| New technique (9) |  |
| Quantitative technique (4) | |
| Technique (329) | |
| New technique (9) | |
| Quantitative technique (4) | |
| Technique (329) | |
when and in what combination with other techniques. One of the main issues introduced was methodology selection and the perennial conflict between the search for methodological perfection and ease of implementation.
and voices This session concentrated on the combination of expert opinion with qualitative techniques. There was no discussion of data based systems
A wide range of F. Scapolo/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 1060 techniques and tools were used in complex combinations
which was highlighted, was the tendency to compensate for difficulty in handling combined techniques by narrowing the scope of the study
In addition to a complex combination of techniques two contributions addressed the broadening of well-established quantitative methods to mesh with qualitative methods.
manipulation techniques and related problems and threats. The issue of how to make available the information being created in FTA EXERCISES brought out diverse opinions varying from concerns with intellectual property rights and exploitation of the resources to exponents of open source approaches to such information.
failing to use available techniques to encourage culture change in stakeholder organisations and creating a much greater digital divide by over-restriction of access to available information. 5. What's the use?
This session was devoted to the issues of evaluation of FTA and its techniques and processes.
visions and techniques will challenge current evaluation processes and ideas. Evaluation also serves to highlight the role of FTA as learning processes for stakeholders
and combinations of different techniques to build effectively strategic intelligence. Other developments deal with reducing the domain of unknowable that play an important role when dealing with the future
The second paper by Porter illustrates a technique to carry out quick empirical technology analyses based on wide availability of rich science
One of the main advantages of this technique (i e. QTIP-Quick Technology intelligence Processes) is that it allows the conducting of a certain technology analysis within only a few days
instead than few months by taking advantage of four factors enabling the QTIP technique: instant database access, analytical software, automated routines,
and toolbox of techniques to ensure that outcomes can be taken up in the decision-making process. The first contribution from van Merkerk and Van Lente, describes a methodology to map
and visualisation techniques as supporting tools for FTA especially to assess technological development in the short term.
Socio-technical knowledge base, i e. the entirety of the distributed knowledge that is available to the different actors;
29 Obviously, these manual techniques can also be replaced or enhanced by the use of electronic workshop tools. 30 After discussions in plenary and possibly syndicate work,
to the identification of new socio-technical options, to the growing knowledge and understanding of their impacts, to the design of new types of policy options and to their integration into portfolios.
The Approach of Strategic Niche Management, Spon Press, London, 2002.26 R. Kemp, J. Rotmans, The management of the co-evolution of technical
Apart from foresight methodologies, his main research interests are in the governance of research and innovation systems, in the transformation of large socio-technical systems towards sustainability
In technical terms, RPM Screening is based on an additive preference model where the overall value of an issue is expressed as the weighted sum of its criterion-specific scores.
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-20137-EN, Seville, 2002.12 H. Prange, Technology and innovation policiers in the European systemofmulti-level
The New approach, defined in a Council Resolution of May 1985, represents an innovative way of technical harmonisation.
The European standards bodies have the task of drawing up the corresponding technical specifications meeting the essential requirements of the directives, compliance with
One rather new indicator 21 are released technical standards by formal standardisation bodies. Since standardisation is a kind of industry self regulation,
because standards and regulations contain technical, strategic and legal aspects together and most experts in organissation cover just one dimension.
like the environment or in services 46.3 In contrast to the other obstacles, like technical or cost problems,
In the first section, the respondents were asked to assess a selection of future technical and business developments taken from the Seventh Japanese Technology foresight Report 48,
the scenario technique is an appropriate methodology, since often the regulatory option ranges between massive interventions in the market and doing nothing in a liberal laissez-faire policy style.
These dynamics can be explained by the concept of socio-technical path 31,32: multiple actors follow their own paths-as-strategies towards a future of possible (if competing,
The shared direction of search processes adds up to what they term as a technical trajectory at the sector level:
and path creation are combined in a research line in S&t studies around the notion of socio-technical paths 31,32, 41.
and looks at sociotechhnica paths as emerging as outcomes of actor alignments within and across multilevels. 13 Researchers working with the concept of socio-technical paths have recently taken up the notion of emerging irreversibilities.
