In the last decade, FTA ACTIVITIES and in particular national and Regional foresight programmes have often been oriented to supporting the functioning and development of innovation systems.
It is oriented to supporting the functioning and development of innovation systems, and involves mutual learning processes, involving stakeholders and experts of many kinds.
and requirements for development of tools, techniques and principles, for FTA. The challenges of participatory knowledge management are seen to be particularly important ones to tackle. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.*
and this involves knowledge of historical and contemporary dynamics and developments, and what their implications may be for future circumstances.
a supposedly expert) population anticipate various types of outcome or rates of development, what key influencing factors are seen as being, and so on.
and of course futures research with its emphasis on explicating long-term alternative development prospects. There are quite distinct communities at work in different areas of practice, for example environmental/climatological, employment/skills, security/defence,
the (i) collection,(ii) collation and (iii) summarisation of available information (trends, expected and unusual developments, etc.
Quite often, too, there will be nobody that is really expert on the social issues connected with Emerging s&t developments,
and impacts of development (for example, nuclear technology, or the location of renewable energy projects such as windfarms and biofuel plants).
We may anticipate that developments in S&t that profoundly affect our understanding of what it is to be human (e g. cognitive enhancement, artificial intelligence,
The idea that knowledge development takes place through a (typically clockwise) multi-cycle spiral movement through these different SECI cycle categories is a powerful heuristic for explicating FTA EXERCISES and activities.
There are periods where narratives are constructed about possible trajectories of development; where policy or strategy implications and priorities are elaborated;
statistics of major developments relevant to this area; Delphi or other()TD$FIG Tacit knowledge Tacit knowledge Explicit knowledge Explicit knowledge Tacit knowledge Tacit knowledgee g d e l w o n k t i c i
promote one or other sort of development, and lead to distinctive futures. Often, something like the STEEPV approach in which people are asked to identify factors and issues under the headings social, technological, economic, environmental, political,
which provide a record of development and material for presentational purposes, for other groups to inspect, for inclusion in final reports.
Developments in text mining, visualisation, and related techniques will allow for enhanced use of new IT in scanning for scientific and technological developments and their implications.
Development of rapport and trust can be limited, and dialogue may correspondingly remain more superficial. We would hope that system designers
While this may be very informal codification even involving user-generated tags and the development of tag clouds and‘‘folksonomies,
toward integration of the field & new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.4 R. Johnston, Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis, in:
. Jorgensen, Technology foresight in the nordic countries, A Report to the Nordic Industrial Fund, Oslo, Center for Innovation and Commercial Development, Risoe-R-1362 (EN),
While there has been a great deal of emphasis on the development and use of FTA in the public sector there has been substantial growth in foresight and FTA in business.
10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.006 A short overview of the development of the present situation regarding governance sets the scene for the more detailed analysis of the relationship between governance
not human, development, depends on the advancement of science and technology, has been accompanied by a growing rejection of technological determinism.
However, it was probably the use of the fission nuclear weapons to end WORLD WAR II that gave added impetus to the questioning of the role of science and technology in human development.
and has support themodern criticismof the role of S&t in human development. During the Cold war nuclear weapons strategies were emphasised by Herman Kahn
and other activist groups, continues unabated introducing more complex intrusion into developments in S&t. These concerns have been assuaged partially by the evolution of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), both
what is needed for sustainable human development and how to achieve its objectives. 3. Accountability of governmental institutions and private sector,
and encourages an integrated approach to development which promotes partnership as a key element of good governance.
but was disseminated only worldwide by the World Commission on Environment and Development 21. The concept means development that is able to meet the necessities of the present generation
and does not compromise the rights, and the possibilities of future generations to attend their own necessities.
which are driven by a national plan of between regions and within regions endogenous development. Here
and Development in 1992 23 by representatives of 179 countries) and is at the heart of the quest for new forms of global governance. 5. Corporate industrial activity
Hence, a core issue to CSR is partnership development. 2()TD$FIG Fig. 1. The new governance landscape.
Development Sustainability Environment, Newcastle Civic Centre on 27 september 2003 (available at: http://www. thegreatdebate. org. uk/GDDSEDL1. html, last visited on 03 october 2008.
