i e. at early stages of their development when the direction of the innovation process already can be influenced
i e. at early stages of their development when the direction of the innovation process already can be influenced.
Many of the developments called dnanotechnologyt are scientific findings and curiosities rather than R&d results close to a technological application.
Since many nanotechnology-related developments are still in an early phase at present and in the future researchers, developers and users are faced with strategic decisions on the continuation of their efforts again and again.
and participate in the development of science and/or technology. 4. 2. Roadmapping as a precursor of a TA process for specific nanotechnology applications The situation described above rather broad and largely unstructured field of investigation, mostly enabling technologies at early stages of development,
emerging public debates about chances and risks and calls for technology assessment of these technologies, political requirements to orientate R&d budgets on the potential contribution of new developments to sustainable development puts some pressure on the TA practitioner.
or distinctions and often using varying terminology the following basic elements (1) definition of task and system (2) analysis of technology, their applications and framework (3) impact assessment (4) evaluation and development
Many activities that are considered as nanotechnology are closer to R&d for enabling technologies than they are embedded in a product (or process) development,
and follow more or less classical trajectories of roadmap development and application which cannot be discussed here in any more detail.
These developments have put pressure on the TA practitioners to rethink their approaches and outputs as well as to review their methods toolbox 15.
which has to be tied closely to the current developments in R&d and whose results can be fed back into the scientific, technological and also societal decision-making and agenda-setting processes.
improving the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptiiv events through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights and perceptions;
The approach proposed is applied to the development of Dye-Sensitized Solar cells (DSSCS), and shows potential to capture key technoloog
Stronger emphasis on creativity and exploration of truly Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 Preparing for grand challenges 733 alternative future developments are called for to be prepared better to address both the existing Grand challenges
and cultural historical theories of cognitive development and social learning. The paper is organised as follows. The next section introduces the two sources of unpredictabilitty epistemic uncertainty and ontological unpredictability.
In contrast to Darwinian models of evolution where selection weeds out unsustainable developments, in the Bergsonian model, living processes*Email:
uses become drivers of development, and socially and economically important innovations are invented often several times before they eventually start to have real impact.
Bergson argued that development is pushed actively by all living beings. With some simplification, this‘élan vital'could perhaps be called‘the process of life'.
Yet, the evolution has produced a large variety of similar structures for eyes again and again, directing development towards practically useful directions (Mead 1907.
Messaging becomes a key driver for development and profit in the telecom industry, and telecom operators start to write‘messaging'in their strategic plans and marketing material.
where a new direction for development is possible and where vision can be improved. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 746
For example, data on phone calls or callers could not have been used to predict industry developments when short messaging became the dominant source of growth in the industry.
when Nokia introduced the first SMS-capable phone. 4. Leont'ev's activity theory was based on Vygotsky's theories on cultural historical development (Luria and Vygotsky 1992).
Genesis and development of a scientific fact. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press. Garud, R,
World Development 13, no. 3: 441 63. Polanyi, M. 1998. Personal knowledge: Towards a post-critical philosophy.
Socio-cognitive evolution in niche development: Comparative analysis of biogas development in Denmark and The netherlands (1973 2004.
Technovation 30, no. 2: 87 99. Regnér, P. 2003. Strategy creation in the periphery: Inductive versus deductive strategy making.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 772 H. van Lente Technological roadmaps basically are creative connections between expected developments in technological skills, sequences of products and potential future
which would play a leading role in the development of memory chips. The prediction of Moore remained valid with such precision that it has been labelled as Moore's Law,
Techniica development is not solitary work, but the work of networks of companies and research institutions.
Rosenberg (1982) argues that expectations about rapid technologicca development may inhibit the development: when potential customers believe that, within the next few months,
Mackenzie (1990) describes in his study on guided nuclear missiles how the degree of uncertainty about the promised capabilities of the missile depends on the distance from the development itself.
and then no developments follow. So, it is only retrospectively possible to determine whether or not a promise is‘true
more data Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 776 H. van Lente and more developments (Konrad 2006.
Third, the sociology of expectations claims that estimates of the future are rooted deeply in the developments of which they seek to give an assessment.
Social and institutional factors shaping the development of new technologies. Newyork: St martin's Press. Douthwaite, B.,J. D. H. Keatinge,
while, at the same time, the rapid development of ICT tools made the market far more transparent and increased the pressure to optimise commodity production.
