Planning

Adaptive planning (26)
Conventional planning (4)
Long-term planning (11)
Planning (288)
Planning process (13)
Regional planning (10)
Strategic planning (103)

Synopsis: Planning: Planning:

the purpose of the analysis (awareness raising, envisioning, consensus building, corporate technology planning, etc; the reliability of source information;

say, investment planning for fire-fighting. 469 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 information on any particular fire and consequently it will have to build on more generic knowledge on different sorts of fires, their probabilities and the like.

In a sequential planning exercise the typical approach is to try to construct a first-period structure that is 11 Sometimes an adaptive option can be inherent in an operational asset. 470 E. A. Eriksson,

Change 14 (2005) 1 13.16 R. Phaal, C. J. P. Farrukh, D. R. Probert, Technology roadmapping A planning framework for evolution and revolution, Technol.

Change 71 (2004) 141 159.26 F. Lizaso, G. Reger, Linking roadmapping and scenarios as an approach for strategic technology planning

Improving Distributed intelligence in Complex Innovation systems, Final Report of the Advanced Science and Technology policy Planning Network (ASTPP.

Lessons from Regional infrastructure foresight, deals with a foresight exercise in connection with strategic infrastructure planning. They argue that foresight allows addressing trade-offs related to context uncertainties,

Regional foresight Strategic planning Participation Infrastructure 1. Infrastructure planning and foresight In OECD countries, most infrastructure sectors such as electricity supply, water supply and sanitation were constructed over the 20th century by implementing a narrow

these approaches are often deficient with regard to addressing the broad range of uncertainties associated with the long planning horizon (more extensively treated in 5). Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Corresponding

a more elaborate and open approach to strategic planning seems very timely. 2. 2. Foresight supporting infrastructure planning Foresight methods have been developed over the past decades to explicitly address substantial uncertainties in technology development.

In land-use planning, Xiang and Clarke 29 speak of learning scenarios as vehicles for better specifying preferences for specific ends.

but do embed not explicitly the planning in political decision making processes and are not explicit with regard to different stakeholder preferences 38,42, 44 51.

Framing a strong exploratory approach to strategic planning Based on these experiences, we may now frame the problem of informing strategic infrastructure planning by foresight as follows:

and tested a specific method for strategic infrastructure planning, the Regional infrastructure foresight method (RIF. RIF aims at providing an explorative perspective on strategic decision making

of alternative solutions and of fundamental trade-offs that should be addressed for long term infrastructures planning.

and applied an explorative oriented approach to strategic decision making in infrastructure planning. We argued that due to the long life times of key technical components of these sectors

a more discursive and open consideration of uncertainties in context conditions, values and options is needed compared to the established planning practice.

References 1 I. Dyner, E. R. Larsen, From planning to strategy in the electricity industry, Energy Policy 29 (13)( 2001) 1145 1154.2 D. Dominguez

Telecom, Land Transport, Water and Electricity, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2006.4 B. Flyvbjerg, Policy and planning for large-infrastructure projects:

knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight, Futures 38 (8)( 2006) 942 955.29 W. Xiang, K c. Clarke, The use of scenarios in land-use planning, Environ.

Pract. 2 (3)( 1989) 307 331.36 S. S. Gezelius, K. Refsgaard, Barriers to rational decision-making in environmental planning, Land use Policy 24 (2

promise and reality, Transportation 34 (2007) 397 412.38 C. Zegras, J. Sussman, C. Conklin, Scenario planning for strategic regional transportation planning, J. Urban Plann.

Environ. 8 (5)( 2003) 323 342.40 K. Chatterjee, A. Gordon, Planning for an unpredictable future:

(c) Ways to account for uncertainty in decision making,(d) Strategies for planning and management of nonlinear systems operating in the chaotic regime,

A lot of work is needed here. 5. Planning in nonlinear, chaotic systems While most physical and social systems are nonlinear,

The central premise of planning is that forecasting is possible. The policy sciences teach us to identify optimum policies by testing a set of prospective policies on models that simulate the real world

but a whole new set of approaches to planning and systems management need to be invented.

The problem of planning and management of systems operating in the chaotic regime is a frontier of great importance to our field.

Foresight and roadmma exercises are aimed at supporting planning and priority-setting of R&d and have become indispensable elements of policy-making.

Improving distributed intelligence in complex innovation systems, Final Report of the Advanced Science & Technology policy Planning Network (ASTPP), Karlsruhe, 1999.

Moreover, scenario planning can offer a policy risk-free space to visualize, rehearse and test the acceptability of different strategies without being implicated by the actual constraints of day-to-day policy-making.