Increasing alignment and entanglement in the concept of socio-technical paths can be linked to emerging irreversibilities 2, 41,44 48.
They can be defined as‘socio-technical entanglements which over time enable and constrain alignments and activities of persons,
the patchwork of emerging irreversibilities become part of the affordance structure that shapes ongoing dynamics within the socio-technical path.
and entanglements. 2. 2. The models of path used in this project For this project we draw on the notion of socio-technical path in its two forms:
paths as macro-level paradigms characterised by socio-technical alignments and entanglements; and path as micro-level actor strategies projected towards a future paradigm. 11
Similarly, socio-technical paths become doable when there is alignment. 14 This is in keeping with the'actants'notion as network nodes in Actor-Network theory 49.522 D. K. R. Robinson,
In the case of cell-on-a-chip this notion of path can be taken as a projected socio-technical path in the overall field of cell-on-a-chip, where current projections,
activities and search heuristics add up to an emerging socio-technical path. We emphasise the emerging part to it
since a socio-technical path can only occur when there is multiple alignment across and between levels (c. f. Fujimura 43 and Rip and Robinson 32).
In 1993, Harrison and Manz 52 reported on a breakthrough regarding the successful miniaturisation of the analytical technique of capillary electrophoresis,
techniques or devices. Examples could be a microfluidic channel, a fluid mixing system, a sample injector, positioner, sensor etc.
MPM-1) the technical dimension of the MPM was based on desk research as a map to be used for the Frontiers network to aid strategy articulation in research and science-to-industry linkages,
technical dimension Lab-on-a-chip specifically for cell analysis is particularly relevant for Frontiers research lines due to its focus on instrumentation based on nanotechnologies for the life sciences.
Fig. 2). Thus our first aim with the FTA project was to prospect possible socio-technical paths based on projections of the relevant communities involved in research
For Frontiers, the abilities to map possible emerging socio-technical paths and use them to direct the portfolio of research lines within the network would be attractive (management issue 1 see Section 1). In addition,
and techniques being attempted or planned within each functional area. Examples for selection of cell would include optical manipulation of cells in microfluidic devices
Any cell analysis technique Fig. 3. Technological multi-path map for cell-on-a-chip (Bioreactor 57). 527 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp
In the future, drug delivery could be based on socio-technical entanglements created around multiple cell analysis. These entanglements would be based on,
The Figure also implies that, from a technical point of view, the future path of drug delivery can
which redefines an application area as a socio-technical path. In order to really change a paradigmatic path
in order to evaluate and assess possible paths within the prospective socio-technical paths. To this end, we used socio-technical scenarios to house some of the more detailed path dynamics
and issues that came from interviews and desk research (on socio-technical scenarios in general see Geels 64 and Elzen et al. 65,66).
These scenarios in themselves contained reliable information on the current situation and selected prospective chronologies of innovations in cell-on-a-chip (rather than possible choices to go for.
microfabrication and nanotechnology tools for cell analysis and (2) start-up companies and small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMES) relating to specific cell analysis techniques and lab-on-a-chip technology.
and technical challenges to be placed side by side with the goal of prospecting innovation chains. In this case we left the technical steps in the chain as part of the axis
whilst the content of the map focused on organizational arrangements and roles of actors at different stages of the chain.
The idea of a generic platform is contended still (this contention was included in one of the three socio-technical scenarios)
Salient issues of the management of socio-technical aspects of this particular innovation chain were highlighted also.
Multi-path mapping allows one to bring technical and organizational perspectives of path emergence and dynamics together in one related space.
The MPM-2 project involved a collective mapping of projected actor strategy paths (or actors'paths-into-the-future) and a reflection on the future socio-technical path or entanglements
however beneath these projections complex socio-technical arrangemeent and dynamics which will enable or constrain some of these actor strategy paths could be brought into view.
