Synopsis:
Development: Development:
ART1.pdf
These approaches offered further refinement and support to the development of robustness in spite of added complexities in implementation.
The discussion also addressed the wider issues of the broadening perspectives that are being introduced to future work beyond technology and its development.
There was a concern expressed that the existing guides to methodologies had moved not forward to encompass these developments.
Trends were appearing in terms of focus of countries at different stages of economic development with those countries with lower development levels favouring a socioeconomic focus while those with higher levels of economic development lean towards a techno-economic focus.
and constraining the development of emerging technologies, failing to use available techniques to encourage culture change in stakeholder organisations
the authors of the papers suggest a number of developments such as a more systematic integration of new technology (especially ICT) to allow interaction
Other developments deal with reducing the domain of unknowable that play an important role when dealing with the future
stress the pressure that new technology developments are posing to the field of TA. Therefore, in order to continue to be effective,
They stimulate the development of new insights on simulation methods and evolutionary programming. The paper shows that concepts applied to biological evolution are applicable, through useful metaphors, to economics and technology assessment.
ART10.pdf
a development that in conjunction with the new possibilities offered by information and communication technologies has given rise to an internationalisation of research and innovation.
Making choices about the directions of new emerging technological options is very difficult in the early stages of development
K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 tendances lourdes can be identified like the development of electricity and propulsion technologies starting in the late 19th century and information
which external developments (such as the strategies of other actors but also exogenous developments) can vary. And it is enhanced by coherent actions of a range of key decisionmakker in research policy, economy and society.
or the audience and the purpose addressed. 2 Common to many foresight exercises is the development of either different scenarios,
one can observe similar developments in technology assessment where the growing prominence of social, economic, environmental and ethical concerns related to scientific and technological developments has led to a strengthening of participatory and constructive approaches 8, 9. Here,
in order to contribute to a normative debate on desirable future development paths. Finally, we can today see a strong emphasis on
but in particular also decisionmakker from research, industry, policy-making and society, a shared understanding of current problems, goals and development options is expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.
one is led to an approach that first tries carefully to map available decision options as well as possible future developments.
if adopted, can be expected to work reasonably well across the whole identified span of possible future developments.
e g. when considering the development of a highly integrated production facility like a steel plant,
These projects focused on strategy and programme development in research, technology and innovation policy, and stressed the interdependenciie with other policy areas and other innovation actors.
goals and an strategies at different levels to actual developments in reality. Also this is an immediate consequence of and an input into adaptive planning.
i e. of recent and current developments along the lines of the perspective on complex innovation processes.
specification of exploratory framework scenarios In either of the cases at the end of Phase 2, the scenario ideas need much additional development.
In other words, AF should be interpreted as part of a broader continuous learning process that comprises the implementation and evaluation of specific policy measures as well as a monitoring of relevant developments in policy at large.
Especially the individualised phases 8 and 9 as well as the implementation phase 10 represent emergent developments,
However, Adaptive foresight is still at an early stage of development and testing. Further development of the approach is needed particularly in the following three respects:
In a globalised and interdependent economy, not even the largest countries are in a position to fully dominate technoloogica development,
but need to be prepared to respond to unexpected developments. The notion of adaptivity seems also very relevant from the perspective of developing countries that strongly depend on foreign markets and technologies.
So far, thinking in terms of real options in the context of foresight is still in an early stage of development.
the development in the field has been targeted towards less complex applications in the corporate sector (e g. exploitation of raw materials.
ART11.pdf
In addition, extensive network analyses were conducted to support the identification of possible collaboration networks and the development of joint calls for proposals.
Particular attention is given to the development of a foresight design that responds to scalability requirements (e g.,
for the purpose of supporting mutual learning, opening-up of national innovation systems and the development of new collaborative forms of European RTD funding.
it can also contribute to the development of complementary value networks based on different technological competencies 3. Broadly seen,
networking and priority setting in the development of a shared research agenda for an international research program. 3. Shaping of research agendas in Woodwisdom-Net Woodwisdom-Net4 was started in 2004 as one of the ERA NETS supported by European union.
