and the need for further methodology development in this area are highlighted, due to the fact that the project did not lead to direct policy measures.
The methodological framework proposed in this paper is relevant for the development of policies aiming to match technologgica innovations better to societal needs.
In business management the term environnmenta scanning is used to refer to the systematic observation of developments that present either threats or opportunities for the business.
and relatioons knowledge gaps and potential hazardous or promising developments Characteristics of government horizon scanning An analysis of different horizon scanning exerciise and descriptions highlights the following characteristics:
Most of the broader governmental horizon scans were initiated by ministries of defence or their agencies (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centrre 2006;
Horizon scanning on the national level, across all policy areas (including S&t opportunities) is a receen development
and formulate recommendations for the development of international cooperation in horizon scanning, including how it can be used.
reseaarch development and innovation. Identify knowledge gaps (relevant for resolving future problems or for exploiting potential opportunities).
Development of the national horizon scans Data collection All three scans were developed in phases. In the first phase
of 366 proposals from the general Sigma Scan development Activity Engagements Output Scan the scans Categorise data Create the E-database Society
culturral ethical and intellectual quality, stimulate cultural development and cultural expression as long as it does not interfere with other dimensioons increasing the intellectual level in service of the other dimensions;
and Innovation that aims to promoot research and innovation of a high international standard for the benefit of Danish society, facilitating development in economic,
and regional and local communities that asked for help and/or cooperation in the area of horizon scanning and development of future strategies.
and lead to the joint development of methodologies for using and carrying out the scans. Discussion and conclusion All three scans delivered issue lists which overlapppe considerably
which can be used for different purposes such as R&d agenda setting and the development of more resilient policies.
making sure that existiin scientific evidence is overlooked not or contradiccted with the need to point to potential future scientific developments for
or weak signals for strong impact developments to come. Embeddedness In the UK the horizon scan is embedded in the strateegi function of government
Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) 2006. The DCDC's Global Strategic Trends Study, 2007 2036, third editiion Swindon, UK:
thus contributing most to the development of the EU knowledge economy. At the same time creativity is a key driver of growth
in order to reach a consensus as to the most likely developments and critical issues for further policy discussion.
but they are equally relevant for policy-makers at the point of defining policies in support of the creatiiv content sector development.
In addition, as neithhe of the two possible future developments seemed to be more likely than the other it was necessary to add the (originally unforeseen) scenario process
development of innovative tools for content creation, publication and online access; and increasing pressure on users'attention and increased difficulty to navigate content.
and the open issue of the likely development and importtanc of virtual worlds (like Second Life) and multiplayer online games (like World of Warcraft.
market-related issues (e g. development of new, sustainable business models; and societal sustainability issues (e g. user empowermeent cultural diversity.
which facilitates the potentially positive developments identified in some of the scenarios, while protecting citizens and consumers from the potential disadvantages.
new initiatives to provide incentives for ICT trainiin and skills development; promoting study programmes and curricula combinnin technical, business and creative skills;
facilitating mobile content development; accelerating broadband penetration; developing mechanisms to monitor trends and measure impacts;
Creative industries and Development. Repoor TD (XI)/ BP/13. São paulo: United nations Conference on Trade and Development.
Available at<http://www. unctad. org/Templates/Download. asp? docid=4850&intitemid=2068&lang=1>,last accessed 28 january 2010.
technology and innovation program development. Since founding the Office of Technology foresight at the National research council in 2002, he has led
and members of the European community have used to guide their foresight design Quality of products Produce future-oriented materials for the system to use Development of reference materials for policy-makers and other innovation actors More informed science,
repositioning of old ones Establishment of communications structures between innovation actors Support the empowerment of (innovation and futures) systems actors Contribute towards the development of actor identities Foresight provides many opportunities for enhanced
and their changes to system actors Development of significant new ways of thinking about challenges and opportunities Promote collective learning through open exchanges of information
and Denmark National Technology Board and Spain Regional foresight (also identified as countries that had used foresight in more specific applicatiion related to national policy development.
