Keywords Complexity, Disruptive events, Emergence, Reframing, Variation, Policy making, Complexity theory, Uncertainty management, Strategic planning Paper type Conceptual paper 1. Foresight techniques To date,
B Embrace emergence rather than planning and forecasting. B Focus on interactions rather than constituent parts.
rely on external planning and forecasting. They should enable visioning of phase change situations (with no early warning signals) and the resulting changed world.
Rami'rez, R. and Van der Heijden, K. Eds)( 2008), Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New methods for Applying Scenarios, Earthscan, London.
These experiences should be of interest to those involved in long-range strategy planning. Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report
on major future challenges. Topics of the reports vary according to what is considered to be highly significant to the nation's future at the time.
Infrastructure planning and ecological wood building booming areas. Domestic demand for mass-consumption goods has fallen,
A year after that, the government commissioned an evaluation on the effectiveness of the preparation process that would comment on the general progress of the process as well as the usability of this kind of foresight work in policy planning.
Keywords Territorial foresight, Scenario design, Urban planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Research paper 1. The oblivion of future studies in urban planning Since its origins in the nineteenth
2009-2011) has shown that most public agencies in charge of urban and regional planning, as well as private consultants conducting professional work in that field,
10.1108/14636681211256107 Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell is an Architect and Urban Planner, Deputy Director of the Urban and Regional planning Department,
and a Member of the Research group GIAU þ S based at the Urban and Regional planning Department,
Leticia Redondo is an Architect & Urban Planner in the Urban and Regional planning Department, Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.
Nowadays, citizen participation and collaboration amongst public and private stakeholders have become milestones in the planning realm.
which displays in a sequential and hierarchical way how urban development proceeds from territorial planning to urban planning,
The second set is composed of horizontal elements that provide integral support for all the operational procedures of the planning value chain.
Third, there is a tight relationship between futures studies and strategic planning (Ferna'ndez Gu ell, 2011. The need to think about the future
and formulate long-term development visions makes strategic planning a perfect client for futures studies. Since there are solid arguments for raising futures studies to a relevant position within the urban planning process,
and are becoming a decisive element in many planning exercises. As a matter of fact, in the last few years territorial foresight has gathered increasing attention from various European public bodies.
) The European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007) has published also the findings of its project‘‘Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe'',in
In this context, the planning value chain is integrated partially by the need to incorporate environmental planning into every step of the development process.
Other key elements are territorial planning and building rehabilitation. Real estate demand is very heterogeneous and segmented into multiple small groups
and wish to have a voice of their Figure 4 Scenario A‘‘green paradigm''VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 323 own in the planning process.
In this context, the planning value chain is fragmented very much and sectorialised because stakeholders'interests prevail over the basic sustainability criteria.
Developers are thus the most active agents in providing feedback to the planning process, mainly in its last stages.
frequent disputes between political, social and economic stakeholders hinder consensus. Horizontal elements such as legislation, technology and management are weak in the first stages of the planning stages,
the planning value chain is integrated highly, linking the different lines of sectoral planning under a comprehensive approach.
Environmental, transport and land-use planning are intertwined thus tightly and guided by a common long-range strategy.
Major outputs of the planning process are the creation of new natural sites, the provision of a high quality public transport system and the rehabilitation of integral parts of a city.
Each of the following spatial scenarios represents a planning concept taken to an extreme. The final shape adopted by the localities will be a meld of several issues
undertaking territorial planning or improving energy efficiency. Nevertheless, prospering in Scenario A will mean a major transformation in the Spanish society,
Nearly 20 personal interviews were made with planning practitioners and public officials in Spain. Interviewees were questioned systematically about their attitude toward future studies
B The transformation of the planning process will require reciprocal changes in the legal framework and the governance model.
A dynamic and sometimes turbulent environment puts enormous pressure on rational planning systems, which in many cases have been designed to simulate highly stable and predictable functional systems.
bringing futures into planning'',American Planning Association Journal, Vol. 67 No. 4, pp. 372-83. de Tera'n, F. 1996),‘Evolucio'n del planeamiento urbani
European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007), Scenarios on the Territorial Future of Europe, ESPON, Belgium.
an essay on the role of the future in planning practice and education'',Town planning Review, Vol. 56 No. 4, pp. 483-91.
a new window on the future'',American Planning Association Journal, Vol. 67 No. 4, pp. 367-72.
