adaptive planning

Adaptive planning

Adaptive planning (26)
Conventional planning (4)
Long-term planning (11)
Planning (288)
Planning process (13)
Regional planning (10)
Strategic planning (103)

Synopsis: Planning: Adaptive planning:

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The adaptive planning paradigm provides a natural guide for navigation of this complex landscape: one should consider

Adaptive planning; Real options; Scenario planning; Neo-Schumpeterian economics; Evolutionary economics; Social studies of technology; Policy strategy Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 Corresponding author.

Under the headline of Adaptive foresight (AF) it combines elements from the foresight and adaptive planning traditions.

Adaptive planning is given a relatively elaborate treatment. In the case of foresight, we primarily discuss the shortcomings of current practices that motivate AF.

as is adaptive planning although that term is much less well established and therefore will be given more elaboration in

We, therefore, see adaptive planning as a way to overcome this lack of realism in much foresight work

But this of course within the confines of linear innovation processes. 2. 2. Adaptive planning The type of (self-criticism levelled in the closing part of the previous section is in no way new to the foresight community,

it is our contention that in all three respects it is particularly useful to draw on insights from adaptive planning (AP). This approach,

adaptive planning suggests postponing decisions until we know more about the usefulness of different options that are kept open in the meantime.

adaptive planning provides a framework for developing forward-looking strategies and options for individual actors. Thirdly, adaptive planning takes into account the accumulation of knowledge

and thus at least over time should be able to overcome the impressionism of conventional foresight, while on the other hand not capitulating to the conventional wisdom as might be the case

adaptive planning thus recommends only guarded action, but by being sensitive to the degree of maturity of knowledge,

Adaptive planning (AP) as one of the constituents of Adaptive foresight belongs to a strand of strategic planning that stresses the limitations to both foreseeing and controlling future developments.

A key dichotomy to adaptive planning is the one between one-stage vs. sequential decision-making. The decision-making we have in mind here is of strategic character,

or with greater probability of success than otherwise. 11 Adaptive planning then is strategic planning that handles uncertainty by considering robustness,

Adaptive planning does not mean to keep all options open as long as possible. Rather it is to carefully strike a balance between strategic commitment and strategic opportunism, e g. in view of the above bullet 19.

and adaptive planning The preceding section outlined the conceptual foundations of Adaptive foresight. The term Adaptive foresight"itself was introduced only recently 28,29

This is a key tenet of adaptive planning. Conventional foresight approaches have tended to stress the ability to shape the future by initiating participatory processes involving key actors,

Also this is an immediate consequence of and an input into adaptive planning. Adaptive with respect to the balance between participatory elements and closed internal processes.

see footnotes 14 21.478 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 years of experience with foresight, adaptive planning

More specifically, we believe that it is powerful in overcoming some of the shortcomings of conventional foresight by adopting notions of adaptive planning:

and navigating the complex information bases that adaptive planning necessitates should be a priority. Another issue is bringing the real options approach to bear at more than just the conceptual level.

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Konrad and Voß 2006) in designing foresight processes and adaptive planning (Grin, Felix, and Bos 2004; Weber 2006) and as a critical tool in qualitative research (Lynch 2000;

Foresight and adaptive planning as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making: a conceptuua and methodological approach. In Reflexive governance for sustainable development, ed. J-P. Voß, D. Bauknecht,

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or prevent certain undesirable dynamics. 3. 2. Adaptive planning for airport development The air transport industry operates in a rapidly changing context.

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glocalization/grobalization and something/nothing, Sociological Theory 21 (3)( 2003) 193 209.22 M. Weber, Foresight and adaptive planning as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making:

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