A relevant example has been the development of the‘Smart'car concept. A scenario building process was carried out with a special focus on changing mobility patterns in urban lifestyles,
which cooperate in the experimentation and development of innovative ideas, newproduct concepts, and prototypes. A model for uncertainty and strategic foresight In the prior sections, we sketched the strategic foresight approaches that emerged from our data through
and enhance the traditioona identity of the main components of the business micro environment, leading to incremental developments in the value chain, products, and services.
Developments in this approach, such as the natural value chain and value nets, bring into the scenario the requirement of aligning customers
community development and human rights, among others. Existing tools (Appendix 2) operate in two broad areas:
development and delivery of responsible products and services across the network throughout their life cycle. The heart of a network becomes interaction alignment and integration of all operatiion and their supporting activities across products and services among all its actors.
These are assumed to be critical to a business's sustainable Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 802 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge development,
to enable business networks 803 The development of effective and lasting partnerships is critical, requiring a common identity (a true feeling of who‘we'are as partners as well as of who each actor is as individuals)
and resources to be prioritised Run the business FTA creates spaces for experimentation, learning and mutual appreciation, for the development of new or improved linkages and networks,
In these ways, FTA can lead to the development of new (or enhanced) networks or linkages (stronger interactioons with the achievement of common ground, joint visions and enhanced responsiveness among the network members.
The design of the Sustainability Maturity Model is founded on universal principles as well as the maturity of behaviours that can lead to the development of a mature business throughout its network of relationships (Cagnin 2005)
level sustainability net Technology-Focus on manual individdua routine automatiion craft development character-Embryonic-Databased, IT used to build systems that cross functions
development, centrally controlled, predictable and efficient, whereas sympoietic systems are homeorhetic, evolutionary, distributively controlled, unpredictable and adaptive.
along with conflicts, generating transparency, development (Giversen 2003; Larsen 2003) and ability to live with the paradox of chaos and order, competition and cooperation, through sympoietic system capability.
this would also enable the development of a common base of knowledge and sustainability vision,
and practice in RTDI (Research, Technollogy Development and Innovation), business strategy and sustainability, environment management, cleaner production and foresight.
He has wide experience in the management of corporate development, energy matters and corporate venturing to create new high-technology businesses,
& enhancing pro-poor development opportunities. Alexandria, VA: Institute for Alternative futures. http://www. rockefellerfoundation. org/uploads/files/cf248c9f-3d6c-434a-9d1e-7909bb4c1feb. pdf (accessed July 2012.
Report of World Commission on Environment and Development our common future. Oslo: UN. BSI. 2003.
We have applied advanced information visualization tools to understand historical development validate strategic and tactical directions, and identify opportunities for future development for each of the five IAS mentioned above.
An alternative approach to tedious review is the development of a link analysis map coupled with an unstructured text-tagging rulebook.
This unique set of technologies represents the development of a strong and innovative R&d portfolio.
The rationale behind this is that MST provides the expertise in materials for the development of devices in EP and PP;
which in turn will allow us to take a stronger role in accelerating the development of cutting-edge technology.
Nabeel Rahal is a business intelligence researcher and analyst in the Business Development and Corporate Partnerships Center at Sandia National Laboratories.
We use a notion of process-based roadmapping that widens the horizons of traditional technology roadmapping in such directions as visionary strategic management, network building and development,
the adoption of an anticipatory culture does not mean that historical development paths are erased, but in fact quite the opposite:
and the realised path then leads either to growth, even development or decline. It is important to realise that not only the realised paths affect the present development and the future possibilities
but the unrealised options also‘haunt'the present in the organisation's Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and micro-level developments (see Blackwell et al. 2008). This idea of a roadmap as a crystallised strategy chart separates roadmapping from other‘generic'foresight methods, such as Delphi or scenario processes.
This space covers organisational development markets, and also more Figure 3. An ideal model of the knowledge spaces in an RTO.
and development, cutting through the three temporal scales Capacities for the renewal of the technological basis:
and outside the organisation Capacities for aligning development activities with societal drivers Building a market vision Capacities for market creation or entering into existing markets as a novel player Identification of novel
The aim of the process was to form an outlook of development directions in building services, its research needs and business potential to the year 2020 (Paiho et al. 2007.
It was aimed to build capacities for the renewal of VTT's technological basis by stressing the development of a more service-oriented approach.
It roadmapped the potential for a novel development trajectory in an RTO (VTT) and it enhanced the organisational capacities of adopting a novel service science approach.
across disciplines and organisational functions VTT's vision of service was built on the basis of past development paths, current service trends,
and potential development paths Identified societal and market drivers new visionary services; and securing the continuation of the developmental activities in the field.
and international influences in the field Making visionary timelines for the adoption of new solutions Envisioning development projects based on the results this aspired culture.