About the authors Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell is an Architect and Urban Planner, Deputy Director of the Urban and Regional planning Department,
He has a Bachelor's degree in Architecture from the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid as well as a Master's and a Phd in Urban and Regional planning from Texas A&m University.
Presently, he is a full-time Professor at the Urban and Regional planning Department of Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid and foresight advisor at Fundacio'n OPTI.
His professional and academic interests are focussed on strategic planning, territorial foresight and governance studies. He is the author of several articles and books related to strategic planning and foresight tools.
Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell is the corresponding author and can be contacted at: josemiguel. fernandez@upm. es Leticia Redondo is an Architect and Urban Planner at the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid.
She has a Bachelor's degree in Architecture and a Master's degree in Urban and Regional planning from the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid.
Keywords Law, Future-oriented analysis, Foresight, Scenario planning, Modelling, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction Future and Law 1 are two words that are rarely found in the same phrase.
limited to a short time span and resistant to prospective thinking and alternative planning. Despite the fact that scenarios have already been used in legal-oriented studies,
Their planning, as mentioned above, derived from the initial Delphi phase in which legal experts were consulted for their visions of the future of Law in their respective areas.
complementing the scenarios with a system of monitoring mechanisms, legal contingency planning, and preparatory measures.
while emphasizing the role of analysis in tactical and strategic planning (Beck, 2009). Based on comprehensive computer statistics, technology has allowed the law enforcement community to rapidly identify
and planning in organisations that depend on and participate in the development of science and/or technology. 4. 2. Roadmapping as a precursor of a TA process for specific nanotechnology applications The situation described above rather broad and largely unstructured field of investigation, mostly enabling technologies at early stages of development,
others think that the application of planning tools to topics of basic research might confine creativity
Suppose again that an FTA had been requested during the planning of the Fukushima power station where would the expertise have come from to conduct the study?
practices and techniques The challenge of coping with increasing uncertainty encouraged new analytical approaches to decision-making and long-range planning:
Second, we provide empirical evidence on the ways major companies designed their strategic foresight approaches to handling uncertainty and supporting long-range planning (Cassingena Harper et al. 2008;
Strategic planning in a turbulent environment: Evidence from the oil majors. Strategic management Journal 24, no. 6: 491 517.
The concept of a value chain became fundamental to strategic planning once Porter described how a firm can use it to identify sources of differentiation
and scope Planning Planning Planning D Run the business Inventory analysis Implementation and operation Accounting Delivery C Monitor the business Impact evaluation Verification and corrective action Auditing
focus on processes and activities planning-Change factors as processes and activities interdependence-Decision based on risk/reward-Integration starts;
alignment definition and review Design the business Defining and reviewing the strategy to implement the vision of sustainability Strategy Strategic and tactical planning definition and review Partnerships Partnerships selection;
A self-organizing systems perspective on planning for sustainability. B. Sc. Thesis, University of British columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Long Range Planning 26, no. 2: 59 68. Perlman, D, . and G. J. Takacs. 1990.
Design the business P It is the process of planning how the business must be shaped in roder to achieve the vision of sustainability via the definition of a strategy
and market drivers Strategy Strategic and holistic view of the research objects Strategic capacity of the organisation and/or entity Holistic roadmaps to be used in long-term strategic planning Technology space
which would transparently integrate planning, logistics, and information about the location of the machinery. In order to achieve these aims,
The fundamentals and competencies need to be positioned in the context of‘mobile strategies'that enable the continuous elaboration of targets and the planning of actions.
Long Range Planning 28, no. 2: 21 8. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
Linking technology resources into business planning. International Journal of Technology management 26, no. 1: 12 9. Geels, F. W. 2004.
Long Range Planning 41, no. 3: 309 25. Kostoff, R. N.,R. Boylan, and G r. Simons. 2004.
Technology roadmapping a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological forecasting & Social Change 71:5 26.
Long Range Planning 41, no. 3: 241 47. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014
Integrating technology monitoring, forecasting & assessment with strategic planning. SRA Journal (Society of Research Administrators) 26, no. 2: 21 31.
Keywords Foresight, Combination, Delphi method, Scenario, Innovation, Sustainable development, Forward planning Paper type Case study 1. Introduction The situation surrounding science and technology has undergone a radical change in recent years.
integration of technology roadmapping and the Delphi method'',International Journal of Technology intelligence and Planning, Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 184-200.
Mietzner, D. and Reger, G. 2005),‘Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight'',International Journal of Technology intelligence and Planning, Vol. 1 No. 2, pp. 220-39.