Ph d. Thesis, University of Manchester, 2005.21 UN, Report of World Commission on Environment and Development:
Thus, drivers of change are those factors, forces or events developments which may be amenable to changes according to one's strategic choices, investments, R&d activities or foresight knowledge and strategies.
and unforeseen developments that have altered in some way at least their expectations if not the direction of their existence,
‘‘warnings (external or internal), events and developments that are still too incomplete to permit an accurate estimation of their impact
and signs usually associated with early developments in technologies, societal innovations, conflicts, origins of conflicts, etc. that while not easily verifiable from a present day perspective.
but not confirmed changes that may later become more significant indicators of critical forces for development, threats, business and technical innovation.
Trade, Debt and Related Globalization Issues BRIC Rapid Development Economies Climate change, Global Warming=sustainable ecology, new economy 5. Geopolitics & Security East-West
or government respondents see the prospective developments in longer or shorter time horizons than the business respondents?
The general area of health system developments and changes is also prominent. Perhaps the most provocative ones are the trends describing broad new domains of human evolution (e g. genetic manipulation
While clearly beyond the scope of this paper, it may be revealing to pursue some scenarios development that focus on tracking many of these possible provocative trends forward to try to estimate how disruptive they might conceivably be by 2025.3.2.2.2.
solar wind, thermal, bio, ocean Progress in nuclear and solar energy is not constraining development Decentralised power generation Changing energy source and supply reconfiguring world power division Diversification and fragmentation
competences Ensuring equity in the development of new technologies Self-proficiency and hoarding alters social patterns Decline of motivation in the youth cohort of industrialised and aging societies Ethics in capitalism under scrutiny Growing tribalism around national,
religious and team sport identities Changes in health risk perception Ethical investment in development projects to promote sustainability Science & Tech. 46 Maturation of S, T and Humanities relationship
life prolongation Technological innovation to create inexpensive self-diagnostic devices Development of a global e-science community The new human:
and hydrogen Regression in the development because of mismanagement of energy sources Hydrogen from LG means pervasive bio-hydrogen production possible Peak oil and climate shifts decisively confirmed meaning to rapid
redistribution of wealth to enable the achievement of millennium development goals New Islamic superpower Rapid climate change overwhelms human capacity Massive failure of capitalism
crime and pollution Total satellite failure interconnectivity black out More frequent natural catastrophies divert resources from development Millions of weather related refugees disrupt global system Religion
all drugs allowed Human decisions change because of the Internet advisory capacity Slow down in the world population from development Science
and ostracised Accelerated ICT development in ubiquitous computation All communications are based mobile, Web and wireless changing human settlements E-science,
what might go wrong rather than seeing possible developments as opportunities or situations that could become positive in a new context;
and polarities so that scenarios development appears to be both possible and desirable; Overall the many obviously very thoughtful responses and the depth and scope of imaginative thinking inherent in these responses suggest a robust series of discussions
and further research and scenarios development may be warranted; Further assessment of survey variables has indicated that there are no dramatic surprises,
since the 2006 International Seville FTA Conference had seen significant development in FTA capacity across many countries and regions:‘‘
R. Johnston, C. Cagnin/Futures 43 (2011) 313 316 314 The first FTA Conference in 2004 gathered predominantly the EU-US community together to take stock of the developments
and to offer a glimpse into possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA.
In this way the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptive events is enhanced through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights.
and offer a glimpse onto possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA in the coming years.
the most important of which might be the energy sector and the development of information and communication technologies.
An overview of the historical development of the latter is given in van Asselt and Rotmans (2002.
identify and reduce the impact of‘‘surprises''Build awareness for limits to identify causal relationships Reduce the role of a potentially hazardous development
or pollutants Effects of fuel prices on person kilometres driven in a region Correlation between the development of GDP and growth rates in freight transport Note:
In this period, a highly optimistic view on the predictability of developments in the transport sector was dominating.
which might take an influence on developments in the transport sector, in particular in transport demand.
and is highly dependent on developments in society but it is difficult to assess which development will take place
and to what extent they will actually take influence on transport demand. Rather open, interdisciplinary assessments are needed to cope better with these uncertainties
A positive example for a careful application and integration of results of different FTA METHODS is the development of the European commissions (Commission of the European communities, 2008)‘‘Action Plan for the deployment of Intelligent Transport Systems''(ITS.
