It took into account the developments at the national as well as the international level. As there is not one single methodology that can be used as in an input output model
latest developments in various technological-scientific subject areas were analysed, consolidated and processed in order to attain a reliable description of the international state-of-the-art.
As an input to the first workshop in November 2007, a first set of scientific papers describing the developments in the fields were written
7. Health research and medicine 8. Infrastructure technology, urbanisation and environmental development 9. Environmental protection technology and sustainable development 10.
new drivers like lifestyles or developments in society change the time and space patterns of living and working.
time is the limiting factor in different developments. Therefore, research on time efficiency, parallel structures, a new kind of precise and ultra-short time measuring as well as 4 D precision (for imaging etc.
Technologie (Federal Ministry for Research and Technology, BMFT (Ed.),Deutscher Delphi-Bericht zur Entwicklung von Wissenschaft und Technik (German Delphi Report on the Development
As a field of policy action it is characterized by a high degree of problem complexity and uncertainty about long-term future developments.
3. Policy measure development, i e. to check for the strengths and weaknesses of different problem-solving strategies, make a final selection
and plot them on two axes to structure the subsequent development of four diverging scenario stories.
another study suggests that standard scenario approaches tend to systematically exclude surprising or paradoxical developments as inconsistent or logical impossible.
setting out the range of strategic alternatives that were considered as part of the early development of the NPF,
A combination of skills development, capacity-building, undertaking evaluation more regularly, as well as making better use of existing knowledge
their development and use, Sub-report 2. 1b of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2. 1 by the U s. Climate change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Department of energy
lessons from regional projects, Development 47 (4)( 2004) 62 72.24 M. B. A. van Asselt, Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk:
Such processes will contribute to the development of more socially and environmentally responsive nano artifacts. 2009 Published by Elsevier Inc. Keywords:
as it lies at the heart of Foresight Environment of knowledge development: 7. Trust between organisers and all participants, even among those whose opinions may not be deemed to be‘influential'8. Establishment of a new balance between participants with special expertise
but have been modified here to be appropriate to the development of a metaphor for Inclusive foresight. There are some obvious linkages to behavioural matters.
Precaution Inclusiveness though not in the sense used in this paper Integrity Better and constant vigilance to assess developments
Such process will contribute to the development of more socially and environmentally responsive nano artifacts. Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank Denis Loveridge and Penny Street,
with the pleasures of external things, is necessary before the less visible attractions of inner development become attractive.
Creating, Using and Manipulating Scientific knowledge for Public policy, Edinburgh University Press, 1993.6 J. Stiles, Neural plasticity and cognitive development, Developmental Neuropsychology 18 (2)( 2000) 237 272.7 D
An application to prospecting futures of the responsible development of nanotechnology Douglas K. R. Robinson STEPS, University of Twente, Enschede, The netherlands a r t i c l e i n
At present, during its early stages, a wide variety of actors are anticipating both on the potential benefits and risks of the development of nanotechnologies and their embedment into markets and into society.
and develop appropriate governance strategies for nanotechnologies need to consider both thewide spectrumof nanotechnology research and development lines,
Co-evolutionary scenarios Selection environment Nanotechnology Responsible development Anticipatory coordination 1. Introduction The path to innovation is journey-like, certainly so for radical innovation.
In the field of nanotechnology these challenges are compounded further due to the early stage of nano developments
& Social Change 1. 1. Anticipatory coordination for the responsible development of nanotechnology These general challenges become very specific in the case of nanoscience and nanotechnology.
There is a call for anticipatory governance 1 often phrased as the need for responsible development of nanotechnology or responsible innovation in nanotechnology,
(or are in the process of being formed to shape possible new configurations of roles and responsibilities in the development of nanotechnology.
encompassing the notions of responsible development, responsible innovation and including the notion that this umbrella term covers research, product development and embedment.
or another with an emphasis on responsible up to and including halting developments along particular R&d
but that this landscape is shaped actively in response to anticipations on development and impact of the novelties.
and thus potentially breaking up existing orders to some extent, subsequent developments create new patterns that may lead to stable situations.
Ideas of responsible development of nanotechnology have been in circulation for a while now, but by the end of 2007 they were solidifying into policy and regulation.
For a detailed account of the developments of the nano risk debate and the key elements of RRI see van Amerom and Rip 35 and Kearnes and Rip 36.
and colleagues into a way of framing various ways of assessing technical novelty and its development.
