But using the patent application counts alone to represent the development of technology oversimplifies the situation.
A research team from MIT 11 studied the development trends of power transmission technology and aero-engine technology by S-curve modelling.
But using patent application counts alone to represent the development of technology oversimplifies the situation. Accordingly, some multiple indicators are used to measure TLC.
So in this paper, we choose the other two indicators to measure the development of technology:
The number of IPC codes represents howmany fields are involved in the development of a technology.
To make clear which indicators are similar with the others in the development trends, we employ a cross-correlation analysis to measure the similarity among the 13 indicators in the four stages.
-TOP10 Fig. 3. Development trends of 13 indicators (TFT-LCD. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
MC-TOP10 Fig. 4. Development trends of 13 indicators (CRT. 403 L. Gao et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 A1 i;
In their opinion, the results fit their understanding for the development of NBS. Therefore, NBS is still in its growth stage (1997 to the present.
Itmeans that there are many technologies still in development, including SPR. Technology managers might informtheir NBS R&d investments by analysing patent application data from 1997 to the present to identify hot research topics or technological gaps.
A thoughtful anonymous reviewer reminded us of the wide range of factors that could change a development trajectory,
and to identify factors apt to alter the course of development that TLC suggests. It is oriented mid-term (i e.,
Change 56 (1997) 25 47.15 R. Haupt, M. Kloyer, M. Lange, Patent indicators for the technology life cycle development, Res.
an empirical analysis, Rand J. Econ. 25 (1994) 319 333.26 T. H. Chang, A study on the Technique Development of RFID-Base on life-cycle theory, Ph d
Study on the technique development of TFT-LCD industry-based on patent analysis and life cycle theory, Ph d. dissertation, Chun Yuan Christian University, Taiwan, 2003.30 A l. Porter, J
what may be the clue to understand the modus operandi of devolutiont per se the development of evolutionary algorithms for many different problem-solving and/or theoretical applications.
Among these new capabilities the TFA Methods Working group has identified recently 1 three main converging areas of development:
The development of a working ETTC bears the correct understanding of three difficult-to-define concepts,
T which interprets the whole history of human social, intellectual and material development as the continuation of biological evolution by other means.
I think that some of the above mentioned points are hindering the development of working computational algorithms to simulate technological evolution.
with the convergence of different fields of science toward what may be the clue to understand the modus operandi of devolutiont per se the development of evolutionary algorithms for many different problem-solving and/or theoretical applications.
Cesare Marchetti 10 and Theodore Modis 11 contributed further to this development calling the attention for the closed relationship between the growth
amplified by the development of learning capabilities (we will turn to this point ahead). 3 Following this reasoning we can state then that humans,
's natural selection threw new light on the evolutionary concept of human cultural development. He proposed the natural selection of hypotheses,
growth and development, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 68 (2001) 1 57.13 H. De vries, Species and Varieties, Their Varieties by Mutations, Kegan Paul, Trench Trubner,
their development over time is dynamically complex, and many aspects related to these systems and their future developments are deeply uncertain.
A similar attitude is advocated also by Collingridge 33 with respect to the development of new technologies. Given ignorance about the possible side effects of technologies under development, he argues that one should strive for correctability of decisions, extensive monitoring of effects, and flexibility.
More recently, Brans et al. 34 andwalker et al. 24 developed a structured, stepwise approach for dynamic adaptation.
support the development of long-term strategic policies under deep uncertainty, and test policy robustness over. EMA could also be used to develop adaptive policies under deep uncertainty
and (3) the development of an ensemble of models that allows generating many plausible scenarios. It then proceeds with:(
Transition of the energy systemtoward sustainability depends on the developments related to new technologies. Such developments are characterized typically by non-linearity and uncertainty regarding technological characteristics and market adoption 48
49. For example, precise lifetimes of technologies are known not and expected values are used in planning decisions. Also, since the installation of new capacity mostly happens in large chunks,
This paper shows a way in which EMA can be utilized to support the iterative development and refinement of adaptive policies in light of a clear exploration of the multiplicity of plausible futures.
and what is the range of plausible future dynamic developments of a phenomenon of interest?
Under what circumstances can we expect which dynamic developments? Because of this focus, EMA stimulates‘out of the box'thinking
and can support the development of adaptive plans or policies. EMA is first and foremost an alternative way of using the available models, knowledge, data, and information.
the debate can then shift to the development of policies or plans that produce satisfying results across the alternative sets of data.
