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and visualisation techniques as supporting tools for FTA especially to assess technological development in the short term.
environmental and ethical concerns related to scientific and technological developments has led to a strengthening of participatory and constructive approaches 8, 9. Here,
The engagement of RTD stakeholders from all the countries was a prerequisite for identifying research issues that reflected relevant scientific and technological developments, on one hand,
Although these approaches largely failed, due to the inbuilt simplification of the actual dynamics of social, economic and technological developments, some studies nevertheless provoked a lively discussion about the future 14
For the field of lab-on-a-chip there is a general agreement of four consecutive phases of technological development (see Fig. 1). Currently most developments still remain in phase 2. 15 http://www. ornl. gov/sci
and studentconsumerrism'technological development (offering new opportunities, and in the meantime putting extra burdens on the already tight budgets of universities);
Besides technological development decision-makers need all-inclusive knowledge of future developments of society, economy and impacts of science and technology.
and actual technological development. Political decision-making takes place in an environment characterized by ambiguity of problems and a multitude of conflicting interests between different stakeholders,
while technological development tends to be oriented very mission. Technology barometer aims at a contribution to related national discussion.
and codification of the research and technological development needed for the creation of desirable artifacts. There are parallels here with the events that surrounded the success of gene-splicing in the early 1970s.
Change 75 (2008) 517 538.7 A. Rip, J. Schot, Identifying loci for influencing the dynamics of technological development, in:
Paper Series, Working Paper#08.19,2009. 18 H. van Lente, Promising Technology The Dynamics of Expectations in Technological developments.
Policy 6 (1)( 1977). 21 H. van Lente, A. Rip, Expectations in technological developments: an example of prospective structures to be filled in by agency, in:
a significant difference between today's knowledge-based economies and the industrial economies of 30 or 50 years ago is that technological development has become crucial for economic development
Modern societies have a strategic interest in research and technological development, and governments have an interest in the overall priorities of national expenditure on these areas.
The context is not related to any particular understanding of science or technological development but to powers and political interests in the affected areas of science and technology;
and technological development are unpredictable; in this sense it is almost a Mode 1 understanding of science and technology;
the dynamics of expectations in technological developments. Phd diss. University of Twente. Van Notten, P. 2005.
Fig. 2 profiles one company's activity in this case for one technological development domain, SOFCS. Other variants of company profiling might compare the company's activities across technologies,
In parallel with addressing regulatory aspects, the European union (EU) included in its Fifth Framework programme for Research and Technological development (FP5:
and apply an effective systemic understanding of the interplay of major social and technological developments. Despite the phenomenal complexity of the contemporary world, there are possibilities for such individuals
and related techniques will allow for enhanced use of new IT in scanning for scientific and technological developments and their implications.
7. 1. FTA for public decision making Actors affected by innovation processes ought to be involved more in technological development,
what kinds of governance is needed to permit actors external to the innovation processes to become more actively involved in technological development,
and by, technological developments in different areas; the most important of which might be the energy sector and the development of information and communication technologies.
indirectly (by means of the involved actors), seeks to influence the technological development at stake. By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment
This originates from the fact that the early phases of technological development show a great deal of fluidity and open ends,
However, changing/controlling the technological development becomes extremely difficult. This dilemma highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of technological developments even at very early stages.
This implies that when this understanding becomes sufficient, the course of development might be altered (controlled)
For technological development this notion then relates to the very early stages of technological development. These situations inherently have to deal with high uncertainties 2,
tracing emerging irreversibilities The basic claim is that a contribution to the understanding of the emergence of technological paths can be expected by understanding the role of emerging irreversibilities in technological development.
9. Expectations have important roles in technological development. Since all involved actors scientists, firms, policy makers have to act under the condition of insufficient information,
How are the technological developments from the scientific viewpoint taken up by society? How are the technological developments from the market viewpoint taken up by society?
What are, from a market point of view, the different options and focus points? What are the results of private companies that contribute to the realization of the technology?
Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements Reports that translate technological developments into market potentials Articles addressing the market potentials of technological developments Press releases of individual firms Articles that address the developments
Many different types of CTA exist depending on the audience, phase of technological development, etc. Nevertheless, the leading idea is to anticipate on societal aspects in an early stage of technological development to get better societal embedded technology 34.
By striving to play an active role in the 15 The first dedicated technology assessment organisation was the Office of Technology assessment (OTA)( founded in 1972.
In general, CTA studies aim at assessing technological development in an active way in order to maximise the societal embedding of the new technology.
and help to trace emerging irreversibilities in the early phases of technological development. Acknowledgements The authors of this paper would like to thank Arie Rip, Ruud Smits, Ulrich Fiedeler and Nik Brown for their valuable comments.
the dynamics of expectations in technological development. Dissertation, Delft: Eburon, 1993.11 B. Latour, Science in Action, Open University Press, Milton Keynes, 1987.12 OECD, Technology and the economy:
and anticipating on prospective technological developments. He holds MS degrees in Applied Physics with a specialisation in Materials Science,
and project long-term social, economic and technological developments and needs. 2. Vision. Foresight elaborates a guiding strategic vision,
Especially this exercise is expected to deliver more knowledgeable and thus reliable perspectives about the interdependences between scientific and technological developments, internal and external challenges and products or applications than many other approaches.
and perspectives from people who are involved usually not in the technological development process at an early stage may be an additional advantage.
