| Internet (142) |  |
| Internet applications (13) | |
| Internet (142) | |
| Internet applications (13) | |
Methodologically, the processwas based on the Internet-based solicitation and assessment of research issues, the deployment ofrobust Portfoliomodeling (RPM) in the identification of promising research issues,
and facilitated workshops where the results of Internet-based activities where discussed, validated and synthesized.
we discuss the broader potential of Internet-based decision support tools and participatory workshops in promoting foresight activities within ERA NETS and European coordination tools. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
we discuss the deployment of Internet-based methods and multi-criteria analyses based on Robust Portfolio Modeling (briefly RPM Screening;
, Internet-based group-support systems, facilitated workshops, RPM Screening) were employed to foster vision-building, networking and priority setting in the development of a shared research agenda for an international research program. 3. Shaping of research agendas in Woodwisdom-Net Woodwisdom-Net4 was started in 2004 as one of the ERA NETS supported by European union.
so that extensive use was made of Internet-based decision support tools (see the consultation process homepage5). More specifically, the consultation processes sought to respond to the general objectives of embedded foresight in the following ways, among others:
as well as by the treatment of research areas and research themes as relevant‘units of analysis'that experts could be assessed with the Internet-based decision support tool.
scheduling, provision of IT infrastructure, compilation of results from Internet-based consultation activities, facilitation of workshops.
and synthesized through extensive Internet-based consultations and carefully planned workshops. The main phases are summarized in Table 1. Over 400 stakeholders from all participating countries participated in the process.
In the first phase, National Coordinators invited Researchers in their respective countries to submit research issues through the Internet questionnaire. 8 These questionnaires were implemented by using Opinions-Online decision support tool9
In Mid-february, three workshops were organized to take stock of results fromthe Internet-based activities and to develop tentative recommendations about
Before the workshops, results from the Internet-based activities were compiled and distributed to the participants
and taken forward to another level of analysis. A challenge in using the Internet as a platform for structured deliberative consultation processes is that such processes are new to many participants.
The analysis of regulatory foresight in the narrow sense is based, first, on a broad survey of literature databases and the internet regarding regulatory impact assessments in general,
and inquiries about the location of luggage or an individual (with that person's approval) are done commonly through the internet from home
what will be the next internet innovations? enables a probability model to be constructed that anticipates novel combinations of technologies.
Using this model he identified a range of technology changes associated with new standards for accessible internet applications within 100days of their emergence and without prior reference to the individual technology morphologies pathways progression.
the Internet, science and technology databases, patent databases, newswires, and potentially also newsgroups or other online collaborative environments.
Ajax is responsible for the smoothly scrolling maps seen in Google earth and other internet applications (Fig. 5, below.
include grid computing, the ipod and iphone, virtualization and LAMPP. 4. 1. Data collection and comparative analysis For the case study we collect data about Ajax and component technologies from the Internet.
Many of these nodes in this expanded network are now very remote in content from Internet technologies.
and web application technologies (including key phrases of rich Internet applications, style sheets, web applications). The Monte carlo simulation procedure evaluated a range of competing solutions to the model.
and Mozilla all various kinds of Internet browsers are placed in different locations in the hierarchical random graph.
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 As seen in Table 3 the model anticipates a threefold combination of Internet explorer, rich Internet applications and the World wide web consortium (W3c), with a likelihood of 81%.
the World wide web consortium has developed recently standards for accessible rich Internet applications, and these standards are being incorporated into new capabilities for the Internet explorer browser.
Accessible rich Internet applications (or ARIA) are web pages whose contents are much more accessible to people with disabilities.
This new standard for rich Internet applications was incorporated in a recent beta version of Internet explorer 8. 5. Policy impacts These developments in ARIA are less than a year old at the time this paper was written the W3c posted a working draft
The current Wikipedia Accessible Rich Internet applications page is only a stub without the detailed hyperlinks typical of awikipedia page.
In summary, the hierarchical random graph did seem to anticipate new technological changes in the area of new standards for accessible rich Internet applications.
No Topic Node Topic Percent likelihood 11 Internet explorer 25 Rich Internet applications 80.7%11 Internet explorer 37 W3c 80.7%25 Rich Internet applications 37
Style sheet (Web Development) 70.0%15 Javascript 13 Internet Bookmark 69.0%15 Javascript 29 Search engines 64.7%40 XMLHTTPREQUEST 38 XHTML 57.8
The case study recognized impending change in nodes related to W3c standard setting, rich Internet technologies, and Internet explorer.
U s a. 104 (39)( 2007) 15224 15229.24 A. Vazquez, R. Pastor-Satorras, A. Vespignani, Large-scale topological and dynamical properties of the Internet, Phys.
for accessible rich internet applications, W3c Working Draft, 4 february 2008,2008, Accessed 28 august 2008. http://www. w3. org/TR/wai-aria-roadmap/.
