Synopsis:
Development:
ART1.pdf
there has been little systematic attention to conceptual development, research on improved methods, methodological choice, or how best to merge empirical/analytical methods with stakeholder engagement processes.
These approaches offered further refinement and support to the development of robustness in spite of added complexities in implementation.
The discussion also addressed the wider issues of the broadening perspectives that are being introduced to future work beyond technology and its development.
There was a concern expressed that the existing guides to methodologies had moved not forward to encompass these developments.
Trends were appearing in terms of focus of countries at different stages of economic development with those countries with lower development levels favouring a socioeconomic focus while those with higher levels of economic development lean towards a techno-economic focus.
and constraining the development of emerging technologies, failing to use available techniques to encourage culture change in stakeholder organisations
the authors of the papers suggest a number of developments such as a more systematic integration of new technology (especially ICT) to allow interaction
Other developments deal with reducing the domain of unknowable that play an important role when dealing with the future
and detect early signals of change such as discontinuities, inflection points, outliers or disruptive developments. The process is targeted mainly to the private sector
stress the pressure that new technology developments are posing to the field of TA. Therefore, in order to continue to be effective,
and visualisation techniques as supporting tools for FTA especially to assess technological development in the short term.
They stimulate the development of new insights on simulation methods and evolutionary programming. The paper shows that concepts applied to biological evolution are applicable, through useful metaphors, to economics and technology assessment.
ART10.pdf
a development that in conjunction with the new possibilities offered by information and communication technologies has given rise to an internationalisation of research and innovation.
actors need to be able to adjust to external developments and other actors'strategies as they unfold
Making choices about the directions of new emerging technological options is very difficult in the early stages of development
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 tendances lourdes can be identified like the development of electricity and propulsion technologies starting in the late 19th century and information
which external developments (such as the strategies of other actors but also exogenous developments) can vary. And it is enhanced by coherent actions of a range of key decisionmakker in research policy, economy and society.
say, on what RTD projects to fund and which not to fund. 2. 1. Foresight recent developments,
or the audience and the purpose addressed. 2 Common to many foresight exercises is the development of either different scenarios,
one can observe similar developments in technology assessment where the growing prominence of social, economic, environmental and ethical concerns related to scientific and technological developments has led to a strengthening of participatory and constructive approaches 8, 9. Here,
the aim is to negotiate consensus on risks and opportunities or at least achieve transparency about conflicting viewpoints,
in order to contribute to a normative debate on desirable future development paths. Finally, we can today see a strong emphasis on
but in particular also decisionmakker from research, industry, policy-making and society, a shared understanding of current problems, goals and development options is expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.
one is led to an approach that first tries carefully to map available decision options as well as possible future developments.
if adopted, can be expected to work reasonably well across the whole identified span of possible future developments.
e g. when considering the development of a highly integrated production facility like a steel plant,
These projects focused on strategy and programme development in research, technology and innovation policy, and stressed the interdependenciie with other policy areas and other innovation actors.
while underestimating the influence on the future course of events of external developments that are beyond the influence of these actors.
goals and an strategies at different levels to actual developments in reality. Also this is an immediate consequence of and an input into adaptive planning.
i e. of recent and current developments along the lines of the perspective on complex innovation processes.
After all, it is external developments that drive the need for adaptation. 24 The understanding of innovation systems analysis as used here is based on the conventional actor-oriented approach as pioneered by Freeman 44 and Lundvall 45 in the late 1980s and early 1990s
however, important that participants do devote considerable attention to truly external developments. 474 E. A. Eriksson,
specification of exploratory framework scenarios In either of the cases at the end of Phase 2, the scenario ideas need much additional development.
In other words, AF should be interpreted as part of a broader continuous learning process that comprises the implementation and evaluation of specific policy measures as well as a monitoring of relevant developments in policy at large.
what is still missing is the integration of these methods in a continuous and long-term strategy development process.
Especially the individualised phases 8 and 9 as well as the implementation phase 10 represent emergent developments,
it is defensive in accepting the need to adapt to external developments beyond a single's actors influence,
However, Adaptive foresight is still at an early stage of development and testing. Further development of the approach is needed particularly in the following three respects:
The AF approach as outlined in this paper is based on experience from small developed countries. But the basic argument, we contend,
In a globalised and interdependent economy, not even the largest countries are in a position to fully dominate technoloogica development,
but need to be prepared to respond to unexpected developments. The notion of adaptivity seems also very relevant from the perspective of developing countries that strongly depend on foreign markets and technologies.