The second case shows how EMA can be used to develop adaptive plans for guiding airport development.
Recent contextual developments constitute a backdrop of change for the Dutch electricity system. Institutional change driven by liberalization, changing economic competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies,
and changing end-user preferences regarding electricity supply are some examples of these developments. EMA is used to explore plausible transition trajectories in the face of these developments given technological uncertainty about investment and operating costs,
and fuel efficiency of various alternative technologies; political uncertainty about future CO2 abatement policies such as emission trading;
for it implies that crises may be difficult to predict based on the monitoring of various exogenous developments.
or prevent certain undesirable dynamics. 3. 2. Adaptive planning for airport development The air transport industry operates in a rapidly changing context.
The purpose of EMA in this case is to help in the development of an adaptive plan for the long-term development of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol that is robust across the wide variety of uncertainties experienced by the airport. 3. 2. 1. Model
or by modifying the stricter slot allocation regime. 3. 3. Identification of plausible transition pathways for the future Dutch electricity generation system Recent contextual developments constitute a backdrop of change
and changing end-user preferences regarding electricity supply are some examples of these developments. In this case
we use EMA to explore plausible transition trajectories in the face of these developments given technological uncertainty about investment and operating costs,
Various alternative developments for these uncertainties are specified. The consequences of each of these alternative developments are assessed using an agent-based model 45 of the Dutch electricity system.
The outputs are analyzed using CART 46, a classification tree algorithm, in order to reveal arch-typical transition trajectories
that there is a limited development of non-fossil generation, suggesting that under most uncertainties a transition towards more sustainable generation does not take place.
we also conclude that under most developments, the future generation of energy will not be very sustainable.
whether EMA can be used to facilitate the development of robust strategies even in the presence of many Table 6 The major uncertainties and their ranges.
Een Wereldwijd Netwerk Voor een Concurrerende Randstad Long-term vision on the Development of the Mainport Schiphol, 2007.38 Luchtvaartnota Rijksoverheid, in:
Chang. 77 (2010) 34 49.49 S. J. Heblij, Development of a runway allocation optimisation model.
Thesis, 2004.50 S. J. Heblij, R. A a. Wijnen, Development of a runway allocation optimisation model for airport strategic planning, Transportation Planning and Technology 31 (2
For instance, developments in science and technology have a strong potential to influence social change. There are, however, many reasons why the practical use of scientific knowledge
and governments deal with international scientific developments in different ways through the policies they pursue 14.
The development of innovation theory over the past decades has involved a major reformulation, with innovation no longer seen primarily as a process of discovery,
the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,
which look at what will happen as the likely development occurs. By contrast, What can happen?
Trying to find the most likely development The eventualities mode Possible futures Openness to several different developments The visionary mode Preferable futures Envisioning how society can be designed in a better way 435 P
In addition, our analysis indicates that scenarios with a strong focus on consensus during the development are often too vague and too broad for defining tangible innovation opportunities.
PROSPECTIVE Environmental analysis of Land use Development in Europe. 437 P. De Smedt et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The images of the future are focused on key internal developments
(i e. inward reflection) and often driven by technology or changes in our way of living.
As a result of these two developments we argue that the difference between experts and the wider public has become less relevant
investigating and utilizing potential future societal changes and developments, see also 62,77. To synthesize this section on results and implications,
investigating and utilizing potential future societal changes and developments. This integrated approach, i e. integrating different modes of futures thinking, is needed for orienting innovation along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems.
climate change, food security, rural development, agricultural knowledge systems. The 2nd SCAR Foresight exercise. Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available at http://ec. europa. eu/research/agriculture/scar/pdf/scar 2nd foresight exercise en. pdf 6. 3rd SCAR Foresight exercise EC (2011), Sustainable
European commission DG RTD, Directorate E Unit E. 4, Brussel. 7. Prelude EEA (2006) Prelude (PROSPECTIVE Environmental analysis of Land use Development in Europe) scenarios.
development of a research paradigm, in: L. V. Shavinina (Ed.),The International Handbook on Innovation, Pergamon, London, UK, 2003.
) have played in the development of nanotechnology governance. In the US, FTA has been used to create visionary concepts
and development and Germany established its public funding program. Understandingwhat nanotechnology is and howit is governed requires first focusing on the governance processes associated with its development
and then recognizing that the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 E-mail address:
The paper analyzes the role that different types of future-oriented technology analysis played in the development of nanotechnology governance.
