but need to gain a good appreciation of possible future developments, particularly given the uncertainties around the dynamics and impacts of grand challenges.
The purpose of its current foresight exercise is to explore the potential development of international science over the next two decades in a changing economic, social, political and environmental context.
To this end, the conduct of the foresight exercise has been synchronized closely with the development of the ICSU strategic plan 2012 7 (ICSU 2011a)
and the UN Development Programme (UNDP) as cosponsors, subsequently joined by the International Fund for Agricultural Development.
The International Geophysical Year (IGY) in 1957 8 was the first large-scale international field study.
Regional initiatives, particularly the development of a transnational European research area, are having a signifiican effect on international science cooperation (European commission 2008.
1 The New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD) may provide the impetus for a similar cooperative effort in that region.
The exercise set out to map the long-term uncertainties of developments around international science cooperation with a view to building greater agility vis-a vis disruptive change.
together with an exploration of possible future developments that might offer opportunities or threats to ICSU.
and presented as a‘general context'to developments over the coming 20 years. In addition, a further 13 key drivers, for which trends are much more uncertain,
The future preferences of states on socioeconomic development models will impact on international science. The present range of options extends from market-based economies to stronger developmental state intervention to communism,
which may in turn lead to the development of a strongly multipolar world of regional blocs.
and are meant to encourage the development of strategies that are appropriate to a variety of circumstances,
'Phase 3 saw the exercise shift its focus from preparing exploratory scenarios to the development of Engaged National Global Detached Science for sale in a global market place Globalism driven largely by multinationals An international division
Furthermore, as part of its Initiative On earth System Sustainability, 2012 22, ICSU worked with funding agencies to encourage the development of internatioona courses targeted at developing the ability of young researchers to conduct interdisciplinary research.
and formed the basis for the development of many new international science networks, both North South and South South.
Because of these developments, in the 2000s it has become more common to talk about systemicity in the context of science, technology and innovation (STI) policies.
This visual emphasis enables the use of roadmaps as crystallized strategy maps that open up a simultaneous perspective on both the macro-level currents and on the corresponding micro-level developments (Blackwell et al. 2008.
The aim of TM is to connect micro-scale technical niches into macrosccal landscape developments through the middle-scale of a socio-technical regime (Geels 2004:
and development activities realized by multiple actors. A joint vision can direct these interlinked activities towards joint goals
and link them with emerging technological and industrial development. Systemic change can be facilitated through different policies, e g. regulation and taxes,
The key idea of a transformation roadmap is to connect the development of technologies and innovations to a wider societal sphere.
The third level is sectoral development, with an emphasis particularly on emerging solutions, and on anticipated convergence and disruptions.
with a primary focus on technologies that enable the sectoral development. Fig. 2 presents the subset of a systemic transformation roadmap, the technology roadmap.
In the first level, technology-based solutions, specific developments of technological solutions are depicted on a level that is assessed as necessary.
Commonly, one focuses on technologies that endorse the development of the solutions, but in some cases it is also possible to map the convergence of enabling technologies.
organizations and institutions that are perceived as important in the development of the technology. There are basically three ways to build roadmaps.
instruments and regulatory changes Sectoral development: new solutions, convergence, disruptions Key enablers: opportunities based on emerging technologies Technology roadmap 2 Technology roadmap n Figure 1. Generic structure of systemic transformation roadmap. 182.
The development of the IPRM method, still an ongoing process, is an outcome of several projects realized at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland.
segments, geography Capabilities, resources, actors (CRA) CRA developments 2 CRA developments 3 CRA developments 4 Figure 2. Generic structure of technology roadmap.
instruments and regulatory changes Sectoral development: new solutions, convergence, disruptions Enabling technologies Energy-efficiency requirements, energy price and availability;
but should be offset by demandorieente innovation policy measures such as smart regulatiio and public procurement. 4. 2. 3 Sectoral development.
In this roadmap, sectoral development is divided into the themes of market and solutiions The present markets are fragmented and emphasiiz suboptimization by price.
development of ICTS will focus on product model technologies linking design, building, operation and real-time EMS.
and to offer an outlook of the potential developments of green ICT based on VTT's technological competence.
instruments and regulatory changes Sectoral development: solutions, convergence, disruptions Key enablers Technology roadmap 2: Extending natural resources Technology roadmap 3:
Furthermore, basic demand-side policies, like public procureement can be utilized in the context of green ICT as well as economic incentives. 5. 3. 3 Sectoral development.
Historically, research policies have emerged through development paths that reflect the societal contexts of their path-dependent technoinstittutiona co-evolution.