Drawing upon experiences from earlier collaboration with the Systems analysis Laboratory at Helsinki University of Technology in the development of a Scandinavian co-funded Wood Material Science Research program 16, the project plan for the Woodwisdom
to form working groups of funding organizations who would collaborate towards the development of calls for proposals covering those research sub-areas that they were interested in funding.
Amajor goal of this workshop was proceed to towards the development of calls for proposals. The agenda of the workshops consisted of three parts.
we have discussed the use of decision support methodologies in the development of a shared research agenda inwoodwisdom-Net, an ERA NET on wood material research that is an example of the coordination tools for EU innovation policies.
followed by the development of higher level priorities through negotiations among the representatives of member states.
The promising experiences from thewoodwisdom-Net consultation process, together with those from related processes for the Forest-Based Sector Technology platform 3, suggest that further work on the development of consultation processes within European coordination
Res. in press. 19 M.,Lindstedt, J.,Liesiö, A.,Salo, Participatory development of a strategic product portfolio in a telecommunication company, Inter.
ART12.pdf
reflects interrellate developments emerging over the past few years 4. First, within a framework of tighter governmental budgets and stronger international competition,
which is part of the progressive development of regulatory policies, complementing ex ante evaluations 4. Ex post impact assessments are able to evaluate the efficacy
even if the standardisation processes are moderated only by the formal standardisation development organisations (SDOS) and not funded
also in order to foster the development of new markets by Blind et al. 8. Besides the tradition in regulatory impact assessment,
but the main purpose is the reshaping of existing public research and development programmes or launching completely new programmes.
or re-regulations, including formal standards released by standards development organisations not only in existing, but also emerging technologies, sectors or markets in order to shape pro-actively innovation-promoting regulatory framework conditions,
whereas the latter covers the performance in applied research and development. One rather new indicator 21 are released technical standards by formal standardisation bodies.
since they require the development of a questionnaire, the performance of a survey either via traditional postal mail or via online survey, the collection and cleaning of the data and finally, the analysis of the data.
Regulation was included in a set of possible obstacles, like lack of capital or human resources, for the development of science and technology.
and business developments taken from the Seventh Japanese Technology foresight Report 48, already published in 2001, with regard to their expected time of realisation, their importance, the effectiveness of policy measures, like R&d support,
and standardisation within formal standards development organisations for the implementation of these visions. Table 2 presents the assessment of the 21 telecommunication-related technologies expected to diffuse mostly within the next ten years.
2010 3. 31 3. 70 2. 67 2. 50 3. 83 Development of an optical transmission system capable of high-volume transmission of 1
and maintenance) uniformly among related companies. 2009 3. 33 3. 14 2. 39 2. 29 3. 54 Development of a super high-speed computer communication protocol capable
38 3. 19 Development of technology capable of automatically detecting viruses and automatically producing corresponding vaccines. 2010 4. 69 4. 03 2. 87 2. 47 3
The application of the Delphi method to the issue of regulations and standards requires the development of questionnaires,
For the development of scenarios on the future role of regulation, information about the various regulatory options has to be collected.
since the need for the development of new or the adoption of existing regulatory instruments can only be assessed
, Elgar, Cheltenham, 1998.25 K. Blind, Driving forces for standardization in standards development organizations, Appl. Econ. 34 (16)( 2002) 1985 1998.26 R. Bekkers, G. Duysters, B. Verspagen, Intellectual property rights, strategic technology agreements and market structure the case of GSM
ART13.pdf
In the paper we report on the (ongoing) development and application of the‘multi-path mapping'(MPM) toolset.
when different firms share particular search and development routines, these routines add up to a technological regime.
In the DC-3 case engineers were singled out as the drivers of the development. In other situations, it may be a continuing product-use combination (cf. the recent trajectory of mobile telephony),
For the field of lab-on-a-chip there is a general agreement of four consecutive phases of technological development (see Fig. 1). Currently most developments still remain in phase 2. 15 http://www. ornl. gov/sci
(transition from phase 2 to phase 3). This development is the largest stumbling block over the past years (as described in the history above)
relegating developments of Loc to remaining in phase 2. The final large bubble represents the evolution of an integrated platform to a product application.
