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| Quantitative technique (4) | |
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when and in what combination with other techniques. One of the main issues introduced was methodology selection and the perennial conflict between the search for methodological perfection and ease of implementation.
and voices This session concentrated on the combination of expert opinion with qualitative techniques. There was no discussion of data based systems
A wide range of F. Scapolo/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 1060 techniques and tools were used in complex combinations
which was highlighted, was the tendency to compensate for difficulty in handling combined techniques by narrowing the scope of the study
In addition to a complex combination of techniques two contributions addressed the broadening of well-established quantitative methods to mesh with qualitative methods.
manipulation techniques and related problems and threats. The issue of how to make available the information being created in FTA EXERCISES brought out diverse opinions varying from concerns with intellectual property rights and exploitation of the resources to exponents of open source approaches to such information.
failing to use available techniques to encourage culture change in stakeholder organisations and creating a much greater digital divide by over-restriction of access to available information. 5. What's the use?
This session was devoted to the issues of evaluation of FTA and its techniques and processes.
visions and techniques will challenge current evaluation processes and ideas. Evaluation also serves to highlight the role of FTA as learning processes for stakeholders
and combinations of different techniques to build effectively strategic intelligence. Other developments deal with reducing the domain of unknowable that play an important role when dealing with the future
The second paper by Porter illustrates a technique to carry out quick empirical technology analyses based on wide availability of rich science
One of the main advantages of this technique (i e. QTIP-Quick Technology intelligence Processes) is that it allows the conducting of a certain technology analysis within only a few days
instead than few months by taking advantage of four factors enabling the QTIP technique: instant database access, analytical software, automated routines,
and toolbox of techniques to ensure that outcomes can be taken up in the decision-making process. The first contribution from van Merkerk and Van Lente, describes a methodology to map
and visualisation techniques as supporting tools for FTA especially to assess technological development in the short term.
29 Obviously, these manual techniques can also be replaced or enhanced by the use of electronic workshop tools. 30 After discussions in plenary and possibly syndicate work,
the scenario technique is an appropriate methodology, since often the regulatory option ranges between massive interventions in the market and doing nothing in a liberal laissez-faire policy style.
In 1993, Harrison and Manz 52 reported on a breakthrough regarding the successful miniaturisation of the analytical technique of capillary electrophoresis,
techniques or devices. Examples could be a microfluidic channel, a fluid mixing system, a sample injector, positioner, sensor etc.
and techniques being attempted or planned within each functional area. Examples for selection of cell would include optical manipulation of cells in microfluidic devices
Any cell analysis technique Fig. 3. Technological multi-path map for cell-on-a-chip (Bioreactor 57). 527 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp
microfabrication and nanotechnology tools for cell analysis and (2) start-up companies and small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMES) relating to specific cell analysis techniques and lab-on-a-chip technology.
Manag. 40 (5 september October 1997) 48 55.8 D. E. Hussey, Glossary of techniques for strategic analysis, Strateg.
Manag. 46 (2 march April 2003) 27 30.18 D. Rigby, Management tools and Techniques: A survey, Calif. Manage.
Rev. 43 (2)( Winter 2001) 139 160.19 D. Rigby, C. Gillies, Making the most of management tools and techniques:
albeit modern management techniques are taught, not applied for themselves; and evaluation of the efficiency and impacts of their activities would be perceived as a burden.
They would also apply modern management techniques to improve performance, together with evaluation methods, understood as a useful tool,
Foresight is among these techniques, and it offers additional advantages, too, and thus it is recommended to use this particular approach to underpin strategies for universities.
if this technique can be developed more widely conjures up exciting possibilities for the anticipation of future innovation system developments.
Received 17 november 2008 Accepted 15 july 2009 This paper examines a technique suitable for monitoring and analyzing systemic change in technology.
Hierarchical random graphs Architectural innovation Technology forecasting Design 1. Introduction This paper examines a technique suitable for monitoring
because the analysis of a very significant feature of technological change the recombination of existing components is not being supported by most technology opportunity analysis techniques.
Previous work has provided technology analysts with a set of techniques for both integrating and decomposing new technologies.
For the decomposition of technologies, morphological analysis has long been practiced as a technique for recognizing component technologies.