There are also data available on the types of businesses that use scenarios most often large firms in capital-intensive industries with long (greater than 10 years) planning horizons.

where scenario planning has been part of developing Scotland's 2nd National Planning Framework (NPF), setting out the range of strategic alternatives that were considered as part of the early development of the NPF,

and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures 37 (8)( 2005) 795 812.10 R. J. Lempert, S w. Popper, S. C

Change 17 (2007) 73 85.40 J. A. Dewar, Assumption-based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge, 2002,

Integrating the Environment for Sustainability, Edgar Elgar Publishing, London, 2008, pp. 114 133.42 Scottish government, National Planning Framework 2 SEA Annex to the Environmental Report:

of problem-solving systems, Management Science 23 (10)( 1977) 1099 1108.18 W. Ulrich, 1983 Critical Heuristics of Social Planning:

. Dempster, A self-organizing perspective on planning for sustainability, Thesis for Master of Environmental Studies in Planning, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 1998.21 W. Ulrich, Critical systems heuristics, in:

and the analysis portrayed in this paper is instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.

The core group for the strategy development processes, apart from the programme-management staff in the Energy Authority, consisted of representatives from the planning and development departments of the two electricity grid operators.

4) Planning for specific actions and follow-up activities (roadmaps, etc..Steps 1 3 were carried out in 2003 and the first half of 2004,

Long Range Planning 27, no. 3: 12 21. Mintzberg, H. 1994c. Rethinking strategic planning. Part II:

Long Range Planning 27, no. 3: 22 30. Mintzberg, H.,B. Ahlstrand, and J. Lampel. 1998.

This‘negotiation'around the remit of the exercise had some immediate effects on both its planning and execution.

However, such deliberative forums require careful planning and must be scheduled appropriately. While this was understood by the FNR Secretariat

municipal planning; stakeholder participation Introduction Foresight is among the most widespread and accepted forms of organised future-oriented activities today. 1 As a widely applied method for dialogical future thinking,

In the literature on municipal planning, visioning is regarded as a separate method, as a more direct process of establishing a desired vision of a communal future not necessarily based on different future scenarios. 5 This latter approach is politically crucial for public organisations trying to develop policy and long-term thinking.

'and how the resulting visions should be used in the planning context. As pointed out by Shipley et al.

2004,195) there was virtually no mentioning of visioning as a collective activity within the planning profession before 1990.

as well as interviews with schoolteachers, politicians, municipal employees in the planning and social development department, visioning workshop participants and foresight practitioners.

and limits of inclusive foresight in municipal planning processes and expounds the challenges of our contemporary understanding of communicative planning tools as power instruments (Pløger 2002).

At the same time, the municipal project leadership clarified early on how their contributions would be handled in the context of municipal planning.

During several presentations of the project, the project leaders showed an illustration figuring predators fighting over the right to decide area planning in Germany's capital Berlin (Figure 2).‘Why the young people?'

and scholars have discussed the value of a futures approach in the field of community planning as not necessarily‘in discovering new factual knowledge about sustainable urban developmment

longteer planning and decision-making. 19 If the young were authentic stakeholders, what perspectives and insights were they to contribute to the project?

Norwegian scholars of planning theory have argued that there is little use in trying to separate communication and power in planning processes:‘

21 They argue that one of the problems municipal planning is confronted with is assumed the frequently existence of universal values

which everybody can agree upon. 22 These universal values are being included in laws and regulations on planning procedures with no further reflections upon

and whether planning should be an activity at the service of‘good'(Hagen and Asmervik 2003,5).

) 5. On visioning in municipal planning, see Shipley and Newkirk (1999), Shipley (2002), Shipley et al.

The notions of active citizenship and community involvement have become increasingly promineen in political discussions and policy practices within planning and future oriented governance (Stukas and Dunlap 2002;

when discussing the relationship of planning, power and values:‘‘when we do good we use power.

If planning is everything maybe it's everything? New possibilities and roles in municiple and local planning.

Paper presented at Nordic conference, 14 16 august 2003, Lillehammer. http://www. ks. no/upload/4342/p-hagen asmervik. doc (accessed September 2009).

Futures the journal of policy, planning and futures studies. Johnston, R. 2001. Foresight refining the process.

Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 28, no. 2: 219 41. Pløger, J. 2002.

Communicative planning and democracy new perspectives in planning research. NIBR Report no. 17. Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional research. http://www. nibr. no/publikasjoner/rapporter/172/(accessed September 2009.

Rappert, B. 1999. Rationalising the future? Foresight in science and technology policy co-ordination. Futures 31, no. 6: 527 45.

Visioning in planning: is the practice based on sound theory. Environment and Planning A 34, no. 1: 7 22.