Scenarios are used not anymore to extrapolate particular developments into the future but rather, to enhance the reflexivity of actors regarding strategic decisions
which can modulate these developments, and larger lock ins (irreversibilities) which constrain such actions and impact on unforeseen or sub-optimal trajectories of socio-technical developments.
or another with an emphasis on responsible up to and including halting developments along particular R&d lines.
This shows the status of the IC+game board at the time of the workshop and was the starting point for the development of realistically complex scenarios.
Ad hoc public engagement exercises act as a lubricant to continue nanotechnology developments across the board. However, one project in particular captures people's attention,
Rapid developments in nano means the consequent burgeoning number of delivery methods leads to increasingly bewildering regulatory protocols.
but confidentiality of development hampers transparency (issues of competition) and thus watchdogs find it difficult to access data to assess practices.
where researchers were anticipating that the EU responsible development code may affect funding..The codes are particularly enabling for medical devices,
Similar developments can be seen for crime scene investigation and civil security technologies, where advanced diagnostics,
and developments in nanotechnology for the paper sector Lock in as path enabling: other governments look on with envy at the focus of Finnish nanotechnology.
Other national governments look with envy at the rapidity of developments of the targeted nano programmes of Finland.
5. 1. 2009 2010 nano development boom The self-imposed standards for manufacture work as a minimum safety requirement,
but have little effect because of the lock in enabling technology development but constraining comparative selector input..Some issues of workers safety voiced but related to non-nano issues
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 aimed at temporary governance of developments are expected to reduce pressure on regulators so not supplanting regulation but inhibiting it all the same (regardless of good intentions).
Here they show that the patterns that were becoming stabilized by 2007 (identified through exploring endogenous futures) continue to shape development
(and used) for transition policy. 4 15 Used for open-ended roadmapping by technology developers at early stages of development 6. 16 Used for exploring industrial/sectorial alignment/misalignments. 17 See Haico
through methodology and application development and is about to be submitted at the time of publication of this article.
which was driven by the recognition that Finland is strongly dependent on global developments. The objective of encouraging other actors of the R&i system to initiate foresight activities has lead to many spinoof activities,
Research and innovation councils and programmes play a significant role in the development of science and are a central interface between politics and research.
Sociologists have noted this development, highlighting how modern knowledge production has changed from its classical form (Mode 1),
and industrial development, ending up in new products introduced on to the market. As a consequence of this, there is often focus on the opinions of so-called‘elite'scientists and industrialists,
and the development of generic technologies, become determined by generic market structure of global research and technology.
It is difficult to obtain comparable statistics for research council funding activities on the scale of the European union (EU) or countries of the Organisation for Economic cooperation and Development (OECD). In Denmark,
Through this, they contribute to change and the development of newdirections for research institutions and for the research community in general.
thus play a central role in some cases a key role in the broader strategies and developments of science and research systems.
The development of this plan was not a formal, structured process, but consisted of three main phases:(
1) Development of vision papers;(2) Definition of strategic areas; and (3) Elaboration of the communication format.
were asked to write papers about their vision of developments in their research areas, to be used as input to the strategy process.
The third phase in the development of the Strategy plan 2003 2007 was more important to the end product than was suggested by the term communication format.
the PR company and the authors of the vision papers only a few other persons were involved directly in the development of the Strategy plan 2003 2007.
The core group for the strategy development processes, apart from the programme-management staff in the Energy Authority, consisted of representatives from the planning and development departments of the two electricity grid operators.
However, the development of strategy between these programmes also implied that there was room for activities other than those defined in the strategy plan.
Inducement and blocking mechanisms in the development of a new industry: the case of renewable energy technology in Sweden.
These developments were followed up in 2003 by the establishment of the University of Luxembourg (UL.
Just as significant as all the developments set out in Box 1 is the establishment of the FNR.
the FNR serves as Luxembourg's national funding agency in supporting the development of research competences in topics of national interest Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 936 F. Glod et al. through multi
but will also steer them to conduct more leading-edge research in topic areas that are likely to be important for Luxembourg's future socioeconnomi development.
But in small countries, this is particularly difficult to achieve across the board as many S&t areas lack sufficient‘critical mass'to keep pace with all the latest developments.
