or scenario specialists 3. Developing and using scenarios can contribute at various levels of society by generating appropriate inputs for planning
Futures thinking Futures thinking is used for medium to long-term strategic analysis and planning. According to Jørgensen 41, citing Dreborg 42,
the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,
Scenario building and planning was developed further for management purposes, for example through the works of Pierre Wack
i e. window of opportunity, we looked at scenarios as a tool to support planning and decision-making.
Also for the third group of scenario practice, we suggest some areas of improvement with regard to legitimizing actions by adding a planning perspective via roadmaps or similar approaches.
R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, K. Van der Heijden, The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures
The Fast Start to Technology Roadmapping, Planning Your Route to Success, Centre for Technology management, Ifm University of Cambridge, 2001.56 T. J. Gordon, S&t roadmapping, in:
planning societal implications research for the National Nanotechnology Program, Technol. Soc. 27 (2005) 321 328.40 M d. Cobb, Framing effects on public opinion about nanotechnology, Sci.
In planning subsequent such FTA gatherings, it may be useful to look for signs of shared sense-making frameworks able to encompass, on the one hand, a tightly constrained roadmapping of a given technology within the assumptions of a specific scenario of national/European competitiveness,
and introduces a conceptual framework for analysing cultural differences in foresight and planning. Section 3 contains background information on the Danish economy and culture
(b) Danish traditions and styles for governmental long range planning and policy making, and (c) Danish experiences with technology foresight.
and planning was carried out by Dutch psychologist and anthropologist Geert Hofstede 19. In this study, we use Hofstede's definition of culture.
and he discusses the implication of each dimension for management and planning. As we will elaborate in the following,
the use of longer-term planning tools such as foresight in general, the selection of foresight methods, and the inclusion of experts and citizens.
The uncertainty avoidance dimension has several implications for national management and planning cultures. In particular, three of these implications relate to foresight:
types of planning, meaning of time, and tolerance for deviant ideas. The first implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to a society's view on planning in general.
Even among wealthy and highly developed democracies, it is possible to find differences in planning practices.
In countries with more uncertainty avoidance, such as France and Japan, short-and medium-term scheduling
and cultural context of governmental foresight and long range planning As history and cultural context are important,
this section contains background information for understanding the use of governmental foresight and long range planning.
First, during the 1970s, Denmark had some rather negative experiences with prospective planning. In two prospective plans (Perspektivplan I and II) from 1971 and 1974, the government analysed social trends and developments 15 and 20 years ahead for the public and private sectors, respectively.
The focus in Denmark seems to be set on‘‘We'll figure it out as we go''and not on medium-to longer-term planning.
which institutions and organisations are built and for management and planning. The two dimensions are power distance and uncertainty avoidance.
Managing New technology Development, Mcgraw-hill, USA, 1994, pp. 287 314.19 G. Hofstede, Cultural dimensions in management and planning, Asia Pacific Journal of Management 1984
The other respondents worked for planning organisations and other organisations directly linked to the Dutch government
such as ongoing planning, which are already in place. Despite the similarities between the national and the local level, it is doubtful
The logic behind this theme was to recognise the work already done in closely related areas, such as programme evaluation, futures studies, planning,
This method allows for greater flexibility when updating or changing targets, irrespective of established budgetary planning.
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning
A New Scientific understanding of Living Systems, Knopf Publishing Group, New york, 1997.55 B. Dempster, A Self-organizing Systems Perspective on Planning for Sustainability,(B. Sc. thesis), University
Planning 30 (1997) 242 253.67 S. Brignall, The unbalanced scorecard: a social and environmental critique, in:
from an initially government-internal planning program to an externally supported innovation program. This program also integrated external parties starting in 2007 to a new innovation program that is facilitated
evaluation, generation, planning, and deployment of business modeling concepts in yet underexplored business fields Project, singular activity 3. 6 Technology transfer program Increases the transfer activities from academia to business by detecting, stimulating
a new challenge for a regional approach to innovation systems, European Planning Studies 15 (2006) 195 215.17 H. A. von der Gracht, C. R. Vennemann,
opportunities and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizzo scanning may explore novel and unexpected issuues as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signals.
(or similar activities) in the past or are planning to carry out horizon scanning (or similar activities) in the future. The function of this network will be the exchange of experience and know-how,
and Public policy February 2010 16 weak signals and wild cards that may be used to assees the robustness of results that may come from other forward-looking tools as planning, scenarios and quantitative modelling.
while in Denmark it was a single exercise that may be repeated in the next planning cycle for the research agenda.
and innovation policies Improve the co-operation among different stakeholders Develop the planning and implementation of technology policy Understand the best methods and use of foresight Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 37 Results:
APEC Center for Technology foresight in Thailaan has had its strategy planning and scenario approaches used by their host department to help the government itself establish its longer term strategies.
Technology Roadmappping a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological forecasting & Social Change, 71 (1 2), 5 26.
and a planning approach that attempts to identify innovation application points. These features impact directly on the client's perceived ability and engagement.
A key factor in success is to start the exercise after a robust collective planning Step in the pre foresight phase of this methodological approach (see Section 4),
demands may be associated with innovation, competitiveness, long-term government planning, subsidies to S&t public policies, and the future of complex themes, such as climate change, demography, biodiversity, bioethanol, energy efficiency etc.
In this context, planning for out-of-the-box thinking is absolutely necessary if one is to break the mental barriers
planning for small and very large events such as the last three national S&t conferences organized by the CGEE
which must be considered in the formulation of policies, planning and decision-making. Martin, cited by Cuhls
considering existing challenges to Brazilian energy matrix in next 20 years Technologies for generation of electric energy, fuel supply and energy transmission and distribution, distributed generaatio and storage, planning
The four phases proposed for the development of the SMP (see Fig. 5) were defined to meet the needs of the process, taking into consideration FINEP's culture and experience in planning and management over the years.