Built capacity for systemic resilience at Nordic regional level Identification of‘black swan'type of development options Construction of visionary adaptive strategies on the basis of assessment of alternatives to build
and even‘black swan'type of developments in the context of the scenarios. On this basis, the project fostered so-called adaptive strategies, that is, identification disruptive strategic‘holes'for Nordic ICT development.
Case conclusions and lessons learned All the case examples emphasise the roles of partial structural openness
especially on organisational learning theories, network development, and impact evaluation. She has an MSC in Applied Geography from La Sapienza University of Rome.
(i) organisational development enabled by new communicational methods and (ii) marketing issues of environmental technologies. Nina Wessberg is a senior scientist in Foresight and Socio-Technical change team at VTT.
Talotekniikan kehityslinjaat Teknologiat ja markkinat Development trajectories of the building services. Technologies and markets. VTT Tiedotteita 2379.
Concept, development and application. Technovation 26, no. 3: 336 44. Phaal, R, . and G. Muller. 2009.
We present results pertaining to the development of dye-sensitised solar cells. Keywords: Forecasting Innovation Pathways;
It presents results pertaining to the development of dye-sensitised solar cells (DSSCS. We treat DSSC abstract records through 2010 based on searches in four databases.
new product managers as they compose development teams, and national policy-makers as they formulate infrastructures to encourage innovation. 2. Background 2. 1. Tech Mining and FTAS Bibliometrics counting activity levels and identifying patterns in R&d bibliographic records,
What has been lacking is a systematic way of compiling this intelligence on a given NEST regarding the development pathway
We seek to contribute to the development of analytical tools to relate early-stage scientific advances to long-term implications (i e. potential applications.
Several scholars seek to understand the driving forces and the blocking mechanisms that influence the development and diffusion of sustainable technologies (Jacobsson and Johnson 2000;
We adapt these to facilitate our study as a function of the state of development of NESTS.
what are the potential effects that could arise from pursuing a given development path? Stage 4 (Step I) consists of integration and communication.
what steps an organisation should pursue regarding development of this NEST). 3. 2. The case of DSSCS Nanotechnology entails engineering matter at molecular scale, seeking novel applications of new materials and devices.
and influential environmental factors (e g. economy recovery act support for renewable energy development). Key reviewarticles helped us to understand the important componeent and players in this‘delivery system'.
Figure 7 presents a post-workshop depiction of main alternative development pathways. Doug Robinson crafted this (Porter et al. 2010.
and/or policy issues that need to be addressed early in development (e g. scalability of DSSC production).
Presentations of alternative development scenarios to interested parties can communicate and advance foresight processes (Step I). FIP can identify lead
Laying out possible development pathways can help figure out which point towards more special applications (higher price) or niche markets.
Do any requisite developments call for partnering among certain organisations (and, if so, which? Figure 7 details a few issues (as an illustration),
Is the risk framework adequaate The innovation pathways call attention to a need to address such issues that could affect DSSC development
This paper pursues FTA pertaining to the development of DSSCS. DSSCS reflect a variety of component technologies,
We are investigating DSSC technical component developments through patent analyses that combine text mining, semantic/syntactic analyses,
Their main role was to identify key or emerging technologies, looking into the development of science and technology and the expected changes in society.
In recent years, the development of the internet has broadened the potential of exercises: it has enabled the enhancement of foresight objectives (Cachia et al.
The Delphi survey in the 9th Foresight exercise aims to outline the future prospect of development in science
and extensive coverage of key elements including priority research and development, human resource development, social conditions to be improved,
and technology because they are considered complementary to each other also in regard to perspectives of development in science and technology.
and securityb 04-B Creation of new medical technologyb 04-C Development of predictive and preventive medicine Others 02-D Socialization of informationa 02-A Cloud computing 02
Kanama, D.,Kondo, A. and Yokoo, Y. 2008),‘Development of technology foresight: integration of technology roadmapping and the Delphi method'',International Journal of Technology intelligence and Planning, Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 184-200.
It is therefore essential to underpin research policy with robust assumptions and a structured view of possible future developments.
They also discuss the contributions foresight can make to the management system at different stages of development (cf.
Specifically with respect to research policy development in Germany, Meister and Oldenburg (2008) argues that both foresight and subsequent transfer activities have to be constructed as dialogue processes involving all relevant stakeholders.