For example, the Internet has made participatory approaches among geographically dispersed people practical. Just forty years ago, computers were not much of a factor in futures research.
Furthermore, new technologies such as wireless Internet, knowledge visualization software, and improved computer translation will allow more international foresight activities to build collective intelligence through participatory feedback systems far more complex than the current futures research methods.
instantly updated media such as the Internet and popular TV programmes of science and technology. 4. Conclusions Despite the inevitable methodological challenges,
As there is not a single methodology for searching procedures, the methods contained quantitative methods like bibliometrics as well as qualitative approaches like workshops, expert interviews, internet and qualitative literature searches.
research in databases and the internet. This search was combined with a bibliometric approach. Literature was analysed.
The (internet, literature and other) searches and first selection processes were complemented by expert interviews and informal talks to arrive at an impression of the importance and potential impact of the huge number of topics under consideration.
and was designed to broaden participation through allowing the shape of the study to evolve 2 as participation through the Internet reveals issues of importance.
Telephone surveys The Internet Postal surveys Public meetings Public enquiries Invited workshops Interactive television Videoconferencing Electronic meetings or surveys based on:
The Internet including VOIP Asynchronous e-mail Telephone conferencing Consensus conferences Social accounting and auditing. Behavioural traits (see the VALS 1 hierarchy) will have marked a influence on
Such a description shows how Internet-based tools were critical to support the achievement of expected results within the tight schedule available.
Additional Internet sources: More Information (in German) on the foresight and strategy process is available at:
In addition, many researchers share information via the Internet (e g.,, physicists increasingly post their papers at arxiv. org.
others directly using passwords through their internet sites, and some using CD-ROMS. At times the Technology policy and Assessment Center at Georgia Tech has accessed such sources through a gateway service,
But note that we also tap Internet sources here, for company information. In general, we find that the databases provide much richer S&t information resources with a measure of quality control.
We like to use the Internet to complement these by providing more up-todaat and contextual information.
then update and probe using the internet. Note that Figs. 1 and 2 reflect distinctly different considerations.
and characterised focus areas of competences by making extensive use of Internet-based tools and by engaging in intensive deliberations at facilitatedworkshops.
and focus areas of competence through the internet before the panel meetings. Specifically, about three weeks before the first panel meeting the purpose
of which was to address driving forces that would set the stage for the development of focus areas each panellist was requested to propose through the internet three to five driving forces using the template.
the panellists were invited again through the internet to assess (i) the probability of each driving force
In the same vein, before the second panel meeting the panellists were requested to submit three to five proposals through the internet questionnaire for focus areas of competences using the template.
The resulting proposals were subjected then to an internet-based assessment so that the other panellists could evaluate the focus areas with regard to (i) current level of expertise in Finland
The internet-based questionnaires before the workshop meetings offered many benefits. First, the panellists could contribute equally to the process
Third, results from the internet surveys were made available to all panels which could thus monitor what topics the other panels were considering
For example, the compilation of documents from the internet-based questionnaires showed the full distributions of the panellists'assessment ratings
While this did lead to some divergence between panels (for instance in the use of compilation documents from the internet-based questionnaires),
in terms of its methodological approach, Finnsight was unique thanks to the extensive combination of internet-based questionnaires and facilitated workshops.
In hindsight, the development of novel methodological approaches in Finnsight most notably the definition of dedicated units of analysis (driving forces, focus areas of competences) and the extensive deployment of internet-based tools for engaging the panel
Examples include abstracts that speculate about currently gestating technologies with the potential eventually to have an impact similar in scope to that of the Internet in the past 20 years.
What's the next development that will be as transformative as the Internet was? Current odds-on favorites among some scanners involve research initiatives funded by the U s. Defense Advanced Research projects Agency (DARPA;
the same group that funded early Internet development) that are looking beyond the packet-switching architecture
and self-healing and depend on a peer-to-peer architecture that avoids routing bottlenecks typical of the current Internet
This has made use of foresight in the form of internet-based decision support tools. As an example of embedded foresight, Brummer et al. indicate three roles for such an application of foresight:(
) Yet new means of communication not just the internet, but Web2. 0 social networking approaches, and collaborative modelling approaches are creating opportunities for much broader engagement in FTA ACTIVITIES.
Another more recent example is that of using the Internet and the tcp ip protocol to transport voice calls.
This application of the Internet represents a technological discontinuity for traditional telephone companies and provides an opportunity for small entrepreneurs to enter the telephone business with relatively little investment.