Shipley, R.,B. Hall, R. Feick, and R. Earley. 2004. Evaluating municipal visioning. Planning Practice & Research 19, no. 2: 195 209.

Environment and Planning B, Planning and Design 26, no. 4: 573 91. Slaughter, R. A. 2004.

Values and planning. Aldershot: Ashgate. Thygesen, H. 2009. Technology and good dementia care: a study of technology and ethics in everyday care practice.

in the belief that our analysis may be instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.

or informational (e g. awareness-raising) has implications for planning decisiion that include, among others, choices about how many stakeholder groups will be consulted;

and examine Finnsight in view of axes of balance that are arguably helpful in the planning of foresight exercises The methodological novelties of Finnsight are highlighted,

with responsibility for the planning and methodological support of the exercise. It was assisted by the guidance that the Steering Group provided through its discussions

review of a decade's futures work, Futures 21 (1989) 447 465.4 H. A. Linstone, Corporate planning, forecasting,

Science & Technology policy Planning Network (ASTPP), Frauenhofer Institute, Systems and Innovation research, Karlsruhe, 1999.7 L. Mermet, T. Fuller, R. van der Helm, Reexamining

and to use the results in planning and decision making. Although the Scan process serves most effectively as an early warning-system system,

10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.003 the planning and emergence of knowledge-based clusters is informed often by a vision;

In the planning for the first UK Technology foresight Programme this system was articulated further to introduce the dimensions of cost and timescale 13.

since 1970.6 FTA projects in China in broad sense can be traced to‘‘The 12 Years Science Development Planning''made in 1956,

while many instruments of normative forecasting and planning (e g. relevance trees) are also part of the toolkit.

The design and planning of the FTA can be interpreted as the preliminary‘‘S''phase of the knowledge cycle.

opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues

and fundamentally alters the previous pathways or expected direction of policies, events and planning regimes.

preparing for wild cards in the civil aircraft and asset-management industries, Long Range Planning 42 (1)( 2009) 23 41.

A first example looks at the application of fta methods to transport planning. In this paper, Schippl and Fleischer demonstrate that a broad range of tools

A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS for transport planning Jens Schippl and Torsten Fleischer Abstract Purpose As in other socio-technical fields, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA METHODS are used in transport planning

It juxtaposes a problem typology and a typology of methods Keywords FTA METHODS, Transport planning, Risks, Uncertainties, Unintended effects, Uncertainty management,

So, a broad range of rather different FTA METHODS is used in transport planning to improve the quality, robustness and legitimacy of decisions.

and easily communicable categorisation of methods is able to support both a more appropriate usage of methods in planning and decision-making processes,

risks and uncertainties Uncertainty and risk are only in very rare cases a consideration in transportation planning and transportation policy decision making.

On the contrary, typical, widely used transportation planning tools more often than not provide the impression that the consequences of policy interventions like new infrastructure projects,

VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 283 Risk, uncertainties and unintended effects are obviously a problem for transport planning.

The overall intention of CBA is the assessment of projects, planning or programmes. There is a need to understand relevant causal relations to apply the method properly.

and structurally closed methods is to support an appropriate usage of the FTA TOOLS in transport planning.

which goes through the history of transport planning, is the case that quantitative modelling is used

The‘‘predict and provide''approach was established the planning paradigm. For example Banister (2002,31; based on Evans and Mackinder, 1980) illustrates that many of these forecasts turned out to be wrong in the UK.

which are creating the basis for transport planning models (TPMS), might be subject to a high degree in uncertainty.

the planning of an underground railway station for the City of Stuttgart, abbreviated as S21 (Stuttgart 21),

It is not possible to illustrate the long and complex discussion process which accompanied the planning.

According to proponents of the planning the results proved that the station would have sufficient capacities.

In contrast, the opponents of the planning considered the results as invalid, since the modelling had been based on VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 289 assumptions

According to the original planning, more than 50 kilometres of tunnel need to be built. It was known that the complex geological structure might well lead to‘‘surprises'',in form of difficult geological structures

which might make the planning more expensive. An effect would be that the cost-benefit ratio

Also in this case, more open methods would have been needed to raise awareness for the uncertainties in the planning.

References Banister, D. 2002), Transport Planning, 2nd ed.,Routledge, London. Cagnin, C. and Keenan, M. 2008),‘Positioning future-oriented technology analysis'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analyses.

''Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 72, pp. 1064-9. Grunwald, A. 2007),‘Working towards sustainable development in the face of uncertainty and incomplete knowledge'',Journal of Environmental policy and Planning, Vol. 9

B Embrace emergence rather than planning and forecasting. B Focus on interactions rather than constituent parts.

rely on external planning and forecasting. They should enable visioning of phase change situations (with no early warning signals) and the resulting changed world.