So far, thinking in terms of real options in the context of foresight is still in an early stage of development.
the development in the field has been targeted towards less complex applications in the corporate sector (e g. exploitation of raw materials.
ART11.pdf
In addition, extensive network analyses were conducted to support the identification of possible collaboration networks and the development of joint calls for proposals.
, 1, 2), in the recognition that the engagement of stakeholders from several countries may help anticipate scientific, technological and societal developments, for example.
Particular attention is given to the development of a foresight design that responds to scalability requirements (e g.,
for the purpose of supporting mutual learning, opening-up of national innovation systems and the development of new collaborative forms of European RTD funding.
it can also contribute to the development of complementary value networks based on different technological competencies 3. Broadly seen,
networking and priority setting in the development of a shared research agenda for an international research program. 3. Shaping of research agendas in Woodwisdom-Net Woodwisdom-Net4 was started in 2004 as one of the ERA NETS supported by European union.
Drawing upon experiences from earlier collaboration with the Systems analysis Laboratory at Helsinki University of Technology in the development of a Scandinavian co-funded Wood Material Science Research program 16, the project plan for the Woodwisdom
The engagement of RTD stakeholders from all the countries was a prerequisite for identifying research issues that reflected relevant scientific and technological developments, on one hand,
to form working groups of funding organizations who would collaborate towards the development of calls for proposals covering those research sub-areas that they were interested in funding.
Amajor goal of this workshop was proceed to towards the development of calls for proposals. The agenda of the workshops consisted of three parts.
we have discussed the use of decision support methodologies in the development of a shared research agenda inwoodwisdom-Net, an ERA NET on wood material research that is an example of the coordination tools for EU innovation policies.
followed by the development of higher level priorities through negotiations among the representatives of member states.
The promising experiences from thewoodwisdom-Net consultation process, together with those from related processes for the Forest-Based Sector Technology platform 3, suggest that further work on the development of consultation processes within European coordination
Res. in press. 19 M.,Lindstedt, J.,Liesiö, A.,Salo, Participatory development of a strategic product portfolio in a telecommunication company, Inter.
ART12.pdf
reflects interrellate developments emerging over the past few years 4. First, within a framework of tighter governmental budgets and stronger international competition,
which is part of the progressive development of regulatory policies, complementing ex ante evaluations 4. Ex post impact assessments are able to evaluate the efficacy
even if the standardisation processes are moderated only by the formal standardisation development organisations (SDOS) and not funded
also in order to foster the development of new markets by Blind et al. 8. Besides the tradition in regulatory impact assessment,
Although these approaches largely failed, due to the inbuilt simplification of the actual dynamics of social, economic and technological developments, some studies nevertheless provoked a lively discussion about the future 14
but the main purpose is the reshaping of existing public research and development programmes or launching completely new programmes.
or re-regulations, including formal standards released by standards development organisations not only in existing, but also emerging technologies, sectors or markets in order to shape pro-actively innovation-promoting regulatory framework conditions,
indicator-based approaches surveys Delphi studies. 3. Methodologies 3. 1. Indicator-based approaches 3. 1. 1. Introduction and definition New developments in science and technology
whereas the latter covers the performance in applied research and development. One rather new indicator 21 are released technical standards by formal standardisation bodies.
Furthermore, not all new developments in science and technology, but especially those with possible impacts on health, safety, the environment and on the functioning of markets require an adjustment of the regulatory framework.
and experimental development. 506 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Summarising the results of the survey and relating them to the conceptual framework,
since they require the development of a questionnaire, the performance of a survey either via traditional postal mail or via online survey, the collection and cleaning of the data and finally, the analysis of the data.
Regulation was included in a set of possible obstacles, like lack of capital or human resources, for the development of science and technology.
and business developments taken from the Seventh Japanese Technology foresight Report 48, already published in 2001, with regard to their expected time of realisation, their importance, the effectiveness of policy measures, like R&d support,
and standardisation within formal standards development organisations for the implementation of these visions. Table 2 presents the assessment of the 21 telecommunication-related technologies expected to diffuse mostly within the next ten years.