or developments where knowledge about the system and its internal structures is rather weak. The latter is falling into the categories of known unknowns
More recently the development of techniques for coping with disruptive events, often referred to as wild cards,
and corresponding development paths that would enable the achievement of a climatically sustainable emission level
whether some development paths are more desirable than others. The scenario process was facilitated by the Finland futures research centre (FFRC) of the University of Turku in late 2008.
development that will contribute to limiting the rise in the global average temperature to two degrees Celsius at the most,
and reflecting between different policy alternatives that all are able to produce the determined development goals.
the following factors were considered to apply behind all development paths: B Population of Finland is assumed to grow from the current 5. 3 million to 5. 7 million by 2050.
specifying the end future state that the development paths are aiming and based on this material,
and specifying the development paths constructed in the first futures workshop: what actions and which actors play key roles After this round the preliminary versions of the result of the scenario process,
and development that is required in order to reach a given future state. Backcasting is thus a normative method:
The FFRC team's key task was to arrange the material into four development paths not sharing too many common features.
Hence the most important information needs concerned possible development paths in key energy consuming sectors (transport, housing and industry), the additional questions concentrated on these issues.
with questions concerning development paths having limited options on future development to choose from, whereas questions concerning the scenario drafts were open questions.
the Prime minister's Office took the scenario process further and commissioned detailed descriptions of the development paths towards the described end states that would fulfil the two-degree target,
Calculations often oversimplify possible development paths, the VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 309 Table II Attributes of the constructed scenarios Scenario/variable A Efficiency revolution B Sustainable daily mile C
Gardens and greenhouses in residential areas Some development in energy norms. Average living space and total area of heated buildings has increased significantly.
With goods transport rapid development of intelligent logistic chains has lowered the demand Passenger transport with electrical vehicles Transport needs grown
Aim for as extensive self-sufficiency as possible guides the structural development Dispersed in urban areas current trend where people move further away from city centres in search of larger houses,
and take advantage of solutions produced by the development in ICT Transformation away from culture of mass-consumption.
but indeed a development alternative to be taken seriously. An open question remains how various ministries will connect themselves in implementing the recommendations and conclusions in Government Foresight report.
accepted 1 october 2004 Abstract This paper contributes to the development of methods for mapping and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies.
when a technology is in the early stages of development, it is very hard to foresee the social impacts of the technology,
but the course of development can still be altered easily. When the technology becomes part of our economic and social system,
the course of development might be altered (controlled) when the technology is still emerging and not yet entrenched.
in order to appreciate and to influence developments in new emerging technologies, an understanding of the dynamics is necessary.
Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements Reports that translate technological developments into market potentials Articles addressing the market potentials of technological developments Press releases of individual firms Articles that address the developments
and potentials of applications Articles in scientific journals Review articles that give an overview of the developments in the field Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements
The ability to control matter at such small length scales got a big push by the development and improvement of a variety of microscopes (e g.
The promising developments of nanotubes, and nanotechnology in general, have led, at least according to some analysts, to a nanotechnology hype 13.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1099 other hand there are growing concerns about the development
The company plays an important role in the development of nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes. 3. 1. Tracing dynamics of expectations The three levels in the framework can be specified in relation to the case.
and is therefore useful to distinguish what the boundaries are of the case. 3. 1. 1. Society The scientific developments,
A spokesperson in favour of nanotube developments is Richard Smalley (Rice university, Houston, Texas). Considering the following statements from Smalley 21, page 1:
Q These developments call for new techniques to continue the ongoing miniaturisation in the computer chip industry.
bthe developments in these growth and assembly areas suggest that highly integrated SWNT device arrays,
In February 2004 Nantero 29 states they are on track for NRAM development. Here we see that Nantero over the years has built on the expectations that nonvolatile memories will be commercialised soon.
Hence, the developments at Nantero show a clear way towards commercialisation. During these few years Nantero received a rather extensive media attention (37 articles in total) from technology as well as business journals.