In addition to the contribbutio a particular thematic area might make to scientific understanding, socioeconomic development, etc. a further important factor to bear in mind
To assist the development of outstanding centres of science and technology excellence in Luxembourg; To ensure the specialisation of public research centre facilities into centres with a limited number of specific areas of high level expertise;
National priorities National priorities (Research areas)( Research domains) Innovation in services Business service design and innovation Fostering the economic and legal environment for Innovation performance and development of the financial systems
uses and sources of energy Sustainable agro-systems management Spatial and urban development Identities, diversity and integration Identities, diversity and integration Labour market, educational requirements
This of course begs the question of what other instruments might support the wider development of this particular topic and of the domain priorities as a whole.
which will help to sustain the development in the domains identified. Furthermore some of the public research centres have conducted their own mini-foresight studies,
moreover, they often raised parallel structural developments when discussing thematic priorities in theirworking groups. Nevertheless, the exercise's compartmentalisation almost certainly weakened its potential to directly inform developments in other parts of the research system.
This is also related to the issue as to whether the exercise was intended to set FNR or national priorities.
owing to a lack of common vision among the various stakeholders on the position and contribution of S&t to Luxembourg's socioeconomic development. 7. 2. Setting the‘granularity'of priorities The priorities identified by the exercise were set at a level
first, the already-mentioned lack of vision of the role of S&t in Luxembourg's development meant that some of the criteria were used rather blindly.
and it relied solely on the exercise for the development of its new thematic programmes.
and their methodology had to be adapted to the degree of progress made up to that point. 8. Other elements included the review analysis by the OECD on Luxembourg's public research apparatus, the multiannnua development programmes of the public research centres and the University of Luxembourg,
Thus, a shared understanding of problems, goals and development options can be expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.
in order to keep pace with the international developments in science, technology and innovation, with new employment patterns and with the need to further upgrade research and innovation performance.
and analyses to underpin the development of an integrated, future-oriented urban research and innovation policy.
thus fostering the socioeconomic development of thevienna metropolitan area by giving those impulses a regional government can specifically provide.
4) Urban development for research. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 959 Panel 1 FTI in business Integrative concept for RTI-strategy Panel
In addition, the development of a number of new avenues of research and innovation is being promoted.
To underline the importance of participation in the vision-building project, the project leadership drew upon a specific image of young people as stakeholders in municipal development.
for example in the context of regional, national and transnational development programmes. Visioning as an activity,
such as in urban and municipal development. Theoretical background This paper is inspired by three research areas addressing foresight as a sociopolitical phenomenon around the millennial turn.
and desirable future outcomes of municipal development without defining these further. This pointed towards a relative flexibility of what was regarded as possible and desirable development.
Yet these three areas were situated already around one central dotted line which led straight to the desired future vision,
which the community council desires for the development of society. In order to obtain operative power the visions
but I am of the opinion that development in a municipality is suited not to especially deep reflection concerning all consequences...
4. In scenario planning a set of alternative scenarios are created to achieve an understanding of the range of possible future developments, more or less regardless of
) 6. Slaughter (2004,92 4) sees the development of Critical Future Studies (CFS) following the traditions of STS in‘challenging the inevitability
Development and perspectives of foresight in Germany. Technikfolgenabschätzung 12, no. 2: 20 8. Cuhls, K,
Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis. In Future-oriented technology analysis strategic intelligence for an innovative economy, ed. C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo,
imagineering sustainable urban development. Paper presented at second international Seville seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 28-29 september 2006, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain.
2. Might there be a suitable baussieq partner to work with us on this development?
deemed pertinent to deciding on their suitability as a development partner.!Ceramic Fuel cells'patenting trend (lower left) and patent citation tree (upper right) speak to the currency and importance of their intellectual property.!
Development of information visualizations especially for S&t offers great potential 12 13. To close, this bnewq method brings to bear available S&t information resources
Provide each researcher, development engineer, project manager, intellectual property analyst, etc. with direct, desktop access to a couple of most useful S&t information databases.!
took a decision in principle on the structural development of the public research system. This decision spurred the two main funding agencies theacademy of Finland
which served to inform albeit indirectly the development of the national strategy and the attendant implementation of several Strategic Centres of Excellence in Science and Technology.
when the Government took a decision in principle on the structural development of the public research system at large.
further to the recognittio that globalisation is a major determinant of the development of R&i systems.
and to facilitate the development of meaningful priorities at an appropriate level of aggregation. The following key concepts and templates were employed in Finnsight:
or a development that could contribute to the realisation of changes with significant implications for future R&i activities.
(what is the event or development about?)and separate analysis of its significance and impacts (why is this driving force relevant to R&i policy and R&i activities?.
for instance by way of innovations,(iv) through what measures the development of the focus area could be promoted best.
of which was to address driving forces that would set the stage for the development of focus areas each panellist was requested to propose through the internet three to five driving forces using the template.
