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To some extent convergence of opinion and broad measures of agreement were voiced that integrating FTA METHODS with established processes of strategic planning is difficult
accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Adaptive foresight has been developed at the crossroads of foresight and adaptive strategic planning. Innovation is seen as increasingly complex, interdependent and uncertain and therefore in need of broad and multidiscipplinar exploration and participation.
Adaptive planning (AP) as one of the constituents of Adaptive foresight belongs to a strand of strategic planning that stresses the limitations to both foreseeing and controlling future developments.
or with greater probability of success than otherwise. 11 Adaptive planning then is strategic planning that handles uncertainty by considering robustness,
Early frameworks for strategic planning build on a structural approach: Typically a handful of alternative structures a type of visionary scenarios are constructed
Such applications are well in line with early ideas on using real options for bridging the gap between strategic planning and investment 51.
Many networks and platforms have dedicated working groups or programmes on foresight, strategic planning and anticipation of societal and ethical hurdles to innovation based on emerging technologies.
At the level of Frontiers the tool has been taken up in official documents as MPM-1 was included in the first round strategic planning document known as the Frontiers Roadmap for 2006/2007.
for strategic planning (again, at different levels. The type of intended outcomes always depends on the design (objectives) of a foresight programme,
however, does not imply that national (regional) factors can be neglected in actual prospective analyses (e g. strategic planning or foresight programmes).
The Exploratory Analysis of Trade-Offs in Strategic planning: Lessons from Regional infrastructure foresight, deals with a foresight exercise in connection with strategic infrastructure planning.
The exploratory analysis of trade-offs in strategic planning: Lessons from Regional infrastructure foresight E. Störmer A b. Truffer A d. Dominguez b, W. Gujer b c, A. Herlyn b, H. Hiessl d, H. Kastenholz e
The present paper argues that foresight informed strategic planning, allows addressing trade-offs related to context uncertainties,
Regional foresight Strategic planning Participation Infrastructure 1. Infrastructure planning and foresight In OECD countries, most infrastructure sectors such as electricity supply, water supply and sanitation were constructed over the 20th century by implementing a narrow
Over the past decades, strategic planning in these sectors was focused mostly on narrowing down context uncertainties, value considerations and system configurations to reduce complexity and ease implementation 1, 4. Given the increased range of uncertainties,
however much less well developed in strategic planning contexts as it often misses the link between analyzing uncertainties to assessing options
and strategic planning is carried mostly out in a very narrow perspective: tending to blind out alternative solutions, context uncertainties and broad goals.
We therefore consider strategic planning in sanitation as an appropriate test domain for the methodology. A similar approach has been presented by Dominguez et al. 2. They utilize infrastructure foresight to identify technological and organizational capability deficits.
In the next section, we lay the ground for combining strategic planning in infrastructures with foresight methodologies. Section 3 presents the procedural outlay of the Regional Infrastructure method and introduces concepts for addressing the trade-offs relative to context uncertainties, conflicts and sustainability deficits.
and strategic planning in infrastructure sectors. 2. Breaking up path dependencies in strategic infrastructure planning 2. 1. Characteristics of infrastructure sectors Infrastructures represent a specific challenge to strategic planning methods.
Particularly in public organizations there is often a wide lack of capabilities for running strategic planning processes 2. Additionally,
Strategic planning processes are a key for determining the appropriateness, performance and sustainability impacts of infrastructures over their long life time.
a more elaborate and open approach to strategic planning seems very timely. 2. 2. Foresight supporting infrastructure planning Foresight methods have been developed over the past decades to explicitly address substantial uncertainties in technology development.
Therefore, we may assume that strategic planning in infrastructure sectors could substantially profit from insights gathered in this tradition.
Framing a strong exploratory approach to strategic planning Based on these experiences, we may now frame the problem of informing strategic infrastructure planning by foresight as follows:
we propose to apply a strong exploratory perspective to these core elements of the strategic planning process.
but is rather an important first step in an overall strategic planning process (Coates 1985 cited in 25).
We take this proposition as a strong invitation to explicitly specify the organizational and procedural interfaces between the exploratory phase in a strategic planning process
and core team sessions are synthesized finally by the core team into a recommendation for strategic planning.
we want to illustrate the individual steps of the procedure by presenting experiences gained in a specific pilot case in The swiss sanitation sector. 4. 1. Strategic planning in The swiss sanitation sector The swiss sanitation sector can be considered a success
Commissioners of strategic planning processes are interested mostly in low investment costs or low overall costs, while the regulatory agency is concerned with water quality.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Based on a national analysis of The swiss sanitation system 69 and a call for participation in innovative strategic planning processes,
We developed a specific methodological layout of a strategic planning process the Regional infrastructure foresight method that builds on a combination of foresight approaches that focus on exploratory context scenarios, option assessment and multiple perspectives.