In this paper we examine techniques for exploring emergent structures or architectures of technology. Consider a knowledge base of technology where components of technologies are described
New future-oriented technology analysis techniques, such as the approach suggested here, may contribute to the process and management of radical innovation 17,18.
therefore, are techniques for extracting these networks, and accurately structuring the knowledge so that it can be used for analysis, design and forecasting.
which can be tested through the use of machine learning techniques. These concepts are explored further in this paper with a case exploring a software technology known as AJAX.
analysts should avail themselves of a wide variety of techniques appropriate for the task at hand. 3. Methodology In the following section we develop an analytical method for the representation of emerging technologies in the form of a hierarchical graph.
Nonetheless, a systematic technique for searching through the space of models is still necessary. A Monte carlo simulation provides a systematic search process which guarantees several desirable properties.
Thus, the hierarchical random graph approach may provide a new forecasting, analysis and design technique for architectural innovation.
We have argued in this paper that many previous technology forecasting techniques have focused only on incremental and dominant designs.
and technology databases using techniques such as hierarchical random graphs Knowledge claims are heterogenous in character Derrida 32 Networks built upon science
%1146 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 Techniques such as the link prediction algorithm described here might assist in radical innovation processes by providing rapid
the technique did appear to anticipate significant standards setting activity, as well as presaging a significant reorganization of the science and technology database to better match technological progress.
This technique (and other techniques like it) may see application in open innovation, or the mode 2 of future knowledge production.
and techniques: towards a user's guide, Futures 38 (7)( 2006) 723 739.24 A. Marchais-Roubelat, F. Roubelat, Designing action based scenarios, Futures 40 (1)( 2008
o data on the system being analysed and on all the associated substances, o operational model of the system under analysis, o systematic hazard identification procedure and risk estimation techniques,
The core benefit of risk assessment methods is absolutely the strict systemic character of the risk analysis techniques.
in order to be able to be processed by risk analysis techniques. PPA/POA and risk map methods were applied in a foresight process.
In general FTA APPROACH encourages to build new risk analysis techniques which are more capable of taken into consideration the longer time frames than have been common in risk analysis tradition before.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 will lead to a more organized bscience-likeq field with a theoretical basis. Not only are there many diverse techniques for theorizing,
UK and USA. 2. 2. Computation techniques There is an ongoing discussion of the merits of different techniques applied in indicator-based comparisons
some new foresight and working techniques were applied. In the plenum session, a guided fictive time travel served as a mind opener.
an overview of techniques, Foresight 9 (1)( 2007) 5 25.9 R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, K. Van der Heijden, The origins
and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures 37 (8)( 2005) 795 812.10 R. J. Lempert, S w. Popper, S. C
M. B. A. van Asselt, Practicing the scenario axis technique, Futures 38 (1)( 2006) 15 30.27 D. Groves, D. Knopman, R. Lempert, S. Berry,
Contrary to many traditional scenario building techniques, these co-evolutionary scenarios do not present mutually exclusive futures. In this way they are similar to the functions of expectations the scenarios can be read
I will then in Section 6 discuss the technique and how it fits into the emerging menu of socio-technical scenarios. 5. An annotated scenario Below is shown a full scenario.
and the methods for determining this come from the usual techniques for evaluating scientific merit:
Techniques for analyzing industries and competitors. Newyork: The Free Press. Prahalad, C. K, . and G. Hamel. 1990.
'4 But with the use of techniques like foresight, these processes have been opened up more widely.
to moderated working sessions using a range of techniques to stimulate the creativity and openness of participants (e g. brainstorming and small working groups).
Practising the scenario-axes technique. Futures 38:15 30. Voß, J-P, . and R. Kemp. 2006.
or experimental techniques/objects 47. Complementarity: Research in the domain of N&n is driven industry and science based.
A number of techniques exist, most of which involve some combination of systematic application of criteria with a voting
Some sophisticated techniques exist for decision making, for example the analytical hierarchy approach 11. A review of some of these methods concluded that most are used rarely in practical situations of R&d resource allocation 12.
The model and modelling techniques in use guided the data gathering of the system analysis part. Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of roadmaps and scenarios.
and requirements for development of tools, techniques and principles, for FTA. The challenges of participatory knowledge management are seen to be particularly important ones to tackle. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.*
It is startling how few systematic comparisons have been made about the consequences of employing specific techniques in the course of FTA. 3 It is striking that much of the work collected in Linstone
Similar conflicting forces will affect many smaller-scale FTA ACTIVITIES, in private organisations as well as in the policy sphere. 4 DEMATEL=decision making trial and evaluation laboratory, a structural modelling technique;
and less common techniques such as gaming,(Roughly Horton's subtask (iv).)Analysis and Selection: comparison of alternative futures that have been posited,
The second dimension reflects how far the method involves formal analytic techniques such as statistical trend
as opposed to techniques that are designed to foster creative thinking and explore possibilities that are hard to capture in the more formal techniques.
