresight, strategic planning and anticipation of societal and ethical hurdles to innovation based on emerging technologies.

At the level of Frontiers the tool has been taken up in official documents as MPM-1 was included in the first round strategic planning document known as the Frontiers Roadmap for 2006/2007.

Change 14 (2005) 1 13.16 R. Phaal, C. J. P. Farrukh, D. R. Probert, Technology roadmapping A planning framework for evolution and revolution, Technol.

Change 71 (2004) 141 159.26 F. Lizaso, G. Reger, Linking roadmapping and scenarios as an approach for strategic technology planning

Improving Distributed intelligence in Complex Innovation systems, Final Report of the Advanced Science and Technology policy Planning Network (ASTPP.

for strategic planning (again, at different levels. The type of intended outcomes always depends on the design (objectives) of a foresight programme,

however, does not imply that national (regional) factors can be neglected in actual prospective analyses (e g. strategic planning or foresight programmes).

The Exploratory Analysis of Trade-Offs in Strategic planning: Lessons from Regional infrastructure foresight, deals with a foresight exercise in connection with strategic infrastructure planning.

They argue that foresight allows addressing trade-offs related to context uncertainties, value conflicts and sustainability deficits in a structured way.

The exploratory analysis of trade-offs in strategic planning: Lessons from Regional infrastructure foresight E. Störmer A b. Truffer A d. Dominguez b, W. Gujer b c, A. Herlyn b, H. Hiessl d, H. Kastenholz e

The present paper argues that foresight informed strategic planning, allows addressing trade-offs related to context uncertainties,

Regional foresight Strategic planning Participation Infrastructure 1. Infrastructure planning and foresight In OECD countries, most infrastructure sectors such as electricity supply, water supply and sanitation were constructed over the 20th century by implementing a narrow

Over the past decades, strategic planning in these sectors was focused mostly on narrowing down context uncertainties, value considerations and system configurations to reduce complexity and ease implementation 1, 4. Given the increased range of uncertainties,

these approaches are often deficient with regard to addressing the broad range of uncertainties associated with the long planning horizon (more extensively treated in 5). Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Corresponding

however much less well developed in strategic planning contexts as it often misses the link between analyzing uncertainties to assessing options

and strategic planning is carried mostly out in a very narrow perspective: tending to blind out alternative solutions, context uncertainties and broad goals.

We therefore consider strategic planning in sanitation as an appropriate test domain for the methodology. A similar approach has been presented by Dominguez et al. 2. They utilize infrastructure foresight to identify technological and organizational capability deficits.

In the next section, we lay the ground for combining strategic planning in infrastructures with foresight methodologies. Section 3 presents the procedural outlay of the Regional Infrastructure method and introduces concepts for addressing the trade-offs relative to context uncertainties, conflicts and sustainability deficits.

and strategic planning in infrastructure sectors. 2. Breaking up path dependencies in strategic infrastructure planning 2. 1. Characteristics of infrastructure sectors Infrastructures represent a specific challenge to strategic planning methods.

Particularly in public organizations there is often a wide lack of capabilities for running strategic planning processes 2. Additionally,

Due to the long term horizon of infrastructure decisions, the planning process has to deal with lately increasing uncertainties in different fields.

Strategic planning processes are a key for determining the appropriateness, performance and sustainability impacts of infrastructures over their long life time.

a more elaborate and open approach to strategic planning seems very timely. 2. 2. Foresight supporting infrastructure planning Foresight methods have been developed over the past decades to explicitly address substantial uncertainties in technology development.

Therefore, we may assume that strategic planning in infrastructure sectors could substantially profit from insights gathered in this tradition.

In land-use planning, Xiang and Clarke 29 speak of learning scenarios as vehicles for better specifying preferences for specific ends.

but do embed not explicitly the planning in political decision making processes and are not explicit with regard to different stakeholder preferences 38,42, 44 51.

Framing a strong exploratory approach to strategic planning Based on these experiences, we may now frame the problem of informing strategic infrastructure planning by foresight as follows:

Given that conventional planning approaches are optimized for blinding out uncertainties in contexts, system alternatives and value considerations,

we propose to apply a strong exploratory perspective to these core elements of the strategic planning process.

but is rather an important first step in an overall strategic planning process (Coates 1985 cited in 25).