2010 3. 31 3. 70 2. 67 2. 50 3. 83 Development of an optical transmission system capable of high-volume transmission of 1
and maintenance) uniformly among related companies. 2009 3. 33 3. 14 2. 39 2. 29 3. 54 Development of a super high-speed computer communication protocol capable
38 3. 19 Development of technology capable of automatically detecting viruses and automatically producing corresponding vaccines. 2010 4. 69 4. 03 2. 87 2. 47 3
The application of the Delphi method to the issue of regulations and standards requires the development of questionnaires,
For the development of scenarios on the future role of regulation, information about the various regulatory options has to be collected.
since the need for the development of new or the adoption of existing regulatory instruments can only be assessed
Significant adjustments and further developments have to be made in order to achieve an adequate methodological base which allows the performance of regulatory foresights producing valid,
but requires further development and fine-tuning. References 1 OECD, Regulatory Reform in the United states, OECD, Paris, 1999.2 OECD, Regulatory Impact analysis:
, Elgar, Cheltenham, 1998.25 K. Blind, Driving forces for standardization in standards development organizations, Appl. Econ. 34 (16)( 2002) 1985 1998.26 R. Bekkers, G. Duysters, B. Verspagen, Intellectual property rights, strategic technology agreements and market structure the case of GSM
ART13.pdf
In exploration and early exploitation of new developments assessment tools (market forecasts; knowledge of the technology and market drivers) are generally uncertain 9, 21,22.
In the paper we report on the (ongoing) development and application of the‘multi-path mapping'(MPM) toolset.
when different firms share particular search and development routines, these routines add up to a technological regime.
In the DC-3 case engineers were singled out as the drivers of the development. In other situations, it may be a continuing product-use combination (cf. the recent trajectory of mobile telephony),
Predictions and projections of all sorts can be made (as in roadmaps) outlining the future path of socio-technical development.
For the field of lab-on-a-chip there is a general agreement of four consecutive phases of technological development (see Fig. 1). Currently most developments still remain in phase 2. 15 http://www. ornl. gov/sci
T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The central bubble describes the further technical development of an experimental integration of elements into a working lab-on-a-chip device
(transition from phase 2 to phase 3). This development is the largest stumbling block over the past years (as described in the history above)
relegating developments of Loc to remaining in phase 2. The final large bubble represents the evolution of an integrated platform to a product application.
Cell-on-a-chip development is at a very early stage; much of the discussion of cell-on-a-chip development remains at the level of projections and claims.
For Frontiers, the abilities to map possible emerging socio-technical paths and use them to direct the portfolio of research lines within the network would be attractive (management issue 1 see Section 1). In addition,
This part of the project was to develop a tool to be able to gauge the ongoing developments articulated related to the possibility of cell-on-a-chip devices.
Looking at specifics of innovation chains addresses the management challenge 2, development and maintenance of science-toinduustr links through stimulation of innovation chains.
For the purpose of aiding development to strategic research area setting within Frontiers, this map (and any future evolution) is
a large multinational pharmaceutical company initiated the development of a prototype integrated device for chemical analysis with a number of start-up companies 17 For some more information on this and other elements of the Frontier FTA programme,
www. technology assessment. eu. 530 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 but then proceeded to outsource the further development of product
Another obstacle came from the MNC perspective based on the risk of outsourcing the development of an integrated platform to SMES:
difficult to see how each member as well as the collective could capitalise on the developments. The degree of complexity of an integrated lab-on-a-chip platform would mean a clear application driver for the SME-consortium or the Fig. 4. 1) MNC (dark grey) in-house;(
a French MEMS business development consultancy. 20 There are attempts in The netherlands for innovation chain 3 building off micro
A major point was distributed IP for development of an integrated platform, the agreement being that new models need to be sought.
Its methodological development and shaping owes its robustness to both a study of the relevant literature and interaction with practitioners.
The project to which the tool development was linked was characterised by interactions with practitioners around forward-looking discussions.
For a company or specific project leader, the path analysis is with respect to developments in research, the business environment, possible users, as well as regulation.
because the conceptual development and refinement of the MPMS was linked up with an interactive workshop. The workshop participants accepted our diagnosis given in MPM-1 and scenarios as well as the MPM-2 tool as relevant.
Further developments of MPM-2 will be included in the following evolutions of the roadmap, however monitoring the affect
and further developments of the MPM-1 approach is an ongoing task. A very concrete impact on strategy articulation comes from one of the participants
. Stenger, Development and application of cell-based biosensors, Ann. Biomed. Eng. 27 (1999) 697 711.63 C. Wood, C. Williams
He worked in South africa on the dynamics of social development projects and science-and-technology-in-society issues and at Twente University,
ART14.pdf
Steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'Effie Amanatidou a,,
In parallel, given that developments in the above spheres are associated strongly with the evolution of‘participatory knowledge societies',this paper presents an interpretation of foresight process impacts within a conceptual framework that attempts to characterise such societies.