Mcluhan Tetrad Model) Define priority areas for technology policy Survey national technological development Stimulate development in priority areas of technology development and research;
thus stimulate the development in these areas Better understanding the interaction among technologies and realize gains resulting from this interaction Allocate funding for research
steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'.'Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Futuureoriented Technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Such shifts can result in new technological possibilitiies with potentially revolutionary impacts associated with changing innovation patterns, industry structurres and broader developments in society.
2004) directed to the application of converging technologies to development of a Europeea knowledge society. This report contains the pragmatic definition:
He was the first director of Chula Unisearch, a business-oriented commerciallizatio unit of Chulalongkorn University and the direccto of the S&t development Program at Thailand Development Research institute.
Vaccine development and delivery can be speeded up using genetics, nanotechnology, moleccula biology and bioinformatics. Moreover, health systems research using social sciences,
Within the scope of existing and new technollog development to combat EID, the study proviide evidence of how the FTA can address societal issues and challenges,
and development (R&d) needed to manage, prevent, or combat EID. To complete the objective in Phase I,
the technology roadmapping technique was applied to analyze the linkage between the development of supporting technologies
development of technologies supporting the requirements; key technical and policy challenges that could Aim to exchange experts'views about the severity of infectious diseases
to combating EIDS Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 48 Table 3. Roadmap for development of EID diagnostics 2007 2012 2013 2017
vaccine development, production and delivery are essential components of any strategy to combat EID and must be supported strongly.
IT is an integral part of developments in all the domains. Modeling: the availability of realistic models can assist policy-makers in developing options for coping with outbreaks
more effort is needed on the development of therapeutic drugs for more effective risk managemment even for those infectious diseases for
and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 50 identification of‘technology roadmaps'that are to be applied to a wider geographical area and more diverse level of technology capacity and socioeconommi development.
it remains difficult to create a meaningful synergy between users and technology in the field of ICT development.
The main contribution of this work involves the development of a‘segmentation forecastting tool for prior-to-launch prediction of adoption potentiial and the development of a blueprint for better introduction strategies for ICT innovations in today's volatile market environment.
This social constructivist vision aims to make technollog development more user-and human-centred. Closely related to the social shaping perspective is the social construction of technology (SCOT) approoac (Bijker and Law, 1992), in
development teams are forced now to explore new and interdisciplinary methodological tools. Challenge 2: Integration of knowledge:
In this respect it is relevant to mention the gap betwwee Qoe and Qos, two important concepts in the field of ICT development.
In the second stage (concept development and evaluatioon) a selection of mobile applications was studied by interdisciplinary research teams in a horizontal layer
and find it difficult to empathize with other users'lifestyyles e g. a 25-year-old reflects only on his daily Innovation-development process Prior-to-launch Post-launch R&d Opportunity identification Concept design Concept development
and evaluation Innovation development and production Test market and piloting Launch Adoption diffusion User diffusion,
and can therefore provide valuable input for technologgica developments. Potential service providers were contacted and sounded out for their interest in Table 2. Final list of 80 (future) mobile applications Finding people with same interests Note taking Reader Mobile payment Traffic jam
An exploratory investigation of user involvement in new service development. Journal of the Academy of Marketiin Sciences, 30 (3), 250 261.
Strategies and Development, S b Heilesen and S Siggaard Jensen (eds. pp 137 166, London: Hershey (PA.
Towards a living lab for the development of online community services. The Electronic Journal for Virtual Organizations and Networks, 10,47 58.
New media design and development: diffusions of innovations v social shaping of technology. In The Handbooo of New Media, L Lievrouw and S Livingstone (eds.
Dealing with dilemmas in pre-competitive ICT development projects: the construction of‘the social'in designing new technologies.