What are the contributions of the distinct future-oriented approaches to the development of nanotechnology governance?
Today, future governance is seen as crucial for the development of nanotechnology 16.2.2. Approaching the future of nanotechnology:
and Development in The next Decade 1. Vision building at this stage was accompanied by early cooperation and coordination between and among agencies and departments of the federal government.
engineering and technology research and development from the approximately $255 million it spent in fiscal year 1999.1.
entitled Nanotechnology research Directions for Societal Needs in 2020 3 combined retrospective and future-oriented analysis documenting developments in nanotechnology from 2000 to 2010
they address R&d (Advance a world-class nanotechnology research and development program), innovation (Foster the transfer of new technologies into products for commercial and public benefit),
and the supporting infrastructure and tools to advance nanotechnology) as well as risk governance (Support responsible development of nanotechnology) 45.
safety and societal impacts of nanotechnology as environmentally responsible development of nanotechnology 46 and to develop risk governance for nanotechnology 42.
A broader concept of responsible development of nanotechnology in general was developed not (only the identification of risks for safe and responsible handling) 52.
One of the recommendations published in the Nanokommission's final report in 2011 is that the German federal government should establish a national cross-departmental internet platform providing information on developments and activities in the field of nanotechnologies 51.
the BMBF did not report similar activities. 4. 3. Governance structures Beside many parallel developments in the US and Germany,
IWGN workshop report, Vision for Nanotechnology research and Development in The next Decade, 1999.2 BMBF, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, in:
Historical development vs. global expansion, in: F. Jotterand (Ed.),Emerging Conceptual, Ethical and Policy issues in Bionanotechnology, Springer, Netherlands, 2008, pp. 43 63.13 P. Schaper-Rinkel, Governance von Zukunftsversprechen:
Stud. 28 (2007) 1243 1264.16 M. Roco, The long view of nanotechnology development: the National Nanotechnology Initiative at 10 years, J. Nanopart.
Washington. 46 M. C. Roco, Environmentally responsible development of nanotechnology, How the U s. Government is Dealing with the Immediate and Long-term issues of this New technology, Environmental science & Technology, 2005.
107 112). 47 I. Miles, The development of technology foresight: a review, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 77 (2010) 1448 1456.48 A. Zweck, G. Bachmann, W. Luther, C. Ploetz, Nanotechnology in Germany:
and print media 2. stepwise clustering of the findings into visions in interaction with innovation actors through interviews and an online survey 3. development and assessment of scenarios of future innovation landscapes 4. generation of policy implications.
Consistency of the development of different signals was emphasised not. This approach attempts avoiding the exclusion of situations that seem illogical
Both interviews and survey were referring directly to the weak signals without introducing any assumptions on the socioeconomic context or causalities among the respective developments.
Her scientific interests are innovative approaches of scenario and roadmap development. As a mechanical engineer she has conducted various foresight projects on future prospects for industrial production and on research and innovation patterns on behalf of government authorities
the technologies that they address are generally developments of well-known domains. Articulation is of course within the context of a defined phenomenon
They use an analytical framework that they call the‘‘Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM)''to make the case for the convergent development of innovation
and practice that made up the 2011 FTA conversation in the light of subsequent developments.
and concepts such as adaptive foresight 5 and systemic foresight 6 have been suggested for the development of more tailored foresight processes.
In two prospective plans (Perspektivplan I and II) from 1971 and 1974, the government analysed social trends and developments 15 and 20 years ahead for the public and private sectors, respectively.
and the project was placed initially in the then Danish Agency for Business Development. A pilot programme for foresight was launched early in 2001.
The initiative should identify the research needs created by societal and business developments as well P. D. Andersen,
Innovation and competitiveness Denmark's competitiveness Innovation The public sector of the future Knowledge and education Education, learning and competence development What works?
Managing New technology Development, Mcgraw-hill, USA, 1994, pp. 287 314.19 G. Hofstede, Cultural dimensions in management and planning, Asia Pacific Journal of Management 1984
and developments in the contextual environment are connected. In addition, scenario analysis is the systematic analysis of a variety of uncertainties combined into distinctive stories about the future (see 2). In this article
the consideration of scenario analysis as a method includes both the development and the use of scenarios.
each in the context of the development of a strategic environment plan (see 16, 17), that was developed for the first and second Limburg environment plan (covering a long term vision
In the development of the second plan, quantitative scenarios were produced. Policy-makers from the provincial organisation were involved more thoroughly in the development of the scenarios.