Cell-on-a-chip development is at a very early stage; much of the discussion of cell-on-a-chip development remains at the level of projections and claims.
For Frontiers, the abilities to map possible emerging socio-technical paths and use them to direct the portfolio of research lines within the network would be attractive (management issue 1 see Section 1). In addition,
This part of the project was to develop a tool to be able to gauge the ongoing developments articulated related to the possibility of cell-on-a-chip devices.
Looking at specifics of innovation chains addresses the management challenge 2, development and maintenance of science-toinduustr links through stimulation of innovation chains.
For the purpose of aiding development to strategic research area setting within Frontiers, this map (and any future evolution) is
a large multinational pharmaceutical company initiated the development of a prototype integrated device for chemical analysis with a number of start-up companies 17 For some more information on this and other elements of the Frontier FTA programme,
Another obstacle came from the MNC perspective based on the risk of outsourcing the development of an integrated platform to SMES:
difficult to see how each member as well as the collective could capitalise on the developments. The degree of complexity of an integrated lab-on-a-chip platform would mean a clear application driver for the SME-consortium or the Fig. 4. 1) MNC (dark grey) in-house;(
a French MEMS business development consultancy. 20 There are attempts in The netherlands for innovation chain 3 building off micro
A major point was distributed IP for development of an integrated platform, the agreement being that new models need to be sought.
The project to which the tool development was linked was characterised by interactions with practitioners around forward-looking discussions.
For a company or specific project leader, the path analysis is with respect to developments in research, the business environment, possible users, as well as regulation.
Stenger, Development and application of cell-based biosensors, Ann. Biomed. Eng. 27 (1999) 697 711.63 C. Wood, C. Williams
ART14.pdf
Steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'Effie Amanatidou a,,
In parallel, given that developments in the above spheres are associated strongly with the evolution of‘participatory knowledge societies',this paper presents an interpretation of foresight process impacts within a conceptual framework that attempts to characterise such societies.
Additionally, such an interpretation is conceived as a step towards the development of a conceptual framework aimed at understanding the dynamics of‘foresight systems'.
which they promote the development of'participatory knowledge societies'.'The paper is based primarily on research carried out during the preparation of a Phd thesis entitled Assessing the contribution of Foresight to a more participatory knowledge society.
and levels of implementattion aswell as facilitating the benchmarking and coordination of policies for socioeconomic development.
and factors affecting the development of these societies are intertwined with those influencing the development of participatory governance systems:
while foresight impacts seem to relate to both sets of developments. The major elements reported in the literature can be grouped under three broad categories:
and complexity of the ways information and knowledge is mediated, especially through developments in information and communication technologies, the increasing importance of knowledge-based industries and the service sector,
which these developments are facilitated and exploited are qualitative elements such as creativity and knowledge creation, knowledge diffusion and absorption,
These factors seem to be interlinked with each other in a cycle reinforcing their development. They are considered important prerequisites for knowledge-based economic growth
Certain developments have led to undesired effects and to a decreasing trust in science, scientists and decision-makers.
'at the same time it is promoted by a‘knowledge society'via support for the development of more informed publics.
The conditions enhancing the development of each of these three broad groups of elements are shown by the second inner circles,
(or weakening) of the conditions enhancing the development of a more participatory‘knowledge society'.'The identification of such areas was the subject of the second part of 5 This conceptual framework will be validated via interviews with experts in relevant fields. 6 For an analysis of the major findings of the literature review,
since it deals with uncertainty by requiring the development of alternative Fig. 1. Conceptual framework for the emerging‘knowledge societies':
It can thus enhance the development of social capital. Furthermore foresight can help break down some of the barriers between science
and society both crucial developments if the emerging knowledge societies are to cope with social, environmental and intellectual complexity.
Foresight can thus nurture the development of multidiscipllinarit in research as well facilitate the creation of informed publics.