Through analysis of socio-technical scenarios, emerging paths and emerging irreversibilities in the field of research can be anticipated
Manag. 40 (5 september October 1997) 48 55.8 D. E. Hussey, Glossary of techniques for strategic analysis, Strateg.
Manag. 46 (2 march April 2003) 27 30.18 D. Rigby, Management tools and Techniques: A survey, Calif. Manage.
Rev. 43 (2)( Winter 2001) 139 160.19 D. Rigby, C. Gillies, Making the most of management tools and techniques:
32 A. Rip, D. K. R. Robinson, Socio-technical paths as a multilevel phenomenon, exemplified in the domain of nanotechnology,
K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 capital as key factors underpinning the more technical features of the knowledge-based economy and the realisation of a‘knowledge society'.
From a socio-technical perspective Molina 28 studied networks and alignments in large-scale European projects using the‘socio-technical constituencies'12 approach of organisational behaviour theory.
He claims constituencies differ from communities and networks, because these refer to people or institutions alone,
Socio-technical alignment comes into play when technical and social factors and actors come together in a close or loose interaction.
Common interests, empathy and complementarity create alignment within a constituency, whereas tensions and disharmony in a constituency create misalignment
e g. the alignment of potential technological solutions within the emerging constituency and widely recognised technical
and 12 Socio-technical constituencies are defined as dynamic ensembles of technical and social constituents machines, instruments, institutions,
and widely recognised technical and market trends and standards; or between the‘inside'players and other players such as suppliers, users, consumers;
albeit modern management techniques are taught, not applied for themselves; and evaluation of the efficiency and impacts of their activities would be perceived as a burden.
They would also apply modern management techniques to improve performance, together with evaluation methods, understood as a useful tool,
Foresight is among these techniques, and it offers additional advantages, too, and thus it is recommended to use this particular approach to underpin strategies for universities.
The papers and technical notes assembled from the 2008 FTA Conference were selected carefully and further nurtured to bring out three key themes:
Of all the papers and a technical note included in this Special Edition, probably the most challenging and innovative for policy makers and FTA PROCESS designers is Scott Cunningham's Analysis for Radical innovation.
if this technique can be developed more widely conjures up exciting possibilities for the anticipation of future innovation system developments.
In addition to the key papers, the technical note of Greg Tegart on Energy and nanotechnologies: Priority areas for Australia's future features an excellent case example of the importance and learning being experienced from the application of novel FTA METHODOLOGIES to explore the possibilities offered by the use of nanotechnologies to contribute to new and improved approaches to energy conversion,
Therefore new techniques are needed for analyzing technology architecture. This implies a renewed dedication to alternative exploratory modeling,
robustness analysis and many of the other similar tools referenced below in the papers and a technical note.
Received 17 november 2008 Accepted 15 july 2009 This paper examines a technique suitable for monitoring and analyzing systemic change in technology.
Therefore, new techniques are needed for analyzing technology architecture. A literature review of related work in the field of technology opportunities analysis is presented.
Hierarchical random graphs Architectural innovation Technology forecasting Design 1. Introduction This paper examines a technique suitable for monitoring
Therefore, new techniques are needed for analyzing technology architecture. The work is significant because the analysis of a very significant feature of technological change the recombination of existing components is not being supported by most technology opportunity analysis techniques.
A literature review of related work in the field of technology opportunities analysis is presented. A case study of new technology architecture in the information technology domain is presented.
New techniques for managing the fundamental uncertainty in technological design and evolution are needed therefore. Previous work has provided technology analysts with a set of techniques for both integrating and decomposing new technologies.
Relevant research has approached the problem of forecasting radical technological change with methods for supporting analysis for both decomposition and integration of new technologies.
For the decomposition of technologies, morphological analysis has long been practiced as a technique for recognizing component technologies.