Research policy makers need specific information and insight on how the structured view of the future provided by foresight affects their strategic planning.
Keywords Foresight, Strategic dialogue, Research policy, Stakeholder alignment, Scenario planning, Germany, Innovation, Strategic planning, Governance, Management Paper type Case study 1. The challenge of transferring foresight results Through research policy,
but also specific information on how this view affects their strategic planning. The key challenge is that research policy makers are not a homogeneous group, even within a single institution,
In this paper we demonstrate how existing approaches for transferring foresight results into strategic planning can be applied to research policy making.
and similar strategy processes into research policy making and research infrastructure creation. 2. Lessons from earlier work The challenge of transferring foresight results into strategic planning is well known in a business context.
and B compatibility with existing strategic planning activities in individual units within the BMBF. 6. Conclusions Strategic dialogues have proved to be an effective and efficient instrument for achieving the transfer of results from strategic processes such as Foresight into research policy making.
Keywords Foresight Grand challenges, Research and innovation policy, Research prioritization, Forward planning, Innovation, Ireland Paper type Case study 1. Introduction Foresight methods have been used widely around the world to enable the research
Keywords Priority-setting, Russia, Natural resources, Long term planning, Foresight project planning, Innovation, Technology led strategy, Sciences Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction In recent years
Keywords Strategic technology foresight, Competitive technology intelligence, Delphi topic analysis, International patent classification system, Sustainable energy, Innovation, Forward planning Paper type Research paper 1
Also, the rule of foresight has changed from the previous explorative forecasting to more be come more oriented to strategic planning (Martin, 1995.
and understand S&t-related shifts or trends in the competitive environment as a preparation for organizational planning and strategic development.
of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP) Foresight and Strategy Planning Team, Korean Institute of S&t Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP), The Science
Hence, devising an FTA project requires careful planning, and well-reasoned decisions on its main features/elements:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 are by nature complex and largely impervious to top-down rational planning approaches.
and governance network-building coupled with avoiding centralised S&t planning. In Germany, FTA is used mainly for addressing the future of existing areas of strength
8 H. Ritteland, M. Weber, Dilemmas in a general theory of planning, Policy Sci. 4 (1973) 155 169.9 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M
, product planning and technology development for product life cycle, CIRP Ann. Manuf. Technol. 43 (1)( 2008) 157 162.4 J. P. Martino, Technological forecasting for Decision making, 3rd Edition Mcgraw-hill, New york, NY, 1993.5 A t. Roper, S w
This is called contingency planning, and is implemented in Step IV. Signposts specify information that should be tracked
and expected values are used in planning decisions. Also, since the installation of new capacity mostly happens in large chunks,
0000 MW for different technologies Planning and construction periods Average period for planning and constructing new capacity for a technology Parametric Varying between 1 and 5 years for different technologies Progress ratios Ratio for determining cost reduction due to learning curve Parametric Varying
and a short planning and construction time for Technology 1 also hinder the transition toward sustainability,
and longer planning and construction period for Technology 2, lead to low fractions of sustainable technologies.
Preference against unknown Average planning and construction period Tech. 1 Lifetime of Technology 1 Lifetime of Technology 3 CO2 avoidance performance of Technology 2 Expected
Using FTA for planning for action is one area where the handling of uncertainty is crucial.
the paper offers a new technique for FTA practitioners in their work of supporting long-term planning. Another important challenge inmany FTA projects is supporting amulti-actor process.
Acknowledgments This study is part of the project Dealing with Uncertainties in Infrastructure Planning and Design:
References 1 J. H. Kwakkel, W. E. Walker, V. A w. J. Marchau, Adaptive airport strategic planning, Eur.
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008, pp. 1 13.20 L. Albrechts, Strategic (spatial) planning reexamined,
. Kastenholz, A. Klinke, J. Markard, M. Maurer, A. Ruef, The exploratory analysis of trade-offs in strategic planning:
His research focused on the treatment of uncertainty in long-term airport planning. He currently works as a postdoc on the treatment of uncertainties in model-based decision support for fresh water supply in The netherlands at Delft University of Technology.
In making policy or planning decisions about complex and uncertain problems, EMA can provide new knowledge,
E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 that policy or planning debates can often be served even by the discovery of thresholds, boundaries,
or planning even when prediction and optimization are not possible by using the available partial information in a systematic and transparent way.
or prevent certain undesirable dynamics. 3. 2. Adaptive planning for airport development The air transport industry operates in a rapidly changing context.