By carefully defining the interface between the foresight process and the formal strategic planning process we could considerably improve the range of critical context conditions 7. As experienced in our empirical application case,
strategic planning for the infrastructure sector, Calif. Manage. Rev. 51 (2)( 2009) 30 50.3 OECD, Infrastructure to 2030:
B 34 (2007) 578 597.5 D. Dominguez, B. Truffer, W. Gujer, Tackling uncertainty in infrastructure sectors through strategic planning.
, J. Hertin, Foresight futures scenarios, Developing and Applying a Participative Strategic planning Tool, Greener Management International (37 Special issue on Foresighting for Development), 2002, pp. 37 52.27 G
Damian Dominguez did his Ph d. thesis on strategic planning in the wastewater sector at Eawag and ETH Zurich.
While numerous alternative methodologies exist for future strategic planning, we limited ourselves mainly to literature on scenario planning,
With its long-term perspective and its emphasis on connecting perspectives of different knowledge areas and different actors and stakeholders, foresight differs from corporate strategic planning,
strategic planning or strategic management is established a well academic discipline that is taught at most business schools and mostly directed towards corporate strategy.
Some authors have suggested that foresight has emerged from the convergence of the three disciplines and practices of policy development, strategic planning and futures studies (Gavigan et al. 2001),
In the 1990s Henry Mintzberg, in a book and two papers (Mintzberg 1994a c), argued that strategic planning focuses too much on analyses
The rise and fall of strategic planning. Newyork: Free Press. Mintzberg, H. 1994b. Rethinking strategic planning. Part I:
Pitfalls and fallacies. Long Range Planning 27, no. 3: 12 21. Mintzberg, H. 1994c. Rethinking strategic planning.
Part II: New roles for planners. Long Range Planning 27, no. 3: 22 30. Mintzberg, H.,B. Ahlstrand,
Taking into account insights from strategic planning and complle social systems thinking, policy studies are stressing the growing importance of interactions,
developing and applying a participative strategic planning tool. Greener Management International 37:37 52. Böhle, K. 2003.
respectively) took the initiative to launch a joint foresight exercise thatwould provide informational inputs to the shaping of the national strategy and also other strategic planning processes.
Building and Sustaining the Sources of Innovation, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1995, p. 135.6 Eric D. Beinhocker, Sarah Kaplan, Tired of strategic planning?
Strategic planning Paper type Conceptual paper 1. Introduction Transport is highly crucial to economic wealth and quality of life.
Keywords Complexity, Disruptive events, Emergence, Reframing, Variation, Policy making, Complexity theory, Uncertainty management, Strategic planning Paper type Conceptual paper 1. Foresight techniques To date,
Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report
Keywords Territorial foresight, Scenario design, Urban planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Research paper 1. The oblivion of future studies in urban planning Since its origins in the nineteenth
Third, there is a tight relationship between futures studies and strategic planning (Ferna'ndez Gu ell, 2011. The need to think about the future
and formulate long-term development visions makes strategic planning a perfect client for futures studies. Since there are solid arguments for raising futures studies to a relevant position within the urban planning process,
His professional and academic interests are focussed on strategic planning, territorial foresight and governance studies. He is the author of several articles and books related to strategic planning and foresight tools.
Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell is the corresponding author and can be contacted at: josemiguel. fernandez@upm. es Leticia Redondo is an Architect and Urban Planner at the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid.
Keywords Law, Future-oriented analysis, Foresight, Scenario planning, Modelling, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction Future and Law 1 are two words that are rarely found in the same phrase.
while emphasizing the role of analysis in tactical and strategic planning (Beck, 2009). Based on comprehensive computer statistics, technology has allowed the law enforcement community to rapidly identify
Strategic planning in a turbulent environment: Evidence from the oil majors. Strategic management Journal 24, no. 6: 491 517.
The concept of a value chain became fundamental to strategic planning once Porter described how a firm can use it to identify sources of differentiation
and market drivers Strategy Strategic and holistic view of the research objects Strategic capacity of the organisation and/or entity Holistic roadmaps to be used in long-term strategic planning Technology space
Integrating technology monitoring, forecasting & assessment with strategic planning. SRA Journal (Society of Research Administrators) 26, no. 2: 21 31.
Research policy makers need specific information and insight on how the structured view of the future provided by foresight affects their strategic planning.
Keywords Foresight, Strategic dialogue, Research policy, Stakeholder alignment, Scenario planning, Germany, Innovation, Strategic planning, Governance, Management Paper type Case study 1. The challenge of transferring foresight results Through research policy,
but also specific information on how this view affects their strategic planning. The key challenge is that research policy makers are not a homogeneous group, even within a single institution,
In this paper we demonstrate how existing approaches for transferring foresight results into strategic planning can be applied to research policy making.
and similar strategy processes into research policy making and research infrastructure creation. 2. Lessons from earlier work The challenge of transferring foresight results into strategic planning is well known in a business context.
and B compatibility with existing strategic planning activities in individual units within the BMBF. 6. Conclusions Strategic dialogues have proved to be an effective and efficient instrument for achieving the transfer of results from strategic processes such as Foresight into research policy making.