In this paper we examine techniques for exploring emergent structures or architectures of technology. Consider a knowledge base of technology where components of technologies are described
New future-oriented technology analysis techniques, such as the approach suggested here, may contribute to the process and management of radical innovation 17,18.
therefore, are techniques for extracting these networks, and accurately structuring the knowledge so that it can be used for analysis, design and forecasting.
which can be tested through the use of machine learning techniques. These concepts are explored further in this paper with a case exploring a software technology known as AJAX.
analysts should avail themselves of a wide variety of techniques appropriate for the task at hand. 3. Methodology In the following section we develop an analytical method for the representation of emerging technologies in the form of a hierarchical graph.
Extensive technical details of this data structure are available in the literature on complex networks. A literature on hierarchical random graphs,
We see to complement the technical literature with the following interpretive and example-oriented discussion of the methodology.
Nonetheless, a systematic technique for searching through the space of models is still necessary. A Monte carlo simulation provides a systematic search process which guarantees several desirable properties.
Ajax is therefore a particularly good test bed to test new techniques for anticipating architectural innovation. Recognition of this architecture grew only once the component technologies were given the Ajax name 26.
and more narrowly defined technical concepts For instance Ajax is placed at the highest level, along with general purpose technologies such as web servers, Javascript and object-oriented computer science.
Thus, the hierarchical random graph approach may provide a new forecasting, analysis and design technique for architectural innovation.
We have argued in this paper that many previous technology forecasting techniques have focused only on incremental and dominant designs.
Particularly needed are new techniques for anticipating architectural innovation: an important component of radical innovation. The consequences ignoring of radical innovation are high.
Claim Claimant Data Scientific and technical knowledge consists of a set of interdependent claims Popper 31 Networks of knowledge can be structured readily from science
and technology databases using techniques such as hierarchical random graphs Knowledge claims are heterogenous in character Derrida 32 Networks built upon science
%1146 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 Techniques such as the link prediction algorithm described here might assist in radical innovation processes by providing rapid
diverse elements, only some of which relate directly to technical objects. Some knowledge is directly accessible,
the technique did appear to anticipate significant standards setting activity, as well as presaging a significant reorganization of the science and technology database to better match technological progress.
This technique (and other techniques like it) may see application in open innovation, or the mode 2 of future knowledge production.
like the predictability of the socioeconnomi development of the supplied region 1, the predetermination of the technical option,
and the politically set criteria of effective, homogenous and affordable infrastructure services 2. It is fair to say that this socio-technical constellation has been highly successful over the past decades.
(ii) the available technical solutions offer new options to provide infrastructure services in a radically different form;
Relative to Technology foresight, we emphasize the implementation side of socio-technical systems, i e. we want to analyze under which conditions the receptiveness for innovative solutions could be increased,
As the sustainability of the established technical system has raised some criticism 9, 10, new solutions to urban water management are discussed more widely today.
Due to the long life time of their key technical components and the strong coupling between technological and institutional structures they exhibit strong path dependencies 11.
In the social science literature, the couplings have been described as socio-technical regimes. They consist of rules, standards, scientific knowledge, engineering practices,
Socio-technical regimes create advantages for system development as they tend to reduce the costs of knowledge generation and the political costs of decision making 13.
However, the structure of the socio-technical regime also tends to blind out more radical socio-technical alternatives and favors incremental improvements 1
4, 5. For instance, a historical analysis of the emergence of the currently dominant socio-technical regime in wastewater treatment is elaborated by Geels 14.
Linstone's multiple perspectives approach 35 argues for the enrichment of the traditional technical system's analysis with organizational and personal perspectives.
In particular, we expect that this approach enables decision makers to systematically ponder a broader spectrum of system alternatives (especially those including development options outside the dominant socio-technical regime),
Based on an analysis of technical reports board minutes and stakeholder interviews, they identify the strength
and weaknesses of the prevailing technical and organizational setup to address claims from customers, public, regulatory bodies and the affected environment 62.
Options are regarded as combinations of technical and organizational system characteristics that cover the entire process chain of the infrastructure service 64.
and (iv) profit from new technical options potentially emerging in the course of the lifetime of an infrastructure system.
The sanitation system has limited flexibility to adapt to changing context conditions as its key technical components have a very long life time (e g. sewer system last 80 years,
they are focused on the operation of the technical system rather than on the management of the integrated sanitation system.