Their long-term planning is therefore of crucial importance 36. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol has been working over the last couple of years on a plan for guiding its long-term development 37,38.
2. Uncertainties A wide variety of uncertainties are important in long-term airport planning. Table 4 gives an overview of the major uncertainties that are explored in this case.
slope change fraction Yearly fractional change in the slope of the load duration curve-0. 01 0. 01 Planning horizon of the generation companies Upper bound for the planning horizon of the generation companies.
Sci. 44 (1998) 820 830.15 J. H. Kwakkel, The Treatment of Uncertainty in Airport Strategic planning, Faculty of technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2010.16
analysis of trade-offs in strategic planning: lessons from regional infrastructure foresight, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 76 (2009) 1150 1162.17 J. Kooroshy, C. Meindersma, R. Podkolinski, M. Rademaker, T. Sweijs, A. Diederen, M. Beerthuizen, S. de
, Adaptive airport strategic planning, Eur. J. Transp. Infrastruct. Res. 10 (2010) 227 250.36 R. de Neufville, A. Odoni, Airport Systems:
Thesis, 2004.50 S. J. Heblij, R. A a. Wijnen, Development of a runway allocation optimisation model for airport strategic planning, Transportation Planning and Technology 31 (2
He has worked on cases in various domains including air transport, port planning, fresh water supply in The netherlands, world water scarcity issues,
or scenario specialists 3. Developing and using scenarios can contribute at various levels of society by generating appropriate inputs for planning
several scholars state that scenarios constitute a major tool for considering the future in strategic planning 18 23.
Futures thinking Futures thinking is used for medium to long-term strategic analysis and planning. According to Jørgensen 41, citing Dreborg 42,
the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,
Scenario building and planning was developed further for management purposes, for example through the works of Pierre Wack
i e. window of opportunity, we looked at scenarios as a tool to support planning and decision-making.
Also for the third group of scenario practice, we suggest some areas of improvement with regard to legitimizing actions by adding a planning perspective via roadmaps or similar approaches.
In addition, several scholars state that scenarios constitute a major tool for considering the future in strategic planning 18
Exploring the future, The role of interaction in foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 11. eforesee Malta L a. Pace,(in press) Strategic planning for the Future:
R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, K. Van der Heijden, The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures
The Fast Start to Technology Roadmapping, Planning Your Route to Success, Centre for Technology management, Ifm University of Cambridge, 2001.56 T. J. Gordon, S&t roadmapping, in:
OECD (Ed.),Fostering Innovation to Address Social challenges, Workshop Proceedings, OECD, Paris, 2011, pp. 59 64.80 M. Godet, The art of scenarios and strategic planning:
In the case of nanotechnology, there was no centralized and formal planning process, but rather a coordination of future-oriented activities that allowed the departments involved to develop their own individual agendas
the NNI uses advanced strategic planning methods and tools and acts as a kind of umbrella organization for pooling heterogeneous future-oriented activities.
planning societal implications research for the National Nanotechnology Program, Technol. Soc. 27 (2005) 321 328.40 M d. Cobb, Framing effects on public opinion about nanotechnology, Sci.
In planning subsequent such FTA gatherings, it may be useful to look for signs of shared sense-making frameworks able to encompass, on the one hand, a tightly constrained roadmapping of a given technology within the assumptions of a specific scenario of national/European competitiveness,
+34 667448936 Riel Miller UNESCO, Bureau of Strategic planning, 7 Place Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07 SP, France E-mail address:
and introduces a conceptual framework for analysing cultural differences in foresight and planning. Section 3 contains background information on the Danish economy and culture
(b) Danish traditions and styles for governmental long range planning and policy making, and (c) Danish experiences with technology foresight.
and planning was carried out by Dutch psychologist and anthropologist Geert Hofstede 19. In this study, we use Hofstede's definition of culture.
and he discusses the implication of each dimension for management and planning. As we will elaborate in the following,
the use of longer-term planning tools such as foresight in general, the selection of foresight methods, and the inclusion of experts and citizens.
The uncertainty avoidance dimension has several implications for national management and planning cultures. In particular, three of these implications relate to foresight:
types of planning, meaning of time, and tolerance for deviant ideas. The first implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to a society's view on planning in general.
Even among wealthy and highly developed democracies, it is possible to find differences in planning practices.