In last two decades systemic challenges in research and innovation have lead to the development of systemic Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 195 instruments for better preparedness, co-ordination and integrratio of research and innovation systems
Development and Deployment co-operation (including currency issues) Lack of networks/no European structures to coordinate co-operation in programme area Geographic distance Policy to achieve national priorities through internal capacity
scenarrio for long-term urban developments, an improved understanding of future trends and research needs, first concepts and recommendations for policy measures, a strengthening of the European research and innovation communities,
and an Urban Europe exchange platform. 32 Despite the fact that these forums are designed not expliccitl for the anticipation of long-term future developments,
and access to research programmes and results across all countries Mapping and analysis of existing foresight exercises for urban regions and for other non-region specific topics relevant for urban development allows gaps
to be identified where additional foresight exercises may be needed Development of an SRF that sets out likely directiion of technological
therefore Development of scenarios, desirable futures and pathways towards these futures for specific Urban Europe topics Use of a pilot call to improved understanding of future trends
and research needs beyond initial analysis Development of scenarios for long-term urban developments Establishment of an UEF,
Temporal co-ordination can be enhanced by foresight through the joint development of a vision for the future and of a roadmap towards it,
it may also be useful to explore the development of common expert pools for different instruments for transnational research programming..
and the development of joint knowledge repositories (see for instance the European foresight Platform). 34 Furthermoore foresight plays particularly a relevant role in learning on future developments in the areas where there is little
systematic exchange of information and good practices on existing programmes and activities. identification and analysis of common strategic issues. planning and development of joint activities between national and regional programmes. implementation
'9. This platform aims at supporting the process for develoopin national/regional innovation strategies for smart specialisation that support the development of well-performing national or regional research and innovaatio systems,
'Working Paper SLPTMD (Department of International Development, University of Oxford.<<http://economics. ouls. ox. ac. uk/14015/>accessed 15 march 2012.
OECD. 2003)‘ Policy coherence',Public Governance and Territorial Development Directorate, GOV/PUMA (2003) 4. Paris:
It may even be used as a highly evidence-based source to provide plausible discontinuities in the development of scenarios.
‘warnings (external or internal), events and developments that are still too incomplete to permit an accurate estimation of their impact
and also a body of additional signals that are considered to be indicative of the start or development of their emergence.
For the scientists in the labs these developments cause many problems because:..the speed of communication is ahead of the sheer time needed to think
and the interpretation of resulting clusters as an important step towards the coordinated development of joint policy measures.
By building on the encouraging experiences of this exercise, we outline methodological steps in support of comparable scanning processes which facilitate the incremental development of crosscutting challenges
But one can also argue that the very remit of horizon scanning is to challenge the mindsets of esteemed incumbents whose perceptions may reflect well-established evidence rather than surprising interpreetation of incipient developments (Taleb 2007.
for instance may allow new meanings (Nonaka 1994) to be synthesized through the shared development of crosscutting challennges From a methodological perspective, internet-based tools for continuous idea generation (Graefe et al. 2010), idea management
participatory workshop activities offer policymakker an inspiring environment where they can openly discuss the implications of alternative future developments for policy-making in general as well as for their own responsibilities in particular.
so fragmented that it does not lead to the development of overarching policy agendas, expressed as coherent and crosscutting challenges that can be 224.
Overall, the collaborative development of crosscutting challenges may help reframe the‘bigger picture 'whose exploration paves way for policy coordination and the attainnmen of systemic policy objectives (Schoen et al. 2011).
by doing so, foster the development of joint policy measures without necessitating potentially time-consuming and cumbersame changes in existing organizational structures and practices (Anderson 2005).
as a means of preparing for the development of the Europe 2020 strategy and related policy initiatives such as the EC Communication on the Innovation Union.
Indeed, the resulting list may appear fragmennte and lead to the development of piecemeal and possibly even conflicting action plans.
They made use of different trend lines from historical data and identified longlasstin developments, sometimes in combinations of more than one line, with large impacts that were identified additionally.
The Millennium Development Goals as a focus for action (see also Cuhls 2008 and citations there are listed in Table 1. These targets
The State of the Future reports that are published every year take stock of these permanent challenges and report on the developments:
These developments were addressed directly in the Fraunhofer foresight process at that time (Klingner et al. 2008. 2. 1. 5 Fifth example.
partnership for development Target 12 Develop further an open, rule-based predictable non-discriminatory trading
and financial system (includes a commitment to good governance, development, and poverty reduction, both nationally and internationally) Target 13 Address special needs of least developed countries (includes tariff
and more generous official development assistance for countries committed to poverty reduction) Target 14 Address special needs of landlocked developing countries and small island developing states (through Program
development and evaluation of new therapies for chronic skin diseases (b) Sterihealth: reducing the potential infection in hospitals, doctor's offices and care of the aged by new technologies for highly efficient on-site sterilisation.
VTT, the Finnish research organisation, has a rather centralised research and technology development portfolio development. Although VTT is a governmental agency
noncommercial organisation investing the profits of its projects in new research, scientific equipment and competence development.
energy consumption results in resource depletion The development of alternative energies, revival of nuclear energy, decreasing consumption of resources Climate change Slowing climate change through political processes, additional stress caused by population growth and wealth
Other institutes were involved often quite late in the development and formulation of the problem-solving process.
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