We take this proposition as a strong invitation to explicitly specify the organizational and procedural interfaces between the exploratory phase in a strategic planning process

and tested a specific method for strategic infrastructure planning, the Regional infrastructure foresight method (RIF. RIF aims at providing an explorative perspective on strategic decision making

and core team sessions are synthesized finally by the core team into a recommendation for strategic planning.

and thus allows escaping the path dependencies encountered in conventional planning processes. The report of the core team is handed finally over to the political decision makers in a final presentation accompanied by the workshop participants.

we want to illustrate the individual steps of the procedure by presenting experiences gained in a specific pilot case in The swiss sanitation sector. 4. 1. Strategic planning in The swiss sanitation sector The swiss sanitation sector can be considered a success

Commissioners of strategic planning processes are interested mostly in low investment costs or low overall costs, while the regulatory agency is concerned with water quality.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Based on a national analysis of The swiss sanitation system 69 and a call for participation in innovative strategic planning processes,

of alternative solutions and of fundamental trade-offs that should be addressed for long term infrastructures planning.

but could not consistently be addressed in the conventional planning framework. While the RIF process in the Kiesental resulted in little surprise with the already prior favored idea for a future sanitation system,

In this process the result was a radically different solution compared to an earlier recommendation gained in a conventional planning process less than two years earlier:

and applied an explorative oriented approach to strategic decision making in infrastructure planning. We argued that due to the long life times of key technical components of these sectors

a more discursive and open consideration of uncertainties in context conditions, values and options is needed compared to the established planning practice.

We developed a specific methodological layout of a strategic planning process the Regional infrastructure foresight method that builds on a combination of foresight approaches that focus on exploratory context scenarios, option assessment and multiple perspectives.

More specifically, we aimed at maximizing the uncertainties considered in the planning process. This enabled the process of explicitly mapping key trade-offs among different strategic options with regard to potential conflicts of interest, surprises in the development of context conditions and potential sustainability deficits.

By carefully defining the interface between the foresight process and the formal strategic planning process we could considerably improve the range of critical context conditions 7. As experienced in our empirical application case,

The affiliations of the core team members in the decision making bodies guaranteed the persistence of the argumentative structure in later stages of the planning process.

References 1 I. Dyner, E. R. Larsen, From planning to strategy in the electricity industry, Energy Policy 29 (13)( 2001) 1145 1154.2 D. Dominguez

strategic planning for the infrastructure sector, Calif. Manage. Rev. 51 (2)( 2009) 30 50.3 OECD, Infrastructure to 2030:

Telecom, Land Transport, Water and Electricity, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2006.4 B. Flyvbjerg, Policy and planning for large-infrastructure projects:

B 34 (2007) 578 597.5 D. Dominguez, B. Truffer, W. Gujer, Tackling uncertainty in infrastructure sectors through strategic planning.

, J. Hertin, Foresight futures scenarios, Developing and Applying a Participative Strategic planning Tool, Greener Management International (37 Special issue on Foresighting for Development), 2002, pp. 37 52.27 G

knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight, Futures 38 (8)( 2006) 942 955.29 W. Xiang, K c. Clarke, The use of scenarios in land-use planning, Environ.

Pract. 2 (3)( 1989) 307 331.36 S. S. Gezelius, K. Refsgaard, Barriers to rational decision-making in environmental planning, Land use Policy 24 (2

promise and reality, Transportation 34 (2007) 397 412.38 C. Zegras, J. Sussman, C. Conklin, Scenario planning for strategic regional transportation planning, J. Urban Plann.

Environ. 8 (5)( 2003) 323 342.40 K. Chatterjee, A. Gordon, Planning for an unpredictable future:

Damian Dominguez did his Ph d. thesis on strategic planning in the wastewater sector at Eawag and ETH Zurich.

(c) Ways to account for uncertainty in decision making,(d) Strategies for planning and management of nonlinear systems operating in the chaotic regime,

A lot of work is needed here. 5. Planning in nonlinear, chaotic systems While most physical and social systems are nonlinear,

The central premise of planning is that forecasting is possible. The policy sciences teach us to identify optimum policies by testing a set of prospective policies on models that simulate the real world

but a whole new set of approaches to planning and systems management need to be invented.