Additionally, such an interpretation is conceived as a step towards the development of a conceptual framework aimed at understanding the dynamics of‘foresight systems'.
which they promote the development of'participatory knowledge societies'.'The paper is based primarily on research carried out during the preparation of a Phd thesis entitled Assessing the contribution of Foresight to a more participatory knowledge society.
and levels of implementattion aswell as facilitating the benchmarking and coordination of policies for socioeconomic development.
and factors affecting the development of these societies are intertwined with those influencing the development of participatory governance systems:
while foresight impacts seem to relate to both sets of developments. The major elements reported in the literature can be grouped under three broad categories:
and complexity of the ways information and knowledge is mediated, especially through developments in information and communication technologies, the increasing importance of knowledge-based industries and the service sector,
which these developments are facilitated and exploited are qualitative elements such as creativity and knowledge creation, knowledge diffusion and absorption,
These factors seem to be interlinked with each other in a cycle reinforcing their development. They are considered important prerequisites for knowledge-based economic growth
Certain developments have led to undesired effects and to a decreasing trust in science, scientists and decision-makers.
'at the same time it is promoted by a‘knowledge society'via support for the development of more informed publics.
The conditions enhancing the development of each of these three broad groups of elements are shown by the second inner circles,
(or weakening) of the conditions enhancing the development of a more participatory‘knowledge society'.'The identification of such areas was the subject of the second part of 5 This conceptual framework will be validated via interviews with experts in relevant fields. 6 For an analysis of the major findings of the literature review,
since it deals with uncertainty by requiring the development of alternative Fig. 1. Conceptual framework for the emerging‘knowledge societies':
It can thus enhance the development of social capital. Furthermore foresight can help break down some of the barriers between science
and society both crucial developments if the emerging knowledge societies are to cope with social, environmental and intellectual complexity.
Foresight can thus nurture the development of multidiscipllinarit in research as well facilitate the creation of informed publics.
The alignment of actors'interests, their active participation in dealing with uncertainty, the development of informed publics and, through all of these, to the evolution of strategies to cope with
Increasing creativity, knowledge diffusion and absorption Facilitate thinking out of the box Development of new ways of thinking Challenge mindsets Creating a language
which these processes are embedded (including the state of development of extant‘knowledge societies').'The focus thus shifts from what happens within a foresight system (Fig. 3a) to a new focus on the way a foresight system affects,
'It can also guide the development of an impact assessment framework. If the system variables turn out to be highly contextual,
Intermediate impacts included the development of visions of the future; recommendations and options for action;
As in the private sector, networks involving public administrations are constituted primarily for the purposes of learning, the development of expertise and the exploitation of complementary resources and know-how.
and factors affecting the development of these societies are intertwined with those influencing the development of participatory governance systems:
while foresight impacts seem to relate to both sets of developments. The examination of foresight process impacts within a conceptual framework characterising participatory‘knowledge societies'provides indications that foresight can contribute to the emergence of such societies in terms of:
The alignment of actors'interests, their active participation in dealing with uncertainty, the development of informed publics and, through all of these, to the evolution of strategies to cope with
The development of a common impact assessment model requires a clear understanding of the way foresight influences specific impact areas.
This model can then direct the development of a common impact assessment framework based on the‘logic model'approach.
and a series of interviews with foresight specialists to complete the development of the model describing the dynamics of foresight exercises in different contexts.
ART15.pdf
and student‘consumerrism'technological development (offering new opportunities, and in the meantime putting extra burdens on the already tight budgets of universities);
plus experimental development is not providing any meaningful guidance for devising policies, and can be even seriously misleading.
A carefully balanced development strategy of the EU, keeping the‘welfare'elements, too, at an EU level
advanced member states. c Laggard EU C) The EU development strategy is incapable of harmonising the requirements of competitiveness and cohesion;
but an even quicker development of the other Triad regions). In other words, we can regard the former case an‘absolute'failure,
and when it is‘destructive'by hampering development and/or leading to waste of public resources. 573 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 all five of them are equally relevant from a policy strategy) point of view.
and hence their contribution to socioeconomic development, major stakeholders need to be involved when strategic decisions are to be made on universities.
Proposed Standard practice for Surveys on Research and Experimental development, OECD, Paris, 2002.25 D. E. Stokes, Pasteur's Quadrant:
ART16.pdf
thus following the example of the first special issue from the previous edition of the Conference 2. This issue offers the reader a unique opportunity to travel with the editors on a journey of discovery where new approaches to the development of policies for advancing societal
innovation policy development and others inclined toward the provocation of innovation an opportunity to learn some new approaches as well as to reflect further upon some familiar tools such as risk assessment being profiled re within the new context of FTA.
if this technique can be developed more widely conjures up exciting possibilities for the anticipation of future innovation system developments.