In the organization's prior planning experiences, no other process had managed to gather a similar amount of information,
Thus, China can be categorized clearly as a top-down and centralized planning system, which focuses on large-scale accomplishments and numerical accomplishments, with a preference for grandiose plans.
if somewhat unevenly, developiin elements of both political planning and institutional empowerment, often under the political banner of‘controlled modernization'.
Instead, China seems to be forging its own way with an evolving mixture of planning, decentralization and deliberation. 1. 1 Trends in setting priorities Explicit models for science policy priority-setting devellope late and with great tensions.
but not always, under the coordinating umbrella of public research planning (Ruivo 1994). Today's mechanism for priority-setting in these countries is therefore a hybrid, sometimes drawing upon scientific expertise not only in low-level decision-making but also in the framing of societal challenges underlying science policy priorities (Pielke 2007),
Beginning with the founding of People's republic of china in 1949, a Socialist centralized S&t system was built in the 1950s by adding the Soviet model of centralized planning onto the S&t system that had emerged in the Republic of china (e g.
Research priority setting in China. 265 the ideal of planning also shapes and influences programs for excellence.
and programs and measures that are implemented outside the planning cycle. The five-year plans are the most obvious and structured tool of China's economic planning process in the sense that that it is clear to everyone
such as the 863 Program, the 973 Program or the KIP, are created outside the temporal planning cycle in response to problems
Planning in the straightforward sense is one defining element, a heritage from the post-WORLD WAR II planning exercises.
while also indicating the decoupling of science from the planning exercises of the past. 268.
overall the dominant legacy of centralized planning for grandiose projects still looms over science policy, and may continue to thwart the ambitiion of Chinese scientists to develop a more genuinely pluralist system of resource allocation.
or even impossiibl to solve by single agencies or through rational planning approaches. This has been understood well for some time among academics
Grand challenges are by nature complex and largely impervious to top-down rational planning approaches. Even their meanings tend to be highly contesste by different actors Furthermore,
and hence the basis for more effective contingency planning, and the design and development of appropriate forms of resilience Mobilising and structuring actor networks Improve implementation by enabling transparency,
which analytical guidelines are developed to facilitate the planning and implementation of joint research programmes (ERAC-GPC 2010).
Rittel, H. and Weber, M. 1973)‘ Dilemmas in a general theory of planning',Policy Sciences, 4: 155 69.
For instance, integration in view of central planning vs. competition in view of market forces defining urban development Individual regional foresight project‘Embedding foresight in transnatiiona research programming'Deals with deliberate approach to both rapid
and provided a prototype for subsequent internatioona research planning and coordination efforts by ICSU. A number of international coordination structures such as the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR)
and in this way is responsible for the planning and coordination infrastructures. In the area of climate change
To address these, there is a need for institutional leadership and mechanisms for planning, coordination and funding that are respected by the science community,
The exercise was led by ICSU's Committee on Scientific Planning and Review (CSPR) and was started in October 2009.
The time horizon of the foresight exercise had to be beyond ICSU's usual planning horizons of 5 10 years.
an International Perspective on National foresight Studies',review report to the ICSU Committee on Scientific Planning and Review Report.
Barker, D. and Smith, D. J. H. 1995)‘ Technology foresight using roadmaps',Long Range Planning, 28:21 8. Blackwell, A f.,Phaal, R.,Eppler, M
Linking technology resources into business planning',International Journal of Technology management, 26:12 9. Gann, D. and Salter, A. 2000)‘ Innovation in project-based, service-enhanced firms:
The role of embodied metaphors',Long Range Planning, 41: 309 25. Kostoff, R. N. and Schaller, R. R. 2001)‘ Science and technoloog roadmaps',IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 48: 132 43.
Phaal, R.,Farrukh, C. J. P. and Probert, D. R. 2004)‘ Technology roadmapping a planning framework for evoluttio and revolution',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 71:5 26.
Whittington, R. and Cailluet, L. 2008)‘ The crafts of strategy',Long Range Planning, 41: 241 7. 190.
and of research infrastructure planning with these programmmes The participation of the actors in research systems in a foresight process may also promote transparennc
and scoping its research programme it is often premature for many national agencies to decide on their level of committmen to that programme and its planning.
and even a key design variable in the planning and execution of foresight activities. The need for responsiveness by which they mean‘purposely designed managerial controls for making warranted mid-course adaptations to foresight objecttive
in applying particippator approaches and in working with longerteer planning, or when the research and innovation systems and capacities of the countries involved are highly diverse. 5. Conclusions Recent efforts in transnational research programming indicate that the mobilising effect of embedded foresight activities can lead to novel networking and cross-feeding of research and innovation
systematic exchange of information and good practices on existing programmes and activities. identification and analysis of common strategic issues. planning and development of joint activities between national and regional programmes. implementation
however, too early to draw any conclusions on possible discrepancies between planning and implementtatio of foresight activities in this case. 30.
the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and planning.
policy-makers downgraded the importance of the specific issue by maintaiinin their faith in the reassuring messages from the economic planning agencies (van Rij 2010b).
E. Amanatidou et al. cards in the civil aircraft and asset-management industries',Long Range Planning, 42:23 41.
the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning'and, continuing,
For this, we need first of all to look at the Fraunhofer Society itself. 3. The Fraunhofer approach 3. 1 Strategic R&d planning within the Fraunhofer governance model Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES have been used within corporate strategic R&d planning at Fraunhofer for several years.
FTA in this context supports Fraunhofer's strategic R&d planning. Hence, it needs to be oriented action
the government itself is involved not in the portfolio planning, but target agreements have to be negotiated every year.
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