The problem of planning and management of systems operating in the chaotic regime is a frontier of great importance to our field.

Foresight and roadmma exercises are aimed at supporting planning and priority-setting of R&d and have become indispensable elements of policy-making.

Improving distributed intelligence in complex innovation systems, Final Report of the Advanced Science & Technology policy Planning Network (ASTPP), Karlsruhe, 1999.

Moreover, scenario planning can offer a policy risk-free space to visualize, rehearse and test the acceptability of different strategies without being implicated by the actual constraints of day-to-day policy-making.

While numerous alternative methodologies exist for future strategic planning, we limited ourselves mainly to literature on scenario planning,

There are also data available on the types of businesses that use scenarios most often large firms in capital-intensive industries with long (greater than 10 years) planning horizons.

where scenario planning has been part of developing Scotland's 2nd National Planning Framework (NPF), setting out the range of strategic alternatives that were considered as part of the early development of the NPF,

and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures 37 (8)( 2005) 795 812.10 R. J. Lempert, S w. Popper, S. C

Change 17 (2007) 73 85.40 J. A. Dewar, Assumption-based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge, 2002,

Integrating the Environment for Sustainability, Edgar Elgar Publishing, London, 2008, pp. 114 133.42 Scottish government, National Planning Framework 2 SEA Annex to the Environmental Report:

of problem-solving systems, Management Science 23 (10)( 1977) 1099 1108.18 W. Ulrich, 1983 Critical Heuristics of Social Planning:

. Dempster, A self-organizing perspective on planning for sustainability, Thesis for Master of Environmental Studies in Planning, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 1998.21 W. Ulrich, Critical systems heuristics, in:

and the analysis portrayed in this paper is instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.

With its long-term perspective and its emphasis on connecting perspectives of different knowledge areas and different actors and stakeholders, foresight differs from corporate strategic planning,

strategic planning or strategic management is established a well academic discipline that is taught at most business schools and mostly directed towards corporate strategy.

Some authors have suggested that foresight has emerged from the convergence of the three disciplines and practices of policy development, strategic planning and futures studies (Gavigan et al. 2001),

In the 1990s Henry Mintzberg, in a book and two papers (Mintzberg 1994a c), argued that strategic planning focuses too much on analyses

The core group for the strategy development processes, apart from the programme-management staff in the Energy Authority, consisted of representatives from the planning and development departments of the two electricity grid operators.

4) Planning for specific actions and follow-up activities (roadmaps, etc..Steps 1 3 were carried out in 2003 and the first half of 2004,

The rise and fall of strategic planning. Newyork: Free Press. Mintzberg, H. 1994b. Rethinking strategic planning. Part I:

Pitfalls and fallacies. Long Range Planning 27, no. 3: 12 21. Mintzberg, H. 1994c. Rethinking strategic planning.

Part II: New roles for planners. Long Range Planning 27, no. 3: 22 30. Mintzberg, H.,B. Ahlstrand,

and J. Lampel. 1998. Strategy Safari: a guided tour through the wilds of strategic management. Newyork:

Free Press. Nonaka, I. 1994. A dynamic theory of organizational knowledge creation. Organization science 5, no. 1: 14 37.

This‘negotiation'around the remit of the exercise had some immediate effects on both its planning and execution.

However, such deliberative forums require careful planning and must be scheduled appropriately. While this was understood by the FNR Secretariat

Taking into account insights from strategic planning and complle social systems thinking, policy studies are stressing the growing importance of interactions,

municipal planning; stakeholder participation Introduction Foresight is among the most widespread and accepted forms of organised future-oriented activities today. 1 As a widely applied method for dialogical future thinking,

In its ideal form, Foresight today integrates long-term planning,*Email: stefanie. jenssen@tik. uio. no ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2009 Taylor & francis DOI:

In the literature on municipal planning, visioning is regarded as a separate method, as a more direct process of establishing a desired vision of a communal future not necessarily based on different future scenarios. 5 This latter approach is politically crucial for public organisations trying to develop policy and long-term thinking.

'and how the resulting visions should be used in the planning context. As pointed out by Shipley et al.

2004,195) there was virtually no mentioning of visioning as a collective activity within the planning profession before 1990.