+for firms with less than 200 employees+for firms with low intensity of CIMT use Görg andstrobl (2007), Ireland R&d grants from (Industrial Development Agency (IDA) Ireland and Forbairt
which they address key issues in the development and implementation of FTA in relation to these challenges.
the development and implementation of new approaches to FTA, particularly the application of horizon scanning;.experiences of particular organisations, operating at both national and international levels,
FTA can support the development of knowledge by providing, for example, insights on longer-term developments, the scope and opportunities for shaping futures,
the transition to a sustainabbl society, health and lifestyles, agri-food or the development of new defence tools.
and the interpretation of the resultiin clusters as an important step towards the coordinated development of joint policy measures.
understanndin and preparing for the effects of climate change and the associated development of a decarbonised global economic system:
as well as to the FTA conference more generally, clearly demonstrate there is a growing volume of valuable and appropriable experiennc in the development and application of fta, in terms of both the process and methods and the organisational context in
and much greater experimentation with the development of more horizonnta mechanisms;.embedding an FTA capacity designed primarily not to support incremental change,
FINEP's mission entails promoting economic and social development in Brazil through public funding for the development of ST&I.
and IPR as applied to biotechnology development Validation of results in workshoops final report and disseminnatio of results Nanotechnology Mapping current situation and future trends in S&t in Brazil and in a number of selected nations,
aiming at comparing development of nanosciences and nanotechnologies in selected countries Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 251 supporting basic and applied research;
the development of innovative services, products and processes; the incubation of firms and the implementation of a technological infrastruuctur in private and public organizations.
The major challenge in the development of prospective studies is to identify which events or change drivers are actually relevant
A number of structuring elements were defined for the development of the prospectiiv timeline. These are presented schematically in Fig. 4 (only the observation dimensions
which provided a clearer vision of the internatioona context of ST&I development and the role of funding agencies.
Figure 5. Methodological process for development of FINEP's SMP. 254. C. C. Nehme et al.
The four phases proposed for the development of the SMP (see Fig. 5) were defined to meet the needs of the process, taking into consideration FINEP's culture and experience in planning and management over the years.
regarding the whole process, from methodology development to the analysis and validation of the results obtained..
built to contribute to the development and validation of the main results of the SMP, with clear attribution of responsibilities.
The development of the FINEP SMP also represented an excellent opportunity for those participating to reflect on the main characteristics of the national ST&I systeem whether good or bad,
Foresight exercises are exposed usually to some dangerrou pitfalls throughout their development. It is imporrtan to note,
2011)‘ Strategic foresight applied to the management plan of an innovation development agency',Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24: 267 83.
China, science policy, research, innovation. 1. Introduction and problem definition In recent years, there has been a rapidly growing interest in the development of science, technology and innovation (STI) in the People's republic of china.
During the‘pre-reform period',the development of the S&t forces was interrupted frequently by political movements, especially during the Cultural Revolution (1966 76.
After the end of the Cultural Revolution, the direction of China's development policy, and with it its S&t policy, changed radically (Gu and Lundvall 2006;
Throughout the era, Chinese leaders have pointed to science as a key to economic progress and competitiveness, most recently through the concept of‘scientific development'and the launching of the indigennou innovation strategy (e g.
such as the Chinese Academy of S&t for Development (CASTED) but also the Institute for Policy Management at the CAS and academics at selected universities, such as Tsinghua.
The Development Research center under the State Council (DRC), a think tank, also contributes to setting overall policy directions through its analyses.
The National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance influennc S&t policy-making through their responsibilities for overall economic policy and the budget, respectively.