Nanotechnology is considered mainly as one of the technological developments to have far-reaching impacts on the industries of this century.
which see the main challenges as being rooted in societal rather than scientific-technological developments. Linstone points to the dynamic,
and technological developments actors continuously and explicitly refer to what is possible in the future: they draw from
According to the sociology of expectations, this general future orientation is in particular present in technological development. A central theme is that expectations are statements that do something,
In most other cases of technological development, expectations are less coercive, but still forceful (Brown, Rappert, and Webster 2000).
and strategies A general assumption is that expectations can play such a big role due to the inherent uncertaiint of technological development (Antonelli 1989).
thus inspire new technological developments that subsequently have to be protected by other expectations, for instance provided by roadmaps or other foresight results.
to steer technological development. Asimilar steering effect of expectations is also central in studies of Leitbilder,
The dynamics of expectations in technological developments. Phd thesis (University of Twente), Delft: Eburon. Van Lente, H. 2000.
The current approach of applying information visualization tools to the analysis of the LDRD portfolio enables a comprehensive assessment of the technological development trends occurring within our IAS.
which technological development can be interpreted: at one end of the continuum there is technology as a mere object (a solution),
Expectation for innovation through scientific and technological development is building up in this situation, and many countries have shown a clear tendency to place special focus on science and technology policy in their innovation strategies.
and technological development was mentioned first clearly in the Third Basic Plan. Against the backdrops mentioned above,
B scenario reveals the social impact of technological development and the required social conditions toward addressing the challenges;
or technological development and social benefit coming from it, which shows that the comprehensive view of science
Forward-looking Projects are designed to map out scientific and technological developments over a period of ten to 15 years in specific areas
Drawing on the joint assessments of potential economic social and technological developments, elements for a coherent vision were created in the workshop by the experts.
Technological development and Innovation (RTDI) programmes hitherto has focused on economic competitiveness in an increasingly globalised business environment.
7. Technological development; and 8. Resources. A list of themes, drivers and trends is provided in Table III.
mobility and higher education Learning as a lifelong behaviour Vocational skills gaps Technological development Converging technologies The increasing pace of technological change Technology platforms Open innovation models Death of intellectual property?
They suggested considering multiple indicators to measure technological development and to make business decisions. Usually, patent application activity is tracked as a TLC indicator for the S-curve analysis 10,12, 13.
Rev. 1 (1989) 38 43.12 W. Y. Zhou, Probe into the research of the electric technological development trend of plasma display with the patent index, Ph d. dissertation, Chung
and technology assessment 1. In their own ways each of these approaches is used for analyzing technological developments and their potential consequences.
and optimize technological development Allows minimizing inconsistencies and defining areas for innovation Weak on complexity of socio-technological systems Evolutionary Interaction Engage in sustainable pathways enabling transformations of innovation systems Allows a systemized negotiation process linking a variety of social actors
Moreover, its thematic focus fields reflect external developments of the market and technological developments. The organizational build up basically a businesslike setup that includes a supervisory board with representatives from the partner organizations
Mcluhan Tetrad Model) Define priority areas for technology policy Survey national technological development Stimulate development in priority areas of technology development and research;
It emphasizes producctiv interactions between previously separate fields of research and technological development. Such shifts can result in new technological possibilitiies with potentially revolutionary impacts associated with changing innovation patterns, industry structurres and broader developments in society.
and social groups when it comes to giving meaning to technological development (Haddon et al.,2005; Lievrouw, 2006.
Strategic foresight for the National Council for Scientific and Technological development (CNPQ. 3. The value of out-of-the-box thinking in a foresight exercise The concept of out-of-the-box thinking adopted in this paper is related to learning organization theory (Tosey 2005.
Schwaag Serger, S. and Breidne, M. 2007) China's 15-year plan for scientific and technological development a critical assessment, Asia Policy, 4: 135 64.
SPRU, University of Sussex. van Lente, H. 1993) Promising technology, the dynamics of expectations in technological development',Phd thesis, University of Twente. von Hippel, E. 2005
and the analysis of the wider societal setting and to enable systematic analysis of future-oriented ideas that could spring either from technological development, policy practices or more generic societal development.
The aim is to endorse the formation of policy conclusions based on an in depth understanding of the technological developments and their socioeconomic frameworks.
The raw material may be different observations about topics such as scientiifi and technological developments within various areas, and may be obtained from research papers, laboratory results, dissemination about new theories, experiments, prototypes etc.
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