There is apparently a need for further investigation into the concrete practises of visioning, especially in the context of local long-term planning,

Konrad and Voß 2006) in designing foresight processes and adaptive planning (Grin, Felix, and Bos 2004; Weber 2006) and as a critical tool in qualitative research (Lynch 2000;

as well as interviews with schoolteachers, politicians, municipal employees in the planning and social development department, visioning workshop participants and foresight practitioners.

and limits of inclusive foresight in municipal planning processes and expounds the challenges of our contemporary understanding of communicative planning tools as power instruments (Pløger 2002).

indicating that without a clear vision of the future long-term planning would only lead to chaos and a waste of time and resources.

At the same time, the municipal project leadership clarified early on how their contributions would be handled in the context of municipal planning.

The social part of the municipality plan is characterised by long-term planning including a broad social approach and substantiation of those visions and goals

During several presentations of the project, the project leaders showed an illustration figuring predators fighting over the right to decide area planning in Germany's capital Berlin (Figure 2).‘Why the young people?'

and scholars have discussed the value of a futures approach in the field of community planning as not necessarily‘in discovering new factual knowledge about sustainable urban developmment

longteer planning and decision-making. 19 If the young were authentic stakeholders, what perspectives and insights were they to contribute to the project?

Norwegian scholars of planning theory have argued that there is little use in trying to separate communication and power in planning processes:‘

21 They argue that one of the problems municipal planning is confronted with is assumed the frequently existence of universal values

which everybody can agree upon. 22 These universal values are being included in laws and regulations on planning procedures with no further reflections upon

and whether planning should be an activity at the service of‘good'(Hagen and Asmervik 2003,5).

The administrative and political leadership's construction of a specific stakeholder image and the preconditioning of the young people's contributions is a good example of exactly this performative way of exercising rhetoric and representative power in a municipal planning process.

This paper is a contribution to the discussion about the relationship between foresight and the democratic challenges of good governance and long-term planning.

) 5. On visioning in municipal planning, see Shipley and Newkirk (1999), Shipley (2002), Shipley et al.

The notions of active citizenship and community involvement have become increasingly promineen in political discussions and policy practices within planning and future oriented governance (Stukas and Dunlap 2002;

when discussing the relationship of planning, power and values:‘‘when we do good we use power.

developing and applying a participative strategic planning tool. Greener Management International 37:37 52. Böhle, K. 2003.

If planning is everything maybe it's everything? New possibilities and roles in municiple and local planning.

Paper presented at Nordic conference, 14 16 august 2003, Lillehammer. http://www. ks. no/upload/4342/p-hagen asmervik. doc (accessed September 2009).

Futures the journal of policy, planning and futures studies. Johnston, R. 2001. Foresight refining the process.

Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 28, no. 2: 219 41. Pløger, J. 2002.

Communicative planning and democracy new perspectives in planning research. NIBR Report no. 17. Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional research. http://www. nibr. no/publikasjoner/rapporter/172/(accessed September 2009.

Rappert, B. 1999. Rationalising the future? Foresight in science and technology policy co-ordination. Futures 31, no. 6: 527 45.

Visioning in planning: is the practice based on sound theory. Environment and Planning A 34, no. 1: 7 22.

Shipley, R.,B. Hall, R. Feick, and R. Earley. 2004. Evaluating municipal visioning. Planning Practice & Research 19, no. 2: 195 209.

Environment and Planning B, Planning and Design 26, no. 4: 573 91. Slaughter, R. A. 2004.

Values and planning. Aldershot: Ashgate. Thygesen, H. 2009. Technology and good dementia care: a study of technology and ethics in everyday care practice.