The empirical evidence for this paper is based on three indeept interviews with policy-makers who were involved closely in the development of the scenarios, the analysis of the scenario studies,
and the environment plans. N. Rijkens-Klomp P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 19 The Overschie case involves the development and use of a qualitative scenario analysis as a strategic building block for a new strategic coalition
programme for the new governing board 20. In depth interviews were conducted with the four members of the municipality management team
In the case about The hague, a scenario analysis was carried out by 16 civil servants of the Department of Urban Development,
The scenarios were used to reflect on the strategies of the city council's urban development Investment Programme.
The two project coordinators of the Investment Programme were interviewed after the development of the scenarios.
'In each Department (thirteen in total), one interview was conducted to obtain a broad view of how Dutch ministries deal with foresight and organisational development.
which futures research was applied to policy and organisational development. This research approach is different from the research at the local level;
However, he was involved not from within the national government in the development and implementation of foresight methods for policy formation.
The national policy foresight'study showed that studies of the future can be a source of inspiration for the development of new policy ideas, for agenda setting (i e.,
and process-driven motives for using the scenario analysis method in the different phases (see also the distinction between process-oriented and product-oriented development of scenarios 10).
to gain a better understanding of the future of the issue at stake, the degrees of uncertainty involved, the coherence of future developments, the speed of change of developments,
and/or developments they consider relevant. Learning to think in terms of alternative futures was seen as an eye-opener, especially at the local level.
For example, combining insights from a future analysis with the development of a policy vision and various strategies was seen as a sluggish process.
and facilitating the development and use of scenarios requires skills that were lacking when local organisations decided to conduct a foresight study for the first time.
Policy-makers indicated that they want to remain in control during the development (and use) of the foresight study.
because it conflicted with the widely held belief that futures research methods are instruments that speed up the development new strategic policies.
To summarise, at both the national and local levels, a kind of‘future champion'plays an important role in the development of the foresight process and its application to strategic policy-making.
At the same time, a spectrum of foresight methods can be applied to develop a better understanding of possible future developments of the systems under analysis 7. In this context
which the exercise takes place supports the development of a common understanding of different, even diverging, viewpoints.
and (v) innovation, competence development and education. The aim was to identify relevant research topics and the supporting actions needed to shape the future of intelligent manufacturing through international cooperation in each of,
ii) The development of a storyline explaining the interactions between these features; 7. Assessing the developed snapshots.
The results of this exercise were used then as an input for the development of the IMS2020 Vision during a vision building workshop,
could have been justified in the IMS2020 project to gain more insight on the developments of different systems. 10 The mentioned framework has been used by JRC-IPTS in a number of projects
The development of scenarios, the vision building process and the final roadmaps included not only expectations, needs and viewpoints from the IMS region,
It explains the development of a particular variation of a roadmapping technique, the so-called‘multi-path mapping'(MPM) toolset by exploring its prospects
The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises to assess the degree to which they promote the development of‘participatory knowledge societies.'
These include horizon scanning (e g. of weak signals), strategy setting, development of corporate visions, portfolio analysis, and as an aid in the management of supply chains.
Her job is to contribute to the development, implementation and monitoring of the JRC work programme in support to the JRC's mission to provide scientific and technological support to the European community Policy making.
development and innovation 7. Users are seen as important sources of knowledge and co-shapers of the innovation trajectory (cf.
Development and Innovation (RDI) activities. Similarly, Participatory Innovation sought to empower people and to create an environment for user innovation in a broad sense 13.
Although firms and development teams usually have certain assumptions and develop visions of the future,
and informing decisionmakking strategic thinking with a long-term vision in the innovation development trajectory''11. Different from more policy oriented institutional Foresight exercises,
Both studies have sought to engage current users at an early stage in the exploration and identification of possible future development ideas
‘In development'shows the number of experts (N=15) that believe this idea is already in development somewhere,
but also considered as being in an already advanced stage of development. This idea was mentioned also by the largest number of respondents.
or more of the digital TV-viewers and is also at a more advanced stage of development.
Technology-driven impulses and developments have resulted in continuously improving sound and image qualities (e g.,, immersive 3d TV experiences), ubiquitous TV experiences via mobile devices, advanced possibilities for on demand viewing, etc.