Finally, provincial governments and S&t offices play an increasingly important role in setting priorities for industrria development
or guihua) to drive the development of S&t, as well as economic and societal development. The latest MLP was presented in February 2006
The 863 Program serves the goal of‘leading to the future'by supporting the development of frontier technologies.
which focus on strengthening agricultural and rural development research, on promoting the developmeen of high-tech small and medium-sized enterprises (SMES),
and promote development of agriculture based on S&t achievements State Key and New Product Program 1988 Support new high-tech products for key industries 9th Five-year Plan National Program
with high value-added and foster international competitiveness 10th Five-Year Plan Agriculture S&t Transfer Fund 2001 Foster development of S&t achievements in agriculture
aiming at promoting the development of high-tech industry and the use of S&t in rural economic development, respectively.
again reinforcing the focus on missions rather than institutional development (Suttmeier et al. 2006). Overall, institution-and capacity-building have received much less attention and focus than mission or excellence as priorities
and Lundvall (2006) who argue that the investments in S&t have not been supported sufficiently by institutional development.
and Fangyun Chen) to national leaders, calling for the acceleration of China's high-tech development. They stressed the need to meet the challenges of the global technology revolution and competition and pointed to the US Strategic Defense Initiatives as well as Europe's EUREKA Program.
From April through September of 1986, the State Council mobilized hundreds of experts to draft an Outline for Development Of high Technology
973 Projects) with programs for industrial development (Mega-engineering Projects) and sectoral technology programs on a more modest scale (Key technologies Programs, 863 Projects).
Ke, Y. 2004) Science and Technology in China Reform and Development. Beijing: China Intercontinental Press.
Lv, W. 2007)‘ Enhancing the basic role of knowledge innovattio in the innovation system',China Development Review, 9: 38 47.
Mu, R. and Qu, W. 2008)‘ The development of science and technology in China: A comparison with India and the United states',Technology in Society, 30: 319 29.
play an essential role in shaping and fosteriin the development of an innovation system, in this paper we will pay special attention to the role of national institutions in the development of new innovation systems.
Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 271 281 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs008 Advance Access published on 11 march 2012 The Author 2012.
Indeed, the pharmaceutical and the agricultural sectors not only possessed contrasting opportunities for the development of biotechnology,
as well as their analysis of the role of national institutions in the development of an innovaatio system.
A national innovation system focuses on the national development of technology and industries. The national frontiers draw the boundary of an innovation system.
The OECD (1999) also claims that RTDI policies should match the development of the national system.
The evolution of biotechnology and the two sectors before 2000 in fact deeply influences the development after 2000.
we select Taiwan as our empirical case and focus on the development in the period 1945 2000.
In fact, during the colonizzatio by Japan, for political reasons, the development of Chinese herbal medicines was constrained strictly.
At the time, strict clinical trials were applied gradually for the development of new herbaceous5 medicines.
Since the universities were supposed not to directly interact with firms, the Development Centre of Biotechnology (DCB),
The Taiwanese government did not strategically promote a‘set of consistent policies'to foster the development of pharmaceutical biotechnologgy Instead,
Furthermore, according to the Eight Key Industries policy, the development of biotechnology was almost equal to the development of the pharmaceutical sector
The R&d policies thus turned to encouraging the development of new herbaceous medicines (NSC 2010. To sum up:
before the late 1990s, the government did not have specific policies to encourage the development of modern pharmaceutical biotechnology.
Only in the late 1990s did the government start to support the development of modern pharmaceutical biotechnnolog through supporting the innovation of new herbaceous medicines. 3. 2 Evolution of the Taiwanese agricultural biotechnology innovation system 3. 2
and successfully grown in the trial fields were milestones in the development of genetically modified organisms (GMOS).
The Taiwanese government supported the development of agriculttura biotechnology through its agricultural policies. The purpose of these policies changed dramatically in the 1980s.