Foresight and adaptive planning as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making: a conceptuua and methodological approach. In Reflexive governance for sustainable development, ed. J-P. Voß, D. Bauknecht,

in the belief that our analysis may be instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.

or informational (e g. awareness-raising) has implications for planning decisiion that include, among others, choices about how many stakeholder groups will be consulted;

and examine Finnsight in view of axes of balance that are arguably helpful in the planning of foresight exercises The methodological novelties of Finnsight are highlighted,

respectively) took the initiative to launch a joint foresight exercise thatwould provide informational inputs to the shaping of the national strategy and also other strategic planning processes.

with responsibility for the planning and methodological support of the exercise. It was assisted by the guidance that the Steering Group provided through its discussions

review of a decade's futures work, Futures 21 (1989) 447 465.4 H. A. Linstone, Corporate planning, forecasting,

Science & Technology policy Planning Network (ASTPP), Frauenhofer Institute, Systems and Innovation research, Karlsruhe, 1999.7 L. Mermet, T. Fuller, R. van der Helm, Reexamining

and to use the results in planning and decision making. Although the Scan process serves most effectively as an early warning-system system,

Building and Sustaining the Sources of Innovation, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1995, p. 135.6 Eric D. Beinhocker, Sarah Kaplan, Tired of strategic planning?

10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.003 the planning and emergence of knowledge-based clusters is informed often by a vision;

In the planning for the first UK Technology foresight Programme this system was articulated further to introduce the dimensions of cost and timescale 13.

since 1970.6 FTA projects in China in broad sense can be traced to‘‘The 12 Years Science Development Planning''made in 1956,

while many instruments of normative forecasting and planning (e g. relevance trees) are also part of the toolkit.

The design and planning of the FTA can be interpreted as the preliminary‘‘S''phase of the knowledge cycle.

opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues

and fundamentally alters the previous pathways or expected direction of policies, events and planning regimes.

preparing for wild cards in the civil aircraft and asset-management industries, Long Range Planning 42 (1)( 2009) 23 41.

A first example looks at the application of fta methods to transport planning. In this paper, Schippl and Fleischer demonstrate that a broad range of tools

A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS for transport planning Jens Schippl and Torsten Fleischer Abstract Purpose As in other socio-technical fields, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA METHODS are used in transport planning

It juxtaposes a problem typology and a typology of methods Keywords FTA METHODS, Transport planning, Risks, Uncertainties, Unintended effects, Uncertainty management,

Strategic planning Paper type Conceptual paper 1. Introduction Transport is highly crucial to economic wealth and quality of life.

So, a broad range of rather different FTA METHODS is used in transport planning to improve the quality, robustness and legitimacy of decisions.

The results of a planning process are shaped by the specific combination of the different approaches. The huge variety in tools and methods,

and easily communicable categorisation of methods is able to support both a more appropriate usage of methods in planning and decision-making processes,

risks and uncertainties Uncertainty and risk are only in very rare cases a consideration in transportation planning and transportation policy decision making.

On the contrary, typical, widely used transportation planning tools more often than not provide the impression that the consequences of policy interventions like new infrastructure projects,

VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 283 Risk, uncertainties and unintended effects are obviously a problem for transport planning.

The overall intention of CBA is the assessment of projects, planning or programmes. There is a need to understand relevant causal relations to apply the method properly.

and structurally closed methods is to support an appropriate usage of the FTA TOOLS in transport planning.

which goes through the history of transport planning, is the case that quantitative modelling is used

The‘‘predict and provide''approach was established the planning paradigm. For example Banister (2002,31; based on Evans and Mackinder, 1980) illustrates that many of these forecasts turned out to be wrong in the UK.

which are creating the basis for transport planning models (TPMS), might be subject to a high degree in uncertainty.

the planning of an underground railway station for the City of Stuttgart, abbreviated as S21 (Stuttgart 21),

It is not possible to illustrate the long and complex discussion process which accompanied the planning.

According to proponents of the planning the results proved that the station would have sufficient capacities.

In contrast, the opponents of the planning considered the results as invalid, since the modelling had been based on VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 289 assumptions

According to the original planning, more than 50 kilometres of tunnel need to be built. It was known that the complex geological structure might well lead to‘‘surprises'',in form of difficult geological structures

which might make the planning more expensive. An effect would be that the cost-benefit ratio

Also in this case, more open methods would have been needed to raise awareness for the uncertainties in the planning.

References Banister, D. 2002), Transport Planning, 2nd ed.,Routledge, London. Cagnin, C. and Keenan, M. 2008),‘Positioning future-oriented technology analysis'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analyses.

''Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 72, pp. 1064-9. Grunwald, A. 2007),‘Working towards sustainable development in the face of uncertainty and incomplete knowledge'',Journal of Environmental policy and Planning, Vol. 9

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