Dialogues used for transferring foresight results into research policy development do not fit any of these categories
Table I their relevance to strategic dialogues for transferring the results of foresight activities and similar strategy processes into research policy development. 3. The situation in Germany To support research policy development the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
Key results of strategic dialogues are the development of recommendations for the BMBF as input for future research policy.
strategic dialogues have been employed on multiple levels in the process of research policy development: Firstly, strategic dialogues have helped to overcome the necessarily limited perspective of individual units within an organization such as a federal ministry by connecting units with each other in a loose network where ideas can VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 21
and development and with high potential that have not sufficiently been addressed by governmental support so far;
where national governments formulate strategic responses that take into account the existing and anticipated developments in the sciences
) This article will use‘‘grand challenges''as the main term for these developments. This article presents some recent experience of how national research and innovation systems use futures to construct responses (such as new investment priorities) to emerging global challenges and opportunities.
and research development. Two methods were used during this phase:‘‘‘‘roundtable discussions''and interviews. Twelve roundtable discussions were facilitated with senior representation from a cross-section of policy areas, mainly from government ministries and agencies (approximately 90 participants in total.
and development can be a very difficult task. This work was to follow the foresight exercise reported here,
However, approaches and techniques used to identify priority areas for S&t&i development in various countries strongly depend on local peculiarities, socioeconomic policy objectives, the availability of natural resources, the state of the environment,
Many international organisations, including the European commission (2004a, b, 2003), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2006), the United nations Industrial Development Organization (2007),
This study was implemented in the framework of the Programme of Fundamental Studies of the Higher School of economics in 2011. been active in the development of long-term strategies for the rational use of natural resources and in the sphere of environmental protection.
Within the implementation of this foresight study it was realised that S&t priorities should be complemented by innovative priorities for corresponding development of the Russian management system in the field of natural resources,
the identification of innovative priorities for the development of the Russian management system. So, in Russia, three foresight projects related to the topic of natural resources were conducted.
This policy must promote the advanced development of priority technological areas, which would contribute to increasing the growth rate of the economy, environmental safety and the competitiveness of Russian companies,
B Direct impact (high) This means that the project results were used directly for decision-making at government level for the development of national strategic documents.
and B determination of the most relevant steps to be taken to support the development and commercialisation of science and technology.
and implement the federal goal-oriented programme‘‘S&t priorities for Development of the Russian S&t Sector in 2007-2012''.
More than 150 experts were recruited to assess development prospects for the Rational Use of Natural resources area.
An important new methodological aspect was the development of roadmaps, the identification of potential large-scale innovation projects,
natural and anthropogenic disasters and their consequences based on monitoring data and advanced understanding of their origins and development 57.1 1. 71 Techniques for prospecting natural resources,
Thus, the major development areas relating to the‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''field for the period until 2030 were described in the course of the exercise
and S&t development is almost impossible within the inertial development model for a number of reasons,
The innovation priorities until 2025 for the development of the Russian natural resources sector was developed on the basis of identification of the most important problems and challenges regarding the natural resources sector's management system and necessary conditions for S&t development.
As an example, below are presented priorities for innovation-based development of the‘‘industrial waste and cumulative ecological damage''sphere:
One of the tasks for the innovation priority‘‘Creation of Mechanisms for Elimination of Cumulative Ecological Damage''was‘‘Development of a legal mechanism of responsibility for cumulative ecological damage,
B regional priorities for innovation development; and B priorities for international S&t co-operation. However, the real contribution of the Delphi study results to the development of policy documents was mostly indirect
because they were used only as one information source among others and we could not assess the real contribution of these materials.
This study provided a more profound knowledge of national competitive advantages the resources required for development of the most important S&t areas,
whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at development S&t.
design of large-scale innovation projects identification of research projects to be funded within federal and sectoral goal-oriented S&t programmes designing sectoral strategies for industries regional priorities for innovation development priorities
because we could not assess to what extent the project materials were in the development of these documents Indirect FS2 The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,
whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at the development of S&t.
and the country's international S&t co-operation potential through the development of a national innovation system.
which would contribute to its innovation-based development and help to solve major environmental problems. The results of this project were strongly related to policy decision-making,
PAGE 52 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2006),‘Next generation networks:
United nations Industrial Development Organization (2007), Technology foresight Summit Workbook, United nations Industrial Development Organization, Budapest. University of Joensuu (2010),‘Foresight for the development of forest sector in Finland till 2020'',Future Forum on Forests of Finland.