Idea Market potential now(%)Market potential+5y(%)In development Implemented 5y Virtual digicorder 23.7 48.2 13 13 Visual EPG 13.1 37.7 10
content providers), hardware development, distinguishing characteristics, business models, etc. Additionally, different experts were consulted and asked for their expectations concerning the future of TV and their vision on the future TV user and TV SET of the future.
and simplicity should still be key in the development of future TV experiences. This was the case for all 6 personas, both the positive and the negative personas.
both very advanced users as well as non-expert users are capable of reflecting on possible future developments, their possible impact,
and anticipate possible future developments, needs, expectations,..IF aims to enhance users'input to and their influence on the inclusive knowledge creation process.
Future research should focus on the development of a comprehensive classification and integration of methods that are relevant for IF purposes,
A Qualitative Study on the Domestication of Interactive Digital Television in Flanders,(Unpublished doctoral thesis), Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 2011.32 A. Følstad, Living Labs for Innovation and Development of Information
Such alignment shall take place through the development of a common vision and both joint and individual strategic objectives and related customised operational processes and monitoring systems. 3. Empirical applications:
the mutual learning process between State and citizens'representatives enabled the development of shared decisions, which resulted in the design of more robust and consistent policies that were aligned with local needs.
In this context, the proposed system was implemented to support a rethinking of the institution, its values and its development into a desired future,
Moreover, the use of Commonkads (step 5 phase 3) guaranteed organisational learning to take place based upon the development of new abilities for all involved (teachers, students, community, etc.
These were generated through the development of strategy maps (phase 2), in conjunction with the city of Floriano'polis, SC, Brazil and relevant stakeholders,
This enabled the development of the necessary infrastructure for the venture, as well as provided scholarships for the members of the community.
Hence, the proposed system should improve in terms of its notion of stakeholder involvement to enable the development of a common vision to be pursued across the system,
This is true even in stages one would believe to be otherwise, like in the development of scenarios, in the construction of strategy maps or in the strategic management of initiatives.
In turn, this would foster the development of partnerships based on trust (thus supporting phase 4). S v. Marinho,
Also, such a system shall enable the development of associated collective and individual strategies with related action plans as well as monitoring and evaluation systems.
a development guide, International Journal of Operations & Production Management 17 (1997) 692 704.23 R. Kaplan, D. Norton, Strategy Maps:
Accelerating and Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities, Institute for Alternative futures, Alexandria, VA, 2009.51 C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la, Global foresight:
The article finishes with concluding remarks. 2. Toward networked foresight 2. 1. Analogies in the development of innovation management and futures research Liyanage 13, Niosi 14 and Ortt and van der Duin 15
and in scientific discoveries and technological knowledge, leading to the development of products and services. 2. Market pull:
and developments that are likely to impact the future of the focal firm and the preparation of adequate measures to react to the various possible futures 22.
The close link between innovation and futures research tempts analogies to be drawn between the historical developments of both concepts as illustrated in Table 1
this article seeks to analyze the apparent next step in the development of futures research: networked foresight. 2. 2. Linking futures research to innovation networks 2. 2. 1. Trends driving corporate innovation toward open innovation processes Innovation, i e.,
, the results of the foresight project challenged existing development projects and led to strategic changes within the company.
First, the close connection between innovation management and futures research and analogies in their past developments hint at networked foresight as a logical next generation of futures research.
and reveals the stages of development of networked foresight in the different cases. In the case evaluations
and to forecast newly identified development paths and potential new products and services within WINN Singular activity 1. 4 Series of future workshops Determined relevant societal developments and innovation needs that the activities originating from WINN give rise to Project 5 In 2008
and evaluate possible future developments within the project boundaries. Thus, the futures research activities within EICT usually address thematic issues in various industries.
and developments in preselected fields, provides images of the future, identifies innovation opportunities and potential for commercialization,
trends and developments in selected fields, establishes a common outlook on the future of ICT
in addition to conceptual work about possible future developments created a kind of‘‘the urgent drives out the important''atmosphere as Henri Kissinger put it.
The latter in terms of identification of relevant developments and strategic guidance. While the setting of WINN has undergone two major changes toward more openness the grounding
and project teams consisting of employees from the working level helps to capture developments from the various partner organizations on different levels A regular selection
a portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development, Futures 42 (2010) 380 393.18 F. Phillips, On s-curves
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