The focus of planning processes is mostly based on technical solutions. Fig. 3. Identifying sustainability deficits. 1156 E. Störmer et al./
Except for the cantonal official, all were technical lay people but experienced politicians in the field.
The core team analyzed the prevailing technical and organizational configurations. The technical quality of the wastewater plants was rather high
but the sewerage was ramshackle in certain places. Only two of the organizations were judged as operating efficiently.
In addition to technical and organizational aspects, the core team surveyed the actors in the regional sanitation landscape to select participants for the stakeholder workshops.
In the following step, a set of options was developed by the core team, based on varying technical and organizational characteristics of a future wastewater system:
e g. degree of technical centralization, scope of services offered by the organization (s), and organizational structure.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 the prevailing technical structure and the autonomy of the existing organizations.
The need for increased collaboration or even a technical merger had already been identified earlier. However, it had been formulated as a vague vision that resulted mainly from a technical analysis of the current infrastructure components (unresolved problems in water quality
efficiency of the current wastewater treatment plants, organizational bottle necks in emergency situations, etc..Optimization of the existing system components was the main target and not an analysis of the entire sanitation system.
One consequence was departed that decision makers from their initially strong position that only one big technical system was able to solve all future problems in the region.
Instead, a broader range of options, even including radically different socio-technical configurations, was taken actually into consideration.
We argued that due to the long life times of key technical components of these sectors
Technol. 43 (5)( 2001) 309 318.11 J. Markard, B. Truffer, Innovation processes in large technical systems:
and techniques: towards a user's guide, Futures 38 (7)( 2006) 723 739.24 A. Marchais-Roubelat, F. Roubelat, Designing action based scenarios, Futures 40 (1)( 2008
and demands of the technical risk analysis as defined in the standard IEC 60300-3-9 20 (see Fig. 3). The prerequisites for a successful risk assessment are:
o data on the system being analysed and on all the associated substances, o operational model of the system under analysis, o systematic hazard identification procedure and risk estimation techniques,
Instead, the whole process should be understood as a complex socio-technical system in order to make the process safe.
but rather as a complex socio-technical entity. However, risk analysis methods have not fully followed the new direction yet;
Although this entire socio-technical compleexit is addressed, the new safety approach does not, however, make traditional risk analysis methods useless.
and technical risk analysis methods lies perhaps mostly on people's experience of using different methods in these two parallel traditions.
and concrete level case studies follow the technical risk assessment tradition. 4. Towards an integrated approach 4. 1. Risk assessment
The core benefit of risk assessment methods is absolutely the strict systemic character of the risk analysis techniques.
in order to be able to be processed by risk analysis techniques. PPA/POA and risk map methods were applied in a foresight process.
In general FTA APPROACH encourages to build new risk analysis techniques which are more capable of taken into consideration the longer time frames than have been common in risk analysis tradition before.
but a socio-technical complex system also interacting with its environment and the whole society. The focus has shifted from positivist
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 will lead to a more organized bscience-likeq field with a theoretical basis. Not only are there many diverse techniques for theorizing,
The quantitative techniques available to us are not yet capable of quantifying risk in ways other than probability.
UK and USA. 2. 2. Computation techniques There is an ongoing discussion of the merits of different techniques applied in indicator-based comparisons
Technology barometer is going to be developed towards an instrument that analyzes innovation systems as far-reaching socioeconomic technical complexes.
Views concerning scientific-and-technical institutions and organizations 4. 3. 3. Views regarding the roles of knowledge and technology in Finnish society
Other institutions like the Technical University of Berlin, the Institute for Nanotechnology (INT) of the Research centre Karlsruhe, the RWTH Aachen, the Austrian Research centres Gmbh (ARC), Systems Research Division Dept
some new foresight and working techniques were applied. In the plenum session, a guided fictive time travel served as a mind opener.