The majority of foreign exchanges were used to support the development of manufacturing industries, particularly the information and communication technologies (ICT.
agricultural biotechnology was recognized not as a part of the development of biotechnologgy Indeed, since the 1980s, compared with the prosperoou ICT industries,
In sum, besides its agricultural policies, the Taiwanese government did not have particular policies to support the development of agricultural biotechnology.
and provide contrasting opportunities for the development of the knowledge. In the Taiwanese pharmaceutical biotechnoloog system the main knowledge base of both local SMES and MNCS was chemical engineering.
and did not produce any opportunities for the development of traditional biotechnollogy Modern biotechnology was introduced only to the system after the 1980s
The system provided the chance for the development of both traditional and modern biotechnology. The traditiiona biotechnology of hybridization had already been used before 1945
the first biotechnoloog policy, targeted the development of the pharmaceutical sector, rather than biotechnology. Whilst the public organizations such as the DCB transferred technologies to pharmaceutical companies,
In summary, the development of the NSTIS is shaped deeply by national institutions such as national RTDI policies.
the NSTIS, the RTDI policies which can appropriately foster the development of an innovation system, can be reanalyzed.
Thus, appropriate RTDI policies which foster the development of NSTISS should cluster the network of actors, support the underlying logic of knowledge accumulaatio and exploitation in a particular technological field,
In the case of biotechnollogy a government should have different sets of policies for the development of pharmaceutical biotechnology and agricultural biotechnology.
or copied from another NSTIS will find it very difficult to appropriattel support the development of a specific NSTIS.
‘how'could a government make appropriate RTDI policies to foster the development of NSTISS? The question should be analyzed further in future research.
2. The medical device sector also adopts biotechnology through the development of bio-chips whose knowleedg base is across electronic engineering and biotechnollog (Dr. Chip 2010).
Chang, Y.-T. 1982) The Development of Agricultural Companies(.Taipei: Linking(.280. C.-C. Chung CLA.
Development Center of Biotechnology. DCB (2004) The Yearbook of Chinese Herbal Medicine Industry 2004. Taipei:
Development Center of Biotechnology. Ding, Y.-X. 2001)‘ The history, current condition and future of pharmaceutical industry('.
Giesecke, S. 2000)‘ The contrasting roles of government in the development of biotechnology industry in the US and Germany',Research policy, 29: 205 23.
Science and Technology research and Information Center (2005)‘ Strategic planning on the development of Taiwan agricultural biotechnology industry'(.
A review of the past and projectiio for the future',Forum for Agricultural Innovation and Development Council of Agriculture, 26 nov 2004, pp. 15 21.
as should the dynamics of research and innovation processes and the scope and opportunities for steering their reorientation along more desirable pathways of development.
and that lessen the conditions that allow adverse developments to occur. Certain traditions in the FTA family of approaches, particuularl technology assessment, have taken the reorientatiio of technological trajectories and innovation activities as an explicit goal.
and the working of institutioons and their dynamic functions of experimentation and learning, knowledge development, knowledge diffusion,
and towards an operational agenda that appreciates both the dynamics of innovation processes and the scope and opportunities for their steering or reorientation along more desirable paths of development.
Nurture knowledge development: this is considered to be the most basic function of innovation systems without which nothing else would happen.
The sources and locations of knowledge development are wide-ranging, and include R&d activities in the public and private sectors,
an important function of innovation systems concerns the development and mobilisation of human resources, financial capital and complementary assets (e g. infrastructures.
The mobilisation of resources has important consequences for knowledge development activities. 4. Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges The special nature of the requirements of grand challenges to find effective solutions brings to the fore concepts such as transformative
and the development of new capabilities to detect and process signals of future change. In this way
The informing role of FTA most closely relates to the innovation system functions of facilitating experimentatiio and learning, knowledge development,
FTA PROCESSES place a special emphasis on novelty, creativity and multi-disciplinarity in knowledge development, qualities that are needed
research and innovation programmes Knowledge development Transformative shifts implied by solutions to grand challenges will need new knowledge as well as a new type of knowledge production.
and mobilise resources The development and mobilisation of new resources translates into new skills (or reorientation of existing ones) and the reallocation of financial resources.
and the design and development of appropriate forms of resilience Mobilising and structuring actor networks Improve implementation by enabling transparency,
and examining developments and possible implications. By promoting the inclusion of all relevant stakeholders they can facilitate cross-sectoral collaboration between the public and private sectors as well as between various industries, a multilevel governance approach,
and priorities through knowledge development based on expert knowledge and by mobilising the resources availabbl in the actors already involved in the projects.