Future challenges to the Finnish Forest Sector, University of Joensuu and Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Finland, available at:
who contributed significantly to improving the quality of this paper. certain paths of development (Gavigan and Cahill, 1997;
With this perception, conventional strength, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analyses are informed by the need to maintain these core competences in the face of the development by competitors of their own core competences and key assets (Hax and Majluf, 1996.
or developments that have the potential to affect a company's competitive situation. Ashton and Klavans (1997) also defined three basic objectives for CTI activities:
and industry development from foresight collected from all over the world. In the foresight experience of small countries such as the foresight activity conducted in Austria named‘‘Delphi Austria,
and analyze future technology development and interactions. 2. Methodological approach 2. 1 Delphi method background Delphi was developed in the 1950s by the US RAND Corporation
and Technology policy Research institute (STEPI) Technology foresight Research team, National research Center for Science and Technology for Development Time horizon 2035 2030 2020 Original category Energy and resources Energy
statistics regarding the code or advanced analysis can be done easily to compare development or the trajectory among different technology domains.
conversion efficiency South korea Solar and fuel cell power system China Hydropower river basin development with complex conditions; large and very large grid-connected/photovoltaic power plant development in desert 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) 32 (Transport) Japan Polymer electrolyte fuel cells
/vehicle use South korea Material for battery/electric vehicles or transportation; fuel cell/vehicle use; hybrid power system/vehicle use China Hybrid power system VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 63 As shown in Figure 3, technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
and the related Delphi topics contain‘‘Development of high energy density of the large battery materials for electric vehicles and various transportation use'',Fuel cell vehicles for practical use,
''‘Development of distributed power technology with large-scale use of alternative energy supply'',Development of low-cost and high-purity hydrogen mass production Technology'development of zero emission power generation system
''and‘‘Development nuclear waste processing method that can reduce the size of nuclear fuel after use
The related topics contain‘‘Development of bio-information technology that can use Terahertz in biomedical operation,
''‘Development of simulation technology than can simulate the interaction of living organism with micro-plasma for medical equipment'',The ultra-high-temperature air-cooled nuclear reactors in practical use
''and‘‘Hydropower river basin development with complex conditions''.''In the rest of the linkages, technologies with cross interactions include source technology 23 (Chemical engineering) to application technology 24 (Environmental technology;
or development priorities is different in each country, the technology intelligence demonstrated by this research still needs to be monitored
Improving the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptive events through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights and perceptions.
the level of socioeconomic development of the country (ies), region (s), sector (s) or city (ies) in which they are conducted;
whereas Gao et al. 7 propose the development of a new forecasting approach to analysing technology life cycle of a particular technology of interest.
and iii) development of dynamic and adaptive plans and policies that are adequate across the multiplicity of plausible futures.
She explores the role that different types of FTA played in the development of nanotechnology governance in the USA and in Germany.
Just to mention a few key developments: the fast progress of the internet offers new opportunities for participatory projects, of both quantitative2 and qualitative nature;
the development of online models accessible to a whole community, or the engagement of a wider group of participants in data analysis (for the latter, see Cooke and Buckley 7). 3 In this regard,
in order to identify truly alternative future developments and to enhance our capacity to live in an unpredictable world 14,20, 21.
Since its first edition the International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis devoted part of its attention to the development of new tools and methods, novel use of existing methods and (new) disciplines applied by FTA.
For instance, quantitative analysis of this kind offers valuable information for the development of S&t Delphi survey topics,
therefore important to monitor their development. Examples of current and upcoming FTA practices Internet-based tools allowing for integration of data of various sorts Online sharing of perspectives on different data types:
linking ecosystem change and human well-being by combining qualitative storyline development and quantitative modelling through several iterations between both parts 44.
it was possible to identify where advancements are needed in terms of model developments. 4. Barriers to integrating FTA METHODS The above taxonomy
In reality, predicting certain elements of a broader system such as demographic developments is not in contradiction in any way with developing multiple futures.
and interacting global development issues 73.393 K. Haegeman et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 reasonable representation of the systems being analysed,
and the development of frameworks that support the selection and implementation of an appropriate combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and tools in a given context, can enhance shared knowledge,
this paper has explored possible barriers hampering such development, and proposed a way forward. Overcoming the barriers identified calls for additional research efforts but also
Research has so far primarily concentrated on the development of innovative ICT tools and of ex-post interfaces,
Cornell University, 1979.55 T. Lawson, Developments in economics as realist social theory, Rev. Soc. Econ. 405 (1996) 422.56 W. K. Olsen, Triangulation in social research:
Developments in Sociology, Causeway Press, 2004.57 A. Sayer, Method in Social science: A Realist Approach, Routledge, London, 1992.
building policy options into a scenario for development in a global knowledge society, Futures 37 (2005) 813 831.74 R. Johnston, Developing the capacity to assess the impact of foresight, Foresight 14 (1
and worked in innovation, education and local development policies. She has experience in quantitative and qualitative research methods
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