For these, new flexible, sustainable technical infrastructures are required. Productionconsumption 2. 0: technical and organisational concepts have to be integrated
in order to address the critical challenges of the future. This future field needs a new dimension in research on systemic change,
To work out the similarities in different application may be a first step to adapt the instruments and tools in other disciplines so that in the future even in technical and social science contexts,
Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives, EUE 20137 EN, IPTS Technical Report Series, Brussels, 2001.28 K. Cuhls, Foresight in Germany, in:
A Review Of Evaluative Scenario literature, Technical Report 3/2009, Copenhagen, EEA, 2009.3 R. J. Lempert, S. Hoorens, M. Hallsworth, T. Ling, Looking
an overview of techniques, Foresight 9 (1)( 2007) 5 25.9 R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, K. Van der Heijden, The origins
and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures 37 (8)( 2005) 795 812.10 R. J. Lempert, S w. Popper, S. C
M. B. A. van Asselt, Practicing the scenario axis technique, Futures 38 (1)( 2006) 15 30.27 D. Groves, D. Knopman, R. Lempert, S. Berry,
For inclusivity these three questions are interrelated in social, technical, economic, ecological, political and value/norm (acronym STEEPV) aspects of society.
(but not complex) matters 3. Situations with technical difficulty but that are amenable to non-expert study 4. Problems with technical difficulty,
complication and complexity requiring expert training for their comprehension 5. Technical situations bordering on the scientifically unknown
and the journeys that will be taken from idea to technical application well embedded in society. In the field of nanotechnology these challenges are compounded further due to the early stage of nano developments
and broadening the understanding of socio-technical dynamics. Scenarios have often been used to create a synthesis of future-oriented aspects prior to an interactive workshop,
and Arie Rip have termed pre-engagement through socio-technical scenario building 2. It involves the combination of exploration of dynamics using theoretical models
Elements include the convergence and coupling of emerging technical and organisational elements, forks in to a number of potential paths (especially at early stages although forks can be triggered at later stags), deadends, setbacks etc.
The arenas for innovation and selection are shown here as bubbles where each arena represents a particular socio-technical configuration carrying
and being carried by the technical option traversing it. These configurations are entanglements (sometimes regular networks) of many actors,
which journeys through these bubbles. 7 The technology (and its socio-technical network) shifts and reconfigures based on the arenas it encounters,
but does not show details of the socio-technical networks. This is a reduction of complexity.
and is part of a socio-technical network of actors, artifacts and infrastructures which evolve with the innovation.
Constructive technology assessment (Constructive TA) 6 10 as a reflexive strategy articulation support system taking as its starting point ongoing socio-technical dynamics is particularly suitable for such a purpose.
Constructive TA adds to this because of a broader & deeper understanding of socio-technical dynamics. In the case of the Frontiers Noe for nanotechnology, the programme involved research and preparation of these scenarios an input to 1-day multi-stakeholder workshops
and colleagues into a way of framing various ways of assessing technical novelty and its development.
Contrary to many traditional scenario building techniques, these co-evolutionary scenarios do not present mutually exclusive futures. In this way they are similar to the functions of expectations the scenarios can be read
I will then in Section 6 discuss the technique and how it fits into the emerging menu of socio-technical scenarios. 5. An annotated scenario Below is shown a full scenario.
It is difficult to find the best way of annotating the text. Here I insert the comments within the narrative.
Technical complexity becomes an issue. A number of legal actions were filed against medical device companies which in turn causes health insurance companies to withdraw their backing of the devices in their coverage.
and based on expectations analysis and the concept of emerging irreversibilities, show how actors interactions and reactions would co-evolve with the broader IC+landscape. 6. 1. A new member to the socio-technical scenario family
The co-evolutionary scenario approach is a contribution to the growing field of socio-technical scenarios 3. Other members of the family include regime transition scenarios14,
Essays on Power, Technology and Domination, Routledge, London, 1991, pp. 132 161.23 B. de Laat, Scripts for the future technological foresight, strategic analysis and socio technical networks:
Alongside this, he is also a part-time Technical Analyst at the Institute of Nanotechnology (UK) focusing on nanotechnologies in the agrifood sector. 1239 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239
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