Concluding, different developments in basic research have given the building blocks that can be used to develop nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
www. nanotec. org. uk) of nanoscience and nanotechnologgy The goal is to carry out an independent study of likely developments
This should create a new mechanism that will make it possible for the international community to monitor the development of new technologies whose introduction could affect (positively and/or negatively) human health
a processor based on nanotube transistors is impossible to produce. 3. 2. 3. Research group Restrictive factors in the development of technologies are repeating phenomena that end up on the agenda of research groups.
This process can also be observed in the development of nonvolatile memories. Typical problems addressed here were
These developments showed the academic and the business community that the technology (or even nanotechnology) is actually possible of producing workable products for the electronic industry.
The hopes, expectations and also the increasing social concerns raise questions about the possibilities to assess the ongoing developments.
As nanotechnology is still in the early phases of development co-construction by all possibly relevant actors is not straightforward.
developments of TA were leading to different approaches in the United states compared to Europe. In the United states TA kept to policy analysis,
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1108 development of dusefult applications of technology, CTA
indirectly aims at influencing the technology in development via the involved actors. We think the tracing of emerging irreversibilities is an important next step in the development of TA,
and especially in the light of constructive technology assessment. In general, CTA studies aim at assessing technological development in an active way
in order to appreciate and to influence developments in new emerging technologies, an understanding of the early dynamics is necessary.
and acknowledges company on track for NRAM development. Nantero Press release (February 2004. 30 ETC group, Playing god in the Galapagos, News Release (2004)( March), Issue 84.31 S. J. Tans, A r. M. Verschueren, C. Dekker, Room-temperature
In his Phd thesis he examines the dynamics of expectations in the development of technology.
Design/methodology/approach These assumptions are tested in a scenario design exercise that explores the future evolution of the sustainable development paradigm and its implications in the Spanish urban development model.
century and its full development during the twentieth century, one of the key concerns of urban planning has been to foresee the future and limit uncertainty.
which displays in a sequential and hierarchical way how urban development proceeds from territorial planning to urban planning,
systems development, site development and building construction. Each of the five steps has its own geographical scope, objectives, operational methods, norms and administrative procedures.
First, it systematises the debate about future prospects for socioeconomic development amongst a wide variety of agents by building up plausible and coherent future visions.
The proposed approach shows the way that a future urban vision can be VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 319 translated into practical, measurable strategies to guide territorial development in the long term.
Functional implications should provide plenty of clues for the establishment of a set of parametric indicators that will measure urban development impacts.
Since the Brundtland Commission defined sustainable development as‘‘the ability to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs''(World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987),
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2001. However, the reciprocal relations that may develop between the sustainable development paradigm
predator development (circa 2025. This scenario occurs when resources of all types are abundant, but at the same time public and private agents have either a slow or a passive reaction to sustainability challenges.‘‘
‘‘Predator Development''represents a society that regards environmental issues as noncritical, compared to its economic and consumption requirements.
‘‘Back to basics''is marked by the failure of the previous development model, which has led to social tension and frustration.
public policies regarding urban development are decentralised very much at the regional and local level. Regional governments play a clear role in setting territorial strategies,
The‘‘predator development''scenario evolves when resources are abundant, but at the same time public and private agents have a passive attitude toward sustainability challenges.
and intense consumption (see Figure 5). Public policies related to urban development are implemented not effectively because of social and economic pressures.
Figure 5 Scenario B‘‘predator development''PAGE 324 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Conditions inherent to Scenario B favour a local governance model that is opaque
In this scenario, the governance model is managed by a strong centralised power base (probably the State) that makes major decisions regarding the pattern of urban development to be implemented by regional and local authorities.
There is a strong regulatory framework to restrict new urban development to a minimum, in favour of rehabilitation processes.
Meadows, 1998) is established to assess the potential impact of each future scenario on urban development patterns (see Table I). A base-line scenario (2010) is estimated,
Urban design will incorporate criteria to achieve a more energy efficient development pattern. Regarding the transport system,
new road development will kept to a minimum, while the railway network will be augmented substantially and improved.
In the‘‘predator development''scenario, population growth coupled with strong economic development and rising energy consumption will cause a significant increase in the ecological footprint.