We the editors believe this is a positive development as it signifies the potential of opening up a fruitful dialogue between the relatively young
An application to prospecting futures of the responsible development of nanotechnology, a research project exploring potential co-evolutions of nanotechnology and governance arrangements.
ART17.pdf
Fundamental uncertainty surrounds the exploitation and development of new technologies. Much has been made about the convergence of new technologies, particularly in the information,
The actual economic and institutional arrangements necessary to create flexible and distributed networks may have been captured in the regional development literature 13.
%There are also a host of anticipated Javascript developments involving style sheets, and the use and conversion of XML documents with standard web pages (HTML).
Some additional research into the first item reveals that there are indeed developments here: the World wide web consortium has developed recently standards for accessible rich Internet applications,
This new standard for rich Internet applications was incorporated in a recent beta version of Internet explorer 8. 5. Policy impacts These developments in ARIA are less than a year old at the time this paper was written the W3c posted a working draft
Wikipedia documentation of these developments is under 3 months old 28. The current Wikipedia Accessible Rich Internet applications page is only a stub without the detailed hyperlinks typical of awikipedia page.
Style sheet (Web Development) 70.0%15 Javascript 13 Internet Bookmark 69.0%15 Javascript 29 Search engines 64.7%40 XMLHTTPREQUEST 38 XHTML 57.8
recognizing the development of new technological linkages shortly after they actually occurred in the market.
A full analysis of this kind may require a longitudinal analysis of network development. Hierarchical models might be built before and after critical time periods,
and therefore the link prediction may have presaged actually technical developments. Earlier in the paper there was an important conditional:
ART18.pdf
like the predictability of the socioeconnomi development of the supplied region 1, the predetermination of the technical option,
and integrate them into the formulation of a long term management strategy for infrastructure development. We will present empirical evidence to support our claims from the experiences of implementing the RIF method in The swiss sanitation sector.
Socio-technical regimes create advantages for system development as they tend to reduce the costs of knowledge generation and the political costs of decision making 13.
and are of key relevance for economic development, human wellbeing and locational advantage for industry and citizens of a specific region.
regions, sectors and companies mainly by focusing on perspectives associated with new technology development. Furthermore, its standard case of application has been to direct
These explorative external scenarios 23 typically span a wide range of possible developments of context factors that are beyond the control of the relevant actors.
1) opening critical context developments,(2) broadening the range of analyzed system alternatives,(3) using sustainability criteria
In particular, we expect that this approach enables decision makers to systematically ponder a broader spectrum of system alternatives (especially those including development options outside the dominant socio-technical regime),
context factors like economic, demographic and settlement development, future political culture and environmental regulations. They select the most influencing
The participants select three to four scenario cores from the analysis of regional and regulatory developments.
The regional development association of the Kiesental, which already initiated a valley-wide water supply and also a flood protection organization, took on the task of organizing a working group
The core team encompassed two representatives from the regional development association, one from each of the regional sanitation associations, plus one representative from the regulatory body of the cantonal water protection agency.
thus be included into the elaboration of detailed recommendations in the next step. 4. 5. Utilization implications for infrastructure development The performance characteristics of the different options
These suggestions were presented finally to the regional development association, which then elaborated a long term strategy towards a merger.
development of context conditions or changes in interests. One consequence was departed that decision makers from their initially strong position that only one big technical system was able to solve all future problems in the region.
This enabled the process of explicitly mapping key trade-offs among different strategic options with regard to potential conflicts of interest, surprises in the development of context conditions and potential sustainability deficits.
A potential benefit of such an approach would be that regional development strategies could be tackled in a more encompassing way.
Thus, regional development could be more intimately related to infrastructure planning in general. 1160 E. Störmer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Acknowledgements The project Regional infrastructure foresight was funded by The swiss National science Foundation within the National research Program 54 Sustainable development of the Built Environment.
, J. Hertin, Foresight futures scenarios, Developing and Applying a Participative Strategic planning Tool, Greener Management International (37 Special issue on Foresighting for Development), 2002, pp. 37 52.27 G
F. Scapolo, A l. Porter, New methodolgical developments in FTA, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barré (Eds.
the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007 2020, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 75 (8)( 2008) 1279 1302.50 P. A. Steenhof, B c. Mcinnis,
analysis. Power tools series, International Institute for Environment and Development, London, 2005.62 E. Störmer, Greening as strategic development in industrial change why companies participate in eco-networks, Geoforum 39 (1)( 2008) 32 47.63 J. Gausemeier,
A. Fink, O. Schlake, Scenario management: an approach to develop future potentials, Technol. Forecast. Soc.
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