Some combination of methods that span these dimensions is recommended as helping maximise the scope for FTA to draw on expert knowledge,
which thus called for careful design of the process and the tools and techniques it involved.
The complexity of FTA PROCESSES means that they can involve application of similar techniques for different purposes, at different points in the foresight knowledge cycle.
We may expect to see various types of KM activity taking place during the application of specific techniques.
and related techniques will allow for enhanced use of new IT in scanning for scientific and technological developments and their implications.
The traditional techniques of face-to-face dialogue are not the only way in which we can engage in dialogue, debate, mutual learning,
It still calls for skill and technique good facilitation. And conventional meetings and workshops can benefit from technical support,
not only arise in the highly formal techniques of modelling. The influences of specific procedures (and the‘‘technical''choices made in implementing them) on the outcomes of creativity sessions
Techniques and Applications, Addison-Wesley, Boston, 1975 (available at: http://www. is. njit. edu/pubs/delphibook/delphibook. pdf (accessed 29/07/09)).35 C. W. Choo, The Knowing Organization:
appropriate budget and techniques alone are insufficient to result in foresight program success. To be regarded as successful,
or techniques that originated in other disciplines. Thereby, they provide important insights to an epistemological debate that is based on the premise that qualitative and quantitative methods are hardly reconcilable.
FTA techniques need to embrace different perspectives including those considered impossible now and to provide a holistic view.
therefore, explores selected elements of complexity theory and their implications for FTA techniques, and later derives implications for the application of foresight in policy-making.
Such an understanding is in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique generating oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Therefore
modeling techniques and backcasting) may bring to three specific legal fields: legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement.
While the introduction of FTA TOOLS and techniques to Law is deemed extremely important and useful the paper also draws attention to the problems
Originality/value The paper has a novel approach for structuring FTA techniques that goes beyond the traditional quantitative/qualitative approach.
Several new and practical implications for foresight techniques and their application are derived. Promoting variation is examined as one way to make policies more resilient in a complex system.
Foresight techniques need to be developed to embrace emergence and to provide capabilities such as reframing to visualise systems from very different perspectives,
the derivation of practical implications for foresight techniques is original. Keywords Complexity, Disruptive events, Emergence, Reframing, Variation, Policy making, Complexity theory, Uncertainty management, Strategic planning Paper type Conceptual paper 1. Foresight techniques To date,
foresight techniques (see http://hsctoolkit. tribalhosting. net/The-tools. html for a summary of techniques,
applications and case studies) have developed out of need (see www. andyhinesight. com/category/foresight-2/(accessed August 2011) re practitioner usage);
or rationale, for either foresight or its techniques, Gheorghiou et al. 2008) and Miller (2011. In many ways, foresight techniques also originally arose out of the need to deal with unexpected events in the technology and political arenas, for example the classic Shell scenarios.
More recently the development of techniques for coping with disruptive events, often referred to as wild cards,
has focussed on adapting scenario techniques, Rami'rez and Van der Heijden (2008) or on wild card management, for example that based on weak signal methodologies, Mendonc¸a et al.
2004). ) As complexity theory itself has developed, Mitchell (2009), so has limited some work in the foresight field, Ringland (2010) and Miller and Poli (2010),
but there has been little specific consideration of how foresight techniques need to PAGE 294 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 294-303, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
and some critical thinking provides a way to understand how techniques can work better, be applied better,
This paper will explore some selected elements of complexity theory and their implications for foresight techniques,
The implication is that foresight techniques must be able to embrace emergence and to focus on the idea of interactions rather than constituent parts.
Foresight techniques need to enable practitioners to develop a vision of a system's emergent properties the self-organised behaviour that could result from interactions between the parts. 2. All systems have component agents (taxies,
The implication is that foresight techniques must be able to accommodate changes in the basic rules.
Foresight techniques need to enable a vision of changes in the essential profile of a system. 3. The interactions between the component parts of a complex system
The implication is that foresight techniques need to accommodate phase change situations, accepting that they will happen,
Foresight techniques need to enable visions of phase-changed worlds. Foresight techniques must also accept the likely absence of any early warning signals. 4. Extreme sensitivity to initial conditions.
The starting slate is never clean extremely tiny errors in understanding where the system starts from can send any‘‘forecast''off in totally the wrong direction.