(i e. how strong a basis do Finnish actors have in the development and applicatiion of knowledge pertaining this focus area of competence?)
because they could start the development of the panel reports from an extensive set of documentation,
3) The importance of cross-disciplinary synergies in the development of path-breaking innovattion suggested that explicit attention should be devoted to the opportunities offered by combinations of the focus areas that were deemed important by the different panels.
and focus areas of competences that it deemed central for the development of the R&i system.
and economic crisis of 2008 09) was driven by the recognition that Finland is strongly dependent on global developments, due to its relatively small size and the structure of its economy.
In consequence, the panel felt that it is pertinent develop competencies for the analysis of such developments in view of policy and decision making activities.
natural resources Development of bioproduction Measurement methods and diagnostics Management and modelling of biological knowledge 7. Information and communications Sensor technology applications Data mining, analysis, management and retrieval Bio-information technology 8. Understanding and human interaction Multicultural
d) Subsequent policy developments Because foresight is a highly systemic instrument with close linkages to other policy processes that contribute to the development of the R&i system,
Such developments often build on various processes of sense-making and negotiation that draw upon on foresight conclusions.
which contained numerous proposals towards the development of the Finnish research and innovation system (STPC 2006).
the results of Finnsight were published at an opportune moment for the development of the strategic research plans for these centres.
and 88%thought that Finnsight will be important to the development of the Finnish R&i system.
3) consensual vs dissensual development of recommendations; and (4) fixed vs autonomous management of the process. 4. 1. Instrumental vs informative use of foresight results In terms of alternative modes of harnessing foresight conclusions,
instrumental use of foresight refers to the development and deployment of results for specific and foreseen decision-making situations,
while informative use refers to the development of an improved shared understanding of the R&i system
For instance, Finnsight synthesised consensual information about overarchiin developments that were relevant to many organisations in the R&i system (e g. universities, industrial federations, private enterprises.
when making their contributions to panel work. 4. 3. Consensual vs dissensual development of recommendations Consensual development of recommendations can be understood as the creation of jointly characterrise priorities, collaborative networks and future actions,
with an emphasis on points of mutual agreement and apparent consensus. This can be contrasted with dissensual development where the emphasis is purposely on retaining the full range of diverse priorities that may be suggested by different value networks
however in the development of the final panel. Some commentators noted that this variabilitywould have been of sufficient interest to deserve publication (cf.
In hindsight, the development of novel methodological approaches in Finnsight most notably the definition of dedicated units of analysis (driving forces, focus areas of competences) and the extensive deployment of internet-based tools for engaging the panel
Developments in parliamentary technology assessment in Finland. Science and Public policy 28, no. 6: 453 64. Salo, A,
In the development of the FTA series the notion of user engagement was to grow stronger.
and in demand-side innovation policies while also influencing the development of those policies. Schoen et al. address recent developments in foresight theory
They argue that this tailored approach should be adopted in the development of the European research area. Ko nno la et al. put forward a framework to clarify different roles of foresight within the system and their respective impacts and implications for policy and societal developments.
which analysed content driven Knowledge dynamics on the one hand and the development of institutional and governance arrangements on the meso-and macro-level of research (national and post-national) on the other.
In the next section, we will analyse the search regimes that are shaping the development of research in the fields selected for the case studies.
2) NGO and green movements have impeded strongly the development of markets for any products including GM component within Europe.
It is composed as a network of research funding organisations responsible for the development of national or regional plant genomics research programmes.
plant genomics development is based a science activity led by industrial companies. This domain displays a strong institutional (i e. inter sectoral) complementarity between industry and academia.‘‘
Based on this analysis conclusions for potential Foresight exercises with a relevant contribution for the development of these fields were sketched.
accepted 1 october 2004 Abstract Every month, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (SRIC-BI) professionals assemble more than 100 short abstracts of developments that they perceive to be signals of change, discontinuities, inflection points, outliers, or disruptive developments.
The inherent unpredictability of technology development and commercialization processes, legal and regulatory developments, and changes in cultural factors and 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
from international trade flows to the development of new materials that defy comprehension, let alone quantitative analysis and prediction.
They must employ equal vigilance both in sensing developments that might enable new capabilities and in anticipating environmental changes,
are constantly aware of developments emerging beyond their own particular current domain, and recognize oncoming threats in time to turn them into opportunities.
The data points can be events, developments, opinions, research findings, or products that participants believe to be early signals that portend significant changes.
Outliers (events or developments that are off the current trend line! Items that defy conventional wisdom K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1085!