Rami'rez, R. and Van der Heijden, K. Eds)( 2008), Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New methods for Applying Scenarios, Earthscan, London.

These experiences should be of interest to those involved in long-range strategy planning. Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report

Infrastructure planning and ecological wood building booming areas. Domestic demand for mass-consumption goods has fallen,

A year after that, the government commissioned an evaluation on the effectiveness of the preparation process that would comment on the general progress of the process as well as the usability of this kind of foresight work in policy planning.

Nowadays, citizen participation and collaboration amongst public and private stakeholders have become milestones in the planning realm.

which displays in a sequential and hierarchical way how urban development proceeds from territorial planning to urban planning,

The second set is composed of horizontal elements that provide integral support for all the operational procedures of the planning value chain.

and are becoming a decisive element in many planning exercises. As a matter of fact, in the last few years territorial foresight has gathered increasing attention from various European public bodies.

) The European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007) has published also the findings of its project‘‘Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe'',in

In this context, the planning value chain is integrated partially by the need to incorporate environmental planning into every step of the development process.

Other key elements are territorial planning and building rehabilitation. Real estate demand is very heterogeneous and segmented into multiple small groups

In this context, the planning value chain is fragmented very much and sectorialised because stakeholders'interests prevail over the basic sustainability criteria.

frequent disputes between political, social and economic stakeholders hinder consensus. Horizontal elements such as legislation, technology and management are weak in the first stages of the planning stages,

the planning value chain is integrated highly, linking the different lines of sectoral planning under a comprehensive approach.

Environmental, transport and land-use planning are intertwined thus tightly and guided by a common long-range strategy.

Each of the following spatial scenarios represents a planning concept taken to an extreme. The final shape adopted by the localities will be a meld of several issues

undertaking territorial planning or improving energy efficiency. Nevertheless, prospering in Scenario A will mean a major transformation in the Spanish society,

Nearly 20 personal interviews were made with planning practitioners and public officials in Spain. Interviewees were questioned systematically about their attitude toward future studies

A dynamic and sometimes turbulent environment puts enormous pressure on rational planning systems, which in many cases have been designed to simulate highly stable and predictable functional systems.

bringing futures into planning'',American Planning Association Journal, Vol. 67 No. 4, pp. 372-83. de Tera'n, F. 1996),‘Evolucio'n del planeamiento urbani

European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007), Scenarios on the Territorial Future of Europe, ESPON, Belgium.

an essay on the role of the future in planning practice and education'',Town planning Review, Vol. 56 No. 4, pp. 483-91.

a new window on the future'',American Planning Association Journal, Vol. 67 No. 4, pp. 367-72.

limited to a short time span and resistant to prospective thinking and alternative planning. Despite the fact that scenarios have already been used in legal-oriented studies,

Their planning, as mentioned above, derived from the initial Delphi phase in which legal experts were consulted for their visions of the future of Law in their respective areas.

complementing the scenarios with a system of monitoring mechanisms, legal contingency planning, and preparatory measures.

and planning in organisations that depend on and participate in the development of science and/or technology. 4. 2. Roadmapping as a precursor of a TA process for specific nanotechnology applications The situation described above rather broad and largely unstructured field of investigation, mostly enabling technologies at early stages of development,

others think that the application of planning tools to topics of basic research might confine creativity

Suppose again that an FTA had been requested during the planning of the Fukushima power station where would the expertise have come from to conduct the study?

practices and techniques The challenge of coping with increasing uncertainty encouraged new analytical approaches to decision-making and long-range planning:

Second, we provide empirical evidence on the ways major companies designed their strategic foresight approaches to handling uncertainty and supporting long-range planning (Cassingena Harper et al. 2008;

and scope Planning Planning Planning D Run the business Inventory analysis Implementation and operation Accounting Delivery C Monitor the business Impact evaluation Verification and corrective action Auditing

focus on processes and activities planning-Change factors as processes and activities interdependence-Decision based on risk/reward-Integration starts;

alignment definition and review Design the business Defining and reviewing the strategy to implement the vision of sustainability Strategy Strategic and tactical planning definition and review Partnerships Partnerships selection;

A self-organizing systems perspective on planning for sustainability. B. Sc. Thesis, University of British columbia, Vancouver, Canada.

Long Range Planning 26, no. 2: 59 68. Perlman, D, . and G. J. Takacs. 1990.