Spatial development in the study area will take place as follows (see Figure 9). Territorial management strategies will not incorporate the principles of sustainable development extensively,
while the rest of the territory will be exposed to real estate development. Priority will be given to the construction of road infrastructure in detriment of the railway system.
Under these limitations, spatial development in the study area will occur in the following terms (see Figure 10.
parametric and spatial implications, formulating strategies for future urban development appears to be a quite logical and deductive step in the proposed methodological approach.
Suggested strategies for Scenario B. In the predator development scenario Spanish society is somewhat self-indulgent
and discourage new urban developments. B Build a governance model that is capable of effectively integrating politicians, stakeholders, social movements and citizens on an equal footing.
) This project explored development trends in the metropolitan peripheries of Madrid, paying special attention to environmentally sensitive areas in the Guadarrama mountain range.
The first group of findings relate to the advisability of changing the Spanish urban development model
B The development model will have to be integrated more, more participatory, more coordinated, more technology-friendly,
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2001), Les lignes directrices du CAD Strate'gies de de'veloppement durable, Organisation for Economic Co
-operation and Development, Paris. Schwartz, P. 1991), The Art of the Long View, Doubleday Currency, New york, NY.
United nations (1992),‘Agenda 21 Report'',United nations Conference on Environment and Development, 3-14 june, Ri'o de Janeiro. van der Heijden, K. 1996), Scenarios:
World Commission on Environment and Development (1987), Our Common Future, Oxford university Press, Oxford. World Summit for Social development (1995), Declaration and Programme of Action, World Summit for Social development, Copenhagen.
He has been a consultant for the European commission, the PAGE 334 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Inter-American Development Bank and the United nations Industrial Development Organization.
focusing on the development of an innovative foresight approach to identify major trends and develop visions of alternative futures for a transition towards a more sustainable model.
failing to encompass the use of forecasting methods or foresight tools in the development of their studies.
failing namely to encompass the use of forecasting methods or foresight tools in the development of their studies.
the development of service economies; and other developments such as rapid globalisation, and changing nature of demographical structures, cultural practices, environmental affairs and social services.''
''Furthermore, the number of studies focused on the connection between FTA and the field of social sciences and humanities has increased substantially (Barre'and Keenan, 2008.
) Despite these important developments and recommendations, little has been said about the interlinkages between Law and FTA.
‘‘What do you see as the most significant challenges for the development of the law within your track (and/or in relation to other tracks?
What developments are we likely to see in the coming two to three decades? What do those developments mean for national legal systems in the international legal order as a whole?''
''Muller et al. 2011). ) The objective of the think pieces was to fuel the discussion and provide the necessary material and input for the scenario construction process.
''PAGE 340 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 While the‘‘Living Earth Simulator''will‘‘require the development of interactive decentralized supercomputing that scales up to global level systems
Up until now, the application of ICT to Law has enabled the development of new models for understanding
With the development of modelling techniques and instruments such as the one described above, the impact promises to be even greater.
In effect, the application of this particular ICT-based FTA instrument to Law will enable the development of innovative models for researchers,
ICT developments allow not only for new ways to understand legal systems, but also for sophisticated ways to understand
FTA, in this respect, could also reinforce the development of ex ante impact assessments (the ones performed prior to the enactment of a new legislation,
as well as the performance of ex post evaluation of regulations (which is part of the progress development of regulatory policies,
complementing ex ante evaluations (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2003. Ex ante impact assessment is required to check all possible impact dimensions
and anticipate (if not construct) the various possible future developments that will guide society. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 347 In this way,
legislative drafting and law enforcement. 2. For a historical review of the development of Future-oriented technology analysis, see Johnston (2008).
which acts as a powerful tool for the exploration of the long-term future of closely interacting policy-related issues (including human development, social change and environmental sustainability).
Johnston, R. 2008),‘Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis:
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2003),‘Regulatory performance: ex post evaluation of regulatory policies'',Proceedings of the OECD Expert Meeting, September, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Porter, A l. and Cunningham, S w. 2005
), Tech Mining: Exploiting New technologies for Competitive advantage, Wiley, Hoboken, NJ. Rader, M. 2001),‘Monitoring of technology assessment activities'',report by the European Science and Technology observatory Network, Seville.
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