The implication is that foresight techniques need to recognise that a system has a critical history
Foresight techniques need to recognise that everything is part of a system, that there is no‘‘new''starting point,
The implication is that foresight techniques must be able to provide both optimisation and exploration processes to help identify a range of potential future situations and options.
Foresight techniques need to enable practitioners to see the landscape from different perspectives and to generate both optimum and (currently) non-optimum alternative potential strategies and options.
In summary the implications of complexity theory for foresight techniques are that they must: B Enable a vision of a system's emergent properties.
''Some foresight techniques do use Reframing, for example in causal layered analysis, Inayatullah (1990), employs reframing at the deep myth/metaphor level. 4. Results policy making implications We all have our favourite story of a failed
‘‘embracing emergence''can be seen as very different to many FTA techniques. Horizon scanning for example focuses is on the possible results
Similarly with techniques such as trend or driver analysis, and even scenario development, the onus is on a vision of the final outcome,
design, and delivery to explore one example of a complexity-based technique to deal with disruptive events in policy-making Promoting variation.
Promoting variation can provide a response to several of the requirements of foresight techniques identified above in Section 2. For example it can contribute to generating a range of future options and alternative potential strategies through both optimisation and exploration.
It also provides insight into how foresight techniques need to be developed to perform better in complex systems to enable better decision-making and policy making.
and similar techniques can be used 5. See and make linkages with other policies that have similar intent 5. Observe which policies work well
and strengthen those policies VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 301 Foresight methodology Foresight techniques need to be developed to embrace emergence to harness the self-organised behaviour that results from interactions between the parts of a complex system rather than
Foresight techniques must provide policy makers with the ability to generate a range of future options
Policy making needs foresight techniques to enable a vision of the system's emergent properties and also of phase change situations (without early warning signals) and of the resulting changed world.
Policy making must use techniques such as Reframing to visualise systems from very different perspectives including ones not possible now,
Policy making needs Foresight techniques to enable the generation of a range of future options and alternative potential strategies through both optimisation and exploration, including some that sound negative, ludicrous,
they are a meta-technique not just a single method. Scenario is one of the most basic,
e g. on how scenario techniques could deal with long-term goals and path dependences to a more detailed degree.
Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques.
Techniques and Applications, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA. Linstone, H. A. and Turoff, M. 2011),‘Delphi:
In the hybrid solution the lower nanotube is replaced by a semiconducting structure created by common lithography techniques. 12 Then a layer of nanotubes is deposited
The same technique can be used to produce vacuum-tube lamps in different colours that are twice as bright as conventional lightbulbs,
Here, Nantero being the only company working on this technique tries to mature the given technique (proof of principle) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
Nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories Nantero tries to mature the technique (proof of concept) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique that generates oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Research limitations/implications In order to boost the perception of scenario design as an added value instrument for urban planners
In order to reconcile foresight techniques with urban planners, new contributions are needed to reinforce qualitative instruments with quality,
Scenario design is a foresight technique that has been used widely and documented (Godet, 1993; van der Heijden, 1996;
modelling techniques and backcasting) may bring to three specific legal fields: legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement.
While the introduction of FTA TOOLS and techniques to law is deemed extremely important and useful, the paper also draws attention to the problems
and risk, neglecting as a consequence the use of forecasting techniques, foresight methods and technology assessment procedures.
case studies 3. 1 Introduction FTA ACTIVITIES, techniques and research have registered an impressive growth over the past decade.
At a more general level, the increasing availability of information in electronic form and the computing techniques and processes for exploiting such data constitute the most recent methodological developments in the field of FTA.
Through the use of modelling techniques and simulation platforms like the one described above, the anticipation of the future is increasingly being carried out through the advanced tools that help process, search,
moreover, how the techniques used to envision the future have grown in complexity and sophistication. 3. 3. 2‘‘Future-verification''assessments.
In this context, the greatest virtue of the scenario planning technique is not to predict how the future may look like,
Through the use of scenario planning techniques, the future leaves the realm of the unknown and the impossible, transiting to the domain of the Possible future,
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 343 The application of modelling techniques to the legal domain represents a step further in the use of ICT, Artificial intelligence (AI) and other advanced
With the development of modelling techniques and instruments such as the one described above, the impact promises to be even greater.