Developing an intuitive appreciation for unusual patterns and learning to distinguish between truly innovative developments
But that microchip is directly on the projected development curve of microprocessors. Moore's law predicted that chip 20 years ago not quite what we are looking for.
the same employee might submit an abstract on the development of a microchip that contains system-on-a-chip components to enable Wimax wireless broadband access to homes and offices a much more interesting development in terms of enabling dramatic
chief engineer for the development of one of Toyota's recent concept cars, complains that young people today pay more attention to cell phones than to cars.
What's the next development that will be as transformative as the Internet was? Current odds-on favorites among some scanners involve research initiatives funded by the U s. Defense Advanced Research projects Agency (DARPA;
the same group that funded early Internet development) that are looking beyond the packet-switching architecture
Software systems are even available to set up futures markets that allow employees to bet on the market success of various products a company has in development.
Rapid developments in neuroimaging research have generated abstracts on neuromarketing, neuroeconomics, consumer behavior, and branding. Continuing advances in fields of complexity, nonlinear dynamics,
unless new developments merit a resurfacing of the topic. 5. The product The most important product of the scanning process is increased an awareness on the part of planners, employees,
Developments here also need to be tracked and better understood. Fig. 1 summarises the results of an analysis of 50 foresight exercises described in the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN) database. 1 These exercises listed a total of 199 objectives
but their successful implementation may rely on complementary developments elsewhere (for example in the supply of trained people)
and a disconnection between the development and application of new technologies and the societal and business issues which are wanted by the public and their political representatives.
In this context, embedded foresight activities promote the development of internal collaboration. Cariola and Rolfo link this to an evolution from hierarchical organisational structures with tangible assets to network knowledge-based organisational forms as a backdrop to the formulation of innovation policy 36.
but also opportunities for regulation to foster the development of new markets 37. A series of methodological options, including scientometric indicators,
and developments are needed to the methodologies, both for the quality of results and to convince the regulatory bodies and other stakeholders of their utility.
''40 The common thread in all of these demand side areas is the development of a common vision
This developments have important implications for foresight and particularly for foresight at a time when its utility and potential are being realised both a structuring tool and for the more traditional priority-setting.
In both fields, in particular the development of alternative scenarios help addressing uncertainties and diverse interconnections between many drivers.
Other benefits that could be achieved through the Foresight process include creation of linkages among participants, development of a shared understanding on the various issues at stake,
Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement Nordic ICT Foresighta 17 Informative Evaluations of key ICT applications, Nordic scenario set in context of ICT development, scenario
Building views of the Nordic potentials in ICT development among key actors. Action proposals and policy recommendations.
Also identification of ICT applications with development potentials in Nordic region; future-oriented elaboration of factors affecting the Nordic business and development environment in ICT.
Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of roadmaps and scenarios.
Instrumental The document is a source for the development of the UK Defence policy. Consensual This process aims to provide new evidence
and social and economic needs analysis. Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of scenarios and social and economic needs.
Consensual TF2020 has set up 6 pictures of China development in 2020, and identified 734 key technologies in 8 research fields based on the Delphi survey.
which separates development issues into social and economic factors, emphasising that material gains are not sufficient measures or preservers of human well-being 14.
They are expected to improve the understanding of present 4 In 1997 the European commission published a"Green Paper"pointing at the development of a new Information society
but also by development of new services and new ways of doing business and of interacting with citizens 16.
in order to support the development of the Information society in Europe. In parallel with addressing regulatory aspects, the European union (EU) included in its Fifth Framework programme for Research and Technological development (FP5:
IRRIIS Scenario work was part of the European integrated project that provided improved understanding of the developments in the security field.
since 1970.6 FTA projects in China in broad sense can be traced to‘‘The 12 Years Science Development Planning''made in 1956,
and generated a number of debates on the future of information and communication technologies and the development of a knowledge society in Europe.
In the UK, the Development, Concept and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) a Directorate General of the Ministry of Defence (MOD) conducted a foresight process that produced as a key output a report‘‘the DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme
It is one of the source documents for the development of the UK Defence policy. The outcomes of DCDC Strategic Trends are target to defence decision-makers
and lead to development of actions and therefore also its usefulness and effectiveness for supporting policy-making is more evident.
, pp. 71 88.13 World Commission on Environment and Development, Oxford university Press, New york, 1987.14 Sustainable development: a co-evolutionary view Futures 20 (6)( 1988) 606 620.15 M. Castells, The Rise of the network society.
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