In general, the Internet and the Web represent technological discontinuities for many sectors and thus both create new opportunities
as we train our reference librarians to do Internet reference using search engines, portals, and Web research guides we are finding less use of the Library of Congress classification system, a system
or in technology terms, the speed of take up of‘‘Mosaic''(precursor to Netscape) as the first Internet browser in 1993,
cultural, physical and biological improvements New investments in the Internet capacity improvement Progress in genetic therapy, stem cells and molecular medicine pharmacology Sunburst of change in vehicle technology
all drugs allowed Human decisions change because of the Internet advisory capacity Slow down in the world population from development Science
but the results of the ongoing foresight and scenario work were communicated to the general public via the internet for comments and discussion.
regional organizations emerge as a key part of developing legal borders. 3. The Legal Internet Scenario:
Change and meaning in the age of the Internet. Oxford: Oxford university Press. Tushman, M. L,
New applications and consumption opportunities have become ever more widespread Internet, digital camera and camera phones, pay-TV, sport events, home cinema and film (video) on demand, game consoles,
Internet services such as video on demand) and the rise of completely newkinds of players (e g.
in order to deepen the investigation of state uncertainty (e g. evolution of demand for new Internet-based services on TV),
In recent years, the development of the internet has broadened the potential of exercises: it has enabled the enhancement of foresight objectives (Cachia et al.
the fast progress of the internet offers new opportunities for participatory projects, of both quantitative2 and qualitative nature;
Examples of current and upcoming FTA practices Internet-based tools allowing for integration of data of various sorts Online sharing of perspectives on different data types:
tools and data (from unstructured text from internet to reports uploaded by experts), and the sharing of perspectives across the network is supported by a set of perspective visualisation tools.
On the Internet, a Google search yields the following results (April 2004) 2, 800,000 hits for globalization, 6, 600,000 for complexity,
the Internet, power-grids and transportation systems are but a few examples. For a review on this field I suggest the reading of two recent review articles 29,30,
One of the recommendations published in the Nanokommission's final report in 2011 is that the German federal government should establish a national cross-departmental internet platform providing information on developments and activities in the field of nanotechnologies 51.
and published on the internet site of the project. For each signal of change a possible impact on the future of innovation was estimated in an intuitive manner by the project members
but also in the weak signal collection available on the internet. 2 The movie is available at www. innovation-futures. org. 455 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change
What starts with Web 2. 0. features on the internet could lead to a society where customers become completely transparent.
if it became possible to scan the internet for ideas and to filter those ideas according to current customer needs automatically?
Furthermore the high number of people watching the trailer in the internet can be interpreted as an appreciation of the visualisation.
innovation Daniel Kaplan FING association pour la Fondation Internet Nouvelle Génération, The next Generation Internet Foundation,
Empirically, this section is based on publicly available reports and internet information from relevant governmental bodies (ministries and agencies.
Another phase was a public internet-based hearing for all interested parties. This hearing resulted in 432 proposals for themes from individual citizens
including roadmapping group Formal Interviews, mutual learning workshops, online surveys, wiki platform, website, dissemination activities Personal contacts and Internet Informal Online surveys, wiki platform, website
, dissemination activities Research Partners'databases Formal Online surveys, wiki platform, website, dissemination activities Personal contacts and Internet Informal C. Cagnin,
the impacts of new technologies (e g. the impacts of the internet on teaching; demographic change; increased competition and the need to do well in national and global rankings;
Internet: http://www. itas. fzk. de. 461 F. Scapolo et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461
Another crucial evolution concerns the growing convergence of TV and the Internet and the introduction of new hardware systems and services.
which tries to combine the best of TV with the best of the internet (such as e g.,
In the light of new internet-based contents and services which offer new possibilities and features to Table 1 Results from expert survey (N=15.
In this respect, platforms such as Hulu, Netflix, internet TV Samsung, Googletv and Appletv were evaluated in terms of collaboration with other players (e g.
analogue cable TV viewers (S1 in Fig. 2), digital cable TV viewers (S2 in Fig. 2) and internet and connected TV viewers (S3 in Fig
On day 4, the focus was explicitly on the combination TV Internet: participants were asked to indicate where they would want to watch TV
With respect to the digital Internet TV viewers finally, 4 positive and 2 negative users were involved in the cultural probing.
and TV SET of the future viewer, included the increasing convergence between TV, PC and the internet, the shift from 3-dimensional television (3d TV) to holographic TV and 4-dimensional television (4d TV), in
Moreover, this viewer is interested not in TV connected through the Internet. The positive digital Internet TV viewer (PP3) is very much into new technologies
and has a real innovator profile. New gadgets and ICT products are adopted immediately, price is not an issue.