The alignment of actors'interests, their active participation in dealing with uncertainty, the development of informed publics and, through all of these, to the evolution of strategies to cope with
Increasing creativity, knowledge diffusion and absorption Facilitate thinking out of the box Development of new ways of thinking Challenge mindsets Creating a language
which these processes are embedded (including the state of development of extant‘knowledge societies').'The focus thus shifts from what happens within a foresight system (Fig. 3a) to a new focus on the way a foresight system affects,
'It can also guide the development of an impact assessment framework. If the system variables turn out to be highly contextual,
Intermediate impacts included the development of visions of the future; recommendations and options for action;
As in the private sector, networks involving public administrations are constituted primarily for the purposes of learning, the development of expertise and the exploitation of complementary resources and know-how.
and factors affecting the development of these societies are intertwined with those influencing the development of participatory governance systems:
while foresight impacts seem to relate to both sets of developments. The examination of foresight process impacts within a conceptual framework characterising participatory‘knowledge societies'provides indications that foresight can contribute to the emergence of such societies in terms of:
The alignment of actors'interests, their active participation in dealing with uncertainty, the development of informed publics and, through all of these, to the evolution of strategies to cope with
The development of a common impact assessment model requires a clear understanding of the way foresight influences specific impact areas.
This model can then direct the development of a common impact assessment framework based on the‘logic model'approach.
and a series of interviews with foresight specialists to complete the development of the model describing the dynamics of foresight exercises in different contexts.
ART15.pdf
but an even quicker development of the other Triad regions). In other words, we can regard the former case an‘absolute'failure,
and when it is‘destructive'by hampering development and/or leading to waste of public resources. 573 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 all five of them are equally relevant from a policy strategy) point of view.
and hence their contribution to socioeconomic development, major stakeholders need to be involved when strategic decisions are to be made on universities.
ART16.pdf
thus following the example of the first special issue from the previous edition of the Conference 2. This issue offers the reader a unique opportunity to travel with the editors on a journey of discovery where new approaches to the development of policies for advancing societal
innovation policy development and others inclined toward the provocation of innovation an opportunity to learn some new approaches as well as to reflect further upon some familiar tools such as risk assessment being profiled re within the new context of FTA.
if this technique can be developed more widely conjures up exciting possibilities for the anticipation of future innovation system developments.
We the editors believe this is a positive development as it signifies the potential of opening up a fruitful dialogue between the relatively young
An application to prospecting futures of the responsible development of nanotechnology, a research project exploring potential co-evolutions of nanotechnology and governance arrangements.
ART17.pdf
Fundamental uncertainty surrounds the exploitation and development of new technologies. Much has been made about the convergence of new technologies, particularly in the information,
%There are also a host of anticipated Javascript developments involving style sheets, and the use and conversion of XML documents with standard web pages (HTML).
Some additional research into the first item reveals that there are indeed developments here: the World wide web consortium has developed recently standards for accessible rich Internet applications,
This new standard for rich Internet applications was incorporated in a recent beta version of Internet explorer 8. 5. Policy impacts These developments in ARIA are less than a year old at the time this paper was written the W3c posted a working draft
Wikipedia documentation of these developments is under 3 months old 28. The current Wikipedia Accessible Rich Internet applications page is only a stub without the detailed hyperlinks typical of awikipedia page.
Style sheet (Web Development) 70.0%15 Javascript 13 Internet Bookmark 69.0%15 Javascript 29 Search engines 64.7%40 XMLHTTPREQUEST 38 XHTML 57.8
recognizing the development of new technological linkages shortly after they actually occurred in the market.
A full analysis of this kind may require a longitudinal analysis of network development. Hierarchical models might be built before and after critical time periods,
ART18.pdf
like the predictability of the socioeconnomi development of the supplied region 1, the predetermination of the technical option,
and integrate them into the formulation of a long term management strategy for infrastructure development. We will present empirical evidence to support our claims from the experiences of implementing the RIF method in The swiss sanitation sector.
Socio-technical regimes create advantages for system development as they tend to reduce the costs of knowledge generation and the political costs of decision making 13.
regions, sectors and companies mainly by focusing on perspectives associated with new technology development. Furthermore, its standard case of application has been to direct
These explorative external scenarios 23 typically span a wide range of possible developments of context factors that are beyond the control of the relevant actors.