Also, the rule of foresight has changed from the previous explorative forecasting to more be come more oriented to strategic planning (Martin, 1995.
References 1 J. H. Kwakkel, W. E. Walker, V. A w. J. Marchau, Adaptive airport strategic planning, Eur.
Kastenholz, A. Klinke, J. Markard, M. Maurer, A. Ruef, The exploratory analysis of trade-offs in strategic planning:
Sci. 44 (1998) 820 830.15 J. H. Kwakkel, The Treatment of Uncertainty in Airport Strategic planning, Faculty of technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2010.16
analysis of trade-offs in strategic planning: lessons from regional infrastructure foresight, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 76 (2009) 1150 1162.17 J. Kooroshy, C. Meindersma, R. Podkolinski, M. Rademaker, T. Sweijs, A. Diederen, M. Beerthuizen, S. de
, Adaptive airport strategic planning, Eur. J. Transp. Infrastruct. Res. 10 (2010) 227 250.36 R. de Neufville, A. Odoni, Airport Systems:
Thesis, 2004.50 S. J. Heblij, R. A a. Wijnen, Development of a runway allocation optimisation model for airport strategic planning, Transportation Planning and Technology 31 (2
several scholars state that scenarios constitute a major tool for considering the future in strategic planning 18 23.
In addition, several scholars state that scenarios constitute a major tool for considering the future in strategic planning 18
Exploring the future, The role of interaction in foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 11. eforesee Malta L a. Pace,(in press) Strategic planning for the Future:
OECD (Ed.),Fostering Innovation to Address Social challenges, Workshop Proceedings, OECD, Paris, 2011, pp. 59 64.80 M. Godet, The art of scenarios and strategic planning:
the NNI uses advanced strategic planning methods and tools and acts as a kind of umbrella organization for pooling heterogeneous future-oriented activities.
+34 667448936 Riel Miller UNESCO, Bureau of Strategic planning, 7 Place Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07 SP, France E-mail address:
Conversely, strategic planning presupposes a distancing from the certainties (and known uncertainties) of the past and a significant amount of tolerance for new uncertainties.
Denmark has carried out foresight-like processes and strategic planning within individual sectors. For example various energy action plans have many similarities to foresight, both with regard to the processes and results.
Hofstede mentions that it has been shown that strategic planning is actually more popular in countries that display less uncertainty avoidance,
The reason for this is that strategic planning presumes a tolerance for uncertainty and for creating distance from the certainties of the past Daring new policies,
This concept was developed by using elements from adaptive strategic planning in order to address shortcomings of more Conventional foresight
this knowledge is crucial in view of strategic planning and decision making within innovation research. Therefore, lowering this uncertainty is an important challenge,
This intelligence can than serve as relevant input for decision making and strategic planning within the innovation trajectory.
41 (2000) 29 40.3 A. Raps, Implementing strategy, Strategic Finance June (2004) 49 54.4 H. Mintzberg, The fall and rise of strategic planning, Harvard Business Review
Within The netherlands the preliminary results of the horizon scan (COS) were used also as input for the strategic planning
mind-set transformation. 1. Introduction Exercises to explore the future are considered to be importaan for strategic planning, decision-making support and for public policy formulation,
Science and Technology research and Information Center (2005) Strategic planning on the development of Taiwan agricultural biotechnology industry'(.
The International council for science (ICSU) has been applying foresight as a central component of its strategic planning. This paper describes the most recent ICSU exercise
and fed into the new round of strategic planning. This timetaabl was compromised, however, by delays due to changes in key staff.
but could be introduced during future strategic planning processes, as is done often in business environments (Mendonc¸a et al. 2003).
(and others) to use in their own strategic planning or visioning processes (ICSU 2011b). Already, there is evidence that some member organisations have started to use the exploratory scenarios in this way
whereby the output of scanning can be incorporated effectively into vision building and strategic planning. The present paper draws on the experiences from the seventh European Framework programme horizon scanning project Scanning for Emerging science and Technology Issues (SESTI.
Fraunhofer complements these strategic planning activities with a process to identify and strategiicall develop research themes across its institutes.
The strategic planning activities are complemented by a process which aims to identify and strategically develop research themes across institutes (Fraunhofer Future topics).
FTA as part of the strategic planning of a distributed contract research organisation',paper presented at Third International Seville Conference on FTA, held Seville, Spain, 16 7 october 2008.
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