The PP3 is also a very intensive internet user who uses multiple devices and screens (e g.,
The negative digital Internet TV viewer (NP3) finally, currently has a TV SET that is connected over the Internet,
For the internet and connected TV personas finally, the biggest difference that was found between the positive and negative persona was that the former is ready and eager to experience future TV now and that the latter emphasises the importance of gradual change
Especially for TV connected to the internet, this multi-screen aspect was found to be of crucial importance.
Use of the internet for future-oriented technology analysis. Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain
Comparison of the scan data The comparison of data was based on the data of the UK HSC Sigma Scan11 and Delta Scan12 as publisshe on the internet
issues were collected from a variety of (future) literature and the internet and through consultation with experts (workshops, interviiew etc..
Once complete, the UK horizon scans were publisshe on a public internet site (see Notes 11 and 12.
The netherlands horizon scan was published on an open internet site (see Note 8) at an early stage of the project,
In Denmark, the scan issues were used as input for the selection of prioritised research themes in a four-year cycle of research funding (see Figure 3). The scan data were used alongside the outcome of a public internet‘hearing'process that delivered an additional input
New distribution channels, like broadband internet and wireless communications are driving growth in this industry. Furthermore Europe's strong cultural heritage provides a sound basis for this sector
(28) Cable TV and satellite TV network operators are the predominant distributors of video-on-demand over the internet (30) Content creation for educational purposes (e-learning) reaches a 20%share
a future in which negative effects of ICT-based media producctio and distribution (e g. spamming) have resullte in a widespread loss of popularity for the internet.
It is also an opportunnit to convey non-classified results to a broader audience, through the dissemination of information via the Internet or by means of publications, seminars, confereence etc.
nanoelectronics (ENIAC) and fuel cells and hydrogen (FCH) as well as the Future Internet Initiative. 6. See<http://cordis. europa. eu/fp7/jtis/about-jti en. html>accessed 19 dec 2011.7.
and are enabled peer-to-peer through information technology and the internet (cf. Cachia et al. 2007. Examples of web 2. 0 networks include:
In some ways, a lot has changed since 1990, e g. the internet, but in others, many of the problems faced in 2010 were discussed already widely, e g. environmental concerns.
virtual worlds ICT solutions, like cloud computing, for smart grids Electricity storages for smart grids 3d Internet technologies Figure 5. Technology roadmap on‘extending natural resources'as a subset of a transformation
Remote collaboration services provide a sense of telepresence over the internet, resulting in a more extensive use of teleworking and virtual conferencing.
varying from cloud computing to communication technologies. 3d internet technologies will enable novel remote collaboration solutions
and synthesised through extensive internet-based consultations and carefully planned workshoops 317 future-oriented research issues were proposed by researchers
and research themes as relevant‘units of analysis'that experts could assess with an internet-based decision support tool.
The use of a structured approach and exploitation of the internet can support the monitoring,
Towards this end, the case studies in Section 3 and numerous other studies36 show evidence of the benefits of applying internet-based soluttion to obtain fast
and cost-efficient stakeholder engageement An optimal use of internet applications for stakeholder engagement and the exploitation of the informmatio collected
A set of examples of internet-based tools allowing for integration of data of all sorts in future-oriented technollog analysis can be found in Haegeman et al.
and other internet sources such as blog reports, literature consultation, but also Conference table 1. Summary of concepts applied in horizon scanning Concept Description Weak signals Citing from Igor Ansoff,
and scanning tools Both of the above approaches used the internet as their main source of information.
These methods can be mapped within a methodological framework (see Fig. 2). The focused expert review was mainly based on internet scanning with the use of search engines.
Internet scanning makes it possible to search for signals that can be traced in written sources but also in audiovisual material.
A focused expert review supported by internet scanning has the advantage that it can use any available source and tool that is on the internet.
Twitter is an internet social-network and micro-blogging platform with both mass and interpersonal communication features for sharing 140-character messages (known as tweets), with other users (known as followers.
Another advantage of internet scanning is that it uses all available sources of information on the internet (including audiovisual information) as well as web tools such as those mentioned above.
In addition, internet scanners can use web-based translation facilities to overcome language barriers. The restriction is the fact that professional scanners may have biases in their searches and interpretation of findings.
In the SESTI project this was done by internet scanning with the use of the publicly available search engines such as Google and Bing.
alerts for emerging issues coming from the (expert reviewed) internet scanning were assessed discussse and, thus serving the alert function.
Cross-checking with results from recent foresight exercises In focused expert review by tracing back on internet (e g. google timeline) As reported by survey respondents;
In unstructured Internet text-mining results can be filtered according to their issue, to their organisation, to their reputation and creditability on the Internet.
for instance may allow new meanings (Nonaka 1994) to be synthesized through the shared development of crosscutting challennges From a methodological perspective, internet-based tools for continuous idea generation (Graefe et al. 2010), idea management
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