1) opening critical context developments,(2) broadening the range of analyzed system alternatives,(3) using sustainability criteria
In particular, we expect that this approach enables decision makers to systematically ponder a broader spectrum of system alternatives (especially those including development options outside the dominant socio-technical regime),
context factors like economic, demographic and settlement development, future political culture and environmental regulations. They select the most influencing
The participants select three to four scenario cores from the analysis of regional and regulatory developments.
thus be included into the elaboration of detailed recommendations in the next step. 4. 5. Utilization implications for infrastructure development The performance characteristics of the different options
development of context conditions or changes in interests. One consequence was departed that decision makers from their initially strong position that only one big technical system was able to solve all future problems in the region.
This enabled the process of explicitly mapping key trade-offs among different strategic options with regard to potential conflicts of interest, surprises in the development of context conditions and potential sustainability deficits.
, J. Hertin, Foresight futures scenarios, Developing and Applying a Participative Strategic planning Tool, Greener Management International (37 Special issue on Foresighting for Development), 2002, pp. 37 52.27 G
F. Scapolo, A l. Porter, New methodolgical developments in FTA, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barré (Eds.
the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007 2020, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 75 (8)( 2008) 1279 1302.50 P. A. Steenhof, B c. Mcinnis,
analysis. Power tools series, International Institute for Environment and Development, London, 2005.62 E. Störmer, Greening as strategic development in industrial change why companies participate in eco-networks, Geoforum 39 (1)( 2008) 32 47.63 J. Gausemeier,
ART19.pdf
The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT.
Foresight exercises, in turn, usually identify the possible future developments, driving forces, emerging technologies, barriers, threats and opportunities related to a broader socio-techno-economic system.
Creating shared understandings among the stakeholders about the possible future developments is also important in each field;
whereas in foresight exercises the positive developments like innovation possibilities has Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Corresponding author.
On the other hand, the development of foresight and technology assessment methodologies is expected to benefit from the experiences of the industrial risk assessment tradition:
Development of an integrated approach that combines the strengths of FTA and risk assessment traditions is not,
development of proactive risk assessment methodologies for different corporate risk management purposes (identiffyin the vulnerability of corporate and process actions, managing the risks in occupational, industrial and environmental safety, managing business risks, etc.),
In this way TA can also play a more significant role in pushing the development in a useful or wanted direction. 2. 2 Risk assessment methodologies in industrial safety As noted in the previous Section 2. 1,
Development of safety and risk analysis in the industrial context stems from nuclear industry, civil and military aviation,
see also 15) provided the impetus for the development of novel loss prevention actions. The use of risk analysis became a common practice to evaluate the safety of processing,
or foresighting, impact assessment (FIA) currently under development at VTT. In this methodology, the concept of risk iswidened to consider the risks in the innovation processesmay these be either intra-corporate R&dor highly distributed
and cover such areas as investment, communication, trust and general development risks. FIA thus steers the risk assessment to a more anticipatory and proactive direction.
and development challenges To study the integration of FTA and risk assessment some relevant projects were analysed.
Organisations have to consider alternative developments of influence factors gain network thinking and action. They need to focus on strategic thinking
and methods for companies in order to support the decision making related to introducing existing technologies into new markets, development of new technologies for existing markets,
The experiences of the method development in the INNORISK case companies have been positive. Dominating feature in all cases has been that the top management of the companies has been involved actively in the development processes.
One opportunity was selected for more thorough concept development including iterative steps of idea generation and enrichment,
as a result of the method development. 3 3. 3. Climate change adaptation and risk assessment (CES) A joint project concerning the climate change adaptation in Finland
The project aims at assessing the development of the Nordic electricity system for the next 20 30 years.
and holistic processes Foresight activities and methodologies may have benefits that will support the risk analysis methods and activities in the development towards a more holistic approach.
This development is needed especially to manage the new emerging risks, such as those that nanotechnologies, population aging,
as well as future expectations concerning their development, are compared summarised and. In general FTA APPROACH encourages to build new risk analysis techniques
To identify possible future developments, driving forces, emerging technologies, barriers, threats and opportunities related to a broader socio-technoeconnomi system.
expert workshops and interviews Development and future expectations of the approach New approaches like inherent safety and resilience engineering address the complex nature of industrial processes.