The combination between these tools (scenario planning, modelling techniques and simulation platforms), as we saw in the Futurict case study,
and simulation platforms to parliamentary activities of lawmaking processes as another example of a FTA technique applied to Law.
and simulation techniques aimed at uncovering future societal, economic and environmental trends. Through the use of modelling instruments, legislators would
Modelling techniques would allow legislators and decision makers to test the prospective impacts and consequences of a given change in legislation.
lawmaking processes would greatly benefit from the use of modelling techniques and other FTA instruments based on ICT procedures.
Based on data mining techniques, intelligence-based tactics and information communication strategies, predictive policing demonstrates that Law,
Future research The introduction of FTA TOOLS and techniques to Law, as this paper attempted to demonstrate,
studying how for example modelling techniques can assist Law without threatening its independence as a fundamental human (and not machine driven) activity. 4. 2. 4 Distinction and legitimacy.
reflecting on the application of fta tools and methods (such as Delphi surveys, scenario planning, backcasting and modelling techniques) to the legal sphere,
the paper demonstrates that Law will need to focus on proactive, future-oriented analysis and techniques. Furthermore, in offering a series of specific cases
Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques:
what constitutes a roadmap and the roadmapping techniques employed 6. T. Fleischer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1116 The term droadmapt is used widely, starting from graphical representations of technology development paths and their application environments up to detailed and ambitious
It has become a widely used technique during the past two decades from the perspective of both individual companies and entire industries.
we consider droadmapt as an umbrella term for a group of techniques that support the structurization of complex interdependent processes
which formal methods and techniques play a subsidiary role following Wittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.
and use foresight practices and techniques for handling environmental uncertainty. He expands the understanding of environmental uncertainty by defining the concept of‘boundary uncertainty,
which formal methods/techniques play a subsidiary role followingwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.
forecasting and technology assessment research techniques of and for their respective communities. Futures studies are omitted. Derrida's comment,
'The direct reference to‘research techniques'accentuates the impression that FTA is approached through an enforced search for techniques to fit perceptions of the work in hand.
However, Wittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'needs to be constantly in mind to prevent any FTA becoming simply an exercise in technique manipulation that prevents any useful outcome.
all have a long history and an equally long and growing catalogue of techniques to use:
and techniques listed and described elsewhere, but to look into the darker corners of the FTA world.
Business studies have developed a set of techniques to assess the future for strategic decisionmakkin (Kappel 2001;
A popular technique is technology roadmapping, which has been used since the 1980s by Motorola and later by many other firms (Willyard and Mcclees 1997), like Philips (Groenveld 1997) and Lockheed martin (Houston and Turner 2001).
it locates products and techniques on the hype cycle (from‘inflated expectations, 'via‘disillusionment'to‘productivity')in order to decide
Hambrick 1982) and to investigate their likely evolution and impact on the organisation (foresight techniques:
and information technology have been regularly applying foresight techniques (Daheim and Uerz 2008; Reger 2001; Rollwagen, Hofmann, and*Email:
However, scholars omitted to investigate thoroughly what kind of foresight techniques and practices should a firm adopt
practices and techniques The challenge of coping with increasing uncertainty encouraged new analytical approaches to decision-making and long-range planning:
and implementation of appropriate techniques for anticipating the likely evolution of drivers of change (state uncertainty), their consequences on the organisation (effect uncertainty),
Roadmaps, 3 scenarios, 4 and strategic options (Dixit and Pindyck 1994) are by far the most popular foresight techniques (Becker 2002;
In this vein, scholars focused on methodological issues regarding how to implement a large number of foresight practices and techniques.
or technique is more appropriate and effective than others. Extant research streams of environmental uncertainty and strategic foresight are aligned not seamlessly.
and appropriateness of different foresight techniques and practices for coping with such conditions of uncertainty. In this way, we try to enhance the use of foresight by practitioners
In this context, traditional techniques such as‘top-down'scenarios (e g. deductive scenarios starting with two key dimensions:
First, these techniques allowed managers to think about the alternative evolutions of drivers of change (state uncertainty) in an organic and systematic way.
In the chemical industry, techniques like scenarios were valuable because they helped managers focus on emerging forces of change.
In the face of boundary uncertainty, it is simply not sensible to use techniques such as scenarios or roadmaps.
A senior manager of Philips emphasised In our business foresight must address an essential prerequisite before using traditional techniques like scenarios:
which is in turn a condition sine qua non for starting to profitably use traditional foresight techniques. Decision-makers facing continuous drivers of change or discontinuous drivers of which they have solved already boundary uncertainty might eventually exploit scenarios
Management tools and techniques: A survey. California Management Review 4, no. 2: 139 60. Rollwagen, I.,J. Hofmann,
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