Enhancement of the strategic capabilities of individuals and organisatiion through the development of a foresight culture can be an important side effect of any FTA ACTIVITY provided appropriate provisions are made in the design of the new instruments.
and create solutions to situations or challenges at hand Knowledge development FTA, as a source of‘strategic intelligence'for policy and other actors, is itself a knowledge-creating activity.
for example, provide insights into longer-term developments, scope and opportunities for shaping futures, and mutual positioning of other innovation system actors vis-a vis the future.
through articulation of market-shaping expectations and visions and conditions for coordination of market actors that these provide Structuring role of FTA allows consideration of future market applicability of different alternatives alongside with research excellence needed to foster their development Capacity
Current EU programmes and initiatives mainly exploit the informing role of FTA in knowledge development and in providing guidance for direction or prioritisation of research areas and themes.
It provides a framework to network and mutually open national or regional research programmes, leading to concrete cooperation such as the development and implementation of joint programmes or activities.
Mcgraw-hill. Gassler, H.,Polt, W. and Rammer, C. 2008)‘ Priority setting in technology policy historical developments and recent trends'.
2010)‘ The impact of European policy on the development of the ERA in the areas relevant to environmennt'Draft Final Report.
Jacobsson, S. and Bergek, A. 2006)‘ A framework for guiding policy-makers intervening in emerging innovation systems in‘catching-up'countries',European Journal of Development Research, 18: 687 707.
institutionalisation. 1. Introduction Increasingly dynamic processes of change and sudden disrupptiv developments are becoming the norm rather than the exception.
Similarly, in many respects, breakthrough technologies due to developments in information and communiccatio technologies and nano-and biotechnologies have disruptive impacts on economies, markets and innovative consumer goods and services.
These developments heighten the uncertainty in the face of likely transformation processes ahead which call for strategic orientations (cf.
What kinds of developments can we observe in terms of how these models are used in practice?.What do these findings suggest with regard to the future direction to take for organising FTA ACTIVITIES?
but also possible disruptive events or developments that may radicalll influence the future. This trend reflects growing attentiio to uncertainties and complexities,
By looking into the latest developments in how FTA systems understood as combination of governance modes
we want to explore the direction in which FTA is likely to evolve in the future. 3. 1 Emerging developments in FTA systems This section looks at how emerging developments in FTA deal with challenges of transformative change,
and are thus a good indicator of ongoing developments in FTA. The analysis of the selected papers on FTA attests to the richness of approaches in relation to different types of transformatiions governance modes
For instance, integration in view of central planning vs. competition in view of market forces defining urban development Individual regional foresight project‘Embedding foresight in transnatiiona research programming'Deals with deliberate approach to both rapid
thus suggesting co-development of institutional and networked organissatio of FTA systems Ko nno la et al.
Overall, networks for the collaborative development of crosscutting challenges Coping with a fast-changing world. 161 may help reframe the‘bigger picture
but this development is currently being reconsidered in several firms (Daheim and Uerz 2008. This has led to a renewed interest in the institutionaalisatio of forward-looking intelligence,
The fast pace of technological change and the complexity of its societal repercussions make the interpretation of contextual developments very difficult.
and constraints imposed by novel developments such as the current economic and financial crisis. However, the coordination mode of governance that seems to be on rise in Europe see for instance the debates on European Innovation Partnerships
whether or not these types of developments will be sufficient to cope with the challenges of transformative and disruptive changes.
and adapt these in view of the latest world developments. In this context, it is imperative that foresight initiatives to address global challenges are carried out at regular intervals to build a common understanding of current situatiion
Salo, A. and Kuusi, O. 2001)‘ Developments in parliamentary technology assessment in Finland',Science and Public policy, 28: 453 64.
Coping strategies and policy implications',World Development, 31: 1087 102. Taleb, N. N. 2007) The Black swan:
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