, T. Luoma, S. Toivonen, Managing uncertainty in the front end of radical innovation development, Proc. of IAMOT 2007 16th International Conference on Management of Technology, May 13 17,2007, Florida
Managing commercialisation risks in innovation development: linking front end and commercialisation. In: K. R. E. Huizingh, M. Torkkeli, S. Conn and I. Bitran (eds.
ART2.pdf
No matter the size of the model or the computer that runs it, some developments are beyond current discovery
ART20.pdf
Along with increasing significance of innovation in socioeconomic development grows the need to utilize future-oriented knowledge in innovation policy-making.
Technology barometerwas developed in order tomeasure the scientific technological and socioeconomic state and development level of the nation and formaking related comparative analysis to other nations.
Fromthe start TEK included in the barometer both a comparative study of reference countries, based on indicators of past development,
and accordingly future-oriented knowledge shall be interlinked properly to the past development path. In technology barometer this challenge is solved by dividing the exercise first into a comparison of the performance of the Finnish innovation system with selected nations on a basis of available international indicators
and identifies possible areas for development activities in national innovation policy in the future. Both parts are structured in a similar way enabling the linking of ex-post and ex-ante analyses mutually
At the same time, it also indicates how effectively the development in question complies with the principles of sustainable development.
indicating how effectively the development in question complies with the principles of sustainable development. The indicators of societies fulfilling the requirements of sustainable development are social values, environmental responsibility and environmental systems.
The development of an appropriate content, scope and structure of the technology barometer, as described above, involved a series of expert panels of the TEK, VTT and innovation policy experts.
Developments which have taken already place are depicted in one element based on statistical data. The indicator-based data can be used for the generation of index figures to display the nations'techno-scientific base and level of societal development in comparison with the reference group.
Together these analyses give an all-inclusive understanding of the present state and future perspectives of techno-scientific development of the nation.
and Sweden excel (Fig. 2). This is partly explained by vigorous investments in the development of intellectual capital.
Having reached its 3rd round of implementation it is now possible to see what type of development trends are currently in progress in addition to the key numbers of each individual study.
positive development was observed in entrepreneurship and openness to internationalism. 1180 T. Loikkanen et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 3. 2. Survey study of future visions In addition to indicator-based comparison the technology barometer instrument includes a survey about people's expectations regarding the future development trends.
competence and knowledge generation, knowledge society development, innovative society and sustainable development. The first part sets out the respondent groups'assessments concerning the techno-scientific competence prospects and young people's interest in a number of professions.
Identification of knowledge-based commercial ideas requires competence development, in basic technologies and business thinking alike,
This development naturally raises new research questions and needs new data and novel indicators to be included in the barometer.
In addition, structural development of Finnish universities towardsmoremanagement-oriented entities is underway. All these changes pose newchallenges to indicator
Development of comprehensive indicators is time-consuming requiring a fair amount of resources as well as a widespread contact network within the society.
With regard to the development of international comparisons the conclusions for the moment could be that at this stage it is important to let all flowers bloom in this field.
which is currently under the development at VTT. This approach seeks to combine evaluative ex-ante impact assessment
Index (A t. Kearny) Globalization Index (World Markets Research centre) Society Human Development Index (UN) Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International) Overall Health
3. 2. Knowledge society development 3. 2. 1. Investment in research and product development 3. 2. 2. Information and communication technologies ICT expenditure The use of information
. Young people's interest in certain professions 4. 3. Knowledge society development 4. 3. 1. Opinions regarding the standard of research and technical development in Finland 4. 3. 2
4. 4. Innovative society 4. 4. 1. Investments and entrepreneurial activeness 4. 4. 2. Potential effects of the development of technology on the quality of life 4. 5
development Knowledge society development Innovative society Sustainable development 1185 T. Loikkanen et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 References 1 M. Nardo, M. Saisana, A. Saltelli, S. Tarantola, A. Hoffman, E. Giovannini, Handbook
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