Design the business P It is the process of planning how the business must be shaped in roder to achieve the vision of sustainability via the definition of a strategy

which would transparently integrate planning, logistics, and information about the location of the machinery. In order to achieve these aims,

The fundamentals and competencies need to be positioned in the context of‘mobile strategies'that enable the continuous elaboration of targets and the planning of actions.

Long Range Planning 28, no. 2: 21 8. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,

Linking technology resources into business planning. International Journal of Technology management 26, no. 1: 12 9. Geels, F. W. 2004.

Long Range Planning 41, no. 3: 309 25. Kostoff, R. N.,R. Boylan, and G r. Simons. 2004.

Technology roadmapping a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological forecasting & Social Change 71:5 26.

Long Range Planning 41, no. 3: 241 47. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014

Keywords Foresight, Combination, Delphi method, Scenario, Innovation, Sustainable development, Forward planning Paper type Case study 1. Introduction The situation surrounding science and technology has undergone a radical change in recent years.

integration of technology roadmapping and the Delphi method'',International Journal of Technology intelligence and Planning, Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 184-200.

Mietzner, D. and Reger, G. 2005),‘Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight'',International Journal of Technology intelligence and Planning, Vol. 1 No. 2, pp. 220-39.

Keywords Foresight Grand challenges, Research and innovation policy, Research prioritization, Forward planning, Innovation, Ireland Paper type Case study 1. Introduction Foresight methods have been used widely around the world to enable the research

Keywords Priority-setting, Russia, Natural resources, Long term planning, Foresight project planning, Innovation, Technology led strategy, Sciences Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction In recent years

Keywords Strategic technology foresight, Competitive technology intelligence, Delphi topic analysis, International patent classification system, Sustainable energy, Innovation, Forward planning Paper type Research paper 1

and understand S&t-related shifts or trends in the competitive environment as a preparation for organizational planning and strategic development.

of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP) Foresight and Strategy Planning Team, Korean Institute of S&t Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP), The Science

Hence, devising an FTA project requires careful planning, and well-reasoned decisions on its main features/elements:

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 are by nature complex and largely impervious to top-down rational planning approaches.

and governance network-building coupled with avoiding centralised S&t planning. In Germany, FTA is used mainly for addressing the future of existing areas of strength

8 H. Ritteland, M. Weber, Dilemmas in a general theory of planning, Policy Sci. 4 (1973) 155 169.9 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M

, product planning and technology development for product life cycle, CIRP Ann. Manuf. Technol. 43 (1)( 2008) 157 162.4 J. P. Martino, Technological forecasting for Decision making, 3rd Edition Mcgraw-hill, New york, NY, 1993.5 A t. Roper, S w

This is called contingency planning, and is implemented in Step IV. Signposts specify information that should be tracked

and expected values are used in planning decisions. Also, since the installation of new capacity mostly happens in large chunks,

0000 MW for different technologies Planning and construction periods Average period for planning and constructing new capacity for a technology Parametric Varying between 1 and 5 years for different technologies Progress ratios Ratio for determining cost reduction due to learning curve Parametric Varying

and a short planning and construction time for Technology 1 also hinder the transition toward sustainability,

and longer planning and construction period for Technology 2, lead to low fractions of sustainable technologies.

Preference against unknown Average planning and construction period Tech. 1 Lifetime of Technology 1 Lifetime of Technology 3 CO2 avoidance performance of Technology 2 Expected

Using FTA for planning for action is one area where the handling of uncertainty is crucial.

Acknowledgments This study is part of the project Dealing with Uncertainties in Infrastructure Planning and Design:

Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008, pp. 1 13.20 L. Albrechts, Strategic (spatial) planning reexamined,

His research focused on the treatment of uncertainty in long-term airport planning. He currently works as a postdoc on the treatment of uncertainties in model-based decision support for fresh water supply in The netherlands at Delft University of Technology.

In making policy or planning decisions about complex and uncertain problems, EMA can provide new knowledge,

E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 that policy or planning debates can often be served even by the discovery of thresholds, boundaries,

or planning even when prediction and optimization are not possible by using the available partial information in a systematic and transparent way.

2. Uncertainties A wide variety of uncertainties are important in long-term airport planning. Table 4 gives an overview of the major uncertainties that are explored in this case.

slope change fraction Yearly fractional change in the slope of the load duration curve-0. 01 0. 01 Planning horizon of the generation companies Upper bound for the planning horizon of the generation companies.

Thesis, 2004.50 S. J. Heblij, R. A a. Wijnen, Development of a runway allocation optimisation model for airport strategic planning, Transportation Planning and Technology 31 (2

He has worked on cases in various domains including air transport, port planning, fresh water supply in The netherlands, world water scarcity issues,

< Back - Next >

Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011