In countries with more uncertainty avoidance, such as France and Japan, short-and medium-term scheduling
Conversely, strategic planning presupposes a distancing from the certainties (and known uncertainties) of the past and a significant amount of tolerance for new uncertainties.
and cultural context of governmental foresight and long range planning As history and cultural context are important,
this section contains background information for understanding the use of governmental foresight and long range planning.
First, during the 1970s, Denmark had some rather negative experiences with prospective planning. In two prospective plans (Perspektivplan I and II) from 1971 and 1974, the government analysed social trends and developments 15 and 20 years ahead for the public and private sectors, respectively.
The focus in Denmark seems to be set on‘‘We'll figure it out as we go''and not on medium-to longer-term planning.
Denmark has carried out foresight-like processes and strategic planning within individual sectors. For example various energy action plans have many similarities to foresight, both with regard to the processes and results.
and citizens panels in municipal and regional planning. In the latter case, the focus is on the inclusion of and interaction with the wider public and not on expertise-oriented types of foresight methods. 4. Two cases:
Considering Danish society's low uncertainty avoidance, the initiation and implementation of a long-term planning project such as the Globalisation Strategy might be contradictory.
Hofstede mentions that it has been shown that strategic planning is actually more popular in countries that display less uncertainty avoidance,
The reason for this is that strategic planning presumes a tolerance for uncertainty and for creating distance from the certainties of the past Daring new policies,
which institutions and organisations are built and for management and planning. The two dimensions are power distance and uncertainty avoidance.
Managing New technology Development, Mcgraw-hill, USA, 1994, pp. 287 314.19 G. Hofstede, Cultural dimensions in management and planning, Asia Pacific Journal of Management 1984
The other respondents worked for planning organisations and other organisations directly linked to the Dutch government
such as ongoing planning, which are already in place. Despite the similarities between the national and the local level, it is doubtful
glocalization/grobalization and something/nothing, Sociological Theory 21 (3)( 2003) 193 209.22 M. Weber, Foresight and adaptive planning as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making:
This concept was developed by using elements from adaptive strategic planning in order to address shortcomings of more Conventional foresight
The logic behind this theme was to recognise the work already done in closely related areas, such as programme evaluation, futures studies, planning,
this knowledge is crucial in view of strategic planning and decision making within innovation research. Therefore, lowering this uncertainty is an important challenge,
This intelligence can than serve as relevant input for decision making and strategic planning within the innovation trajectory.
This method allows for greater flexibility when updating or changing targets, irrespective of established budgetary planning.
41 (2000) 29 40.3 A. Raps, Implementing strategy, Strategic Finance June (2004) 49 54.4 H. Mintzberg, The fall and rise of strategic planning, Harvard Business Review
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning
A New Scientific understanding of Living Systems, Knopf Publishing Group, New york, 1997.55 B. Dempster, A Self-organizing Systems Perspective on Planning for Sustainability,(B. Sc. thesis), University
Planning 30 (1997) 242 253.67 S. Brignall, The unbalanced scorecard: a social and environmental critique, in:
from an initially government-internal planning program to an externally supported innovation program. This program also integrated external parties starting in 2007 to a new innovation program that is facilitated
evaluation, generation, planning, and deployment of business modeling concepts in yet underexplored business fields Project, singular activity 3. 6 Technology transfer program Increases the transfer activities from academia to business by detecting, stimulating
a new challenge for a regional approach to innovation systems, European Planning Studies 15 (2006) 195 215.17 H. A. von der Gracht, C. R. Vennemann,
opportunities and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizzo scanning may explore novel and unexpected issuues as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signals.
Within The netherlands the preliminary results of the horizon scan (COS) were used also as input for the strategic planning
(or similar activities) in the past or are planning to carry out horizon scanning (or similar activities) in the future. The function of this network will be the exchange of experience and know-how,
and Public policy February 2010 16 weak signals and wild cards that may be used to assees the robustness of results that may come from other forward-looking tools as planning, scenarios and quantitative modelling.
while in Denmark it was a single exercise that may be repeated in the next planning cycle for the research agenda.
and innovation policies Improve the co-operation among different stakeholders Develop the planning and implementation of technology policy Understand the best methods and use of foresight Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 37 Results:
APEC Center for Technology foresight in Thailaan has had its strategy planning and scenario approaches used by their host department to help the government itself establish its longer term strategies.
Technology Roadmappping a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological forecasting & Social Change, 71 (1 2), 5 26.
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